All Things Russia & Ukraine

[old salt]

Putin is reaching the limit of what he can realistically hope to achieve & will soon be ready to negotiate.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/russia-cu ... referendum

[a fan]

It's not our fight. It's not a threat to us. We have no treaty obligation. It's not appeasement to seek a cease fire on terms much better than expected when the war started, which guarantees Ukraine's survival & prevents further slaughter, destruction & displacement. We are not bystanders.

Agree with all of this.

We are prolonging this war to serve our own interests

Disagree. We're doing the best we can without getting Putin to use nuclear weapons. Our hands are tied because of this.

If Putin didn't have nukes? We'd roll in and crush the Russian forces. Or lob missiles into Moscow until they surrendered. Or any number of alternatives like that.

...& if pigs had wings they would fly. Putin would not have invaded if he did not have a nuclear deterrent.

I understand. I'm simply saying that it's a bit unfair to say that we're prolonging this war to serve our own interests. We're prolonging this war because we don't really have any better options.

You think our massive amount of military & financial aid + tactical intell is not prolonging this war ?

Of course it's prolonging the war! I agree.

Normally, I'd say "stay the F out of this completely, it's not our problem". But I understand why a US Potus would want to help them.

It's a mess, with no right answers.

[old salt]

It's not our fight. It's not a threat to us. We have no treaty obligation. It's not appeasement to seek a cease fire on terms much better than expected when the war started, which guarantees Ukraine's survival & prevents further slaughter, destruction & displacement. We are not bystanders.

Agree with all of this.

We are prolonging this war to serve our own interests

Disagree. We're doing the best we can without getting Putin to use nuclear weapons. Our hands are tied because of this.

If Putin didn't have nukes? We'd roll in and crush the Russian forces. Or lob missiles into Moscow until they surrendered. Or any number of alternatives like that.

...& if pigs had wings they would fly. Putin would not have invaded if he did not have a nuclear deterrent.

I understand. I'm simply saying that it's a bit unfair to say that we're prolonging this war to serve our own interests. We're prolonging this war because we don't really have any better options.

You think our massive amount of military & financial aid + tactical intell is not prolonging this war ?

Of course it's prolonging the war! I agree.

Normally, I'd say "stay the F out of this completely, it's not our problem". But I understand why a US Potus would want to help them.

It's a mess, with no right answers.

We can use our leverage to push the Ukrainians to the negotiating table to negotiate a cease fire in place. The time for that is near.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/russia-cu ... referendum
"This is the first time, since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, that such a senior Russian official mentioned the idea of ending the ‘special operation,’" Koffler said.

The Kherson region would provide Russia its much-desired access to Southern Ukraine and establish a land bridge to Crimea. By securing this access, Russia would be able to control the mouth of the Dnieper River, which bisects Ukraine and provides access along the length of the country.

"Realizing he can’t win the war – as long as the U.S. and NATO are providing formidable weaponry and real-time intelligence to Ukraine – Putin is probably considering cutting his losses and ending the operation at this stage," Koffler said.

"If Putin absorbs Kherson into Russia or at least establishes another breakaway ‘People’s Republic’ — like Donetsk and Luhansk — he will have achieved the goals of this current phase of war," she added.

[MDlaxfan76]

Yup, give up...give Russia and Putin the win.
And sure, they can be trusted to be satisfied with that...

sheesh, the West's heavy weapons haven't even reached the front lines yet...if I'm not mistaken, Ukraine will then have artillery with greater reach than Russia's, meaning a serious tactical advantage. And with targeting capabilities far superior to Russia's. Meaning that each and every artillery site of the Russians can be destroyed once identified. Shoot and be killed.

How about we let the Ukrainians actually destroy the Russian military that chooses to stay and fight that battle?

Then "negotiate".

[old salt]

Yup, give up...give Russia and Putin the win.
And sure, they can be trusted to be satisfied with that...

sheesh, the West's heavy weapons haven't even reached the front lines yet...if I'm not mistaken, Ukraine will then have artillery with greater reach than Russia's, meaning a serious tactical advantage. And with targeting capabilities far superior to Russia's. Meaning that each and every artillery site of the Russians can be destroyed once identified. Shoot and be killed.

