All Things Russia & Ukraine

[old salt]

From behind the NR paywall, a daunting projection on how this could play out :

https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/09/ ... -red-line/

Putin Approaches the Nuclear Red Line

By JERRY HENDRIX, September 21, 2022

Vladimir Putin’s reach has exceeded his grasp, and he is panicking. Last night, in a major speech to the Russian people, he partially mobilized the Russian military for the first time since World War II. Additionally, he threatened to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine and “the West” in retaliation for a series of what must be called bold-faced lies regarding aggressions against the Russian people. He closed his shocking statements with a warning that he was “not bluffing.”

President Biden has already partially responded to Putin’s bluster, but Putin needs to be told in clear, unmistakable language that if he should choose to follow this path, it would trigger a full response from NATO and the introduction of Western aircraft, ships, and troops into the Ukrainian theater of operations.

Putin’s back is clearly up against the wall. He sold the “special military operation” in Ukraine as an easy win for his nationalist political movement in Russia, claiming that he would reunite the former Russian Empire. Now, seven months and an estimated 70,000–80,000 casualties (more casualties than Russia experienced from a decade in Afghanistan) later, the war has not turned out as he thought it would: Ukrainian forces recently counterattacked, retaking Kharkiv and isolating Russian forces in southeastern Ukraine from their supply lines. To be sure, Ukraine has been able to do this because of aid from the West in the form of intelligence and advanced technology such as the HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System), but the fighting and dying in Ukraine has been done by the Ukrainians themselves, and their sacrifice can only be responded to by us with awe. Putin, however, can only react to this victory — and the bleeding out of his regular, frontline troops — with panic and desperation.

But panic and desperation can be dangerous, and Putin has had reason to doubt the resolve of the West before. Biden’s disastrous and botched pullout from Afghanistan against the advice of his senior military commanders most certainly encouraged Putin to make his initial move into Ukraine in February. Germany’s decision to put its head voluntarily into the Russian energy noose also contributed, and France’s desire for a negotiated end to the conflict with Russia potentially keeping some, if not all, of its illegal territorial gains may have persuaded Putin to hold fast in Ukraine even as his forces were being decimated in the field.

However, Kharkiv has changed the calculus. Now there is a clear, if difficult, path to a Ukrainian victory that would see it eject Russian forces from its soil, and that is a humiliation that Putin knows that he cannot survive. Russia could survive it. It could bring its forces home, reconsider its strategy, and in a few years avoid becoming a wholly owned subsidiary gas station for China, its historical enemy, by reapproaching Europe with a more conciliatory tone. But Putin and his oligarch supporters cannot politically, or perhaps even physically, survive such a defeat, hence the ultimatum.

The West should respond together in a clear NATO declaration: Any introduction of nuclear weapons, or for that matter any weapons of mass destruction, on the European plain will result in a full response from the alliance. NATO aircraft will not just establish a no-fly zone, but rather instantly come to the aid of Ukrainian forces and go on the offensive against Russia. NATO ships will quickly move to sink any Russian ships in Ukrainian ports or operating in the Black or Baltic Seas. Likewise, it will blockade any ships in Russian ports. Meanwhile, NATO troops, who have been quietly pre-positioned in the east over the past seven months, will enter Ukraine. Lastly, key Russian military positions — including command-and-control nodes, fuel dumps, and ammunition depots that sit on the Russian side of the Ukrainian border — will be eliminated.

Only by being this stark can we hope to deter a panicked man at the end of his rope. It must be made “clearer than truth” — as the great Democrat secretary of state Dean Acheson said at the beginning of the Cold War — to those near and around Putin, that should they choose wholesale war, what follows automatically will be upon their heads.

To be sure, this will result in the loss of lives and the destruction of great cities. This is immeasurably sorrowful and regrettable, but the responsibility will not be on the West. The cause of liberty and the support of free peoples is just and must be pursued. Authoritarianism and autocracies cannot simply use might to remake the world in their own image. If Putin uses nuclear weapons and the West does nothing, China’s actions against Taiwan will surely follow as day follows night.

Ukrainians have borne so much pain with such nobility thus far. They are on the brink of a victory that will be both moral and physical. Should Putin upend that progress now with the use of nuclear weapons simply to save himself, it would do incalculable harm not only to Ukraine but to the great democratic experiment. NATO must be ready to act as a coherent entity in support of Ukraine. It should declare that policy openly now and let the internal forces within Russia then make a decision about Vladimir Putin’s future.

