Who’s Next? ( rising program that could crack top 20)

[Dehuntshigwa’es]

Many of us are familiar with those historical top 20 teams. I’d be interested in learning which teams you feel have the ability to rise among the vast array of D3 programs, either due to coaching, facilities, geography or academics that would indicate that program could vault into the top 20. Hopefully we hear from knowledgeable fans from those teams and get specific points that would support their case. Looking at a 3-4 year time horizon

[dingdongdman]

I would note that Randolph-Macon has slowly been improving. This past season they beat Roanoke and Haverford (who had a few upsets) and had a close game with HSC. If they keep improving they could make a splash, although to be honest I believe it was just a case of Roanoke and HSC having down years but we'll see this season if they can repeat. I don't see them ever beating the likes of Lynchburg or W&L though.

[SixBySix]

Crack the Top 20, or consistently join the teams in the conversation for Top 20? If it's a one-time appearance, I'd look to teams in power conferences who have traditionally been in the middle of the pack and can easily pick up attention/votes due to their affiliation with the big dogs. For example, over the next 3-4 years, I'd be surprised if none of Haverford, Muhlenberg, Swarthmore, or WAC (believe it or not, they're mediocre now!) doesn't show up in the polls at least for a handful of weeks. I'm sure a similar case could be made for the middle of the NESCAC, Liberty, or ODAC.

In terms of more sustainable rises, I don't have any particularly deep insight, but over the past few years a few teams have caught my eye. Coast Guard, Stockton, Catholic, Elizabethtown, Messiah, and Kenyon has all had some recent success that could be built upon. I am expecting that the Midwest and Southern schools are going to continue to improve as their local talent bases mature, and would expect that to fuel a few solid D3 programs in the near future, but I don't know who that is likely to be after Denison/OWU.

[Nothing But Net]

Last Year, I went with Williams because I'm a Homer lets keep in the NESCAC....
... Belichick's Dark Horse

[LibertyL]

I'm sure a similar case could be made for the middle of the NESCAC, Liberty, or ODAC.

For sure someone from NESCAC that hasn't been there in a few years will. They are due.
Liberty has had plenty in the top 20 lately. I'd like to see a Middlebury, or a Bowdoin really
pushing the competition in the Northeast.

[Fandadof3laxers]

Big test for SMCM vs Dickinson this Saturday. Anyone a believer in what the other Child’s coach is building on the river?

[Zonesurgeon]

While it most certainly won't happen, nearly every team in the NESCAC (besides conn college, Hamilton, and maybe Bowdoin) has the talent to be in the top 20 in the next few years. Unfortunately, as a result of their lacking OOC schedule, and incredibly difficult conference play, their records simply won't allow for it. Besides conn and Hamilton, every team in the NESCAC could have good games with the 12-20 ranked teams. I also see Capital making a splash in the next few years. For such a new program they have made great strides in the last few years. I can see Hampden Sydney getting stronger as they develop their younger talent.

[oldtimelax]

Ohio Northern has 27 wins in last two years and has a very good coach who recruits well and is playing Rhodes and Nazareth out-of-conference this year. Most of the squad is from Ohio and Indiana, but St. Laurent has been able to get players from Upstate NY and Long Island.....

[OldTymeLax]

Hope College is an up and comer. Lots of 1st and 2nd team all conference players returning, 2 transfers from Denison over the winter break, a former HS All American transfer from Roanoke this summer. Could be solid from a tournament team from last year. Only really lost their goalie, who is now a transfer grad player at Michigan.

[Redbirds]

Those transfers and lack of turnover should make a big difference. If Hope wants a chance to break into the the top 20 they need their toughest games to be a lot more than Carthage and Elmhurst. Illinois Wesleyan was on their schedule last year and not this year. To achieve the goal of becoming nationally relevant, they need to wreck their competition and then grossly improve strength of schedule.

[OldTymeLax]

Those transfers and lack of turnover should make a big difference. If Hope wants a chance to break into the the top 20 they need their toughest games to be a lot more than Carthage and Elmhurst. Illinois Wesleyan was on their schedule last year and not this year. To achieve the goal of becoming nationally relevant, they need to wreck their competition and then grossly improve strength of schedule.

