All Things Russia & Ukraine

[get it to x]

]I don't think we should go unless & until NATO (collectively) activates & deploys the standing NATO Response Force (NRF), which is currently commanded by the French, with the Franco-German Brigade as the vanguard of the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF).

Agreed! This is the EU's problem. If they can't bother to show up via NATO? We have no business there.

Tucker, that you?

Tucker C? Well, that's a new one, I'll grant you that.

This was said pages ago be me and others. If we just dropped the possibility of Ukraine in NATO, everybody could go back to their normal lives. What is this administration's motivation for ramping up tensions? Is Ukraine the new Sudetenland? Is Putin the new Hitler? Hardly. We should be looking to the Pacific, not this shiny object.

[old salt]

]I don't think we should go unless & until NATO (collectively) activates & deploys the standing NATO Response Force (NRF), which is currently commanded by the French, with the Franco-German Brigade as the vanguard of the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF).

Agreed! This is the EU's problem. If they can't bother to show up via NATO? We have no business there.

Tucker, that you?

Tucker C? Well, that's a new one, I'll grant you that.

This was said pages ago be me and others. If we just dropped the possibility of Ukraine in NATO, everybody could go back to their normal lives. What is this administration's motivation for ramping up tensions? Is Ukraine the new Sudetenland? Is Putin the new Hitler? Hardly. We should be looking to the Pacific, not this shiny object.

Sen Josh Hawley asked the Biden admin the same thing & requested that Biden state his position on future NATO membership for Ukraine.
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents ... wleyletter

Rather than provide an answer to that reasonable question, which the American people are entitled to know, Biden's flack accused him of parroting Russian talking points.
https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/ ... 6159618056

Get used to it. Anyone who questions our full support for Ukraine will be accused of being a useful idiot or agent for Russia.
Same playbook as the 2016 election.

[a fan]

]I don't think we should go unless & until NATO (collectively) activates & deploys the standing NATO Response Force (NRF), which is currently commanded by the French, with the Franco-German Brigade as the vanguard of the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF).

Agreed! This is the EU's problem. If they can't bother to show up via NATO? We have no business there.

Tucker, that you?

Tucker C? Well, that's a new one, I'll grant you that.

This was said pages ago be me and others. If we just dropped the possibility of Ukraine in NATO, everybody could go back to their normal lives. What is this administration's motivation for ramping up tensions? Is Ukraine the new Sudetenland? Is Putin the new Hitler? Hardly. We should be looking to the Pacific, not this shiny object.

Sen Josh Hawley asked the Biden admin the same thing & requested that Biden state his position on future NATO membership for Ukraine.
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents ... wleyletter

Rather than provide an answer to that reasonable question, which the American people are entitled to know, Biden's flack accused him of parroting Russian talking points.
https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/ ... 6159618056

Get used to it. Anyone who questions our full support for Ukraine will be accused of being a useful idiot or agent for Russia.
Same playbook as the 2016 election.

You're either with us or against us. Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.

[old salt]

]I don't think we should go unless & until NATO (collectively) activates & deploys the standing NATO Response Force (NRF), which is currently commanded by the French, with the Franco-German Brigade as the vanguard of the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF).

Agreed! This is the EU's problem. If they can't bother to show up via NATO? We have no business there.

Tucker, that you?

Tucker C? Well, that's a new one, I'll grant you that.

This was said pages ago be me and others. If we just dropped the possibility of Ukraine in NATO, everybody could go back to their normal lives. What is this administration's motivation for ramping up tensions? Is Ukraine the new Sudetenland? Is Putin the new Hitler? Hardly. We should be looking to the Pacific, not this shiny object.

Sen Josh Hawley asked the Biden admin the same thing & requested that Biden state his position on future NATO membership for Ukraine.
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents ... wleyletter

Rather than provide an answer to that reasonable question, which the American people are entitled to know, Biden's flack accused him of parroting Russian talking points.
https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/ ... 6159618056

Get used to it. Anyone who questions our full support for Ukraine will be accused of being a useful idiot or agent for Russia.
Same playbook as the 2016 election.

