2022 Midterms

[dislaxxic]

You don't give voters enough credit when you dismiss a 20% margin of victory in a purple state. He is pulling Democrats and Independents.

Nope. Not purple anymore. Solid red. Thanks in large measure to the DeSantimonious' aggressive (and very likely illegal) gerrymandering the governor did, especially in the Tampa and north Florida areas.

..

[njbill]

I could not disagree more. You don't give voters enough credit when you dismiss a 20% margin of victory in a purple state. He is pulling Democrats and Independents.

I'm with you somewhat when you say he could soften his image. OK. But the guy is 44 years old...with young kids. He is a political image makers dream. He'll hire someone who will take that raw form and mold it to something I doubt you will recognize in 2 years.

A politician's life is about seizing the moment, not waiting. If he doesn't seize this moment, at the apex of his career, all other moments will seem like a letdown.

I wouldn't worry too much about Trump. he'll huff and puff and threaten everything and everyone including Desantis, but his impact is dwindling by the day. And Desantis can actually handle Trump, unlike the motley characters before.

Not sure we can really call Florida a purple state at this point. When Rubio beats Demings and especially when Miami Dade goes red, it's hard not to say Florida isn't currently a solidly R state.

Yes, DeSantis had big win last night. He's popular in Florida. But look around the country. How many other governors won their elections with similar or even greater margins? Sarah Sanders outperformed him. Anyone think she'll be president in her lifetime?

Being popular in your home state generally doesn't translate to national appeal. Ron is not popular nationally, and in fact has succeeded in creating a very negative and unappealing image in the minds of many voters. I continue to say he won't do well in the Blue Wall states. Not as well as Trump. Certainly not as well as Biden.

He has a lot of image work to do. Can he do it? Yes, possibly. Not sure he can do it in two years though. He'd be advised to spend the next four years softening his image and moderating his extreme positions.

I hear you about seizing the moment and that a good argument can be made that 2024 could be his "moment." And also that time could have passed him by by 2028 even though he'll still be a comparatively young man. Truth is, it is way too early to know what the 2028 political landscape will look like.

I agree Trump's influence is diminishing. It took a huge hit last night. But that is not going to impact his decision to run and to run third party if necessary. Ego, grift, and staying out of jail (something he's deluded about) are three strong motivators for the Orange Man. DeSantis can handle Trump in the sense that he can beat him in the primary, but he can't stop Trump from running third party, which DeSantis knows would be fatal to his chances.

If I'm wrong about Trump running third party, then 2024 could be DeSantis' time. I suspect a lot of Rs will think he can easily beat Biden. Don't underestimate ol' Joe. As I said, Joe beats Ron in Pa., Wisc., and Mich. And that will be enough. Ron does not energize the poorly educated and the deplorables the way Trump does. Those gogo boots will cost him a ton of votes.

I think Joe will run unless he has health issues. He might also step aside if a really strong D candidate emerges, but I don't see anyone on the horizon.

[njbill]

Independents like these little boots.
Bravo....fantastique!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yeS1qXI ... Lw&index=2

Fantastique indeed. Where did you find that? LOL.

[njbill]

Totally agree with you Bill: DeSantis should sit it out. He will be 48 in 2028, ample time to let the electorate forget what a f*cking tool he is and re-0burnish another image. But I wonder if DeSantis's vanity and ambition -- and the GOP money men -- will push him into the race in 2023-2024. What I would like to see is Trump and DeSantis both run in an ugly, expensive primary, and effectively split the party in two: crazy MAGA weirdos, and largely mainstream GOP types.

Yeah, there will be a national popcorn shortage if those two run against each other. Members of the media will pay seven figures just to moderate one of their debates.

"Gov. DeSantis, there have been widespread reports that when you taught at a private school in Georgia, you attended student parties. Just recently two girls from that school have come forward with some rather shocking accusations about things you allegedly did at those parties. I'd like to give you a chance to respond. Governor?"

[elonmuskrockefeller]

I could not disagree more. You don't give voters enough credit when you dismiss a 20% margin of victory in a purple state. He is pulling Democrats and Independents.

