2024 Bracketology

[Farfromgeneva]

Jebus,

its a race to the bottom this year.

That’s what they say at certain gentlemen’s clubs around Atlanta who carry an “aesthetically narrow” cohort of inventory. A race where the boat is lined with cash.

[10stone5]

What a total mess.

Final price to pay for those disastrous Covid policies,
extra year et al ?

[bearlaxfan]

I guess outside of "what the *&$# is the committee thinking?!?!" this evening the field is pretty set, not including seedings- maybe 2 Ivies, prolly 1.
So, any bracketologists want to play "what if"?

Just 2 changes to the year's outcomes: Maryland loses to Brown. Virginia loses to Richmond.
Any shakeup to the probable field?

[Mr3Putt]

Who wants to play St. Joes in the 1st round? Raise your hand....

Right. Or... BU/Lehigh. Towson looking tough as well. Who am I forgetting? Albany maybe...just Piseno alone...
Go Nova!

I suspect Hopkins will play St. Joe’s or Towson next week.

DocBarrister

It would be an easy situation for the committee. With Towson hosting the Quarterfinals on Sunday 5/19, scheduling Towson @ Hopkins next Sunday. Will see. Certainly a cost saving matchup for the NCAA as well. It is a rematch but that was a full three months ago.

[Ozstriker]

Tell me again why UVA is such an automatic? Yea, I get the RPI, but don’t you at least have to win some of those games, and not just play them? Wins against umd (do we know what they are , btw, from a quality perspective?), Harvard (didn’t make the Ivy tourney) and Mich (who before the Big10 tourney, hadn’t beaten anyone). 1-4 in ACC and have lost 4 straight.

Imagine what their RPI would be if they actually beat someone in the Top 10, and not just played them….

[LaxDownUnder]

Tell me again why UVA is such an automatic? Yea, I get the RPI, but don’t you at least have to win some of those games, and not just play them? Wins against umd (do we know what they are , btw, from a quality perspective?), Harvard (didn’t make the Ivy tourney) and Mich (who before the Big10 tourney, hadn’t beaten anyone). 1-4 in ACC and have lost 4 straight.

Imagine what their RPI would be if they actually beat someone in the Top 10, and not just played them….

I don't see the case for UVA either. If anything, they're one of the few teams I feel has shown that they can't beat the top teams in the country.

Unfortunately for the bubble teams, they're also in a cushy position in the ACC where they can just lean on the RPI formula and fail upwards to a bid (and probably a seed).

[keno in reno]

....and Mich (who before the Big10 tourney, hadn’t beaten anyone).

So the win against Michigan should count less?

[Finster]

Tell me again why UVA is such an automatic? Yea, I get the RPI, but don’t you at least have to win some of those games, and not just play them? Wins against umd (do we know what they are , btw, from a quality perspective?), Harvard (didn’t make the Ivy tourney) and Mich (who before the Big10 tourney, hadn’t beaten anyone). 1-4 in ACC and have lost 4 straight.

Imagine what their RPI would be if they actually beat someone in the Top 10, and not just played them….

I don't see the case for UVA either. If anything, they're one of the few teams I feel has shown that they can't beat the top teams in the country.

Unfortunately for the bubble teams, they're also in a cushy position in the ACC where they can just lean on the RPI formula and fail upwards to a bid (and probably a seed).

Disregarding RPI and SOS, my eye test says Virginia belongs but Maryland doesn’t. Unless McNaney plays on his head, Maryland will just lose their first round game anyway; I’d give that slot to a team that plays to win.

Two other issues: ND has nothing to play for today while Duke might catapult to #2, amazingly. Yet ND plays with pride, so if you’re a Blue Devil, I wouldn’t count your chickens just yet.

Finally, how is Breschi on the committee? You think he’ll easily roll over for a deserving team over Tillman’s team, or Tiffany’s? These guys are friends. I’d rather nominate four Fanlax posters to be the committee. Not even kidding. JoeWillie, wgdsr, Wheels, Keno, and Blue Angel (and a few more in forgetting) seem to know strengths and weaknesses here better than Inside Lacrosse or any other pollster.

[coda]

Tell me again why UVA is such an automatic? Yea, I get the RPI, but don’t you at least have to win some of those games, and not just play them? Wins against umd (do we know what they are , btw, from a quality perspective?), Harvard (didn’t make the Ivy tourney) and Mich (who before the Big10 tourney, hadn’t beaten anyone). 1-4 in ACC and have lost 4 straight.

Imagine what their RPI would be if they actually beat someone in the Top 10, and not just played them….

I don't see the case for UVA either. If anything, they're one of the few teams I feel has shown that they can't beat the top teams in the country.

Unfortunately for the bubble teams, they're also in a cushy position in the ACC where they can just lean on the RPI formula and fail upwards to a bid (and probably a seed).