You're either with us or against us. Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.

The Biden Admin does not want to inform the American people what NATO membership for Ukraine obligates the US to do.

Also -- these latest augmented deployments to Poland & Romania are apparently being made bi-laterally.
As far as I can tell, NATO did not order or call for this.
Our SecDef called his counterparts in Romania & Poland 8 days ago, made the offer, & they said -- ok.

NATO has yet to act collectively. The SecGen has said that the NATO Response Force will not deploy unless/until Russia invades.

The Biden Admin flacks are hyping this as a show of NATO solidarity. It's the opposite, it is (so far) a failure of NATO to act collectively.

These latest bi-lateral deployments of US forces may prove to be a positive factor in a peaceful resolution, but it is false advertising to deceive the US public into believing that they are being done to fulfill our obligation to NATO. The US may be leading, but NATO is not (yet) following.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wh ... 022-01-27/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kr ... 022-02-02/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us ... 022-02-03/

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022 ... up/361487/

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022 ... es/361530/

[youthathletics]

Interesting back and forth with DoS and AP Reporter demanding content evidence, other than a press secretary word:

[old salt]

Interesting back and forth with DoS and AP Reporter demanding content evidence, other than a press secretary word:

That is a whole lot of spin & smoke being laid down. All he needed to say is -- " We have intel that there may be a false flag operation in the works which could include things like... we can't say more without compromising sources & methods. This is a common Russian tactic. Be forewarned & prepared for it." He is overselling.

John Kirby is much more credible than the DoS guy. He chooses his words very carefully & uses them with precision.
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcript ... -briefing/

https://www.npr.org/2022/02/04/10782419 ... sia-crisis

Latest Atlantic Resolve rotational forces

Helpful terrain maps behind WP paywall ==> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in ... 51803059cf

[a fan]

Biden promises Nordstream shutdown if Putin invades. As I’ve said for years now, that pipeline has two ends to it. Both can be closed.

Now what, Putin?

[old salt]

Biden promises Nordstream shutdown if Putin invades. As I’ve said for years now, that pipeline has two ends to it. Both can be closed.

Now what, Putin?

It's not Biden's promise to make. It's Germany's decision.
Biden is blowing smoke. Scholz is still waffling.

The longer this drags on, the more sunken costs Putin incurs, the more he will need to get in return.
This is a massive buildup, moving forces from all across Russia. Much more than a logistics exercise.

From behind the NR paywall :

Putin Has Methodically Planned to Invade Ukraine and Deflect Western Retaliation
By ANDREW C. MCCARTHY, February 7, 2022 3:18 PM

Russia has a second-tier economy at best. It is ranked eleventh in the world by GDP, just ahead of Brazil but trailing South Korea, Canada, and Italy, to say nothing of the U.S., China, and the other top dogs.

As I’ve detailed before (and I’m far from alone in this regard), today’s Russia is a pale imitation of the Soviet Union — still a formidable military power but riven by internal dysfunction, corruption, and strife. And, indeed, after an exuberant start following the U.S.S.R.’s 1991 collapse, the Russian Federation in 1991 passed through its “gangster capitalism” phase and became a basket case, defaulting in 1998. After a restructuring and a decent recovery built on its rich energy resources, Russia slipped into crisis again when the bottom fell out of oil prices in 2008. It has stagnated ever since.

So can Moscow really afford what is now an apparently inevitable invasion of Ukraine? Yes . . . because its cunningly ruthless strongman, Vladimir Putin, has been preparing for a long time.

Putin has amassed a good-size war chest. Moreover, as our Andrew Stuttaford recently detailed at Capital Matters, he has been reshaping Russia’s financial system in order to deflect American and Western retaliatory measures, which he coldly calculated were going to be economic, not military.

Forbes reports that Russia’s central-bank reserves have risen to a record high $640 billion, the equivalent of 17 months of export revenues. If the Biden administration actually wanted to do something about this, it would stop stifling U.S. energy production. But, as you may notice when it’s time to fill up your gas tank, Biden is in the thrall of climate alarmists. Putin is among the global actors cashing in most on surging prices.

