IL Preseason Media Poll

[DoubleD]

Best is the season is right here so we're about to find it all out. Excited

[coda]

Putting Will Mark as the #2 goalie in the nation is a bold move.

With an improved face off unit and wing play along with an improved defense he should be even better this yr. He got peppered last yr in some games as teams had double the possessions and shots on goal. Kid hung tough and made ridiculous save after save. His save percentage should definitely raise this yr due to the improvements in front of him.

I would have him behind Knote, Gianforcaro, Entenmann, McNaney and Fraycon. You could put Carroll ahead also..

Not me Entenmann and McNaney he's ahead of the rest in my eyes.

I thought Fracyon was the best goalie I saw last year. Almost identical save % as Entemann behind a worse defense

Fraycon faced 395 shots on goal in 16 games and saved 56.23% of the shots (24.7 pre game)
Entenmann faced 344 and save 57% (21.5 shots per game)
Mark faced 378 and saved 54.2% (25.2 shots)

not sure where this idea that Mark faced a ridiculous amount of shots compared to other goalies. All 3 of these teams struggled facing off

[HopFan16]

Mark had a dominant first half, but his play fell off down the stretch. He was below 50% in 4 of the last 5 games (and below 40% in a couple of them) — all ACC opponents. Monster games vs. Hobart, Hofstra, St. Bonnies, and Vermont did a lot of heavy lifting. Haven't done the math but would venture a guess that his save % against top 20 opponents was probably below 50. Clearly a good goalie but if you want to be considered elite, you've got to play well against your best opponents. He did play well against Maryland, Hopkins, and Duke earlier in the year, but it seemed like the schedule caught up with him (and the entire defense, to be fair) when the schedule flipped to April. He's not in the same class as Fracyon, who was electric in Big Ten play (above 50% in every game and above 60% in half of them) and then against Princeton and Army in the tournament.

[coda]

If I was betting on Goalie to make a big jump in save percentage, it would probably be Paquette. To save 51.2% behind that defense is kind of impressive. He faced over 28 shots a game on average. He deserved hazard pay.

[10stone5]

Mark had a dominant first half, but his play fell off down the stretch. He was below 50% in 4 of the last 5 games (and below 40% in a couple of them) — all ACC opponents. Monster games vs. Hobart, Hofstra, St. Bonnies, and Vermont did a lot of heavy lifting. Haven't done the math but would venture a guess that his save % against top 20 opponents was probably below 50. Clearly a good goalie but if you want to be considered elite, you've got to play well against your best opponents. He did play well against Maryland, Hopkins, and Duke earlier in the year, but it seemed like the schedule caught up with him (and the entire defense, to be fair) when the schedule flipped to April. He's not in the same class as Fracyon, who was electric in Big Ten play (above 50% in every game and above 60% in half of them) and then against Princeton and Army in the tournament.

Pretty good to even be in the conversation,

for a guy who was riding the pine as a junior at Monte Vista CA.

[wgdsr]

has anyone done any stats analysis showing that a lower volume of shots faced resulted in a higher save percentage? laxreference?

[ctbagataway]

I pulled the top 50 teams in terms of shooting percentage from last year and ran the regression of shots per game vs shooting percentage. The R2 of the correlation is just over .03, so no explanatory value at all. I have a graph to show what I found but I can't attach it (no permissions). The scatter chart looks like a ball of observations with teams in the mid 30's to mid 40's shots per game, and 28%-35% shooting percentage.

UVA was the outlier. They had the highest shooting percentage at 38.1%, and were also near the top in terms of shots per game at just over 45. They found the inside/backside so often they got a lot of great looks even while playing an up-tempo game (or maybe because of it?).

[Comeonman]

Putting Will Mark as the #2 goalie in the nation is a bold move.

With an improved face off unit and wing play along with an improved defense he should be even better this yr. He got peppered last yr in some games as teams had double the possessions and shots on goal. Kid hung tough and made ridiculous save after save. His save percentage should definitely raise this yr due to the improvements in front of him.

I would have him behind Knote, Gianforcaro, Entenmann, McNaney and Fraycon. You could put Carroll ahead also..

Not me Entenmann and McNaney he's ahead of the rest in my eyes.

Like Q said in his article he can easily jump up 5 pts from 54% with the improved face off unit and defense. That's playinc the ACC with Duke, Virginia and Notre Dame. His 54% last yr in that situation was actually very impressive idk how many other goalies could have done that.

Mark is a very good goalie, but to predict 5 points better is hard to sustain, especially in the ACC. Quint did the same last year, predicting Danny Hincks from Dartmouth, another very good goalie who had a career 54% in the tough Ivy League, would also gain 5 points behind the Georgetown defense for his fifth year. He actually lost 3 points to 51% and change in 2023.

[wgdsr]

I pulled the top 50 teams in terms of shooting percentage from last year and ran the regression of shots per game vs shooting percentage. The R2 of the correlation is just over .03, so no explanatory value at all. I have a graph to show what I found but I can't attach it (no permissions). The scatter chart looks like a ball of observations with teams in the mid 30's to mid 40's shots per game, and 28%-35% shooting percentage.

