All Things Russia & Ukraine

[dislaxxic]

No doubt about it, Hillary Derangement Syndrome is MUCH more pervasive, and a hundred more times debilitating to the body politic than TDS EVER was or EVER will be.

The person at the top is only the visible symbol of an administration. The guiding principles, the people put in place across the government, have SO much more to do with effective government for our country.

Donald trump could not have been a WORSE choice for ALL of us. Look at the state of affairs we have now. Trump is pure poison on the body politic, on our country in general, and on ways in which citizens think about their leaders.

..

[MDlaxfan76]

...as I was hoping and saying on here from very early days, the Ukrainians did get drone support from Turkey, which they already had and it looks like they're getting much more only 100 small backpack switchblades from the US, not MQ-9's with missiles & bombs...and more and more anti missile capabilities. have the Slovaks, or any other NATO users, agreed to treansfer their S-300's yet ?

Personally, I think Biden made a call that was premeditated, if not pre-wired. He "says" he was just expressing his "personal moral outrage" (and surely that does indeed capture it), but this feels much more like my old pal's negotiating strategy of letting something offensive pop out of his mouth, then pull back, saying 'did I really say that?' ohh my...while getting the point across crystal clear. keep polishing that turd.

no real sign that Putin is prepared to step back other than as forced to do so. So, anything immediate is just naive wishful thinking.
...a E Ukraine/N Korea of Europe would not be his choice, but a reality he would be forced to accept as the best he can get (for the foreseeable future).

man, you really are eager as all get out to be negative about Biden.
Do we call that BDS?

You're also pitching super hard an outcome that most likely keeps Putin in power and costs the international rule of law...really, that's what you want?

There is a concept you don't seem to be able to grasp. When I opine on what I estimate is likely to happen, it does not mean I hope that is what happens, or what I am "rooting" for.

Based on your reaction -- rah rah cheerleading is the only opinion tolerated.

You may be overstating & overestimating the amount of military aid we have provided & what can continue to be provided.
The reporting on this is very sketchy, for obvious reasons.

You may be pleased with the extension of the destruction & loss of life, if the ultimate outcome is a humiliating defeat for Putin. I don't think you have considered how long Putin can continue the war & what that may lead to.

Biden is fine when he reads what his speechwriters feed him in a quiet understated statesman's tone, befitting the most powerful leader in the world. He needs to lose the faux yelling, tough guy schtick. Putin is KGB, not Corn Pop.
I don't care about Biden's personal feelings or if he thinks that Putin is a war criminal.
This is not the time for that. Get in the fight Joe or STFU, your incoherent ramblings are not helping out.
Follow the example of the leaders of our allies.

The red doesn't look like what you "estimate is likely to happen".

But ok, let's just say that I don't think that the Ukrainians trust anything Putin or his negotiators say, promise, commit...so won't be willing to accept a solution short of Russia's expulsion from Ukraine and then alliance with the West in support of capabilities to repel any such attacks in the future. I also "estimate" that Putin won't retreat unless totally defeated and removed from office by his military.

That's also what I "estimate is likely to happen" because I don't see either side being satisfied with anything you are suggesting. No doubt lives would be saved, but neither side is unwilling to sacrifice to achieve their objectives.

The question then is whether we should, as you suggest, pressure the Ukrainians to surrender, or alternatively provide them with the resources to win, understanding that there are prices to be paid and risks incurred with the latter.

As to Biden, I quite disagree. He's rallying the world, giving voice to the moral outrage, and speaking to the Russians who ultimately will need to remove Putin in order for this to end. the Russian military command does have access to western media, so they'll know of this call, as well as the characterization of these acts as war crimes. They'll ultimately need to remove Putin and be on that side of this problem in order to avoid being tried for those war crimes. some will choose to stand with Putin, but we'll need some to not do so.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/putins-war ... eatst_pos2

Mr. Putin wanted a weaker Europe, increasingly separated from the U.S. It looks as if he’s going to get exactly the opposite. Mr. Putin’s war, so far at least, looks set to promote the emergence of a Europe that is militarily stronger and more deeply engaged with the U.S. than at any time since the end of the Cold War.

