All Things Russia & Ukraine

The odds are excellent that you will leave this forum hating someone.
PizzaSnake
Posts: 5305
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:36 pm

Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by PizzaSnake »

old salt wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 12:46 am Nuclear Non-Proliferation for Dummies. :roll:

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/R ... %20(ICBMs).

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-fr ... emorandum/
Ukraine wanted guarantees or assurances of its security once it got rid of the nuclear arms. The Budapest Memorandum provided security assurances.

Unfortunately, Russia has broken virtually all the commitments it undertook in that document. It used military force to seize, and then illegally annex, Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in early 2014. Russian and Russian proxy forces have waged war for more than five years in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas, claiming more than 13,000 lives and driving some two million people from their homes.

Some have argued that, since the United States did not invade Ukraine, it abided by its Budapest Memorandum commitments. True, in a narrow sense. However, when negotiating the security assurances, U.S. officials told their Ukrainian counterparts that, were Russia to violate them, the United States would take a strong interest and respond.

Washington did not promise unlimited support. The Budapest Memorandum contains security “assurances,” not “guarantees.” Guarantees would have implied a commitment of American military force, which NATO members have. U.S. officials made clear that was not on offer. Hence, assurances.

Beyond that, U.S. and Ukrainian officials did not discuss in detail how Washington might respond in the event of a Russian violation. That owed in part to then-Russian President Boris Yeltsin. He had his flaws, but he insisted that there be no revision of the boundaries separating the states that emerged from the Soviet collapse. Yeltsin respected Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity. Vladimir Putin does not.

U.S. officials did assure their Ukrainian counterparts, however, that there would be a response. The United States should continue to provide reform and military assistance to Ukraine. It should continue sanctions on Russia. It should continue to demand that Moscow end its aggression against Ukraine. And it should continue to urge its European partners to assist Kyiv and keep the sanctions pressure on the Kremlin.

Washington should do this, because it said it would act if Russia violated the Budapest Memorandum. That was part of the price it paid in return for a drastic reduction in the nuclear threat to America. The United States should keep its word.


The US is more than keeping our word under the Budapest Memorandum.
We are enabling the Ukrainians to win this war & to secure their nation's survival & independence.
It is not an open ended defense treaty.
And here’s the problem nicely framed by you. Our, or the US government’s estimation of their integrity and trustworthiness regarding agreements made in the furtherance of nuclear non-proliferation is irrelevant. What we think about ourselves and our conduct makes no difference to people calculating the worth of acquiring a nuclear deterrence. Your position strikes me as sort of Lake Wobegonian:

“Welcome to Lake Wobegon, where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average.”

Garrison Keillor

Or did you miss Garrison’s point?

By the by, how is the US and its word regarded by the Iraqi Marsh Arabs and the various groups of Kurds we have sold down the river? Just because they are different doesn’t make them stupid. In fact, I would regard anyone who took the US at its word as stupid, naive, or deceptive and not someone to conduct relations with.
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
PizzaSnake
Posts: 5305
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:36 pm

Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by PizzaSnake »

a fan wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 12:17 pm
old salt wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 12:46 am Nuclear Non-Proliferation for Dummies. :roll:

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/R ... %20(ICBMs).

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-fr ... emorandum/
Ukraine wanted guarantees or assurances of its security once it got rid of the nuclear arms. The Budapest Memorandum provided security assurances.

Unfortunately, Russia has broken virtually all the commitments it undertook in that document. It used military force to seize, and then illegally annex, Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in early 2014. Russian and Russian proxy forces have waged war for more than five years in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas, claiming more than 13,000 lives and driving some two million people from their homes.

Some have argued that, since the United States did not invade Ukraine, it abided by its Budapest Memorandum commitments. True, in a narrow sense. However, when negotiating the security assurances, U.S. officials told their Ukrainian counterparts that, were Russia to violate them, the United States would take a strong interest and respond.

Washington did not promise unlimited support. The Budapest Memorandum contains security “assurances,” not “guarantees.” Guarantees would have implied a commitment of American military force, which NATO members have. U.S. officials made clear that was not on offer. Hence, assurances.

Beyond that, U.S. and Ukrainian officials did not discuss in detail how Washington might respond in the event of a Russian violation. That owed in part to then-Russian President Boris Yeltsin. He had his flaws, but he insisted that there be no revision of the boundaries separating the states that emerged from the Soviet collapse. Yeltsin respected Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity. Vladimir Putin does not.

U.S. officials did assure their Ukrainian counterparts, however, that there would be a response. The United States should continue to provide reform and military assistance to Ukraine. It should continue sanctions on Russia. It should continue to demand that Moscow end its aggression against Ukraine. And it should continue to urge its European partners to assist Kyiv and keep the sanctions pressure on the Kremlin.