Disregarding RPI and SOS, my eye test says Virginia belongs but Maryland doesn’t. Unless McNaney plays on his head, Maryland will just lose their first round game anyway; I’d give that slot to a team that plays to win.

Two other issues: ND has nothing to play for today while Duke might catapult to #2, amazingly. Yet ND plays with pride, so if you’re a Blue Devil, I wouldn’t count your chickens just yet.

Finally, how is Breschi on the committee? You think he’ll easily roll over for a deserving team over Tillman’s team, or Tiffany’s? These guys are friends. I’d rather nominate four Fanlax posters to be the committee. Not even kidding. JoeWillie, wgdsr, Wheels, Keno, and Blue Angel (and a few more in forgetting) seem to know strengths and weaknesses here better than Inside Lacrosse or any other pollster.

I agree 100%. There is something distasteful about UVa getting in losing 4 straight, but you can understand them getting in. Mostly because the individual talent is so good. They are a threat. Maryland is not a threat

[Finster]

Tell me again why UVA is such an automatic? Yea, I get the RPI, but don’t you at least have to win some of those games, and not just play them? Wins against umd (do we know what they are , btw, from a quality perspective?), Harvard (didn’t make the Ivy tourney) and Mich (who before the Big10 tourney, hadn’t beaten anyone). 1-4 in ACC and have lost 4 straight.

Imagine what their RPI would be if they actually beat someone in the Top 10, and not just played them….

I don't see the case for UVA either. If anything, they're one of the few teams I feel has shown that they can't beat the top teams in the country.

Unfortunately for the bubble teams, they're also in a cushy position in the ACC where they can just lean on the RPI formula and fail upwards to a bid (and probably a seed).

Disregarding RPI and SOS, my eye test says Virginia belongs but Maryland doesn’t. Unless McNaney plays on his head, Maryland will just lose their first round game anyway; I’d give that slot to a team that plays to win.

Two other issues: ND has nothing to play for today while Duke might catapult to #2, amazingly. Yet ND plays with pride, so if you’re a Blue Devil, I wouldn’t count your chickens just yet.

Finally, how is Breschi on the committee? You think he’ll easily roll over for a deserving team over Tillman’s team, or Tiffany’s? These guys are friends. I’d rather nominate four Fanlax posters to be the committee. Not even kidding. JoeWillie, wgdsr, Wheels, Keno, and Blue Angel (and a few more in forgetting) seem to know strengths and weaknesses here better than Inside Lacrosse or any other pollster.

I agree 100%. There is something distasteful about UVa getting in losing 4 straight, but you can understand them getting in. Mostly because the individual talent is so good. They are a threat. Maryland is not a threat

If ever there were a year to open up the tournament to others, this is that year. And if left to me, I’d be darn certain to throw a curveball at ND for their first game, giving them an unknown like St Joseph’s.

Also I would put you on the committee too, Coda; I have no idea who you root for.

[Laxbuck]

St. Joe’s deserves far better than a matchup v #1 ND. If they truly seeded all 17 teams they would be 9-11 range

[keno in reno]

Tell me again why UVA is such an automatic? Yea, I get the RPI, but don’t you at least have to win some of those games, and not just play them? Wins against umd (do we know what they are , btw, from a quality perspective?), Harvard (didn’t make the Ivy tourney) and Mich (who before the Big10 tourney, hadn’t beaten anyone). 1-4 in ACC and have lost 4 straight.

Imagine what their RPI would be if they actually beat someone in the Top 10, and not just played them….

I don't see the case for UVA either. If anything, they're one of the few teams I feel has shown that they can't beat the top teams in the country.

Unfortunately for the bubble teams, they're also in a cushy position in the ACC where they can just lean on the RPI formula and fail upwards to a bid (and probably a seed).

Disregarding RPI and SOS, my eye test says Virginia belongs but Maryland doesn’t. Unless McNaney plays on his head, Maryland will just lose their first round game anyway; I’d give that slot to a team that plays to win.

Two other issues: ND has nothing to play for today while Duke might catapult to #2, amazingly. Yet ND plays with pride, so if you’re a Blue Devil, I wouldn’t count your chickens just yet.

Finally, how is Breschi on the committee? You think he’ll easily roll over for a deserving team over Tillman’s team, or Tiffany’s? These guys are friends. I’d rather nominate four Fanlax posters to be the committee. Not even kidding. JoeWillie, wgdsr, Wheels, Keno, and Blue Angel (and a few more in forgetting) seem to know strengths and weaknesses here better than Inside Lacrosse or any other pollster.