JERRY HENDRIX is a retired Navy captain and a senior fellow at the Sagamore Institute.

[PizzaSnake]

From behind the NR paywall, a daunting projection on how this could play out :

https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/09/ ... -red-line/

Putin Approaches the Nuclear Red Line

By JERRY HENDRIX, September 21, 2022

Vladimir Putin’s reach has exceeded his grasp, and he is panicking. Last night, in a major speech to the Russian people, he partially mobilized the Russian military for the first time since World War II. Additionally, he threatened to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine and “the West” in retaliation for a series of what must be called bold-faced lies regarding aggressions against the Russian people. He closed his shocking statements with a warning that he was “not bluffing.”

President Biden has already partially responded to Putin’s bluster, but Putin needs to be told in clear, unmistakable language that if he should choose to follow this path, it would trigger a full response from NATO and the introduction of Western aircraft, ships, and troops into the Ukrainian theater of operations.

Putin’s back is clearly up against the wall. He sold the “special military operation” in Ukraine as an easy win for his nationalist political movement in Russia, claiming that he would reunite the former Russian Empire. Now, seven months and an estimated 70,000–80,000 casualties (more casualties than Russia experienced from a decade in Afghanistan) later, the war has not turned out as he thought it would: Ukrainian forces recently counterattacked, retaking Kharkiv and isolating Russian forces in southeastern Ukraine from their supply lines. To be sure, Ukraine has been able to do this because of aid from the West in the form of intelligence and advanced technology such as the HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System), but the fighting and dying in Ukraine has been done by the Ukrainians themselves, and their sacrifice can only be responded to by us with awe. Putin, however, can only react to this victory — and the bleeding out of his regular, frontline troops — with panic and desperation.

But panic and desperation can be dangerous, and Putin has had reason to doubt the resolve of the West before. Biden’s disastrous and botched pullout from Afghanistan against the advice of his senior military commanders most certainly encouraged Putin to make his initial move into Ukraine in February. Germany’s decision to put its head voluntarily into the Russian energy noose also contributed, and France’s desire for a negotiated end to the conflict with Russia potentially keeping some, if not all, of its illegal territorial gains may have persuaded Putin to hold fast in Ukraine even as his forces were being decimated in the field.

However, Kharkiv has changed the calculus. Now there is a clear, if difficult, path to a Ukrainian victory that would see it eject Russian forces from its soil, and that is a humiliation that Putin knows that he cannot survive. Russia could survive it. It could bring its forces home, reconsider its strategy, and in a few years avoid becoming a wholly owned subsidiary gas station for China, its historical enemy, by reapproaching Europe with a more conciliatory tone. But Putin and his oligarch supporters cannot politically, or perhaps even physically, survive such a defeat, hence the ultimatum.

The West should respond together in a clear NATO declaration: Any introduction of nuclear weapons, or for that matter any weapons of mass destruction, on the European plain will result in a full response from the alliance. NATO aircraft will not just establish a no-fly zone, but rather instantly come to the aid of Ukrainian forces and go on the offensive against Russia. NATO ships will quickly move to sink any Russian ships in Ukrainian ports or operating in the Black or Baltic Seas. Likewise, it will blockade any ships in Russian ports. Meanwhile, NATO troops, who have been quietly pre-positioned in the east over the past seven months, will enter Ukraine. Lastly, key Russian military positions — including command-and-control nodes, fuel dumps, and ammunition depots that sit on the Russian side of the Ukrainian border — will be eliminated.

Only by being this stark can we hope to deter a panicked man at the end of his rope. It must be made “clearer than truth” — as the great Democrat secretary of state Dean Acheson said at the beginning of the Cold War — to those near and around Putin, that should they choose wholesale war, what follows automatically will be upon their heads.

To be sure, this will result in the loss of lives and the destruction of great cities. This is immeasurably sorrowful and regrettable, but the responsibility will not be on the West. The cause of liberty and the support of free peoples is just and must be pursued. Authoritarianism and autocracies cannot simply use might to remake the world in their own image. If Putin uses nuclear weapons and the West does nothing, China’s actions against Taiwan will surely follow as day follows night.

Ukrainians have borne so much pain with such nobility thus far. They are on the brink of a victory that will be both moral and physical. Should Putin upend that progress now with the use of nuclear weapons simply to save himself, it would do incalculable harm not only to Ukraine but to the great democratic experiment. NATO must be ready to act as a coherent entity in support of Ukraine. It should declare that policy openly now and let the internal forces within Russia then make a decision about Vladimir Putin’s future.