Guess who was helping….. but he couldn’t even do that right. Long track record of having his pockets turned inside out.

^^^TDS^^^ ...
Russia started massing troops on Ukraine's border less than 2 mos after Biden took office.

As a Master of the Universe, what is your prediction of the global economic impact of this splendid little war ?
What will be the cost of standing up to Putin ?

If he even answers, it will be with some stupid video...the faux-hipster-establishment-lackey

In their zeal to avenge what they believe to be Putin's influence on the 2016 election outcome, the sad war mongers on here don't really care that Ukraine will be destroyed in the process, and fail to understand that by escalating the war may get us all killed.

BTW, the 2016 election results had nothing to do with Putin and everything to do with Hillary being an incompetent, very disliked candidate. Arguably, only Kamala could be worse, if they decide to run her.

Kamala and Maxine Waters are running…. Could not find video.

[Farfromgeneva]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/putins-war ... eatst_pos2

Mr. Putin wanted a weaker Europe, increasingly separated from the U.S. It looks as if he’s going to get exactly the opposite. Mr. Putin’s war, so far at least, looks set to promote the emergence of a Europe that is militarily stronger and more deeply engaged with the U.S. than at any time since the end of the Cold War.

Guess who was helping….. but he couldn’t even do that right. Long track record of having his pockets turned inside out.

^^^TDS^^^ ...
Russia started massing troops on Ukraine's border less than 2 mos after Biden took office.

As a Master of the Universe, what is your prediction of the global economic impact of this splendid little war ?
What will be the cost of standing up to Putin ?

If he even answers, it will be with some stupid video...the faux-hipster-establishment-lackey

In their zeal to avenge what they believe to be Putin's influence on the 2016 election outcome, the sad war mongers on here don't really care that Ukraine will be destroyed in the process, and fail to understand that by escalating the war may get us all killed.

BTW, the 2016 election results had nothing to do with Putin and everything to do with Hillary being an incompetent, very disliked candidate. Arguably, only Kamala could be worse, if they decide to run her.

What’s the point of this comment other than to be an angry bitter douche?

[kramerica.inc]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/putins-war ... eatst_pos2

Mr. Putin wanted a weaker Europe, increasingly separated from the U.S. It looks as if he’s going to get exactly the opposite. Mr. Putin’s war, so far at least, looks set to promote the emergence of a Europe that is militarily stronger and more deeply engaged with the U.S. than at any time since the end of the Cold War.

Guess who was helping….. but he couldn’t even do that right. Long track record of having his pockets turned inside out.

^^^TDS^^^ ...
Russia started massing troops on Ukraine's border less than 2 mos after Biden took office.

As a Master of the Universe, what is your prediction of the global economic impact of this splendid little war ?
What will be the cost of standing up to Putin ?

If he even answers, it will be with some stupid video...the faux-hipster-establishment-lackey

In their zeal to avenge what they believe to be Putin's influence on the 2016 election outcome, the sad war mongers on here don't really care that Ukraine will be destroyed in the process, and fail to understand that by escalating the war may get us all killed.

BTW, the 2016 election results had nothing to do with Putin and everything to do with Hillary being an incompetent, very disliked candidate. Arguably, only Kamala could be worse, if they decide to run her.

What’s the point of this comment other than to be an angry bitter douche?

I dont read much bitterness.

I think he pretty accurately portrays the thoughts of my wife's liberal family. They (for some reason) have been very anti-Russia since 2016, but cool with communism otherwise, even going so far as to visit Cuba when Obama lifted the travel ban. Perhaps it is the whole supposed slight on Hill's campaign?

I think he nails Hillary and Kamala pretty well. His comments do portray their public reputation flaws.

[Farfromgeneva]

Faux hipster establishment lackey?

Because he knows the person in any way or is some expert in reading other people. But you don’t see the tired bitterness from the person making this allegation? It’s pathetic. And soft. And useless except to be a jerk.

Do you think videos can’t speak or explain anything because the same person taking shots talks about jerking odd to YouTube videos all the time only it’s his preferred brilliant thinkers. So add hypocritical to bitter, pathetic and soft. The guy flat out rabbit punches in the back of heads and runs off that’s his entire MO.

