Johns Hopkins 2021

[cc2519]

We're down to 5 goalies as Gainey is no longer on the roster. Not sure if he's still planning to transfer—kind of late in the game to transfer in time for a fall semester but I suspect given the circumstances you may see a lot of guys take the fall (or an entire year) off and then resurface elsewhere in 2021.

Junior's Denver Outlaws came up a bit short in the MLL title game and he put the blame entirely on himself. The replies and retweets for this tweet give you a sense of what people think of him: https://twitter.com/JohnGrantJr24/statu ... 0069463040

PLL started this weekend. The Atlas aka Team Hopkins (Rabil, Brown, Tinney, Crawley, Durkin—though Durkin is not playing due to COVID) won their first game over the Waterdogs in thrilling fashion. Pat Foley is on the Waterdogs roster but I don't think he played. Ryan Brown's shooting release points are still completely ridiculous.

-If you're of a certain age and you remember nat from 90210 or max from saved by the bell that's the kind of figure I think jerry was for hopkins. There's very very very little of that at homewood, but he was certainly part of the charm of my experience. If you also ever saw the film the social network, you see some of pjs in a few of the scenes.

-the marlins situation this morning underscores the challenges of college this fall. I'm familiar with at least one mlb teams hotel arrangements and the mlb basically had a contract with the hotel where it would be mlb only for these 2 months. You can't get that kind of situation with student athletes. There's no bubbling of 18-22 year olds.

-have to give rabil a ton of credit. I remember him as a cleancut underclassman talking to hot older thetas on campus, he's really made a name for himself and gone out there and built something.

Re the Marlins - Yes, we have a contagious respiratory virus, it's not really possible to "stop" it and "slowing" it mainly means delaying the inevitable, which is it will spread until it is done spreading. Colleges (like everyone) will have to accept the fact that there's NO WAY it's not going to get everywhere, sports or not. Imagine the first (inevitable) outbreaks on a campus with a 10,000 students. Imagine the school decides to send everyone home. Imagine then the outcry about the colleges forcing 10,000 students to return home to seed new outbreaks. Sooner or later, we're all going to realize we just have to take our lumps with this, and do the best we can to protect the HIGHLY vulnerable along the way. Same as every previous pandemic in the history of mankind. Think about this: the USA has had around 4.4 million KNOWN cases; the CDC says that actual infections are likely 10X the number of cases, meaning there have been around 40 million Americans infected by this. The idea that we can now protect college students, athletes, professors, etc. is laughable. There is no exit from this.

[MDlaxfan76]

Other than getting to a vaccine and continued improvement in therapies.

we're playing for time

No, not everyone needs to get it.
And responses to it can be lessened.

[nyjay]

Can't believe I have to come a lax forum for coherent COVID commentary. I guess it is the JHU thread. But here we are.

[44WeWantMore]

I actually made the mistake of thinking I would learn something on the All things China Corona thread in the Politics forum. Even if off-topic here, the JHU thread is at least equal in quality and far better in tone.

And Old Hopper used to write something to the effect that everything is tangentially related to lacrosse is therefore also tangentially related to JHU lacrosse, and therefore tangentially related to JHU.

How else could he have been such a prolific poster? I hope he is OK, nursing a fine Cabernet with an old book and some Mozart.

[steel_hop]

Sooner or later, we're all going to realize we just have to take our lumps with this, and do the best we can to protect the HIGHLY vulnerable along the way. Same as every previous pandemic in the history of mankind. Think about this: the USA has had around 4.4 million KNOWN cases; the CDC says that actual infections are likely 10X the number of cases, meaning there have been around 40 million Americans infected by this. The idea that we can now protect college students, athletes, professors, etc. is laughable. There is no exit from this.

I would have thought we would be there by now. I guess not. It is staggering to see the level of attempt at control entities are taking over something that will is not really controllable barring complete lockdown. Out country has decided that isn't an option to take back in the spring. It isn't something we should do now. It is too late, regardless of the rumblings being made in the press. More cases are not translating in a corresponding higher death rate. In mid-April, the morbidity rate was about 6%, as of yesterday, it was down to 3.2%. Most experts believe that the infected rate is 10X the confirmed rate. So the morbidity rate is more in the .32 range. Still troubling but something that can be dealt with. The morbidity rate based on confirmed cases for those under 45 is 1.7 per 100,000. If there 10 times as many infections as confirmed cases, that means we are at 1.7 per 1,000,000. Which is infinitely minute number.

