All Things Russia & Ukraine

[old salt]

Walter Russell Mead on how Putin is reassembling the USSR for Cold War part deux.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-is-r ... atedinline

Putin Is Running Rings Around the West

While U.S. and European leaders natter about soft power, Russia’s president is making power moves.

Nobody knows whether Vladimir Putin will invade Ukraine, but it is increasingly clear that a divided and confused Western alliance doesn’t know how to deal with the challenge he poses.

Lost in a narcissistic fog of grandiose pomposity, Western diplomats spent the past decade dismissing the Russian president as the knuckle-dragging relic of a discarded past. As then-Secretary of State John Kerry sniffed during Mr. Putin’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine, “You just don’t in the 21st century behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on a completely trumped up pretext.”

Neville Chamberlain learned more from failure at Munich than the current generation of Western leaders learned from failure in Crimea. Convinced that the old rules of power politics don’t apply in our enlightened posthistorical century, Europeans nattered on about soft power only to find themselves locked out of key U.S.-Russia talks over Ukraine. As China and Russia grew more powerful and assertive, Americans enthusiastically embraced the politics of mean-spirited polarization and domestic culture wars. Now the Biden administration is simultaneously proclaiming overseas that America is back, in all its order-building awesomeness, and maintaining at home that democracy is one voting-rights bill away from collapse.

Pathetic throwback that he is, Mr. Putin used his time differently, rebuilding the Soviet Union under the nose of a feckless and distracted West. Because Russia hasn’t annexed breakaway republics, many observers underestimate how successful Mr. Putin’s reassembly of the U.S.S.R. has been. But it is hegemony, not uniformity, that he wants. Stalin insisted on enrolling Ukraine and Belarus as founding members of the United Nations while they were part of the Soviet Union; Mr. Putin might be happy to keep them nominally independent under Russian control. In many Soviet republics, Moscow ruled through local strongmen. When the Soviet Union collapsed, leaders like Azerbaijan’s Ayaz Mutalibov, Turkmenistan’s Saparmurat Niyazov and Kazakhstan’s Nursultan Nazarbayev made a seamless transition to running the republics as personal fiefs. Mr. Putin’s goal is to re-establish ultimate control while leaving subordinate rulers in place.

It’s working. In 2020 he reasserted Russian control over the South Caucasus by ending the Azerbaijani-Armenian war on his terms. Last spring as the West huffed and puffed, Mr. Putin kept Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in power. Last week Mr. Putin established himself as the supreme arbiter of Kazakhstan, providing the political and military assistance that allowed President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to crush a revolt. In most of the former Soviet Union today, Mr. Putin decides who rules and who weeps. Of the 15 constituent republics of the old Soviet Union, only five (the three Baltic states, Moldova and Ukraine) have held him at arm’s length. Georgia clings precariously to the shreds of a once-robust independence; the American withdrawal from Afghanistan leaves countries like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan more dependent on Moscow than ever.

[old salt]

...& what Mead predicts comes next (gulp...this is not encouraging).

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-hal ... 1642449547

How to Halt Putin’s Ukraine Push

The U.S. needs unity and tough diplomacy. Economic sanctions won’t be enough.

As the Ukrainian crisis deepens, there is only one option that would stop a Russian invasion—and that is the one that all the serious players in Washington say is off the table: dispatching an American and coalition force to defend Ukraine. Vladimir Putin is not ready for war with the U.S.; informing his gamble is a well-grounded conviction that America is not committed enough to Ukraine to defend it by force.

History may look back on this as a failure of nerve equal to the appeasement of the 1930s. Britain and France thought war was unthinkable until it became unavoidable. With troops off the table, the Biden administration hopes to whip up a mass of economic sanctions and political repercussions (up to arming Ukrainian insurgents) grave enough to warn Mr. Putin away from his intended prey.

