Johns Hopkins 2023

[steel_hop]

Disagree. I don't remember anybody "roasting" anybody. It's been well positioned that Petro and Daniels were likely not breaking bruschetta down at Sammy's together. 2013 had alot to do with it. It is also a fact that Petro's sideline behavior was not great - if you sat near the Hopkins bench you could hear everything. But SteelHop is 1000% correct - it's a combo effect. If he was still winning 78% or something thereabouts like he did between 2001 and 2008 and in the quarters every year and some final 4s in some - the alumni support would have been significant and he would still be there if he wanted to be. Having that percentage drop to something closer to 55% with one final four since '08 - the 4 worst play-off losses in Hopkins history (UVA '09, Duke '10, Brown '16, Duke '17) - a 1-4 NCAA playoff record since '15 and a 2-4 record in '20 with the only wins against an 0-6 Towson team and a OT thriller against the Mt had a very important role in the end result.

If Petro was going regularly to FFs and competing for titles, his contract would have been renewed. You know why I say that because history completely demonstrates this is what happened. Petro made the FF in 2015 and had his contract renewed in 2016. If the 2013 incident didn't prevent him from getting his contract renewed in 2016, I don't see how that 2013 incident would impact his ability to get a contract renewed 7 years later. There might be more to personality conflict between the various players but if he was winning, he was going to still be the head coach.

Now, maybe there is an argument that some off field people have changed - Goldfarb, Bob Scott and others had passed away and TC wasn't the AD any longer so some of the backroom support for Petro wasn't there as much but if he was winning, he'd still be there. He wasn't winning and his contract wasn't renewed. Petro made it easier for them to not renew his contract by the team's results from 2016 through 2020. Regardless of what happened during COVID, 2-4 likely played into it as well. If he's 6-0 and COVID happens, he likely gets at least another year.

[steel_hop]

steelhop has given up. Not the worst this group has ever been but a lot to work on. Lots of time left to get it together but something tells me they won't.

Not sure what you mean by that. I still regularly read the posts but I generally have to watch the games on tape delay because of family requirements. My kids are at prime sports playing age and I coach many of them. My time is just spent in other ways. I'd like to respond but it eats up too much time. Further, a good percentage of the posts come right after games. I'd don't need to repeat what has generally already been said - 2 or 3 days later seems silly when the discussion has moved on to the next game.

Now that winter sports are over, I'll be able to participate more to your liking.

I think the offense still needs a lot of work. Some of it is scheme some of it is just improved play (and maybe an increase in talent.) I think the defense has played extremely well this year - pretty much since PM came a board the defense has improved - way more aggressive than Petro's possession style defense. But, PM seems to getting the program heading in right direction. Hopefully, it continues into the B!G regular season.

[steel_hop]

One question on clearing stats. Hopkins was 10-11 in the first half and the final stats showed them at 20-22. But, I'm not sure that is right. There was the failed clear in the 3rd period when Hopkins killed the 6-4 (a bad pass by SU but a big underrated moment in the game). Hopkins failed to clear due to a time violation. Well, the D man tried to throw the ball down the field but an SU player deflected the ball out of bounds at the same time the 20 second clock expired. I'm assuming that wasn't designated a failed clear because the stats show Hopkins went 6-6 on clears in the 3rd.

If you fail to clear the ball when you are man down, does that count as a failed clear? Or was the deflection on a pass that would have resulted in a clear count? Just curious.

[jhu06]

I don't know what they do to get peshko and grimes going but it's clear they are in the lineup to stay, particularly on man up.

Wow - Chauvette scores two goals recently and all is forgiven I guess?

