2024 Pool C

[SixBySix]

Thought it would be interesting to merge some of the discussions from various conference threads to one place. As DIII veterans well know, one of the most important factors is Record vs Regionally Ranked teams (RRR). At the moment, by Massey rankings, as best I can tell we would have (note, I do not believe this has updated with 3/23 results. York almost certainly drops for Stevenson next update):

Region 1:
Tufts
Bowdoin
Amherst
Wesleyan
Middlebury
Hamilton
Endicott

Region 2:
RIT
RPI
St Lawrence
Union
Nazareth
Genneseo
Ithaca

Region 3:
Salisbury
CNU
Dickinson
Gettysburg
Swarthmore
Stevens
York

Region 4:
Lynchburg
W&L
RMC
Roanoke
Denison
Grove City
Hampden Sydney


Region 5:
Elmhurst
IWU
Rhodes
Sewanee
Centre
North Central
Hope

So, at the start of conference play, of those "ranked" teams who's got those sweet, sweet Regionally Ranked Wins?

RIT: 5 (Tufts, Denison, Nazareth, W&L, York)
St Lawrence 5 (York, CNU, Nazareth, Geneseo, Rhodes)
Salisbury: 5 (Grove City, Gettysburg, Lynchburg, York, geneseo)
CNU: 4 (HSC, Grove City, Dickinson Lynchburg)
RPI: 4 (York, Geneseo, Midd, RIT)
Dickinson: 3 (Stevens, Roanoke, York)
Amherst: 3 (Swat, Hamilton, Gettysburg)
Tufts: 3 (CNU, Hamilton, stevens)
Bowdoin: 2 (Midd, Endicott)
Endicott: 2 (Nazareth, Bowdoin)
Union: 2 (Endicott, Midd)
W&L: 2 (Denison, Elmhurst)
Roanoke: 2 (Grove City, Centre)
Hampden Sydney: 2 (Rhodes, RMC)
Gettysburg: 2 (Lynchburg, Denison)
Stevens: 2 (Rhodes, Wesleyan)
Middlebury: 1 (Amherst)
Wesleyan: 1 (Roanoke)
Hamilton: 1 (Lynchburg)
Nazareth: 1 (Ithaca)
Genneseo: 1 (Ithaca)
Lynchburg: 1 (Denison)
Elmhurst 1 (hope)
Sewanee: 1 (IWU)
Centre: 1 (Elmhurst)
Hope 1 (IWU)

Keep in mind that the teams in stronger conferences in each region will get additional RRO opportunities during the conference season.

Initial thoughts:
- The Liberty has likely already locked up two Pool Cs, as even as they beat up on each other RIT, RPI, and SLU are in great shape, with Union well-positioned to snag a 3rd with a few conference wins. Vassar could realistically sneak into the RR which would be a huge boost as well.
- The 'CAC definitely lost a step compared to the LL this year, and only Tufts and Amherst have a lot of room for in-conference stumbles. Middlebury taking a few more losses and dropping out of the RR could have a big impact on resumes.
- Region 5 does not have a team that looks like an obvious bid stealer with no particularly notable out of region wins yet
- Despite poor performances against the other regions, the ODAC might have preyed on Region 4 and 5 enough to get a Pool C
- Dickinson is reasonably well-positioned heading into CC play as long as they take care of business against the bottom half of the conference. Gettysburg and Swarthmore have some work to do but will likely be in the Pool C mix at the end of the day
- Whichever of Stevenson or York wins the AQ will shuffle a lot of teams at the end of the year, as the winner will likely be Regionally Ranked and the loser right on the wrong side of Pool C contention

Predicting the 10 Pool Cs now, I'm expecting in roughly declining order of certainty:
CNU/Salisbury
RPI (can't get past RIT a second time)
SLU
Amherst (lose to Tufts in the finals)
Bowdoin
Gettysburg
Wesleyan
Union
Swarthmore (loses final to Dickinson again)
W&L edges out Stevenson by strategic scheduling

[balderdash]

Denison / the ncac is region v this year

[aroundtheoutside]

This is great work sixbysix! Thanks for writing this up. The selection system boggles my mind every year. Anyone know how the regions are determined and why they change so often?