How about we let the Ukrainians actually destroy the Russian military that chooses to stay and fight that battle?

Then "negotiate".

Fine. That's a far cry from driving Russia out of the Donbas, the land bridge & Crimea, which would take years, if ever, & there'd be nothing left but rubble & a hellscape like Aleppo & N Syria.

[old salt]

The impact of prolonging the war, from PBS Newshour 2 days ago :

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/ukrai ... membership
And let's start with this question of food. Why is Ukraine's food so important to the world?

Nick Schifrin:

Ukraine is the largest producer of wheat in the world, Judy, and one of the largest producers of cooking oil.

But production has been halted mostly because of the violence. And, also, Ukraine can't export because Russia is blockading its ports. Meanwhile, Russia is the largest producer of fertilizer in the world. And it can't sell that because of export controls and sanctions.

And so all of that adds up to what the WFP called an explosion of global hunger and the Food Administration Organization says are the largest global food price index hikes that they have been measuring in more than 30 years.

And so the president today announced new efforts to increase U.S. production. In Ukraine, the emphasis is also on trying to increase production. We have seen some farmers out there trying to harvest in the spring. Today, we visited a steel plant a few hours from here, the largest in the country, that recently restarted its production.

But, again, the problem is those Russian warships off the coast of Odessa in the Black Sea. That means that none of those farmers, none of the steel plants can export to where they usually do via ship. And that means they're turning the trains overland into Europe. That is much more expensive and takes a lot longer than it usually does, Judy, which means these global food problems will continue.

Judy Woodruff:

So complicated.

And, Nick, last night, you were reporting on the progress that had been made in — by the Ukrainians in the city of Kharkiv in the east. But tell us about where you are now. In the south and the east, what does it look like there? And what is President Zelenskyy saying?

Nick Schifrin:

Yes.

So, in the east, Russians are making gains in the critical city of Izyum. They're pushing out a little bit to the west. And that's important for their supply lines down in the Donbass. Where we are, in the south, in and around the area of Kherson, the lines are pretty static, according to Ukrainian officials.

But the mood, Judy, at the top is positive. President Zelenskyy tonight in his nightly address said that: The war wouldn't end until Russia returns everything that is ours.

That suggests that Ukraine wants Russia not only to return what it has recently captured since the invasion two months ago, but, also, Ukraine wants to recapture territory that Russian-backed separatists have controlled in Eastern Ukraine since 2014.

Other Ukrainian officials are using the word victory. And I have talked to multiple Ukrainian officials in the last few days about, because they're getting new, heavier weapons, they want to launch counteroffensives, including in places like Mariupol.

So that, Judy, adds up to a grinding war of attrition that U.S. officials are beginning to talk about would last months, if not years.

Judy Woodruff:

Oh, if not years.

[MDlaxfan76]

Yup, give up...give Russia and Putin the win.
And sure, they can be trusted to be satisfied with that...

sheesh, the West's heavy weapons haven't even reached the front lines yet...if I'm not mistaken, Ukraine will then have artillery with greater reach than Russia's, meaning a serious tactical advantage. And with targeting capabilities far superior to Russia's. Meaning that each and every artillery site of the Russians can be destroyed once identified. Shoot and be killed.

How about we let the Ukrainians actually destroy the Russian military that chooses to stay and fight that battle?

Then "negotiate".

Fine. That's a far cry from driving Russia out of the Donbas, the land bridge & Crimea, which would take years, if ever, & there'd be nothing left but rubble & a hellscape like Aleppo & N Syria.

mmm, heck of hellscape if Russia has it's way anyway in that region. We've seen what things are like in any areas they've occupied and then left.

I dunno that you are even close to correct in your military assessment on this Salty. Of course, my own understanding may be all wet, but my understanding is that our precision capabilities, both intelligence and munitions, are vastly superior to the Russians, so, once deployed by the Ukrainians, they can take out the major guns that are firing upon them, take out the tanks with drones, etc, and generally beat the crap out of the Russian military. this would be different if the Russians controlled the airspace, but even without the full anti-air support that's coming, Ukraine has managed to keep the air contested. At some point, they may well dominate there as well.