The last significant pandemic was the Spanish Flu, and the shutdowns were not nearly as severe or as long as it was under the current virus. You can also look at the 1968 and 1958 morbdity rates were more severe than we are currently under and there was never quarantining at all.

[FannOLax]

That low to high, top corner wing shot from Mr. Brown? Beautiful.

Have to say, though, the games felt kinda flat to me. Maybe because I don't really have a vested interest in any of the teams, maybe because they were a bit sloppy it being the first time out, maybe lack of fans in the stands. Not sure entirely. Will definitely keep watching and hope it will grow on me over time. Wil also say I'm not sure about the shortened field. Given how big and fast these guys are, the small field feels awfully crowded to me and it seems to limit the ability of offenses to run smoothly.

The players are no doubt very good, but I've just never been able to get into pro lacrosse, even when there were fans in the stands. Probably a combination of the intensity of the college game, and the tradition / ties we feel to certain schools.

[HopFan16]

When I watch the PLL I find myself just watching Hopkins alums and hoping they score goals. Not really invested in the outcomes of games. I'd rather Ryan Brown score 5 goals and his team lose than him score none but his team win. While I'm sure not everyone has the same thinking as I do, I also can't imagine I'm alone in that. To their credit Rabil and the PLL seem fairly aware of that sentiment and have worked hard to elevate the statuses of individual players as "characters" for fans to root for/against. Without geographic affiliation I don't see how else they're supposed to get viewers invested in the games. I know that they tested pretty much every possible model imaginable and decided that what they're doing now is the best way to succeed. The MLL did it another way—it was relatively successful for awhile but look where it's ended up. Has not moved the needle at all and is now struggling just to survive.

I don't think the PLL was interested in 10 years of success before floundering and dying out. They're in it for the long haul...though whether or not they can start making real money before the venture capital runs out is a lingering question. They have some big-name, deep-pocketed sponsors and affiliates but at some point those backers are going to need to see a return on investment. Publicly the PLL is saying their partners are very pleased with the league's progression already but who knows what's going on behind the scenes.

Whether it ends up working out longterm or not I agree that Rabil has done a very good thing here and has been an excellent ambassador for the school and for the sport. He's not everyone's cup of tea but I struggle to think of many people who have done as much for lacrosse as #9.

[nyjay]

This PLL tournament will be an interesting experiment. It's condensed, very well produced and not facing a lot of competition on TV. If it doesn't do well now, not sure it will ever. My guess is that the MLL folds fairly soon. Will watch again tonight and hope to see more of Mr. Brown slingin it.

[HopFan16]

Three latest freshman intros

Johnathan Pehsko: https://twitter.com/jhumenslacrosse/sta ... 4800316417
I'm really high on this kid. Big Canadian middie with box skills who can shoot from outside or in tight. I think he's going to fit into what Milliman and JGJR want to do on offense. Wouldn't be surprised if he sees the field early although if there's a season at all, given the extreme uncertainty of the offseason it could be tough for freshmen to make an impact.

Scott Smith: https://twitter.com/jhumenslacrosse/sta ... 5019638789
By now you have all heard about him. Our most promising defensive recruit in awhile, IMO. There will be no concerns about his athleticism. Can see him fitting in at either close D or LSM. With all of the holes to fill on defense I suspect he'll find a way onto the field somehow. Then again like beaten dogs I think we've all learned not to get too excited about any single incoming player so as always temper expectations.

Brett Martin: https://twitter.com/jhumenslacrosse/sta ... 7540950023
Middie out of Long Island, played for that vaunted Team 91 club team with O'Neill and co. I see him as a two-way guy—not sure if or when he'll crack the offensive midfield rotation but his end-to-end speed can definitely be an asset in transition, off the wings, maybe a little SSDM. He certainly has the size for it (6'1'', 180).

[jhu06]

for the uva/unc/umd people that saw similar coaching changes are you surprised or not at the level of turnover and what should we expect with a new coach dealing with somebody else's roster.