Russia is responsible for 10 percent of global oil trade, each day exporting 5 million barrels of crude oil and another 2.5 million barrels of refined petroleum products. As of the end of last week, Brent crude continued its sharp rise, to $92.27. This means Russia’s daily petro-revenues are even higher than they were a few days earlier, when the Forbes noted that it was raking in more than $600 million per day with Brent then at an eight-year high of $88.88.

Beyond that, Russia is the world’s leading exporter of natural gas (close to 10 percent of which transits through Ukraine). Each day, through that trade of approximately 23 billion cubic feet, Moscow pockets $400 million. Moreover, as Andrew explained, Russia’s gas-export monopoly, Gazprom, has helped keep prices artificially high, particularly in Europe. Again, that is happening while the Biden administration makes U.S. energy production increasingly difficult, putting more upward pressure on prices in its mulish determination to appease the far Left.

How is Moscow planning to protect this $1 billion-per-day haul when the West tries to retaliate against its aggression in Ukraine?
Well, to state the obvious, it is banking on European dependence leading to European fecklessness. Europe imports over 40 percent of its gas and 25 percent of its crude oil from Russia. Without viable alternative markets, the Europeans will be hard pressed to do more than tongue-lash over Russia’s coming Ukrainian incursion — Putin having taken the EU’s measure through Gazprom’s aforementioned machinations.

As for likely U.S. retaliatory steps, Russia has been thinking ahead. As Forbes explains, “It is no longer apt to refer to Russia’s fossil fuel income as ‘petro-dollars,’ as Putin has been working hard to ‘de-dollarize’ the Russian economy.” In less than a decade, Russia has reduced the percentage of its dollar-denominated receipts from 95 percent to just 10 percent.

The Biden administration’s threat of fierce economic sanctions is based on the American capacity to cut Russia off from the international payment processing system known as SWIFT (the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications). But Putin began softening that eventual blow seven years ago. That’s when the Obama/Biden administration imposed sanctions over Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and border war in eastern Ukraine (where Russia has now marshalled tens of thousands of troops). Russia countered by launching its “Mir” payment platform (which Forbes acidly observes is “now even connected to Apple Pay”). Being precluded from SWIFT will still hurt some, but not as much as it would have in years gone by.

The Forbes report further elaborates that “Putin has increasingly replaced trade dollars with gold” and “has piled up a mountain of it.” That mountain is now worth about $130 billion, up from just $2 billion in 1995. That’s 20 percent of global reserves, trailing only the U.S., Germany, and Italy.

Though the last five years has produced global economic turbulence, the Forbes report explains that Russia has done a good job managing its currency — the ruble has mainly held steady against the dollar (though its value dropped a bit during the recent military build-up on Ukraine’s border). In addition, though growth has been stagnant, Putin has prioritized stability. Russia is one of the least-indebted major countries in the world. Its GDP is low (about $1.5 trillion in 2020, which may have risen to $1.7 trillion last year — still way down from its 2013 peak of $2.3 trillion). Yet, Russia’s public-debt-to-GDP ratio is just 18 percent, and the debt it owes to foreign sources is less than 30 percent of GDP — again, minimizing its exposure to retaliatory measures.

And then there is China. As its tensions with the U.S. and the West have intensified, Moscow has drawn closer to Beijing, to the point — the Wall Street Journal reports — that China is now Russia’s largest trading partner, with commerce between them hitting a record $147 billion in 2021.

Putin and Xi Jinping have made a show of deepening ties during the ongoing Olympics. It was sadly hilarious Friday to hear Daniel Kritenbrink, the Biden State Department’s top Asia-Pacific official, sputtering about how China will be “embarrassed” if it is seen as “willing to tolerate or tacitly support Russia’s efforts to coerce Ukraine.” To the contrary, Xi quite consciously chose the very moment of Russia’s troop escalation to issue jointly with Putin last week the most pointedly anti-American joint statement the two countries have made in 70 years. Drawing out Biden on Russia’s menacing of Ukraine is useful to China as it weighs making its own move on Taiwan.

