2020 Preason Top 20

[HGK25]

Post Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:47 pm

FanLax doesn’t do (a.k.a. hates) Preseason Rankings. The FanLax 2020 Preseason Rankings are the 2019 Post-Season Rankings.

1 Virginia
2 Yale
3 Penn State
4 Penn
5 Duke
6 Maryland
7 Notre Dame
8 Cornell
9 Johns Hopkins
10 Loyola
11 North Carolina
12 Towson
13 Syracuse
14 Ohio State
15 Denver
16 Army
17 High Point
18 Rutgers
19 Villanova
20 Richmond
21 Princeton
22 Georgetown
23 UMass
24 Delaware
25 Boston University
26 Bucknell
27 Navy
28 Lehigh
29 Drexel
30 Michigan
31 Air Force
32 Brown
33 Harvard
34 Holy Cross
35 Hofstra
36 Marquette
37 Colgate
38 Providence
39 Jacksonville
40 Mount St Mary’s
41 Sacred Heart
42 Robert Morris
43 Hobart
44 Cleveland State
45 Fairfield
46 Stony Brook
47 Saint Joseph’s
48 St. John’s
49 Albany
50 Vermont
51 UMBC
52 Marist
53 Utah
54 Detroit Mercy
55 Canisius
56 Monmouth
57 Siena
58 Quinnipiac
59 Bryant
60 Lafayette
61 Hartford
62 UMass Lowell
63 Furman
64 Manhattan
65 Binghamton
66 Bellarmine
67 Dartmouth
68 Mercer
69 VMI
70 St. Bonaventure
71 Wagner
72 NJIT
73 Hampton

Was this your actual year end poll? Georgetown at 22? Beat Nova (19th), lost a very tight game to Loyola (10), split with Denver (15) but beat them in Denver to win Big East and then played national runner up Yale tough in 19-16 loss in 1st round. Neither Nova or Denver in tournament yet Hoyas behind them? Other polls had Hoyas #10 to finish year. Admittedly a Hoya backer but just curious how that ranking was decided upon?

[blue angels]

Undisputed #1........Hmmmmm.

Last season, they were also the undisputed #1. Who is going to beat them?!?! etc. ...

No question they have outstanding talent but I am not sure they will be better than Maryland in Their Big 10 conference or even Penn in Their own State.

[Laxfandad]

Polls are opinions and like....everyone has one.

Ranking should incorporate Strength of Schedule (RPI) [Value 0.612] + Goal For Differential (normalized by a factor to be a similar sized value as RPI).

If you play the tougher schedule and roll the table (like Penn State last year) then you are an undisputed #1 rank.
If you play the tougher schedule but are mediocre (like Hopkins last year outside their 2 wins against Maryland late) then the negative "goal for differential" brings down your RPI and you are not ranked as high.
If you play a slightly weaker schedule but have a positive "goal for differential" then you have displayed a winning pedigree and you should have a higher ranking. The teams with these weaker schedules are not always in control of their schedules. The Big Boys control who they play, when they play and where they play.

If High Point had rolled the table last year (excluding their SoCon tourney), where should they be ranked? If they then lost the SoCon after going undefeated would they be omitted from the tourney. Could a team with a weaker schedule that goes 16-0 not be ranked #1?

This idea of a good win or a bad loss is way too subjective and honestly is a nonsensical statistic. Create a mathematical formula and let the numbers not biased parties make the decision.

Undisputed #1........Hmmmmm. Penn State had a very good, not great 2019 season but this is the definition of a Homer post. Let me guess, Jo PA is the greatest college football coach ever?

Blueangels,

Nope, not a Homer post. I ran numbers based on their 2019 RPI and they also had the highest Goal For Differential as well. Combine those two, and they were heads and tails higher than anyone else.

[blue angels]

Polls are opinions and like....everyone has one.

Ranking should incorporate Strength of Schedule (RPI) [Value 0.612] + Goal For Differential (normalized by a factor to be a similar sized value as RPI).

If you play the tougher schedule and roll the table (like Penn State last year) then you are an undisputed #1 rank.
If you play the tougher schedule but are mediocre (like Hopkins last year outside their 2 wins against Maryland late) then the negative "goal for differential" brings down your RPI and you are not ranked as high.
If you play a slightly weaker schedule but have a positive "goal for differential" then you have displayed a winning pedigree and you should have a higher ranking. The teams with these weaker schedules are not always in control of their schedules. The Big Boys control who they play, when they play and where they play.

