Expected Goals

[Laxattackjack]

I noticed you had strength of schedule and strength of out of conference schedule for Roanoke.

Are you able to easily share the top strength of schedule and strength of out of conference schedules for top 20 teams?

[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Sun Dec 31, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The most notable improvement for SUNY Canton in the 2023 season came on the defensive end, where the team made significant strides. Their defensive efficiency improved from a below-average 33.6% (220th nationally) to a more competitive 27.6% (145th nationally). This positive shift was largely driven by the substantial improvement in their defensive shooting percentage, which tightened from 31.7% (197th nationally) to 25.9% (87th nationally). Additionally, the squad's save percentage was much better, going from 47.3% (22nd percentile) to 55.1% (74th percentile). It's not all down to goalkeeping, but the combination of better goalkeeper and the defense limiting shot quality were both at play here.

Offensively, the team regressed, with offensive efficiency plummeting from a robust 32.7% (48th nationally) to a lackluster 23.9% (159th nationally). This downturn was driven by a considerable drop in shooting-efficiency, from a commendable 43.9% (13th nationally) to a disappointing 36.2% (132nd nationally). Furthermore, their shooting percentage also fell sharply from 36.0% (9th nationally) to 28.4% (122nd nationally). That the shooting efficiency drop was larger than the shooting percentage drop means that it wasn't just more shots missing, it was a larger percentage of their shots being saved. Saved shots can act a lot like turnovers, and they had more of them, relative to their overall shot total.

In terms of the possession game, the team faced challenges, as shown by their per-game possession margin regressing to -1.4 (145th nationally), down from an even 0.0 (128th nationally) in the previous season. This was partly due to a decrease in their faceoff win rate, which declined from 51.4% (108th nationally) to 48.2% (145th nationally). The clear rate also suffered, dropping dramatically from 87.7% to 76.8%, which undoubtedly contributed to fewer offensive opportunities and increased pressure on their defense.

Ultimately, the lackluster season can be exemplified by the offensive challenges SUNY Canton faced. The stark decline in offensive efficiency and shooting metrics not only reflects the struggle to capitalize on scoring opportunities but also indicates a broader issue of failing to control the pace of the game. Despite the defensive improvements, the offensive shortcomings were a critical component of why the season did not meet the previous year's standards.

If you want 5-10 minutes of team and player analysis in your inbox every morning, sign up for Expected Goals here.

[laxreference]

Anything Dickinson?

There will also be a roster rundown in Sunday's newsletter.

[laxreference]

Any analysis of impact of Dickinson face off specialists

I probably don't have enough to say to put together a piece in the newsletter, but McKee will be mentioned in the roster rundown in Sunday's newsletter.

But they were the 7th best faceoff unit in the nation last year, after adjusting for opponent strength. (21st if you just used raw faceoff win rate, which I would not advise.)

It was a unit that closed really well too. They won an adjusted 82% in Feb, 69% in May, 64% in Apr and 80% in May. And they were consistent. 72.5% in the 17 victories and 66% in the 3 defeats. The only games where Dickinson didn't have more offensive possessions than their opponents were Muhlenberg, Cabrini, Ursinus and CNU.

McKee was the 21st best FOGO according to the faceoff Elo ratings (which adjusts a guy's win rate by the strength of their opponents). Trucksess wasn't too bad either. He was the 56th best FOGO in the country according to fElo.

And most importantly, they were heads and shoulders better than every other faceoff unit in the Centennial.

DKFO20240119.JPG (27.89 KiB) Viewed 465 times

[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Mon Jan 1, 2024 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

As we survey Shenandoah's latest roster, it's clear that experience will play a pivotal role in the upcoming season. The team's median rotation player has played in 45 career games, and the depth of knowledge and on-field experience is impressive. The roster is balanced with 13 senior and graduate players matched by an influx of 13 newcomers eager to make their mark. This blend of veterans and fresh talent could provide a stable foundation while allowing room for new stars to emerge and potentially reshape the team's dynamic.

The faceoff unit, in particular, merits attention due to the addition of Ryan Therkorn via the transfer portal. Therkorn, who is coming from Allegheny, finished the year with a 53.5% win rate over 516 faceoffs, and was rated as the 176th best faceoff specialist in the nation. He should augment an already robust unit that retains 94% of last year's production. His arrival creates healthy competition within the squad, especially with returner Jason Forchetti, who took 197 draw last year and finished as the 355th rated player in the country. This internal rivalry could elevate the unit's overall performance, which finished last year in the 48th percentile nationally, and turn it into a more formidable unit in the upcoming season.

Offensively, the loss of Max Myers is notable but not debilitating. Myers, who accounted for 11% of Shenandoah's shots, was an efficient player, but his individual efficiency rating in the 51st percentile suggests that while his absence will be felt, it is not insurmountable. The challenge will be finding a new player who can match Myers' ability to position himself effectively and finish plays. However, given the team's overall retention of talent and the addition of new players, the offense has a solid foundation to build upon and potentially improve.

Shenandoah rides into 2024 with a roster looking to halt their decline and possibly reverse their fortunes. The high level of returning experience, coupled with new additions, particularly in the faceoff unit, should provide some optimism that they can make it happen. While the loss of a player like Myers is a hurdle, the team's depth and the potential for new talent to step up suggest that Shenandoah could very well be on the path to a more successful season.

If you want 5-10 minutes of team and player analysis in your inbox every morning, sign up for Expected Goals here.