[jhu06]

This PLL tournament will be an interesting experiment. It's condensed, very well produced and not facing a lot of competition on TV. If it doesn't do well now, not sure it will ever. My guess is that the MLL folds fairly soon. Will watch again tonight and hope to see more of Mr. Brown slingin it.

I saw a purple sabia shirsey-I think that's big cats team- out in the wild on a young kid while at dinner last night and that was not in maryland or new york.

[MDlaxfan76]

Sooner or later, we're all going to realize we just have to take our lumps with this, and do the best we can to protect the HIGHLY vulnerable along the way. Same as every previous pandemic in the history of mankind. Think about this: the USA has had around 4.4 million KNOWN cases; the CDC says that actual infections are likely 10X the number of cases, meaning there have been around 40 million Americans infected by this. The idea that we can now protect college students, athletes, professors, etc. is laughable. There is no exit from this.

I would have thought we would be there by now. I guess not. It is staggering to see the level of attempt at control entities are taking over something that will is not really controllable barring complete lockdown. Out country has decided that isn't an option to take back in the spring. It isn't something we should do now. It is too late, regardless of the rumblings being made in the press. More cases are not translating in a corresponding higher death rate. In mid-April, the morbidity rate was about 6%, as of yesterday, it was down to 3.2%. Most experts believe that the infected rate is 10X the confirmed rate. So the morbidity rate is more in the .32 range. Still troubling but something that can be dealt with. The morbidity rate based on confirmed cases for those under 45 is 1.7 per 100,000. If there 10 times as many infections as confirmed cases, that means we are at 1.7 per 1,000,000. Which is infinitely minute number.

The last significant pandemic was the Spanish Flu, and the shutdowns were not nearly as severe or as long as it was under the current virus. You can also look at the 1968 and 1958 morbdity rates were more severe than we are currently under and there was never quarantining at all.

The '68 flu pandemic killed 100K or less Americans (est. 34-100K) over the course of two waves. It killed 3-4 million worldwide. We're in wave 1 and 150k dead Americans already, despite the mitigation efforts.

2009 was under 13k American deaths.

The '58 flu pandemic killed 118K Americans and 1.1 million worldwide.

This bug is much worse than those. Not only in mortality, but also the asymptomatic spread. Nasty bug.

The 1918 pandemic, the worst to date, was without vaccines, without antibiotics to fight secondary infections, without the various oxygen, ventilators, etc. The US lost 675K (huge # relative to then pop) and estimated 50 million died worldwide...thank goodness, we're not in 1918 science. But yes, masks were everywhere and people were scared immensely of it.

We've learned that respiratory illnesses require responses to slow them down while the therapies and vaccines can catch up...otherwise, we would entirely over run our health system and doctors would simply stop showing up. Do we really want to go there? or do we want to slow it down and let the scientists work?

I'm thinking the latter is necessary. So do the scientists.

[Drcthru]

Sooner or later, we're all going to realize we just have to take our lumps with this, and do the best we can to protect the HIGHLY vulnerable along the way. Same as every previous pandemic in the history of mankind. Think about this: the USA has had around 4.4 million KNOWN cases; the CDC says that actual infections are likely 10X the number of cases, meaning there have been around 40 million Americans infected by this. The idea that we can now protect college students, athletes, professors, etc. is laughable. There is no exit from this.

I would have thought we would be there by now. I guess not. It is staggering to see the level of attempt at control entities are taking over something that will is not really controllable barring complete lockdown. Out country has decided that isn't an option to take back in the spring. It isn't something we should do now. It is too late, regardless of the rumblings being made in the press. More cases are not translating in a corresponding higher death rate. In mid-April, the morbidity rate was about 6%, as of yesterday, it was down to 3.2%. Most experts believe that the infected rate is 10X the confirmed rate. So the morbidity rate is more in the .32 range. Still troubling but something that can be dealt with. The morbidity rate based on confirmed cases for those under 45 is 1.7 per 100,000. If there 10 times as many infections as confirmed cases, that means we are at 1.7 per 1,000,000. Which is infinitely minute number.

The last significant pandemic was the Spanish Flu, and the shutdowns were not nearly as severe or as long as it was under the current virus. You can also look at the 1968 and 1958 morbdity rates were more severe than we are currently under and there was never quarantining at all.