I'm with you somewhat when you say he could soften his image. OK. But the guy is 44 years old...with young kids. He is a political image makers dream. He'll hire someone who will take that raw form and mold it to something I doubt you will recognize in 2 years.

A politician's life is about seizing the moment, not waiting. If he doesn't seize this moment, at the apex of his career, all other moments will seem like a letdown.

I wouldn't worry too much about Trump. he'll huff and puff and threaten everything and everyone including Desantis, but his impact is dwindling by the day. And Desantis can actually handle Trump, unlike the motley characters before.

Not sure we can really call Florida a purple state at this point. When Rubio beats Demings and especially when Miami Dade goes red, it's hard not to say Florida isn't currently a solidly R state.

Yes, DeSantis had big win last night. He's popular in Florida. But look around the country. How many other governors won their elections with similar or even greater margins? Sarah Sanders outperformed him. Anyone think she'll be president in her lifetime?

Being popular in your home state generally doesn't translate to national appeal. Ron is not popular nationally, and in fact has succeeded in creating a very negative and unappealing image in the minds of many voters. I continue to say he won't do well in the Blue Wall states. Not as well as Trump. Certainly not as well as Biden.

He has a lot of image work to do. Can he do it? Yes, possibly. Not sure he can do it in two years though. He'd be advised to spend the next four years softening his image and moderating his extreme positions.

I hear you about seizing the moment and that a good argument can be made that 2024 could be his "moment." And also that time could have passed him by by 2028 even though he'll still be a comparatively young man. Truth is, it is way too early to know what the 2028 political landscape will look like.

I agree Trump's influence is diminishing. It took a huge hit last night. But that is not going to impact his decision to run and to run third party if necessary. Ego, grift, and staying out of jail (something he's deluded about) are three strong motivators for the Orange Man. DeSantis can handle Trump in the sense that he can beat him in the primary, but he can't stop Trump from running third party, which DeSantis knows would be fatal to his chances.

If I'm wrong about Trump running third party, then 2024 could be DeSantis' time. I suspect a lot of Rs will think he can easily beat Biden. Don't underestimate ol' Joe. As I said, Joe beats Ron in Pa., Wisc., and Mich. And that will be enough. Ron does not energize the poorly educated and the deplorables the way Trump does. Those gogo boots will cost him a ton of votes.

I think Joe will run unless he has health issues. He might also step aside if a really strong D candidate emerges, but I don't see anyone on the horizon.

I agree with a lot of what you say here. The reason I pull Desantis' name out of the other governor hats is, like Jared Polis, these two outperform in states which are not completely red or blue. Sarah doing well in Arkansas isn't any more of a surprise than Moore doing well in Maryland.

Two years is a long time. I'd expect to see Desantis 'disappear' back to managing Florida (a job he does very well at, hence the margin), with some serious political pro's being hired to begin the process of crafting a newer softer image.

I am wholly unconcerned about Trump; Trump needs to worry now about having no institutional support should the DOJ come calling; he's going to need friends and money. The GOP will likely pull funding for his lawyers. Yes it will be ugly and Trump will scream, and yes it will cost Republicans some support from the crazy wing, but all of this is healthier in the long run. Once the votes are counted, I'd expect the internal Republican civil war to commence...it will be quick. The end party will be a conservative (again) party with Desantios leading it.

Desantis will be the 2024 R nominee, guaranteed.

[elonmuskrockefeller]

You don't give voters enough credit when you dismiss a 20% margin of victory in a purple state. He is pulling Democrats and Independents.

Nope. Not purple anymore. Solid red. Thanks in large measure to the DeSantimonious' aggressive (and very likely illegal) gerrymandering the governor did, especially in the Tampa and north Florida areas.

..

Florida is not more red because of gerrymandering (a process that Democrats use also to their advantage, which merely sets up Congressional seats). The state is more red because of a few things:

Desantis is an effective executive
Blue state immigrants are fleeing policies that are hurting their families, so they don't want the same in Florida
Latinos are switching to Republican policies

[dislaxxic]

Women Remembered to Vote on Abortion

They told us the “Dobbs effect” was a mirage, that women were no longer energized around reproductive rights, that the messaging was all wrong, and that perhaps abortion was neither an economic issue nor much of a “kitchen table” issue after all. Or at minimum, that one poll suggested as much, and that was sufficient reason to move on to the cost of gas, and crime. They told us, implicitly, that women were fickle and inconstant voters, and not to be counted on; and that it was all a mirage, and that what happened this summer in Kansas and Alaska and Michigan and in the New York special election, were all one-offs. All of them.