Meanwhile, Russian capacity to make more 'smart' munitions grows ever less by the week.

And that's just the military tipping point aspects yet to happen, but are on their way.

Maybe more importantly is the difference in morale, the sense of purpose and righteousness of the soldiers, and their organizational structure on the ground. I think the Russian military ultimately cuts and runs once that military tipping point is achieved and beats the crap out of them.

I'd be very, very interested in the actual, full content of the discussion between Austin and Gerasimov today, beyond the 'readout' that Austin urged Gerasimov to implement an immediate cease fire. That doesn't take an hour of discussion.

Of course, I hope we don't learn of the content of the call until long after this is all over.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/13/politics ... index.html

[Typical Lax Dad]

The impact of prolonging the war, from PBS Newshour 2 days ago :

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/ukrai ... membership
And let's start with this question of food. Why is Ukraine's food so important to the world?

Nick Schifrin:

Ukraine is the largest producer of wheat in the world, Judy, and one of the largest producers of cooking oil.

But production has been halted mostly because of the violence. And, also, Ukraine can't export because Russia is blockading its ports. Meanwhile, Russia is the largest producer of fertilizer in the world. And it can't sell that because of export controls and sanctions.

And so all of that adds up to what the WFP called an explosion of global hunger and the Food Administration Organization says are the largest global food price index hikes that they have been measuring in more than 30 years.

And so the president today announced new efforts to increase U.S. production. In Ukraine, the emphasis is also on trying to increase production. We have seen some farmers out there trying to harvest in the spring. Today, we visited a steel plant a few hours from here, the largest in the country, that recently restarted its production.

But, again, the problem is those Russian warships off the coast of Odessa in the Black Sea. That means that none of those farmers, none of the steel plants can export to where they usually do via ship. And that means they're turning the trains overland into Europe. That is much more expensive and takes a lot longer than it usually does, Judy, which means these global food problems will continue.

Judy Woodruff:

So complicated.

And, Nick, last night, you were reporting on the progress that had been made in — by the Ukrainians in the city of Kharkiv in the east. But tell us about where you are now. In the south and the east, what does it look like there? And what is President Zelenskyy saying?

Nick Schifrin:

Yes.

So, in the east, Russians are making gains in the critical city of Izyum. They're pushing out a little bit to the west. And that's important for their supply lines down in the Donbass. Where we are, in the south, in and around the area of Kherson, the lines are pretty static, according to Ukrainian officials.

But the mood, Judy, at the top is positive. President Zelenskyy tonight in his nightly address said that: The war wouldn't end until Russia returns everything that is ours.

That suggests that Ukraine wants Russia not only to return what it has recently captured since the invasion two months ago, but, also, Ukraine wants to recapture territory that Russian-backed separatists have controlled in Eastern Ukraine since 2014.

Other Ukrainian officials are using the word victory. And I have talked to multiple Ukrainian officials in the last few days about, because they're getting new, heavier weapons, they want to launch counteroffensives, including in places like Mariupol.

So that, Judy, adds up to a grinding war of attrition that U.S. officials are beginning to talk about would last months, if not years.

Judy Woodruff:

Oh, if not years.

I have no idea why Ukrainians are resisting. Much easier to quit.

[old salt]

Yup, give up...give Russia and Putin the win.
And sure, they can be trusted to be satisfied with that...

sheesh, the West's heavy weapons haven't even reached the front lines yet...if I'm not mistaken, Ukraine will then have artillery with greater reach than Russia's, meaning a serious tactical advantage. And with targeting capabilities far superior to Russia's. Meaning that each and every artillery site of the Russians can be destroyed once identified. Shoot and be killed.

How about we let the Ukrainians actually destroy the Russian military that chooses to stay and fight that battle?

Then "negotiate".

Fine. That's a far cry from driving Russia out of the Donbas, the land bridge & Crimea, which would take years, if ever, & there'd be nothing left but rubble & a hellscape like Aleppo & N Syria.

mmm, heck of hellscape if Russia has it's way anyway in that region. We've seen what things are like in any areas they've occupied and then left.