Washington should do this, because it said it would act if Russia violated the Budapest Memorandum. That was part of the price it paid in return for a drastic reduction in the nuclear threat to America. The United States should keep its word.


The US is more than keeping our word under the Budapest Memorandum.
We are enabling the Ukrainians to win this war & to secure their nation's survival & independence.
It is not an open ended defense treaty.
:lol: So you think that a memo---not a treaty----that was already violated by Putin is still in place? And yet I'm the one who's nuts here? Okie dokie.

And it's odd, I seem to remember you mocking these documents calling them "pieces of paper" just a few weeks ago.

Also seem to remember you mocking the JCPOA, telling me that if it wasn't a ratified Treaty, the US didn't have to hold to it. Naturally, you told us this when you were defending Trump's reneging on the JCOPOA.

And yet here you are, lecturing us about a broken memorandum, telling us that the US is honoring its part "therefore", Ukraine can't get nukes.

Good luck with that.

Watch and learn, for a change.

We have three choices:

1. Admit Ukraine into NATO.
2. Watch as the US makes Ukraine a de facto member of NATO like Japan, by parking US military bases there and/or arming them to the teeth
3.Ukraine starts constructing nukes. This may happen no matter what we do.
I predict 2 and 3. The Ukrainians aren’t stupid.
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
User avatar
old salt
Posts: 18831
Joined: Fri Jul 27, 2018 11:44 am

Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by old salt »

We don't need bases in Ukraine. We are already training Ukrainian soldiers at our massive training base in Germany which is perfect for that task.
We'll train their pilots in TX, FL & NM at the same bases we train Luftwaffe & other allies' pilots. No need to be in NATO for that.

https://www.sheppard.af.mil/Units/80th- ... ning-Wing/

The Kurds are doing just fine. A lot better than they would have, had they not fought alongside us in their homeland.
Typical Lax Dad
Posts: 34102
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:10 pm

Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

old salt wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 1:06 pm We don't need bases in Ukraine. We are already training Ukrainian soldiers at our massive training base in Germany which is perfect for that task.
We'll train their pilots in TX, FL & NM at the same bases we train Luftwaffe & other allies' pilots. No need to be in NATO for that.

https://www.sheppard.af.mil/Units/80th- ... ning-Wing/

The Kurds are doing just fine. A lot better than they would have, had they not fought alongside us in their homeland.
Logic trail here suggest Ukrainians would be doing a lot better if we fought along side them…but this is Russia’s homeland.
“I wish you would!”
User avatar
old salt
Posts: 18831
Joined: Fri Jul 27, 2018 11:44 am

Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by old salt »

Typical Lax Dad wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 1:48 pm
old salt wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 1:06 pm We don't need bases in Ukraine. We are already training Ukrainian soldiers at our massive training base in Germany which is perfect for that task.
We'll train their pilots in TX, FL & NM at the same bases we train Luftwaffe & other allies' pilots. No need to be in NATO for that.

https://www.sheppard.af.mil/Units/80th- ... ning-Wing/

The Kurds are doing just fine. A lot better than they would have, had they not fought alongside us in their homeland.
Logic trail here suggest Ukrainians would be doing a lot better if we fought along side them…but this is Russia’s homeland.
Do you think we should be fighting alongside them ?
Typical Lax Dad
Posts: 34102
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:10 pm

Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

old salt wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 4:53 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 1:48 pm
old salt wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 1:06 pm We don't need bases in Ukraine. We are already training Ukrainian soldiers at our massive training base in Germany which is perfect for that task.
We'll train their pilots in TX, FL & NM at the same bases we train Luftwaffe & other allies' pilots. No need to be in NATO for that.

https://www.sheppard.af.mil/Units/80th- ... ning-Wing/

The Kurds are doing just fine. A lot better than they would have, had they not fought alongside us in their homeland.
Logic trail here suggest Ukrainians would be doing a lot better if we fought along side them…but this is Russia’s homeland.
Do you think we should be fighting alongside them ?
I was pointing out the logic trail, assuming one would want the Ukrainians to do better. What I think and what you think is irrelevant to what is or what will transpire on the ground in The Ukraine. I don’t have a warped sense of self importance. I leave those decisions up to folks on the payroll now whose job it is to make those decisions. This ain’t Ricky running bad offense and enough bellyaching can effect change.
“I wish you would!”
User avatar
Kismet
Posts: 5034
Joined: Sat Nov 02, 2019 6:42 pm

Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by Kismet »

Another view

https://www.justsecurity.org/83605/addr ... at-he-was/


Addressing Putin’s Nuclear Threat: Thinking Like the Cold War KGB Officer That He Was
by Douglas London
DocBarrister
Posts: 6687
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:00 pm

Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by DocBarrister »

Kismet wrote: Tue Oct 18, 2022 11:32 am Another view

https://www.justsecurity.org/83605/addr ... at-he-was/


Addressing Putin’s Nuclear Threat: Thinking Like the Cold War KGB Officer That He Was
by Douglas London
A must read. Thank you.