UVA was the outlier. They had the highest shooting percentage at 38.1%, and were also near the top in terms of shots per game at just over 45. They found the inside/backside so often they got a lot of great looks even while playing an up-tempo game (or maybe because of it?).

thanks! but my sense is the opposite isn't necessarily true from a defensive standpoint solely because of that. individual vs comprehensive games being variable to opponents. are you able to do the same for shots allowed and save % easily?

[coda]

has anyone done any stats analysis showing that a lower volume of shots faced resulted in a higher save percentage? laxreference?

I haven’t done any work on it, but it makes logical sense. Just from the sense that in general, goalies that face less shots are usually on good defensive teams. That would generally lead to the opposition shooting poorer shots. Trying to remember a time when ND had a questionable goalie. Face offs could skew that. Probably the best way to test it is to start with shots per possession, but good luck finding that stat.

[wgdsr]

has anyone done any stats analysis showing that a lower volume of shots faced resulted in a higher save percentage? laxreference?

I haven’t done any work on it, but it makes logical sense. Just from the sense that in general, goalies that face less shots are usually on good defensive teams. That would generally lead to the opposition shooting poorer shots. Trying to remember a time when ND had a questionable goalie. Face offs could skew that. Probably the best way to test it is to start with shots per possession, but good luck finding that stat.

but i don't think it necessarily makes logical sense. some teams play at a faster pace. some teams play opponents that like to play faster. some teams lose more faceoffs. the opposite is true of all of those as well.

seems pretty easy, percentage of saves versus number of shots faced. just scanning the last couple years of goalie stats, there doesn'r look to even be a correlation. but that's just an eye test.

[pcowlax]

I pulled the top 50 teams in terms of shooting percentage from last year and ran the regression of shots per game vs shooting percentage. The R2 of the correlation is just over .03, so no explanatory value at all. I have a graph to show what I found but I can't attach it (no permissions). The scatter chart looks like a ball of observations with teams in the mid 30's to mid 40's shots per game, and 28%-35% shooting percentage.

UVA was the outlier. They had the highest shooting percentage at 38.1%, and were also near the top in terms of shots per game at just over 45. They found the inside/backside so often they got a lot of great looks even while playing an up-tempo game (or maybe because of it?).

Xander Dickson effect right there. He shot 55% on 111 shots, including a crazy 61 goals on 83 SOG. Personally lifted the whole teams shooting percentage.

[DoubleD]

Putting Will Mark as the #2 goalie in the nation is a bold move.

With an improved face off unit and wing play along with an improved defense he should be even better this yr. He got peppered last yr in some games as teams had double the possessions and shots on goal. Kid hung tough and made ridiculous save after save. His save percentage should definitely raise this yr due to the improvements in front of him.

I would have him behind Knote, Gianforcaro, Entenmann, McNaney and Fraycon. You could put Carroll ahead also..

Not me Entenmann and McNaney he's ahead of the rest in my eyes.

Like Q said in his article he can easily jump up 5 pts from 54% with the improved face off unit and defense. That's playinc the ACC with Duke, Virginia and Notre Dame. His 54% last yr in that situation was actually very impressive idk how many other goalies could have done that.

Mark is a very good goalie, but to predict 5 points better is hard to sustain, especially in the ACC. Quint did the same last year, predicting Danny Hincks from Dartmouth, another very good goalie who had a career 54% in the tough Ivy League, would also gain 5 points behind the Georgetown defense for his fifth year. He actually lost 3 points to 51% and change in 2023.

Oh I agree but I do think with the upgrades and better D in front of him he will have a great yr. The good thing is the season is right here so we get to find out how it all plays out.

[DoubleD]

has anyone done any stats analysis showing that a lower volume of shots faced resulted in a higher save percentage? laxreference?

I actually been wondering about this for the last few yrs. U would think ur save percentage would be higher if u face a lower amount of shots just due to less opportunities to let up goals. Nothing shows that this is actually true tho. Has to be some kind is stats on it somewhere. I mean liek a QB throws 20 passes and completes 15 that's 75% but it has to be harder to go 75% if u double it and throw 40 passes. Idk tho it might just seem like it would effect percentages the higher amount of shots or passes but nothing explains it all to us.

[Mr3Putt]

What are the dates of the Cheeseball Premier League tournament? They can do whatever . I don’t want them hogging any air time over potential college games that we would rather watch !!!

[lorin]

What are the dates of the Cheeseball Premier League tournament? They can do whatever . I don’t want them hogging any air time over potential college games that we would rather watch !!!

Wow so the best lacrosse players in the world are now Cheeseburgers, what a loser.

[ctbagataway]

has anyone done any stats analysis showing that a lower volume of shots faced resulted in a higher save percentage? laxreference?

