2024 Bracketology

[Finster]

Tell me again why UVA is such an automatic? Yea, I get the RPI, but don’t you at least have to win some of those games, and not just play them? Wins against umd (do we know what they are , btw, from a quality perspective?), Harvard (didn’t make the Ivy tourney) and Mich (who before the Big10 tourney, hadn’t beaten anyone). 1-4 in ACC and have lost 4 straight.

Imagine what their RPI would be if they actually beat someone in the Top 10, and not just played them….

I don't see the case for UVA either. If anything, they're one of the few teams I feel has shown that they can't beat the top teams in the country.

Unfortunately for the bubble teams, they're also in a cushy position in the ACC where they can just lean on the RPI formula and fail upwards to a bid (and probably a seed).

Disregarding RPI and SOS, my eye test says Virginia belongs but Maryland doesn’t. Unless McNaney plays on his head, Maryland will just lose their first round game anyway; I’d give that slot to a team that plays to win.

Two other issues: ND has nothing to play for today while Duke might catapult to #2, amazingly. Yet ND plays with pride, so if you’re a Blue Devil, I wouldn’t count your chickens just yet.

Finally, how is Breschi on the committee? You think he’ll easily roll over for a deserving team over Tillman’s team, or Tiffany’s? These guys are friends. I’d rather nominate four Fanlax posters to be the committee. Not even kidding. JoeWillie, wgdsr, Wheels, Keno, and Blue Angel (and a few more in forgetting) seem to know strengths and weaknesses here better than Inside Lacrosse or any other pollster.

I agree 100%. There is something distasteful about UVa getting in losing 4 straight, but you can understand them getting in. Mostly because the individual talent is so good. They are a threat. Maryland is not a threat

If ever there were a year to open up the tournament to others, this is that year. And if left to me, I’d be darn certain to throw a curveball at ND for their first game, giving them an unknown like St Joseph’s.

Also I would put you on the committee too, Coda; I have no idea who you root for.

I am a Michigan fan..

Roger that.

Duke’s performance today makes me want to limit the ACC representation in the NCAA tournament. The same goes for Maryland and the B1G.

Reward hungry scrappy teams.

The issue with the ACC is ceiling and floors. Duke has been up and done all year, but when they play their best, there maybe only 1 team in the country that can match that. Virginia is similar. As much as I want to leave UVa out for losing 4 straight, I still know they are one of a few teams that can win it all. You can say that for all 4 of the ACC teams. I don’t think you say that for the Big 10 or any other conference

So eye test is now what % of the criteria?

My eye test now says don’t invite Duke either.

Obviously I’m kidding (sort of), but underperformance drives me crazy in life. The teams which I feel are underperforming to the point I wish they’d be penalized for the tournament are Duke and Maryland. I see zero hunger.

I’m watching the Princeton Penn game. I’d give Penn credit for clawing their way back. That’s hunger. Duke is just lying down today. Embarrassing.

How about cuse then? Duke just blew their doors off 2 nights ago. If dukes out, then cuse has to go too

My issue with Duke has nothing to do with their wins or losses; it’s about their heart. Naso doesn’t start today, and it feels like the team today just laid down after seeing the first few ND goals.

Duke has arguably the best attack in the country, a great defender in Bower, talent all over the field. But when they go down a few, it’s like there is a collective resignation to losing. I can’t stand it. And I’m not a Duke supporter. I can only imagine how the coaches and fans feel.

Maybe they’re saving it up for the tournament? Either that or they have questionable team character.

[BigTurn]

Tell me again why UVA is such an automatic? Yea, I get the RPI, but don’t you at least have to win some of those games, and not just play them? Wins against umd (do we know what they are , btw, from a quality perspective?), Harvard (didn’t make the Ivy tourney) and Mich (who before the Big10 tourney, hadn’t beaten anyone). 1-4 in ACC and have lost 4 straight.

Imagine what their RPI would be if they actually beat someone in the Top 10, and not just played them….

I don't see the case for UVA either. If anything, they're one of the few teams I feel has shown that they can't beat the top teams in the country.

Unfortunately for the bubble teams, they're also in a cushy position in the ACC where they can just lean on the RPI formula and fail upwards to a bid (and probably a seed).

Disregarding RPI and SOS, my eye test says Virginia belongs but Maryland doesn’t. Unless McNaney plays on his head, Maryland will just lose their first round game anyway; I’d give that slot to a team that plays to win.

Two other issues: ND has nothing to play for today while Duke might catapult to #2, amazingly. Yet ND plays with pride, so if you’re a Blue Devil, I wouldn’t count your chickens just yet.