I think we all need to take a major chill pill on Grimes and Peshko
Grimes - last time I checked was solo 4th in goals and tied for 4th in points - Peshko tied for 5th in goals - I tend to like the guys who are Top 5 in goals halfway through the season
FIrst point - the style of Hopkins offense - mid 30's in shots is not the best for having 4 guys (Collison/Degnon/Grimes and Peshko) running around taking mid range bombs - Grimes is taking about 4 shots per game and Peshko 3 - so at 24% and 27% shot percentage these are not gatling guns continually misfiring
Second point - midfielder sweeps - appeared to me to be a point of emphasis from DP on the Orange side of things - we might recall he was a pretty good defensive coach at one time - but aside from the Degnon goal (and maybe being surprised by Melendez once or twice) Hopkins midfielders did not get to the middle of the field with either their strong left or right hand. Even Collison was blunted on that move as his lone goal was a wing dodge.
Third point - related to the first - but Hopkins seeming contentment with taking the shot clock down to the nictotine stained nubs many times might have a slight detriment in that it makes someone not want to make a mistake early AND it might mean that the last second shot is being taken from pretty far out
Fourth point - applies to Grimes - despite our positionless offense Degnon and Grimes are very similar players in terms of spots on the field and rightfully so you want Degnon taking the step downs if they are there because he has been en fuego recently
Fifth point - the lack of a dodging attackman to truly get the defense moving and concerned means players like Grimes and Peshko are often not left with step down opportunities where they have alot of time and room to unleash heat - To my recollection Hopkins did not have a single time and room yesterday - this also means - like Petro did yesterday - you can concentrate on one of Hopkins offensive strengths which is 4 guys that are 6'4" 200+lbs and can shoot it hard

Watched some of the duke and cuse came from the week before and it looked like a lot of disasters from Hopkins from years before and the comments from cuse fans online sounded like this message board for years. Duke had a lot of time and room situations. The questions with the offense is whether it's a talent situation or a time situation. Grimes had a brutal 4th quarter turnover, Peshko had some clears that were suspect.

[HopFan16]

The Jays are quietly up to 13th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to Lacrosse Reference. That's a lot better than I thought it'd be.

Meanwhile the adjusted defensive efficiency is the best it has been since at least 2015 (data doesn't go back further than that). It's better than it was in 2018, better than in 2015. It has improved each year since the staff change.

On paper, this could be a quarterfinal type team. Getting to that point with this schedule is a different story. But the underlying metrics are there.

Hop's analytics page is available for free right now, normally you'd need a Pro subscription. Not sure how much longer that'll be the case: https://pro.lacrossereference.com/johns-hopkinsm-5821

[nyjay]

If Petro was going regularly to FFs and competing for titles, his contract would have been renewed. You know why I say that because history completely demonstrates this is what happened. Petro made the FF in 2015 and had his contract renewed in 2016. If the 2013 incident didn't prevent him from getting his contract renewed in 2016, I don't see how that 2013 incident would impact his ability to get a contract renewed 7 years later. There might be more to personality conflict between the various players but if he was winning, he was going to still be the head coach.

Now, maybe there is an argument that some off field people have changed - Goldfarb, Bob Scott and others had passed away and TC wasn't the AD any longer so some of the backroom support for Petro wasn't there as much but if he was winning, he'd still be there. He wasn't winning and his contract wasn't renewed. Petro made it easier for them to not renew his contract by the team's results from 2016 through 2020. Regardless of what happened during COVID, 2-4 likely played into it as well. If he's 6-0 and COVID happens, he likely gets at least another year.

I agree with all of that. But it wasn't just the losses that made his tenure untenable - it was the combination of him, his coaching style and the losses that made the mix somewhat toxic for the program. When a team the team was winning, it was just tough coaching from a gruff, old-school coach and everything was great. When the team was losing, his style became the equivalent of "the beatings will continue until morale improves", which resulted in the kind of cultural problems that we all saw toward the end. Petro needed to adapt and he didn't seem to be able to do it. There's a big part of me that wishes he was still there (hate that he's at Cuse and second fiddle to Gait, just hate it), but the program had to move on from him when they did.

[51percentcorn]

How could Grimes have had a "brutal" 4th quarter? He had 1 turnover - yes it was not a good play on his part to hang his stick like that and get pants'd. It was one play. Did we like Peshko when he had 2 against St. Joe's? Nobody else on the team can provide what he did on his first goal in that game - right handed missile. Again, when everybody else provides 14 points in the next 8 games then you can bench Grimes.

