All Things Russia & Ukraine

[old salt]

mmmm, it's definitely a natural boundary, but I think we'll see crossing elsewhere, if not pre XMAs, certainly in the spring. Eventual encirclement.

Meanwhile, it'll be all about precision strikes. Gonna be pretty miserable for Russian soldiers within reach.

The Ukrainians can sweep around from the E, between Donbas, Mariupol & the bend in the Dnipro where it changes from E-W to N-S.
The Russians are preparing multiple lines of defense in that breach.

[MDlaxfan76]

mmmm, it's definitely a natural boundary, but I think we'll see crossing elsewhere, if not pre XMAs, certainly in the spring. Eventual encirclement.

Meanwhile, it'll be all about precision strikes. Gonna be pretty miserable for Russian soldiers within reach.

The Ukrainians can sweep around from the E, between Donbas, Mariupol & the bend in the Dnipro where it changes from E-W to N-S.
The Russians are preparing multiple lines of defense in that breach.

One would assume so, but again, that's why the air will matter with precision strikes.

It's extremely unlikely that this all happens fast, but I think we'll see a very demoralized Russian force come spring/summer when the Ukrainians break through.

[old salt]

mmmm, it's definitely a natural boundary, but I think we'll see crossing elsewhere, if not pre XMAs, certainly in the spring. Eventual encirclement.

Meanwhile, it'll be all about precision strikes. Gonna be pretty miserable for Russian soldiers within reach.

The Ukrainians can sweep around from the E, between Donbas, Mariupol & the bend in the Dnipro where it changes from E-W to N-S.
The Russians are preparing multiple lines of defense in that breach.

One would assume so, but again, that's why the air will matter with precision strikes.

It's extremely unlikely that this all happens fast, but I think we'll see a very demoralized Russian force come spring/summer when the Ukrainians break through.

Biden says " It remains to be seen if the Ukrainian govt is prepared to compromise with Russia. ...they're pulling back from Fallujah, I mean Kherson, the city of Kherson & they're coming back across the river, to the eastern side of the river, the Russian forces, ...both are going to lick their wounds, decide what they're going to do over the winter & decide whether or not they're gonna compromise. ...I don't know what they're gonna do, but ...we're not gonna tell them what they have to do... "

[MDlaxfan76]

mmmm, it's definitely a natural boundary, but I think we'll see crossing elsewhere, if not pre XMAs, certainly in the spring. Eventual encirclement.

Meanwhile, it'll be all about precision strikes. Gonna be pretty miserable for Russian soldiers within reach.

The Ukrainians can sweep around from the E, between Donbas, Mariupol & the bend in the Dnipro where it changes from E-W to N-S.
The Russians are preparing multiple lines of defense in that breach.

One would assume so, but again, that's why the air will matter with precision strikes.

It's extremely unlikely that this all happens fast, but I think we'll see a very demoralized Russian force come spring/summer when the Ukrainians break through.

Biden says " It remains to be seen if the Ukrainian govt is prepared to compromise with Russia. ...they're pulling back from Fallujah, I mean Kherson, the city of Kherson & they're coming back across the river, to the eastern side of the river, the Russian forces, ...both are going to lick their wounds, decide what they're going to do over the winter & decide whether or not they're gonna compromise. ...I don't know what they're gonna do, but ...we're not gonna tell them what they have to do... "

yup, Biden and the US need to be positioned as favoring peace, but Putin and Zelensky won't be compromising.

The big question, seems to me, is whether we/the West provide Ukraine with the firepower to break the Russian military's morale. Gonna be a cold winter for those Russians stuck in Ukraine. Getting hit with precision weaponry...

[cradleandshoot]

mmmm, it's definitely a natural boundary, but I think we'll see crossing elsewhere, if not pre XMAs, certainly in the spring. Eventual encirclement.

Meanwhile, it'll be all about precision strikes. Gonna be pretty miserable for Russian soldiers within reach.

The Ukrainians can sweep around from the E, between Donbas, Mariupol & the bend in the Dnipro where it changes from E-W to N-S.
The Russians are preparing multiple lines of defense in that breach.

One would assume so, but again, that's why the air will matter with precision strikes.

It's extremely unlikely that this all happens fast, but I think we'll see a very demoralized Russian force come spring/summer when the Ukrainians break through.

Maybe the same way the Krauts felt after the siege of Stalingrad. A demoralized attacking army quickly loses its will to fight. Ask Field Marshall Paulus how he felt. If you studied your WW2 history you know he surrendered his army to the soviets and threw his boss under the bus for his incompetence. What goes around comes around. The FM wanted to withdraw and reorganize his army. The Bavarian corporal wanted him to fight to the death. The roles have changed. Putin replaces the Bavarian corporal when it comes to proving they are not military geniuses.

