Future of College Lacrosse

[richlax5]

For discussions sake, let's consider the potential "reprecussions" on Division 1 lacrosse if football creates a mega-conference and something the follow scenario happens. Right now the SEC looks poised to grow and could develop into a 24-32 team conference as some suggest and this would then mean a number of ACC schools might become SEC and then the remaining either create their own conference or joing the Big 10. Some are suggesting the SEC or BIG 10 should approach the ACC and look at a merger of sorts.

I am going to put this geographically, lets say the following ACC schools are courted by the SEC, UNC, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Louisville, and possible Virgina Tech and Virginia, I know not likely but possible. This would leave BC, Duke, Georgia Tech, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, and Wake Forest. Does lacrosse exist in a vaccum and keep "ACC" lacrosse together or could this help grow the game in the SEC? It is interesting because the Big 10 added Maryland a number of years back and Pitt, BC and Syracuse could move their and grow the Big 10 into a midwest/northeast conference, the SEC could be south/southern midwest/mid-atlanic then the Big 12 could be the remaining midwest to mountain west and PAC 12 becomes the west coast creating 4 football/basketball mega conferneces with all other sports after.

While I know academic profiles and budgets don't all match and priorities are different at each school. For example, Virginia could be more of a Big10 school than SEC. I am just putting the idea out there with quick list that I did not research just went by geography.

[Catbird]

Could Syracuse, Pitt, and BC football end up in the AAC and the rest of their teams go back to the Big East?

[HooDat]

It sure seems to me like division 1 college sports is heading in two very distinct directions.

There is the semi-pro SEC Football side of college athletics and the rest. The rest probably ends up a lot closer to the FCS end of the spectrum.

Schools are going to have to make a choice and make it soon, but administrators being as unimaginative as they are, I suspect that most programs on the edge will delay in deciding and their fate will be decided for them, and it won't be very pretty for the losers.

The Ivy league and many schools on the cusp should go full FCS style - with a focus on all their sports as part of their educational curriculum and as a way to attract a certain demographic of student and generate alumni loyalty - their sports will be for the students and the alumni only. I think this would be a fitting landing spot for schools like Stanford, UVA, Duke, Vanderbilt, Cal, etc... that already struggle to balance D1 football with their academic standards. Football is too deep in ND's blood for them to walk away from the bright lights I am guessing.....

One question I have is whether there will even be a second super conference. I don't see why. If the SEC absorbs Ohio State, Notre Dame, USC, Michigan, Clemson and Florida State - it is game over for any other conference. If I am the commissioner of the SEC that is the move I am making right now. At that point you completely dominate the national TV market for the college football (versus specific college) fan.

If that happens what are we left with? .... Essentially a lot of FCS style conferences. They will have fun football teams/games that appeal to their current students and provide tail-gating experiences and as a means to draw alumni back to the school (eg: donations). But TV dollars are all but gone. Maybe they do self-broadcasting via the internet or they get local tv coverage. The AD's budgets at these schools will drop dramatically and so will the audacity of their facilities. I think sports at these schools will look a lot more like the University of Richmond than Alabama or Southern Cal.

Could this lead to the non-SEC conferences returning to their old regional characteristics, with smaller memberships and the ability to travel by bus? Because travel budgets will be way down. There will be no justification for a Syracuse to travel to Atlanta to play a football game without the huge tv dollars to pay for the cost.

The implications for lacrosse are hard for me to get my head around, but I think the rich will get richer. Schools like Loyola, Richmond and Marist seem to be able to make lacrosse work without football tv money. So do the Ivies. I think the more remote programs could struggle without donor support. If you are Utah, and your football team isn't in the SEC, can you afford to fly to the east coast to play 5 or 6 games a year without someone helping pay the bills? The final impact probably really depends on conference realignment.

[cuseman4133]

Just thinking about lacrosse with the potential of realignment is tough. So many paths anyone could take and all up to the school presidents and ADs and Board of Regents.

In total out of 74 men's lacrosse teams, there are 11 Power 5/Autonomy 5 teams that play (5 ACC, 5 Big Ten sans Johns Hopkins, Pac-12 Utah in the ASUN). There's also 3 Group of 5 teams (the service academies: Mountain West Air Force in the ASUN, AAC Navy in the Patriot League and independent Army also in the Patriot).

ACC: Duke, UNC, Virginia are solid to stay in my eyes. Syracuse probably firm there too. Notre Dame is independent in football, but if they were to join a conference they'd have to join the ACC contractually.

