THE 2019 Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

[DocBarrister]

Go back to your first of forty-four championships, and look at how many places a top notch lacrosse player had to go if he wanted to play at the highest level with a darn good chance of winning a championship. Compare that to today. I don't think it's reasonable to not recognize that top notch players aren't as easily lured to a Hopkins or Cuse. Lot of places you can go today to play at an elite level aside from the money issue (and standing on the sidelines for a year or two...see Malloy and Wisnauskis).

Yet, Hopkins still gets its share of top recruits. Blue Jays have missed just two NCAA tournaments since the institution of the tournament in 1971. No other Division I lacrosse school even comes close to that.

DocBarrister

[OCanada]

And yet some parents of very talented players say cost is s factor in where there kids went to school.

[jhu72]

That's all cool. I get your points. My point is simple: Hopkins is a very different environment for an athlete. It's not like Duke, Yale, Towson, etc. Add in the expense, location, etc..... it's a tough sell, imho. So is Syracuse's pricetag.

Brushing aside the particulars of Hopkins itself is a mistake, imho. That's my point.

Look at what happened at Princeton the nanosecond Tierney stopped getting Admin. support to bring in his favored recruits.

This is something some of us have mentioned in the past. My sense is that the lacrosse team gets less support from the administration than they once did, basically since Daniels came on the scene. A very supportive AD has left for an AD of questionable in my mind interest in the program. I have no idea of her level of support for the team. I doubt it equals that of the previous AD.

[Wood Sticks 4ever]

In my mind, the problem of JHU early recruiting does not come up nearly enough. Anyone look at the recruiting class of 2020 (current HS Jrs.)? JHU has 15 recruits, 13 of which were signed between Sep, 2016 and Feb, 2017 - as 14 year old freshmen. Compare that to Loyola: 8 recruits, and all of them were signed last October thru December - as 16 year old Juniors. Which class do you think will be more college ready?

You want to sign a few top players as 14 year olds, fine. Stanwick, Epstein, Tinney - at most one or two a year. To stock an entire recruiting class like that leads to, dare I say it, slow, undersized players who need to change position to get on the field.

The ER rules are changing so the problem will hopefully go away beginning with the HS class of 2021, but for the next two years there is a real chance we will be stocked with kids who peaked at age 14. And no change in coaching will alter that.

[jhu7276]

unfortunately this is a very mediocre squad....





very disappointing

[jhu72]

UVA has largely had the same problem at least under Dom. What did Tiffany do with Dom's classes?

[Big Dog]

Blue Jays have missed just two NCAA tournaments since the institution of the tournament in 1971.

I love your optimism, Doc, but I gotta ask, what have we done lately? Only two titles this century. Heck, only 2 in last 30 years. The last Memorial Day game was '08. That ain't getting it done.

Over the past 30 years, the dominant teams were (I may have miscounted, but the trend doesn't look great):

Championships
'Cuse - 10
Princeton - 6
UVa - 4
Duke - 3
Carolina - 2
JHU - 2

[DocBarrister]

Blue Jays have missed just two NCAA tournaments since the institution of the tournament in 1971.

I love your optimism, Doc, but I gotta ask, what have we done lately? Only two titles this century. Heck, only 2 in last 30 years. The last Memorial Day game was '08. That ain't getting it done.

Over the past 30 years, the dominant teams were (I may have miscounted, but the trend doesn't look great):

Championships
'Cuse - 10
Princeton - 6
UVa - 4
Duke - 3
Carolina - 2
JHU - 2

Better yet, let’s look at 21st-century titles (2000 to present ... we ain’t usin’ no commy Cuba calendars around here that begin in 2001 ... God Bless the USA!).

Syracuse: 5
Virginia: 3
Duke: 3
Hopkins: 2
Maryland: 1
Loyola: 1
Yale: 1
Princeton: 1
Denver: 1
North Carolina: 1

Looks like Hopkins is top four so far in the 21st-century. I think Hopkins, Princeton, and Yale are also the only programs with national titles in three different centuries.

DocBarrister

[flalax22]

You want to sign a few top players as 14 year olds, fine. Stanwick, Epstein, Tinney - at most one or two a year. To stock an entire recruiting class like that leads to, dare I say it, slow, undersized players who need to change position to get on the field.

And there it is. The lack of awareness that recruiting Shack as an ER, the program missed out on Pat Spencer at the SAME high school school.

[Big Dog]

Looks like Hopkins is top four so far in the 21st-century. I think Hopkins, Princeton, and Yale are also the only programs with national titles in three different centuries.

I like your list better than mine, Doc, but all will not be right with the world until Hopkins is back in its rightful place (on top of that list).

[DMac]

Blue Jays have missed just two NCAA tournaments since the institution of the tournament in 1971.