The '68 flu pandemic killed 100K or less Americans (est. 34-100K) over the course of two waves. It killed 3-4 million worldwide. We're in wave 1 and 150k dead Americans already, despite the mitigation efforts.

2009 was under 13k American deaths.

The '58 flu pandemic killed 118K Americans and 1.1 million worldwide.

This bug is much worse than those. Not only in mortality, but also the asymptomatic spread. Nasty bug.

The 1918 pandemic, the worst to date, was without vaccines, without antibiotics to fight secondary infections, without the various oxygen, ventilators, etc. The US lost 675K (huge # relative to then pop) and estimated 50 million died worldwide...thank goodness, we're not in 1918 science. But yes, masks were everywhere and people were scared immensely of it.

We've learned that respiratory illnesses require responses to slow them down while the therapies and vaccines can catch up...otherwise, we would entirely over run our health system and doctors would simply stop showing up. Do we really want to go there? or do we want to slow it down and let the scientists work?

I'm thinking the latter is necessary. So do the scientists.

Thank you! I'm tired of the people with no knowledge or experience in Medicine, Epidemiology, Infectious Disease or Virology claiming that we have nothing to fear about opening schools, sports as usual and the"very low mortality" for the majority of us.

[FMUBart]

Sooner or later, we're all going to realize we just have to take our lumps with this, and do the best we can to protect the HIGHLY vulnerable along the way. Same as every previous pandemic in the history of mankind. Think about this: the USA has had around 4.4 million KNOWN cases; the CDC says that actual infections are likely 10X the number of cases, meaning there have been around 40 million Americans infected by this. The idea that we can now protect college students, athletes, professors, etc. is laughable. There is no exit from this.

I would have thought we would be there by now. I guess not. It is staggering to see the level of attempt at control entities are taking over something that will is not really controllable barring complete lockdown. Out country has decided that isn't an option to take back in the spring. It isn't something we should do now. It is too late, regardless of the rumblings being made in the press. More cases are not translating in a corresponding higher death rate. In mid-April, the morbidity rate was about 6%, as of yesterday, it was down to 3.2%. Most experts believe that the infected rate is 10X the confirmed rate. So the morbidity rate is more in the .32 range. Still troubling but something that can be dealt with. The morbidity rate based on confirmed cases for those under 45 is 1.7 per 100,000. If there 10 times as many infections as confirmed cases, that means we are at 1.7 per 1,000,000. Which is infinitely minute number.

The last significant pandemic was the Spanish Flu, and the shutdowns were not nearly as severe or as long as it was under the current virus. You can also look at the 1968 and 1958 morbdity rates were more severe than we are currently under and there was never quarantining at all.

The '68 flu pandemic killed 100K or less Americans (est. 34-100K) over the course of two waves. It killed 3-4 million worldwide. We're in wave 1 and 150k dead Americans already, despite the mitigation efforts.

2009 was under 13k American deaths.

The '58 flu pandemic killed 118K Americans and 1.1 million worldwide.

This bug is much worse than those. Not only in mortality, but also the asymptomatic spread. Nasty bug.

The 1918 pandemic, the worst to date, was without vaccines, without antibiotics to fight secondary infections, without the various oxygen, ventilators, etc. The US lost 675K (huge # relative to then pop) and estimated 50 million died worldwide...thank goodness, we're not in 1918 science. But yes, masks were everywhere and people were scared immensely of it.

We've learned that respiratory illnesses require responses to slow them down while the therapies and vaccines can catch up...otherwise, we would entirely over run our health system and doctors would simply stop showing up. Do we really want to go there? or do we want to slow it down and let the scientists work?

I'm thinking the latter is necessary. So do the scientists.

Thank you! I'm tired of the people with no knowledge or experience in Medicine, Epidemiology, Infectious Disease or Virology claiming that we have nothing to fear about opening schools, sports as usual and the"very low mortality" for the majority of us.

This virus is not lethal to 90%+ of the population...a small subset need to be protected/take extreme precautions. Others just need to be smart, but it is not deadly like other plagues--although highly contagious. Many of the asymptomatic don't even know they have it. Per my doctor: he is embarrassed by medical institutions using the pandemic to inflate their government handouts...