[Farfromgeneva]

Putin’s Scheme to Rally the Ruble Could Run Out of Gas
Even if Russia succeeds in selling energy in rubles, it cannot replicate the underlying reasons for the dollar’s impact on the pricing of trade

Roughly 40% of global trade is invoiced in dollars.

After making the ruble unpalatable to investors and savers, President Vladimir Putin is trying to engineer extra demand for the Russian currency from its only remaining market: captive commodity buyers. But that well may be almost dry.

On Wednesday the ruble rose back to around where it was on Feb. 24, the day Russia first invaded Ukraine, both against the U.S. dollar and the euro. Capital controls and interest rates increasing to 20% from 9.5% are among the reasons why the exchange rate has decoupled from the Russian economy, which is forecast to contract 5.7% this year due to the West’s sanctions, according to FocusEconomics.

The currency’s surprising strength in recent days follows Mr. Putin’s announcement that he wants Europe to pay for natural gas in rubles, rather than euros and dollars.

Excluding energy exports from the sanctions has given the ruble a floor. While Russia has been frozen out of roughly $300 billion of its foreign reserves, its current-account surplus is still likely to bring in more than $20 billion every month. The European Union buys 40% of its gas and 30% of its oil from Russia.

If Mr. Putin truly wants to leverage this dependency into additional demand for his currency, gas may only be the beginning.

Roughly 40% of global trade is invoiced in dollars, even though the U.S. share of exports is only 10%. Research by the International Monetary Fund finds that the prices of traded goods move with the greenback, even in cases where neither country uses the dollar and their bilateral exchange rate shifts in some other direction. It shows why invoicing in your own currency can give you power: Since prices are “sticky,” foreign buyers pay more when the exchange rate increases. This is what Russia could get from ruble invoicing, University of Reading Professor Alexander Mihailov argued Tuesday.

The dollar has a big influence over global trade because many​non-U.S. transactions are invoiced in greenbacks...

Yet, though gas is a somewhat segmented market, Russia isn’t a big exporter of differentiated goods with sticky prices. Instead it is a mammoth seller of commodities, the prices of which fluctuate in real time and move to offset changes in the dollar.

Making importers use the ruble would make it more liquid, but wouldn’t necessarily bring it more buyers. When exporters get paid in foreign currencies, they convert a lot of it into domestic money anyway, to pay workers and suppliers. In Russia, the government already requires them to exchange 80% of their revenues, which serves to channel dollars and euros through unsanctioned banks to importers who need them.

Sure, forcing foreigners to buy the ruble would take the conversion rate on some trades up to 100% and perhaps give the central bank some extra control over reserve management. But Moscow could also mandate state-owned Gazprom to sell more euros.

Mr. Putin’s threats to rewrite energy contracts—which the Group of Seven have already called “not acceptable”—are likely bad for the ruble in the long run. They escalate tensions and accelerate European plans to buy gas elsewhere.

...but commodities are well known to lean against exchange​rates, making the currency of invoice less important

There is a mistaken belief that dollar invoicing is the cause, rather than the consequence, of the greenback’s “exorbitant privilege” within the monetary system, which is instead built upon the U.S.’s hegemonic role in the global economy. Russia depends on the West for key technologies in sectors like semiconductors, aviation and even energy exploration and extraction, which will be hit hard by sanctions. In time, commodity export volumes themselves may be lower.

The ruble’s value comes from how much Russian stuff foreigners buy, not the currency in which they pay. Eventually, the exchange rate will reflect it.

[MDlaxfan76]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/putins-war ... eatst_pos2

Mr. Putin wanted a weaker Europe, increasingly separated from the U.S. It looks as if he’s going to get exactly the opposite. Mr. Putin’s war, so far at least, looks set to promote the emergence of a Europe that is militarily stronger and more deeply engaged with the U.S. than at any time since the end of the Cold War.

Guess who was helping….. but he couldn’t even do that right. Long track record of having his pockets turned inside out.