In their joint statement, critically, China expressed support for Russia’s opposition to NATO expansion, while Russia backed China’s antagonism toward AUKUS — the defense pact Biden has struck with Australia and the United Kingdom. In conjunction with the joint statement, the Journal report relates, the two countries announced significant new oil and gas deals valued at an estimated $117.5 billion. China and Russia have recently held joint military exercises. They now pledge to add cooperation in Arctic-sea passages for shipping and international technology standards to already existing joint ventures in aviation and nuclear energy.

President Biden’s stammering performance at his January 19 press conference illustrated that the U.S. and its allies continue to grope for a meaningful, unified response that would punish Russia for a coming incursion that could swallow Ukraine whole. Putin, by contrast, has spent years planning for this moment.

[youthathletics]

I would not count on germany doing a damned thing.

[MDlaxfan76]

Biden promises Nordstream shutdown if Putin invades. As I’ve said for years now, that pipeline has two ends to it. Both can be closed.

Now what, Putin?

It's not Biden's promise to make. It's Germany's decision.
Biden is blowing smoke. Scholz is still waffling.

The longer this drags on, the more sunken costs Putin incurs, the more he will need to get in return.
This is a massive buildup, moving forces from all across Russia. Much more than a logistics exercise.

From behind the NR paywall :

Putin Has Methodically Planned to Invade Ukraine and Deflect Western Retaliation
By ANDREW C. MCCARTHY, February 7, 2022 3:18 PM

Russia has a second-tier economy at best. It is ranked eleventh in the world by GDP, just ahead of Brazil but trailing South Korea, Canada, and Italy, to say nothing of the U.S., China, and the other top dogs.

As I’ve detailed before (and I’m far from alone in this regard), today’s Russia is a pale imitation of the Soviet Union — still a formidable military power but riven by internal dysfunction, corruption, and strife. And, indeed, after an exuberant start following the U.S.S.R.’s 1991 collapse, the Russian Federation in 1991 passed through its “gangster capitalism” phase and became a basket case, defaulting in 1998. After a restructuring and a decent recovery built on its rich energy resources, Russia slipped into crisis again when the bottom fell out of oil prices in 2008. It has stagnated ever since.

So can Moscow really afford what is now an apparently inevitable invasion of Ukraine? Yes . . . because its cunningly ruthless strongman, Vladimir Putin, has been preparing for a long time.

Putin has amassed a good-size war chest. Moreover, as our Andrew Stuttaford recently detailed at Capital Matters, he has been reshaping Russia’s financial system in order to deflect American and Western retaliatory measures, which he coldly calculated were going to be economic, not military.

Forbes reports that Russia’s central-bank reserves have risen to a record high $640 billion, the equivalent of 17 months of export revenues. If the Biden administration actually wanted to do something about this, it would stop stifling U.S. energy production. But, as you may notice when it’s time to fill up your gas tank, Biden is in the thrall of climate alarmists. Putin is among the global actors cashing in most on surging prices.

Russia is responsible for 10 percent of global oil trade, each day exporting 5 million barrels of crude oil and another 2.5 million barrels of refined petroleum products. As of the end of last week, Brent crude continued its sharp rise, to $92.27. This means Russia’s daily petro-revenues are even higher than they were a few days earlier, when the Forbes noted that it was raking in more than $600 million per day with Brent then at an eight-year high of $88.88.

Beyond that, Russia is the world’s leading exporter of natural gas (close to 10 percent of which transits through Ukraine). Each day, through that trade of approximately 23 billion cubic feet, Moscow pockets $400 million. Moreover, as Andrew explained, Russia’s gas-export monopoly, Gazprom, has helped keep prices artificially high, particularly in Europe. Again, that is happening while the Biden administration makes U.S. energy production increasingly difficult, putting more upward pressure on prices in its mulish determination to appease the far Left.