You also have to get the "better" teams to agree to play you. They have a LOT more to lose by losing to a "lower" team. It's a hard sell.

[ergit]

You develop a lacrosse program by building up the competition, step by step, over several seasons as the team improves. Finding better competition involves traveling and playing away from home mid-week. Mid-week games for really good teams are more about convenience and travel considerations and this opens up scheduling opportunities for up-and-coming teams.

[Redbirds]

Illinois Wesleyan (IWU) and Rhodes appear to be the most likely non traditional programs ready to make the jump and potentially stick around. They both are relatively new programs in non traditional markets that have had some success and are positioned well to continue to grow. They are both dominating their conferences which in both cases have some solid programs in their conferences including Elmhurst, Carthage, Berry, Sewanee, and Birmingham Southern. They both have been improving the strength of their schedules every year. Especially Illinois Wesleyan. I am not as personally familiar with Rhodes or the SAA as I am with IWU and the CCIW. The CCIW is a strong athletic conference and Illinois Wesleyan takes their athletics pretty seriously. Illinois Wesleyan plays OWU, Ursinis, Washington College, and Dickinson this year. They can show us just how close they are this year. Rhodes has Salisbury on their schedule. Rhodes plays at IWU this Sunday. They both most likely will be in the playoffs again this year, and as long as they continue to dominate their conferences. I feel it is only a matter of time before one of these teams knocks off Denison (or OWU) and gets to the final four. IWU has beaten OWU in 2 of their last 3 meetings. Rhodes destroyed IWU last year in the playoffs.

[Nosey Ned]

I feel it is only a matter of time before one of these teams knocks off Denison (or OWU) and gets to the final four. IWU has beaten OWU in 2 of their last 3 meetings. Rhodes destroyed IWU last year in the playoffs.

It's HIGHLY unlikely either of these teams will be playing Denison in the Elite Eight (regardless of any new format) so beating Denison won't be a ticket to the Final Four. It would be a place in the quarterfinals at best. Nit picking perhaps but I've seen both these teams live a couple times the last couple years and both have improved nicely ... but to be clear, neither are a Final Four program yet. That's a stretch. Make top 20 consistently and then perhaps you can talk seriously about the Final Four for one of these programs.

[Redbirds]

I feel it is only a matter of time before one of these teams knocks off Denison (or OWU) and gets to the final four. IWU has beaten OWU in 2 of their last 3 meetings. Rhodes destroyed IWU last year in the playoffs.

It's HIGHLY unlikely either of these teams will be playing Denison in the Elite Eight (regardless of any new format) so beating Denison won't be a ticket to the Final Four. It would be a place in the quarterfinals at best. Nit picking perhaps but I've seen both these teams live a couple times the last couple years and both have improved nicely ... but to be clear, neither are a Final Four program yet. That's a stretch. Make top 20 consistently and then perhaps you can talk seriously about the Final Four for one of these programs.

They already play Denison regularly in the playoffs. It is my mistake, I thought the next round after playing Denison was the final 4. The question that was asked is who is next in the top 20. It is my opinion that these are the programs. Because they will likely continue to go to the playoffs, and they both seem to improve annually. Eventually, one of them will win that game. If they continue to get to the game vs Denison, it only takes one good game. Ned, do you search for the word "Denison" and then respond to all those posts?

[Nosey Ned]

I feel it is only a matter of time before one of these teams knocks off Denison (or OWU) and gets to the final four. IWU has beaten OWU in 2 of their last 3 meetings. Rhodes destroyed IWU last year in the playoffs.

It's HIGHLY unlikely either of these teams will be playing Denison in the Elite Eight (regardless of any new format) so beating Denison won't be a ticket to the Final Four. It would be a place in the quarterfinals at best. Nit picking perhaps but I've seen both these teams live a couple times the last couple years and both have improved nicely ... but to be clear, neither are a Final Four program yet. That's a stretch. Make top 20 consistently and then perhaps you can talk seriously about the Final Four for one of these programs.