Keep women, and young voters, and voters of color, out of your modeling about rational self-interest, and you will keep being surprised. In each of the five crucial state initiatives that implicate reproductive rights under state law, abortion rights won. Voters in California, Michigan and Vermont overwhelmingly opted to enshrine Roe in their state constitutions Tuesday night, as did, ruby red Kentucky, where abortion has been illegal since Dobbs came down in June. Montana, the fifth state that put abortion on the ballot with a legislative referendum over its “born alive” law that criminalize health care providers who fail to keep newborns without chance of survival alive for as long as possible, also appears to be headed for defeat, per The New York Times.

When the Supreme Court took away reproductive freedom from over 50 percent of the electorate in Dobbs, we were told that if we didn’t like it, we should go ahead and vote on it. Exit polls showed that this is precisely what transpired. Exit polling from Reuters showed that one in four voters said abortion was their top issue and that about six out of 10 voters said they were “dissatisfied or angry” about Dobbs. Pew Research reported that 61 percent of Americans think that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Efforts to go even further beyond what was laid out in the June Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health ruling—to protect “personhood” and to restrict birth control and to monitor miscarriages—only appeal to a tiny fragment of the population.

Anti-choice activists in Michigan tried to say it was all too “confusing”—and it was designed to be, by their side actually—but nobody seems to have been all that confused. Instead, when everyone decided that women were “over it,” they forgot that Dobbs is barely even in its second trimester, and that is often when we’re only just beginning to feel the kicking.

None of this should diminish the concern at the number of rabid anti-choice Republicans who were voted into office this week—people like Ron DeSantis and JD Vance who don’t care at all about bodily autonomy and dignity for women. And over everything else looms the promise that if the GOP wins control of the House or the Senate ,the likelihood of a nationwide abortion restriction or ban is coming next. As election experts continue to point out, gerrymandered districts and the Supreme Court are the other big story this week and that is a story that continues to undermine the will of the voters nationwide.

But and still. If women showed up for Democrats, motivated at least in part by new and visceral fears about their privacy and equality and dignity and bodily autonomy, it will mean that Republicans advocating for ever more draconian incursions into matters that include birth control and interstate travel should have another think. You can suppress and gerrymander and intimidate voters and still they will come for you, if the ideas you stand for are anathema to any meaningful definition of liberty. Women were told unequivocally last June that their right to privacy—their right to family autonomy and bodily integrity—was not enshrined in the United States Constitution. So they organized and connected and worked to protect it in their own state constitutions.

..

[DMac]

Independents like these little boots.
Bravo....fantastique!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yeS1qXI ... Lw&index=2

Fantastique indeed. Where did you find that? LOL.

If you're serious here, I don't know. One of her videos popped up on my feed one day, I clicked on and was an instant fan, she's an incredible talent. Currently in opera school in Oslo (much to my disliking), just turned 20. Amazing natural talent on a couple of levels, watch her play with the camera in the second video. Bettin' she was 16 in that first video, maybe 17-18 in the others. Got a feeling we'll be hearing from this girl.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECPJFXd ... rt_radio=1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nF55BCk ... Lw&index=2
Just a brief intermission entertainment moment, fellas.
Back to the running of the country. No Hershel yet. GO HERSCHEL, you da man!!!

[Brooklyn]

The good news from Lake Wobegone is that the Democrats enjoy a reported clean sweep: Governor/Lt Governor, AG, Secretary of State, Auditor, and both legislative Chambers. Why can't the rest of the country learn to be patriotic like we are?

[PizzaSnake]

Women Remembered to Vote on Abortion

They told us the “Dobbs effect” was a mirage, that women were no longer energized around reproductive rights, that the messaging was all wrong, and that perhaps abortion was neither an economic issue nor much of a “kitchen table” issue after all. Or at minimum, that one poll suggested as much, and that was sufficient reason to move on to the cost of gas, and crime. They told us, implicitly, that women were fickle and inconstant voters, and not to be counted on; and that it was all a mirage, and that what happened this summer in Kansas and Alaska and Michigan and in the New York special election, were all one-offs. All of them.

