Coronavirus

[Matnum PI]

Philip Klein @philipaklein
37 mins ago
In other news, yesterday the U.S. had a record 3,865 Covid deaths.

[MDlaxfan76]

Philip Klein @philipaklein
37 mins ago
In other news, yesterday the U.S. had a record 3,865 Covid deaths.

Holiday effect now kicking in.

Daily case rate well above 200k, looks like headed north to 300k on steep trajectory.

According to worldometer (day ahead of JHU)

Just broke 4k deaths in a day for first time.

[MDlaxfan76]

Dump the other thread.
Title remains offensive.

[CU88]

I have hopes that the new administration will act to its fullest to get more masks distributed and go over board with helping the states distribute the vaccines.

[dislaxxic]

Much more talk about using the Defense Production Act now...about time...

..

[MDlaxfan76]

wgdsr » Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:43 am

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:19 am
Holiday effect now kicking in.

Daily case rate well above 200k, looks like headed north to 300k on steep trajectory.

Just broke 4k deaths in a day for first time.

WGDSR
we won't get normalized case and death stats until probably a week from now according to the experts, to know a comparable snapshot.

cases are just <2% higher than dec 17, and 7 day deaths are lower than several days after that of around 2700. right now, we're still in holiday reporting lag.

testing is down and some people say that's possibly a result of all the testing at colleges being suspended. which is substantial but maybe not that large? one relatively current metric thru holidays is hospitalizations, which continue to rise.

trailing 7 day trajectory is already normalized. Take a look. Dip (whether due to less testing or other factors) is over.

Trajectory already looks clear, but you are certainly correct if you are implying that we're only beginning to get these numbers and won't really know how bad the holiday effect (versus just general upward trend) will be until some weeks from now.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[MDlaxfan76]

It will be interesting to see the next updated projections from IHME...they haven't updated since December 23. Bunch more case, hospitalization, and death data (and other factors) plus the specter of the more rapid spreading variant, progression of vaccine distribution etc.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-s ... &tab=trend

[Typical Lax Dad]

wgdsr » Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:43 am

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:19 am
Holiday effect now kicking in.

Daily case rate well above 200k, looks like headed north to 300k on steep trajectory.

Just broke 4k deaths in a day for first time.

WGDSR
we won't get normalized case and death stats until probably a week from now according to the experts, to know a comparable snapshot.

cases are just <2% higher than dec 17, and 7 day deaths are lower than several days after that of around 2700. right now, we're still in holiday reporting lag.

testing is down and some people say that's possibly a result of all the testing at colleges being suspended. which is substantial but maybe not that large? one relatively current metric thru holidays is hospitalizations, which continue to rise.

trailing 7 day trajectory is already normalized. Take a look. Dip (whether due to less testing or other factors) is over.

Trajectory already looks clear, but you are certainly correct if you are implying that we're only beginning to get these numbers and won't really know how bad the holiday effect (versus just general upward trend) will be until some weeks from now.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I am hoping we get some relief by the end of this month. Holiday travel and gatherings were not (likely) helpful but we have a pretty long road before easter and memorial day. Should buy us some time.

[ardilla secreta]

Dump the other thread.
Title remains offensive.

Thank you for starting this topic without the insensitive/racist title.

[wgdsr]

wgdsr » Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:43 am

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:19 am
Holiday effect now kicking in.

Daily case rate well above 200k, looks like headed north to 300k on steep trajectory.

Just broke 4k deaths in a day for first time.

WGDSR
we won't get normalized case and death stats until probably a week from now according to the experts, to know a comparable snapshot.

cases are just <2% higher than dec 17, and 7 day deaths are lower than several days after that of around 2700. right now, we're still in holiday reporting lag.

testing is down and some people say that's possibly a result of all the testing at colleges being suspended. which is substantial but maybe not that large? one relatively current metric thru holidays is hospitalizations, which continue to rise.

trailing 7 day trajectory is already normalized. Take a look. Dip (whether due to less testing or other factors) is over.

Trajectory already looks clear, but you are certainly correct if you are implying that we're only beginning to get these numbers and won't really know how bad the holiday effect (versus just general upward trend) will be until some weeks from now.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

if that's what you believe, then we are at the same spot we were at 3 weeks ago. so no rise. what i'm saying is i (and others) don't believe the numbers have actually filled yet, so they may actually be higher. you're saying the numbers are exactly where they are. which is essentially the same as 3 weeks ago.

holiday reporting you have to dip, recover, and then numbers from then on are useful. and you need 7 days to get them.