Finally, how is Breschi on the committee? You think he’ll easily roll over for a deserving team over Tillman’s team, or Tiffany’s? These guys are friends. I’d rather nominate four Fanlax posters to be the committee. Not even kidding. JoeWillie, wgdsr, Wheels, Keno, and Blue Angel (and a few more in forgetting) seem to know strengths and weaknesses here better than Inside Lacrosse or any other pollster.

I agree 100%. There is something distasteful about UVa getting in losing 4 straight, but you can understand them getting in. Mostly because the individual talent is so good. They are a threat. Maryland is not a threat

If ever there were a year to open up the tournament to others, this is that year. And if left to me, I’d be darn certain to throw a curveball at ND for their first game, giving them an unknown like St Joseph’s.

Also I would put you on the committee too, Coda; I have no idea who you root for.

I am a Michigan fan..

Roger that.

Duke’s performance today makes me want to limit the ACC representation in the NCAA tournament. The same goes for Maryland and the B1G.

Reward hungry scrappy teams.

The issue with the ACC is ceiling and floors. Duke has been up and done all year, but when they play their best, there maybe only 1 team in the country that can match that. Virginia is similar. As much as I want to leave UVa out for losing 4 straight, I still know they are one of a few teams that can win it all. You can say that for all 4 of the ACC teams. I don’t think you say that for the Big 10 or any other conference

So eye test is now what % of the criteria?

My eye test now says don’t invite Duke either.

Obviously I’m kidding (sort of), but underperformance drives me crazy in life. The teams which I feel are underperforming to the point I wish they’d be penalized for the tournament are Duke and Maryland. I see zero hunger.

I’m watching the Princeton Penn game. I’d give Penn credit for clawing their way back. That’s hunger. Duke is just lying down today. Embarrassing.

How about cuse then? Duke just blew their doors off 2 nights ago. If dukes out, then cuse has to go too

My issue with Duke has nothing to do with their wins or losses; it’s about their heart. Naso doesn’t start today, and it feels like the team today just laid down after seeing the first few ND goals.

Duke has arguably the best attack in the country, a great defender in Bower, talent all over the field. But when they go down a few, it’s like there is a collective resignation to losing. I can’t stand it. And I’m not a Duke supporter. I can only imagine how the coaches and fans feel.

Maybe they’re saving it up for the tournament? Either that or they have questionable team character.

Well you aren’t alone questioning that.. Dino told the sideline reporter he questioned their character at halftime as well.

[keno in reno]

Imagine having Sowers and O'Neill on the same team, and still not being competitive when it mattered

[10stone5]

Penn State squeeks in, the last in.

Tanking last night's game was a bad idea.

[Cornell95]

Ivy is meh this year. So are most other conferences.

ACC with a strong representation in the top10 RPI this year of course.
The impact of the COVID eligibility transfers cannot be ignored however.

Is Syracuse a top 5 or even top10 team without English(Princeton)/Stevens(Princeton)/Mule(Lehigh)/Kohn(Tufts)
Does JHU make the jump to top 5 without Chase Irelan in goal?
Without a COVID year, does Zawada play his last game at Michigan instead of starting at Duke in 2024?

All of these programs have deep recruiting pipelines, maybe their Freshmen step right in and result is the same, maybe not

ACC appears to be pulling in a fair amount of Ivy league players in 2025 that must go elsewhere for their final year of eligibility. In 2026 I expect a return to the more traditional roster development of the past though.

[random observer]

Tell me again why UVA is such an automatic? Yea, I get the RPI, but don’t you at least have to win some of those games, and not just play them? Wins against umd (do we know what they are , btw, from a quality perspective?), Harvard (didn’t make the Ivy tourney) and Mich (who before the Big10 tourney, hadn’t beaten anyone). 1-4 in ACC and have lost 4 straight.

Imagine what their RPI would be if they actually beat someone in the Top 10, and not just played them….

I don't see the case for UVA either. If anything, they're one of the few teams I feel has shown that they can't beat the top teams in the country.

Unfortunately for the bubble teams, they're also in a cushy position in the ACC where they can just lean on the RPI formula and fail upwards to a bid (and probably a seed).

Disregarding RPI and SOS, my eye test says Virginia belongs but Maryland doesn’t. Unless McNaney plays on his head, Maryland will just lose their first round game anyway; I’d give that slot to a team that plays to win.

