WLAX Bracketology

[laxdadpat]

Just looked at Army's record, not deserving an invitation. Loyola and navy should both get in.

[Bystanders]

Ivy League has to get three teams in this year. Ex Columbia, the other seven teams are 33-8 out of league with no terrible losses (Duke and Penn St - not great). But the other six losses are Michigan (by 1), UVA (2x), Stony Brook, Notre Dame (by 1), and Florida.

[RollTheCrease]

Fairfield has only played 1 Patriot League team this year. It was Holy Cross and they lost. That one hurts.

I was one to pump the brakes on Army and Navy before the season, but both teams have put together very impressive seasons so far. Loyola, Army and Navy are deserving of making the final 28.

Loyola yes, Navy a yes right now, but no way for Army. They don’t have any good wins and actually lost to Sienna.

[spidey44]

Welp Penn State made me eat crow and Clemson tried!

[610Lax]

Fairfield has only played 1 Patriot League team this year. It was Holy Cross and they lost. That one hurts.

I was one to pump the brakes on Army and Navy before the season, but both teams have put together very impressive seasons so far. Loyola, Army and Navy are deserving of making the final 28.

Loyola yes, Navy a yes right now, but no way for Army. They don’t have any good wins and actually lost to Sienna.

Not seeing how Navy is an automatic bid. They lost to Drexel who Fairfield beat by 7. They have a week 1 win against Duke who many would consider down this year and a win against Richmond who hasn't beat a team in top 50. At some point who you play this year has to matter and not what you've done historically.

[laxfan9999]

Fairfield is not losing the MAAC. I watched them play Niagara last weekend and they were the better team all over the field and I don’t think they had a great first half. Niagara didn’t get a shot on goal for over a quarter. Fairfield toyed with them like they do all the teams in the MAAC. Pencil them in the tournament now.

[laxmenow]

Here is my weekly update with WLAX bracketology as of Tue Mar 26: (I have updated some of the AQs based on eligibility for new D1 teams)

1 Maryland (Big 10 AQ)
2 Northwestern (At large)
3 ND (ACC AQ)
4 Boston College (At large)
5 Syracuse (At large)
6 Loyola (Patriot AQ)
7 Michigan (At large) (holding off on a higher seed until we see a win vs MD or NW)
8 Virginia (At large)
James Madison (AAC AQ)
North Carolina (At large)
Johns Hopkins (At large)
Florida (At large)
Stony Brook (CAA AQ)
Denver (Big East AQ)
Penn (Ivy AQ)
Yale (At large)
Stanford (PAC 10 AQ)
Penn State (At large)
Princeton (At large)
Richmond (A 10 AQ)
USC (At large)
Navy (At large)
Harvard (At large) NOTE: last at large slot, all teams below are AQs from one bid conferences
Fairfield (MAAC AQ)
Albany (America East AQ)
Mercer (Big South AQ)
Jacksonville (A Sun AQ)
Sacred Heart (NEC AQ)
E Michigan (MAC AQ)

Last three in:
- USC (will need to beat Colorado, and a win vs Stanford would clinch it for them)
- Navy (W's vs Richmond and Duke, is that enough?)
- Harvard (still to be seen if the Crimson or Brown can win enough in the Ivy to break through)
First three out:
- Brown (they have a gauntlet of an Ivy schedule remaining)
- Colorado (I dont see three Pac-12 teams making the tourney)
- Clemson
Next four out:
- Rutgers
- Drexel
- Cornell (I have them ahead of Dartmouth based on head to head and quality of losses)
- Dartmouth

[flushlax77]

Here is my weekly update with WLAX bracketology as of Tue Mar 26: (I have updated some of the AQs based on eligibility for new D1 teams)

1 Maryland (Big 10 AQ)
2 Northwestern (At large)
3 ND (ACC AQ)
4 Boston College (At large)
5 Syracuse (At large)
6 Loyola (Patriot AQ)
7 Michigan (At large) (holding off on a higher seed until we see a win vs MD or NW)
8 Virginia (At large)
James Madison (AAC AQ)
North Carolina (At large)
Johns Hopkins (At large)
Florida (At large)
Stony Brook (CAA AQ)
Denver (Big East AQ)
Penn (Ivy AQ)
Yale (At large)
Stanford (PAC 10 AQ)
Penn State (At large)
Princeton (At large)
Richmond (A 10 AQ)
USC (At large)
Navy (At large)
Harvard (At large) NOTE: last at large slot, all teams below are AQs from one bid conferences
Fairfield (MAAC AQ)
Albany (America East AQ)
Mercer (Big South AQ)
Jacksonville (A Sun AQ)
Sacred Heart (NEC AQ)
E Michigan (MAC AQ)