[MDlaxfan76]

Dump the other thread.
Title remains offensive.

Thank you for starting this topic without the insensitive/racist title.

Not me, Matnum. I just think it's a good idea!

[MDlaxfan76]

wgdsr » Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:43 am

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:19 am
Holiday effect now kicking in.

Daily case rate well above 200k, looks like headed north to 300k on steep trajectory.

Just broke 4k deaths in a day for first time.

WGDSR
we won't get normalized case and death stats until probably a week from now according to the experts, to know a comparable snapshot.

cases are just <2% higher than dec 17, and 7 day deaths are lower than several days after that of around 2700. right now, we're still in holiday reporting lag.

testing is down and some people say that's possibly a result of all the testing at colleges being suspended. which is substantial but maybe not that large? one relatively current metric thru holidays is hospitalizations, which continue to rise.

trailing 7 day trajectory is already normalized. Take a look. Dip (whether due to less testing or other factors) is over.

Trajectory already looks clear, but you are certainly correct if you are implying that we're only beginning to get these numbers and won't really know how bad the holiday effect (versus just general upward trend) will be until some weeks from now.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

if that's what you believe, then we are at the same spot we were at 3 weeks ago. so no rise. what i'm saying is i (and others) don't believe the numbers have actually filled yet, so they may actually be higher. you're saying the numbers are exactly where they are. which is essentially the same as 3 weeks ago.

holiday reporting you have to dip, recover, and then numbers from then on are useful. and you need 7 days to get them.

I read the lines as there was a dip (dunno how much was due to lower reporting/testing for a week versus there'd previously been a surge in people getting tested in order to travel or be released from quarantine requirements due to travel) and now the surge has begun, though only the forward edge. I'm also factoring the accumulating hospitalizations at new, highest levels. And yeah, first day over 4k deaths. I think you're 100% correct that there's likely a substantial lag in any data we're seeing, so, like you, my own expectation is that we're going to see some ever higher #'s for the next few weeks...sure hope the vaccinations make a dent.

Little bit of good news, my buddy just got his 88 yr old mom's vaccination date scheduled for next week...and his own, he's 62 but she lives with them and he has same doctor...

My 84 yr old mom is in same system and has put in for her date. Different doc, but same hospital etc. I doubt my wife and I, much less son, all co-habitating, will get squeezed in, but that would certainly be an unexpected bonus...we do not have docs in this system, they're back up in Baltimore. Son doesn't have any doc relationship.

[CU88]

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... -been-slow

We try to avoid always asking you to predict the future. But if Americans did abide by the public health measures — measures like social distancing and masking — when could things get back to normal?

Well, you know, you can't look at that in a vacuum because as we're trying to get people to adhere uniformly to public health measures, we're having the rollout of the vaccine. We have a highly efficacious vaccine, 94% to 95% effective. As the months go by, I would expect by the time we get to April, it will be what we call open season on vaccines. Everyone will be able to get a vaccine. So I think by the end of the summer, if we get 70% to 85% of the population vaccinated and get a good herd immunity, I think by the fall we could start to approach some form of normality.

[CU88]

At least 4,112 new coronavirus deaths and 280,292 new cases were reported in the United States on Jan. 7.

[MDlaxfan76]

At least 4,112 new coronavirus deaths and 280,292 new cases were reported in the United States on Jan. 7.

Worldometer has it at 4,207 yesterday and 4,100 the day before...they're typically a day ahead of Hopkin's reporting on deaths.

First days above 4k to date. Back to back.

279k new cases a day ago, 261k two days ago.

But wgdsr is correct that the trailing 7 days on both are only slightly higher than the peaks right before XMas. But new upward trajectory looks very bad.

[wgdsr]

let me see if i can do a little more thorough job of explaining this, but it may just lead to confusion.

i'll stick to deaths but the same applies to testing, although that's more nebulous especially around the holidays. we'll start with 2 hypotheticals for ease, one of which is likely true and one is likely false:
- our actual death rate did not go down after december 22. people didn't just try to hang on until the holiday was over and were successful - true
- our death rate stayed the same from december 22 until now. it likely rose, how much no one knows, but it helps to initially describe reporting - false

so on dec 22 our 7 day average was 2783. on dec 28 (and dec 29) it was 2250 at its low point. so assuming this didn't actually happen and considering that the main reporting (worldometer and johns hopkins) has rarely gone back and filled in date of death... those deaths are not reported yet by dec 29. had this decline happened in 1 day, or 4 days or 7 days... it would account for the same amount of unreported deaths. 7 x 533 = 3,731. because of the 7 day averaging.
an aside, had this gone on for > than 7 days, it would be adding to the total. but it didn't.

