Holy Cross ‘23

[HCDC]

Reppert’s performance/record:

Some chatter on the PL thread and Navy thread re Reppert, so I thought I’d dig into some of the numbers.

So far this season HC is averaging 11 fewer offensive possessions than its opponents. (Offensive possessions calculated with FO wins + successful clears + opponents failed clears. It represents the number of times a team has the ball in its offensive end). Similar to this year, HC had a possession disadvantage close to 10 in the ‘22 season.

For comparison, HC was plus 6 in offensive possession per game under Burke in 2019 and plus 5 per game in 2020. HC was facing off at .641 and .633 respectively those years … Dan O’Connell. Burke went 7-7 in 2019 and 4-3 in 2020 (Covid shortened) with that FO% and possession advantage. 2019 and 2020 are a decent benchmark bec HC had some good wins those years and finished .500 or better.

HC is facing off at .406 this year.

Comparing Burke and Reppert: Burke’s teams were operating with a roughly 9 possession advantage per game when compared to Reppert’s teams (adjusted for same number of total possessions (73) per game) … largely (but not entirely) due to face offs.

A decent D1 offense seems to score on roughly 1/3 of its offensive possessions. So with 9 fewer possessions (comparing Reppert years to Burke years), you’d expect 3 fewer goals/gm from your offense and 3 more allowed by your defense, a 6 goal swing.

Just looking at the possession differential this season (instead of comparing the Burke teams to the Reppert teams), it represents a 3-4 goal swing against HC.

Possessions are a significant indicator for game outcomes. Not determinative, but hugely significant, especially as the margin increases. Not very many teams win when they have a double digit possession disadvantage.

Add to that the additional, very significant statistic plaguing Reppert’s teams: HC is turning over the ball almost 23 times per game this year, which is 2nd worst in D1 and just shy of 7 times per game more than its opponents.

HC is turning the ball over 54% of the time it gets it in its offensive end. Opponents, just 34%.

So not only is HC getting 11 fewer possessions per game, but it squanders an incredibly large number of those possessions by turning the ball over.

So, is Reppert responsible for the team’s possession troubles and TO problems? Or is it a personnel issue?

Watching most of HC’s games this season makes me think these problems stem more from personnel than coaching. With respect to possessions: FOs and clearing are determined primarily by athleticism and speed/quickness. Neither is a part of the game that is driven primarily by coaching. Coaching is not irrelevant, but there aren’t that many different clearing strategies that I’m aware of; it’s mostly execution.

HC’s turnovers are almost all guys throwing the ball over each other’s heads or at each other’s feet, frequently when working the ball around the perimeter, not under intense defensive pressure. Personnel or coaching?

How does Reppert’s offense compare when it does have the ball (offensive efficiency = goals scored per possession).

HC’s avg offensive efficiency during Reppert era is .253 … which is not good, but that number is heavily impacted by all the turnovers (see above). Avg. during the Morrissey/Lattimore/Burke years was .297 … when HC actually averaged fewer TOs (slightly) compared to its opponents. Best yr for offensive efficiency in that stretch was .354 under Lattimore. Worst yr was .216 under Lattimore. Avg under Burke’s was .272 (with approx 5 fewer offensive TOs/gm).

How does Reppert’s defense stack up … defensive efficiency is goals allowed by HC per opponent’s offensive possession?

Defensive efficiency from 2012-2020 (Morrissey, Lattimore, Burke years) was .374 average. Best was .310 in 2017 - Lattimore. Worst was .467 in 2014 - Morrissey. Defense under Burke was avg .343. Average under Reppert is .377. Best under Reppert: .330 in 2021. Worst was .423 in 2022. This year it is .377. .377 is definitely not where a defense wants to be, but with the possession imbalance, they are having to play a ton of D each game. In terms of coaching, this seems like the area that could improve the most. There’s a new defensive coordinator this year who was brought on board this winter (after Lynch left for head job at Nichols at the end of Nov). He basically had a month of practice with the team before the first game this season.

This year’s freshman class is Reppert’s first recruiting class on campus. The rest of the team was recruited during years when HC had an interim coach, a coach on suspended status, or a coach that was on his way out … probably not ideal conditions for recruiting.