Big Ten: Ohio State and Michigan are your tent poles. Penn State is solid. Rutgers probably ain't leaving, Maryland could but they're enjoying themselves in the 2nd best conference in the country (behind the SEC).

AF not interesting to have the Big 12 poach them. Then Army and Navy would only move for football purposes (and I doubt they will, especially Army).

Right now, I wouldn't see any new teams pop up if super-conferences were established. After the last wave of realignment, how many new FBS schools added lacrosse? 1, and that was Utah. There are other reasons why schools would add lacrosse, realignment would not be one of them.

[hooligan88]

One note. A lot of these colleges are associates with other conferences for single sports their conference does not carry. Alabama, Missouri, Air force are all associate members of the big 12 for sports like Rowing, wrestling , and gymnastics. so even if a Lax conference gets broken up they may allow some teams to keep playing with the conference. They may in fact get a couple of new schools interested.

[cuseman4133]

One note. A lot of these colleges are associates with other conferences for single sports their conference does not carry. Alabama, Missouri, Air force are all associate members of the big 12 for sports like Rowing, wrestling , and gymnastics. so even if a Lax conference gets broken up they may allow some teams to keep playing with the conference. They may in fact get a couple of new schools interested.

Tough to see anything like that happening but perhaps the Pac-12 on the women's side (which consists of all Pac-12 members) or the AAC, also on the women's side. Right now looks like it might affect the women more than the men due to number of programs overall.

[richlax5]

What I truly see happening in Football is simply a 32-64 team "conference" aka, "A" Group that may be dividid in groups of 8 as mini-confereneces, whether it be 4, 5, 6, 7 or 8, depending on the numbers and the idea of an expanded playoff coming solely from those teams where the top two teams from each conference make the playoffs and a bracket is set. I do believe that most of the ACC, BIG 10, BIG 12 and PAC 12 will want a shot to join the SEC schools with a shot to win a National Championship, albeit most will have no shot. We also have to remember that the NCAA is not part of the College Football Playoff so the CFP makes its own rules and what is to stop this from happening in basketball?*

Yes, as posted many schools could drop down to the FCS sub-division but then you will not have the money generating TV contracts and media blitz so then how is it paid for?

As for conference realignment, while this sounds simple it really isn't because most conferences are working on shoe string budgets right now because of the lack of revenue from last year+ so adding a team that may cause more travel or higher incurred costs associated may not be the best option right now or over the next few years.

*Then next aspect of this is what happens to the other NCAA revenue machine that is NCAA Basketball which is where I believe the fallout for tier 2 and 3 sports, i.e. baseball and hockey and lacrosse and soccer will happen. Most, if not all, tier 2 and tier 3 sports do not generate the revenue needed to cover the cost of the sport and need a piece of the NCAA monies to survive and this usually comes from the college itself, student fees, media agreements and NCAA monies given to colleges yearly. While this scenario may be years away, I have to believe it will start rearing its head soon and we will see more of what Hartford just did and move from Division 1 to Division 3.

[Dip&Dunk]

1. Don't think Texas and OU joining SEC is the end. It is the beginning. Next up: ACC and SEC join. B1G and PAC12 join. Think AFC and NFC. Outliers join one or the other side.
2. The concept of conferences, as we know them, changes/starts to disappear.
3. "Football" runs football as they want. Basketball follows suit.
4. Sports individually start to govern themselves as NCAA as we know it also disappears/becomes irrelevant.
5. Individual sports are forced to develop business models. (TV rights, sponsorship, etc.) Concept of amateur completely disappears (if it hasn't already).
6. Some sports adopt an encompassing championship approach (think March madness). Others do a tiered approach (think baseball). Each approach is IAW their business model. (What they can afford, which approach makes the most $)
7. Sports change to make themselves marketable/profitable.
8. Some sports disappear, some excel, some thrive to some extent(where I would put lacrosse), some linger.
9. Wild cards: How does title IX impact what we call college sports if college sports basically go commercial? If football and basketball take their $ and do not play well with others, will we even have most of the sports we have today?

[OSVAlacrosse]

I agree with where this discussion is headed. This a move to replace the NCAA with a football business and a then a basketball tournament event production company. Both with fundamentally change college sports.
As far as lacrosse is concerned I think the sport is in a better place than others as the players do not need scholarships or rely on them. I think the UVA JHU SU UMD UNC and Duke’s of the world will still get the best players and the game will survive. I think this will actually lead to more players playing college lacrosse as an MCLA format will continue to grow in the SEC. With all changes there will be winners and the rest. The most risk is women’s sports. With no NCAA and no athletic scholarships, no need to enforce title IX equity.