then the totals start to rise. had we gotten back to the baseline on the next day, dec 30 for 7 day averaging... this would've meant that the vast majority of those 3,731 deaths had now been accounted for. one huge day, 6 low days, but we are back on track as a 7 day average. but it took over a week to get to the baseline. jan 6/7. that suggests that only the week prior (dec 31-jan 6) is normal for a 7 day average and it didn't actually pick up many if any of the 3,731 that were left over from dec 22-29.

so now we still have those non-reported deaths to be reported. you can expect that the next week (or 2) will include them. this doesn't even address that we were rising and not flat, and for the 2 weeks or so since our high water mark, there could be a rise of 100/200 or more per day in there. an average of 150 over 2 weeks+ would be another 2,100+.

in this coming week or so, you would have to see those 3,731 + rising numbers (2,100+) come in. people will no doubt see it as a spike from the holidays. but the numbers are absent and have to be accounted for. if they get them all in the next week, starting mid-january you'll then get a read on where we are, with the maybe jan 22 7 day average being the most accurate since a month prior.

in the meantime, we are in makeup territory and there is no judging what the actual numbers are. unless we've had actual decline since dec 22, i would expect us to be hitting well into the 3,000s at least as an average on reporting in the next week. i'll be most interested in the jan 22 number if they have the dec 23-29 + any dec 22 - jan 7 growth accounted for in the next week.

if anyone knows of a national number that fills in as of date of death (it will have some lag for probably a couple weeks), i'd appreciate a link.

[Bart]

let me see if i can do a little more thorough job of explaining this, but it may just lead to confusion.

i'll stick to deaths but the same applies to testing, although that's more nebulous especially around the holidays. we'll start with 2 hypotheticals for ease, one of which is likely true and one is likely false:
- our actual death rate did not go down after december 22. people didn't just try to hang on until the holiday was over and were successful - true
- our death rate stayed the same from december 22 until now. it likely rose, how much no one knows, but it helps to initially describe reporting - false

so on dec 22 our 7 day average was 2783. on dec 28 (and dec 29) it was 2250 at its low point. so assuming this didn't actually happen and considering that the main reporting (worldometer and johns hopkins) has rarely gone back and filled in date of death... those deaths are not reported yet by dec 29. had this decline happened in 1 day, or 4 days or 7 days... it would account for the same amount of unreported deaths. 7 x 533 = 3,731. because of the 7 day averaging.
an aside, had this gone on for > than 7 days, it would be adding to the total. but it didn't.

then the totals start to rise. had we gotten back to the baseline on the next day, dec 30 for 7 day averaging... this would've meant that the vast majority of those 3,731 deaths had now been accounted for. one huge day, 6 low days, but we are back on track as a 7 day average. but it took over a week to get to the baseline. jan 6/7. that suggests that only the week prior (dec 31-jan 6) is normal for a 7 day average and it didn't actually pick up many if any of the 3,731 that were left over from dec 22-29.

so now we still have those non-reported deaths to be reported. you can expect that the next week (or 2) will include them. this doesn't even address that we were rising and not flat, and for the 2 weeks or so since our high water mark, there could be a rise of 100/200 or more per day in there. an average of 150 over 2 weeks+ would be another 2,100+.

in this coming week or so, you would have to see those 3,731 + rising numbers (2,100+) come in. people will no doubt see it as a spike from the holidays. but the numbers are absent and have to be accounted for. if they get them all in the next week, starting mid-january you'll then get a read on where we are, with the maybe jan 22 7 day average being the most accurate since a month prior.

in the meantime, we are in makeup territory and there is no judging what the actual numbers are. unless we've had actual decline since dec 22, i would expect us to be hitting well into the 3,000s at least as an average on reporting in the next week. i'll be most interested in the jan 22 number if they have the dec 23-29 + any dec 22 - jan 7 growth accounted for in the next week.

if anyone knows of a national number that fills in as of date of death (it will have some lag for probably a couple weeks), i'd appreciate a link.

Ahhhh, I see. So what you’re actually saying is it’s all a hoax

Kidding.

[CU77]

IHME predictions:

What about across the United States as a whole?

Because of seasonality, we expect numbers will keep increasing this winter, but we also expect that states will reimpose mandates because the cases are increasing too much and too fast. The peak will happen sometime toward the end of January and start coming down after that. Across the United States, we expect the cumulative number of deaths to be 567,200 by April 1.

