2024 Pool C

[SixBySix]

Well, now armed with the real first set of regional rankings, it is time to revisit this post. Let's just note how well the Massey composite predicted the RR almost exactly 1 month ago: Region I (6/7, included Hamilton instead of Endicott), Region II (6/7, included SJF instead of Vassar), Region III (6/7, included York instead of Stevenson though I would argue that this will likely flip after the head-to-head result this week), Region IV (6/7, included Rhodes instead of Centre), and Region V (6/7, included Wooster instead of Oberlin). I suppose one could argue that predicting the 7th team is the most difficult (and perhaps most important) aspect.

More importantly, let's take a look at the vRRO of the current Pool C contenders (note that as this is the first week of the regional rankings, this is not calculated for me by the NCAA so there will likely be a few errors as I manually compile these). I'll also mark who I am assuming am getting a Pool A or B bid to save space:

Region I:
Amherst 3-4
Babson 2-2 Pool A
Bowdoin 2-2
Endicott 1-1 Pool A
Middlebury 2-5
Trinity 1-2
Tufts 5-2 - Pool A
Wesleyan 3-2
Williams 2-6

Region II:
Cortland 2-1 Pool A
RPI 5-1
RIT 7-1 Pool A
SLU 4-1
SUNY Geneseo 0-5
Union 2-3
Vassar 0-4

Region III
CNU 6-3
Dickinson 5-2 ???
Gettysburg 3-5 ???
Salisbury 6-0 Pool A
Stevens 1-2
Stevenson 1-5
Swarthmore 3-1 ???
York 3-7 Pool A

Region IV
Centre 1-2 Pool A
Grove City 2-4 Pool A
HSC 2-3
Lynchburg 5-4
RMC 0-3
Roanoke 3-3
W&L 5-3 Pool A

Region V
Denison 2-4 Pool A
Elmhurst 2-2 Pool A
Hope 2-1 Pool A
IWU 0-2
Kenyon 2-4
Oberlin 0-5
OWU 2-3

And the reason anyone reads these things, the Pool C analysis with SoS as of the RR release:

Stone-Cold Locks (4): RPI (.609), SLU (.633), CNU (.688), Lynchburg (.634)
Likely In Unless They Lose Out (4): Bowdoin (.579), Wesleyan (.619), Amherst (.574), Dickinson if no AQ (.630)
Who Knows?/Need a Conference Tournament Win (6): Swarthmore(.590)/Gettysburg (.637) if no AQ, Middlebury (.652), Williams (0.673), Union (.673), Roanoke (.577)

14 teams for 11 spots (I've not given a Pool A bid to the CC in this analysis). Ultimately, I don't see the NESCAC and LL combining for 7 Pool C bids, so my first thought is to expect at least two of Midd/Williams/Union to be left out. If Gettysburg and Roanoke both lose in the quarterfinals of their conference tournaments, could potentially be a good case study of overall record vs SoS. I've underlined the teams I would predict to get bids today, but I suspect there is a very strong chance that either Swat or Gettysburg loses out in favor of another NESCAC team depending on how the last few weeks shake out.

Important caveats:
1) NEWMAC is a potential bid-stealing conference, I don't really see many others (HSC, for example, could bump W&L into the Pool C mix but likely at the cost of completely eliminating Roanoke from contention)
2) Who gets those #6 and #7 spots in each region can have a big impact on the vRRO records and will not be set in stone until Selection Sunday
3) Conference tournament games are not only opportunities to get the AQ, but can dramatically reshape a team's vRRO record even with a loss in the finals

[aroundtheoutside]

Thank you so much for giving us this analysis!

[Laxguy3]

Thank you so much for giving us this analysis!

Bump. Great analysis. Lots of pressure on teams this weekend to perform. Can anyone beat the Gulls this year? They have been rolling all year without hesitation.

[BallBag]

Good work, SixbySix....

[aroundtheoutside]

Thank you so much for giving us this analysis!

Bump. Great analysis. Lots of pressure on teams this weekend to perform. Can anyone beat the Gulls this year? They have been rolling all year without hesitation.