I love your optimism, Doc, but I gotta ask, what have we done lately? Only two titles this century. Heck, only 2 in last 30 years. The last Memorial Day game was '08. That ain't getting it done.

Over the past 30 years, the dominant teams were (I may have miscounted, but the trend doesn't look great):

Championships
'Cuse 10
Princeton - 6
UVa - 4
Duke - 3
Carolina - 2
JHU - 2

Better yet, let’s look at 21st-century titles (2000 to present ... we ain’t usin’ no commy Cuba calendars around here that begin in 2001 ... God Bless the USA!).

Syracuse: 5
Virginia: 3
Duke: 3
Hopkins: 2
Maryland: 1
Loyola: 1
Yale: 1
Princeton: 1
Denver: 1
North Carolina: 1

Looks like Hopkins is top four so far in the 21st-century. I think Hopkins, Princeton, and Yale are also the only programs with national titles in three different centuries.

DocBarrister

Thanks, Doc, that one brought on a belly laugh.
Got some news for ya, there are eleven banners hanging in the Dome and a buried treasure (maybe not) somewhere, sacraficed so its spirirt could ascend to the gods of lacrosse. They like Cuse.

[DocBarrister]

Blue Jays have missed just two NCAA tournaments since the institution of the tournament in 1971.

I love your optimism, Doc, but I gotta ask, what have we done lately? Only two titles this century. Heck, only 2 in last 30 years. The last Memorial Day game was '08. That ain't getting it done.

Over the past 30 years, the dominant teams were (I may have miscounted, but the trend doesn't look great):

Championships
'Cuse 10
Princeton - 6
UVa - 4
Duke - 3
Carolina - 2
JHU - 2

Better yet, let’s look at 21st-century titles (2000 to present ... we ain’t usin’ no commy Cuba calendars around here that begin in 2001 ... God Bless the USA!).

Syracuse: 5
Virginia: 3
Duke: 3
Hopkins: 2
Maryland: 1
Loyola: 1
Yale: 1
Princeton: 1
Denver: 1
North Carolina: 1

Looks like Hopkins is top four so far in the 21st-century. I think Hopkins, Princeton, and Yale are also the only programs with national titles in three different centuries.

DocBarrister

Thanks, Doc, that one brought on a belly laugh.
Got some news for ya, there are eleven banners hanging in the Dome and a buried treasure (maybe not) somewhere, sacraficed so its spirirt could ascend to the gods of lacrosse. They like Cuse.

Your dispute is with the NCAA, not me. NCAA recognizes only TEN NCAA titles for Syracuse. THAT is an indisputable fact. Maybe it’s a good time to seek a pardon.

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

Looks like Hopkins is top four so far in the 21st-century. I think Hopkins, Princeton, and Yale are also the only programs with national titles in three different centuries.

I like your list better than mine, Doc, but all will not be right with the world until Hopkins is back in its rightful place (on top of that list).

No argument here!

DocBarrister

[Homer]

My point is simple: Hopkins is a very different environment for an athlete. It's not like Duke, Yale, Towson, etc. Add in the expense, location, etc..... it's a tough sell, imho. So is Syracuse's pricetag.

Brushing aside the particulars of Hopkins itself is a mistake, imho. That's my point.

That's probably true. But are Duke, Yale, and Towson very much like each other? To me that list doesn't so much prove your point as suggest how programs can be successful with a wide variety of different institutional challenges and opportunities. Here's another list, of programs with semifinal and/or multiple quarterfinal appearances since 2016:

Albany, Brown, Denver, Duke, Loyola, Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Syracuse, Towson, Yale

What's the institutional pattern? There isn't one. There are big schools and small schools; public and private; big-time football, small-time football, and no football at all; traditional hotbeds and nowhere near hotbeds; good weather and bad; gold-plated academic reputations and middling-to-spotty ones.

This is one reason why I'm skeptical of the "particulars of Hopkins" way of thinking. Why conclude that this one particular institutional profile uniquely makes it impossible to win when the list of successful programs doesn't actually indicate there's any specific formula required? How do we know we're not just cherry-picking some institutional characteristic to concoct a just-so story on behalf of the status quo?

[DocBarrister]

You want to sign a few top players as 14 year olds, fine. Stanwick, Epstein, Tinney - at most one or two a year. To stock an entire recruiting class like that leads to, dare I say it, slow, undersized players who need to change position to get on the field.

And there it is. The lack of awareness that recruiting Shack as an ER, the program missed out on Pat Spencer at the SAME high school school.

Same high school, different year.

Even under the new rules, most teams would have “missed out” on Patrick Spencer, who did not play on the varsity squad until his junior year in high school. Spencer landed where most “late bloomers” do ... at a good regional college near home.