Last three in:
- USC (will need to beat Colorado, and a win vs Stanford would clinch it for them)
- Navy (W's vs Richmond and Duke, is that enough?)
- Harvard (still to be seen if the Crimson or Brown can win enough in the Ivy to break through)
First three out:
- Brown (they have a gauntlet of an Ivy schedule remaining)
- Colorado (I dont see three Pac-12 teams making the tourney)
- Clemson
Next four out:
- Rutgers
- Drexel
- Cornell (I have them ahead of Dartmouth based on head to head and quality of losses)
- Dartmouth

This is awesome. Agree with most! Think the Ivy League is highly regarded in this point. Once they start beating up on each other, there RPI will start to go down. Interested to see if they will be a 3 team league or not.

Don’t see Brown or Harvard making it. That Duke loss on the road for Harvard and Brown beating Harvard , makes it tough, especially with their strength of schedule compared to Colorado, Clemson, Rutgers group. Committee will look at Drexel probably next for the win at PSU. Could make an argument for Drexel over USC

[Womenslaxxfan]

Here is my weekly update with WLAX bracketology as of Tue Mar 26: (I have updated some of the AQs based on eligibility for new D1 teams)

1 Maryland (Big 10 AQ)
2 Northwestern (At large)
3 ND (ACC AQ)
4 Boston College (At large)
5 Syracuse (At large)
6 Loyola (Patriot AQ)
7 Michigan (At large) (holding off on a higher seed until we see a win vs MD or NW)
8 Virginia (At large)
James Madison (AAC AQ)
North Carolina (At large)
Johns Hopkins (At large)
Florida (At large)
Stony Brook (CAA AQ)
Denver (Big East AQ)
Penn (Ivy AQ)
Yale (At large)
Stanford (PAC 10 AQ)
Penn State (At large)
Princeton (At large)
Richmond (A 10 AQ)
USC (At large)
Navy (At large)
Harvard (At large) NOTE: last at large slot, all teams below are AQs from one bid conferences
Fairfield (MAAC AQ)
Albany (America East AQ)
Mercer (Big South AQ)
Jacksonville (A Sun AQ)
Sacred Heart (NEC AQ)
E Michigan (MAC AQ)

Last three in:
- USC (will need to beat Colorado, and a win vs Stanford would clinch it for them)
- Navy (W's vs Richmond and Duke, is that enough?)
- Harvard (still to be seen if the Crimson or Brown can win enough in the Ivy to break through)
First three out:
- Brown (they have a gauntlet of an Ivy schedule remaining)
- Colorado (I dont see three Pac-12 teams making the tourney)
- Clemson
Next four out:
- Rutgers
- Drexel
- Cornell (I have them ahead of Dartmouth based on head to head and quality of losses)
- Dartmouth

Are you attempting to seed this? Because unless bc wins out, they won’t have an rpi high enough for a 4 seed. Neither wiil notre dame for 3 seed….

[laxmenow]

Yes, that’s my current assessment re seeding. I also agree re needing to win out, especially for ND. A lot will change in these coming weeks - will be fun to watch!!

[flushlax77]

Ivy League has to get three teams in this year. Ex Columbia, the other seven teams are 33-8 out of league with no terrible losses (Duke and Penn St - not great). But the other six losses are Michigan (by 1), UVA (2x), Stony Brook, Notre Dame (by 1), and Florida.

I have been going back and forth on if I have been a hater or not on the Ivy and if my eye test is telling me that they are a 4 bid league or not. Especially with bracketology by our own poster having 4 teams making it and 7 of 8 teams involved in the big picture. I decided to redo a thought process as we head into the meat of the Ivy season

Penn- Not going to bother with the exercise since we know that they they are at least an AL with win over Hopkins. Excited to watch them vs Maryland tonight. LOVE Penn in this game. IF Penn can win against Maryland, it will raise the profile of all Ivy teams.

Yale- Not going to bother with the exercise since we know that they are at least an AL with win over Stanford and great winning percentage. BC game is going to be a fun one in a few weeks!