[old salt]

An astute observation on BBC news about Russia's strategic withdrawal from Kherson :

" A fighting retreat requires military skills that Russia has not demonstrated since the invasion.
Will Moscow try to negotiate safe passage out of Kherson for it's men ? "

The BBC reporter was embedded with the Ukrainian forces in Kherson. He interviewed their commander.
The Ukrainians were not pressing the attack. They were cautiously taking what the Russians were leaving.
They remain concerned about encountering mines, booby traps & shelling from Russian artillery dug in on the E side of the river.

[Kismet]

General Milley reportedly at odds with others in Biden Administration over Ukraine policy

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/us/p ... ticleShare

"Top U.S. General Urges Diplomacy in Ukraine While Biden Advisers Resist
Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has made the case that the Ukrainians should try to cement their gains at the bargaining table."

[MDlaxfan76]

General Milley reportedly at odds with others in Biden Administration over

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/us/p ... ticleShare

"Top U.S. General Urges Diplomacy in Ukraine While Biden Advisers Resist
Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has made the case that the Ukrainians should try to cement their gains at the bargaining table."

I think this is most likely akin to Biden's statements. The US has been very studiously positioned, from the very beginning, as wanting peace over war, favoring diplomacy over military force...while providing Ukraine incrementally more and more capacity to repel and ultimately defeat Putin's aggression.

We're going to continue to be publicly positioned that way for worldwide public consumption.

Milley is providing air cover for Biden's statements, and providing some ongoing opening for the discussions with the Russian military that have been happening.

That said, I think it would be a terrible strategic mistake to pressure Ukraine to accede. I think Ukraine will actually continue to make progress over the winter once the ground freezes, and be positioned to break the will of the Russian military in the spring/summer when the ground dries.

They continue to make weekly progress in the meantime, and the Russian counters are costing huge casualties for them.

[Kismet]

They continue to make weekly progress in the meantime, and the Russian counters are costing huge casualties for them.

Have you seen the latest casualty estimates from the Ukrainian side? triple digits there, too.

[MDlaxfan76]

They continue to make weekly progress in the meantime, and the Russian counters are costing huge casualties for them.

Have you seen the latest casulaty estimates from the Ukrainian side? triple digits there, too.

yes, awful.

The difference is that they know what they're fighting for.

Will the Russian moms put up with the losses?
The Ukrainian moms will...

[jhu72]

... lots of happy people celebrating in the streets of Kherson

[old salt]

Gen Milley's advice should be heeded. More than anyone else, he has access to the intel & expertise to judge the chances & costs of trying to take back more territory. He wants Ukraine to prevail & Russia to be defeated & weakened. If he thought the chances of success merited the costs of continuing the war, he would not be pushing for a diplomatic solution at this time.

obtw -- DoD just disapproved the transfer of MQ-1C Grey Eagle drones (the Army version of the old USAF/CIA MQ-1A/B Predator)
& still no ATACMS for the HIMARS systems.

Apparently the Russian frigate attacked by the drone boat is still afloat, pierside, positioned to be repaired, if needed.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-admi ... 00014.html

Kerch Strait Bridge repair update.
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-restore- ... 23819.html
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/36 ... gence.html

Pitch for Ukraine to get Swedish Saab Grippens if/when they get western fighter jets.
https://breakingdefense.com/2022/11/mad ... ne-report/
No news yet found if Slovakia's 14 recently retired Mig-29's are finding their way to Ukraine, in whole or disassembled as "spare parts."
https://theaviationist.com/2022/08/31/s ... r-ukraine/
Bulgaria retiring their Mig-29's in 2023.
https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... lion-deal/

Good explainer & maps of Kherson region.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/ ... ed-in-maps

[PizzaSnake]

Gen Milley's advice should be heeded. More than anyone else, he has access to the intel & expertise to judge the chances & costs of trying to take back more territory. He wants Ukraine to prevail & Russia to be defeated & weakened. If he thought the chances of success merited the costs of continuing the war, he would not be pushing for a diplomatic solution at this time.

obtw -- DoD just disapproved the transfer of MQ-1C Grey Eagle drones (the Army version of the old USAF/CIA MQ-1A/B Predator)
& still no ATACMS for the HIMARS systems.

Apparently the Russian frigate attacked by the drone boat is still afloat, pierside, positioned to be repaired, if needed.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-admi ... 00014.html

Kerch Strait Bridge repair update.
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-restore- ... 23819.html
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/36 ... gence.html

Pitch for Ukraine to get Swedish Saab Grippens if/when they get western fighter jets.
https://breakingdefense.com/2022/11/mad ... ne-report/
No news yet found if Slovakia's 14 recently retired Mig-29's are finding their way to Ukraine, in whole or disassembled as "spare parts."
https://theaviationist.com/2022/08/31/s ... r-ukraine/
Bulgaria retiring their Mig-29's in 2023.
https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... lion-deal/

Good explainer & maps of Kherson region.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/ ... ed-in-maps

“Gen Milley's advice should be heeded.”