I agree 100%. There is something distasteful about UVa getting in losing 4 straight, but you can understand them getting in. Mostly because the individual talent is so good. They are a threat. Maryland is not a threat

You're right, Maryland is not a threat. But they earned an invite over any Ivy hopeful, who are not threats either. I mean, you can't be a threat if you lost to UNC, Brown, went 0-4 against 6-10 teams, or "limped in" by losing to Princeton twice in a row, who lost to non-threatening Maryland in one of Maryland's easier wins.

You can spin against any of the bubble teams, that's why the data matters. And UNC wasn't a threat in 2016 either.

[masondixonlax]

Tell me again why UVA is such an automatic? Yea, I get the RPI, but don’t you at least have to win some of those games, and not just play them? Wins against umd (do we know what they are , btw, from a quality perspective?), Harvard (didn’t make the Ivy tourney) and Mich (who before the Big10 tourney, hadn’t beaten anyone). 1-4 in ACC and have lost 4 straight.

Imagine what their RPI would be if they actually beat someone in the Top 10, and not just played them….

I don't see the case for UVA either. If anything, they're one of the few teams I feel has shown that they can't beat the top teams in the country.

Unfortunately for the bubble teams, they're also in a cushy position in the ACC where they can just lean on the RPI formula and fail upwards to a bid (and probably a seed).

Disregarding RPI and SOS, my eye test says Virginia belongs but Maryland doesn’t. Unless McNaney plays on his head, Maryland will just lose their first round game anyway; I’d give that slot to a team that plays to win.

Two other issues: ND has nothing to play for today while Duke might catapult to #2, amazingly. Yet ND plays with pride, so if you’re a Blue Devil, I wouldn’t count your chickens just yet.

Finally, how is Breschi on the committee? You think he’ll easily roll over for a deserving team over Tillman’s team, or Tiffany’s? These guys are friends. I’d rather nominate four Fanlax posters to be the committee. Not even kidding. JoeWillie, wgdsr, Wheels, Keno, and Blue Angel (and a few more in forgetting) seem to know strengths and weaknesses here better than Inside Lacrosse or any other pollster.

I agree 100%. There is something distasteful about UVa getting in losing 4 straight, but you can understand them getting in. Mostly because the individual talent is so good. They are a threat. Maryland is not a threat

You're right, Maryland is not a threat. But they earned an invite over any Ivy hopeful, who are not threats either. I mean, you can't be a threat if you lost to UNC, Brown, went 0-4 against 6-10 teams, or "limped in" by losing to Princeton twice in a row, who lost to non-threatening Maryland in one of Maryland's easier wins.

You can spin against any of the bubble teams, that's why the data matters. And UNC wasn't a threat in 2016 either.

If we did the threat or eye test then Notre Dame would be playing for a 3peat in national championships this year

[coda]

Tell me again why UVA is such an automatic? Yea, I get the RPI, but don’t you at least have to win some of those games, and not just play them? Wins against umd (do we know what they are , btw, from a quality perspective?), Harvard (didn’t make the Ivy tourney) and Mich (who before the Big10 tourney, hadn’t beaten anyone). 1-4 in ACC and have lost 4 straight.

Imagine what their RPI would be if they actually beat someone in the Top 10, and not just played them….

I don't see the case for UVA either. If anything, they're one of the few teams I feel has shown that they can't beat the top teams in the country.

Unfortunately for the bubble teams, they're also in a cushy position in the ACC where they can just lean on the RPI formula and fail upwards to a bid (and probably a seed).

Disregarding RPI and SOS, my eye test says Virginia belongs but Maryland doesn’t. Unless McNaney plays on his head, Maryland will just lose their first round game anyway; I’d give that slot to a team that plays to win.

Two other issues: ND has nothing to play for today while Duke might catapult to #2, amazingly. Yet ND plays with pride, so if you’re a Blue Devil, I wouldn’t count your chickens just yet.

Finally, how is Breschi on the committee? You think he’ll easily roll over for a deserving team over Tillman’s team, or Tiffany’s? These guys are friends. I’d rather nominate four Fanlax posters to be the committee. Not even kidding. JoeWillie, wgdsr, Wheels, Keno, and Blue Angel (and a few more in forgetting) seem to know strengths and weaknesses here better than Inside Lacrosse or any other pollster.

I agree 100%. There is something distasteful about UVa getting in losing 4 straight, but you can understand them getting in. Mostly because the individual talent is so good. They are a threat. Maryland is not a threat

If ever there were a year to open up the tournament to others, this is that year. And if left to me, I’d be darn certain to throw a curveball at ND for their first game, giving them an unknown like St Joseph’s.

Also I would put you on the committee too, Coda; I have no idea who you root for.

I am a Michigan fan..

[old salt]

Can someone explain why the ACC is not an AQ league?

You need 6 teams to have an AQ. ACC has 5.