They already play Denison regularly in the playoffs. It is my mistake, I thought the next round after playing Denison was the final 4. The question that was asked is who is next in the top 20. It is my opinion that these are the programs. Because they will likely continue to go to the playoffs, and they both seem to improve annually. Eventually, one of them will win that game. If they continue to get to the game vs Denison, it only takes one good game. Ned, do you search for the word "Denison" and then respond to all those posts?

Haha ... last question first. No I don't search for Denison, I apparently just have too much time on my hands and wind up reading 95% of the D3 posts!

Now to the other points. .... in previous posts I am on record saying that both these explicit programs are up and comers and I welcome that for the good of D3 lacrosse in general and Midwest lacrosse specifically ... afterall, high water raises all boats. I suggested they continue to improve every year as they have and good things (including top 20 respect) would follow. However in the above post in question, I was simply pointing out that these 2 teams aren't simply 1 step away from the Final Four as you had stated. The hill to climb is much higher then that. I agree, one day, down the road one of these 2 teams will win that game against Denison. And what will that get them? Just another even bigger giant to slay - most likely a team like Salisbury. And only then after beating that giant might they reach the Final Four! That's the giant Denison has been trying to slay the past 5 years or so! One day they will!

So be careful what you wish for ....... we all have our demons to face .... we are part of the food chain! Choose your metaphor.... any number will fit!

In closing .... good luck to all teams this year and I'm hoping for an exciting season!

[FannOLax]

You develop a lacrosse program by building up the competition, step by step, over several seasons as the team improves. Finding better competition involves traveling and playing away from home mid-week. Mid-week games for really good teams are more about convenience and travel considerations and this opens up scheduling opportunities for up-and-coming teams.

Well, yes, if you're in a weak conference. The fairly recent emergence of York and Christopher Newport show the advantage of being in a conference with a traditional power (Salisbury) who has to play you. So maybe someone like Shenandoah in the ODAC or Haverford in the Centennial Conference, provided they hire the right young coach and the school throws enough support behind lacrosse.

[droliver]

Second the nod to Rhodes College as an emerging power.

They have a fantastic school, veteran coach (Zazarro) and have been successfully recruiting nationally for the last 3-4 years now. They’ve separated themselves right now in the SAA talent and depth wise and can play with just about anyone at this point. If they beat Illinois Wesleyan tomorrow, they will be undefeated headed for a big game with Solsbury in March.

[BigMad]

I think there's a pretty clear path to sustainable long-term success:
1.) Coaching
2.) Recruiting potential of the school
3.) Path to the NCAA tournament

There's a number of factors that influence these three things including geography. With all do respect to the Midwest and Southern schools that have been listed I just don't see them having the ability to string together strong enough out-of-conference schedules for sustainable long-term success at a national level. Their in-conference foes are often not up to par to compete nationally and the historical recruiting base of the institutions are not hotbeds for lacrosse talent. You're not going to have sustainable long-term success unless you can play a schedule against some of the strongest teams in the country consistently.

Based on these factors I look at mid-Atlantic and New England schools in Pool A conferences that are ready to make a jump from a traditional one-and-done AQ (CSAC, Landmark, NEWMAC, for example). I think Elizabethtown, Stockton, and Coast Guard are prime candidates. They're all geographically located in areas where there is a strong base of HS lacrosse, have strong coaching staffs, and can present a unique value-prop to incoming students on why they should go there. All of this goes on top of the strong OOC schedule they've put together the past couple years.

[richard]

BigMad- How big of an influence do you think the US News college rankings are when it comes to recruiting? WAC, OWU, and now Roanoke seem to be on a downward spiral. These are good schools that the rankings do a disservice to. The kids probably don't care as much as the parents but it still creates an issue for recruiting to those schools. There are plenty of schools that have had to deal with it , McDaniel, Randolph Macon, and many others come to mind. It's just another hump to get over and it is more perception than reality.