2024 top 20

[rolldodge]

Wins over:

RPI 1-5 = +6
RPI 6-10 = +5
RPI 11-20 = +4
RPI 21-30 = +3
RPI 31-40 = +2
RPI 40+ = +1

Losses to:

RPI 1-25 = -1
RPI 26-76 = -2

Not to pick on rolldodge specifically (because even the NCAA does this), but groups of 5 or whatever just put in artificial breakpoints: why is beating RPI 41 only half as good as beating RPI 40? Better is a smoothly sliding scale from top to bottom.

And then it should be iterated. Because if you need to modify RPI, shouldn't you then also modify something based on RPI?

This is what systems like KRACH and ColleyMatrix do. They start with raw record, then update based on strength of schedule (which is based on raw record), then update repeatedly until the ratings stabilize.

Agree the breakpoints are a weakness. You could go with a system that gives +76 to a win over the top RPI team and +1 to the bottom. But that values that win at 76x versus 6x. And I’m not sure what you would do with the losses. You could do -1 for a loss to #1 RPI and -76 to a loss to #76, but I don’t like taking that much away for losses. The loss is already a missed opportunity for a win.

Another reason for the grouping (other than to match with the selection criteria) is to not take the RPI too seriously. It smoothes out the values within the groupings at the expense of the sharp cutoffs between them. Generally the goal is to assume more rather than less parity between all teams.

Another approach could be to use the actual RPI values so a win over #1 Duke right now would be +0.6864. Versus a win over #76 Hampton at +0.2905. That’s only a 2.64x difference between top and bottom.

[rolldodge]

You got me thinking so here's a ranking based on the following:

• For each win, add the opponents raw RPI value.
• For each loss, subtract (the highest raw RPI minus the opponents raw RPI). So a loss against RPI #1 would subtract 0 and go up from there.
• Divide by number of games

| Rank | Team | Score |
|------|----------------|------------|
| 1 | Penn State | 0.4836375 |
| 2 | Virginia | 0.4734444 |
| 3 | Duke | 0.4542833 |
| 4 | Notre Dame | 0.4479833 |
| 5 | Syracuse | 0.4409636 |
| 6 | Army | 0.4111375 |
| 7 | Denver | 0.40565 |
| 8 | Cornell | 0.4041714 |
| 9 | Yale | 0.3996857 |
| 10 | Georgetown | 0.3878375 |
| 11 | Johns Hopkins | 0.3653 |
| 12 | Harvard | 0.3648375 |
| 13 | Quinnipiac | 0.361225 |
| 14 | Maryland | 0.345575 |
| 15 | Villanova | 0.3349222 |
| 16 | Colgate | 0.3281 |
| 17 | Michigan | 0.3231111 |
| 18 | Princeton | 0.31945 |
| 19 | Penn | 0.3178889 |
| 20 | Boston U | 0.3144111 |
| 21 | Towson | 0.3052 |
| 22 | LIU | 0.3029125 |
| 23 | Rutgers | 0.2837333 |
| 24 | St Joes | 0.2821625 |
| 25 | North Carolina | 0.2692556 |

[joewillie78]

Interesting numbers. Look where Quinnipiac is.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

[coda]

your... rpi... does... not.... go... up... with... a loss.

It can only go in three places after a game: up, down, or stay the same.

You're telling me that RPI doesn't go up with a loss against a quality team? I'd buy that if your'e #1, and lose to...well....anyone, but are you sure this is a hard and fast rule?

I'm seeing "new RPI's" that NCAA sports have adopted of late where the weight on outcomes moves around, so maybe we're not talking about the same RPI?

rpi evaluates the totality of your record against the totality of your schedule. qw's as constituted does not do that.

Yes. RPI and SOS are there to quantify losses. QW ignores losses, as well as wins against weak teams.

Which is what the NCAA tournament does. We've discussed this LONG ago: I want teams to WIN their way to a bid. I don't care who a team lost to.

And I completely understand that I'm alone on an island with this view.

firstly, i wrote it like that, as an absolute, because that is how you did. but the opposite. secondly, in practice, for the top 20-25 or so rpi teams (which is hoo we're talking about), the instances of a "top team" benefiting your rpi are rare. read: most all teams you play will ding your rpi with a loss. if you're a top 25 rpi team and you lose to an undefeated maryland team whose opp' record holds up against your own opp' opp' record? yes, will help. if that same team had a 13-2 record or worse (like 99% of "top teams")? no. losing your way to a better tournament rpi is not a thing.

and i care if a team lost to bad teams.

this is all without saying that, as the rules for criteria to be primarily considered for selection are presently and have always been written: YOUR OWN RPI IS NOT SUPPOSED TO MATTER! but like you said in a later post, as the coaches, fans, etc. don't seem to care how the sausage is made or if they're following directions, then i don't care, either. just tell me who is in.