“Hopes” is the operative word. In Washington, where trying to guess Mr. Putin’s intentions has become a bigger indoor sport than Wordle, even administration insiders doubt this approach will work. A worst-case scenario, in which Russia seizes much of Ukraine and the West invokes sanctions that fail to reverse the invasion, seems likely.

America’s Indo-Pacific allies in particular are watching with horror. A Russian occupation would expose the fragile underpinnings of world order and encourage China and North Korea to probe for weakness. And if America responds to Russian aggression by building up North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces and entering a prolonged confrontation with Moscow, what becomes of the U.S. focus on the Pacific?

Caught in this ugly predicament, Team Biden must improve the odds of deterring a Russian invasion and plan for the possibility—some think it’s a probability—that deterrence fails and Mr. Putin attacks. To do that, it must plan consequences that Mr. Putin will find serious, challenge his calculations about American weakness, and, without appeasement, make the peaceful option look more attractive.

When it comes to threats, Democrats and Republicans alike tend to overvalue the effect of economic sanctions and underestimate their cost. Europe depends so heavily on Russian oil and gas that sanctions are necessarily limited in their scope. Even very small, poor countries like Cuba and North Korea have been undeterred by sanctions more severe than any Russia is likely to face. Formal defense ties uniting Sweden, Finland and the U.S. with a commitment to defending the Baltic states, or the restoration of close defense relations between the U.S. and Turkey (which has sold Ukraine drones and has much to fear from a resurgent Russia), would impress Mr. Putin more.

Beyond that, President Biden must do more to restore U.S. credibility than saying “America is back.” Mr. Putin believes the American polarization he has helped promote is so bitter that our foreign policy is doomed to be erratic, changing with every presidential election, and ineffective, because our domestic disputes leave little energy or political capital for foreign affairs. As tensions with Russia mounted, Mr. Biden flew to Atlanta to make the most divisive speech of his presidency, confirming Mr. Putin’s dismissive ideas about American paralysis at the worst possible time.

To defend peace abroad, President Biden needs to make some peace at home. Resistance to Russia unites both progressive and conservative senators. A bipartisan Senate delegation arrived in Kyiv over the weekend. The administration can and should develop a Russia policy with bipartisan support and put that unity prominently on display.

Mr. Biden then needs to use all the considerable tools at his disposal to educate the American people about the new and dangerous world we inhabit. The holiday from history is over. Between China and Russia, America faces adversaries as powerful and relentless as any we faced in the Cold War. It is President Biden’s mission to get this message across.

Finally, he needs to open an effective back channel to explore a way forward. Mr. Putin isn’t wrong that Washington and Moscow need a relationship that acknowledges Russia’s new power. Quiet conversations between senior people on both sides are likely to be more effective than official exchanges.

These steps can improve the odds of a better outcome in Ukraine, and position the U.S. better should deterrence fail, but the final decision is out of our hands. American policy makers should reread their George Kennan. His 1946 Long Telegram provides an analytical framework that explains why the U.S.-Russia relationship is so volatile, why attempted resets with Mr. Putin have failed, and how best to manage an important relationship that will never be easy.

[old salt]

Germany's new foreign minister visited Kyiv today & is on to Moscow tomorrow.
She hopes to revive the Normandy format 4 party talks.
Even the stoic analysts on DW seem disappointed with Germany's underwhelming response, so far.

https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-baerbock ... a-60444329

This could lead to a messy replay of the decade long unraveling of Yugoslavia & the Balkan wars.

[Kismet]

The Brits are all in per their Defense Secretary
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/an-a ... in-ukraine

The are also sending antitank weaponry right away.

SoS Blinken in Kyiv and Berlin this week was just announced. Blinken will then meet with Lavrov in Geneva on Friday

[old salt]

DW's The Day is the best tv reporting I've found on EUro news.
It's on a PBS side channel in my cable pkg.
Just found it online :
https://www.dw.com/en/the-day/s-32613
A glimmer of hope. NATO's engaged. The Germans are finally in the loop,
& hinting that Nordstream 2 could be in jeopardy if Russia invades.

