LaxPower Back-Up Stick

nyjay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:52 pm A first look from US Lacrosse. This one strikes as pretty out there (UVa unseeded?), but a lot of stuff is going to happen over the next 5-6 weeks.

https://www.usalacrosse.com/magazine/co ... projection

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:11 pm Why even publish this if you're not going to use updated numbers?

This is the RPI top 10 that Pat Stevens is using:

1 Yale
2 PSU
3 ND
4 Duke
5 Hopkins
6 Cornell
7 Syracuse
8 Virginia
9 Denver
10 Maryland

But this is the actual, current RPI top 10:

1 Duke
2 PSU
3 Yale
4 Hopkins
5 Notre Dame
6 Cornell
7 Syracuse
8 Virginia
9 Denver
10 Princeton

It's not helpful — in fact, it's actively unhelpful to the discussion — to publish a bracketology based on numbers from several days ago.

coda wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:24 pm
The interesting one is Army. They are already down to 12 and that probably isnt going higher. They kind of went from #1 to bubble with 1 loss.

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:32 pm

coda wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:24 pm
The interesting one is Army. They are already down to 12 and that probably isnt going higher. They kind of went from #1 to bubble with 1 loss.

Yeah I'm not sure they can afford another loss. They certainly can't afford two more losses. Will be interesting to see what happens if they win out but then lose the PL title game. Will obviously depend on what other teams do, but that's not a spot I'd want to be in.

It's still early but wouldn't be surprised if the bubble ends up being a 4th B1G vs. a 3rd Ivy vs. a 2nd Big East.

Penn State owns the most well-rounded profile at this stage, and three of its final four regular-season games are against Top 20 opponents. … Cornell’s victory over Yale already appears to be one of the more valuable assets on the board.

10stone5 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:11 pm

Penn State owns the most well-rounded profile at this stage, and three of its final four regular-season games are against Top 20 opponents. … Cornell’s victory over Yale already appears to be one of the more valuable assets on the board.

These are two solid observations from this way too early write-up.

I’d add,
Duke is in better position for the NCAAs than people think that their play to date allows.

laxreference wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 9:40 am I've been surprised at the degree to which people think Duke MLAX does not have a strong tournament resume. UVA is now the second, but for weeks, Duke was the only lock for the tournament. I think it would be helpful for me to lay out why the model thinks that.

First, Duke has the best set of wins of any team in the country. And it's not just because they have more wins than anyone else. Even when we weight the best victories more, Duke's wins are collectively, the highest-rated.

Compare them to ND (also very likely to make the field, just not a lock yet). Duke's best 6 victories are against the Nos. 5, 14, 17, 19, 22 and 26 (these are RPI rankings). Notre Dame's best 6 wins are against Nos. 6, 7, 16, 18, 43, 50.

In terms of losses, Duke's got the 7th least damaging set of losses in the country. Penn is 13th in the RPI and Syracuse is 6th. UVA, Denver, Yale, ND, OSU, Princeton have less damaging losses. MD, Cornell, Army, JHU, PSU. All have worse losses than Duke does.

So as of today, their wins and losses stack up with anyone. Ok, but they still have UVA/ND/UNC and one more ACC game? Surely they can't be a lock with that stretch still to go. Wrong.

Let's assume that Duke loses their final 4 games (LaxElo gives this an 11% chance of happening). Here's how that would look.

That shows how Duke would stack up against Penn, Denver and Maryland in a world where they finished 10-6. Their RPI projects as 7th and their wins and losses project as 6th strongest. And that's assuming the 1-in-9 worst outcome for Duke plays out.

As you know, I run 2k simulations of the rest of the season every night. So that includes situations where we had bid thieves and roughly 200 simulations where Duke lost out. They made the field in every single one of those scenarios. Is there a scenario that could play out that was not captured in one of those 2,000 simulations? Sure, but it's vanishingly unlikely.

And this is not just an RPI thing. When you look at their record in all the RPI buckets like the committee does, their resume tends to look better than their raw RPI.

At the end of the day, Duke has the best set of victories and no bad losses. They are going to have an RPI tailwind because of their upcoming ACC games. Even if they lose out, their resume is still squarely in what is at-large territory.