How is Moscow planning to protect this $1 billion-per-day haul when the West tries to retaliate against its aggression in Ukraine?
Well, to state the obvious, it is banking on European dependence leading to European fecklessness. Europe imports over 40 percent of its gas and 25 percent of its crude oil from Russia. Without viable alternative markets, the Europeans will be hard pressed to do more than tongue-lash over Russia’s coming Ukrainian incursion — Putin having taken the EU’s measure through Gazprom’s aforementioned machinations.

As for likely U.S. retaliatory steps, Russia has been thinking ahead. As Forbes explains, “It is no longer apt to refer to Russia’s fossil fuel income as ‘petro-dollars,’ as Putin has been working hard to ‘de-dollarize’ the Russian economy.” In less than a decade, Russia has reduced the percentage of its dollar-denominated receipts from 95 percent to just 10 percent.

The Biden administration’s threat of fierce economic sanctions is based on the American capacity to cut Russia off from the international payment processing system known as SWIFT (the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications). But Putin began softening that eventual blow seven years ago. That’s when the Obama/Biden administration imposed sanctions over Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and border war in eastern Ukraine (where Russia has now marshalled tens of thousands of troops). Russia countered by launching its “Mir” payment platform (which Forbes acidly observes is “now even connected to Apple Pay”). Being precluded from SWIFT will still hurt some, but not as much as it would have in years gone by.

The Forbes report further elaborates that “Putin has increasingly replaced trade dollars with gold” and “has piled up a mountain of it.” That mountain is now worth about $130 billion, up from just $2 billion in 1995. That’s 20 percent of global reserves, trailing only the U.S., Germany, and Italy.

Though the last five years has produced global economic turbulence, the Forbes report explains that Russia has done a good job managing its currency — the ruble has mainly held steady against the dollar (though its value dropped a bit during the recent military build-up on Ukraine’s border). In addition, though growth has been stagnant, Putin has prioritized stability. Russia is one of the least-indebted major countries in the world. Its GDP is low (about $1.5 trillion in 2020, which may have risen to $1.7 trillion last year — still way down from its 2013 peak of $2.3 trillion). Yet, Russia’s public-debt-to-GDP ratio is just 18 percent, and the debt it owes to foreign sources is less than 30 percent of GDP — again, minimizing its exposure to retaliatory measures.

And then there is China. As its tensions with the U.S. and the West have intensified, Moscow has drawn closer to Beijing, to the point — the Wall Street Journal reports — that China is now Russia’s largest trading partner, with commerce between them hitting a record $147 billion in 2021.

Putin and Xi Jinping have made a show of deepening ties during the ongoing Olympics. It was sadly hilarious Friday to hear Daniel Kritenbrink, the Biden State Department’s top Asia-Pacific official, sputtering about how China will be “embarrassed” if it is seen as “willing to tolerate or tacitly support Russia’s efforts to coerce Ukraine.” To the contrary, Xi quite consciously chose the very moment of Russia’s troop escalation to issue jointly with Putin last week the most pointedly anti-American joint statement the two countries have made in 70 years. Drawing out Biden on Russia’s menacing of Ukraine is useful to China as it weighs making its own move on Taiwan.

In their joint statement, critically, China expressed support for Russia’s opposition to NATO expansion, while Russia backed China’s antagonism toward AUKUS — the defense pact Biden has struck with Australia and the United Kingdom. In conjunction with the joint statement, the Journal report relates, the two countries announced significant new oil and gas deals valued at an estimated $117.5 billion. China and Russia have recently held joint military exercises. They now pledge to add cooperation in Arctic-sea passages for shipping and international technology standards to already existing joint ventures in aviation and nuclear energy.

President Biden’s stammering performance at his January 19 press conference illustrated that the U.S. and its allies continue to grope for a meaningful, unified response that would punish Russia for a coming incursion that could swallow Ukraine whole. Putin, by contrast, has spent years planning for this moment.