[seacoaster]

DW's The Day is the best tv reporting I've found on EUro news.
It's on a PBS side channel in my cable pkg.
Just found it online :
https://www.dw.com/en/the-day/s-32613
A glimmer of hope. NATO's engaged. The Germans are finally in the loop,
& hinting that Nordstream 2 could be in jeopardy if Russia invades.

Good report; thanks for posting it. The guest (Shapiro??) didn't seem altogether sanguine about the real prospects for Europe "paying the price" for keeping the peace or preserving Ukraine's sovereignty. I think it sounds like a "glimmer" is about right.

[PizzaSnake]

DW's The Day is the best tv reporting I've found on EUro news.
It's on a PBS side channel in my cable pkg.
Just found it online :
https://www.dw.com/en/the-day/s-32613
A glimmer of hope. NATO's engaged. The Germans are finally in the loop,
& hinting that Nordstream 2 could be in jeopardy if Russia invades.

Good report; thanks for posting it. The guest (Shapiro??) didn't seem altogether sanguine about the real prospects for Europe "paying the price" for keeping the peace or preserving Ukraine's sovereignty. I think it sounds like a "glimmer" is about right.

A glimmer in the gloaming?

[seacoaster]

DW's The Day is the best tv reporting I've found on EUro news.
It's on a PBS side channel in my cable pkg.
Just found it online :
https://www.dw.com/en/the-day/s-32613
A glimmer of hope. NATO's engaged. The Germans are finally in the loop,
& hinting that Nordstream 2 could be in jeopardy if Russia invades.

Good report; thanks for posting it. The guest (Shapiro??) didn't seem altogether sanguine about the real prospects for Europe "paying the price" for keeping the peace or preserving Ukraine's sovereignty. I think it sounds like a "glimmer" is about right.

A glimmer in the gloaming?

Maybe. This does appear to be a potential Sir Edward Grey moment (e.g., the lamps are going out...).

[old salt]

DW's The Day is the best tv reporting I've found on EUro news.
It's on a PBS side channel in my cable pkg.
Just found it online :
https://www.dw.com/en/the-day/s-32613
A glimmer of hope. NATO's engaged. The Germans are finally in the loop,
& hinting that Nordstream 2 could be in jeopardy if Russia invades.

Good report; thanks for posting it. The guest (Shapiro??) didn't seem altogether sanguine about the real prospects for Europe "paying the price" for keeping the peace or preserving Ukraine's sovereignty. I think it sounds like a "glimmer" is about right.

The guests on DW's earlier news on PBS (same host) were equally skeptical about Germany's willingness to pay the price.
Since Nordstream 2 is not yet in operation, it's encouraging to see the veiled threat by Germany not to turn it on & not decouple the issue.

[old salt]

Biden today green-lighted a "minor incursion". Zero strategic ambiguity.

No longer a question of "if", now it's "how much".

George Kennan saying "I warned you".

[PizzaSnake]

I think an invasion of Ukraine will offer a rare opportunity. We can encourage all of the eager freedom fighters amongst us to go over there and do their best. Maybe they help, maybe they don't, but we will be free of their enthusiasm.

[old salt]

Biden today green-lighted a "minor incursion". Zero strategic ambiguity.

No longer a question of "if", now it's "how much".

George Kennan saying "I warned you".

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/up ... dgeier.pdf

The dean of America’s Russia experts, George F. Kennan, had called the expansion of NATO into Central Europe “the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-Cold War era.” Kennan, the architect of America’s post-World War II strategy of containment of the Soviet Union, believed, as did most other Russia experts in the United States, that expanding NATO would damage beyond repair U.S. efforts to transform Russia from enemy to partner.