Two other issues: ND has nothing to play for today while Duke might catapult to #2, amazingly. Yet ND plays with pride, so if you’re a Blue Devil, I wouldn’t count your chickens just yet.

Finally, how is Breschi on the committee? You think he’ll easily roll over for a deserving team over Tillman’s team, or Tiffany’s? These guys are friends. I’d rather nominate four Fanlax posters to be the committee. Not even kidding. JoeWillie, wgdsr, Wheels, Keno, and Blue Angel (and a few more in forgetting) seem to know strengths and weaknesses here better than Inside Lacrosse or any other pollster.

I agree 100%. There is something distasteful about UVa getting in losing 4 straight, but you can understand them getting in. Mostly because the individual talent is so good. They are a threat. Maryland is not a threat

You're right, Maryland is not a threat. But they earned an invite over any Ivy hopeful, who are not threats either. I mean, you can't be a threat if you lost to UNC, Brown, went 0-4 against 6-10 teams, or "limped in" by losing to Princeton twice in a row, who lost to non-threatening Maryland in one of Maryland's easier wins.

You can spin against any of the bubble teams, that's why the data matters. And UNC wasn't a threat in 2016 either.

If we did the threat or eye test then Notre Dame would be playing for a 3peat in national championships this year

I get your point, but no they wouldn't. 2022 Maryland was one of the best teams in the history of the sport, and idk why people act like ND would've been a serious threat to them. Sure, they played them to a two goal margin early in the season -- but that was at home during by far Maryland's most vulnerable stretch before they went supernova (that and their previous two games against Princeton and a terrible Cuse team where their most competitive games until the championship against Cornell).

They played MD to 2 without Taylor. Offense completely transformed when he came back. I’m not saying they beat MD, but to act like they didn’t have a chance is a joke.

Their final game was a two goal win at home over a flawed Duke team that was nowhere near Maryland's level. What transformed their offense as much as anything was that they played against worse defenses down the stretch. I'm sorry but I wasn't remotely impressed with ND that year -- they feasted on bad Cuse and UNC teams, eked out two wins over a so-so Duke team, and lost to everyone else they played with a pulse. And you can't even say that many of the losses were impressive performances, which is why people overindex on the Maryland loss when they defend the Irish -- there's almost nothing else on their 12 game schedule to really point to that screams tournament contender at all, so they have to funnel the eye test towards that one performance. They got rinsed at home by Georgetown, and were beaten by 3-4 goals by average UVA and OSU teams. None of their losses were the type of 50/50 game that were lost by the flip of a coin.

They don't belong in the same sentence as this year's ND squad, let alone '22 Maryland -- which was at minimum a top 5 team in the history of the sport. FWIW I think they should've gotten the final at-large spot over Harvard, but they were no more likely to beat Maryland than any of the other teams with far more deserving resumes who got in ahead of them.

I’m not arguing their tournament resume. They didn’t take care of business and it cost them, so be it. I agree that team was clearly are not as talented as this ND’s squad, or even last years. I just think they could’ve gave MD a game, but I’m not gonna argue over it.

Fair enough.

[random observer]

Tell me again why UVA is such an automatic? Yea, I get the RPI, but don’t you at least have to win some of those games, and not just play them? Wins against umd (do we know what they are , btw, from a quality perspective?), Harvard (didn’t make the Ivy tourney) and Mich (who before the Big10 tourney, hadn’t beaten anyone). 1-4 in ACC and have lost 4 straight.

Imagine what their RPI would be if they actually beat someone in the Top 10, and not just played them….

I don't see the case for UVA either. If anything, they're one of the few teams I feel has shown that they can't beat the top teams in the country.

Unfortunately for the bubble teams, they're also in a cushy position in the ACC where they can just lean on the RPI formula and fail upwards to a bid (and probably a seed).

Disregarding RPI and SOS, my eye test says Virginia belongs but Maryland doesn’t. Unless McNaney plays on his head, Maryland will just lose their first round game anyway; I’d give that slot to a team that plays to win.

Two other issues: ND has nothing to play for today while Duke might catapult to #2, amazingly. Yet ND plays with pride, so if you’re a Blue Devil, I wouldn’t count your chickens just yet.

Finally, how is Breschi on the committee? You think he’ll easily roll over for a deserving team over Tillman’s team, or Tiffany’s? These guys are friends. I’d rather nominate four Fanlax posters to be the committee. Not even kidding. JoeWillie, wgdsr, Wheels, Keno, and Blue Angel (and a few more in forgetting) seem to know strengths and weaknesses here better than Inside Lacrosse or any other pollster.

