LaxPower Back-Up Stick

Rankings are out, but in alpha order (details are there if you click on Region link at bottom):

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/lacrosse- ... l-rankings

valaxfan

valaxfan wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 4:47 pm Rankings are out, but in alpha order (details are there if you click on Region link at bottom):

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/lacrosse- ... l-rankings

valaxfan

Thanks for posting this up.

I’m pretty shocked to see Stevenson regionally ranked. If you click the bottom breakdown links, it highlights the two primary factors (results vs ranked opponents & SOS) and the one secondary factor (overall record).

From a York homer’s perspective, I personally saw neither York nor Stevenson ranked. But on the NCAA’s own “primary” metrics, York had a stronger case. (2 regionally ranked wins to Stevenson’s 1, and a .667 SOS to Stevenson’s .607). I wonder what the threshold needed to be for the secondary metric to outweigh both primaries combined. (Or did being a game under .500 flat out DQ York)

The good news for York is should they win tonight they will earn a third regionally ranked win, and will likely have a record well over .500 at next ranking release.

Thanks again for posting.

DeepPocket wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 5:17 pm

valaxfan wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 4:47 pm Rankings are out, but in alpha order (details are there if you click on Region link at bottom):

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/lacrosse- ... l-rankings

valaxfan

Thanks for posting this up.

I’m pretty shocked to see Stevenson regionally ranked. If you click the bottom breakdown links, it highlights the two primary factors (results vs ranked opponents & SOS) and the one secondary factor (overall record).

From a York homer’s perspective, I personally saw neither York nor Stevenson ranked. But on the NCAA’s own “primary” metrics, York had a stronger case. (2 regionally ranked wins to Stevenson’s 1, and a .667 SOS to Stevenson’s .607). I wonder what the threshold needed to be for the secondary metric to outweigh both primaries combined. (Or did being a game under .500 flat out DQ York)

The good news for York is should they win tonight they will earn a third regionally ranked win, and will likely have a record well over .500 at next ranking release.

Thanks again for posting.

not to be a downer. but most likely just a mistake. since it’s the first week and they don’t rank them regionally the first week. york has more regional wins and that would get them in above stevenson. but the downer part is that if york wins tonight, stevenson would no longer be ranked, thus, not giving york another ranked win.

it will all come down to who wins the MAC

I am glad this was posted finally, i feel like the season is almost over. i was going to try and digit this out on my own yesterday, then realized how much work it would have been.

Jumbo wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 5:45 pm not to be a downer. but most likely just a mistake. since it’s the first week and they don’t rank them regionally the first week. york has more regional wins and that would get them in above stevenson. but the downer part is that if york wins tonight, stevenson would no longer be ranked, thus, not giving york another ranked win.

it will all come down to who wins the MAC

I am glad this was posted finally, i feel like the season is almost over. i was going to try and digit this out on my own yesterday, then realized how much work it would have been.

Oh 100%. For Stevenson and York it is AQ or bust. I’m just enjoying discussing the first bit of official DIII lacrosse post-season implications. And in that vein, if York wins and Stevenson drops out of the rankings, who do you insert?

DeepPocket wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 6:27 pm Oh 100%. For Stevenson and York it is AQ or bust. I’m just enjoying discussing the first bit of official DIII lacrosse post-season implications. And in that vein, if York wins and Stevenson drops out of the rankings, who do you insert?

York. But the next options would be Muhlenberg or Cabrini.

Can anyone share the relevance of the regional rankings? I am assuming helping with pool C differential and NCAA seeding for AQ’s for 1st round home games and pod seeding.

Regional rankings updated. And they now appear to be in ranking order, and not alphabetical. https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/lacrosse- ... l-rankings

Thanks for posting. Why is St Mary’s Md in reg2?

SKUD wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2024 12:57 pm Thanks for posting. Why is St Mary’s Md in reg2?

It goes by their conference.
https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/champi ... gnment.pdf

DeepPocket wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2024 12:48 pm Regional rankings updated. And they now appear to be in ranking order, and not alphabetical. https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/lacrosse- ... l-rankings

interesting. with this new info, it starts to give an idea of who could be getting at large. looks like wins is more important than losses.

assuming the top teams win their bracket and get AQ, here are the rankings in order for the 10 at large based on wins vs other ranked teams
CNU 6 wins
Lynchburg 6 (assuming W&L AQ with 6 wins)
RPI 5 (assuming RIT AQ with 6 wins)
all locks to get in

Wesleyan 4 (assuming Tufts AQ)
St Law 4
Union 4
Roanoke 4

that is 7 of the teams with 4 or more wins.