[a fan]

In 2020 he reasserted Russian control over the South Caucasus by ending the Azerbaijani-Armenian war on his terms. Last spring as the West huffed and puffed, Mr. Putin kept Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in power. Last week Mr. Putin established himself as the supreme arbiter of Kazakhstan, providing the political and military assistance that allowed President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to crush a revolt. In most of the former Soviet Union today, Mr. Putin decides who rules and who weeps. Of the 15 constituent republics of the old Soviet Union, only five (the three Baltic states, Moldova and Ukraine) have held him at arm’s length. Georgia clings precariously to the shreds of a once-robust independence; the American withdrawal from Afghanistan leaves countries like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan more dependent on Moscow than ever.[/i]

What utter nonsense. Mead want's us to go back to the duck and cover days that sent troops around the world? Yeah.....hard pass.

So Mead thinks that Putin invading and controlling economically bankrupt States is "winning".

Take Ukraine, Putin. You have my blessing. Then what? You can't extract money out of them. And you're....... how old, again? 70 years old?

Yeah. Go with G*d, Putin.

If the EU doesn't care, I sure as sh*t don't care. If the failed USSR wants to give it a go, and fail again? Please, let me hold your coat.

And....lest we forget (a fan flips to the page that shows a map of Asia) It ain't 1960 anymore, and Russia shares a border with the now powerful China. Good luck figuring out who gets what with Chinese.

What's Russia's GDP again? Yet Putin wants to invade economically pointless nations? I'll hold your beer, Putin.

You had it right the first time, OS. This ain't our problem. It's on the EU. And Biden would be wise to tell the EU that, and sit back with a bowl of popcorn.

But he won't. Because of course he won't.

[old salt]

You had it right the first time, OS. This ain't our problem. It's on the EU.

...sometimes I hate it when I'm right. This could be a bloody mess. Not a bloodless coup like Crimea.
The Ukrainians were corrupt & let their industrial base, military & arms industry waste away, but then we gave them false hope.
They should have made their peace with Russia before Putin came to power, like Belarus & the 'stans did.

[a fan]

You had it right the first time, OS. This ain't our problem. It's on the EU.

...sometimes I hate it when I'm right. This could be a bloody mess.

Sure. But that's not anyone's fault but Putin's, should he choose that path.

It's all pointless nonsense. As most wars are......

The part no one seems to get is: who the F thinks that China wants instability all along its borders? Best of luck to Putin.

[PizzaSnake]

So, which is more important to our interests, Taiwan, or Ukraine?

Sorry Ukraine, you forked up, you trusted us…

[old salt]

Macron feeling left out.

https://apnews.com/article/european-uni ... c4c72d49c1

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ma ... 022-01-19/

[old salt]

BBC says that Biden said that if Russia invades there will definitely be "new" US & NATO troops in Poland & Romania. I missed that.

Brits are sending anti-tank missiles with training team. No word on Stingers or other man-pad short range surface to air missiles.

Alex Vindman scared the bejesus out of Morning Mika, predicting all out war designed to hammer Ukraine's military & break the country's morale.
He'll come out looking like a far sighted genius or an alarmist (or lobbyist for his Ukrainian friends). He's saying we should give more weapons to Ukraine now & move more US forces into Poland & Romania immediately, before Russia invades.

Other than man-pads like Stingers, I'm not sure what else we can give them without time for training them. It's also hard to picture what we can do to help militarily without exposing US forces to significant casualties & the chance of escalation.

It's hard to see a way out of this without a massive bloodletting unless the Ukrainians capitulate. We can't encourage them to do that. It would just embolden Putin to push for more. It would look like a 21st century Anschluss & Sudetenland. Putin is holding the civilized world hostage.

[youthathletics]

Did Biden and Putin already cut a deal? https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/di ... np1taskbar

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/al ... np1taskbar

[PizzaSnake]

Did Biden and Putin already cut a deal? https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/di ... np1taskbar

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/al ... np1taskbar

Think this will be end of the “goodwill” the US accrued as a result of WWII?