JERRY HENDRIX is a retired Navy captain and a senior fellow at the Sagamore Institute.

So what’s your plan? Pucker up and kiss Putin’s “ring”?

Fnck that noise.

Never knew that the Academy offered a major in pusillanimity.

[MDlaxfan76]

I didn't read Salty's post as necessarily drawing such conclusion, however it would be good for him to being clear about that himself.

Seems to me that indeed the West should be clear and steadfast, which it appears to be actually happening. I don't think we need a lot of bluster to do so, but the statements of our allies, including Germany, are strengthening in concert with our own. And actions speak much louder.

[old salt]

I didn't read Salty's post as necessarily drawing such conclusion, however it would be good for him to being clear about that himself.

Seems to me that indeed the West should be clear and steadfast, which it appears to be actually happening. I don't think we need a lot of bluster to do so, but the statements of our allies, including Germany, are strengthening in concert with our own. And actions speak much louder.

I don't know how this is going to play out. I posted that because I think it is a coherent summary of a plausible course of events.

[Bart]

Thought provoking Brookings panel discussions on Ukraine. The first hour is worth a listen -- especially the portions on energy & finances.
The last two hours are self-serving inside baseball & a neocon blowhard. Fiona did not mention Danchenko.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?522998-1/ ... kraine-war

Thanks for this. I did enjoy the first hour.

[Farfromgeneva]

Related to this topic

Uniper Deal Is Lehman Moment for European Energy

State bailout of one of the region’s largest utilities signals that Europe’s energy sector won’t be the same again

Rochelle Toplensky
Updated Sept. 21, 2022 11:43 am ET

Germany’s nationalization of gas giant Uniper, UN01 4.94%▲ announced Wednesday, lays bare the seismic ructions in the once-sleepy world of European utilities triggered by the new Cold War with Russia. Investing in the sector will change dramatically.

The deal ups the ante after the state’s first attempted bailout, announced just two months ago, proved insufficient. The shares plunged to €1.31 and are now down over 90% this year.

Advertisement - Scroll to Continue

There are echoes of the 2008 financial crisis. Even if Lehman Brothers was the bank that didn’t get bailed out, Uniper is similarly too big to fail and German government officials are warning of further bailouts.

After decades of liberalization, there are risks of contagion in what is a very interconnected European power market. Big utilities such as Uniper operate in a host of countries and over 2.7 billion energy-related intercompany transactions were reported in the European Union last year, according to think tank Bruegel.

France nationalized its own power giant EDF in July, but that was a long-discussed plan. Until recently Uniper was a success story. At the start of 2022 the shares were up 315% since E.ON spun it off in 2016, although that admittedly included a premium because many expected Fortum to eventually buy it outright.

Advertisement - Scroll to Continue

There are other European utilities that would be considered too big to fail, but most are much more diversified, making them less exposed. Uniper is a special situation, says Wanda Serwinowska, utilities analyst at Credit Suisse. It was a strong backer of the Nord Stream pipelines and relied heavily on Russian supplies.

Dwindling supplies after the start of the war in Ukraine forced the German company to buy gas on the spot market at much higher prices than its contracted sell-on rates—costing around €100 million a day and adding up to over €8.5 billion so far this year, according to Uniper’s chief executive. Some even worry this latest bailout might again prove insufficient.

It all adds a lot of uncertainty for investors. Uniper’s minority shareholders will have little left after the rescue. Investors in most other European utilities seem to be insulated from bailout risk, but they can definitely count on increased regulation, much like what followed the global financial crisis for banks.

Europe’s energy market was deemed fit for purpose only a few months ago, but expensive bailouts and a new appreciation for energy security have swung the pendulum away from deregulation. National governments and the EU are rushing through emergency measures to protect businesses and households from price rises. Discussions of broader market reform are also accelerating and seem likely to overhaul the merit-order marginal pricing of power, which links electricity prices to gas, much sooner than previously expected.

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Heard on the Street

The first word on what Wall Street is talking about.

In one crucial respect energy is quite different from banking: Europe wants more of it. As long as drilling in their backyard remains wholly unacceptable to most Europeans, diversified non-Russian gas imports as well as wind and solar power will be the region’s long-term paths to energy security and independence.

There is some solace for investors here. While Europe will do whatever it takes to get through the next couple of winters, new regulation seems unlikely to throttle utility returns quite as hard as banking profits were after 2008, because officials know they need to attract significant private capital to build a new clean-energy system.