Swarthmore, GBurg, Amherst, Middlebury and York have 3 wins
most likely. york wins the MAC and the final 3 at large bids come from these 4 remaining teams.

teams that need 2 more wins and others above to not win anymore.
Muhlenburg, Bowdoin




if we have a crazy upset in conference play, that will shake everything up

Is Salisbury an at large bid?

Low2high22 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2024 1:52 pm Is Salisbury an at large bid?

salisbury will get the pool B

I think Salisbury Pool C because they don’t have an AQ

Lacrossefan25 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2024 6:20 pm I think Salisbury Pool C because they don’t have an AQ

They are eligible for Pool B because they don't have an AQ (and will get the one Pool B bid this year). All teams not chosen for Pool A or Pool B then go into the Pool C sweepstakes.

Question for the board--I thought the "once-ranked, always-ranked" principle had been discarded a few years ago. Is that not the case? Looking at the data sheets, they have Swat as 3-1 vRRO, which I can't square unless they are still counting Vassar as a ranked win.

SixBySix wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2024 11:30 pm Question for the board--I thought the "once-ranked, always-ranked" principle had been discarded a few years ago. Is that not the case? Looking at the data sheets, they have Swat as 3-1 vRRO, which I can't square unless they are still counting Vassar as a ranked win.

3-1 based on regionally ranked last week. The next week will show 2-1 vs regionally ranked.

Laxattackjack wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2024 1:25 pm

DeepPocket wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2024 12:48 pm Regional rankings updated. And they now appear to be in ranking order, and not alphabetical. https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/lacrosse- ... l-rankings

interesting. with this new info, it starts to give an idea of who could be getting at large. looks like wins is more important than losses.

assuming the top teams win their bracket and get AQ, here are the rankings in order for the 10 at large based on wins vs other ranked teams
CNU 6 wins
Lynchburg 6 (assuming W&L AQ with 6 wins)
RPI 5 (assuming RIT AQ with 6 wins)
all locks to get in

Wesleyan 4 (assuming Tufts AQ)
St Law 4
Union 4
Roanoke 4

that is 7 of the teams with 4 or more wins.


Swarthmore, GBurg, Amherst, Middlebury and York have 3 wins
most likely. york wins the MAC and the final 3 at large bids come from these 4 remaining teams.

teams that need 2 more wins and others above to not win anymore.
Muhlenburg, Bowdoin




if we have a crazy upset in conference play, that will shake everything up

Just curious because I don’t think I fully understand how the process works. To my understanding at large bids were based on regional rankings. So if Bowdoin is ranked above Amherst and Middlebury in regional rankings why would the two latter get in before Bowdoin?

Nescac12001 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2024 11:05 am

Laxattackjack wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2024 1:25 pm

DeepPocket wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2024 12:48 pm Regional rankings updated. And they now appear to be in ranking order, and not alphabetical. https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/lacrosse- ... l-rankings

interesting. with this new info, it starts to give an idea of who could be getting at large. looks like wins is more important than losses.

assuming the top teams win their bracket and get AQ, here are the rankings in order for the 10 at large based on wins vs other ranked teams
CNU 6 wins
Lynchburg 6 (assuming W&L AQ with 6 wins)
RPI 5 (assuming RIT AQ with 6 wins)
all locks to get in

Wesleyan 4 (assuming Tufts AQ)
St Law 4
Union 4
Roanoke 4

that is 7 of the teams with 4 or more wins.


Swarthmore, GBurg, Amherst, Middlebury and York have 3 wins
most likely. york wins the MAC and the final 3 at large bids come from these 4 remaining teams.

teams that need 2 more wins and others above to not win anymore.
Muhlenburg, Bowdoin




if we have a crazy upset in conference play, that will shake everything up

Just curious because I don’t think I fully understand how the process works. To my understanding at large bids were based on regional rankings. So if Bowdoin is ranked above Amherst and Middlebury in regional rankings why would the two latter get in before Bowdoin?