Princeton- Losses: Virginia, Yale, Florida (26-4 combined record). Wins: Penn State, Rutgers, Monmouth, Jacksonville, Cornell (19-23 combined and 6 of those wins coming from Cornell which you can see below is against an easy schedule). I still think they have work to do but they have opportunities to get there

Harvard- Losses: Duke and Penn (14-6). Wins: Brown (8 of the wins but see below), Colgate, Georgetown, VCU, High Point (19-30).

Major win over Brown so they have the tiebreaker. Duke loss has major implications because they are several other at large candidates (Navy, Clemson, possibly Louisville) have wins over the Blue Devils. They need to beat Cornell and Dartmouth to stay in consideration and knock off one of the top 3 to have any sort of chance.

Brown-Losses: Harvard and Notre Dame (14-4 combined). Wins: UMASS, Albany, Sacred Heart, Bryant, Boston U, Umass-Lowell (what a master class in scheduling wins for them!) and Stetson. (35-38)

Browns loss to Harvard is huge for the upcoming slate of Ivy games as they jockey for position to get into the Ivy tournament.

Cornell- Losses: Virginia, Princeton, Penn State (20-9). Wins :Cal, Lemoyne, Dartmouth, Columbia, Binghamton, and Colgate (21-35). Winning the games they should and losing the games that they should. Penn State loss really hurts. Not sure if they make the Ivy League tourney, much less the NCAA tournament

Cornell has Syracuse, Harvard, Penn, Brown, and Yale left. They control their own destiny in regards to the Ivy League tournament. Need to beat one of Syracuse/Penn/Yale and win against Brown and Harvard to get an at large to the NCAA tournament. The Colgate game from yesterday does not inspire much confidence…

Dartmouth- Losses: Stony Brook, Cornell, Yale (22-5). Wins: USC, San Diego State, Umass, Vermont, Siena (18-24)Dartmouth looks the best in this exercise with the win over USC. However, they have lost to Cornell and they have lost to Yale which puts them behind the 8-ball in terms of making the Ivy League tournament. Their win over USC is the most impressive OOC win of the teams battling for the 3rd at large

They have: Harvard, Princeton, Penn, Brown still to go. Need to get at least 2 and maybe 3 of those in order to make the Ivy League tournament.

So after laying that all out, I could see the Ivy League getting 3 bids (Penn, Yale, and Princeton/Harvard). Not sure if Brown or Cornell will have enough in the tank to get up there.

[laxmenow]

A lot of you are making strong cases for rankings under the polls thread, I've tried to consider those inputs along with a few personal opinions to continue putting this in "bracketology" thinking, with an emphasis on the last ones in as well as the seed lines. I've also tried to include a lot of the relevant head to head and remaining game info in one place:

WLAX Bracketology Tuesday, April 2nd
1 Northwestern (Big 10 AQ)
2 Notre Dame (ACC AQ)
3 Syracuse (At large)
4 Maryland (At large)
5 Boston College (At large)
6 Loyola (Patriot AQ)
7 Penn (Ivy League AQ)
8 Michigan (At large)
Virginia (At large)
Johns Hopkins (At large)
North Carolina (At large)
James Madison (AAC AQ)
Florida (At large)
Stony Brook (CAA AQ)
Denver (Big East AQ)
Yale (At large)
Stanford (PAC 10 AQ)
Princeton (At large)
Richmond (A 10 AQ)
Penn State (At large)
Clemson (At large)
USC (At large)
Fairfield (MAAC AQ)
Harvard (At large)
Albany (America East AQ)
Mercer (Big South AQ)
Jacksonville (A Sun AQ)
Sacred Heart (NEC AQ)
E Michigan (MAC AQ)

Last three in:
- Clemson (win vs Duke, tier 1 losses to ND, UVA, NC, bad Lou loss), BC, Syr, Pitt remain
- USC (no top 30 wins, losses to NW, Mich, Dart) all about Stan, Colo games
- Harvard (win vs Brown, losses to Penn, Duke) Yale and Princeton remaining
First three out:
- Colorado (beat PSU, losses to NW, Mich, Stan) if lose to Den, vs USC to make tourney?
- Drexel (beat PSU, lost to MD, Penn, 12-5 Fairfield loss hurt) Stony Brook remaining
- Duke (UVA and Harv wins, losses to Clemson, JHU, BC, Syr, Navy) do they need to beat ND or NC to get in?
Next group out:
- Brown (no top 30 wins, will need to take Ivy games)
- Rutgers (no top 30 wins, will need to upset in B1G)
- Navy (beat Duke, loss to St Joes damaging, no top games remaining)

It feels easier to make the case for why most / all of these teams won't make it, then who should. Maybe a few "upsets" will help clear the path forward. Who did I miss that you would include in any of the groups above?