If High Point had rolled the table last year (excluding their SoCon tourney), where should they be ranked? If they then lost the SoCon after going undefeated would they be omitted from the tourney. Could a team with a weaker schedule that goes 16-0 not be ranked #1?

This idea of a good win or a bad loss is way too subjective and honestly is a nonsensical statistic. Create a mathematical formula and let the numbers not biased parties make the decision.

Undisputed #1........Hmmmmm. Penn State had a very good, not great 2019 season but this is the definition of a Homer post. Let me guess, Jo PA is the greatest college football coach ever?

Blueangels,

Nope, not a Homer post. I ran numbers based on their 2019 RPI and they also had the highest Goal For Differential as well. Combine those two, and they were heads and tails higher than anyone else.

Of course that depends on your schedule......Tell me how many ACC teams they played, much less beat, when you start talking about toughest schedules? Wins over Maryland and Hop(despite what some say) are great wins. I don’t dispute they have the best attack and are a good team. However, We are talking about number 1 and you are the one that said undisputed....Bottom line, they have never won for all the marbles when it really counted and looking at their roster, it better be this year. I’ll believe it when I see it occur.

[Matnum PI]

Was this your actual year end poll? Georgetown at 22? Beat Nova (19th), lost a very tight game to Loyola (10), split with Denver (15) but beat them in Denver to win Big East and then played national runner up Yale tough in 19-16 loss in 1st round. Neither Nova or Denver in tournament yet Hoyas behind them? Other polls had Hoyas #10 to finish year. Admittedly a Hoya backer but just curious how that ranking was decided upon?

The rankings are based on 3 Best Wins and 3 Worst Losses: Georgetown's 3 Best Wins were Denver, Villanova, and Drexel. Their Best Win Ranking is #23. Their Worst Losses were Marquette, Denver, and Towson. Their Worst Loss Ranking is #21.

Denver's Best Ws and Worst Ls are better. Denver beat UNC, Towson, and G'town and their Worst Losses were to G'town, P'ton, and Villanova.

Villanova's Best Ws are better (Yale, Denver, and Delaware), their Worst Ls are worse (Providence, Drexel, and G'town) and, cumulatively, their Best Ws and Worst Ls are better than G'towns. The rankings don't look at scores nor do they weigh later games more than earlier. Just who had a better season. The only exception to this are National Championship Play-off games.

[stupefied]

Agree with many posts in this thread .Preseason ranks are just that . Picked Penn State in poll as one to not only reach FF again but also to win chip given that potent offense and number of returnees but there are no guarantees for any of my FF choices just better odds.

PSU defense was not championship calibre last year and that remains a vulnerability. Agree with Blue Angels that while they and UVA are the popular picks that no team is undisputed from 2019 other than UVA that won championship..

Also agree with Henpecked that this year may have most competitive top twenty ever with many capable of reaching FF despite any preseason tiering. Still believe that NCAA tourney should be expanded to account for such. Ive suggested twenty four with first rd bye for top eight.

Do not agree on no goal differentials, they have to be accounted for somehow . Understand a loss is still a loss but not all schedules and conferences are equal . Shouldn't penalize a power for playing other powers week in week out, should have better than .500 regardless which Im not sure is in place.

As far as Georgetown, also surprised they were not ranked higher in fan lax preseason . Good team in 19

[Matnum PI]

As far as Georgetown, also surprised they were not ranked higher in fan lax preseason . Good team in 19

I agree about G'town and i think this is the case because the system gives special consideration for National championship Play-off games but does not do the same for Conference Championship games. i.e. if G'town beating Denver on May 4th is just another game, then the rankings are (relatively) accurate. (Based on Ws and Ls and who those Ws and Ls were against, G'town didn't have an amazing season. Same can be said for UVA and numerous others.) But G'town did beat Denver in the Conference Finals. and, if the Conference C'ships received the same considerations as the National C'ships, then G'town would jump ahead of Denver to, in theory, #15. (I say in theory because this Conference C'ship change would effect other teams, too.) Bottomline, going forward, and maybe in hindsight, I think FanLax needs to treat Conference C'ships in the same way as National C'ships.