[5Star]

Nice work. W&L has a win over Gettysburg BTW.

Grove city is region 3 not 4 and NCAC has been moved to region 5.

[Laxisback]

I don’t think the CLC has an AQ again this year, so Salisbury and CNU will have to both get pool C bids to get in.

[flyealgesfly]

that’s a lot of work. impressive. but everything is going to change so much by the time the first ranking comes out.

[SixBySix]

Denison / the ncac is region v this year

Interesting--I couldn't find a good list of the assignments so I went by last year's regional rankings. Will update later today!

[D3LaxFan2]

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/champi ... gnment.pdf

[SixBySix]

that’s a lot of work. impressive. but everything is going to change so much by the time the first ranking comes out.

Oh, it's completely meaningless at this point, but wanted to kick start some discussion and get a little better understanding of the selection process out there.

[SixBySix]

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/champi ... gnment.pdf

Perfect! The last page suggests that there is in fact a Pool B bid along with the 10 Pool C. So that may be a de facto CLC AQ.

[D3LaxFan2]

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/champi ... gnment.pdf

Perfect! The last page suggests that there is in fact a Pool B bid along with the 10 Pool C. So that may be a de facto CLC AQ.

POOL ALLOCATIONS

Pool A: 27
Pool B: 1
Pool C: 10

[balderdash]

Region 1: CCC, GNAC, LEC, NESCAC, NEWMAC
Region 2: E8, LL, NAC, Skyline, SUNYAC, UE
Region 3: AEC, Centennial, CLC (pool b), Landmark, MAC-C, MAC-F
Region 4: OAC, ODAC, PAC, SAA, USA South
Region 5: CCIW, HCLC, MIAA, MLC, NCAC, NACC

[flyealgesfly]

that’s a lot of work. impressive. but everything is going to change so much by the time the first ranking comes out.

Oh, it's completely meaningless at this point, but wanted to kick start some discussion and get a little better understanding of the selection process out there.

i like it. i was thinking something similar last night. wondering how the ncaa ranks the teams for the tourney. and how they are seeded. mostly likely, the top 8 teams will host. or something similar. #1 seed should host the #15, #16 and #32. etc

[SixBySix]

Now updated and corrected!

Region 1:
Tufts
Bowdoin
Amherst
Wesleyan
Middlebury
Babson
Hamilton

Region 2:
RIT
RPI
Union
St Lawrence
Cortland
Geneseo
St John Fisher

Region 3:
Salisbury
CNU
Dickinson
Gettysburg
Swarthmore
Stevens
York

Region 4:
Lynchburg
W&L
Roanoke
RMC
Grove City
Hampden Sydney
Rhodes

Region 5:
Denison
OWU
Kenyon
IWU
Elmhurst
Wooster
Hope

So, at the start of conference play, of those "ranked" teams who's got those sweet, sweet Regionally Ranked Wins?

RIT: 5 (Tufts, Denison, SJF, W&L, York)
St Lawrence 5 (York, CNU, Geneseo, Rhodes)
Salisbury: 5 (Grove City, Gettysburg, Lynchburg, York, Geneseo)
CNU: 4 (HSC, Grove City, Dickinson Lynchburg, OWU)
RPI: 4 (York, Geneseo, Midd, RIT)
Dickinson: 4 (Stevens, Roanoke, York, Kenyon)
Amherst: 3 (Swat, Hamilton, Gettysburg)
Tufts: 3 (CNU, Hamilton, stevens)
W&L: 3 (Denison, Elmhurst, Gettysburg)
Hampden Sydney: 2 (Rhodes, RMC)
Gettysburg: 2 (Lynchburg, Denison)
Stevens: 2 (Rhodes, Wesleyan)
Grove City: 2 (Kenyon, OWU)
Ithaca: 2 (SJF, Wooster)
Union: 1 (Midd)
Bowdoin: 1 (Midd)
Endicott: 1 ( Bowdoin)
Roanoke: 1 (Grove City)
Middlebury: 1 (Amherst)
Wesleyan: 1 (Roanoke)
Hamilton: 1 (Lynchburg)
Lynchburg: 1 (Denison)
Elmhurst 1 (hope)
Sewanee: 1 (IWU)
Centre: 1 (Elmhurst)
Hope 1 (IWU)
Denison: 1 (Kenyon)
Cortland: 1 (SJF)

Keep in mind that the teams in stronger conferences in each region will get additional RRO opportunities during the conference season.