Write to Rochelle Toplensky at [email protected]

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See some of the leading picks from our Heard on the Street columnists

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[MDlaxfan76]

I didn't read Salty's post as necessarily drawing such conclusion, however it would be good for him to being clear about that himself.

Seems to me that indeed the West should be clear and steadfast, which it appears to be actually happening. I don't think we need a lot of bluster to do so, but the statements of our allies, including Germany, are strengthening in concert with our own. And actions speak much louder.

I don't know how this is going to play out. I posted that because I think it is a coherent summary of a plausible course of events.

I think the question is whether you think Putin, in his desperation, will actually consider nuclear or chemical etc, (I think yes), or whether you agree with that author as to how the West, and especially the US, should communicate warnings so as to prevent it.

The author seems to be suggesting that we need to be much louder and more bellicose in order to be sure Putin understands that the response will be massive and in kind. Is that your view
?

[old salt]

I didn't read Salty's post as necessarily drawing such conclusion, however it would be good for him to being clear about that himself.

Seems to me that indeed the West should be clear and steadfast, which it appears to be actually happening. I don't think we need a lot of bluster to do so, but the statements of our allies, including Germany, are strengthening in concert with our own. And actions speak much louder.

I don't know how this is going to play out. I posted that because I think it is a coherent summary of a plausible course of events.

I think the question is whether you think Putin, in his desperation, will actually consider nuclear or chemical etc, (I think yes), or whether you agree with that author as to how the West, and especially the US, should communicate warnings so as to prevent it.

The author seems to be suggesting that we need to be much louder and more bellicose in order to be sure Putin understands that the response will be massive and in kind. Is that your view ?

I am undecided. I do not have access to the intel necessary to have an informed opinion. ... I just hope that our leaders do.

[DocBarrister]

I didn't read Salty's post as necessarily drawing such conclusion, however it would be good for him to being clear about that himself.

Seems to me that indeed the West should be clear and steadfast, which it appears to be actually happening. I don't think we need a lot of bluster to do so, but the statements of our allies, including Germany, are strengthening in concert with our own. And actions speak much louder.

I don't know how this is going to play out. I posted that because I think it is a coherent summary of a plausible course of events.

I think the question is whether you think Putin, in his desperation, will actually consider nuclear or chemical etc, (I think yes), or whether you agree with that author as to how the West, and especially the US, should communicate warnings so as to prevent it.

The author seems to be suggesting that we need to be much louder and more bellicose in order to be sure Putin understands that the response will be massive and in kind. Is that your view ?

I am undecided. I do not have access to the intel necessary to have an informed opinion. ... I just hope that our leaders do.

The United States for several months has been sending private communications to Moscow warning Russia’s leadership of the grave consequences that would follow the use of a nuclear weapon, according to U.S. officials, who said the messages underscore what President Biden and his aides have articulated publicly.


The Biden administration generally has decided to keep warnings about the consequences of a nuclear strike deliberately vague, so the Kremlin worries about how Washington might respond, the officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive deliberations.


The attempt by the White House to cultivate what’s known in the nuclear deterrence world as “strategic ambiguity” comes as Russia continues to escalate its rhetoric about possible nuclear weapons use amid a domestic mobilization aimed at stanching Russian military losses in eastern Ukraine.


The State Department has been involved in the private communications with Moscow, but officials would not say who delivered the messages or the scope of their content. It was not clear whether the United States had sent any new private messages in the hours since Russian President Vladimir Putin issued his latest veiled nuclear threat during a speech announcing a partial mobilization early Wednesday, but a senior U.S. official said the communication has been happening consistently over recent months.

… Biden administration officials have emphasized that this isn’t the first time the Russian leadership has threatened to use nuclear weapons since the start of the war on Feb. 24, and have said there is no indication Russia is moving its nuclear weapons in preparation for an imminent strike.


Still, the recent statements from the Russian leadership are more specific than previous comments and come at a time when Russia is reeling on the battlefield from a U.S.-backed Ukrainian counteroffensive.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... s-options/

DocBarrister

[Seacoaster(1)]

Y'all probably have seen some of this:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... -in-droves

"Hours after Vladimir Putin shocked Russia by announcing the first mobilisation since the second world war, Oleg received his draft papers in the mailbox, ordering him to make his way to the local recruitment centre in Kazan, the capital of the ​​Tatarstan republic.

As a 29-year-old sergeant in the Russian reserves, Oleg said he always knew that he would be the first in line if a mobilisation was declared, but held out hope that he would not be forced to fight in the war in Ukraine.

