2023 D3 NCAA Tournament Bracket

[InsiderRoll]

UPDATED 4/25

AQ’s – 28 Spots
Cabrini (Atlantic East) – 1 bid
Endicott (CCC) – 1 bid
Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW) – 1bid
*Dickinson (Centennial) – multi-bid
New England College (CSAC) – 1 bid
Saint John Fisher (Empire 8) – 1 bid
Emmanuel (Great Northeast) – 1 bid
Colorado College (HCMLC) – 1 bid
Elizabethtown (Landmark) – 1 bid
*RIT (Liberty League) – multi-bid
Keene State (Little East) – 1 bid
*York (MAC-Commonwealth) – 1 bid
Stevens Tech (MAC-Freedom) – 1 bid
Albion (MIAA) – 1 bid
Lake Forest (MLC) – 1 bid
Denison (NCAC) – 1 bid
*Tufts (NESCAC) – multi-bid
Babson (NEWMAC) – 1 bid
Maine-Maritime (North Atlantic) – 1 bid
Aurora (NACC) – 1 bid
Baldwin-Wallace (OAC) – 1 bid
*Hampden-Sydney (ODAC) – multi-bid
Grove City (PAC) – 1 bid
Centre (SAA) – 1 bid
Farmingdale St. (Skyline) – 1 bid
SUNY-Geneseo (SUNYAC) – 1 bid
St. Mary’s-MD (United East) – 1 bid
Piedmont (USA South) – 1 bid

At-Large/ Pool C - 10 Spots

Current Resume TODAY

1. Middlebury (13-1)
SOS: 3
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 6-1
Record vs USILA Top 20: 5-1
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins: Amherst, Bowdoin,
Top 20 Wins: Union, St. Lawrence, RPI

2. Salisbury (14-1)
SOS: 17
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 5-1
Record vs USILA Top 20: 4-1
Top 5 Wins: Christopher Newport
Top 10 Wins:
Top 20 Wins: York, Lynchburg, Cabrini

3. Christopher Newport (14-1)
SOS: 8
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 6-1
Record vs USILA Top 20: 5-1
Top 5 Wins: RIT
Top 10 Wins: W&L, Dickinson
Top 20 Wins: Lynchburg, Williams

4. Gettysburg (11-3)
SOS: 15
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 4-3
Record vs USILA Top 20: 3-3
Top 5 Wins: Salisbury
Top 10 Wins: W&L
Top 20 Wins: York

5. Bowdoin (11-3)
SOS: 11
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 2-3
Record vs USILA Top 20: 0-3
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins:
Top 20 Wins:

6. Williams (9-5)
SOS: 2
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 4-3
Record vs USILA Top 20: 3-3
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins: Bowdoin, Amherst
Top 20 Wins: RPI

7. Swarthmore (12-2)
SOS: 32
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 3-1
Record vs USILA Top 20: 1-1
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins: Gettysburg
Top 20 Wins:

8. Washington and Lee (12-4)
SOS: 30
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 3-4
Record vs USILA Top 20: 2-3
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins:
Top 20 Wins: York, Denison

LAST TWO IN

9. Union (9-5)
SOS: 7
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 2-6
Record vs USILA Top 20: 2-5
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins:
Top 20 Wins: St. Lawrence, Williams

10. St. Lawrence (11-4)
SOS: 27
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 2-4
Record vs USILA Top 20: 1-3
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins:
Top 20 Wins: Lynchburg

JUST MISSED

11. Amherst (9-4)
SOS: 4
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 2-4
Record vs USILA Top 20: 2-3
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins: Bowdoin
Top 20 Wins: York

12. RPI (8-6)
SOS: 13
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 4-3
Record vs USILA Top 20: 2-3
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins:
Top 20 Wins: St. Lawrence, Union

13. Lynchburg (10-5)
SOS: 18
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 2-4
Record vs USILA Top 20: 2-4
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins: W&L
Top 20 Wins: Cabrini

14. Clarkson (11-3)
SOS: 35
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 3-2
Record vs USILA Top 20: 2-2
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins:
Top 20 Wins: Union, St. Lawrence

15. Wesleyan (8-6)
SOS: 10
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 1-5
Record vs USILA Top 20: 1-5
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins: Amherst
Top 20 Wins:

16. Muhlenberg (10-5)
SOS: 28
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 1-4
Record vs USILA Top 20: 1-4
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins: Dickinson
Top 20 Wins:

17. MIT (11-4)
SOS: 36
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 1-1
Record vs USILA Top 20: 1-1
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins:
Top 20 Wins: RPI

18. Kenyon (13-1)
SOS: 69
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 3-1
Record vs USILA Top 20: 1-0
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins:
Top 20 Wins: Denison