DocBarrister
@DocBarrister
User avatar
MDlaxfan76
Posts: 27090
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:40 pm

Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

Kismet wrote: Tue Oct 18, 2022 11:32 am Another view

https://www.justsecurity.org/83605/addr ... at-he-was/


Addressing Putin’s Nuclear Threat: Thinking Like the Cold War KGB Officer That He Was
by Douglas London
Very interesting and credible.

Not entirely sure that the response to WMD usage should/would not include destruction of Russian military capacities in Crimea, as the author suggests might be smart. His logic that Putin believes he can't lose Crimea...because he believes Crimea "is Russia"... applies to all of Ukraine.

But the massive conventional response to WMD usage that we should make clear will happen, and then follow through with if we have to do so, is spot on.

Putin needs to believe that such consequence is worse for him personally than withdrawal from Ukraine.

ANY mealy-mouthed appeasement sends the totally wrong message.
DocBarrister
Posts: 6687
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:00 pm

Ukrainian General: “Russia’s loss is inevitable. It cannot be stopped, and it will lead to its destruction.”

Post by DocBarrister »

The head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Agency predicts “significant victories” for Kyiv by the end of the year and said “it should be over” by next summer.

“Russia’s loss is inevitable. It cannot be stopped, and it will lead to its destruction,” Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov said on Tuesday. “We will make significant progress by the end of the year. These will be significant victories. You will see it soon.”

He said that he hoped the victories would include the southern Russian-occupied city of Kherson, where Ukraine has made significant progress in recent weeks.

In remarks distributed by his agency, Budanov said: “At the end of spring it should be over. By the summer everything should be over.”

He said that Ukraine intended to return to its 1991 borders. That would mean recapturing Crimea and the areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions occupied since 2014.

Budanov also said that he does not believe Russia will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

“Theoretically, they can, but it will only accelerate the disintegration of the Russian Federation, and they know and understand this very well. They are not as stupid as we would like them to be,” he said.

Budanov said he believes that those in the Kremlin had now coalesced on a central goal for the war in Ukraine: “Not to lose.”

“Some of them are notional ‘doves,’ others are notional ‘hawks,’” he said. “Both these towers understand that things are very bad, they just have slightly different opinions on how to get out of this situation.”

He added, “Some understand clearly that they should stop and look for some kind of peaceful resolution, others believe that Russia will cease to exist if they do not continue, if they are defeated, so to speak.”

“It is no longer a question of winning — it’s now ‘not to lose,’” he said of his assessment of Kremlin thinking.

With a Ukrainian victory, he said, a “very serious political process will begin, connected with changes in the current Russian Federation.”


https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ru ... 316ccef75a

DocBarrister
@DocBarrister
CU88
Posts: 4431
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 4:59 pm

Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by CU88 »

What is Putin giving to Iran for these drones?

https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive ... 022-10-18/

Any response from Israel?
CU88
Posts: 4431
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 4:59 pm

Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by CU88 »

Scott Shapiro@scottjshapiro

Putin agrees to surrender himself to the International Criminal Court in The Hague, but only if John Durham is the prosecutor.

8:53 AM · Oct 19, 2022

:lol:
jhu72
Posts: 14456
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:52 pm

Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by jhu72 »

Image STAND AGAINST FASCISM
User avatar
MDlaxfan76
Posts: 27090
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:40 pm

Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

jhu72 wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 6:57 pm Never a fan, but Pence deserves an attaboy.
Hard to believe this guy actually held his nose and stayed feet away the stink of Trump..."moral values".
DocBarrister
Posts: 6687
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:00 pm

Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by DocBarrister »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 7:24 pm
jhu72 wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 6:57 pm Never a fan, but Pence deserves an attaboy.
Hard to believe this guy actually held his nose and stayed feet away the stink of Trump..."moral values".
Pence is still a wussy.

Trump basically put a hit on him and Pence is still at least cordial with the guy.

Pence needs to come out and openly condemn and oppose Trump.

When Pence does that, then I will give him his due.

I’m skeptical that day will ever come.

DocBarrister
@DocBarrister
User avatar
old salt
Posts: 18831
Joined: Fri Jul 27, 2018 11:44 am

Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by old salt »

Interesting tweet chain from Blake Masters in that article on Pence.
It's hardly "isolationist" imho.

https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/14 ... 1857522694

This invasion is an atrocity and Putin is a thug. Ukrainian resistance is noble. But geography is real. Ukraine is crucial to Russian security, not to ours. We will be living with Russia for decades and centuries, unless we fail at today’s task and blow up the whole world.
Mar 1, 2022

*Obviously* we should not go to war with Russia. The new liberal Doctor Strangeloves, the commentators and Adam Kinzingers of the world calling for no-fly zones or even bombing campaigns, are insane. These people have never learned a single lesson & they’d get us all killed.