If you are the Navy/Delaware/Michigan defensive coordinators starting to think about Hopkins - I would wager a fair bit that the following is at or near the top on their white boards - it is not hard:
1. Don't slide off of Degnon unless you think somebody else is wide open and a major major threat - he doesn't get to shoot on EMO
2. Try to get in on Angelus' hands and obstruct his vision - make him a shooter
3. Collison's a problem - he shoots 40% and he has shown the ability to use both hands - he's going to get a lot better at passing but make him give up the ball - slide to him - but not off Degnon if you can help it
4. Don't let the big middies sweep to the middle to their strong hands

That's why Melendez is so important - he's the wild card - 7 of his 9 goals (3rd on the team) have come in two games. He needs to be the 5th line item on the white board

The Navy game worries me. Never a good thing to put service academy people's backs up against the wall. It should be remembered that they were one of the favorites in the Patriot League coming into this year. It is a somewhat atypical Navy team from many year's past - they shoot and shoot and shoot - 48 times a game. Even though their shot percentage and SOG percentage is low that still means Marcille could need to deal with 25ish rubber spheres. While you might be able to raise the competition angle they win face-offs and they don't turn the ball over with the regularity that Hopkins does. Hewitt and Skalniak killed Hopkins last year and Arline made the defense look really bad on Navy's first goal before pulling a hammy I think. It would appear that when a newspaper quotes your head coach as saying an injury is "significant" Skalniak is doubtful at best. Ryan outplayed Kirson in goal last year. Hopkins is 2-2 in their last 4 at Navy Marine Corps and lately we tend to not score in Nap Town.

Two other things from last year's game that may bode well - or they have to change at least. The three departed offensive players were a combined 3 for 18 (not far from half of the team's shots) and two of them were 1 for 12. The ENTIRE Hopkins reserves were 0-0-0 in the stat sheet with 4 shots and 1 of the shots was from Dunn. So last year we were the gang that couldn't shoot straight.

[nyjay]

Hop's analytics page is available for free right now, normally you'd need a Pro subscription. Not sure how much longer that'll be the case: https://pro.lacrossereference.com/johns-hopkinsm-5821

God bless Lacrosse Reference, but there's some weird adjustments in the data if you look at it a bit. Maybe I'm reading the data wrong, but they have Marcille's save % against Cuse adjusting downward to be in the 40% range? And the adjustment on f/o's for the St. Joe's game takes the % down (despite Cole) rather than up? Not quite sure I understand those. Some of the team adjustments are equally baffling - the adjustments seem to imply that Loyola has a better offense than UVa (i.e. the adjustment is greater for the Loyola game than the UVa game)?

[51percentcorn]

God knows I love stats and think they impart information but we have a 35% win probability at home against Delaware?? They can't be taking into account the short turnaround for Hopkins. Lafeyette/St. Johns/Mt. St. Mary's/UMBC/Monmouth is not exactly playing the ACC this year. I'm not saying we are going to beat Delaware at all but equal rest for both teams at Homewood - I would think Hopkins should be favored.

[Henpecked]

God knows I love stats and think they impart information but we have a 35% win probability at home against Delaware?? They can't be taking into account the short turnaround for Hopkins. Lafeyette/St. Johns/Mt. St. Mary's/UMBC/Monmouth is not exactly playing the ACC this year. I'm not saying we are going to beat Delaware at all but equal rest for both teams at Homewood - I would think Hopkins should be favored.

Agreed. Delaware squeaked by all the teams you mentioned and got curb stomped by Villanova. Hopkins by 8-10 goals easily.

[51percentcorn]

Agreed. Delaware squeaked by all the teams you mentioned and got curb stomped by Villanova. Hopkins by 8-10 goals easily.

Again - not saying Hopkins will win the game or trying to denigrate the Hens - just seems like giving Hopkins a 35% chance to win the game in Baltimore seems low to me - unless you are giving heavy weight to the short rest issue which I am assuming a strictly analytics page is not.

