Is a 2021 season going to happen?

[HooDat]

You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

FTR - many of my MD friends are skeptics as well. The unanimous opinion is that they have no idea

[hofpride]

Imagine a $1, at-home, paper-based test that’s as easy to distribute and use as a pregnancy test. Imagine waking up in the morning, adding saliva or mucus to a tube of chemicals, waiting 15 minutes, dipping a paper strip in the tube and reading your results — instantly.

Now imagine every single person in America doing this every couple of days.

So-called rapid antigen tests aren’t science fiction. In fact, they already exist. Two such tests, made by BD and Quidel, have received emergency authorization from the Food and Drug Administration, though both still require instruments to run. (The governors of six states announced this week a joint bid to purchase a total of 3.5 million of these antigen tests.) Another $1 antigen test has been put to use in Senegal. And U.S. companies such as E25Bio and Sherlock Biosciences have developed at-home tests as cheap and easy as the one described above.

These are not the same thing as the antibody tests you might have heard of, which detect virus-fighting substances in the blood of people who were infected previously (and may therefore have immunity). Rapid antigen tests are meant to detect ongoing, active infections-this from yahoo.com

[xxxxxxx]

The next few weeks will be critical, the SEC and southern schools are going back soon. When the inevitable happens and they have say 100 cases on a campus, what will they do? Will they have the political courage to stay open and fight through, or will they send everybody home? That will tell you a lot. As lacrosse fans we also need the teams that are playing fall football to make it work, probably with out fans for now, as Penn State just announced no fans. Winter sports are going to be key as well, looks like most wont start until January, and if they cancel Basketball it's probably over for spring sports.

Fact is the numbers of new cases is still pretty high, but going down, and the number of deaths is also going down. I am no doctor but it appears to be getting better and we are much better at treating it then we were in the Spring. I look at this chart often, hoping for declines but it is pretty slow to move down. I think it's pretty accurate.

https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALe ... ent=psy-ab

I believe these Universities are in a really tough spot, many can not survive a year where a big percentage of kids drop out or take a gap year. The big ones will be ok, but many are already hurting and this could be the final nail.

As someone with two college lacrosse players one in a final year next year my hope is for a vaccine sooner than later. I think there is real hope for one this fall and the article below from Tim Magazine quotes the CEO of Pfizer in July saying they plan to have 100 million doses ready to go in October and 1.1 Billion in 2021, and they are not alone Astra and Moderna are is stage three testing as well. I have no idea who would be priority for the vaccine after medical workers, but have to think college students and University employees would be pretty high on the list. There is a lot of info on the vaccine some of it very encouraging some not so much. Google corona vaccine, I think it is our best hope for a Spring Lacrosse season.

https://time.com/5864690/pfizer-vaccine-coronavirus/

[DMac]

You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

FTR - many of my MD friends are skeptics as well. The unanimous opinion is that they have no idea

That actually sums it up rather nicely. The answer my friend, is blowin' in the wind, the answer is blowin' in the wind. Catchy, eh?
Put me on the unaminious list of skeptics, it aint lookin good (to me), brothas.

[DMac]

Would any of you have any reservations about sending your kids down to get in line for that vaccination (I would...am not an anti vaxer, but I'm not willing to be a guinea pig either)?

[Cooter]

It may not be a typical type season, but would expect something to in play by then. We have 5 more months to work through all this...putting us close to a year to date with more data, knowledge, therapeutics, etc...

I am reasonably optimistic that some D1 lacrosse will be played. Fans might not be allowed in the stands. The length of the season might cut back. Some leagues might not play. Teams might have to accept talented players sitting due to positive test results.

[44WeWantMore]

Would any of you have any reservations about sending your kids down to get in line for that vaccination (I would...am not an anti vaxer, but I'm not willing to be a guinea pig either)?

One framework for thinking about it at the end of this post: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginal ... -idea.html
After a discussion of how to think about it on average, then possible different answer for those at high-risk.

[pcowlax]

The vaccine will not be the panacea that many are assuming.

The truth is we won't return to "normal" until we have better therapeutics. The good news is that we are heading in that direction. Remdesivir, proning, less of a reliance on ventilators, dozens of anti-virals/therapeutic drugs in trials.