Keep women, and young voters, and voters of color, out of your modeling about rational self-interest, and you will keep being surprised. In each of the five crucial state initiatives that implicate reproductive rights under state law, abortion rights won. Voters in California, Michigan and Vermont overwhelmingly opted to enshrine Roe in their state constitutions Tuesday night, as did, ruby red Kentucky, where abortion has been illegal since Dobbs came down in June. Montana, the fifth state that put abortion on the ballot with a legislative referendum over its “born alive” law that criminalize health care providers who fail to keep newborns without chance of survival alive for as long as possible, also appears to be headed for defeat, per The New York Times.

When the Supreme Court took away reproductive freedom from over 50 percent of the electorate in Dobbs, we were told that if we didn’t like it, we should go ahead and vote on it. Exit polls showed that this is precisely what transpired. Exit polling from Reuters showed that one in four voters said abortion was their top issue and that about six out of 10 voters said they were “dissatisfied or angry” about Dobbs. Pew Research reported that 61 percent of Americans think that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Efforts to go even further beyond what was laid out in the June Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health ruling—to protect “personhood” and to restrict birth control and to monitor miscarriages—only appeal to a tiny fragment of the population.

Anti-choice activists in Michigan tried to say it was all too “confusing”—and it was designed to be, by their side actually—but nobody seems to have been all that confused. Instead, when everyone decided that women were “over it,” they forgot that Dobbs is barely even in its second trimester, and that is often when we’re only just beginning to feel the kicking.

None of this should diminish the concern at the number of rabid anti-choice Republicans who were voted into office this week—people like Ron DeSantis and JD Vance who don’t care at all about bodily autonomy and dignity for women. And over everything else looms the promise that if the GOP wins control of the House or the Senate ,the likelihood of a nationwide abortion restriction or ban is coming next. As election experts continue to point out, gerrymandered districts and the Supreme Court are the other big story this week and that is a story that continues to undermine the will of the voters nationwide.

But and still. If women showed up for Democrats, motivated at least in part by new and visceral fears about their privacy and equality and dignity and bodily autonomy, it will mean that Republicans advocating for ever more draconian incursions into matters that include birth control and interstate travel should have another think. You can suppress and gerrymander and intimidate voters and still they will come for you, if the ideas you stand for are anathema to any meaningful definition of liberty. Women were told unequivocally last June that their right to privacy—their right to family autonomy and bodily integrity—was not enshrined in the United States Constitution. So they organized and connected and worked to protect it in their own state constitutions.

..

"it will mean that Republicans advocating for ever more draconian incursions into matters that include birth control and interstate travel should have another think."

Think big: constitutional convention and repeal that pesky 19th amendment. That's the ticket!! Justice "witch burner" Alito is all in favor.

[elonmuskrockefeller]

The good news from Lake Wobegone is that the Democrats enjoy a reported clean sweep: Governor/Lt Governor, AG, Secretary of State, Auditor, and both legislative Chambers. Why can't the rest of the country learn to be patriotic like we are?

How soon they forget the riots of 2020...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/us/m ... floyd.html

I am concerned your state learned nothing, and will repeat even more excessive damage. The leaders certainly do not seem to care if your business burns to the ground?

[njbill]

I agree with a lot of what you say here. The reason I pull Desantis' name out of the other governor hats is, like Jared Polis, these two outperform in states which are not completely red or blue. Sarah doing well in Arkansas isn't any more of a surprise than Moore doing well in Maryland.

Two years is a long time. I'd expect to see Desantis 'disappear' back to managing Florida (a job he does very well at, hence the margin), with some serious political pro's being hired to begin the process of crafting a newer softer image.

I am wholly unconcerned about Trump; Trump needs to worry now about having no institutional support should the DOJ come calling; he's going to need friends and money. The GOP will likely pull funding for his lawyers. Yes it will be ugly and Trump will scream, and yes it will cost Republicans some support from the crazy wing, but all of this is healthier in the long run. Once the votes are counted, I'd expect the internal Republican civil war to commence...it will be quick. The end party will be a conservative (again) party with Desantios leading it.