[10stone5]

God knows I love stats and think they impart information but we have a 35% win probability at home against Delaware?? They can't be taking into account the short turnaround for Hopkins. Lafeyette/St. Johns/Mt. St. Mary's/UMBC/Monmouth is not exactly playing the ACC this year. I'm not saying we are going to beat Delaware at all but equal rest for both teams at Homewood - I would think Hopkins should be favored.

Agreed. Delaware squeaked by all the teams you mentioned and got curb stomped by Villanova. Hopkins by 8-10 goals easily.

Sandbagging 101

[Finster]

God knows I love stats and think they impart information but we have a 35% win probability at home against Delaware?? They can't be taking into account the short turnaround for Hopkins. Lafeyette/St. Johns/Mt. St. Mary's/UMBC/Monmouth is not exactly playing the ACC this year. I'm not saying we are going to beat Delaware at all but equal rest for both teams at Homewood - I would think Hopkins should be favored.

Agreed. Delaware squeaked by all the teams you mentioned and got curb stomped by Villanova. Hopkins by 8-10 goals easily.

Sandbagging 101

Coaches should forbid Fanlax’s IP access from the players.

[Finster]

Roughly halfway through the season. Time for a little report card.

Offense: B-
Improved from last year, but still a ways to go. Collison and Melendez have been impact additions. Angelus looks very comfortable — some have even said Stanwickian — as the primary distributor. Degnon remains one of the country's best pure shooters. Some nice contributions from Bauer and Krampf. But Grimes and Peshko have gone cold after solid starts. Injuries have led to week-to-week inconsistency and the group overall still looks like they're a player or two away from being a top unit. Have struggled against aggressive, athletic defenses (Loyola and UNC). Still, the ball is hotter than last year, they're a couple players deeper than they have been and they're shooting it better — 32% as a team, compared with 27% last year.

Defense: B+
Passing the eye test. Scott Smith is doing All-American work limiting opposing teams' top attackmen. Mazzone has been a crucial add on D, on faceoff wings, and in transition. Ruddy filled in admirably for Szuluk while the latter was out and Carson Brown has been quite the find. Pat Deans makes plays when healthy. SSDM defense has been up and down — Martin being the top guy but Jaronski, Raposo, and Ince have all had their moments. I would love to see them develop a 5th guy to rotate in there as sticking to 4 and running that same group out every game makes me nervous. Slides and recoveries, on-ball D have been solid and they're not hanging the goalie out to dry nearly as often as they used to. Shorties only get roasted once or twice a game rather than four or five. Big, physical group that plays with a chip on its shoulder.

Goaltending: A
After years in the wilderness looking for a goalie, the Jays finally have their guy. Not much else to say really. Over 50% in 5/7 games against top competition, with some huge performances sprinkled in. Marcille has also quietly been good clearing the ball — always looks to get it out quick and you can count the number of bad clearing passes on one hand. He has 3 points! Versfeld was excellent in spot duty against Utah.

Faceoffs: B
Right around 50% on the season against another gauntlet, and that was without Narewski for much of the year. Callahan and Dunn have taken turns being the guy, with Dunn's performance against Zach Cole of St. Joe's being the standout game. Now with Narewski back they've got 3 legit guys who can all win a matchup on a given day. The Wing God Jack Hawley has come up with some very clutch GBs. Want to see a bit more from the poles (Mazzone, Smith, etc.) who get bumped up to play on the wing. Still room for improvement in that area.

FanLax: C+
Some good performances from 51, Ruffled, nyjay, primitive, hmmm, 44, HOB, flalax, and others. Getting solid play out of that group. DocB has his moments but is still looking for that consistency. 06 and OCanada will surprise you with occasional gems but are more often than not a detriment to overall team performance. Sag A is riding the bench. steelhop has given up. Not the worst this group has ever been but a lot to work on. Lots of time left to get it together but something tells me they won't.

This was a +1,000 post, particularly the last paragraph. Humor is way underrated in society.