[HooDat]

1. Don't think Texas and OU joining SEC is the end. It is the beginning. Next up: ACC and SEC join. B1G and PAC12 join. Think AFC and NFC. Outliers join one or the other side.
2. The concept of conferences, as we know them, changes/starts to disappear.
3. "Football" runs football as they want. Basketball follows suit.

I agree with the logic behind what you are saying, I just don't know that everyone is going to get an invite to the party. If this is about money (which of course it is), then you need to carry your weight.

Taken to its logical conclusion the SEC becomes its own brand of college sports.

After Clemson, ND and Fl State (assuming they get their act together football-wise), there is no-one in the ACC that the SEC wants in their football league. (maybe they take Miami if forced to)

After Ohio State and Mich, there is no one in the BIG10 that the SEC wants in their football league. Would they take Penn St and Wisc? - maybe if forced to by Ohio State.

Same goes for USC - they are the ONLY school that could fit the SEC mold. Again, the SEC powers that be might take Oregon and Washington if forced to. I don't see how Stanford makes football at that level (semi-pro) work within their culture.

Within the SEC itself - Vandy, Missouri and Kentucky might be allowed to hang on because they are already in the conference, but they will be second class citizens and treated as such.

What is left of the ACC, Big10 and PAC12 can TRY to create a competing league, but at best it will be the like the ABA. And eventually (probably quickly) it will fail, and if it was built around the teams I listed (Clemson, ND, Fl St, OSU, Mich, USC), then those schools will be the ones offered spots in the SEC - the rest will end up quasi-FBS whether they want to or not.

So then the question is what do the conferences do? Do they go back to regional leagues or are they sport based? Travel will have to be limited. There will be NO tv money to spread around.

[youthathletics]

Collage Presidents holding the keys to the castle if we are following the logic of D&D and Hoodat.

I would assume, at some point, if football runs football, then a decision has to be made where they play and who's name is on that uniform. Ultimately the school owns them and can name their price if the football program wants to stay Alabama, Clemson, etc. Does admin then sever ties with school sponsored athletics and tells them..... 'you want our facilities and name...then pay up sucka'.

At some point, someone's feelings are going to get hurt and pockets are gonna be filled with lint.....this aint the NFL, unless they are trying to make it that.

[a fan]

Ultimately the school owns them and can name their price if the football program wants to stay Alabama, Clemson, etc. Does admin then sever ties with school sponsored athletics and tells them..... 'you want our facilities and name...then pay up sucka'.

You're the first person I've read who is smart enough to understand this. When people say that UAlabama et. al. are self sustaining , they forget that they're getting their IP for free.

Send them a bill from the State of Alabama for use of NIL and IP, just like everyone else. Whoops, there goes your business model.

Further, WGDR pointed out the Congressional funding. If Congress or even the POTUS doesn't like what they see happening? They can end it all with the stroke of pen, and cut off Federal Funding. Alabama would shut down if they lost their Federal Funding. Half a billion per year in DIRECT funding alone.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Collage Presidents holding the keys to the castle if we are following the logic of D&D and Hoodat.

I would assume, at some point, if football runs football, then a decision has to be made where they play and who's name is on that uniform. Ultimately the school owns them and can name their price if the football program wants to stay Alabama, Clemson, etc. Does admin then sever ties with school sponsored athletics and tells them..... 'you want our facilities and name...then pay up sucka'.

At some point, someone's feelings are going to get hurt and pockets are gonna be filled with lint.....this aint the NFL, unless they are trying to make it that.

Yep. I have no idea why a school would sponsor football or basketball if there was nothing in it for the school. Pro sports is a real business for a relatively small number of universities across this country. If I were a chancellor I would say pay the kids a stipend of $2k-$3k a month, set up a post grad fund $25k-$50k and offer free lifetime education. If that’s not enough, go play in the SEC…..We will play with whomever we recruit….if ESPN will broadcast WSYL and Corn Hole, they will broadcast whatever football remains.

[Dip&Dunk]

1. Don't think Texas and OU joining SEC is the end. It is the beginning. Next up: ACC and SEC join. B1G and PAC12 join. Think AFC and NFC. Outliers join one or the other side.
2. The concept of conferences, as we know them, changes/starts to disappear.
3. "Football" runs football as they want. Basketball follows suit.

I agree with the logic behind what you are saying, I just don't know that everyone is going to get an invite to the party. If this is about money (which of course it is), then you need to carry your weight.

Taken to its logical conclusion the SEC becomes its own brand of college sports.