Seeds commentary (w/l against consensus top 16)
NW: 5 wins (Syr, BC, JHU, Den, NC) vs 1 loss (ND), still to play MD, Mich
ND: 3 wins (NW,BC,NC) vs 2 losses (Syr, UVA) no top 16 games left
SYR: 4 wins (ND,Loy,UVA,NC) vs 3 losses (NW,MD,SB) BC game remaining
MD: 3 wins (Syr, Mich, Den) vs 2 losses (Penn, Fla) NW and JHU remaining
BC: 1 win (NC) vs 2 losses (NW,ND) lost to top two, getting some eye test benefit, Syr game a must for home seed
LOY: 2 wins (JHU, Fla) vs 1 loss (Syr), Penn remaining
PENN: 2 wins (MD, JHU) vs 1 loss (Mich) Loyola, Yale remaining
MICH: 2 wins (Penn, Den) vs 1 loss(MD) NW, JHU remaining

There is clearly more to consider, e.g. w/l vs top 30, bad losses etc, but this to me is a first order input for considering seeds. Kudos to Syracuse and NW for top end schedule difficulty!

[hmmm]

A lot of you are making strong cases for rankings under the polls thread, I've tried to consider those inputs along with a few personal opinions to continue putting this in "bracketology" thinking, with an emphasis on the last ones in as well as the seed lines. I've also tried to include a lot of the relevant head to head and remaining game info in one place:

WLAX Bracketology Tuesday, April 2nd
1 Northwestern (Big 10 AQ)
2 Notre Dame (ACC AQ)
3 Syracuse (At large)
4 Maryland (At large)
5 Boston College (At large)
6 Loyola (Patriot AQ)
7 Penn (Ivy League AQ)
8 Michigan (At large)
Virginia (At large)
Johns Hopkins (At large)
North Carolina (At large)
James Madison (AAC AQ)
Florida (At large)
Stony Brook (CAA AQ)
Denver (Big East AQ)
Yale (At large)
Stanford (PAC 10 AQ)
Princeton (At large)
Richmond (A 10 AQ)
Penn State (At large)
Clemson (At large)
USC (At large)
Fairfield (MAAC AQ)
Harvard (At large)
Albany (America East AQ)
Mercer (Big South AQ)
Jacksonville (A Sun AQ)
Sacred Heart (NEC AQ)
E Michigan (MAC AQ)

Last three in:
- Clemson (win vs Duke, tier 1 losses to ND, UVA, NC, bad Lou loss), BC, Syr, Pitt remain
- USC (no top 30 wins, losses to NW, Mich, Dart) all about Stan, Colo games
- Harvard (win vs Brown, losses to Penn, Duke) Yale and Princeton remaining
First three out:
- Colorado (beat PSU, losses to NW, Mich, Stan) if lose to Den, vs USC to make tourney?
- Drexel (beat PSU, lost to MD, Penn, 12-5 Fairfield loss hurt) Stony Brook remaining
- Duke (UVA and Harv wins, losses to Clemson, JHU, BC, Syr, Navy) do they need to beat ND or NC to get in?
Next group out:
- Brown (no top 30 wins, will need to take Ivy games)
- Rutgers (no top 30 wins, will need to upset in B1G)
- Navy (beat Duke, loss to St Joes damaging, no top games remaining)

It feels easier to make the case for why most / all of these teams won't make it, then who should. Maybe a few "upsets" will help clear the path forward. Who did I miss that you would include in any of the groups above?

Seeds commentary (w/l against consensus top 16)
NW: 5 wins (Syr, BC, JHU, Den, NC) vs 1 loss (ND), still to play MD, Mich
ND: 3 wins (NW,BC,NC) vs 2 losses (Syr, UVA) no top 16 games left
SYR: 4 wins (ND,Loy,UVA,NC) vs 3 losses (NW,MD,SB) BC game remaining
MD: 3 wins (Syr, Mich, Den) vs 2 losses (Penn, Fla) NW and JHU remaining
BC: 1 win (NC) vs 2 losses (NW,ND) lost to top two, getting some eye test benefit, Syr game a must for home seed
LOY: 2 wins (JHU, Fla) vs 1 loss (Syr), Penn remaining
PENN: 2 wins (MD, JHU) vs 1 loss (Mich) Loyola, Yale remaining
MICH: 2 wins (Penn, Den) vs 1 loss(MD) NW, JHU remaining

There is clearly more to consider, e.g. w/l vs top 30, bad losses etc, but this to me is a first order input for considering seeds. Kudos to Syracuse and NW for top end schedule difficulty!