As dominant as SU has been, and even with their pedigree, there's always a chance that they get surprised. All it takes is showing up a little overconfident or starting a little bit flat to give another team an opening. I think it was 2022 when Salisbury was dominating the regular season like normal, then out of nowhere lost to CNU by 10, and eventually lost to Tufts in the tourney. Obviously the rosters and circumstances are different this time around, but SU hasn't played an elite schedule this season, so it will be interesting to see how they fare when the heat turns up in the tourney.

[CentennialPundit]

Awesome work. I could see muhlenberg sliding into the rankings after beating Gettysburg, which could shake things up a little. Gonna be a very contentious selection process….

[VTLaxGuy]

2) Who gets those #6 and #7 spots in each region can have a big impact on the vRRO records and will not be set in stone until Selection Sunday
3) Conference tournament games are not only opportunities to get the AQ, but can dramatically reshape a team's vRRO record even with a loss in the finals

These are both great points.
I've always thought about conference tournament fields and how it impacts things for teams.

Take the NESCAC having an 8 team tournament instead of a 4, 5 (LL) or 6 team tournament: Most years those first round games affords the top NESCAC teams a chance to boost their strength of schedule number and IN RARE CASES even gives them a chance at an extra win vs RRO.

On the other hand, some conferences that have 8 team tournaments, probably end up hurting their top teams, lowering their SOS numbers by having them play an 8 seed who is below .500 and makes the conference tournament almost by default with 1 or 2 conference wins.

Will be very interesting to see how things shake out in the LL. SLU has both RIT and RPI still to play.

Also keeping a close eye on Middlebury....Sitting at 7-6 with two conference games to go, plus at least one playoff game (currently the 5 seed in the 'Cac). If Midd were to split the final two games of the season and get bounced out of the NESCAC playoff in the first round, it's very likely that they fall out of the Regional Rankings with a .500 record (8-8). This would take 5 regional ranked wins off the table (RIP, Union, Babson, Bowdoin, Tufts) and maybe more importantly take regional ranked losses off the table for SLU and Amherst.....could be very very interesting.

[pcowlax]

Fantastic stuff 6b6, very greatly appreciated! Still extremely fluid and good point by VTlax how one or two losses can cascade and affect the profiles of many teams. This is definitely not a year for 5 NESCAC teams so either Midd or Williams will be out and agree quite possibly both but both do still have the opportunity to play themselves in, and not just by the AQ either. Assuming Union beats Vassar and SJF and loses to RIT, if I were them I would not feel comfortable going out in LL quarters. I think there is a decent gap between the top 3 in LL and Union so I don't see them winning a semi-final game, which would leave them very much on the last team in/out line.

[Brokenstick]

Great analysis-Thanks! Discussed earlier this morning relative to the ODAC, and potential scenarios that could allow more than 2 teams to get into the NCAA tournament. This really lays out the bigger picture. Nice work.

[FosterLax3]

Pretty sure those NCAA rankings are listed in alphabetical order. I definitely remember in years past this has happened before and confuses people. Not that it matters too much at the moment but don't get too ahead of yourselves reading into questionable rankings.

[hooray]

Well, now armed with the real first set of regional rankings, it is time to revisit this post. Let's just note how well the Massey composite predicted the RR almost exactly 1 month ago: Region I (6/7, included Hamilton instead of Endicott), Region II (6/7, included SJF instead of Vassar), Region III (6/7, included York instead of Stevenson though I would argue that this will likely flip after the head-to-head result this week), Region IV (6/7, included Rhodes instead of Centre), and Region V (6/7, included Wooster instead of Oberlin). I suppose one could argue that predicting the 7th team is the most difficult (and perhaps most important) aspect.