[FMUBart]

k

[Drcthru]

Sooner or later, we're all going to realize we just have to take our lumps with this, and do the best we can to protect the HIGHLY vulnerable along the way. Same as every previous pandemic in the history of mankind. Think about this: the USA has had around 4.4 million KNOWN cases; the CDC says that actual infections are likely 10X the number of cases, meaning there have been around 40 million Americans infected by this. The idea that we can now protect college students, athletes, professors, etc. is laughable. There is no exit from this.

I would have thought we would be there by now. I guess not. It is staggering to see the level of attempt at control entities are taking over something that will is not really controllable barring complete lockdown. Out country has decided that isn't an option to take back in the spring. It isn't something we should do now. It is too late, regardless of the rumblings being made in the press. More cases are not translating in a corresponding higher death rate. In mid-April, the morbidity rate was about 6%, as of yesterday, it was down to 3.2%. Most experts believe that the infected rate is 10X the confirmed rate. So the morbidity rate is more in the .32 range. Still troubling but something that can be dealt with. The morbidity rate based on confirmed cases for those under 45 is 1.7 per 100,000. If there 10 times as many infections as confirmed cases, that means we are at 1.7 per 1,000,000. Which is infinitely minute number.

The last significant pandemic was the Spanish Flu, and the shutdowns were not nearly as severe or as long as it was under the current virus. You can also look at the 1968 and 1958 morbdity rates were more severe than we are currently under and there was never quarantining at all.

The '68 flu pandemic killed 100K or less Americans (est. 34-100K) over the course of two waves. It killed 3-4 million worldwide. We're in wave 1 and 150k dead Americans already, despite the mitigation efforts.

2009 was under 13k American deaths.

The '58 flu pandemic killed 118K Americans and 1.1 million worldwide.

This bug is much worse than those. Not only in mortality, but also the asymptomatic spread. Nasty bug.

The 1918 pandemic, the worst to date, was without vaccines, without antibiotics to fight secondary infections, without the various oxygen, ventilators, etc. The US lost 675K (huge # relative to then pop) and estimated 50 million died worldwide...thank goodness, we're not in 1918 science. But yes, masks were everywhere and people were scared immensely of it.

We've learned that respiratory illnesses require responses to slow them down while the therapies and vaccines can catch up...otherwise, we would entirely over run our health system and doctors would simply stop showing up. Do we really want to go there? or do we want to slow it down and let the scientists work?

I'm thinking the latter is necessary. So do the scientists.

Thank you! I'm tired of the people with no knowledge or experience in Medicine, Epidemiology, Infectious Disease or Virology claiming that we have nothing to fear about opening schools, sports as usual and the"very low mortality" for the majority of us.

This virus is not lethal to 90%+ of the population...a small subset need to be protected/take extreme precautions. Others just need to be smart, but it is not deadly like other plagues--although highly contagious. Many of the asymptomatic don't even know they have it. Per my doctor: he is embarrassed by medical institutions using the pandemic to inflate their government handouts...

Only lethal to 30+ million people...no problem

[HopFan16]

It's also not just about mortality. People see that it only kills ~1% of young people who get it and think it's safe for them to resume operations as normal. First of all, that's still a lot of dead young people! Second, many of those who survive still suffer immensely, for long periods of time, in ways doctors still don't understand. It's a brand new disease. Scientists are still studying how it works and what it does to the body.

And btw it's pretty misleading to say it's "not controllable" without a complete lockdown. Plenty of other countries have gotten the virus under control without long or widespread quarantining—because their citizens don't have some kind of warped freedom complex about wearing masks. If everyone just wore masks when they were in public and stopped going to crowded indoor spaces like bars, we too could have the virus under control, like virtually every other country has already done, in a matter of weeks. That we're still dealing with this with the magnitude that we are is a uniquely American blunder.

Anyway, back to lacrosse. McManus is now #31. Update your playbooks. No word on a DOLO. Soon....my sweet, sweet DOLO. Soon.