Initial thoughts:
- The Liberty has likely already locked up two Pool Cs, as even as they beat up on each other RIT, RPI, and SLU are in great shape, with Union well-positioned to snag a 3rd with a few conference wins. Vassar could realistically sneak into the RR which would be a huge boost as well.
- The 'CAC definitely lost a step compared to the LL this year, and only Tufts and Amherst have a lot of room for in-conference stumbles. Middlebury taking a few more losses and dropping out of the RR could have a big impact on resumes.
- Dickinson is reasonably well-positioned heading into CC play as long as they take care of business against the bottom half of the conference. Gettysburg and Swarthmore have some work to do but will likely be in the Pool C mix at the end of the day
- Whichever of Stevenson or York wins the AQ will shuffle a lot of teams at the end of the year, as the winner will likely be Regionally Ranked and the loser right on the wrong side of Pool C contention
- Big changes here: NCAC in Region 5 could have a huge impact--Denison, OWU, and Kenyon all pick up an extra 2-3 RR win opportunities
- ODAC dominating Region 4 rankings means that the top 3 teams will get enough RR wins to fluff out another resume

Predicting the 10 Pool Cs now, I'm expecting in roughly declining order of certainty:
CNU/Salisbury - one gets Pool B, the other Pool C
RPI (can't get past RIT a second time)
SLU
Amherst (lose to Tufts in the finals)
Bowdoin
Gettysburg
Wesleyan
Union
W&L
HSC or RMC - ODAC dominating the Region 4 rankings with the NCAC going to Region 5 is huge here

Interesting note: let's look at the overall ranking of the median RR teams by region:
Region 1: #10 Wesleyan
Region 2: #6 St. Lawrence
Region 3: #12 Gettysburg
Region 4: #33 Randolph-Macon
Region 5: #62 IWU

[ah23]

Thanks for doing this as always, really interesting even at this early point in the season.

[aroundtheoutside]

I don't know much about the Regional Rankings and how they're determined--at what point does a team like York with so many losses drop out of regional rankings? I imagine that would affect many teams resumes that have beaten York.

[Laxattackjack]

I don't know much about the Regional Rankings and how they're determined--at what point does a team like York with so many losses drop out of regional rankings? I imagine that would affect many teams resumes that have beaten York.

if york loses next week to Denison, i would expect Stevenson to replace them. that will take away a regional win from 6 of those teams. would hurt Grove City the most, which would hurt Roanoke. if York beats Denison and Gettysburg, they will help several teams and York all of the sudden would have 3 regional wins.

[SixBySix]

I don't know much about the Regional Rankings and how they're determined--at what point does a team like York with so many losses drop out of regional rankings? I imagine that would affect many teams resumes that have beaten York.

So it's important to clarify that these are not in any way the official regional rankings, which will not start being released for another month or so. These are the top rated teams by Massey index in each region to give a sense of which teams might be ranked if there were rankings calculated today, and what those implications would be for the Pool C selections. I don't think I have seen a team with a sub 0.500 record in an official regional ranking.

[balderdash]

Regional rankings come out today correct? First week is alphabetical correct? then, from next week on, they are hard ranked?

RIT by your count would actually have 6 as they beat GC.
GC would have 3 (OWU, Kenyon, York)
York would have 2 (W&L, Denison)
Swat would have 2 (Dickinson, Gettysburg)
Noke picks up a big RRW vs H-SC, with a bunch more ODAC opportunities on the table

The 7th region iv ranking could be a factor - think it would be centre? Would give noke another rrw

[DeepPocket]

Bracket to expand by 2 bids (to 40) for 2025

https://www.ncaa.org/news/2024/4/18/med ... ckets.aspx