More importantly, let's take a look at the vRRO of the current Pool C contenders (note that as this is the first week of the regional rankings, this is not calculated for me by the NCAA so there will likely be a few errors as I manually compile these). I'll also mark who I am assuming am getting a Pool A or B bid to save space:

Region I:
Amherst 3-4
Babson 2-2 Pool A
Bowdoin 2-2
Endicott 1-1 Pool A
Middlebury 2-5
Trinity 1-2
Tufts 5-2 - Pool A
Wesleyan 3-2
Williams 2-6

Region II:
Cortland 2-1 Pool A
RPI 5-1
RIT 7-1 Pool A
SLU 4-1
SUNY Geneseo 0-5
Union 2-3
Vassar 0-4

Region III
CNU 6-3
Dickinson 5-2 ???
Gettysburg 3-5 ???
Salisbury 6-0 Pool A
Stevens 1-2
Stevenson 1-5
Swarthmore 3-1 ???
York 3-7 Pool A

Region IV
Centre 1-2 Pool A
Grove City 2-4 Pool A
HSC 2-3
Lynchburg 5-4
RMC 0-3
Roanoke 3-3
W&L 5-3 Pool A

Region V
Denison 2-4 Pool A
Elmhurst 2-2 Pool A
Hope 2-1 Pool A
IWU 0-2
Kenyon 2-4
Oberlin 0-5
OWU 2-3

And the reason anyone reads these things, the Pool C analysis with SoS as of the RR release:

Stone-Cold Locks (4): RPI (.609), SLU (.633), CNU (.688), Lynchburg (.634)
Likely In Unless They Lose Out (4): Bowdoin (.579), Wesleyan (.619), Amherst (.574), Dickinson if no AQ (.630)
Who Knows?/Need a Conference Tournament Win (6): Swarthmore(.590)/Gettysburg (.637) if no AQ, Middlebury (.652), Williams (0.673), Union (.673), Roanoke (.577)

14 teams for 11 spots (I've not given a Pool A bid to the CC in this analysis). Ultimately, I don't see the NESCAC and LL combining for 7 Pool C bids, so my first thought is to expect at least two of Midd/Williams/Union to be left out. If Gettysburg and Roanoke both lose in the quarterfinals of their conference tournaments, could potentially be a good case study of overall record vs SoS. I've underlined the teams I would predict to get bids today, but I suspect there is a very strong chance that either Swat or Gettysburg loses out in favor of another NESCAC team depending on how the last few weeks shake out.

Important caveats:
1) NEWMAC is a potential bid-stealing conference, I don't really see many others (HSC, for example, could bump W&L into the Pool C mix but likely at the cost of completely eliminating Roanoke from contention)
2) Who gets those #6 and #7 spots in each region can have a big impact on the vRRO records and will not be set in stone until Selection Sunday
3) Conference tournament games are not only opportunities to get the AQ, but can dramatically reshape a team's vRRO record even with a loss in the finals

Maybe I'm a total idiot but can someone please explain these "rankings" - like are these in order from #1 to #7? If that is the case how do some of these even make sense (W&L last, Swat second to last, etc.)

[Laxattackjack]

Maybe I'm a total idiot but can someone please explain these "rankings" - like are these in order from #1 to #7? If that is the case how do some of these even make sense (W&L last, Swat second to last, etc.)

these are not officially ranked yet. first week release is just alphabetically listed. each group should have seven teams when mondays update comes out, they should be ranked in power rankings order.

[SixBySix]

Maybe I'm a total idiot but can someone please explain these "rankings" - like are these in order from #1 to #7? If that is the case how do some of these even make sense (W&L last, Swat second to last, etc.)

Alphabetical for these first rankings, the next set will be formally numbered by the committee. I think it's reasonable to infer that the last teams in are the ones that are different from the last write up with the possible exception of Region I (i.e. Endicott, Vassar, Stevenson, Centre, and Oberlin).

Edit: I should note, my list included 1) all Regionally Ranked teams and 2) teams that I think are in the Pool C mix or are of interest to the board.

[CentennialPundit]

Curious what the nescac cannibalism is going to do for pool c bids. Reminds me of the Ivy League a couple years back.

Any thoughts? I could see a ton of nescac as getting bids or just a couple if this keeps up.

[ah23]

If it's the ranked teams beating each other, I actually think that makes it more likely to result in four NESCAC bids because it adds relevant wins to each of their resumes. If there are upsets...watch out.

Think Tufts and Wesleyan are 100% in, Amherst is probably a lock unless they lose out, and Bowdoin is in a similar but slightly weaker position because they don't have the marquee wins that Wesleyan, Amherst, or...Middlebury do.