Short of having 2-3 more proven therapeutics come next February, I don't think you will see spring sports next year. It is my understanding that the NCAA was prepping to announce cancellation of Division 1 fall sports yesterday. And given the start time of "winter" sports, I can't see them happening either.

Unfortunately none of those therapeutics will allow a return to normal because such a return will depend as much on peoples’ perception of the virus and its risks rather than actual medical data. Something like proning, which reduces mortality in critically ill patients (this is nothing new by the way, I have horrible memories of wing told to probe patients years and years ago in beds that were not as amenable to it as today’s). This does not change a college’s calculus on having sports. Neither do remdesivir, tocilizumab or any of those dozens of drugs in all likelihood. These kids are already at extraordinarily low risk of bad outcomes if they catch COVID. If a drug comes out that is very successful, reducing mortality in hospitalized patients > 70 years old by 60%, say from 10% to 4%, that is going to change opinions on college lacrosse how? For a therapeutic, not a vaccine, to allow a return to normal it would have to be so effective as to change the mindset of the millions who have internalized this as some epochal threat to civilization. It would have to be something that anyone who gets it can just pop a few pills and be over it. This is most certainly NOT how the medical field evaluate successful treatment and the severity/risk of illness but any return to normal will be driven by the behaviors and beliefs of the population at large, not my doctors or data. All that is, of course, lamentable but true.

[HooDat]

Would any of you have any reservations about sending your kids down to get in line for that vaccination (I would...am not an anti vaxer, but I'm not willing to be a guinea pig either)?

One framework for thinking about it at the end of this post: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginal ... -idea.html
After a discussion of how to think about it on average, then possible different answer for those at high-risk.

Wouldn't dream of sending my kids - all evidence says they don't need it unless they have some other condition. Given my general health, I am not rushing to get a vaccine either

[pcowlax]

The next few weeks will be critical, the SEC and southern schools are going back soon. When the inevitable happens and they have say 100 cases on a campus, what will they do? Will they have the political courage to stay open and fight through, or will they send everybody home? That will tell you a lot. As lacrosse fans we also need the teams that are playing fall football to make it work, probably with out fans for now, as Penn State just announced no fans. Winter sports are going to be key as well, looks like most wont start until January, and if they cancel Basketball it's probably over for spring sports.

Fact is the numbers of new cases is still pretty high, but going down, and the number of deaths is also going down. I am no doctor but it appears to be getting better and we are much better at treating it then we were in the Spring. I look at this chart often, hoping for declines but it is pretty slow to move down. I think it's pretty accurate.

https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALe ... ent=psy-ab

I believe these Universities are in a really tough spot, many can not survive a year where a big percentage of kids drop out or take a gap year. The big ones will be ok, but many are already hurting and this could be the final nail.

As someone with two college lacrosse players one in a final year next year my hope is for a vaccine sooner than later. I think there is real hope for one this fall and the article below from Tim Magazine quotes the CEO of Pfizer in July saying they plan to have 100 million doses ready to go in October and 1.1 Billion in 2021, and they are not alone Astra and Moderna are is stage three testing as well. I have no idea who would be priority for the vaccine after medical workers, but have to think college students and University employees would be pretty high on the list. There is a lot of info on the vaccine some of it very encouraging some not so much. Google corona vaccine, I think it is our best hope for a Spring Lacrosse season.

https://time.com/5864690/pfizer-vaccine-coronavirus/

Please don’t “google corona vaccine” and expect to get any real sense of where we are. It is commendable, and a big thanks to US government, that many manufactures are mass producing vaccines before they know if they will work (gov is going to pay them for doses even if they end up not working). At least one of them likely will “work”, as long as you have a realistic perspective on what that means. None of them however have shown anything yet. That says nothing about their likelihood of success, just to say that in this setting being “in phase 3 testing” is the first time they will be tested to see is they actually reduce contraction of COVID, there is no real data at all on that yet that I am aware of.

[DMac]

Neither would I, Hoo. Was faced with this kind of situation while in the military. Swine flew was the big scare, all were ordered to get the vaccine. I refused, took some heat but I never got the shot. Again, I'm not an anti vaxer, followed orders while in the military but I wasn't going to be a guinea pig.