[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Sat Jan 13, 2024 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

As we turn our attention to the Utica roster for the upcoming 2024 season, there are noticeable shifts and a sense of transition that could either lead to a surprising upturn or another challenging year. The roster, as it stands, signals a blend of incoming potential and the need to address significant gaps left by departing players. With the understanding that past results are not always a guide to future performance, let's dive into the data available to gauge whether Utica is poised for improvement or if they're bracing for more turbulence.

Starting with the faceoff unit, Utica faces an uphill battle. Returning just 45% of their faceoff experience, they're at a clear disadvantage. The departure of Josh Bennett, who had a substantial role last season with a 42.0% win rate, leaves a void that isn't easily filled. However, Jack Hogan's increased involvement, as shown by his 43.3% win rate in 224 faceoffs, offers a glimmer of hope that internal development could counteract some of the lost production. The cupboard is certainly not bare. Nevertheless, with the faceoff unit's performance lingering in the 25th percentile nationally last year, it's imperative for this group to elevate their game to avoid putting additional pressure on the offense and defense.

Defensively, the story is quite a bit rosier, as Utica returns all of their defensive contributors from the previous year. This continuity, coupled with their middle-of-the-pack finish in the 56th percentile, suggests a platform for potential growth. The defensive unit's familiarity and cohesion could translate into a more robust performance, especially with the experienced trio of goalkeepers, Patrick Oswald (52% on 261 shots faced), Jake Bowen (49% on 122 shots faced), and Owen Mix, back between the pipes. The introduction of freshman goalkeeper Max Frenette adds depth to a position that was ranked in the 34th percentile for save percentage last season. The hope is that stability in terms of defensive personnel leads to an improved defensive efficiency in 2024. If they can manage it, this unit could be a real strength for Utica.

Offensively, Utica returns 89% of their offensive production from last season. The loss of key shooter Luke Rinaudo-Concess, who accounted for 9% of shots and 8% of offensive EGA, poses a challenge in terms of goal-scoring opportunities. Yet, his lower individual efficiency rating, sitting in the 16th percentile, suggests that there's room for a more efficient scorer to step up. This could, in fact, enhance the overall offensive efficiency. Utica's offense struggled significantly last season, ranking in the 18th percentile nationally. This indicates that while the majority of offensive players are returning, there's a pressing need for an overhaul of some sort to transform that experience into improved results. Or maybe it's just a matter of rolling dice with inexperienced players in the pursuit of better results.

All in all, Utica's roster does show areas where they could potentially be better than last year, especially on defense. The offense and faceoff unit, however, will require significant strides to not only fill the gaps left by key players but to also elevate their efficiency to reverse the program's downward trend. It's a roster that hints at stability in some areas but underscores the necessity for breakthrough performances in others. If Utica can capitalize on the returning experience and successfully integrate new talent, there's a chance they could at least stabilize, if not improve, from their previous season's struggles.

If you want 5-10 minutes of team and player analysis in your inbox every morning, sign up for Expected Goals here.

[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Tue Jan 9, 2024 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

As the new season dawns, Ohio Northern has put out a roster that bodes well for the continuation of their solid performance from the previous year. With the entire team coming back, save for a few departures, the question on every fan's mind is whether this squad can maintain or even surpass the achievements of their last campaign.

Depth is a significant advantage for Ohio Northern, with their roster count holding steady at 54 players, mirroring last season's total. This is no small detail, as it positions them among the larger teams in the country. Such depth is a luxury that allows for experimentation with personnel and a buffer against the inevitable injuries that can plague a season. It's a strong foundation that affords the coaching staff flexibility in managing the team and the ability to sustain high levels of performance throughout the grueling season.

Offensively, Ohio Northern is poised to build on last year's successes. The team retains a whopping 97% of its offensive output, an enviable position that suggests continuity will be a significant strength. The distributed nature of the departures among lower usage players suggests there are no glaring holes to fill, which should make the transition into the new season relatively seamless. Given that the offense was ranked in the 63rd percentile nationally on an opponent-adjusted basis, and the returning players are well-acquainted with the systems and expectations, we could see an even more efficient and potent offense this season. That is the optimistic read of course. Typically players become more efficient as they gain experience, so it's not a sure thing that they'll be better, but history is with them.

The faceoff dot is another area where Ohio Northern looks just about like they did last year. With an impressive 97% of their faceoff experience returning, the team has a solid foundation to dominate possession, both in their actual draw-takers and in the wings that will go after those ground balls. The retention of draw specialists like Chad Calderwood, who had a 54.8% win rate and was the 208th best specialist according to the faceoff Elo ratings last year, is crucial for maintaining an edge in this critical aspect of the game. Again, the core is intact, which should help them at least maintain, if not improve upon, their 66th percentile national ranking in the faceoff game.

Defensively, the team's outlook is particularly promising, with 100% of their saves returning between the pipes. The security of having Cole Zaferakis, who posted a respectable 55.0% save percentage, back in goal cannot be overstated. This continuity, especially for a defense that was ranked in the 93rd percentile, is invaluable. The addition of freshman goalkeeper Phil Newcomer adds depth, but with no experienced transfers coming in, Zaferakis is expected to remain the cornerstone of the defensive unit. His veteran presence should provide stability and confidence to the defensive line in front of him.

In sum, Ohio Northern's roster is well-positioned to not just replicate but potentially exceed last year's accomplishments. The team's depth, offensive continuity, faceoff experience, and defensive solidity are all indicators of a program ready to continue its upward trajectory. While it's always challenging to make predictions, especially in sports, the roster composition suggests that Ohio Northern fans have good reason to look forward to the upcoming season with optimism.

If you want 5-10 minutes of team and player analysis in your inbox every morning, sign up for Expected Goals here.