Middlebury is going to drop out of the rankings with the loss to Williams which in a sense should drop Bowdoin because the win over Middlebury is less significant in my mind. I think Amherst is better than Bowdoin because they beat RPI and Swathmore. IN addition, the Amherst-Tufts game was much more competitive than the Bowdoin-Tufts game. The NESCAC tournament will determine the final rankings but not sure why they ranked Bowdoin ahead of Amherst right now. Makes no sense for a number of reasons but could change.

The12lov3 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2024 11:17 am

Nescac12001 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2024 11:05 am

Laxattackjack wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2024 1:25 pm

DeepPocket wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2024 12:48 pm Regional rankings updated. And they now appear to be in ranking order, and not alphabetical. https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/lacrosse- ... l-rankings

interesting. with this new info, it starts to give an idea of who could be getting at large. looks like wins is more important than losses.

assuming the top teams win their bracket and get AQ, here are the rankings in order for the 10 at large based on wins vs other ranked teams
CNU 6 wins
Lynchburg 6 (assuming W&L AQ with 6 wins)
RPI 5 (assuming RIT AQ with 6 wins)
all locks to get in

Wesleyan 4 (assuming Tufts AQ)
St Law 4
Union 4
Roanoke 4

that is 7 of the teams with 4 or more wins.


Swarthmore, GBurg, Amherst, Middlebury and York have 3 wins
most likely. york wins the MAC and the final 3 at large bids come from these 4 remaining teams.

teams that need 2 more wins and others above to not win anymore.
Muhlenburg, Bowdoin




if we have a crazy upset in conference play, that will shake everything up

Just curious because I don’t think I fully understand how the process works. To my understanding at large bids were based on regional rankings. So if Bowdoin is ranked above Amherst and Middlebury in regional rankings why would the two latter get in before Bowdoin?

Middlebury is going to drop out of the rankings with the loss to Williams which in a sense should drop Bowdoin because the win over Middlebury is less significant in my mind. I think Amherst is better than Bowdoin because they beat RPI and Swathmore. IN addition, the Amherst-Tufts game was much more competitive than the Bowdoin-Tufts game. The NESCAC tournament will determine the final rankings but not sure why they ranked Bowdoin ahead of Amherst right now. Makes no sense for a number of reasons but could change.

Honest question, does the head to head game where Bowdoin dominated Amherst not factor into your thinking? I do think that Bowdoin needs to get to tourney finals to make it, while Amherst probably just needs a first round win.

Nescac12001 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2024 11:05 am

Laxattackjack wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2024 1:25 pm

DeepPocket wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2024 12:48 pm Regional rankings updated. And they now appear to be in ranking order, and not alphabetical. https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/lacrosse- ... l-rankings

interesting. with this new info, it starts to give an idea of who could be getting at large. looks like wins is more important than losses.

assuming the top teams win their bracket and get AQ, here are the rankings in order for the 10 at large based on wins vs other ranked teams
CNU 6 wins
Lynchburg 6 (assuming W&L AQ with 6 wins)
RPI 5 (assuming RIT AQ with 6 wins)
all locks to get in

Wesleyan 4 (assuming Tufts AQ)
St Law 4
Union 4
Roanoke 4

that is 7 of the teams with 4 or more wins.


Swarthmore, GBurg, Amherst, Middlebury and York have 3 wins
most likely. york wins the MAC and the final 3 at large bids come from these 4 remaining teams.

teams that need 2 more wins and others above to not win anymore.
Muhlenburg, Bowdoin




if we have a crazy upset in conference play, that will shake everything up

Just curious because I don’t think I fully understand how the process works. To my understanding at large bids were based on regional rankings. So if Bowdoin is ranked above Amherst and Middlebury in regional rankings why would the two latter get in before Bowdoin?

One of the main factors is wins vs regionally ranked teams, not the actual regional ranking of a team itself. Amherst wins over RPI, Swat and Gettysburg are strong. They did indeed get blown out by Bowdoin but also have 1 goal losses to Tufts and Wes and 2 goals to Lynchburg in a game they definitely should have won. H2H matters but not when there is so much other difference in resume. They escaped disaster yesterday thanks to some absurd goaltending (how often do you see a game with both keepers at 70%+?). I think Bowdoin is probably toast without the AQ. If they make the finals, they will likely have a win over Wes, which would be another RR win. One would think Williams would replace Midd in next RR so Bowdoin win over them in first round would give them a second RR yet by winning that they would probably drop Williams out of final RR, thereby screwing themselves (to the extent a polar bear is able to do such a thing).