[Matnum PI]

The obvious "Yeah, but what about...?"s from Inside Lacrosse's Preseason Rankings are Notre Dame and Cornell.

[jersey shore lax]

Post Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:47 pm

FanLax doesn’t do (a.k.a. hates) Preseason Rankings. The FanLax 2020 Preseason Rankings are the 2019 Post-Season Rankings.

1 Virginia
2 Yale
3 Penn State
4 Penn
5 Duke
6 Maryland
7 Notre Dame
8 Cornell
9 Johns Hopkins
10 Loyola
11 North Carolina
12 Towson
13 Syracuse
14 Ohio State
15 Denver
16 Army
17 High Point
18 Rutgers
19 Villanova
20 Richmond
21 Princeton
22 Georgetown
23 UMass
24 Delaware
25 Boston University
26 Bucknell
27 Navy
28 Lehigh
29 Drexel
30 Michigan
31 Air Force
32 Brown
33 Harvard
34 Holy Cross
35 Hofstra
36 Marquette
37 Colgate
38 Providence
39 Jacksonville
40 Mount St Mary’s
41 Sacred Heart
42 Robert Morris
43 Hobart
44 Cleveland State
45 Fairfield
46 Stony Brook
47 Saint Joseph’s
48 St. John’s
49 Albany
50 Vermont
51 UMBC
52 Marist
53 Utah
54 Detroit Mercy
55 Canisius
56 Monmouth
57 Siena
58 Quinnipiac
59 Bryant
60 Lafayette
61 Hartford
62 UMass Lowell
63 Furman
64 Manhattan
65 Binghamton
66 Bellarmine
67 Dartmouth
68 Mercer
69 VMI
70 St. Bonaventure
71 Wagner
72 NJIT
73 Hampton

Was this your actual year end poll? Georgetown at 22? Beat Nova (19th), lost a very tight game to Loyola (10), split with Denver (15) but beat them in Denver to win Big East and then played national runner up Yale tough in 19-16 loss in 1st round. Neither Nova or Denver in tournament yet Hoyas behind them? Other polls had Hoyas #10 to finish year. Admittedly a Hoya backer but just curious how that ranking was decided upon?

Showing great disrespect for the Sharks (LIU) and The Warriors (Merrimack) - IMHO

[ABV 8.3%]

going to mention to Ty and his employer, in$wag, that they really should have a "best of the rest" college tournament, coinciding with a "showcase"recruiting event. Only $595, plus lodging. Includes tickets to the "best of the rest" tournament, free tshirt (made in china)

I mean look at what quality teams are in the 30's and 40's....

Yeah, jealous that you have the ability to do it. The question is, why won't you? Could do regional matchups. Friday nite college games (semi's), Saturday recruiting showcase. Have comibines, shuttle runs, etc. Sunday, college championship & 3rd place/bronze game. Recruit showcase "all star" game in between the college games. but only including the ones from "known" $$$$$ clubs, team mostly picked already. A showcase put a kid on an all star team that wasnt even at the tournament? You betcha. (it wasn't IL)

Gillette Stadium

Brown vs Bucknell

Cornell vs Army

Denver

Utah vs Rutgers
High Point vs Providence

Atlantic City-Premier Location.

Hofstra vs Holy Cross
UNC vs Michigan

or not......

[Typical Lax Dad]

going to mention to Ty and his employer, in$wag, that they really should have a "best of the rest" college tournament, coinciding with a "showcase"recruiting event. Only $595, plus lodging. Includes tickets to the "best of the rest" tournament, free tshirt (made in china)

I mean look at what quality teams are in the 30's and 40's....

Yeah, jealous that you have the ability to do it. The question is, why won't you? Could do regional matchups. Friday nite college games (semi's), Saturday recruiting showcase. Have comibines, shuttle runs, etc. Sunday, college championship & 3rd place/bronze game. Recruit showcase "all star" game in between the college games. but only including the ones from "known" $$$$$ clubs, team mostly picked already. A showcase put a kid on an all star team that wasnt even at the tournament? You betcha. (it wasn't IL)

Gillette Stadium

Brown vs Bucknell

Cornell vs Army

Denver

Utah vs Rutgers
High Point vs Providence

Atlantic City-Premier Location.