I dunno that you are even close to correct in your military assessment on this Salty. Of course, my own understanding may be all wet, but my understanding is that our precision capabilities, both intelligence and munitions, are vastly superior to the Russians, so, once deployed by the Ukrainians, they can take out the major guns that are firing upon them, take out the tanks with drones, etc, and generally beat the crap out of the Russian military. this would be different if the Russians controlled the airspace, but even without the full anti-air support that's coming, Ukraine has managed to keep the air contested. At some point, they may well dominate there as well.

Meanwhile, Russian capacity to make more 'smart' munitions grows ever less by the week.

And that's just the military tipping point aspects yet to happen, but are on their way.

Maybe more importantly is the difference in morale, the sense of purpose and righteousness of the soldiers, and their organizational structure on the ground. I think the Russian military ultimately cuts and runs once that military tipping point is achieved and beats the crap out of them.

I'd be very, very interested in the actual, full content of the discussion between Austin and Gerasimov today, beyond the 'readout' that Austin urged Gerasimov to implement an immediate cease fire. That doesn't take an hour of discussion.

Of course, I hope we don't learn of the content of the call until long after this is all over.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/13/politics ... index.html

From a tactical perspective, we can provide what's necessary to extend the war (at this level) indefinitely, so long as the Ukrainians are willing to keep fighting & dying, US tax payers are willing to keep funding it, & we don't deplete our war reserves of critical weapons & material. So far, it's been a low tech land war burning through older weapons stocks.

Russia can also hold on & sustain the war at this level for a long time. They may eventually decide to escalate to de-escalate.

Ukraine won't dominate the airspace. We'd have a tough time doing it, even if we could get close enough to employ F-22's & F-35's.
The biggest surprise in this war is the effectiveness of Russian made integrated air defense systems, including the older Soviet stuff Ukraine is using so effectively when complemented by Manpads vs low altitude targets.

We can't ignore the impact the war is having on the global economy, energy & ag shortages, & the refugee pressure on our EU allies.
It exacerbates US inflation & is even more disruptive to our EU allies.
It doesn't matter that much to the rest of the world who exports that stuff, so long as it finds it's way to market via the Black Sea, which is blocked so long as the war continues without a cease fire.

[MDlaxfan76]

Yup, give up...give Russia and Putin the win.
And sure, they can be trusted to be satisfied with that...

sheesh, the West's heavy weapons haven't even reached the front lines yet...if I'm not mistaken, Ukraine will then have artillery with greater reach than Russia's, meaning a serious tactical advantage. And with targeting capabilities far superior to Russia's. Meaning that each and every artillery site of the Russians can be destroyed once identified. Shoot and be killed.

How about we let the Ukrainians actually destroy the Russian military that chooses to stay and fight that battle?

Then "negotiate".

Fine. That's a far cry from driving Russia out of the Donbas, the land bridge & Crimea, which would take years, if ever, & there'd be nothing left but rubble & a hellscape like Aleppo & N Syria.

mmm, heck of hellscape if Russia has it's way anyway in that region. We've seen what things are like in any areas they've occupied and then left.

I dunno that you are even close to correct in your military assessment on this Salty. Of course, my own understanding may be all wet, but my understanding is that our precision capabilities, both intelligence and munitions, are vastly superior to the Russians, so, once deployed by the Ukrainians, they can take out the major guns that are firing upon them, take out the tanks with drones, etc, and generally beat the crap out of the Russian military. this would be different if the Russians controlled the airspace, but even without the full anti-air support that's coming, Ukraine has managed to keep the air contested. At some point, they may well dominate there as well.

Meanwhile, Russian capacity to make more 'smart' munitions grows ever less by the week.

And that's just the military tipping point aspects yet to happen, but are on their way.

Maybe more importantly is the difference in morale, the sense of purpose and righteousness of the soldiers, and their organizational structure on the ground. I think the Russian military ultimately cuts and runs once that military tipping point is achieved and beats the crap out of them.

I'd be very, very interested in the actual, full content of the discussion between Austin and Gerasimov today, beyond the 'readout' that Austin urged Gerasimov to implement an immediate cease fire. That doesn't take an hour of discussion.