1st Draft Bracket

Medford, MA
1. Tufts
16. Emmanuel/New England College
----
8. Stevens Tech
9. Babson

Gettysburg, PA
4. Gettysburg
13. Grove City
----
5. Denison
12. Hampden-Sydney

Rochester, NY
2. RIT
15. Albion/ Baldwin-Wallace
----
7. Swarthmore
10. Elizabethtown

Newport News, VA
3. Christopher Newport
14. Aurora/Lake Forest
----
6. York
11. Cabrini

---------

Middlebury, VT
1. Middlebury
16. Farmingdale St./Maine-Maritime
----
8. Union
9. Keene State

Brunswick, ME
4. Bowdoin
13. Illinois Wesleyan
----
5. St. Lawrence
12. Endicott

Salisbury, MD
2. Salisbury
15. St. Mary’s (MD)/Piedmont
----
7. Washington and Lee
10. SUNY-Geneseo

Carlisle, PA
3. Dickinson
14. Centre/Colorado College
----
6. Williams
11. St. John-Fisher

[LaxTime87]

Great work here...thanks for breaking it down. I did not see Colorado College in your bracket (maybe playing Centre in Round 1)

How did you determine who played in the Round 1 games? Just an educated guess or is it rankings based?

[InsiderRoll]

Great work here...thanks for breaking it down. I did not see Colorado College in your bracket (maybe playing Centre in Round 1)

How did you determine who played in the Round 1 games? Just an educated guess or is it rankings based?

Updated. Nice catch.

Combination of strength of resume and geography. Projecting the bracket is very difficult now that pod system has broken D3 away from the old north south format.

[Laxattackjack]

How on earth are you putting W&L ahead of Lynchburg?
Lynchburg is better in every stat. Head to head, regional record. Top 10 wins. The only way I see W&L getting in, is if they win the ODAC

[InsiderRoll]

How on earth are you putting W&L ahead of Lynchburg?
Lynchburg is better in every stat. Head to head, regional record. Top 10 wins. The only way I see W&L getting in, is if they win the ODAC

They have a worse regional record. Their only high quality win at this time is against W&L. While W&L has wins against York and Denison, both of whom favor well in computer rankings.

Lynchburg’s other top 20 win is an against a team that isn’t even regionally ranked, Cabrini. The loss to RMC is an ugly blemish for Lynchburg.

They both have stronger resumes than HSC, HSC is AQ Or bust right now. At the end of the day the ODAC tourney may very act as an NCAA play in for those 3 teams. The ODAC could be anywhere from a 1 bid to a 3 bid league (however that last one is unlikely). However the Liberty League is canibalizing itself right now. Even RIT doesn’t have a stellar resume. And in fact I should of switched their seed and bracket with CNU

[JustOneTime]

There will be a bunch of disappointed teams this year come selection day.

[BallBag]

Hey "Insider,"

Let's talk Liberty League for one second.. What are your thoughts on St. Lawrence and Union and their odds of still making the NCAA tournament after this weekend? SLU is playing RIT.... and Union is playing Vassar. One of these two teams potentially will not even make the Liberty League semi-finals. Would they still get in? Or does it open the door for RPI and Clarkson who basically have the #2 and # 3 seed locked up in the Liberty League tournament... RPI I think would have a better SOS. Can they still get in?

[InsiderRoll]

Hey "Insider,"

Let's talk Liberty League for one second.. What are your thoughts on St. Lawrence and Union and their odds of still making the NCAA tournament after this weekend? SLU is playing RIT.... and Union is playing Vassar. One of these two teams potentially will not even make the Liberty League semi-finals. Would they still get in? Or does it open the door for RPI and Clarkson who basically have the #2 and # 3 seed locked up in the Liberty League tournament... RPI I think would have a better SOS. Can they still get in?

Very open. Both of them keep holding for dear life. But have been steadily falling. RPI is very close as is Clarkson. RPI just has a few bad losses to overcome that hurt their win percentage.

People keep pointing to the head to head but that doesn’t come into play until late comparisons. There is a never ending web of head to head wins of teams once you get outside the top 5 teams.

W&L beat Denison
Denison beat HSC
HSC beat W&L
W&L beat York
York beat Denison
Denison beat Gettysburg
Gettysburg beat York

You can go in circles with many of these teams until your brain melts. The margin between the 6-14 teams in that at-large consideration is getting razor thin.

[BallBag]

Ha! Very true... Thanks for your thoughts

[Laxattackjack]

You are projecting 3 host teams coming from one conference. Bowdoin will likely be closing out the season with two straight losses. No way they are hosing over a team that wins its conference

I also think Gettysburg hosting when they probably won’t even be playing for the conference champ.