That's why the model has them as a lock.

coda wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 9:45 am

I am not sure anyone is questioning Duke's tournament resume. I think it is more people questioning, if they are a legit contender. Right now they seem to be outside that first cut (ND and UVa). Lot of it that offense that is more Club team, than college offense. They need someone to run the offense, not named ONeill. He is a greater scorer, but he will never be confused as an X. That said I would not bet against them, as the talent is obviously there. If they figure it out, they are clearly in that top group. Right now it is about coaching, but talent for Duke.

laxreference wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 9:40 am
Compare them to ND (also very likely to make the field, just not a lock yet). Duke's best 6 victories are against the Nos. 5, 14, 17, 19, 22 and 26 (these are RPI rankings). Notre Dame's best 6 wins are against Nos. 6, 7, 16, 18, 43, 50.

coda wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 9:45 am

laxreference wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 9:40 am I've been surprised at the degree to which people think Duke MLAX does not have a strong tournament resume. UVA is now the second, but for weeks, Duke was the only lock for the tournament. I think it would be helpful for me to lay out why the model thinks that.

First, Duke has the best set of wins of any team in the country. And it's not just because they have more wins than anyone else. Even when we weight the best victories more, Duke's wins are collectively, the highest-rated.

Compare them to ND (also very likely to make the field, just not a lock yet). Duke's best 6 victories are against the Nos. 5, 14, 17, 19, 22 and 26 (these are RPI rankings). Notre Dame's best 6 wins are against Nos. 6, 7, 16, 18, 43, 50.

In terms of losses, Duke's got the 7th least damaging set of losses in the country. Penn is 13th in the RPI and Syracuse is 6th. UVA, Denver, Yale, ND, OSU, Princeton have less damaging losses. MD, Cornell, Army, JHU, PSU. All have worse losses than Duke does.

So as of today, their wins and losses stack up with anyone. Ok, but they still have UVA/ND/UNC and one more ACC game? Surely they can't be a lock with that stretch still to go. Wrong.

Let's assume that Duke loses their final 4 games (LaxElo gives this an 11% chance of happening). Here's how that would look.

That shows how Duke would stack up against Penn, Denver and Maryland in a world where they finished 10-6. Their RPI projects as 7th and their wins and losses project as 6th strongest. And that's assuming the 1-in-9 worst outcome for Duke plays out.

As you know, I run 2k simulations of the rest of the season every night. So that includes situations where we had bid thieves and roughly 200 simulations where Duke lost out. They made the field in every single one of those scenarios. Is there a scenario that could play out that was not captured in one of those 2,000 simulations? Sure, but it's vanishingly unlikely.

And this is not just an RPI thing. When you look at their record in all the RPI buckets like the committee does, their resume tends to look better than their raw RPI.

At the end of the day, Duke has the best set of victories and no bad losses. They are going to have an RPI tailwind because of their upcoming ACC games. Even if they lose out, their resume is still squarely in what is at-large territory.

That's why the model has them as a lock.

I am not sure anyone is questioning Duke's tournament resume. I think it is more people questioning, if they are a legit contender. Right now they seem to be outside that first cut (ND and UVa). Lot of it is an offense that is more Club team, than college offense. They need someone to run the offense, not named ONeill. He is a greater scorer, but he will never be confused as an X. That said I would not bet against them, as the talent is obviously there. If they figure it out, they are clearly in that top group. Right now it is about coaching, not talent for Duke.

BigTurn wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 12:14 pm

coda wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 9:45 am

laxreference wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 9:40 am I've been surprised at the degree to which people think Duke MLAX does not have a strong tournament resume. UVA is now the second, but for weeks, Duke was the only lock for the tournament. I think it would be helpful for me to lay out why the model thinks that.

First, Duke has the best set of wins of any team in the country. And it's not just because they have more wins than anyone else. Even when we weight the best victories more, Duke's wins are collectively, the highest-rated.

Compare them to ND (also very likely to make the field, just not a lock yet). Duke's best 6 victories are against the Nos. 5, 14, 17, 19, 22 and 26 (these are RPI rankings). Notre Dame's best 6 wins are against Nos. 6, 7, 16, 18, 43, 50.