Of course, I hope we don't learn of the content of the call until long after this is all over.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/13/politics ... index.html

From a tactical perspective, we can provide what's necessary to extend the war (at this level) indefinitely, so long as the Ukrainians are willing to keep fighting & dying, US tax payers are willing to keep funding it, & we don't deplete our war reserves of critical weapons & material. So far, it's been a low tech land war burning through older weapons stocks.

Russia can also hold on & sustain the war at this level for a long time. They may eventually decide to escalate to de-escalate.

Ukraine won't dominate the airspace. We'd have a tough time doing it, even if we could get close enough to employ F-22's & F-35's.
The biggest surprise in this war is the effectiveness of Russian made integrated air defense systems, including the older Soviet stuff Ukraine is using so effectively when complemented by Manpads vs low altitude targets.

We can't ignore the impact the war is having on the global economy, energy & ag shortages, & the refugee pressure on our EU allies.
It exacerbates US inflation & is even more disruptive to our EU allies.
It doesn't matter that much to the rest of the world who exports that stuff, so long as it finds it's way to market via the Black Sea, which is blocked so long as the war continues without a cease fire.

I don't think anyone is arguing that there isn't a huge cost of extended warfare, to the world, not just the US and our EU allies.

Likewise, I don't think anyone would argue that IF Putin was willing to abandon his aggression, it wouldn't be terrific. If he even simply wanted to back off a bit, give up control of Mariupol and south of there.

But I don't think Putin is interested, remotely, in stopping even where they are now. And won't be until his military says they can't take it anymore. We're not dealing with a rational, much less honest, actor.

SO...my view is that we should be hoping that our superior systems and targeting capabilities, with greater range, once actually deployed, will indeed pound the crap out of the Russian military...and their morale does break... fully.

I'm not buying, yet, the narrative that this MUST be a long, multi-year war with the kind of pace of costs we're committing to these next 6 months. I think this thing can actually be won.

Sure hope I'm right, as I think the Ukrainian people would toss Zelensky on his ear if he didn't press forward at this point.

[old salt]

I have no idea why Ukrainians are resisting. Much easier to quit.

$53 billion US tax payer down payment.

[old salt]

I don't think anyone is arguing that there isn't a huge cost of extended warfare, to the world, not just the US and our EU allies.

Likewise, I don't think anyone would argue that IF Putin was willing to abandon his aggression, it wouldn't be terrific. If he even simply wanted to back off a bit, give up control of Mariupol and south of there.

But I don't think Putin is interested, remotely, in stopping even where they are now. And won't be until his military says they can't take it anymore. We're not dealing with a rational, much less honest, actor.

SO...my view is that we should be hoping that our superior systems and targeting capabilities, with greater range, once actually deployed, will indeed pound the crap out of the Russian military...and their morale does break... fully.

I'm not buying, yet, the narrative that this MUST be a long, multi-year war with the kind of pace of costs we're committing to these next 6 months. I think this thing can actually be won.

Sure hope I'm right, as I think the Ukrainian people would toss Zelensky on his ear if he didn't press forward at this point.

The Ukrainian people accepted Russian control of Crimea & LNR/DNR. They did not believe Russia would invade farther. They'll accept the loss of the land bridge too, so long as they can go home, rebuild & live in peace.

Putin failed to take back all of Ukraine, but the land bridge is critical to consolidating Crimea & guaranteeing unfettered Black Sea access.
Russia now holds from Kherson to Mariupol. Given the terrain & access, it will be a challenge to dislodge them from there. That's the territory necessary to guarantee overland access & fresh water supply to Crimea, control the Sea of Azov, & guarantee ports & shipping routes for Russian exports, without Ukrainian interference. imo -- Putin would accept that & spin it domestically as regaining Novorossiya. imho, he could then be deterred from pursing more, now that we are arming Ukraine & they have demonstrated their ability & willingness to fight to defend their nation.

[DocBarrister]

I don't think anyone is arguing that there isn't a huge cost of extended warfare, to the world, not just the US and our EU allies.