I see at most, two hosting from NESCAC
I only see one host from centennial

[InsiderRoll]

You are projecting 3 host teams coming from one conference. Bowdoin will likely be closing out the season with two straight losses. No way they are hosing over a team that wins its conference

I also think Gettysburg hosting when they probably won’t even be playing for the conference champ.

I see at most, two hosting from NESCAC
I only see one host from centennial

They are projections based on the current state of things. Everyone still has games to play. Lots of these teams will incur another loss, likely to a quality opponent. Gettysburg may not be the 2 seed but bet the house they’ll beat swarthmore in a rematch

[SixBySix]

Gettysburg may not be the 2 seed but bet the house they’ll beat swarthmore in a rematch

Eh, Gettysburg has played down to Swat for a long time--it's only recently started to bite them (lost 3 of the last 5, but also had multiple narrow escapes in the years before that, back when Swat wasn't anywhere remotely as good as they are now). The Centennial has some weird idiosyncrasies, and Gettysburg underperforming against the Garnet is one of them.

That said, I'll agree they will be healthy favorites even as the 3 seed. But I'd recommend only putting a mortgage payment on it, not the whole house.

[InsiderRoll]

Gettysburg may not be the 2 seed but bet the house they’ll beat swarthmore in a rematch

Eh, Gettysburg has played down to Swat for a long time--it's only recently started to bite them (lost 3 of the last 5, but also had multiple narrow escapes in the years before that, back when Swat wasn't anywhere remotely as good as they are now). The Centennial has some weird idiosyncrasies, and Gettysburg underperforming against the Garnet is one of them.

That said, I'll agree they will be healthy favorites even as the 3 seed. But I'd recommend only putting a mortgage payment on it, not the whole house.

Fair enough

[SpartanLaxFanatic]

Don't understand the soft complaining about multiple NESCAC/Centennial sites. I also think GBurg will make CC final but the reality is that they are rewarded for having a solid OOC and playing in one of the toughest conferences in D3. Their overall resume is extremely well rounded and have some high quality wins, especially in region. Same thing happens every year with the Top 3 of NESCAC/Centennial/Liberty and to a similar extent with the CLC with the top 2 of CNU and Salisbury.

[Laxattackjack]

Don't understand the soft complaining about multiple NESCAC/Centennial sites. I also think GBurg will make CC final but the reality is that they are rewarded for having a solid OOC and playing in one of the toughest conferences in D3. Their overall resume is extremely well rounded and have some high quality wins, especially in region. Same thing happens every year with the Top 3 of NESCAC/Centennial/Liberty and to a similar extent with the CLC with the top 2 of CNU and Salisbury.

I don’t see a problem giving 3 first round home games to a conference if you can find a way to get three conference winners from the same conference. But in reality, only two teams can play in the conference final. And only one will win. So you want to reward two teams that couldn’t even win the conference, with a first round home game?? Let’s look at Bowdoin. Their best win is Wesleyan. A borderline top 20 team. They are 0-3 and soon to be 0-4 vs top 20 teams. They don’t have a solid win. They will most likely lose prior to the finals. That will give them 0-5 vs top 20 teams. They probably shouldn’t even make the tourney, let alone be a first round host.

I can see tufts and middlebury playing in the conference finals. And if middlebury wins, or keeps it close, they both deserve a first round home game. But if tufts blows them out, they don’t deserve a home first round game.

As for the CC. The winner should get a first round home game. But there are only 8 first round home teams. They will likely go to the 8 best teams. Gettysburgh and Dickinson are ranked 6-7 or 7-8. Depending on the poll. The loser is dropping out of the top 8, unless the teams right behind them W&L and York, lose their conference final.

I predict Dickinson wins that conference and gets a first round home game.

[SixBySix]

Let’s look at Bowdoin. Their best win is Wesleyan. A borderline top 20 team. They are 0-3 and soon to be 0-4 vs top 20 teams. They don’t have a solid win. They will most likely lose prior to the finals. That will give them 0-5 vs top 20 teams. They probably shouldn’t even make the tourney, let alone be a first round host.

OK, I'll bite. Who should be hosting over Bowdoin and Gettysburg? Which 1) conference winner or runner up has 2) multiple Top 20 wins and is 3) being left out here?

[Laxattackjack]

We will have to see. But the teams hosting, should be the 8 best teams going into the tourney.

Bowdoin going 0-5 against top 20 teams, with no good wins, should keep them out of the tourney.

If things go the way they should go, the obvious teams to start are

Tufts
Salisbury
Middlebury
CNU
RIT

The winner of the CC conference


The last two spots will come down to…
York if they win the MAC
W&L if they win the ODAC


Long shot…..If Amhearst or Bowdoin can win the conference, they will have earned a home game.