“My heart sank when I got the call-up,” he said. “But I knew I had no time to despair.”

He quickly packed all his belongings and booked a one-way ticket to Orenburg, a southern Russian city close to the border with Kazakhstan.

“I will be driving across the border tonight,” he said in a telephone interview on Thursday from the airport in Orenburg. “I have no idea when I’ll step foot in Russia again,” he added, referring to the jail sentence Russian men face for avoiding the draft.

Oleg said he will leave behind his wife, who is due to give birth next week. “I will miss the most important day of my life. But I am simply not letting Putin turn me into a killer in a war that I want no part in.”

The Kremlin’s decision to announce a partial mobilisation has led to a rush among men of military age to leave the country, likely sparking a new, possibly unprecedented brain drain in the coming days and weeks.

The Guardian spoke to over a dozen men and women who had left Russia since Putin announced the so-called partial mobilisation, or who are planning to do so in the next few days.

Options to flee are limited, they say. Earlier this week, four of the five EU countries bordering Russia announced they would no longer allow Russians to enter on tourist visas.

Direct flights from Moscow to Istanbul, Yerevan, Tashkent and Baku, the capitals of countries allowing Russians visa-free entry, were sold out for the next week, while the cheapest one-way flight from Moscow to Dubai cost about 370,000 rubles (£5,000) – a fee too steep for most.

And so many, like Oleg, were forced to get creative and drive to some of the few land borders still open to Russians.

Border guards in Finland, the last EU country that still allows entry to Russians with tourist visas, said that they have noticed an “exceptional number” of Russian nationals seeking to cross the border overnight, while eyewitnesses also said the Russian-Georgian and Russian-Mongolian borders were “collapsing” with overwhelming traffic.

“We are seeing an even bigger exodus than when the war started,” said Ira Lobanovskaya, who started the “Guide to the free World” NGO, which helps Russians against the war leave the country.

She said her website had received over one and half million visits since Putin’s speech on Wednesday. According to Lobanovkaya’s estimates, over 70,000 Russians that used the group’s services have already left or made concrete plans to leave.

“These are people who are buying one-way tickets. They won’t be coming back as long as mobilisation is ongoing,” she said.

Many of those who are still in Russia will feel that time is running out. At least three regions have already announced they will close their borders to men eligible for the draft.

Border agents at Russian airports have also reportedly started interrogating departing male passengers about their military service status and checking return tickets.

After thousands of Russians rallied against the war and mobilisation on Wednesday, some took to social media to criticise protesters for not speaking out earlier, when their country’s troops were committing human rights abuses in Bucha, Irpin and countless of other towns across Ukraine.

“I understand people’s frustration,” said Igor, a 26-year-old IT professional from St Petersburg, who is planning to fly to Vladikavkaz and drive to Georgia, another popular fleeing route used by Russians, next week. “I attended the anti-war protest when Putin launched his invasion, but the authorities just jail everyone.”

Some of the protesters detained in Moscow have subsequently been given draft notices while locked up, according to the monitoring group OVD, further underlying the dangers average Russians face when taking to the streets.

“I think the only way I can personally help Ukraine right now is by not fighting there,” Igor said.

There have also been calls for the EU to support Russians who are looking for a way out of the draft.

The EU Commission spokesperson on home affairs, Anitta Hipper, said that the bloc would meet to discuss the issuance of humanitarian visas to Russians fleeing mobilisation. The three Baltic states said on Thursday, however, that they are not prepared to automatically offer asylum to Russians fleeing the draft.

Even those without any military experience – men who Putin vowed not to call up – are packing their bags.

They point to the ambiguity of Putin’s mobilisation law and point to previous broken promises that he would not call for one.

“Putin lied that there will be no mobilisation,” said 23-year-old Anton, a student in Moscow, referring to the president’s International Women’s Day address on 8 March, when he insisted that no reservists would be called up to fight in Ukraine. “Why would he not lie again about this partial mobilisation?”

Fears have grown after independent website Novaya Gazeta Europe reported, based on its government sources, that the mobilistation decrees allow the Ministry of Defence to call up 1,000,000 people, instead of the 300,000 announced by the country’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, on Wednesday.

For now, Lobanovskaya said, the majority of Russians leaving are men.

The Guardian also spoke to a number of women, mostly medics, who similarly decided to leave the country after reports started to trickle out that Russia was calling up health professionals to the front.