Likewise, I don't think anyone would argue that IF Putin was willing to abandon his aggression, it wouldn't be terrific. If he even simply wanted to back off a bit, give up control of Mariupol and south of there.

But I don't think Putin is interested, remotely, in stopping even where they are now. And won't be until his military says they can't take it anymore. We're not dealing with a rational, much less honest, actor.

SO...my view is that we should be hoping that our superior systems and targeting capabilities, with greater range, once actually deployed, will indeed pound the crap out of the Russian military...and their morale does break... fully.

I'm not buying, yet, the narrative that this MUST be a long, multi-year war with the kind of pace of costs we're committing to these next 6 months. I think this thing can actually be won.

Sure hope I'm right, as I think the Ukrainian people would toss Zelensky on his ear if he didn't press forward at this point.

The Ukrainian people accepted Russian control of Crimea & LNR/DNR. They did not believe Russia would invade farther. They'll accept the loss of the land bridge too, so long as they can go home, rebuild & live in peace.

Putin failed to take back all of Ukraine, but the land bridge is critical to consolidating Crimea & guaranteeing unfettered Black Sea access.
Russia now holds from Kherson to Mariupol. Given the terrain & access, it will be a challenge to dislodge them from there. That's the territory necessary to guarantee overland access & fresh water supply to Crimea, control the Sea of Azov, & guarantee ports & shipping routes for Russian exports, without Ukrainian interference. imo -- Putin would accept that & spin it domestically as regaining Novorossiya. imho, he could then be deterred from pursing more, now that we are arming Ukraine & they have demonstrated their ability & willingness to fight to defend their nation.

Why do you keep telling these lies?

Ukraine has NEVER accepted the invasion and occupation of Crimea. Ukraine has NEVER accepted the Russian invasion and occupation of LNR/DNR. In fact, there is no such thing as the LNR/DNR. Ukraine has been fighting a war in Eastern Ukraine for the past eight years.

Why would you state such blatant lies on this forum?

You are supporting the lies of a fascist Russian dictator. Completely disgraceful.

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

Yup, give up...give Russia and Putin the win.
And sure, they can be trusted to be satisfied with that...

sheesh, the West's heavy weapons haven't even reached the front lines yet...if I'm not mistaken, Ukraine will then have artillery with greater reach than Russia's, meaning a serious tactical advantage. And with targeting capabilities far superior to Russia's. Meaning that each and every artillery site of the Russians can be destroyed once identified. Shoot and be killed.

How about we let the Ukrainians actually destroy the Russian military that chooses to stay and fight that battle?

Then "negotiate".

Fine. That's a far cry from driving Russia out of the Donbas, the land bridge & Crimea, which would take years, if ever, & there'd be nothing left but rubble & a hellscape like Aleppo & N Syria.

mmm, heck of hellscape if Russia has it's way anyway in that region. We've seen what things are like in any areas they've occupied and then left.

I dunno that you are even close to correct in your military assessment on this Salty. Of course, my own understanding may be all wet, but my understanding is that our precision capabilities, both intelligence and munitions, are vastly superior to the Russians, so, once deployed by the Ukrainians, they can take out the major guns that are firing upon them, take out the tanks with drones, etc, and generally beat the crap out of the Russian military. this would be different if the Russians controlled the airspace, but even without the full anti-air support that's coming, Ukraine has managed to keep the air contested. At some point, they may well dominate there as well.

Meanwhile, Russian capacity to make more 'smart' munitions grows ever less by the week.

And that's just the military tipping point aspects yet to happen, but are on their way.

Maybe more importantly is the difference in morale, the sense of purpose and righteousness of the soldiers, and their organizational structure on the ground. I think the Russian military ultimately cuts and runs once that military tipping point is achieved and beats the crap out of them.

I'd be very, very interested in the actual, full content of the discussion between Austin and Gerasimov today, beyond the 'readout' that Austin urged Gerasimov to implement an immediate cease fire. That doesn't take an hour of discussion.