Actually, my understanding is that our economic sanctions will include any bank, indeed any company of any kind doing business through Nordstream. Those that wish to do any business in dollar denominated sums, through the international banking system will need to make decisions. The banks in particular will be responsive to multi-billion dollar fines. Want to participate in the international banking system? Gotta follow the rules the US sets. That's just the way it is.

Same as what the Obama Admin did with banks doing business with Iran. Huge fines. And sure enough, they hired more auditors, put in systems, and cut off the flow.

My understanding is that they're confident that they will bring Nordstream to a halt. Clearly that's not going to make Germany happy, and domestically they need to grumble, but it's going to happen if Russia goes in hard.

[old salt]

Watching presser after 6+ hr meeting between Putin & Macron.

Putin offered political amnesty for Poroshenko.

Macron said Putin agreed that this can be the basis for security guarantees that will enable us to build a new security order, a new order of stability in Europe.

Macron headed back to Kyiv to drag Zelensky back to the Minsk-Normandy table.

[youthathletics]

I wonder how the era of Crypto impacts financial sanctions, if at all.

[Typical Lax Dad]

I wonder how the era of Crypto impacts financial sanctions, if at all.

[a fan]

Biden promises Nordstream shutdown if Putin invades. As I’ve said for years now, that pipeline has two ends to it. Both can be closed.

Now what, Putin?

It's not Biden's promise to make. It's Germany's decision.
Biden is blowing smoke. Scholz is still waffling.

Biden is supposed to bluff, and make Putin think. Or at least that's what you told me last week.

The longer this drags on, the more sunken costs Putin incurs, the more he will need to get in return.

Yes. Except you and McCarthy don't seem to get that it doesn't "end" with Putin invading Ukraine.

That's when problems "start" for Putin.

Tell me: say he invades. Now what? What's Putin's plan for managing the sh*ttiest economy in the entire region? Wages suck. GDP sucks...it's lower than it was 10 years ago, FFS. Debt is high.

What's the plan? Fellas, there could be zero sanctions from anyone, and Putin will STILL have hundreds of headaches to deal with. That cash and gold McCarthy is bragging about? He's forgetting that he needs that money to manage Ukraine AND Russia.

Good luck with that.

[old salt]

Biden promises Nordstream shutdown if Putin invades. As I’ve said for years now, that pipeline has two ends to it. Both can be closed.

Now what, Putin?

It's not Biden's promise to make. It's Germany's decision.
Biden is blowing smoke. Scholz is still waffling.

Biden is supposed to bluff, and make Putin think. Or at least that's what you told me last week.

The longer this drags on, the more sunken costs Putin incurs, the more he will need to get in return.

Yes. Except you and McCarthy don't seem to get that it doesn't "end" with Putin invading Ukraine.

That's when problems "start" for Putin.

Tell me: say he invades. Now what? What's Putin's plan for managing the sh*ttiest economy in the entire region? Wages suck. GDP sucks...it's lower than it was 10 years ago, FFS. Debt is high.

What's the plan? Fellas, there could be zero sanctions from anyone, and Putin will STILL have hundreds of headaches to deal with. That cash and gold McCarthy is bragging about? He's forgetting that he needs that money to manage Ukraine AND Russia.

Good luck with that.

That's not what I said & you know it. I said Biden should maintain strategic ambiguity & neither rule out, nor threaten, the use of US military forces. Ambiguity is not a bluff. It is leaving your options open. Let NATO & the EU take the lead. If Macron wants to take the lead, let him. Let him make a deal that the EU can live with. Let him sell out Zelensky to avoid a bloodbath & a crisis which could end NATO.

Biden is playing blind man's buff. He leaves himself no way to back down. He is putting the Germans on the spot. Making threats he can't deliver on. Now, according to Biden, if Russia makes even a limited military incursion into Ukraine -- " there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2".
Just how does Biden propose to make good on that threat ?
If that happens, for Germany, it could come down to choose NATO or choose Nordstream. They can't have both.
That would end NATO as an effective alliance -- Putin's goal.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/07/biden-s ... aine-.html
Biden said Monday that Nord Stream 2 would be scrapped if Russia launches a military invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow’s troop movements strongly suggest is imminent. But Scholz refused to say the same.