I actually been wondering about this for the last few yrs. U would think ur save percentage would be higher if u face a lower amount of shots just due to less opportunities to let up goals. Nothing shows that this is actually true tho. Has to be some kind is stats on it somewhere. I mean liek a QB throws 20 passes and completes 15 that's 75% but it has to be harder to go 75% if u double it and throw 40 passes. Idk tho it might just seem like it would effect percentages the higher amount of shots or passes but nothing explains it all to us.

I really don't think that would be the case. I would say save percentage would best correlate to the percentage of quality shots, not the overall number of shots taken. I doubt a goalie facing 45 shots a game vs one facing 30 a game is getting tired and losing focus. Might be just the opposite. It is way easier as a goalie to stay in the flow when facing regular shots, especially savable ones from the outside. Teams that pass up on good shots to wait for the great shot have fewer shots per game but take higher quality shots. Unfortunately, there is no measure for "quality shots". The only way to do it would be to map all shots taken and assign a quality index for where the shots were from.

[coda]

has anyone done any stats analysis showing that a lower volume of shots faced resulted in a higher save percentage? laxreference?

I haven’t done any work on it, but it makes logical sense. Just from the sense that in general, goalies that face less shots are usually on good defensive teams. That would generally lead to the opposition shooting poorer shots. Trying to remember a time when ND had a questionable goalie. Face offs could skew that. Probably the best way to test it is to start with shots per possession, but good luck finding that stat.

but i don't think it necessarily makes logical sense. some teams play at a faster pace. some teams play opponents that like to play faster. some teams lose more faceoffs. the opposite is true of all of those as well.

seems pretty easy, percentage of saves versus number of shots faced. just scanning the last couple years of goalie stats, there doesn'r look to even be a correlation. but that's just an eye test.

I am not sure how faster pace or face offs affects shots per possession. My point was shots per possession is probably a good indicator of the quality of your defense. The 6 in front of your goalie are going to affect the quality of shots that your Goalie sees. I would bet a lot of money that if you paired Entenmann on Yale, his save percentage would drop and vice versa (paired Paquette with ND's defense)

I did something real quick (I am too lazy to do a regression).. It is far from scientific, but here is what I found.
Goalies that faced more than .39 shots per minute had an average of 49.7% save percentage. 56.8% of that group was sub 50% in save percentage

The sub .39 group averaged 51.1% with only 33% having a save percentage below 50%.

5 goalies faced less than .34 shots per minute and they averaged 52.5% save percentage. Only Denver goalie (Kleban) was below 50% at 47.3%..
5 goalies face .49 shots per minute and they averaged 47% save percentage. Not a single goalie hit the 50% mark.

Cutting the list into 25% (ncaa site only lists 67 goalies)..
Group 1 was at 50.3% (lowest shorts per minute)
Group 2 was at 51.5%
Group 3- 49.9%
GRoup 4- 49.5%

[Pork42]

Mark had a dominant first half, but his play fell off down the stretch. He was below 50% in 4 of the last 5 games (and below 40% in a couple of them) — all ACC opponents. Monster games vs. Hobart, Hofstra, St. Bonnies, and Vermont did a lot of heavy lifting. Haven't done the math but would venture a guess that his save % against top 20 opponents was probably below 50. Clearly a good goalie but if you want to be considered elite, you've got to play well against your best opponents. He did play well against Maryland, Hopkins, and Duke earlier in the year, but it seemed like the schedule caught up with him (and the entire defense, to be fair) when the schedule flipped to April. He's not in the same class as Fracyon, who was electric in Big Ten play (above 50% in every game and above 60% in half of them) and then against Princeton and Army in the tournament.

Pretty good to even be in the conversation,

for a guy who was riding the pine as a junior at Monte Vista CA.

I believe he played behind McNaney for a year at Salisbury Prep. There is no doubt he has really improved.

[Farfromgeneva]

Putting Will Mark as the #2 goalie in the nation is a bold move.

With an improved face off unit and wing play along with an improved defense he should be even better this yr. He got peppered last yr in some games as teams had double the possessions and shots on goal. Kid hung tough and made ridiculous save after save. His save percentage should definitely raise this yr due to the improvements in front of him.

I would have him behind Knote, Gianforcaro, Entenmann, McNaney and Fraycon. You could put Carroll ahead also..

Not me Entenmann and McNaney he's ahead of the rest in my eyes.

Like Q said in his article he can easily jump up 5 pts from 54% with the improved face off unit and defense. That's playinc the ACC with Duke, Virginia and Notre Dame. His 54% last yr in that situation was actually very impressive idk how many other goalies could have done that.

Mark is a very good goalie, but to predict 5 points better is hard to sustain, especially in the ACC. Quint did the same last year, predicting Danny Hincks from Dartmouth, another very good goalie who had a career 54% in the tough Ivy League, would also gain 5 points behind the Georgetown defense for his fifth year. He actually lost 3 points to 51% and change in 2023.

Would be interseting to comp Marks time in Cuse to Adler at Duke out of curiousity.