Given the above, seems prudent to give JL time to bring in more talent before reaching any conclusions re whether he is/is not the guy who can improve the program.

[gymman1031]

Reppert’s performance/record:

Some chatter on the PL thread and Navy thread re Reppert, so I thought I’d dig into some of the numbers.

So far this season HC is averaging 11 fewer offensive possessions than its opponents. (Offensive possessions calculated with FO wins + successful clears + opponents failed clears. It represents the number of times a team has the ball in its offensive end). Similar to this year, HC had a possession disadvantage close to 10 in the ‘22 season.

For comparison, HC was plus 6 in offensive possession per game under Burke in 2019 and plus 5 per game in 2020. HC was facing off at .641 and .633 respectively those years … Dan O’Connell. Burke went 7-7 in 2019 and 4-3 in 2020 (Covid shortened) with that FO% and possession advantage. 2019 and 2020 are a decent benchmark bec HC had some good wins those years and finished .500 or better.

HC is facing off at .406 this year.

Comparing Burke and Reppert: Burke’s teams were operating with a roughly 9 possession advantage per game when compared to Reppert’s teams (adjusted for same number of total possessions (73) per game) … largely (but not entirely) due to face offs.

A decent D1 offense seems to score on roughly 1/3 of its offensive possessions. So with 9 fewer possessions (comparing Reppert years to Burke years), you’d expect 3 fewer goals/gm from your offense and 3 more allowed by your defense, a 6 goal swing.

Just looking at the possession differential this season (instead of comparing the Burke teams to the Reppert teams), it represents a 3-4 goal swing against HC.

Possessions are a significant indicator for game outcomes. Not determinative, but hugely significant, especially as the margin increases. Not very many teams win when they have a double digit possession disadvantage.

Add to that the additional, very significant statistic plaguing Reppert’s teams: HC is turning over the ball almost 23 times per game this year, which is 2nd worst in D1 and just shy of 7 times per game more than its opponents.

HC is turning the ball over 54% of the time it gets it in its offensive end. Opponents, just 34%.

So not only is HC getting 11 fewer possessions per game, but it squanders an incredibly large number of those possessions by turning the ball over.

So, is Reppert responsible for the team’s possession troubles and TO problems? Or is it a personnel issue?

Watching most of HC’s games this season makes me think these problems stem more from personnel than coaching. With respect to possessions: FOs and clearing are determined primarily by athleticism and speed/quickness. Neither is a part of the game that is driven primarily by coaching. Coaching is not irrelevant, but there aren’t that many different clearing strategies that I’m aware of; it’s mostly execution.

HC’s turnovers are almost all guys throwing the ball over each other’s heads or at each other’s feet, frequently when working the ball around the perimeter, not under intense defensive pressure. Personnel or coaching?

How does Reppert’s offense compare when it does have the ball (offensive efficiency = goals scored per possession).

HC’s avg offensive efficiency during Reppert era is .253 … which is not good, but that number is heavily impacted by all the turnovers (see above). Avg. during the Morrissey/Lattimore/Burke years was .297 … when HC actually averaged fewer TOs (slightly) compared to its opponents. Best yr for offensive efficiency in that stretch was .354 under Lattimore. Worst yr was .216 under Lattimore. Avg under Burke’s was .272 (with approx 5 fewer offensive TOs/gm).

How does Reppert’s defense stack up … defensive efficiency is goals allowed by HC per opponent’s offensive possession?

Defensive efficiency from 2012-2020 (Morrissey, Lattimore, Burke years) was .374 average. Best was .310 in 2017 - Lattimore. Worst was .467 in 2014 - Morrissey. Defense under Burke was avg .343. Average under Reppert is .377. Best under Reppert: .330 in 2021. Worst was .423 in 2022. This year it is .377. .377 is definitely not where a defense wants to be, but with the possession imbalance, they are having to play a ton of D each game. In terms of coaching, this seems like the area that could improve the most. There’s a new defensive coordinator this year who was brought on board this winter (after Lynch left for head job at Nichols at the end of Nov). He basically had a month of practice with the team before the first game this season.

This year’s freshman class is Reppert’s first recruiting class on campus. The rest of the team was recruited during years when HC had an interim coach, a coach on suspended status, or a coach that was on his way out … probably not ideal conditions for recruiting.