AS an aside. I think Andy Shay has scheduling down with an eye towards RPI. He tends to schedule solid mid-majors and avoids the "blue bloods". Scheduling games you should win, that are still beneficial to RPI.

Not sure this take that Shay is gaming the system should go without a response. Yale played nos. 1 and 4 on the road OOC this year. Beat no. 1 Denver in altitude and lost to PSU in sudden death. Yale routinely played Albany during their salad days and used to play Maryland. Yes they play RPI boosters BU and Villanova as non blue blood affairs. But they go home and away with them and even played nova in neutral Texas (and lost). Those are not like zero risk games or anything, but I think Shay would concede that those are smart games to schedule. That said, there’s no evidence I’ve seen that Yale shies away from the best competition. In fact the evidence indicates otherwise - see above. So overall it seems that Yale does both schedule smartly and schedule some top competition/blue bloods. Which is why their rpi is so high. And I’m sure Yale would happily go to Charlottesville etc. Are Duke and Carolina dying to go to New Haven???
XO

None of that discredits my statement. He is very smart about his scheduling. Tends to avoid high profile teams. The idea that it is Duke and Carolina avoiding Yale is just nonsensical. Both routinely schedule Ivy teams. Calling Denver #1 is an obvious attempt to obscure and manipulate the facts.

[HGK]

“Calling Denver #1 is an obvious attempt to obscure and manipulate the facts.”

How is he obscuring the facts when in fact Yale beat Denver when Denver was ranked #1.

You might not have agreed with Denver’s ranking but the statement was 100% factually correct.

[rolldodge]

Interesting numbers. Look where Quinnipiac is.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

Thanks to ChatGPT and Python, here is the ranking for the tiered RPI values


| Rank | Team | Score |
|------|---------------- |-----------------------|
| 1 | Penn State | 2.75 |
| 2 | Duke | 2.5 |
| 3 | Syracuse | 2.4545454545454546 |
| 4 | Yale | 2.2857142857142856 |
| 5 | Notre Dame | 2.1666666666666665 |
| 6 | Georgetown | 2.0 |
| 6 | Denver | 2.0 |
| 6 | Cornell | 2.0 |
| 9 | Hopkins | 1.8888888888888888 |
| 10 | Maryland | 1.625 |
| 10 | Army | 1.625 |
| 12 | Princeton | 1.375 |
| 13 | Penn | 1.3333333333333333 |
| 14 | Harvard | 1.25 |
| 15 | Michigan | 1.2222222222222223 |
| 15 | Villanova | 1.2222222222222223 |
| 17 | Boston U | 1.1111111111111112 |
| 18 | Colgate | 1.11111111
| 19 | Navy | 0.8888888888888888 |
| 20 | St Josephs | 0.875 |
| 21 | Quinnipiac | 0.75 |
| 22 | Rutgers | 0.6666666666666666 |
| 22 | North Carolina | 0.6666666666666666 |
| 24 | Bryant | 0.625 |
| 24 | LIU | 0.625 |
| 26 | Towson | 0.5555555555555556 |
| 26 | NJIT | 0.5555555555555556 |
| 28 | Jacksonville | 0.4444444444444444 |
| 29 | Loyola | 0.3 |
| 29 | High Point | 0.3 |
| 31 | Delaware | 0.2857142857142857 |


(I think I missed Navy in the previous method)

[coda]

“Calling Denver #1 is an obvious attempt to obscure and manipulate the facts.”

How is he obscuring the facts when in fact Yale beat Denver when Denver was ranked #1.

You might not have agreed with Denver’s ranking but the statement was 100% factually correct.

Because nobody else n this earth believes Denver is the #1 team. It’s intellectually dishonest to pretend that #1 ranking was legitimate. The only reason people use where teams were ranked at the time is to fluff up a resume, hoping people can’t see through that BS

[HGK]

So going by your “metric”, on selection Sunday the committee should just go with their gut feel, rankings etc be damned. That should go over great.

[Farfromgeneva]

“Calling Denver #1 is an obvious attempt to obscure and manipulate the facts.”

How is he obscuring the facts when in fact Yale beat Denver when Denver was ranked #1.

You might not have agreed with Denver’s ranking but the statement was 100% factually correct.

Because nobody else n this earth believes Denver is the #1 team. It’s intellectually dishonest to pretend that #1 ranking was legitimate. The only reason people use where teams were ranked at the time is to fluff up a resume, hoping people can’t see through that BS

Can I introduce you to the politics section here?

[10stone5]

Top 5

- are really beginning to coalesce.

We’ll see tomorrow with Penn State playing Maryland,

also keeping an eye on Yale to see if they enter the fray.