I'd also point out how the Ivies are hurt by having 7 teams, even if it gives them an AQ. This year the 4 teams in the ILT (Cornell, Yale, Princeton, Penn) were strong enough to stand their ground in any conference. The all had important out-of-conference wins. After them came Harvard, which had some wins out of conference, most against weaker teams, with the best OOC win against Michigan and a loss to Virginia. Then Brown finished 3 & 11, with its best (and only) OOC win being UMass. And Dartmouth finished 3 & 10, with OOC wins over Holy Cross, Siena, and Vermont.

So, the bottom 3 teams had the lowest RPI's and the lowest SOS. The fact that the top 4 each had to play the bottom 3 pulled down the top 4's RPIs. This quantitative logic is built into the league's configuration. Admittedly, this is an unusual year. But it looks like the Ivies are going to be a 1-bid league even though as of May 2 two Ivies were in the top 10 & two more ranked 12 & 14.

On the flip side, having only 5 teams seems to benefit the ACC (at least in terms of RPI) since they can schedule extra OOC games against "safer" opponents that are likely to rack up wins in "easier" conferences.

...& now they again have a 4 team tourney to further jazz their RPI & SOS, even for the losers.
Same for the B1G. Self-licking statistical ice cream cones.

[coda]

Tell me again why UVA is such an automatic? Yea, I get the RPI, but don’t you at least have to win some of those games, and not just play them? Wins against umd (do we know what they are , btw, from a quality perspective?), Harvard (didn’t make the Ivy tourney) and Mich (who before the Big10 tourney, hadn’t beaten anyone). 1-4 in ACC and have lost 4 straight.

Imagine what their RPI would be if they actually beat someone in the Top 10, and not just played them….

I don't see the case for UVA either. If anything, they're one of the few teams I feel has shown that they can't beat the top teams in the country.

Unfortunately for the bubble teams, they're also in a cushy position in the ACC where they can just lean on the RPI formula and fail upwards to a bid (and probably a seed).

Disregarding RPI and SOS, my eye test says Virginia belongs but Maryland doesn’t. Unless McNaney plays on his head, Maryland will just lose their first round game anyway; I’d give that slot to a team that plays to win.

Two other issues: ND has nothing to play for today while Duke might catapult to #2, amazingly. Yet ND plays with pride, so if you’re a Blue Devil, I wouldn’t count your chickens just yet.

Finally, how is Breschi on the committee? You think he’ll easily roll over for a deserving team over Tillman’s team, or Tiffany’s? These guys are friends. I’d rather nominate four Fanlax posters to be the committee. Not even kidding. JoeWillie, wgdsr, Wheels, Keno, and Blue Angel (and a few more in forgetting) seem to know strengths and weaknesses here better than Inside Lacrosse or any other pollster.

I agree 100%. There is something distasteful about UVa getting in losing 4 straight, but you can understand them getting in. Mostly because the individual talent is so good. They are a threat. Maryland is not a threat

You're right, Maryland is not a threat. But they earned an invite over any Ivy hopeful, who are not threats either. I mean, you can't be a threat if you lost to UNC, Brown, went 0-4 against 6-10 teams, or "limped in" by losing to Princeton twice in a row, who lost to non-threatening Maryland in one of Maryland's easier wins.

You can spin against any of the bubble teams, that's why the data matters. And UNC wasn't a threat in 2016 either.

I would separate Cornell and Yale.. Cornell has a real argument to get in. Maryland doesn’t pass my eye test, but they have a legit argument to be in. They played the #1 SOS in the nation. That should give you the benefit of doubt and something that should be encouraged

[keno in reno]

If we did the threat or eye test then Notre Dame would be playing for a 3peat in national championships this year

Yeah, the lacrosse fanbase is probably one of the most intelligent groups of sports fans as a whole, at least evidenced by this community. Lot of great statistical and fact-based analysis here. Until it works against one's beloved team. Then it reverts to the insults, eye tests, that was in februaryisms and Breschi's on the board conspiracies.

Maryland sucks right now, but their resume sucks less than the others.

[rolldodge]

With Teams like Virginia and Maryland on the downswing, and results like yesterday's Big Ten final, we could be in for a very unorthodox and interesting final four this year. There could be a number of first round matchups where the unseeded team is the favorite.

[masondixonlax]

If we did the threat or eye test then Notre Dame would be playing for a 3peat in national championships this year

Yeah, the lacrosse fanbase is probably one of the most intelligent groups of sports fans as a whole, at least evidenced by this community. Lot of great statistical and fact-based analysis here. Until it works against one's beloved team. Then it reverts to the insults, eye tests, that was in februaryisms and Breschi's on the board conspiracies.

Maryland sucks right now, but their resume sucks less than the others.

Truth. Everyone hated on ND when they cried for a bid in 22…guess were all hypocrites

[44WeWantMore]

To be fair, some of the biggest crying was the ESPN crew.