Why don’t you let Zelensky and Ukraine know you feel that way?

[old salt]

Gen Milley's advice should be heeded. More than anyone else, he has access to the intel & expertise to judge the chances & costs of trying to take back more territory. He wants Ukraine to prevail & Russia to be defeated & weakened. If he thought the chances of success merited the costs of continuing the war, he would not be pushing for a diplomatic solution at this time.

obtw -- DoD just disapproved the transfer of MQ-1C Grey Eagle drones (the Army version of the old USAF/CIA MQ-1A/B Predator)
& still no ATACMS for the HIMARS systems.

Apparently the Russian frigate attacked by the drone boat is still afloat, pierside, positioned to be repaired, if needed.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-admi ... 00014.html

Kerch Strait Bridge repair update.
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-restore- ... 23819.html
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/36 ... gence.html

Pitch for Ukraine to get Swedish Saab Grippens if/when they get western fighter jets.
https://breakingdefense.com/2022/11/mad ... ne-report/
No news yet found if Slovakia's 14 recently retired Mig-29's are finding their way to Ukraine, in whole or disassembled as "spare parts."
https://theaviationist.com/2022/08/31/s ... r-ukraine/
Bulgaria retiring their Mig-29's in 2023.
https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... lion-deal/

Good explainer & maps of Kherson region.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/ ... ed-in-maps

“Gen Milley's advice should be heeded.”

Why don’t you let Zelensky and Ukraine know you feel that way?

No need to. He can hear Milley, see the weapons we're giving him, & those we are not, & figure it out for himself.

[old salt]

This is not compatible with keeping the grain shipment safety corridor in place.
If not extended, it expires Nov 19.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/ ... s-from-sea

Ukraine seeks naval drones to counter Russian attacks from sea
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has backed a fundraising campaign to buy 100 drones that operate at sea.

[MDlaxfan76]

Desperate for White Christian Nationalism to prevail.
For Russian aggression to be rewarded...

[old salt]

Desperate for White Christian Nationalism to prevail.
For Russian aggression to be rewarded...

I don't interpret Gen Milley's remarks that way at all.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/us/p ... omacy.html
In internal discussions at the White House, General Milley has been a strong voice for diplomacy but does not want to give the impression of undercutting the Ukrainians, officials said. He has pointed to satellite imagery showing that the Russians are digging trenches and establishing firm lines through much of the occupied territory in preparation for winter, when the fronts presumably will stabilize. The pullback from Kherson appeared to be aimed at setting up a more defensible position.

Given that, officials said, the general has argued that fighting may ease during the cold months with less chance of further fundamental change on the ground, offering a window of opportunity for talks. In White House discussions, he cites World War I, when the two sides engaged in years of trench warfare with little change in territory but millions of pointless casualties, an example he aired in his speech at the Economic Club of New York this week as well.

The point is not to reward Mr. Putin, officials said in describing the general’s view, but that maybe this is a time when Ukraine and its allies can start working toward a political solution because an enduring military solution may not be obtainable in the near future.

[MDlaxfan76]

Desperate for White Christian Nationalism to prevail.
For Russian aggression to be rewarded...

I don't interpret Gen Milley's remarks that way at all.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/us/p ... omacy.html
In internal discussions at the White House, General Milley has been a strong voice for diplomacy but does not want to give the impression of undercutting the Ukrainians, officials said. He has pointed to satellite imagery showing that the Russians are digging trenches and establishing firm lines through much of the occupied territory in preparation for winter, when the fronts presumably will stabilize. The pullback from Kherson appeared to be aimed at setting up a more defensible position.

Given that, officials said, the general has argued that fighting may ease during the cold months with less chance of further fundamental change on the ground, offering a window of opportunity for talks. In White House discussions, he cites World War I, when the two sides engaged in years of trench warfare with little change in territory but millions of pointless casualties, an example he aired in his speech at the Economic Club of New York this week as well.

The point is not to reward Mr. Putin, officials said in describing the general’s view, but that maybe this is a time when Ukraine and its allies can start working toward a political solution because an enduring military solution may not be obtainable in the near future.

I don't either...as I have repeatedly said, I think his remarks reflect Biden Admin public facing policy.

We're positioned as favoring peace over war, diplomacy over more death and destruction.
Taking down the chances of nuclear.

But neither Putin and the Russian hardliners nor the Ukrainians are ready. Nor will they likely do so over the winter.

Russia will need to leave and return the civilians, including children, they deported into the bowels of Russia and that's not going to happen because of a winter stalemate.

Milley undoubtedly knows this.

[MDlaxfan76]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/12/europe/k ... index.html

[old salt]

Russia will need to leave and return the civilians, including children, they deported into the bowels of Russia and that's not going to happen because of a winter stalemate.

Milley undoubtedly knows this.

Who says ? You ? Wars don't end that way. Remember the Balkans. That can all be resolved postwar, with a right to return.