[coda]

Top 20

- are beginning to coalesce towards the top.

We’ll see tomorrow with Penn State playing Maryland,

also I’m keeping an eye on Yale to see if they enter the fray.

I have been negative on Yale and Cornell. I need to see better defense from them to consider either a contender

[wgdsr]

Interesting numbers. Look where Quinnipiac is.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

Thanks to ChatGPT and Python, here is the ranking for the tiered RPI values


| Rank | Team | Score |
|------|---------------- |-----------------------|
| 1 | Penn State | 2.75 |
| 2 | Duke | 2.5 |
| 3 | Syracuse | 2.4545454545454546 |
| 4 | Yale | 2.2857142857142856 |
| 5 | Notre Dame | 2.1666666666666665 |
| 6 | Georgetown | 2.0 |
| 6 | Denver | 2.0 |
| 6 | Cornell | 2.0 |
| 9 | Hopkins | 1.8888888888888888 |
| 10 | Maryland | 1.625 |
| 10 | Army | 1.625 |
| 12 | Princeton | 1.375 |
| 13 | Penn | 1.3333333333333333 |
| 14 | Harvard | 1.25 |
| 15 | Michigan | 1.2222222222222223 |
| 15 | Villanova | 1.2222222222222223 |
| 17 | Boston U | 1.1111111111111112 |
| 18 | Colgate | 1.11111111
| 19 | Navy | 0.8888888888888888 |
| 20 | St Josephs | 0.875 |
| 21 | Quinnipiac | 0.75 |
| 22 | Rutgers | 0.6666666666666666 |
| 22 | North Carolina | 0.6666666666666666 |
| 24 | Bryant | 0.625 |
| 24 | LIU | 0.625 |
| 26 | Towson | 0.5555555555555556 |
| 26 | NJIT | 0.5555555555555556 |
| 28 | Jacksonville | 0.4444444444444444 |
| 29 | Loyola | 0.3 |
| 29 | High Point | 0.3 |
| 31 | Delaware | 0.2857142857142857 |


(I think I missed Navy in the previous method)

i dunno if i'd have uva out of my top 31....

[joewillie78]

The schedulers must hate JoeWillie.

7pm on Easter night? Sheesh, us old farts have to get our sleep BUT, I also have a commitment to get my top20 out as soon as the last game is over.

Be back here at about 9pm with the latest.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

[rolldodge]

Interesting numbers. Look where Quinnipiac is.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

Thanks to ChatGPT and Python, here is the ranking for the tiered RPI values


| Rank | Team | Score |
|------|---------------- |-----------------------|
| 1 | Penn State | 2.75 |
| 2 | Duke | 2.5 |
| 3 | Syracuse | 2.4545454545454546 |
| 4 | Yale | 2.2857142857142856 |
| 5 | Notre Dame | 2.1666666666666665 |
| 6 | Georgetown | 2.0 |
| 6 | Denver | 2.0 |
| 6 | Cornell | 2.0 |
| 9 | Hopkins | 1.8888888888888888 |
| 10 | Maryland | 1.625 |
| 10 | Army | 1.625 |
| 12 | Princeton | 1.375 |
| 13 | Penn | 1.3333333333333333 |
| 14 | Harvard | 1.25 |
| 15 | Michigan | 1.2222222222222223 |
| 15 | Villanova | 1.2222222222222223 |
| 17 | Boston U | 1.1111111111111112 |
| 18 | Colgate | 1.11111111
| 19 | Navy | 0.8888888888888888 |
| 20 | St Josephs | 0.875 |
| 21 | Quinnipiac | 0.75 |
| 22 | Rutgers | 0.6666666666666666 |
| 22 | North Carolina | 0.6666666666666666 |
| 24 | Bryant | 0.625 |
| 24 | LIU | 0.625 |
| 26 | Towson | 0.5555555555555556 |
| 26 | NJIT | 0.5555555555555556 |
| 28 | Jacksonville | 0.4444444444444444 |
| 29 | Loyola | 0.3 |
| 29 | High Point | 0.3 |
| 31 | Delaware | 0.2857142857142857 |


(I think I missed Navy in the previous method)

i dunno if i'd have uva out of my top 31....