After Clemson, ND and Fl State (assuming they get their act together football-wise), there is no-one in the ACC that the SEC wants in their football league. (maybe they take Miami if forced to)

After Ohio State and Mich, there is no one in the BIG10 that the SEC wants in their football league. Would they take Penn St and Wisc? - maybe if forced to by Ohio State.

Same goes for USC - they are the ONLY school that could fit the SEC mold. Again, the SEC powers that be might take Oregon and Washington if forced to. I don't see how Stanford makes football at that level (semi-pro) work within their culture.

Within the SEC itself - Vandy, Missouri and Kentucky might be allowed to hang on because they are already in the conference, but they will be second class citizens and treated as such.

What is left of the ACC, Big10 and PAC12 can TRY to create a competing league, but at best it will be the like the ABA. And eventually (probably quickly) it will fail, and if it was built around the teams I listed (Clemson, ND, Fl St, OSU, Mich, USC), then those schools will be the ones offered spots in the SEC - the rest will end up quasi-FBS whether they want to or not.

So then the question is what do the conferences do? Do they go back to regional leagues or are they sport based? Travel will have to be limited. There will be NO tv money to spread around.

(1) I think you agree with this: At a certain point, it is no longer whether certain teams are presently competitive. Texas is the perfect example. Almost right on cue, when they signed their own TV channel contract they started to suck (technical term). But wait, who is going to join the SEC first? (with OU) Texas. Why? Because they have the potential (read deep pockets, institution desire, market and candidate pool (plus many other secondary factors like a $31B endowment, second only to Harvard)) to be competitive AND fiscally viable.

(2) I think we need to start thinking outside of a conference framework. The powers that run the SEC know they cannot leave untapped markets like all of California, Chicago (Heck, the entire Midwest), etc. outside of their fiscal reach. Texas is certainly not being brought in because they are now a perennial football power. (see above)

(3) The now second rate schools in the SEC will stay. Their games against the first rate schools generate enough $ that they aren't going anywhere.

(4) The logic behind (3) is why it is in the best interest of the SEC (or whatever we are going to call it) to allow the creation of a second conference/league I guess made of B1G and PAC 12 teams. Just as the NFL and MLB have reshuffled teams to balance travel and traditional rivalries, so will this new system eventually.

(5) Yes, at some level, a cut off will be made between the haves and the have nots. But I believe there is enough TV $ to go very deep, deeper than we may guess now, in support of football/basketball teams.

(6) Our question is whether or not it is deep enough for lacrosse.

[youthathletics]

Serious question. At what point does "TV MONEY" start drying up. With fewer and fewer viewers, most people are gravitating towards streaming with no or very little commercials. Not so sure "TV MONEY" is sustainable in the next decade or two, unless uniforms start looking like NASCAR suits.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Serious question. At what point does "TV MONEY" start drying up. With fewer and fewer viewers, most people are gravitating towards streaming with no or very little commercials. Not so sure "TV MONEY" is sustainable in the next decade or two, unless uniforms start looking like NASCAR suits.

What college (live) sports have going for it is that its a live event and ratings can be determined in real time. Being able to determine who is watching and when has value. I saw drone racing on TV a couple of years ago. People will watch anything and sponsored uniforms are very likely. You see EPL soccer jerseys?

[wgdsr]

Serious question. At what point does "TV MONEY" start drying up. With fewer and fewer viewers, most people are gravitating towards streaming with no or very little commercials. Not so sure "TV MONEY" is sustainable in the next decade or two, unless uniforms start looking like NASCAR suits.

we've been saying that for a while. these conferences know better than us. they've been printing presses. streaming brings in revenue for premium product, same and more from cable, yada.
the broadcasters have been willing to pay up. because advertisers and eyeballs. total viewership v, targeted ads ^. fb and googl are crushing.

see their earnings?

[old salt]

With fewer and fewer viewers, most people are gravitating towards streaming with no or very little commercials. Not so sure "TV MONEY" is sustainable

What ESPN+ is doing with lax is the model. You can watch in HD on your big screen, fewer commercials & in game promos, announcers with a week to week connection with the schools & the insights they bring. The improvement in production quality from PLN/Stadium to ESPN+ was impressive. Well worth the $5/mo in season. I did not subscribe to BTN or the ACC network the last couple seasons, but I assume their streaming games are also comparable in quality to cable network productions.

[Wheels]

Football and basketball break off as a separate athletic entity. All remaining sports remain with the NCAA.

[youthathletics]

Drip-drip-drip.....jockeying for position, this young lady is funny: https://twitter.com/AnnieAgar/status/14 ... 22624?s=20