^^^TDS^^^ ...
Russia started massing troops on Ukraine's border less than 2 mos after Biden took office.

As a Master of the Universe, what is your prediction of the global economic impact of this splendid little war ?
What will be the cost of standing up to Putin ?

If he even answers, it will be with some stupid video...the faux-hipster-establishment-lackey

In their zeal to avenge what they believe to be Putin's influence on the 2016 election outcome, the sad war mongers on here don't really care that Ukraine will be destroyed in the process, and fail to understand that by escalating the war may get us all killed.

BTW, the 2016 election results had nothing to do with Putin and everything to do with Hillary being an incompetent, very disliked candidate. Arguably, only Kamala could be worse, if they decide to run her.

What’s the point of this comment other than to be an angry bitter douche?

I dont read much bitterness.

I think he pretty accurately portrays the thoughts of my wife's liberal family. They (for some reason) have been very anti-Russia since 2016, but cool with communism otherwise, even going so far as to visit Cuba when Obama lifted the travel ban. Perhaps it is the whole supposed slight on Hill's campaign?

I think he nails Hillary and Kamala pretty well. His comments do portray their public reputation flaws.

I read right-wing bitterness, conspiracy theories, distrust of experts, scientists, and government as the core ideology.

But hey, if one sees through those lenses, Putin's a genius, should get what he wants, the US should shrink its influence in the world and just focus on keeping the "Other" out. Who are the allies internationally? Right wing dictators.

We've seen this before in US history.

[tech37]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/putins-war ... eatst_pos2

Mr. Putin wanted a weaker Europe, increasingly separated from the U.S. It looks as if he’s going to get exactly the opposite. Mr. Putin’s war, so far at least, looks set to promote the emergence of a Europe that is militarily stronger and more deeply engaged with the U.S. than at any time since the end of the Cold War.

Guess who was helping….. but he couldn’t even do that right. Long track record of having his pockets turned inside out.

^^^TDS^^^ ...
Russia started massing troops on Ukraine's border less than 2 mos after Biden took office.

As a Master of the Universe, what is your prediction of the global economic impact of this splendid little war ?
What will be the cost of standing up to Putin ?

If he even answers, it will be with some stupid video...the faux-hipster-establishment-lackey

In their zeal to avenge what they believe to be Putin's influence on the 2016 election outcome, the sad war mongers on here don't really care that Ukraine will be destroyed in the process, and fail to understand that by escalating the war may get us all killed.

BTW, the 2016 election results had nothing to do with Putin and everything to do with Hillary being an incompetent, very disliked candidate. Arguably, only Kamala could be worse, if they decide to run her.

What’s the point of this comment other than to be an angry bitter douche?

I dont read much bitterness.

I think he pretty accurately portrays the thoughts of my wife's liberal family. They (for some reason) have been very anti-Russia since 2016, but cool with communism otherwise, even going so far as to visit Cuba when Obama lifted the travel ban. Perhaps it is the whole supposed slight on Hill's campaign?

I think he nails Hillary and Kamala pretty well. His comments do portray their public reputation flaws.

I read right-wing bitterness, conspiracy theories, distrust of experts, scientists, and government as the core ideology.

But hey, if one sees through those lenses, Putin's a genius, should get what he wants, the US should shrink its influence in the world and just focus on keeping the "Other" out. Who are the allies internationally? Right wing dictators.

We've seen this before in US history.

Sadly, mdlax is willing to see Ukraine destroyed and many more Ukrainians killed in order to destroy Putin's military. Some of us want to see an immediate cease fire. Then deal with Putin or let the Russian people deal with him once WW3 is averted.

"right-wing bitterness, conspiracy theories, distrust of experts, scientists, and government as the core ideology" = just silly.

[MDlaxfan76]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/putins-war ... eatst_pos2

Mr. Putin wanted a weaker Europe, increasingly separated from the U.S. It looks as if he’s going to get exactly the opposite. Mr. Putin’s war, so far at least, looks set to promote the emergence of a Europe that is militarily stronger and more deeply engaged with the U.S. than at any time since the end of the Cold War.