[wgdsr]

for the uva/unc/umd people that saw similar coaching changes are you surprised or not at the level of turnover and what should we expect with a new coach dealing with somebody else's roster.

tiffany got a little leeway in his first year (actually says he was told no limits... which has never been the case prior and probably since). for them, that ultimately meant numbers in the same ballpark as usual. they ended up with maybe 4 walk ons come in and make the team (there are always walk ons on the team, but maybe 3 or 4 for the entire team), and another transfer. but either thru cuts or guys dropping with the new program, the size stayed about the same.

it was more drops (4 or 5?) than usual for a team that has low turnover, but nothing crazy. hopkins where the numbers were starting out in the 60s (vs mid 40s for uva) will be its own animal. throw in covid and 5th years and transfers and each coach does things his own way and there's no precedent that'll give you a window to predict. i suspect as peeps have surmised this year it'll be somewhere in the 50s and then a small class coming in. so not surprised.

i'd also suspect you could expect your coach will put the guys that fit what he wants or has as an ideal on the field, like every coach does. that mixed up some roles in tiffany's first year (aitken was a more of a 2 way middie, lukacovic ran for inverts out of the box for example) and the players all had to get used to playing a different system on pace and transition and turnovers. tiffany and kirwan have become more standard since that 1st year with roles, and i suspect some of running aitken and conrad into the ground in 2017 was he didn't have all the personnel that he wanted. they were actually a pretty good team for a lot of that year, imo. ran out of gas @ year end and lost more close ones than won earlier.

[FMUBart]

Sooner or later, we're all going to realize we just have to take our lumps with this, and do the best we can to protect the HIGHLY vulnerable along the way. Same as every previous pandemic in the history of mankind. Think about this: the USA has had around 4.4 million KNOWN cases; the CDC says that actual infections are likely 10X the number of cases, meaning there have been around 40 million Americans infected by this. The idea that we can now protect college students, athletes, professors, etc. is laughable. There is no exit from this.

I would have thought we would be there by now. I guess not. It is staggering to see the level of attempt at control entities are taking over something that will is not really controllable barring complete lockdown. Out country has decided that isn't an option to take back in the spring. It isn't something we should do now. It is too late, regardless of the rumblings being made in the press. More cases are not translating in a corresponding higher death rate. In mid-April, the morbidity rate was about 6%, as of yesterday, it was down to 3.2%. Most experts believe that the infected rate is 10X the confirmed rate. So the morbidity rate is more in the .32 range. Still troubling but something that can be dealt with. The morbidity rate based on confirmed cases for those under 45 is 1.7 per 100,000. If there 10 times as many infections as confirmed cases, that means we are at 1.7 per 1,000,000. Which is infinitely minute number.

The last significant pandemic was the Spanish Flu, and the shutdowns were not nearly as severe or as long as it was under the current virus. You can also look at the 1968 and 1958 morbdity rates were more severe than we are currently under and there was never quarantining at all.

The '68 flu pandemic killed 100K or less Americans (est. 34-100K) over the course of two waves. It killed 3-4 million worldwide. We're in wave 1 and 150k dead Americans already, despite the mitigation efforts.

2009 was under 13k American deaths.

The '58 flu pandemic killed 118K Americans and 1.1 million worldwide.

This bug is much worse than those. Not only in mortality, but also the asymptomatic spread. Nasty bug.

The 1918 pandemic, the worst to date, was without vaccines, without antibiotics to fight secondary infections, without the various oxygen, ventilators, etc. The US lost 675K (huge # relative to then pop) and estimated 50 million died worldwide...thank goodness, we're not in 1918 science. But yes, masks were everywhere and people were scared immensely of it.

We've learned that respiratory illnesses require responses to slow them down while the therapies and vaccines can catch up...otherwise, we would entirely over run our health system and doctors would simply stop showing up. Do we really want to go there? or do we want to slow it down and let the scientists work?

I'm thinking the latter is necessary. So do the scientists.

Thank you! I'm tired of the people with no knowledge or experience in Medicine, Epidemiology, Infectious Disease or Virology claiming that we have nothing to fear about opening schools, sports as usual and the"very low mortality" for the majority of us.

This virus is not lethal to 90%+ of the population...a small subset need to be protected/take extreme precautions. Others just need to be smart, but it is not deadly like other plagues--although highly contagious. Many of the asymptomatic don't even know they have it. Per my doctor: he is embarrassed by medical institutions using the pandemic to inflate their government handouts...

Only lethal to 30+ million people...no problem

My uncle had cancer and then died after he had a stroke--2 months ago. Death certificate said "Covid" as cause--do the math...

[flalax22]

Nice to see the program recognizing the Jays who play pro lax including two cast aways in Foley and Rapine. I wonder if they would have helped last season.