[hofpride]

*CUOMO SAYS ALL SCHOOL DISTRICTS IN N.Y. CAN RE-OPEN

[bearlaxfan]

Therapeutic treatment for the main disease effects is certainly improving, but what we are learning at the same time about unanticipated cardio/pulmonary/vascular and mental dysfunction from cov19 (temp? permanent? treatable? we don't know yet) even among young people (ATHLETES TOO) should mean the only acceptable 'herd immunity' must come via vaccine(s).

[bananas]

Time flies. January be here soon.

A regular season would have slips and stoppages.

Some schools can be expected to drop out along the way

NCAA should monkey around some and consider a condensed schedule by geographical breakdown instead of conference play and then have a abbreviated playoff derived from two teams from six sections or so.

[ProudPapa]

I’d put the chances of a 2021 season somewhere between none and no chance in hell.

Unlike football, the schools actually save money by cancelling non-revenue sports. Easiest call a conference or AD ever has to make. Throw in reduced liability and it’s pretty clear what will happen.

[Reddogg]

[quote=Reddogg post_id=174354 time=1596755709 us

Your degrees and/or extensive experiences in medicine, epidemiology, infectious disease and virology are???

Obviously none.

DocBarrister

Whatever. I didn't realize you needed a degree in immunology to discuss things on a lax board. The appeal to authority is pretty weak. The data is easy to follow. The young are at almost no risk.

More fear and loathing from the usual suspects.

[wgdsr]

Would any of you have any reservations about sending your kids down to get in line for that vaccination (I would...am not an anti vaxer, but I'm not willing to be a guinea pig either)?

One framework for thinking about it at the end of this post: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginal ... -idea.html
After a discussion of how to think about it on average, then possible different answer for those at high-risk.

Wouldn't dream of sending my kids - all evidence says they don't need it unless they have some other condition. Given my general health, I am not rushing to get a vaccine either

absolutely i'd send them, dmac. unless you're talking about the russian vaccine, whatever wins out is going to have 10s of thousands of participants in 3rd stage trials.

personally not a big flu vaccination person, though wife has had kids/herself doing it annually all the way up.

[Drcthru]

[quote=Reddogg post_id=174354 time=1596755709 us

Your degrees and/or extensive experiences in medicine, epidemiology, infectious disease and virology are???

Obviously none.

DocBarrister

Whatever. I didn't realize you needed a degree in immunology to discuss things on a lax board. The appeal to authority is pretty weak. The data is easy to follow. The young are at low risk!

More fear and loathing from the usual suspects.

The data(plural)are not easy to follow without a scientific background. The young are at increasing risk and are highly contagious. Not fear and loathing...caution! You don't need a weatherman to tell you the wind direction but, you damn better listen to a meteorologist if you want to know where a Hurricane is going!

[wgdsr]

[quote=Reddogg post_id=174354 time=1596755709 us

Your degrees and/or extensive experiences in medicine, epidemiology, infectious disease and virology are???

Obviously none.

DocBarrister

Whatever. I didn't realize you needed a degree in immunology to discuss things on a lax board. The appeal to authority is pretty weak. The data is easy to follow. The young are at almost no risk.

More fear and loathing from the usual suspects.

The data(plural)are not easy to follow without a scientific background. The young are at increasing risk and are highly contagious. Not fear and loathing...caution!

so maybe say that next time.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Would any of you have any reservations about sending your kids down to get in line for that vaccination (I would...am not an anti vaxer, but I'm not willing to be a guinea pig either)?

One framework for thinking about it at the end of this post: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginal ... -idea.html
After a discussion of how to think about it on average, then possible different answer for those at high-risk.

Wouldn't dream of sending my kids - all evidence says they don't need it unless they have some other condition. Given my general health, I am not rushing to get a vaccine either

absolutely i'd send them, dmac. unless you're talking about the russian vaccine, whatever wins out is going to have 10s of thousands of participants in 3rd stage trials.

personally not a big flu vaccination person, though wife has had kids/herself doing it annually all the way up.

Most vaccines are tested for years to determine the long term impact. Here we won’t have that data. No way you can squeeze long term impact into 4 or 5 months unless you have a time machine.