Of course, I hope we don't learn of the content of the call until long after this is all over.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/13/politics ... index.html

From a tactical perspective, we can provide what's necessary to extend the war (at this level) indefinitely, so long as the Ukrainians are willing to keep fighting & dying, US tax payers are willing to keep funding it, & we don't deplete our war reserves of critical weapons & material. So far, it's been a low tech land war burning through older weapons stocks.

Russia can also hold on & sustain the war at this level for a long time. They may eventually decide to escalate to de-escalate.

Ukraine won't dominate the airspace. We'd have a tough time doing it, even if we could get close enough to employ F-22's & F-35's.
The biggest surprise in this war is the effectiveness of Russian made integrated air defense systems, including the older Soviet stuff Ukraine is using so effectively when complemented by Manpads vs low altitude targets.

We can't ignore the impact the war is having on the global economy, energy & ag shortages, & the refugee pressure on our EU allies.
It exacerbates US inflation & is even more disruptive to our EU allies.
It doesn't matter that much to the rest of the world who exports that stuff, so long as it finds it's way to market via the Black Sea, which is blocked so long as the war continues without a cease fire.

You are mistaken if you think Russia can outlast Ukraine, NATO, various European and non-European allies, and the United States in this war. Russia is going to have a difficult time maintaining the combat readiness of their forces in Ukraine. In several months, Putin will face the choice of a full mobilization of Russia for the war or cutting his losses and going home. Either way, Russia is going to suffer a strategic loss in this conflict.

DocBarrister

[MDlaxfan76]

I don't think anyone is arguing that there isn't a huge cost of extended warfare, to the world, not just the US and our EU allies.

Likewise, I don't think anyone would argue that IF Putin was willing to abandon his aggression, it wouldn't be terrific. If he even simply wanted to back off a bit, give up control of Mariupol and south of there.

But I don't think Putin is interested, remotely, in stopping even where they are now. And won't be until his military says they can't take it anymore. We're not dealing with a rational, much less honest, actor.

SO...my view is that we should be hoping that our superior systems and targeting capabilities, with greater range, once actually deployed, will indeed pound the crap out of the Russian military...and their morale does break... fully.

I'm not buying, yet, the narrative that this MUST be a long, multi-year war with the kind of pace of costs we're committing to these next 6 months. I think this thing can actually be won.

Sure hope I'm right, as I think the Ukrainian people would toss Zelensky on his ear if he didn't press forward at this point.

The Ukrainian people accepted Russian control of Crimea & LNR/DNR. They did not believe Russia would invade farther. They'll accept the loss of the land bridge too, so long as they can go home, rebuild & live in peace.

Putin failed to take back all of Ukraine, but the land bridge is critical to consolidating Crimea & guaranteeing unfettered Black Sea access.
Russia now holds from Kherson to Mariupol. Given the terrain & access, it will be a challenge to dislodge them from there. That's the territory necessary to guarantee overland access & fresh water supply to Crimea, control the Sea of Azov, & guarantee ports & shipping routes for Russian exports, without Ukrainian interference. imo -- Putin would accept that & spin it domestically as regaining Novorossiya. imho, he could then be deterred from pursing more, now that we are arming Ukraine & they have demonstrated their ability & willingness to fight to defend their nation.

Why do you keep telling these lies?

Ukraine has NEVER accepted the invasion and occupation of Crimea. Ukraine has NEVER accepted the Russian invasion and occupation of LNR/DNR. In fact, there is no such thing as the LNR/DNR. Ukraine has been fighting a war in Eastern Ukraine for the past eight years.

Why would you state such blatant lies on this forum?

You are supporting the lies of a fascist Russian dictator. Completely disgraceful.

DocBarrister

Well, I don't think I'd have gone quite there if I'd responded first, as I do find Salty's perspectives interesting, but you are 100% correct that Ukraine and the Ukrainians have never "accepted Russian control of Crimea & LNR/DNR" nor did they not think Putin would invade further if they stopped fighting and withdrew from the conflict. It was the West that bought the tall tale that Putin was a rational actor and wouldn't actually invade with the intent of crushing Ukraine, erasing any notion of an independent Ukrainian state, any notion that there's a Ukrainian people at all...

and "we" bought it because it was in our "interest" do so, whether because we wanted cheap energy or because we were afraid, like Salty, of another Cold War. Putin put out his propaganda and many, many parroted it for years.