good catch:

| Rank | Team | Score |
|------|---------------- |-----------------------|
| 1 | Penn State | 2.75 |
| 2 | Duke | 2.5 |
| 3 | Syracuse | 2.4545454545454546 |
| 4 | Virginia |2.3333333333333335. |
| 5 | Yale | 2.2857142857142856 |
| 6 | Notre Dame | 2.1666666666666665 |
| 7 | Georgetown | 2.0 |
| 7 | Denver | 2.0 |
| 7 | Cornell | 2.0 |
| 10 | Hopkins | 1.8888888888888888 |
| 11 | Maryland | 1.625 |
| 11 | Army | 1.625 |
| 13 | Princeton | 1.375 |
| 14 | Penn | 1.3333333333333333 |
| 15 | Harvard | 1.25 |
| 16 | Michigan | 1.2222222222222223 |
| 16 | Villanova | 1.2222222222222223 |
| 18 | Boston U | 1.1111111111111112 |
| 18 | Colgate | 1.11111111
| 20 | Navy | 0.8888888888888888 |
| 21 | St Josephs | 0.875 |
| 22 | Quinnipiac | 0.75 |
| 23 | Rutgers | 0.6666666666666666 |
| 23 | North Carolina | 0.6666666666666666 |
| 25 | Bryant | 0.625 |
| 25 | LIU | 0.625 |
| 27 | Towson | 0.5555555555555556 |
| 27 | NJIT | 0.5555555555555556 |
| 29 | Jacksonville | 0.4444444444444444 |
| 30 | Loyola | 0.3 |
| 30 | High Point | 0.3 |

[Finster]

The schedulers must hate JoeWillie.

7pm on Easter night? Sheesh, us old farts have to get our sleep BUT, I also have a commitment to get my top20 out as soon as the last game is over.

Be back here at about 9pm with the latest.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

Brutal time.

If PSU wins, they stay at 3 I guess?

If Maryland wins, your job gets really difficult.

[joewillie78]

Knowing the way this year has gone, an MD win should probably be expected.

I have BOTH my top 20 scenarios ready, and of course, an MD win made that scenario awfully confusing.

PSU win is a much easier top 20.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

[nyjay]

None of that discredits my statement. He is very smart about his scheduling. Tends to avoid high profile teams. The idea that it is Duke and Carolina avoiding Yale is just nonsensical. Both routinely schedule Ivy teams. Calling Denver #1 is an obvious attempt to obscure and manipulate the facts.

I think the relative lack of cross-pollination between the Ivies (and Penn State) and the ACC schools leads to the biggest question I have in the current rankings. RPI notwithstanding, how good really are Yale, Cornell, PSU? Haven't really seen them match up against any top ten teams other than themselves (Cornell did play Denver though). None of them have played a single ACC school. Very curious to see the results of the SU/Cornell game.

[random observer]

None of that discredits my statement. He is very smart about his scheduling. Tends to avoid high profile teams. The idea that it is Duke and Carolina avoiding Yale is just nonsensical. Both routinely schedule Ivy teams. Calling Denver #1 is an obvious attempt to obscure and manipulate the facts.

I think the relative lack of cross-pollination between the Ivies (and Penn State) and the ACC schools leads to the biggest question I have in the current rankings. RPI notwithstanding, how good really are Yale, Cornell, PSU? Haven't really seen them match up against any top ten teams other than themselves (Cornell did play Denver though). None of them have played a single ACC school. Very curious to see the results of the SU/Cornell game.

Well Penn and Princeton split with Duke/UNC, Harvard had UVA on the ropes until the very end. Even cellar dweller Brown took Maryland to OT. Yale also played (and beat Denver). I think the ACC is the best conference, but there have been plenty of Ivy matchups with the ACC/B1G and they've faired well enough in them to suggest that the conference is legit -- and that by extension Yale, Cornell, and PSU are legit.

[nyjay]

Well Penn and Princeton split with Duke/UNC, Harvard had UVA on the ropes until the very end. Even cellar dweller Brown took Maryland to OT. Yale also played (and beat Denver). I think the ACC is the best conference, but there have been plenty of Ivy matchups with the ACC/B1G and they've faired well enough in them to suggest that the conference is legit -- and that by extension Yale, Cornell, and PSU are legit.

I think the transitive property dissipates pretty rapidly in sports. Look - I do think the Ivies (and PSU) are good. I just don't know how good they are relative to the teams that are I think are the strongest teams in the country (i.e. the ACCs (ex-UNC), MD, Hop and Army). We will start finding out soon enough. Today's game and next weekend's SU/Cornell game will be interesting.

As a conference, I think the Ivy is, on the whole, pretty comparable to the B1G. A B1G/Ivy challenge series would be fun, do it all one weekend in mid-March. Not trying to argue seeding, but these would be six good games:

MD v. Cornell (22 rematch)
Hop v. Yale
PSU v. Princeton
Michigan v. Penn
Rutgers v. Harvard
OSU v. Brown

[44WeWantMore]

The Jays used to schedule Princeton regularly.
I think PSU / UPenn would be a good match-up. I think UPenn already plays Villanova and St. Joe's. If they add Drexel, it could be a Big 5 tournament for Commonweath bragging rights.