“I know medics are supposed to treat people, that is our duty,” said Tatayana, a doctor from Irkutsk, who bought a plane ticket to Baku for next week. “But I believe the sooner this horrible war stops, the fewer people will die.”

The mobilisation also appears to have spooked some of the very people on whom the regime relies to sustain its war efforts.

“For me, mobilisation is the red line,” said Ilya, 29, a mid-level official working for the Moscow government. “Tomorrow I will be in Kazakhstan.”

One man, the son of a west-sanctioned oligarch due to come back to Russia after his studies abroad to work for his family business, said he no longer planned to do so.

“Well, one thing is clear,” he said, in a brief interview by text message. “I won’t be coming back to Russia anytime soon.”

[Typical Lax Dad]

Y'all probably have seen some of this:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... -in-droves

"Hours after Vladimir Putin shocked Russia by announcing the first mobilisation since the second world war, Oleg received his draft papers in the mailbox, ordering him to make his way to the local recruitment centre in Kazan, the capital of the ​​Tatarstan republic.

As a 29-year-old sergeant in the Russian reserves, Oleg said he always knew that he would be the first in line if a mobilisation was declared, but held out hope that he would not be forced to fight in the war in Ukraine.

“My heart sank when I got the call-up,” he said. “But I knew I had no time to despair.”

He quickly packed all his belongings and booked a one-way ticket to Orenburg, a southern Russian city close to the border with Kazakhstan.

“I will be driving across the border tonight,” he said in a telephone interview on Thursday from the airport in Orenburg. “I have no idea when I’ll step foot in Russia again,” he added, referring to the jail sentence Russian men face for avoiding the draft.

Oleg said he will leave behind his wife, who is due to give birth next week. “I will miss the most important day of my life. But I am simply not letting Putin turn me into a killer in a war that I want no part in.”

The Kremlin’s decision to announce a partial mobilisation has led to a rush among men of military age to leave the country, likely sparking a new, possibly unprecedented brain drain in the coming days and weeks.

The Guardian spoke to over a dozen men and women who had left Russia since Putin announced the so-called partial mobilisation, or who are planning to do so in the next few days.

Options to flee are limited, they say. Earlier this week, four of the five EU countries bordering Russia announced they would no longer allow Russians to enter on tourist visas.

Direct flights from Moscow to Istanbul, Yerevan, Tashkent and Baku, the capitals of countries allowing Russians visa-free entry, were sold out for the next week, while the cheapest one-way flight from Moscow to Dubai cost about 370,000 rubles (£5,000) – a fee too steep for most.

And so many, like Oleg, were forced to get creative and drive to some of the few land borders still open to Russians.

Border guards in Finland, the last EU country that still allows entry to Russians with tourist visas, said that they have noticed an “exceptional number” of Russian nationals seeking to cross the border overnight, while eyewitnesses also said the Russian-Georgian and Russian-Mongolian borders were “collapsing” with overwhelming traffic.

“We are seeing an even bigger exodus than when the war started,” said Ira Lobanovskaya, who started the “Guide to the free World” NGO, which helps Russians against the war leave the country.

She said her website had received over one and half million visits since Putin’s speech on Wednesday. According to Lobanovkaya’s estimates, over 70,000 Russians that used the group’s services have already left or made concrete plans to leave.

“These are people who are buying one-way tickets. They won’t be coming back as long as mobilisation is ongoing,” she said.

Many of those who are still in Russia will feel that time is running out. At least three regions have already announced they will close their borders to men eligible for the draft.

Border agents at Russian airports have also reportedly started interrogating departing male passengers about their military service status and checking return tickets.

After thousands of Russians rallied against the war and mobilisation on Wednesday, some took to social media to criticise protesters for not speaking out earlier, when their country’s troops were committing human rights abuses in Bucha, Irpin and countless of other towns across Ukraine.

“I understand people’s frustration,” said Igor, a 26-year-old IT professional from St Petersburg, who is planning to fly to Vladikavkaz and drive to Georgia, another popular fleeing route used by Russians, next week. “I attended the anti-war protest when Putin launched his invasion, but the authorities just jail everyone.”

Some of the protesters detained in Moscow have subsequently been given draft notices while locked up, according to the monitoring group OVD, further underlying the dangers average Russians face when taking to the streets.

“I think the only way I can personally help Ukraine right now is by not fighting there,” Igor said.

There have also been calls for the EU to support Russians who are looking for a way out of the draft.