Hofstra vs Holy Cross
UNC vs Michigan

or not......

Could be like the NIT

[HGK25]

Got it. Explains why this purely formulaic poll and the others, that use more anecdotal data as well as formulaic data, have them 12 spots apart.

[QuakerSouth]

Could be like the NIT

I would think in basketball, even the NIT is a moneymaker

[Typical Lax Dad]

Could be like the NIT

I would think in basketball, even the NIT is a moneymaker

I think it’s a very good idea. I bet schools would buy into it. Like the NIT, teams can decline the invite.

[AreaLax]

So IL gives Syracuse the most preseason AA but they are only 8 in the preseason poll?

Full IL top 20: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, hm
1. UVA. 2,0,1,2
2. Penn State 1,1,4,0
3. Yale 1,1,1,1
4. Maryland 0,1,2,3
5. Penn 1,1,1,0
6. Duke. 1,0,0,1
7. Notre Dame 1,0,1,1
8. Syracuse 1,3 , 2, 1
9. Ohio State 1,0,0,1
10. Denver 0,1,0,0

[HopFan16]

So IL gives Syracuse the most preseason AA but they are only 8 in the preseason poll?

Full IL top 20: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, hm
1. UVA. 2,0,1,2
2. Penn State 1,1,4,0
3. Yale 1,1,1,1
4. Maryland 0,1,2,3
5. Penn 1,1,1,0
6. Duke. 1,0,0,1
7. Notre Dame 1,0,1,1
8. Syracuse 1,3 , 2, 1
9. Ohio State 1,0,0,1
10. Denver 0,1,0,0

I think the #8 ranking is totally justifiable. The 7 All-Americans, however...not so sure about that. Everyone at ESPN is a Syracuse alum, and they tend to talk a lot about Cuse players, which in turn impacts perceptions of those players. How on earth is Dordevic a preseason AA after not playing for a year? He only had 15 goals his freshman season—not like he was lighting up the scoreboard. Good player with potential to be great, don't get me wrong, but that one was a stretch. But that was probably because Carc cannot stop talking about the kid, so he's now a name that people know. The people voting on these preseason awards are not any more knowledgable than you or I—most of the time I'd wager they are considerably LESS knowledgable. So they go with the guys they've heard of, and people have heard of Syracuse players.

[Mr3Putt]

Looking at the haves & the have nots it’s a miracle how other teams compete ! The “inside lacrosse “ 100 freshman says a lot.
Duke - 8 players , UVA - 7 , Denver - 3 , Yale -6 ( “clearly gates open in New Haven) , ND 9 - yes 9 ! , UNC - 4 ( players looking @ that 500 record) .Hopkins w a measly - 4 ! Credit to the others for hanging in there !

[Comeonman]

I agree wholeheartedly with HopFan above on IL and their rankings and ratings. Some of the guys there are complete novices. Well put on Dordevic. Fine player, but not worthy at this time to be placed above so many other great players who have played more games and put up higher production. I also think they missed it on on Denver being #10. Not unlike the Cuse bias, Tierney gets a lot of credit at IL. Well deserved of course, but that team hasn’t lived up to its 2015 standard in recent years and its defense is not top 10 material this year.

[kramerica.inc]

OSU should be much higher, considering all their Team USA talent.

[DMac]

HopFan16 wrote
How on earth is Dordevic a preseason AA after not playing for a year? He only had 15 goals his freshman season—not like he was lighting up the scoreboard.

To take you a step further, how is anyone a preseason AA, T Award candidate, etc, etc, etc when they haven't even stepped on the field yet? I put zero stock in preseason polls and accolades. All based on potential, and we all know the definition of potential is you haven't done it yet.
I'm not ready to award any team the NC trophy, name anyone an AA, or give the T Award to anyone quite yet. As for Dordevic, maybe some of these guys have seen him play a little fall ball or been to a practice or two. The freshman who only had 15 goals is now a 21 year old (next month) more confident, more aggressive, bigger, stronger, faster, hungry player who has obviosly been working his tail off during the year he was sidelined. This kid is looking mighty good right now, if I had to point out a fault it would be that he's too aggressive and too hungry and looking to make up for lost time, but he'll calm down and get into the groove as the season goes on. The Cuse team is hungry and the attitude of the team is in the right place...lot of good players on this team, we'll see how it all works out.