[SixBySix]

The last two spots will come down to…
York if they win the MAC
W&L if they win the ODAC

Ah, yes, York, work their best win over Denison and second best win against... *checks notes* 7-7 F&M? Or arguably it was against 2nd-to-last-in-the-Centennial Ursinus?

Or W&L, with their wins over York, Denison, and... 7-7 Ithaca? 10-7 Roanoke who got swept 3-0 by the Centennial?

Gettysburg, by comparison, has beaten Salisbury, York, and W&L. Dickinson has wins over Cabrini, Gettysburg, Stevens, and Swat.

I'll give you that Williams seems to have a better case for hosting that Bowdoin, but InsiderRoll is very, very good at this.

You've made multiple posts that seem to indicate that you have a fundamental misunderstanding of how many teams with outstanding records there are in a given year in D3. The fact of the matter is that after the top 5-6, a resume is built on consistently/convincingly beating the teams in the 25-40 range, which is what the top handful of teams in the top conferences do. If you're a team that's loading up your OOC with Top 10 games, you're either one of a very small number of elite teams, or you will have a very small number of standout wins to hang your hat on.

[SpartanLaxFanatic]

The last two spots will come down to…
York if they win the MAC
W&L if they win the ODAC

Ah, yes, York, work their best win over Denison and second best win against... *checks notes* 7-7 F&M? Or arguably it was against 2nd-to-last-in-the-Centennial Ursinus?

Or W&L, with their wins over York, Denison, and... 7-7 Ithaca? 10-7 Roanoke who got swept 3-0 by the Centennial?

Gettysburg, by comparison, has beaten Salisbury, York, and W&L. Dickinson has wins over Cabrini, Gettysburg, Stevens, and Swat.

I'll give you that Williams seems to have a better case for hosting that Bowdoin, but InsiderRoll is very, very good at this.

You've made multiple posts that seem to indicate that you have a fundamental misunderstanding of how many teams with outstanding records there are in a given year in D3. The fact of the matter is that after the top 5-6, a resume is built on consistently/convincingly beating the teams in the 25-40 range, which is what the top handful of teams in the top conferences do. If you're a team that's loading up your OOC with Top 10 games, you're either one of a very small number of elite teams, or you will have a very small number of standout wins to hang your hat on.

I just love that he listed two teams that Gettysburg beat......on the road.
I'll stand by what I said, NESCAC and Centennial have been the best two conferences this year. That's why they deserve 2 home sites in the NCAA tourney, SLU and Union have stumbled a bit down the stretch or else they'd have a good argument as well.

CNU and Salisbury loaded up their non-conference and delivered with a bunch of great wins. It's pretty simple math.

[InsiderRoll]

The last two spots will come down to…
York if they win the MAC
W&L if they win the ODAC

Ah, yes, York, work their best win over Denison and second best win against... *checks notes* 7-7 F&M? Or arguably it was against 2nd-to-last-in-the-Centennial Ursinus?

Or W&L, with their wins over York, Denison, and... 7-7 Ithaca? 10-7 Roanoke who got swept 3-0 by the Centennial?

Gettysburg, by comparison, has beaten Salisbury, York, and W&L. Dickinson has wins over Cabrini, Gettysburg, Stevens, and Swat.

I'll give you that Williams seems to have a better case for hosting that Bowdoin, but InsiderRoll is very, very good at this.

You've made multiple posts that seem to indicate that you have a fundamental misunderstanding of how many teams with outstanding records there are in a given year in D3. The fact of the matter is that after the top 5-6, a resume is built on consistently/convincingly beating the teams in the 25-40 range, which is what the top handful of teams in the top conferences do. If you're a team that's loading up your OOC with Top 10 games, you're either one of a very small number of elite teams, or you will have a very small number of standout wins to hang your hat on.

I just love that he listed two teams that Gettysburg beat......on the road.
I'll stand by what I said, NESCAC and Centennial have been the best two conferences this year. That's why they deserve 2 home sites in the NCAA tourney, SLU and Union have stumbled a bit down the stretch or else they'd have a good argument as well.

CNU and Salisbury loaded up their non-conference and delivered with a bunch of great wins. It's pretty simple math.

Winning your conference has never been a criteria for hosting. Geography could matter but mostly for seeding and site selection the following weekend.

After I ran the numbers and made my bracket it is clear that Bowdoin will not host. But I did not want to start from the ground up again. (Admittedly it’s a lot of work)Todays regional ranking release proved two things. Lynchburg is not out of the field right now and would get a pool C. Williams and RPI are ahead of their conference counterparts.

I will adjust it next week.