I think Middlebury is really interesting; they have great wins at the top of the resume, but they already have six losses. Think their only path is to be 2023 Williams, who got a Pool C bid at 10-7 because of a good overall resume and mostly ranked losses. If Middlebury wins out against Trinity and Williams, wins a first round conference tourney game, and then loses in the conference semis, they'd be...10-7, with three high-quality wins (St. Lawrence, Wesleyan, Amherst), solid resume filler Ws (Trinity, Williams, 1st round opponent), and a bunch of ranked losses. At the very least they'd be in the mix, which is wild given how poorly their season started.

[bonesnjnts]

could substitute Trinity for Wesleyan and up with a similar resume
going to be a fun game today in Hartford

[ToeDipper78]

Don't see NESCAC with 5 bids. Midd and Williams are out unless they win conf tourney. Too many L's, even if quality. Glad we can stop the Trin Trin talk now.
Liberty also will place 4. Union will be in.
Centennial will get 2 bids (Dickinson + Swat) unless Getty or Muhl wins conf tourney to make it 3.

[Laxattackjack]

If it's the ranked teams beating each other, I actually think that makes it more likely to result in four NESCAC bids because it adds relevant wins to each of their resumes. If there are upsets...watch out.

Think Tufts and Wesleyan are 100% in, Amherst is probably a lock unless they lose out, and Bowdoin is in a similar but slightly weaker position because they don't have the marquee wins that Wesleyan, Amherst, or...Middlebury do.

I think Middlebury is really interesting; they have great wins at the top of the resume, but they already have six losses. Think their only path is to be 2023 Williams, who got a Pool C bid at 10-7 because of a good overall resume and mostly ranked losses. If Middlebury wins out against Trinity and Williams, wins a first round conference tourney game, and then loses in the conference semis, they'd be...10-7, with three high-quality wins (St. Lawrence, Wesleyan, Amherst), solid resume filler Ws (Trinity, Williams, 1st round opponent), and a bunch of ranked losses. At the very least they'd be in the mix, which is wild given how poorly their season started.

amherst has 5 losses. and unless they win the conference, they end with a minimum of 6 losses. that is not a lock.
there are only 10 at large teams. unless something crazy happens, the following teams get in before a 6 loss amherst

salisbury
CNU
at least two from Liberty, probably 3
at least one from Centennial. 2 if GBurg wins
at least two from NESCAC
one from ODAC

that is 9 locks before Amherst is even considered
i would say that Amherst needs to at minimum, have a close game in the finals to be considered.

[ah23]

at least two from NESCAC

I assume Bowdoin would be the second team you have ahead of Amherst for Pool C? I feel like I’m in the minority in having Amherst (slightly) ahead of them, but…I think Amherst has the best pair of wins of any team in the country and that’s hard to look past.

I will say: raw number of losses isn’t relevant for teams with enough good wins. Last season, three teams with 6+ losses got Pool C bids: Lynchburg (13-6), Union (11-6) and Williams (10-7). Amherst also made it at 11-5. In 2022, four did: Amherst (10-6), Gettysburg (12-7), Roanoke (13-6), and W&L (12-6). Two more teams got Pool C bids with five losses - RPI and Wesleyan.

[Laxattackjack]

at least two from NESCAC

I assume Bowdoin would be the second team you have ahead of Amherst for Pool C? I feel like I’m in the minority in having Amherst (slightly) ahead of them, but…I think Amherst has the best pair of wins of any team in the country and that’s hard to look past.

I will say: raw number of losses isn’t relevant for teams with enough good wins. Last season, three teams with 6+ losses got Pool C bids: Lynchburg (13-6), Union (11-6) and Williams (10-7). Amherst also made it at 11-5. In 2022, four did: Amherst (10-6), Gettysburg (12-7), Roanoke (13-6), and W&L (12-6). Two more teams got Pool C bids with five losses - RPI and Wesleyan.

i have tufts, wesleyan, bowdoin and middlebury ahead of amherst at this point. all have beat Amherst head to head. and all have better resumes.

as for the number of losses. past years are past years. this year, there are at least 9 other teams with letter records and better resumes. and if Amherst doesn’t make the NESCAC finals, they won’t have much of an argument.