I agree 100%. There is something distasteful about UVa getting in losing 4 straight, but you can understand them getting in. Mostly because the individual talent is so good. They are a threat. Maryland is not a threat

You're right, Maryland is not a threat. But they earned an invite over any Ivy hopeful, who are not threats either. I mean, you can't be a threat if you lost to UNC, Brown, went 0-4 against 6-10 teams, or "limped in" by losing to Princeton twice in a row, who lost to non-threatening Maryland in one of Maryland's easier wins.

You can spin against any of the bubble teams, that's why the data matters. And UNC wasn't a threat in 2016 either.

If we did the threat or eye test then Notre Dame would be playing for a 3peat in national championships this year

I get your point, but no they wouldn't. 2022 Maryland was one of the best teams in the history of the sport, and idk why people act like ND would've been a serious threat to them. Sure, they played them to a two goal margin early in the season -- but that was at home during by far Maryland's most vulnerable stretch before they went supernova (that and their previous two games against Princeton and a terrible Cuse team where their most competitive games until the championship against Cornell).

They played MD to 2 without Taylor. Offense completely transformed when he came back. I’m not saying they beat MD, but to act like they didn’t have a chance is a joke.

Their final game was a two goal win at home over a flawed Duke team that was nowhere near Maryland's level. What transformed their offense as much as anything was that they played against worse defenses down the stretch. I'm sorry but I wasn't remotely impressed with ND that year -- they feasted on bad Cuse and UNC teams, eked out two wins over a so-so Duke team, and lost to everyone else they played with a pulse. And you can't even say that many of the losses were impressive performances, which is why people overindex on the Maryland loss when they defend the Irish -- there's almost nothing else on their 12 game schedule to really point to that screams tournament contender at all, so they have to funnel the eye test towards that one performance. They got rinsed at home by Georgetown, and were beaten by 3-4 goals by average UVA and OSU teams. None of their losses were the type of 50/50 game that were lost by the flip of a coin.

They don't belong in the same sentence as this year's ND squad, let alone '22 Maryland -- which was at minimum a top 5 team in the history of the sport. FWIW I think they should've gotten the final at-large spot over Harvard, but they were no more likely to beat Maryland than any of the other teams with far more deserving resumes who got in ahead of them.

I’m not arguing their tournament resume. They didn’t take care of business and it cost them, so be it. I agree that team was clearly are not as talented as this ND’s squad, or even last years. I just think they could’ve gave MD a game, but I’m not gonna argue over it.

Yeah, fair enough.

[Laxbuck]

St. Joe’s deserves far better than a matchup v #1 ND. If they truly seeded all 17 teams they would be 9-11 range

So? Win or go home. No participation trophies.

That’s such a weak take

[Big Dog]

St. Joe’s deserves far better than a matchup v #1 ND. If they truly seeded all 17 teams they would be 9-11 range

So? Win or go home. No participation trophies.

That’s such a weak take

St. J has an RPI of 15, right behind Michigan at 14. St. J has a SOS of 30. No way they are they seeded ~10.

[masondixonlax]

Ivy is meh this year. So are most other conferences.

ACC with a strong representation in the top10 RPI this year of course.
The impact of the COVID eligibility transfers cannot be ignored however.

Is Syracuse a top 5 or even top10 team without English(Princeton)/Stevens(Princeton)/Mule(Lehigh)/Kohn(Tufts)
Does JHU make the jump to top 5 without Chase Irelan in goal?
Without a COVID year, does Zawada play his last game at Michigan instead of starting at Duke in 2024?

All of these programs have deep recruiting pipelines, maybe their Freshmen step right in and result is the same, maybe not

ACC appears to be pulling in a fair amount of Ivy league players in 2025 that must go elsewhere for their final year of eligibility. In 2026 I expect a return to the more traditional roster development of the past though.

We get it, without Ivy league, lacrosse ceases to exist.

[rolldodge]

My picks for the bracket:

1. Notre Dame vs Sacred Heart / Albany
2. Syracuse vs Utah
3. Duke vs Lehigh
4. Denver vs Michigan
5. Hopkins vs St Joes
6. Maryland vs Towson
7. Virginia vs Princeton
8. Georgetown vs Penn State

[Finster]

My picks for the bracket:

1. Notre Dame vs Sacred Heart / Albany
2. Syracuse vs Utah
3. Duke vs Lehigh
4. Denver vs Michigan
5. Hopkins vs St Joes
6. Maryland vs Towson
7. Virginia vs Princeton
8. Georgetown vs Penn State

That’s probably good. I’m not sure the committee will spot Cuse at 2 though.