Guess who was helping….. but he couldn’t even do that right. Long track record of having his pockets turned inside out.

^^^TDS^^^ ...
Russia started massing troops on Ukraine's border less than 2 mos after Biden took office.

As a Master of the Universe, what is your prediction of the global economic impact of this splendid little war ?
What will be the cost of standing up to Putin ?

If he even answers, it will be with some stupid video...the faux-hipster-establishment-lackey

In their zeal to avenge what they believe to be Putin's influence on the 2016 election outcome, the sad war mongers on here don't really care that Ukraine will be destroyed in the process, and fail to understand that by escalating the war may get us all killed.

BTW, the 2016 election results had nothing to do with Putin and everything to do with Hillary being an incompetent, very disliked candidate. Arguably, only Kamala could be worse, if they decide to run her.

What’s the point of this comment other than to be an angry bitter douche?

I dont read much bitterness.

I think he pretty accurately portrays the thoughts of my wife's liberal family. They (for some reason) have been very anti-Russia since 2016, but cool with communism otherwise, even going so far as to visit Cuba when Obama lifted the travel ban. Perhaps it is the whole supposed slight on Hill's campaign?

I think he nails Hillary and Kamala pretty well. His comments do portray their public reputation flaws.

I read right-wing bitterness, conspiracy theories, distrust of experts, scientists, and government as the core ideology.

But hey, if one sees through those lenses, Putin's a genius, should get what he wants, the US should shrink its influence in the world and just focus on keeping the "Other" out. Who are the allies internationally? Right wing dictators.

We've seen this before in US history.

Sadly, mdlax is willing to see Ukraine destroyed and many more Ukrainians killed in order to destroy Putin's military. Some of us want to see an immediate cease fire. Then deal with Putin or let the Russian people deal with him once WW3 is averted.

"right-wing bitterness, conspiracy theories, distrust of experts, scientists, and government as the core ideology" = just silly.

Except it's not a laughing matter. War crimes are being committed.

"want to see an immediate cease fire"...

ok, what's your assessment of Putin's willingness for an "immediate cease fire"???
What would it take for him to stop the missiles and bombs?
Surrender? Surrender of everything Russia occupies?

And who in their right mind would believe he's actually going to honor a cease fire?

[DocBarrister]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/putins-war ... eatst_pos2

Mr. Putin wanted a weaker Europe, increasingly separated from the U.S. It looks as if he’s going to get exactly the opposite. Mr. Putin’s war, so far at least, looks set to promote the emergence of a Europe that is militarily stronger and more deeply engaged with the U.S. than at any time since the end of the Cold War.

Guess who was helping….. but he couldn’t even do that right. Long track record of having his pockets turned inside out.

^^^TDS^^^ ...
Russia started massing troops on Ukraine's border less than 2 mos after Biden took office.

As a Master of the Universe, what is your prediction of the global economic impact of this splendid little war ?
What will be the cost of standing up to Putin ?

If he even answers, it will be with some stupid video...the faux-hipster-establishment-lackey

In their zeal to avenge what they believe to be Putin's influence on the 2016 election outcome, the sad war mongers on here don't really care that Ukraine will be destroyed in the process, and fail to understand that by escalating the war may get us all killed.

BTW, the 2016 election results had nothing to do with Putin and everything to do with Hillary being an incompetent, very disliked candidate. Arguably, only Kamala could be worse, if they decide to run her.

What’s the point of this comment other than to be an angry bitter douche?

I dont read much bitterness.

I think he pretty accurately portrays the thoughts of my wife's liberal family. They (for some reason) have been very anti-Russia since 2016, but cool with communism otherwise, even going so far as to visit Cuba when Obama lifted the travel ban. Perhaps it is the whole supposed slight on Hill's campaign?

I think he nails Hillary and Kamala pretty well. His comments do portray their public reputation flaws.

I read right-wing bitterness, conspiracy theories, distrust of experts, scientists, and government as the core ideology.

But hey, if one sees through those lenses, Putin's a genius, should get what he wants, the US should shrink its influence in the world and just focus on keeping the "Other" out. Who are the allies internationally? Right wing dictators.