“If Russia invades -- that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine, again, then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2,” Biden said at a joint press conference with Scholz. “We will bring an end to it.”

“But how will you do that exactly, since the project and control of the project is within Germany’s control?” asked Andrea Shalal of Reuters, who had posed the original question to Biden about Nord Stream.

“We will, I promise you, we’ll be able to do it,” Biden replied.

When the same question was put to Scholz, however, the German leader gave a very different answer.

“Will you commit today to turning off and pulling the plug on Nord Stream 2?” asked Shalal.

But Scholz would not. “As I already said, we are acting together. We are absolutely united and we will not be taking different steps,” he replied, ignoring Shalal’s question.

McCarthy & I get it. You've been telling us for years that Russia is a second rate power & Putin's days are numbered. How has that worked out ?
What have 14 years of sanctions accomplished ? Biden is hot for another Cold War, to show what a tough guy he is after his Afghan debacle & to distract from his collapsing polls at home. That's why he's unilaterally sending the 82nd Airborne & a Stryker cavalry brigade to the eastern front before NATO even activates the standing NATO Response Force. How is this Russian deployment of forces a threat to NATO ? Their units in Belarus are on the southernborder with Ukraine, not the NW border with Poland & the Baltic states. If our EU allies are fearful of anything, it's that the US cowboys will drag them into another Cold War.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Biden promises Nordstream shutdown if Putin invades. As I’ve said for years now, that pipeline has two ends to it. Both can be closed.

Now what, Putin?

It's not Biden's promise to make. It's Germany's decision.
Biden is blowing smoke. Scholz is still waffling.

Biden is supposed to bluff, and make Putin think. Or at least that's what you told me last week.

The longer this drags on, the more sunken costs Putin incurs, the more he will need to get in return.

Yes. Except you and McCarthy don't seem to get that it doesn't "end" with Putin invading Ukraine.

That's when problems "start" for Putin.

Tell me: say he invades. Now what? What's Putin's plan for managing the sh*ttiest economy in the entire region? Wages suck. GDP sucks...it's lower than it was 10 years ago, FFS. Debt is high.

What's the plan? Fellas, there could be zero sanctions from anyone, and Putin will STILL have hundreds of headaches to deal with. That cash and gold McCarthy is bragging about? He's forgetting that he needs that money to manage Ukraine AND Russia.

Good luck with that.

That's not what I said & you know it. I said Biden should maintain strategic ambiguity & neither rule out, nor threaten, the use of US military forces. Ambiguity is not a bluff. It is leaving your options open. Let NATO & the EU take the lead. If Macron wants to take the lead, let him. Let him make a deal that the EU can live with. Let him sell out Zelensky to avoid a bloodbath & a crisis which could end NATO.

Biden is playing blind man's buff. He leaves himself no way to back down. He is putting the Germans on the spot. Making threats he can't deliver on. Now, according to Biden, if Russia makes even a limited military incursion into Ukraine -- " there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2".
Just how does Biden propose to make good on that threat ?
If that happens, for Germany, it could come down to choose NATO or choose Nordstream. They can't have both.
That would end NATO as an effective alliance -- Putin's goal.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/07/biden-s ... aine-.html
Biden said Monday that Nord Stream 2 would be scrapped if Russia launches a military invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow’s troop movements strongly suggest is imminent. But Scholz refused to say the same.

“If Russia invades -- that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine, again, then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2,” Biden said at a joint press conference with Scholz. “We will bring an end to it.”

“But how will you do that exactly, since the project and control of the project is within Germany’s control?” asked Andrea Shalal of Reuters, who had posed the original question to Biden about Nord Stream.

“We will, I promise you, we’ll be able to do it,” Biden replied.

When the same question was put to Scholz, however, the German leader gave a very different answer.

“Will you commit today to turning off and pulling the plug on Nord Stream 2?” asked Shalal.

