I basically agree with you on most of this. Of my four scenarios, if BC loses in the quarters or semis, CN will probably not win. We agree there. If BC loses to UNC in the championship game, I suppose it would take a pretty extraordinary game from North to get past the two Carolina women. Maybe I am being too optimistic there and should amend to a 30-40% probability. If BC wins it all, you'd say it's a pick 'em, where I'd give the edge to CN, of course assuming she has a reasonably strong performance. I say that in part because of a long history of the Tewy going to a player on the NC team. I think the politics and optics alone would make it difficult for the committee to shun North. Why would they break from tradition in a coin toss scenario to vote against the most recognized woman in college lacrosse? Yeah, I know, that's not substantive, but I think it reflects reality.njbill wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 9:08 pm Uh oh. I see someone opened the can.
Actually, I think it comes down to Mastroianni and Ortega, but then you were never very good at getting into my head.
The Tewaaraton Award goes to a player on the national champion the large majority of the time, as it did last year. Going into the final four last year, Ortega was the favorite. Not because she’d had an appreciably better year than Scane or North, but because her team was favored to win. North’s team won. She got the award. After all the confetti had settled last year, she deserved to win the Tewy.
But this year is a different year. UNC is again favored to win, which makes Ortega and Mastroianni favorites (slight edge to Ortega). If UNC wins the natty, one of those two will win the Tewaaraton. Is that an absolute 100% lock certainty? No, but it is easily the most likely outcome.
I disagree with your scenarios. I think that if BC loses anywhere along the way – quarters, semis, finals – and if UNC wins, one of the UNC players will win the Tewaaraton. North would be a real longshot. But longshots do win once in a blue moon. Look at the Derby.
If BC wins out and Ortega/ Mastroianni has a good tournament (including UNC making the finals), I give North and Ortega/ Mastroianni even odds (unless North has a bad tourney in which case Ortega/ Mastroianni wins). If Ortega/ Mastroianni don’t play well and North does, North wins.
If Md. wins, and Cordingly has a good tournament, I think she wins the T.
Same with Tyrrell and Syracuse.
Last year the intangible momentum was with North. This year it is with Ortega. I understand you may not see that as you don’t really follow women’s lacrosse.
If I were you, I’d take a long, hard look at this screaming tea leaf: Oretga was voted ACC attacker of the year, not North.
Don’t think your national team point has any merit. Different selectors. Different criteria. Also the entire 2022 season has taken place after the national team was selected. And have you forgotten Mastroianni is on the national team? I guess that gives her a leg up in your book.
You aren’t going to like hearing this, and you’ll call me a hater of course, but North has not had as good a year this year as last. Her goal production (her raison d’etre) is down 25% (yes, the season isn’t over). Why? Partly because she has been hurt in the latter part of the season (as Ortega was last year). Partly it’s because BC doesn’t need her to score quite as much since Medjid had a standout year and Smith is continuing to emerge as a top national player. Partly other teams have gotten better at defending her. And lastly goalies now see her shots better and have adjusted somewhat to her shot speed.
Other North stats (comparing 2022 to 2021) pretty much cancel each other out (some up, some down): assists (19/12); GBs (5/11); TOs (31/34); CTs (1/6); DCs (123/174). Oops, sorry, I’m being a hater again by quoting stats.
I think North has toned down her celebrations. I suspect someone (player or coach) on the national team talked to her about that. I have no problem with North celebrating a big goal in the final game, or even a goal in a regular season game against UNC. What I think people had problems with was her going nuts when she scored her fourth goal in a blowout win over Podunk U.
Bad teammate, good teammate, Duke cloud? None of that matters one whit to me.
I think what people are objecting to here is you calling them haters when they simply disagree with you about North or cite stats that are unfavorable to her. That’s not “hating.”
And it is hypocritical for you to claim others are “tearing North down” when they are simply citing stats or expressing opinions contrary to yours in light of the fact that you do exactly the same thing (cite stats favorable to North and unfavorable to the other candidates).
I don't know enough about the voting procedures to predict the possibility of AM and JO splitting the vote. If it were a one-time secret ballot, I have to believe that some amount of anti-North bias still exists and those voters could break in roughly even numbers for the two Carolina women. Purists who like three-way midfielders could potentially stick to their guns on AM, while people who like point production could go with JO. If, on the other hand, it is more of an open discussion like the tournament selection committee, it would be easier for those inclined to support UNC/oppose North to get a straw poll in advance of the final vote. For better or worse, there is not much transparency around the Tewaaraton process.
Also heard the refs will be assigned to a fourth grade rec game this weekend but only if they can pass a vision test first.