But Putin isn't a reasonable, rational actor and he never intended to stop.

Nor should we so naive as to imagine he'd stop now.

What's really outrageous to me is that Salty is asking for Ukraine to sacrifice huge amounts critical land and resources to Russia, (according to Salty all Putin actually wants anyway...BS) and just go powder their noses. And then he's going to turn around and tell us the next aggression "isn't the West's war"...unless, of course, it's China...

[Brooklyn]

Oops?

Nope, I don't think Biden, the US, or anyone else in NATO wants Ukraine to have nuclear weapons, but it's why Ukraine wants to be aligned with, under the umbrella of, NATO. Same for Finland and Sweden.

Meanwhile, in the real world, Putin is threatening to use their nukes to subdue Ukraine if they can't otherwise pound them into submission.

Also of benefit for any of these countries concerned with Russian aggression, is the conventional support NATO could bring to bear, swiftly and overwhelmingly, should they choose to do...and are obligated to do so for any NATO member.

Message, don't attack your neighbor, a-holes.

Wait. Every Russian source says the opposite: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/russia- ... mb-2806345

RT used to have more of these but its been censored. Those of you from the right wing believed Bush's stories about Saddam having nukes so this news today should be just as acceptable to you one would think.

So I'm not ready to say "oops" or "I told ya so" like I did with Bush's crazed notions. We shall see what happens next.

[MDlaxfan76]

Oops?

Nope, I don't think Biden, the US, or anyone else in NATO wants Ukraine to have nuclear weapons, but it's why Ukraine wants to be aligned with, under the umbrella of, NATO. Same for Finland and Sweden.

Meanwhile, in the real world, Putin is threatening to use their nukes to subdue Ukraine if they can't otherwise pound them into submission.

Also of benefit for any of these countries concerned with Russian aggression, is the conventional support NATO could bring to bear, swiftly and overwhelmingly, should they choose to do...and are obligated to do so for any NATO member.

Message, don't attack your neighbor, a-holes.

Wait. Every Russian source says the opposite: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/russia- ... mb-2806345

RT used to have more of these but its been censored. Those of you from the right wing believed Bush's stories about Saddam having nukes so this news today should be just as acceptable to you one would think.

So I'm not ready to say "oops" or "I told ya so" like I did with Bush's crazed notions. We shall see what happens next.

Good lord.
Putin says so...

I do get a kick out of you calling me "right wing"...you need to explain that to cradle, Petey and whole bunch of others...cradle calls me FLP constantly. which ain't accurate either, but it does tickle me that you think I'm "right wing". I guess from your perspective...

[Brooklyn]

a fan,

I understand. I'm simply saying that it's a bit unfair to say that we're prolonging this war to serve our own interests. We're prolonging this war because we don't really have any better options.

Yes we do - stay da Fcckkk out of it.

[Brooklyn]

Good lord.
Putin says so...

I do get a kick out of you calling me "right wing"...you need to explain that to cradle, Petey and whole bunch of others...cradle calls me FLP constantly. which ain't accurate either, but it does tickle me that you think I'm "right wing". I guess from your perspective...

Recall "Bush said so". That was good enough for that POS admin from our earlier forum. and other right wingers.

As I said previously, we don't know for certain. Therefore, stay da fcckkk out of it until the issue is settled by them.

[Brooklyn]

From a tactical perspective, we can provide what's necessary to extend the war (at this level) indefinitely, so long as the Ukrainians are

You are mistaken if you think Russia can outlast Ukraine, NATO, various European and non-European allies, and the United States in this war. Russia is going to have a difficult time maintaining the combat readiness of their forces in Ukraine. In several months, Putin will face the choice of a full mobilization of Russia for the war or cutting his losses and going home. Either way, Russia is going to suffer a strategic loss in this conflict.

DocBarrister

A point I tried to make earlier - most reports I hear say Russia's war machinery is near collapse. So why would it continue with its war?? So many conflicting ideas and news. You just don't know what to think.

There is and remains only ONE certainty: that this is NOT our goddamn war. Stay out of it.