But Scholz would not. “As I already said, we are acting together. We are absolutely united and we will not be taking different steps,” he replied, ignoring Shalal’s question.

McCarthy & I get it. You've been telling us for years that Russia is a second rate power & Putin's days are numbered. How has that worked out ?
What have 14 years of sanctions accomplished ? Biden is hot for another Cold War, to show what a tough guy he is after his Afghan debacle & to distract from his collapsing polls at home. That's why he's unilaterally sending the 82nd Airborne & a Stryker cavalry brigade to the eastern front before NATO even activates the standing NATO Response Force. How is this Russian deployment of forces a threat to NATO ? Their units in Belarus are on the southernborder with Ukraine, not the NW border with Poland & the Baltic states. If our EU allies are fearful of anything, it's that the US cowboys will drag them into another Cold War.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a ... fghanistan

“Russia” don’t matter anymore….no point in standing up to them…

[a fan]

McCarthy & I get it. You've been telling us for years that Russia is a second rate power & Putin's days are numbered. How has that worked out ?

I've been fantastically correct, thank you for asking. I never said his days are numbered....i just said he's a third rate power with a GDP that's a joke, and his military games are stupid and pointless.

What was Russia's GDP 10 years ago, Old Salt? And what is it now? Do you even know that it's fallen off a cliff?

Oh yeah, he's REALLY playing chess out there, this Putin guy.

Biden is hot for another Cold War, to show what a tough guy he is after his Afghan debacle & to distract from his collapsing polls at home.

That's not it. That's partisan blather.

Biden is a 70 year old American who is playing "US Foreign Policy since WWII", just as I told you he would. It's really that simple.

If our EU allies are fearful of anything, it's that the US cowboys will drag them into another Cold War.

Yep. Told you. Trump would have done the same thing. Bush, too. Hillary? 1000% would have done it.

Obama may have been wise enough to do nothing, sit back , and watch Putin deal with sanctions, and a POS Ukraine economy, drowning him in problems. Great way to live out your golden years.

[old salt]

Obama may have been wise enough to do nothing, sit back , and watch Putin deal with sanctions, and a POS Ukraine economy, drowning him in problems. Great way to live out your golden years.

What ? How did a POS Ukrainian economy drown Putin in problems ?

It was wise for Obama to do nothing, but Trump needed to be impeached because he delayed giving Ukraine more anti-tank missiles for a month.

Biden still has a lot of friends in Ukraine to take care of. One of them, Poroshenko, is awaiting a trial for treason.
https://nypost.com/2020/09/16/biden-hit ... oroshenko/

[a fan]

Obama may have been wise enough to do nothing, sit back , and watch Putin deal with sanctions, and a POS Ukraine economy, drowning him in problems. Great way to live out your golden years.

What ? How did a POS Ukrainian economy drown Putin in problems ?

It hasn't. He hasn't invaded yet. If he does? Now he's in charge of two economies that suck, not one.

It was wise for Obama to do nothing,

That's what I said at the time. You disagreed. The 80's called, it wants its foreign policy back. Remember that one?

but Trump needed to be impeached because he delayed giving Ukraine more anti-tank missiles for a month.

No. He needed to be impeached for doing the same things that got Nixon impeached.

[old salt]

Obama may have been wise enough to do nothing, sit back , and watch Putin deal with sanctions, and a POS Ukraine economy, drowning him in problems. Great way to live out your golden years.

What ? How did a POS Ukrainian economy drown Putin in problems ?

It hasn't. He hasn't invaded yet. If he does? Now he's in charge of two economies that suck, not one.

It was wise for Obama to do nothing,

That's what I said at the time. You disagreed. The 80's called, it wants its foreign policy back. Remember that one?

What ? Think back & remember -- I was accused of being a Russian agent because I said THE Ukraine was a key part of the formative Russian nation-state & should never have become a separate country. I said the same about Belarus, Georgia, & the Baltic states.

The "80's called" line was Obama mocking Romney for saying that Russia still constituted our primary military threat.

If you want to understand how Putin thinks, read this :
https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals ... onorov.pdf