The EU Commission spokesperson on home affairs, Anitta Hipper, said that the bloc would meet to discuss the issuance of humanitarian visas to Russians fleeing mobilisation. The three Baltic states said on Thursday, however, that they are not prepared to automatically offer asylum to Russians fleeing the draft.

Even those without any military experience – men who Putin vowed not to call up – are packing their bags.

They point to the ambiguity of Putin’s mobilisation law and point to previous broken promises that he would not call for one.

“Putin lied that there will be no mobilisation,” said 23-year-old Anton, a student in Moscow, referring to the president’s International Women’s Day address on 8 March, when he insisted that no reservists would be called up to fight in Ukraine. “Why would he not lie again about this partial mobilisation?”

Fears have grown after independent website Novaya Gazeta Europe reported, based on its government sources, that the mobilistation decrees allow the Ministry of Defence to call up 1,000,000 people, instead of the 300,000 announced by the country’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, on Wednesday.

For now, Lobanovskaya said, the majority of Russians leaving are men.

The Guardian also spoke to a number of women, mostly medics, who similarly decided to leave the country after reports started to trickle out that Russia was calling up health professionals to the front.

“I know medics are supposed to treat people, that is our duty,” said Tatayana, a doctor from Irkutsk, who bought a plane ticket to Baku for next week. “But I believe the sooner this horrible war stops, the fewer people will die.”

The mobilisation also appears to have spooked some of the very people on whom the regime relies to sustain its war efforts.

“For me, mobilisation is the red line,” said Ilya, 29, a mid-level official working for the Moscow government. “Tomorrow I will be in Kazakhstan.”

One man, the son of a west-sanctioned oligarch due to come back to Russia after his studies abroad to work for his family business, said he no longer planned to do so.

“Well, one thing is clear,” he said, in a brief interview by text message. “I won’t be coming back to Russia anytime soon.”

Thanks for the link. Who would have thought it would have come to this when this conflict first started? I guess Vlad is going to really get angry now.

[DocBarrister]

Russia truly does not deserve to survive as a nation.

Russian troops have raped and tortured children in Ukraine, carried out a “large number” of executions and committed other war crimes, according to a United Nations investigation by legal experts.

Set up by the U.N. to probe the conduct of the war, the Independent International Commission of Inquiry reported its chilling findings Friday in Geneva, describing a long list of abuses and atrocities in four regions.

“Based on the evidence gathered by the commission, it has concluded that war crimes have been committed in Ukraine,” Erik Mose, the chairman of the three-member commission, told the U.N. Human Rights Council.

Mose, a Norwegian judge, said the commission has documented cases in which children have been "raped, tortured and unlawfully confined."

“There are examples of cases where relatives were forced to witness the crimes," he added. "In the cases we have investigated, the age of victims of sexual and gendered-based violence ranged from four to 82 years."

Children also have been killed and wounded in “indiscriminate attacks” by Russian forces using explosive weapons, he said.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russ ... -rcna49168

DocBarrister

[a fan]

Y'all probably have seen some of this:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... -in-droves

"Hours after Vladimir Putin shocked Russia by announcing the first mobilisation since the second world war, Oleg received his draft papers in the mailbox, ordering him to make his way to the local recruitment centre in Kazan, the capital of the ​​Tatarstan republic.

How hard is Obama laughing right now at his quip "the 80's called, and wants its foreign policy back".

Obama got it. Neo-Con Americans and Vladimir Putin don't.

Oh well. Enjoy your mess, Putin.

[ardilla secreta]

After Putin’s announcement, the exodus and alternative solutions became expected.

'How to Break Arm' Becomes Top Google Trend as Russians Face Conscription

Putin would be wise to stay away from open windows.

[old salt]

Y'all probably have seen some of this:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... -in-droves

"Hours after Vladimir Putin shocked Russia by announcing the first mobilisation since the second world war, Oleg received his draft papers in the mailbox, ordering him to make his way to the local recruitment centre in Kazan, the capital of the ​​Tatarstan republic.

How hard is Obama laughing right now at his quip "the 80's called, and wants its foreign policy back".

Obama got it. Neo-Con Americans and Vladimir Putin don't.

Oh well. Enjoy your mess, Putin.

It's the '60's dummy. It's a mess for ALL of us.

Country Joe & the Fish will be opening for Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young on their upcoming Russia tour.