Desantis will be the 2024 R nominee, guaranteed.

True, Arkansas isn't Florida, but my point is popularity in your home state doesn't necessarily translate into popularity nationally.

DeSantis would be advised to do as you suggest, but I don't think he'll have that luxury. Trump is going to announce any day, and DeSantis will have to keep pace. He can't let Trump have the stage entirely to himself for months and months. In 2016 the Rs were up and running by early 2015. I expect the Rs will be in full campaign mode by early next year. It will be interesting to see who else joins the party.

I think we agree DeSantis will beat Trump in the primary (at least that's how it looks now), but that won't deter the Trumpster from putting up a very nasty and expensive fight. He has to keep his candidacy going so he can grift off of it. And it allows him to go up on stage every night and bleat about how unfair everyone is treating him. After last night, he's going to say, "I alone can fix this."

Again, I think a key issue is whether Trump runs third party. I think he will. We shall see.

Democracy was a winner last night. I'd like to say a huge winner, but at this point things are still looking sketchy in Arizona. Not clear if the anti-democracy/pro-autocracy faction will get into power.

[njbill]

If you're serious here, I don't know.

I wasn't ( ) but thanks for the entertaining content.

[Brooklyn]

The good news from Lake Wobegone is that the Democrats enjoy a reported clean sweep: Governor/Lt Governor, AG, Secretary of State, Auditor, and both legislative Chambers. Why can't the rest of the country learn to be patriotic like we are?

How soon they forget the riots of 2020...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/us/m ... floyd.html

I am concerned your state learned nothing, and will repeat even more excessive damage. The leaders certainly do not seem to care if your business burns to the ground?

Elon Rockefeller - Dunno if you're old enough to remember your distant cousin Nelson. While we may have had our differences, I did respect him.

As for Lake Wobegone politics, yes it is always fashionable and politically correct to blame Democrats for the problems that exist including those "riots". But the video tapes shown on YouTube and which I have posted here clearly show it was the cops who started and committed that violence. Further, it was Republicans (your party) that refused to impose police reform legislation thereby creating an atmosphere where the criminal cops could engage in violence and crime with impunity. Had your party imposed these reforms George Floyd would be alive today, Derek Chauvin would be a free man, and the Twin Cities would be FAR safer. Thus, it's not the Democrats who are the problem, it is your party the Republicans who are.

[ggait]

by Bandito » Thu Nov 03, 2022 6:54 pm

youthathletics wrote: ↑Thu Nov 03, 2022 2:16 pm
But the liberals around here double down, b/c, well, all the cool kids are doing it.

They live in an elitist echo chamber that is for sure. It is breathtaking to behold how clueless the holier than thou are on this cesspool of a message board. The best part about it, of course unless the Democrats steal the election again, will be the meltdown of 95% of this place when the Red Tsunami hits. It will be of epic proportions. Their masks and 5th booster won't even help protect them from the reckoning that is about to hit.

Can't wait.

Another classic Petey/Bandito troll prediction predictably goes down in flames.

In other news, GILD stock has been on a tear recently. $83 today. So actually getting close to the $85 Petey recommended 2.5 years ago. I guess those remdesivir sales are finally starting to ramp...

[NattyBohChamps04]

This was a massive win for D's considering midterm history, inflation and Biden's approval rating. Average midterm losses are 28 House seats and 4 Senate seats.

The problem with a narrow house minority for R's is they'll be beholden to the crazies in the party if they want to have enough votes. If that happens it could make for a very tough 2024.

The best part about it, of course unless the Democrats steal the election again, will be the meltdown of 95% of this place when the Red Tsunami hits. It will be of epic proportions. Their masks and 5th booster won't even help protect them from the reckoning that is about to hit.

Can't wait.

But the best news last night, BY FAR, was Mayra Flores has defeated Dan Sanchez in the TX-34 special election, flipping an 84% Hispanic seat Red that Biden won by 13 points in 2020, winning it by 7%!!! Lol. This red tsunami is real, and Latinos are leading the way.