Given the above, seems prudent to give JL time to bring in more talent before reaching any conclusions re whether he is/is not the guy who can improve the program.

Wow! What amazing research! Thanks so much! Yes, you are right about not a lot of the talent being JL's yet. And, recently, they have stepped it up a bit in recruiting. Adding Keith Euker as the OC appears to have been huge for recruiting. Especially from the powerful MIAA "A" Conference in Maryland. Both he and JL played in it. As I have said, Holy Cross, for awhile, looked competitive vs. Lehigh. I think Navy very well might have their hands full tomorrow.

[HCDC]

Thanks, but actually not a lot of research. Built a spreadsheet years back, so I just plug the box scores in and it spits all those calculations out. At this point, it’s about 3 min of data entry each week.

[gymman1031]

Thanks, but actually not a lot of research. Built a spreadsheet years back, so I just plug the box scores in and it spits all those calculations out. At this point, it’s about 3 min of data entry each week.

Gotcha! My pleasure! One example of how improvement, after a rough start, has been shown since more and more of the players have become the coach's is Coach Pat Myers at Lafayette. They didn't win any games in either the Covid-shortened 2020 season or in 2021. And, after improving to 4-11 last year, they look like they could possible increase than win total by multiple games this year. This is Coach Myers' fifth year in Easton, PA, so most of the talent is finally his.

[KnowingWizardofODAC]

I hate to break it to you guys. I know it has been a hard year but Navy is going to take a dump on the Holy Cross' carpet tomorrow. No need to reply, facts do not care about feelings.

[sinman6]

Hopefully Navy has the decency to clean it up before they leave.

[Henpecked]

I hate to break it to you guys. I know it has been a hard year but Navy is going to take a dump on the Holy Cross' carpet tomorrow. No need to reply, facts do not care about feelings.

Of course they will. Hasn’t Navy taken a dump in their pants every game the past 6 weeks?

[youthathletics]

I hate to break it to you guys. I know it has been a hard year but Navy is going to take a dump on the Holy Cross' carpet tomorrow. No need to reply, facts do not care about feelings.

Of course they will. Hasn’t Navy taken a dump in their pants every game the past 6 weeks?

well played.

[WandL99]

Reppert needs to go and do not @ me. Haven’t won a game all year and during the preseason I was hearing this team was going to make the tournament. With Airline being one of the most dynamic and elusive player in all of college lacrosse, navy is going to have a field day.

[gymman1031]

Reppert needs to go and do not @ me. Haven’t won a game all year and during the preseason I was hearing this team was going to make the tournament. With Airline being one of the most dynamic and elusive player in all of college lacrosse, navy is going to have a field day.

Well, let's just say that excuses for their struggles are becoming less and less valid. At the end of this season, we will have a better than ever idea on Reppert.

[youthathletics]

Reppert needs to go and do not @ me. Haven’t won a game all year and during the preseason I was hearing this team was going to make the tournament. With Airline being one of the most dynamic and elusive player in all of college lacrosse, navy is going to have a field day.

I’m sure it’s JL’s sole fault that players are feeding the crease, throwing bad passes, and don’t have a stud F/O to play make it take it.

And JL’s freshman recruit has dropped 3 on Navy in less than two qtrs.

#24 Navy is still out with injury,

[gymman1031]

Reppert needs to go and do not @ me. Haven’t won a game all year and during the preseason I was hearing this team was going to make the tournament. With Airline being one of the most dynamic and elusive player in all of college lacrosse, navy is going to have a field day.

I’m sure it’s JL’s sole fault that players are feeding the crease, throwing bad passes, and don’t have a stud F/O

And JP’s freshman recruit has dropped 3 on Navy in less than two qtrs.

#24 Navy is still out with injury,

Holy Cross is definitely showing life. 5-4 right now. Like I said, for awhile, they were very competitive with Lehigh. After seeing that, I had a feeling they may not be a pushover today.

[youthathletics]

Skip passes will go!!

[gymman1031]

Navy wins, 13-8. Closer than some of you predicted?

[gymman1031]

Still time for this current coaching staff. At least, next year, a lot more of the talent will be JL's. But if they don't win multiple games, I don't know.