What did Obama do about Putin ? Hurl rhetorical lightning bolts & send Hillary with a misspelled reset button,
then send Victoria Nuland to Kyiv with sandwiches.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Y'all probably have seen some of this:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... -in-droves

"Hours after Vladimir Putin shocked Russia by announcing the first mobilisation since the second world war, Oleg received his draft papers in the mailbox, ordering him to make his way to the local recruitment centre in Kazan, the capital of the ​​Tatarstan republic.

How hard is Obama laughing right now at his quip "the 80's called, and wants its foreign policy back".

Obama got it. Neo-Con Americans and Vladimir Putin don't.

Oh well. Enjoy your mess, Putin.

It's the '60's dummy. It's a mess for ALL of us.

What did Obama do about Putin ? Hurl rhetorical lightning bolts & send Victoria Nuland to Kyiv with sandwiches.

Country Joe & the Fish will be opening for Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young on their upcoming Russia tour.

Zelensky made it bad enough…. we are just making it worse…. Those folks need to lay down their weapons and turn that country back over to its rightful owners.

[Typical Lax Dad]

[a fan]

It's the '60's dummy. It's a mess for ALL of us.

No, it's not. 60's we had boots in Vietnam, and were still doing duck and cover drills.

What did Obama do about Putin ?

Offered Putin peace and a chance to join the 1st world. Old Salt. And you would have understood that just fine if Obama was a Republican.

But he wasn't, so Obama was bad, and Trump was awesome, and shocker, Biden is bad, too.

How'd all that work out for Putin, OS? How's Russia's GDP, Old Salt, and how many times did I point that out to you? Putin could have lobbied Obama as key trading partner when ol' Hillary showed up.

What did he do instead? He blew a bunch of money on stupid military expenses that PLAINLY haven't worked out. Remember when I asked you about Putin's pointless "bases" in Syria? How helpful are those bases now?

I tried to tell you all of this....but you didn't want to hear it. Why? Because when you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

The Soviet empire went broke, OS. It had NOTHING to do with military victories or losses. And Putin missed that memo.

I'll ask the same question now as I did when Putin was rattling his saber: Would you invest money or trade in Russia?

And when you come back with a big fat "no", you'll realize how F'ed Russia is after 20 years of intermittent Putin leadership.

Obama now looks brilliant.....and the people of Russia will now pay the price for the road not taken by Putin. But boy, Putin sure showed that Democrat Hillary what was what, right OS?

[old salt]

It's the '60's dummy. It's a mess for ALL of us.

No, it's not. 60's we had boots in Vietnam, and were still doing duck and cover drills.

What did Obama do about Putin ?

Offered Putin peace and a chance to join the 1st world. Old Salt. And you would have understood that just fine if Obama was a Republican.

But he wasn't, so Obama was bad, and Trump was awesome, and shocker, Biden is bad, too.

How'd all that work out for Putin, OS? How's Russia's GDP, Old Salt, and how many times did I point that out to you? Putin could have lobbied Obama as key trading partner when ol' Hillary showed up.

What did he do instead? He blew a bunch of money on stupid military expenses that PLAINLY haven't worked out. Remember when I asked you about Putin's pointless "bases" in Syria? How helpful are those bases now?

I tried to tell you all of this....but you didn't want to hear it. Why? Because when you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

The Soviet empire went broke, OS. It had NOTHING to do with military victories or losses. And Putin missed that memo.

I'll ask the same question now as I did when Putin was rattling his saber: Would you invest money or trade in Russia?

And when you come back with a big fat "no", you'll realize how F'ed Russia is after 20 years of intermittent Putin leadership.

Obama now looks brilliant.....and the people of Russia will now pay the price for the road not taken by Putin. But boy, Putin sure showed that Democrat Hillary what was what, right OS?

That all makes sense to Americans, given our history & perspective.
It does not take root with the Russian people, given their history & perspective.
All your prattle about Russia's GDP did not prevent them from invading Ukraine,
& they're still awash in cash from energy sales at crisis prices.
How's your 401k doing ? How 'bout the price of your supplies & shipping ?
This war is producing a global recession, hurting Europe & the US a lot more than Russia.
You think this is all a joke that validates your liberal schoolboy reading of history.
Putin is writing history, in blood, from a different perspective.
Keep laughing, you will need a morbid sense of humor before this is over.
Russia is mobilizing, full scale, for the first time since WW II. We minimize that at our own peril.
Russia is mobilizing for war & to you, it's just a stupid political debate.
It's not just Putin, it's the entire Russian nation.

[old salt]

Russia truly does not deserve to survive as a nation.

We've succeeded in chopping away some of the best parts.
Finishing the job won't be as easy.