Democrats should ask themselves why Latinos are abandoning their party. But they won’t. I’ll help: inflation, woke lunacy, and Latinx.

Red tsunami, boys. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

I also don't see DeSantis and Rubio outperforming. Democrats and out of state donors weren't spending any money in Florida as it's been solidly red for a few years now. DeSantis was outspending the other guy by like 4-1. Unsurprising results there.

[elonmuskrockefeller]

I agree with a lot of what you say here. The reason I pull Desantis' name out of the other governor hats is, like Jared Polis, these two outperform in states which are not completely red or blue. Sarah doing well in Arkansas isn't any more of a surprise than Moore doing well in Maryland.

Two years is a long time. I'd expect to see Desantis 'disappear' back to managing Florida (a job he does very well at, hence the margin), with some serious political pro's being hired to begin the process of crafting a newer softer image.

I am wholly unconcerned about Trump; Trump needs to worry now about having no institutional support should the DOJ come calling; he's going to need friends and money. The GOP will likely pull funding for his lawyers. Yes it will be ugly and Trump will scream, and yes it will cost Republicans some support from the crazy wing, but all of this is healthier in the long run. Once the votes are counted, I'd expect the internal Republican civil war to commence...it will be quick. The end party will be a conservative (again) party with Desantios leading it.

Desantis will be the 2024 R nominee, guaranteed.

True, Arkansas isn't Florida, but my point is popularity in your home state doesn't necessarily translate into popularity nationally.

DeSantis would be advised to do as you suggest, but I don't think he'll have that luxury. Trump is going to announce any day, and DeSantis will have to keep pace. He can't let Trump have the stage entirely to himself for months and months. In 2016 the Rs were up and running by early 2015. I expect the Rs will be in full campaign mode by early next year. It will be interesting to see who else joins the party.

I think we agree DeSantis will beat Trump in the primary (at least that's how it looks now), but that won't deter the Trumpster from putting up a very nasty and expensive fight. He has to keep his candidacy going so he can grift off of it. And it allows him to go up on stage every night and bleat about how unfair everyone is treating him. After last night, he's going to say, "I alone can fix this."

Again, I think a key issue is whether Trump runs third party. I think he will. We shall see.

Democracy was a winner last night. I'd like to say a huge winner, but at this point things are still looking sketchy in Arizona. Not clear if the anti-democracy/pro-autocracy faction will get into power.

Again, I'd like to pay you a compliment. I think you have some of the best posts here, not partisan nor exaggerated, but very thoughtful. Your posts make me think and rethink my own thoughts, and that's appreciated.

I do think Trump will announce on the 15th. But I am not sold he can get funding any longer; you don't go far in politics without money. He's got enough today to last a while, just not two years. I'd like to see the GOP pull its support for his legal fees. He's burning close to $25 million every month right now for 11 different suits. If it goes personally criminal, no lawyer in their right mind will take the case without a massive retainer.

His upcoming announcement will obviously starve the room of oxygen at least for a few months, but I think he's miscalculating. It's way too soon. He will need massive $$ for a two year runway. Desantis has the luxury now of his own massive war chest with much more to come, as well as not having any need to entangle with national politics.

If Trump ran third party, he seals his fate...democrats win and he spends at least four more years under the DOJ gun. The GOP needs to pull funding, today.

[NattyBohChamps04]

Another classic Petey/Bandito troll prediction predictably goes down in flames.

In other news, GILD stock has been on a tear recently. $83 today. So actually getting close to the $85 Petey recommended 2.5 years ago. I guess those remdesivir sales are finally starting to ramp...

Dang, you beat me by two minutes!

[njbill]

The good news out of Tennessee is that the voters, keeping up with the times, approved a state constitutional amendment banning slavery. The not so good news is 20% of voters voted against it.

Just wow, as the kids say.

[Brooklyn]

Was looking into the news and see that right winger JD Vance won in Ohio. He had been endorsed by tRump. But interestingly, he did not acknowledge or thank the Chump in his victory speech! I wonder how that will be dealt with. Last week there had been a report that he was thinking of dropping out of the race but that was just a ploy to get people to give more money to his campaign. Being a lawyer, you know he would never give up such a lucrative job.