The vaccine and warm weather seasonality will help us. So sometime in April or May it will be much better, and all our projections for the summer look like not much COVID-19.

The concern is what will happen after summer. That will depend on how many people receive the vaccine. It will need to be 70% to 80% to prevent another surge.

What factors does your model consider to get that result?

We have data on mask wearing, mobility — how much people are moving around — the amount of testing happening in a region, density and seasonality. We know from tracking the virus over the summer in the Southern Hemisphere that it acts similar to pneumonia with numbers going up when the weather is cold.

We expect that states will reimpose mandates if cases are increasing too much and too fast, and we factor that in as well.

We also look at vaccines.

Why haven’t California’s many mandates moved the needle this winter?

When a member of the public sees a mandate being imposed and sees only a small reduction in cases, they may say it’s not having much impact.

But someone who does epidemiology sees it totally differently. We are not comparing it to what came before. We compare it to what would have happened if we didn’t do it.

The main message is that mandates work, but people have to adhere to them. We have to change our behavior.

Usually when case numbers go up, we also see compliance with mandates goes up too. And we are seeing that now in California.

When will the COVID-19 vaccines make a difference?

Vaccinations won’t help us this month or the next. We don’t have enough vaccine, and we won’t have enough until June or July. However, we might see deaths across the U.S. decline earlier than that if we vaccinate the elderly first.

What numbers should we watch to see if California is turning things around?

Checking the number of hospitalizations is the best. Not everyone who is infected gets tested, but people who need to be hospitalized will end up at a hospital.

The number of hospitalizations is also an indicator that will inform policy-making because they don’t want ICUs to fill all the way up. You need the ICU for other diseases besides COVID as well, so it is very important to be very careful and monitor hospitalizations.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... -watch-for

[Typical Lax Dad]

IHME predictions:

What about across the United States as a whole?

Because of seasonality, we expect numbers will keep increasing this winter, but we also expect that states will reimpose mandates because the cases are increasing too much and too fast. The peak will happen sometime toward the end of January and start coming down after that. Across the United States, we expect the cumulative number of deaths to be 567,200 by April 1.

The vaccine and warm weather seasonality will help us. So sometime in April or May it will be much better, and all our projections for the summer look like not much COVID-19.

The concern is what will happen after summer. That will depend on how many people receive the vaccine. It will need to be 70% to 80% to prevent another surge.

What factors does your model consider to get that result?

We have data on mask wearing, mobility — how much people are moving around — the amount of testing happening in a region, density and seasonality. We know from tracking the virus over the summer in the Southern Hemisphere that it acts similar to pneumonia with numbers going up when the weather is cold.

We expect that states will reimpose mandates if cases are increasing too much and too fast, and we factor that in as well.

We also look at vaccines.

Why haven’t California’s many mandates moved the needle this winter?

When a member of the public sees a mandate being imposed and sees only a small reduction in cases, they may say it’s not having much impact.

But someone who does epidemiology sees it totally differently. We are not comparing it to what came before. We compare it to what would have happened if we didn’t do it.

The main message is that mandates work, but people have to adhere to them. We have to change our behavior.

Usually when case numbers go up, we also see compliance with mandates goes up too. And we are seeing that now in California.

When will the COVID-19 vaccines make a difference?

Vaccinations won’t help us this month or the next. We don’t have enough vaccine, and we won’t have enough until June or July. However, we might see deaths across the U.S. decline earlier than that if we vaccinate the elderly first.

What numbers should we watch to see if California is turning things around?

Checking the number of hospitalizations is the best. Not everyone who is infected gets tested, but people who need to be hospitalized will end up at a hospital.

The number of hospitalizations is also an indicator that will inform policy-making because they don’t want ICUs to fill all the way up. You need the ICU for other diseases besides COVID as well, so it is very important to be very careful and monitor hospitalizations.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... -watch-for

I have been saying for 2 months that the real proof of how much progress we have made won’t be until next fall. The Summer could be a mirage much like last Summer. If we don’t get a big bounce next fall, we will be on the road to recovery.

[wgdsr]

I have been saying for 2 months that the real proof of how much progress we have made won’t be until next fall. The Summer could be a mirage much like last Summer. If we don’t get a big bounce next fall, we will be on the road to recovery.

this is interesting. are you short vaccine effectiveness (long term as it hasn't been determined)? immunity for infection? vaccine acceptance? long mutation?