[stupefied]

Marcille was brilliant last game. Hard to duplicate but if he stays over .500 then JHU has a good chance against most good teams as they are solid in many areas

[nyjay]

If you are the Navy/Delaware/Michigan defensive coordinators starting to think about Hopkins - I would wager a fair bit that the following is at or near the top on their white boards - it is not hard:
1. Don't slide off of Degnon unless you think somebody else is wide open and a major major threat - he doesn't get to shoot on EMO
2. Try to get in on Angelus' hands and obstruct his vision - make him a shooter
3. Collison's a problem - he shoots 40% and he has shown the ability to use both hands - he's going to get a lot better at passing but make him give up the ball - slide to him - but not off Degnon if you can help it
4. Don't let the big middies sweep to the middle to their strong hands

That's why Melendez is so important - he's the wild card - 7 of his 9 goals (3rd on the team) have come in two games. He needs to be the 5th line item on the white board

I feel like we're going to have a big offensive game one of these weeks. The team has a lot of guys who are capable of scoring (Degnon, Angelus, Melendez, Collison, Grimes, Krampf, etc), but we haven't had a game yet where everyone has a good game. One game it's Degnon, one game it's Melendez, one game it's Collison. Think the game where they put it all together might be coming soon.

[jhu06]

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/league/DI/polls

no way we should be ahead or within 5 of loyola or unc.

I'm sure there's a nerd out there who has thought about doing the math over the last 15 years on polls and recruiting about who the media and coaches said were the top teams and players and who actually turned out to be good/was successful.

The program and big ten have a major opportunity, given the competitiveness of the conference to make a big splash w/this big ten tournament in a few months at Homewood. Students, young kids, alumni, etc.

Petro probably calmed a lot of nerves up there w/his defense last weekend. Want his family, the Dwans and Benson to succeed.

[DMac]

He's calmed a lot of nerves all season, this D has looked pretty darn good.

[10stone5]

Charlie Iler was recently evaluated at a club event,
he'll be PGing at the much improved Western Reserve this year,

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/recruiti ... e=analysis

[51percentcorn]

I feel like we're going to have a big offensive game one of these weeks. The team has a lot of guys who are capable of scoring (Degnon, Angelus, Melendez, Collison, Grimes, Krampf, etc), but we haven't had a game yet where everyone has a good game. One game it's Degnon, one game it's Melendez, one game it's Collison. Think the game where they put it all together might be coming soon.

This is the type of discussion I enjoy. I think the rejoinder to your thought is the old Michael Jordan line - the only person that ever held Mike to around 20 points was Dean Smith. And that wasn't necessarily a bad thing. Same applies here. It seems to me Hopkins is forging an identity - if you play the Blue Jays you are going to play defense - you are going to have to often defend for 50/60+ seconds and if a shot hits the goalie or the pipe you are going to have to do it again for 50 seconds. One consequence of that is averaging around 36 shots per game. If you shoot the ball 36 times - you have to shoot 36% to just get to 13. The one game Hopkins got to 15 they shot pretty much 50% - 15 for 31. As long as you are winning face-offs and taking care of the ball - it's a competitive formula. It has some potential drawbacks however:
- Opponents are typically within striking distance -So aside from the St. Joe's game when you shot 12 for 24 through the first 3 quarters - Jacksonville was the only other game where you had a sizeable lead heading into the 4th
- You are not used to having to play fast if you need to
- If you are not winning face-offs and throwing the ball all over the parking lot - it puts way too much pressure on your defense - you can't give them the 60 seconds of rest they need if you turn it over or don't win the face-offs
- If most games are close and competitive - then you are running the same 24 guys out there all the time through 15 games - 16 since they play at least 1 BIG tournament game - I know we totaled 26 against Syracuse but I honestly don't remember Ruddy out there for extended periods and it's not typical to roll out three face-off guys - so the same 22/23 field players are getting all the minutes. McDermott's return - if he's OK and getting Phillips back and maybe even English would be very beneficial - I would hate to waste Marquis for an entire year as well.