We've seen this before in US history.

Sadly, mdlax is willing to see Ukraine destroyed and many more Ukrainians killed in order to destroy Putin's military. Some of us want to see an immediate cease fire. Then deal with Putin or let the Russian people deal with him once WW3 is averted.

"right-wing bitterness, conspiracy theories, distrust of experts, scientists, and government as the core ideology" = just silly.

This is completely delusional and reflects a profound misunderstanding of the current situation.

It is Putin, not President Zelenskyy (and certainly not President Biden) who opposes an immediate cease fire.

Right now, Putin doesn’t have the leverage to coerce a negotiated peace that he would find acceptable. The world already knows his playbook in these types of situations (see Chechnya, Georgia, and Syria) … he indiscriminately bombs and kills civilians until resistance and the will to fight are broken.

But that play may not work in Ukraine. Ukraine has the full support of President Biden, who unlike his three predecessors, has no illusions about the kind of thug Putin is. Ukraine has a generational leader in President Zelenskyy, who unlike the last president of Afghanistan, is never going to leave his people or his country. Putin’s military force is also suffering an astounding casualty rate, which may not be sustainable for more than a few months.

Putin may yet try to force a surrender with attacks utilizing weapons of mass destruction, but he otherwise may be facing a stunning military defeat on the ground.

A unilateral cease fire by Ukraine will never happen. Putin, the war criminal, would never reciprocate unless he is forced to do so.

Unfortunately, Putin is likely to continue bombing Ukrainian civilians for months to come.

The pro-Putin, pro-fascist acolytes trying to save Putin from his own horrifying blunders are wasting their time … Putin has no concern for dying children or the commission of crimes against humanity.

Putin will not compromise until the Ukrainians absolutely force his hand.

That is the situation at hand.

DocBarrister

[a fan]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/putins-war ... eatst_pos2

Mr. Putin wanted a weaker Europe, increasingly separated from the U.S. It looks as if he’s going to get exactly the opposite. Mr. Putin’s war, so far at least, looks set to promote the emergence of a Europe that is militarily stronger and more deeply engaged with the U.S. than at any time since the end of the Cold War.

Guess who was helping….. but he couldn’t even do that right. Long track record of having his pockets turned inside out.

^^^TDS^^^ ...
Russia started massing troops on Ukraine's border less than 2 mos after Biden took office.

As a Master of the Universe, what is your prediction of the global economic impact of this splendid little war ?
What will be the cost of standing up to Putin ?

If he even answers, it will be with some stupid video...the faux-hipster-establishment-lackey

In their zeal to avenge what they believe to be Putin's influence on the 2016 election outcome, the sad war mongers on here don't really care that Ukraine will be destroyed in the process, and fail to understand that by escalating the war may get us all killed.

BTW, the 2016 election results had nothing to do with Putin and everything to do with Hillary being an incompetent, very disliked candidate. Arguably, only Kamala could be worse, if they decide to run her.

What’s the point of this comment other than to be an angry bitter douche?

I dont read much bitterness.

I think he pretty accurately portrays the thoughts of my wife's liberal family. They (for some reason) have been very anti-Russia since 2016, but cool with communism otherwise, even going so far as to visit Cuba when Obama lifted the travel ban. Perhaps it is the whole supposed slight on Hill's campaign?

Obviously it was because US Intel told us that Putin was actively messing with our elections. And had even gone so far as to hack their way into accessing at least one State's voter rolls. Putin has been attacking our nation, and pumping our people full of disinformation. That's why. Why so many Republicans on the board simply don't care about this is beyond my understanding.

[old salt]

The US & our allies - the ones providing the weapons & financial aid & levying sanctions - have the leverage to force a cease fire.

[RedFromMI]

The US & our allies - the ones providing the weapons & financial aid & levying sanctions - have the leverage to force a cease fire.

But they should not force such a cease fire until it is clear that it would lead to some sort of more lasting even if still temporary in the long term sense.

Not sure Putin is at the point where he would accept any "cease fire" without making gains beyond where he is currently. This is highly unfortunate, but the West should not be rewarding Putin in any way for his behavior.