In terms of losses, Duke's got the 7th least damaging set of losses in the country. Penn is 13th in the RPI and Syracuse is 6th. UVA, Denver, Yale, ND, OSU, Princeton have less damaging losses. MD, Cornell, Army, JHU, PSU. All have worse losses than Duke does.

So as of today, their wins and losses stack up with anyone. Ok, but they still have UVA/ND/UNC and one more ACC game? Surely they can't be a lock with that stretch still to go. Wrong.

Let's assume that Duke loses their final 4 games (LaxElo gives this an 11% chance of happening). Here's how that would look.

That shows how Duke would stack up against Penn, Denver and Maryland in a world where they finished 10-6. Their RPI projects as 7th and their wins and losses project as 6th strongest. And that's assuming the 1-in-9 worst outcome for Duke plays out.

As you know, I run 2k simulations of the rest of the season every night. So that includes situations where we had bid thieves and roughly 200 simulations where Duke lost out. They made the field in every single one of those scenarios. Is there a scenario that could play out that was not captured in one of those 2,000 simulations? Sure, but it's vanishingly unlikely.

And this is not just an RPI thing. When you look at their record in all the RPI buckets like the committee does, their resume tends to look better than their raw RPI.

At the end of the day, Duke has the best set of victories and no bad losses. They are going to have an RPI tailwind because of their upcoming ACC games. Even if they lose out, their resume is still squarely in what is at-large territory.

That's why the model has them as a lock.

I am not sure anyone is questioning Duke's tournament resume. I think it is more people questioning, if they are a legit contender. Right now they seem to be outside that first cut (ND and UVa). Lot of it is an offense that is more Club team, than college offense. They need someone to run the offense, not named ONeill. He is a greater scorer, but he will never be confused as an X. That said I would not bet against them, as the talent is obviously there. If they figure it out, they are clearly in that top group. Right now it is about coaching, not talent for Duke.

Agree, the doubt is not regarding their tournament resume. Duke 1st mids were AWOL against Cuse and Danenza just got demoted to 2nd line. They have a problem creating from the midfield, and from anywhere in general when O’Neill is not producing.

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 1:23 pm Here's how I see things right now.

Bracketology is difficult right now because some current conference leaders (namely Penn and BU) are probably not actually the favorites to win the AQ. But since they are technically leading their conferences right now you kind of have to pretend like they are, and go from there. That shrinks the bubble.

AQs (and their RPIs): Hopkins (3), Denver (5), Penn (13), St. Joes (15), BU (19), Towson (21), Air Force (37), Sacred Heart (41), Albany (42)
At-larges: ND (1), Duke (2), Syracuse (6), Virginia (4), Maryland (7), Penn State (8), Cornell (9), Yale (10)

Last two in: Cornell, Yale
First two out: Georgetown, Army
Work to do: Penn (if they lose AQ), Princeton, Michigan

If you were to plug Cornell/Yale into the Ivy AQ instead of Penn, that'd put Georgetown in, and I'd send them to Maryland. Georgetown has a lot of paths in, but right now, based on AQ leaders, they're my first team out. I do not love Army's at-large chances if they do not win the Patriot League, but it's still possible.

1 Notre Dame
Albany/Sacred Heart

8 Penn State
Yale

4 Syracuse
BU

5 Johns Hopkins
St. Joe's

3 Denver
Air Force

6 Virginia
Penn[/]

7 Maryland
Cornell

2 Duke
Towson

Can this be played in a monsoon?

AreaLax wrote: ↑Wed Apr 10, 2024 5:30 pm USA Lacrosse recent bracket

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Air Force-METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart
(8) IVY/Yale vs. Penn State

Hempstead, N.Y.

(5) BIG EAST/Denver vs. PATRIOT/Colgate
(4) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s

Towson, Md.

(3) Duke vs. CAA/Towson
(6) Maryland vs. Georgetown

Towson, Md.

(7) Syracuse vs. Cornell
(2) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. AMERICA EAST/Bryant

Last three included: Penn State, Cornell, Georgetown
First three on the outside: Penn, Princeton, Harvard
Moving in: Bryant, Colgate, Georgetown
Moving out: Albany, Army, Penn
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Big East (2), Ivy (2)

https://www.usalacrosse.com/magazine/co ... factor-now