Meanwhile John Kerry-esque sentimentality around “climate change” and the “rules-based international order” simply doesn’t work. Preening rhetoric laid on thick over Europe’s provocative powerlessness in energy and defense is exactly how we got here.

This is a European problem invited by weakness and magical thinking. It should cause Europeans to wake up to the reality of a dangerous world. But we cannot let it become a world war.

What to do? We should supply the Ukrainians as they fight for their country. We should support the Europeans as they get up off their knees. We should sanction Russia so that Putin and his cronies feel the consequences. And we should keep our own military out of this.
PizzaSnake
Posts: 5305
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:36 pm

Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by PizzaSnake »

old salt wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 8:24 pm Interesting tweet chain from Blake Masters in that article on Pence.
It's hardly "isolationist" imho.

https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/14 ... 1857522694

This invasion is an atrocity and Putin is a thug. Ukrainian resistance is noble. But geography is real. Ukraine is crucial to Russian security, not to ours. We will be living with Russia for decades and centuries, unless we fail at today’s task and blow up the whole world.
Mar 1, 2022

*Obviously* we should not go to war with Russia. The new liberal Doctor Strangeloves, the commentators and Adam Kinzingers of the world calling for no-fly zones or even bombing campaigns, are insane. These people have never learned a single lesson & they’d get us all killed.

Meanwhile John Kerry-esque sentimentality around “climate change” and the “rules-based international order” simply doesn’t work. Preening rhetoric laid on thick over Europe’s provocative powerlessness in energy and defense is exactly how we got here.

This is a European problem invited by weakness and magical thinking. It should cause Europeans to wake up to the reality of a dangerous world. But we cannot let it become a world war.

What to do? We should supply the Ukrainians as they fight for their country. We should support the Europeans as they get up off their knees. We should sanction Russia so that Putin and his cronies feel the consequences. And we should keep our own military out of this.
Masters? Thiel’s Gollum?
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
Typical Lax Dad
Posts: 34102
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:10 pm

Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

old salt wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 8:24 pm Interesting tweet chain from Blake Masters in that article on Pence.
It's hardly "isolationist" imho.

https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/14 ... 1857522694

This invasion is an atrocity and Putin is a thug. Ukrainian resistance is noble. But geography is real. Ukraine is crucial to Russian security, not to ours. We will be living with Russia for decades and centuries, unless we fail at today’s task and blow up the whole world.
Mar 1, 2022

*Obviously* we should not go to war with Russia. The new liberal Doctor Strangeloves, the commentators and Adam Kinzingers of the world calling for no-fly zones or even bombing campaigns, are insane. These people have never learned a single lesson & they’d get us all killed.

Meanwhile John Kerry-esque sentimentality around “climate change” and the “rules-based international order” simply doesn’t work. Preening rhetoric laid on thick over Europe’s provocative powerlessness in energy and defense is exactly how we got here.

This is a European problem invited by weakness and magical thinking. It should cause Europeans to wake up to the reality of a dangerous world. But we cannot let it become a world war.

What to do? We should supply the Ukrainians as they fight for their country. We should support the Europeans as they get up off their knees. We should sanction Russia so that Putin and his cronies feel the consequences. And we should keep our own military out of this.
🥱
“I wish you would!”
PizzaSnake
Posts: 5305
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:36 pm

Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by PizzaSnake »

If Ukraine had more cash, maybe they could be in pn this “pimpin’”.

“The hottest overseas job market for retired U.S. service members is a tiny Persian Gulf nation that outsources much of its military to foreign advisers and mercenaries.
Over the past seven years, 280 military retirees have sought federal authorization to work for the United Arab Emirates — far more than for any other country, according to documents obtained by The Washington Post under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA).”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investig ... _p003_f001

So, now conflict of interest here, eh?

“Those who have worked as military contractors or consultants for the Emiratis include generals who made their mark fighting U.S. wars in the Middle East. Among them: retired Marine Gen. Jim Mattis, who was a military adviser to the UAE before he became defense secretary in the Trump administration, the documents show.”
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
User avatar
old salt
Posts: 18831
Joined: Fri Jul 27, 2018 11:44 am

Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by old salt »

How did we get here ?

It only took 17 years. Belarus will be next.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/ ... kraine.usa

...& before that, there was...

https://www.voanews.com/a/timeline-of-b ... 29662.html

...& before that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balkan_Wars

What a futile waste of humanity.
Post Reply

Return to “POLITICS”