[old salt]

The US & our allies - the ones providing the weapons & financial aid & levying sanctions - have the leverage to force a cease fire.

But they should not force such a cease fire until it is clear that it would lead to some sort of more lasting even if still temporary in the long term sense.

Not sure Putin is at the point where he would accept any "cease fire" without making gains beyond where he is currently. This is highly unfortunate, but the West should not be rewarding Putin in any way for his behavior.

There will soon come a point in the fighting when it is in Putin's interest to accept a cease fire & consolidate his gains.

If the West's criteria is to not reward Putin without any territorial gain, this war could drag on for years.
Are the direct & indirect costs in lives, damages & disruption worth it ? Don't discount our EU allies influence.

[MDlaxfan76]

The US & our allies - the ones providing the weapons & financial aid & levying sanctions - have the leverage to force a cease fire.

But they should not force such a cease fire until it is clear that it would lead to some sort of more lasting even if still temporary in the long term sense.

Not sure Putin is at the point where he would accept any "cease fire" without making gains beyond where he is currently. This is highly unfortunate, but the West should not be rewarding Putin in any way for his behavior.

There will soon come a point in the fighting when it is in Putin's interest to accept a cease fire & consolidate his gains.

If the West's criteria is to not reward Putin without any territorial gain, this war could drag on for years.
Are the direct & indirect costs in lives, damages & disruption worth it ? Don't discount our EU allies influence.

Ukraine is doing the fighting and dying, and they're the ones who will decide whether they want Putin to "consolidate his gains" in return for a temporary state of less dying.

And it's quite clear they won't accept Putin gaining from this aggression. They'll want the Russians to fully leave Ukraine.

And yeah, we should definitely not want this aggression rewarded with "gains". But if the Ukrainians decide to allow Putin any gains of any sort, we'll have to accept it as the go forward reality and be sure that Putin pays other prices that deter other such aggression or aggressors.

But there's no way we should leveraging our support to keep Ukraine from being able to prevail and determine their own choices.

[old salt]

The US & our allies - the ones providing the weapons & financial aid & levying sanctions - have the leverage to force a cease fire.

But they should not force such a cease fire until it is clear that it would lead to some sort of more lasting even if still temporary in the long term sense.

Not sure Putin is at the point where he would accept any "cease fire" without making gains beyond where he is currently. This is highly unfortunate, but the West should not be rewarding Putin in any way for his behavior.

There will soon come a point in the fighting when it is in Putin's interest to accept a cease fire & consolidate his gains.

If the West's criteria is to not reward Putin without any territorial gain, this war could drag on for years.
Are the direct & indirect costs in lives, damages & disruption worth it ? Don't discount our EU allies influence.

Ukraine is doing the fighting and dying, and they're the ones who will decide whether they want Putin to "consolidate his gains" in return for a temporary state of less dying.

And it's quite clear they won't accept Putin gaining from this aggression. They'll want the Russians to fully leave Ukraine.

And yeah, we should definitely not want this aggression rewarded with "gains". But if the Ukrainians decide to allow Putin any gains of any sort, we'll have to accept it as the go forward reality and be sure that Putin pays other prices that deter other such aggression or aggressors.

But there's no way we should leveraging our support to keep Ukraine from being able to prevail and determine their own choices.

The Ukrainians can't fight on indefinitely without massive, unsustainable aid from the West.
The West is not just the US. It is also the EU, who are bearing more of the brunt of the sanctions, refugee flow & economic disruption than is the US.

Our EU allies can't & won't endure a protracted war. Those EU allies are not as unified & supportive of the war as the US is. That's why, in the negotiations, the Ukrainians are proposing that only 2 NATO members (Turkey & France) provide security guarantees if they accept neutrality.

The EU is less patient with this war than the US is. This reminds them of the endless conflicts in the Balkans which still smolder.
It's reminiscent of the breakup of Yugoslavia = Serbia vs the rest of the Balkans, ...on steroids. It took US military intervention to bring a cease fire & imperfect settlement there. To many EUros, this is just the latest wearisome tribal war between Slavs who will never live together in peace.
...& don't kid yourself that such ethnic prejudices are not significant within the EUros, ...see Brexit.