[rolldodge]

My picks for the bracket:

1. Notre Dame vs Sacred Heart / Albany
2. Syracuse vs Utah
3. Duke vs Lehigh
4. Denver vs Michigan
5. Hopkins vs St Joes
6. Maryland vs Towson
7. Virginia vs Princeton
8. Georgetown vs Penn State

That’s probably good. I’m not sure the committee will spot Cuse at 2 though.

I think it would be out-of-the-box a little but, looking at the numbers, there is a case for it if they prioritize the "big wins". Cuse at 3-2 vs top 5 vs Duke at 2-3.

[Cornell95]

Ivy is meh this year. So are most other conferences.

ACC with a strong representation in the top10 RPI this year of course.
The impact of the COVID eligibility transfers cannot be ignored however.

Is Syracuse a top 5 or even top10 team without English(Princeton)/Stevens(Princeton)/Mule(Lehigh)/Kohn(Tufts)
Does JHU make the jump to top 5 without Chase Irelan in goal?
Without a COVID year, does Zawada play his last game at Michigan instead of starting at Duke in 2024?

All of these programs have deep recruiting pipelines, maybe their Freshmen step right in and result is the same, maybe not

ACC appears to be pulling in a fair amount of Ivy league players in 2025 that must go elsewhere for their final year of eligibility. In 2026 I expect a return to the more traditional roster development of the past though.

We get it, without Ivy league, lacrosse ceases to exist.

Cant believe I wasted all that time writing a couple paragraphs and looking up the transfer's schools
The correct response to Norcalhop should have been just 'We get it, if you arent the ACC why bother even playing the game'
Appreciate your economy of words and excellent reading comprehension, I will try to do better next time.

[FMUBart]

Given NCAA travel restrictions, I think Albany goes to Cuse; Utah to Denver and ND hosts St Joes, agree with the other matchups…

[JeremyCuse]

Given NCAA travel restrictions, I think Albany goes to Cuse; Utah to Denver and ND hosts St Joes, agree with the other matchups…

Albany going to Cuse would be a dream for the committee and travle costs but it's impossible to pull off this year. Albany had a nice turnaround but their overall #s are not good and the America East was pretty bad overall. Hard to see how their not in the play in game.

[Lax Mouse]

Given NCAA travel restrictions, I think Albany goes to Cuse; Utah to Denver and ND hosts St Joes, agree with the other matchups…

Albany and Sacred Heart will be in the play in game because they have the lowest RPI. Winner will head to ND.

Utah almost certainly going to the 2nd seed, likely Duke, again because of their lower RPI. They'd be a flight to anywhere, including Denver. Denver won't be seeded high enough to justify Utah going there.

Michigan, also a flight to anywhere, is likely off to Denver.

[veryoldgoose]

Is there any case for Penn or someone else to sneak in over Maryland? I don't think its likely, but maybe given how poorly Maryland has looked.

I also don't think Albany will be going to Cuse, but I think its a non-zero possibility. It eliminates travel cost, which is the #1 of NCAA seeding, lest we all forget every year.

[coda]

Is there any case for Penn or someone else to sneak in over Maryland? I don't think its likely, but maybe given how poorly Maryland has looked.

I also don't think Albany will be going to Cuse, but I think its a non-zero possibility. It eliminates travel cost, which is the #1 of NCAA seeding, lest we all forget every year.

It would have to be Penn State. They have the lowest RPI among Big 10 at-large teams and are coming of a complete disaster

[veryoldgoose]

Is there any case for Penn or someone else to sneak in over Maryland? I don't think its likely, but maybe given how poorly Maryland has looked.

I also don't think Albany will be going to Cuse, but I think its a non-zero possibility. It eliminates travel cost, which is the #1 of NCAA seeding, lest we all forget every year.

It would have to be Penn State. They have the lowest RPI among Big 10 at-large teams and are coming of a complete disaster

If you are saying Penn State on the bubble versus Maryland, I think both are in anyway. If you are saying Penn compared to Penn State, that is probably right, but just curious if there is any scenario where Maryland is the odd team out.

Some predictions accounting for the #1 hidden NCAA rule regarding costs (again, ignoring actual criteria to account for $$$):

1. Play in will be Sacred Heart versus St Joes in order to have Albany play Cuse in round 1. It also saves travel for the play in.

2. Utah is definitely going to Denver. It is still a flight, but just barely. If not, it will be MIchigan/Denver, but I think Utah is more likely.