It’s not like early recruiting has harmed Petro ... he’s one of the most successful lacrosse coaches in history. Landing Shack Stanwick (who was a year ahead of Spencer) is hardly a disaster. Just about every coach in the country would have loved landing Shack (209 career points at Hopkins).

DocBarrister

[a fan]

Here's another list, of programs with semifinal and/or multiple quarterfinal appearances since 2016:
Albany, Brown, Denver, Duke, Loyola, Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Syracuse, Towson, Yale

What's the institutional pattern? There isn't one.

Respectfully, this is a very limited view, that leaves out two things.

So, for example, did you know that before last year, Yale had precisely one NCAA playoff win in 20 years? Or that O State, North Carolina, and Brown have missed the playoffs entirely in one of those three years?

Which brings me to the second thing: is that ok for Hopkins fans? Nope. It's not. You're leaving out the most important part of this conversation, and that's the expectations of Hopkins fans. And what the Hopkins fans are saying is that the last three years aren't good enough.

Hopkins made playoffs all three years, and made one QF's. So the next coach has to do far better than that, while also being consistent. Missing the playoffs are no good, and first round losses are the reason everyone on this page is upset in the first place. So that's the context.

Apply that context, and that list gets much shorter. Basically, you're left with Maryland, Denver, Duke, and maybe Notre Dame. I say maybe, because ND doesn't have a championship. Because none of those other programs have had records over the past 10 years, let alone 20, that would have been acceptable at Hopkins. And I think it's important to note that Syracuse and UVa aren't on that short list.

Now looking at that list, Maryland, Denver, Duke and (maybe) Notre Dame are on it. How does Hopkins compare to those schools?

[jhu06]

The peer institutions for Hopkins lacrosse are the ACC schools and Maryland. You measure Hopkins against those, period. Over the last 10 years where does Hopkins rank in that group in number of titles, title game appearances, ffs and ncaa appearances? (Touting conference tournament success and qf appearances are for mid majors, not this program.) Maryland, UVA, Cuse, UNC, and Duke all have titles, Hopkins does not. All 5 of those plus Notre Dame have title game appearances. They've all made almost every tournament except virginia which along with UNC and Maryland got a new coach.

[a fan]

The peer institutions for Hopkins lacrosse are the ACC schools and Maryland. You measure Hopkins against those, period.

Well, if you move the goalposts here, the issue is obvious.

Pretend you're a recruit. Make a thorough on campus visit to each school.

Which one of those Universities bears little resemblance to the others?

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

The peer institutions for Hopkins lacrosse are the ACC schools and Maryland. You measure Hopkins against those, period.

Well, if you move the goalposts here, the issue is obvious.

Pretend you're a recruit. Make a thorough on campus visit to each school.

Which one of those Universities bears little resemblance to the others?

But, but, we have a shiny Cordish Lacrosse Center building! (The best that Maryland casino money can buy!)

And you might meet Bill Belichick!

And we have a Student Success Athletic Director person!

And a Lacrosse Advisory Board to get you a well paying JOB!


(That last point might be the most important...)

[Homer]

Respectfully, this is a very limited view, that leaves out two things.

So, for example, did you know that before last year, Yale had precisely one NCAA playoff win in 20 years? Or that O State, North Carolina, and Brown have missed the playoffs entirely in one of those three years?

Which brings me to the second thing: is that ok for Hopkins fans? Nope. It's not. You're leaving out the most important part of this conversation, and that's the expectations of Hopkins fans. And what the Hopkins fans are saying is that the last three years aren't good enough.

I think you're saying two distinct things. One is that Hopkins fans have unrealistic expectations. Is this true? Let's go to the videotape...

However, I think this team is very close to being one that could win another five games and reach the NCAA tournament.

If everyone fulfills their potential, including the coaches? I can see this team running the B1G, and I mean 7-0 and a top-four seed. That’s not likely to happen, but this much maligned team has that much potential.

I will “settle” for another 4 or 5 wins. Blue Jays should be aspiring to much, much more.

DocBarrister

OK.


The second claim is that expectations are unrealistic because there are things about JHU as a school, that no coach can affect, that set Hopkins' ceiling for success lower than that of most of the programs they compete with. Implied is that that ceiling is in fact reasonably close to what the current Hopkins staff is achieving.

Is this true? I'm not telling you definitively it's not. I think at this point it's premature and unproven. And a big reason for that is because the same kinds of thing could've been -- and, often, were -- said about many other programs just before they made changes that led to big improvement.

That doesn't mean the "particulars of Hopkins"-type factors you're talking about aren't real and don't matter. What I'd look to as a model are staffs that have come in with a coherent idea about the "particulars of Loyola" or "particulars of Towson" or "particulars of Yale" or whatever and plan for turning those from weaknesses into strengths. Maybe the current JHU staff is already doing that as well as anybody possibly could, but I think it's getting easier to be skeptical.