[a fan]

But there's no way we should leveraging our support to keep Ukraine from being able to prevail and determine their own choices.

In the end, this is up to Ukraine. They'll decide what they will and won't accept from Putin. Our opinion doesn't---and shouldn't----matter.

[a fan]

The EU is less patient with this war than the US is. This reminds them of the endless conflicts in the Balkans which still smolder.
It's reminiscent of the breakup of Yugoslavia = Serbia vs the rest of the Balkans, ...on steroids. It took US military intervention to bring a cease fire & imperfect settlement there. To many EUros, this is just the latest wearisome tribal war between Slavs who will never live together in peace.
...& don't kid yourself that such ethnic prejudices are not significant within the EUros, ...see Brexit.

Yes, but winter is coming.

They have to have their energy sorted out by then....which means that they will want it over soon.

And Russians will simply get picked off by Ukrainian snipers etc. the longer this goes on.

Both sides have much to lose.

[MDlaxfan76]

The US & our allies - the ones providing the weapons & financial aid & levying sanctions - have the leverage to force a cease fire.

But they should not force such a cease fire until it is clear that it would lead to some sort of more lasting even if still temporary in the long term sense.

Not sure Putin is at the point where he would accept any "cease fire" without making gains beyond where he is currently. This is highly unfortunate, but the West should not be rewarding Putin in any way for his behavior.

There will soon come a point in the fighting when it is in Putin's interest to accept a cease fire & consolidate his gains.

If the West's criteria is to not reward Putin without any territorial gain, this war could drag on for years.
Are the direct & indirect costs in lives, damages & disruption worth it ? Don't discount our EU allies influence.

Ukraine is doing the fighting and dying, and they're the ones who will decide whether they want Putin to "consolidate his gains" in return for a temporary state of less dying.

And it's quite clear they won't accept Putin gaining from this aggression. They'll want the Russians to fully leave Ukraine.

And yeah, we should definitely not want this aggression rewarded with "gains". But if the Ukrainians decide to allow Putin any gains of any sort, we'll have to accept it as the go forward reality and be sure that Putin pays other prices that deter other such aggression or aggressors.

But there's no way we should leveraging our support to keep Ukraine from being able to prevail and determine their own choices.

The Ukrainians can't fight on indefinitely without massive, unsustainable aid from the West.
The West is not just the US. It is also the EU, who are bearing more of the brunt of the sanctions, refugee flow & economic disruption than is the US.

Our EU allies can't & won't endure a protracted war. Those EU allies are not as unified & supportive of the war as the US is. That's why, in the negotiations, the Ukrainians are proposing that only 2 NATO members (Turkey & France) provide security guarantees if they accept neutrality.

The EU is less patient with this war than the US is. This reminds them of the endless conflicts in the Balkans which still smolder.
It's reminiscent of the breakup of Yugoslavia = Serbia vs the rest of the Balkans, ...on steroids. It took US military intervention to bring a cease fire & imperfect settlement there. To many EUros, this is just the latest wearisome tribal war between Slavs who will never live together in peace.
...& don't kid yourself that such ethnic prejudices are not significant within the EUros, ...see Brexit.

well, I think you underestimate the Europeans and their horror over Putin's aggression. This is on European TV non-stop, Balkans weren't. The visibility on what is happening is radically different, and we know that such makes a huge difference in public perceptions.

Time will tell on that, but I think there's a heck of a lot more resolve than you do, including a major priority to shift their oil and gas dependencies away from Russia, and overall pace of going green accelerated. That's going to happen, end of war or not.

Re Balkans, that was over 9 years, with worst parts over 3 years. One could make an argument that this current war has been going on since 2014, certainly the Ukrainians see it that way, but we're less than two months into full scale hot conflict.

This ain't gonna end fast.
Unless someone takes out Putin fast. Which is darn unlikely.

Would love to have it be otherwise, but I think being clear-eyed about what Putin's aggression is going to cost the world, and why we should be willing to pay that price to repel him, is important.

And yeah, we're sending drones. And should be.