Your rankings are quite a bit different than the Lax Reference Formula. Will be interesting to see how it shakes out.

What has BC done to warrant being seeded at this point? Their best two wins are UNC(RPI 17) and Duke(RPI 30).

PSU is going to need another upset if not several to even be eligible. Drexel beat PSU and Navy and has an RPI of 15. Yes, they lost to Fairfield, but Fairfield is the #4 RPI team in the country right now. No way a team with their record and a top 15 RPI doesn't get into the field.

[hmmm]

I'll give it a shot. My clueless prognostication as of 4/3(not where I think it will finish):
1 Northwestern - Big Ten AQ
2 Syracuse - ACC AQ
3 Maryland
4 Penn - Ivy AQ
5 Notre Dame
6 Michigan
7 Loyola - Patriot AQ
8 Johns Hopkins - Deserves this over BC right now with wins over SB and JMU which are better wins than UNC and Duke. Hop RPI = 5. BC RPI = 18. Hop SOS = 5 BC SOS = 22. Hopkins is 3-2 vs RPI top 20. BC is 1-2 vs RPI top 20. Let me state that I believe BC is the better team but teams aren't seeded by eye test. Every metric the committee uses leans towards Hop at the moment.
Boston College
Yale
UVA
Florida - AAC AQ
Stony Brook - CAA AQ
Denver - Big East AQ
JMU
UNC
Stanford - Pac 12 AQ
Fairfield - MAAC AQ
Drexel
USC
Duke
Princeton
PSU
Albany - America East AQ
Liberty - ASun AQ
Richmond - A10 AQ
Mercer - Big South AQ
E Michigan - MAC AQ
Scared Heart - NEC AQ

Last 3 in:
Duke - While they lost H2H to Clemson, H2H is way down the list of criteria. Clemson has a slightly higher RPI but the strength of record and the bad loss factor(Clemson losing to #45 RPI Louisville) make Duke the better selection in their eyes. Duke's best win is UVA while Clemson's best win is Duke. Have to also include the save Kimel's job factor
Princeton - Hanging on by a thread here. Going 2-2 against Penn, Loyola, MD, Harvard would probably make them a lock.
PSU - They have work to do to stay eligible for the tournament but if they get eligible they'll have wins over NU and either Michigan/MD/Hop. Win over NU sneaking them in at this point as well as the save Missy's job factor

First 3 out:
Clemson - Worse resume than last year with loss to Louisville. OOC schedule is irrelevant for them. Only one decent win over Duke. Louisville loss is a killer. They need to beat Syracuse or BC in next 2 weeks or go on a run to semis in ACC tournament.
Holy Cross - Wins over Fairfield and UMass. RPI at 24. rSOR at 23. If they beat Navy and Army they have a real good chance to get in.
Harvard - No big wins on their resume but no bad losses either. Games against Yale and Princeton will determine things for them.

[laxdadpat]

I'll give it a shot. My clueless prognostication as of 4/3(not where I think it will finish):
1 Northwestern - Big Ten AQ
2 Syracuse - ACC AQ
3 Maryland
4 Penn - Ivy AQ
5 Notre Dame
6 Michigan
7 Loyola - Patriot AQ
8 Johns Hopkins - Deserves this over BC right now with wins over SB and JMU which are better wins than UNC and Duke. Hop RPI = 5. BC RPI = 18. Hop SOS = 5 BC SOS = 22. Hopkins is 3-2 vs RPI top 20. BC is 1-2 vs RPI top 20. Let me state that I believe BC is the better team but teams aren't seeded by eye test. Every metric the committee uses leans towards Hop at the moment.
Boston College
Yale
UVA
Florida - AAC AQ
Stony Brook - CAA AQ
Denver - Big East AQ
JMU
UNC
Stanford - Pac 12 AQ
Fairfield - MAAC AQ
Drexel
USC
Duke
Princeton
PSU
Albany - America East AQ
Liberty - ASun AQ
Richmond - A10 AQ
Mercer - Big South AQ
E Michigan - MAC AQ
Scared Heart - NEC AQ

Last 3 in:
Duke - While they lost H2H to Clemson, H2H is way down the list of criteria. Clemson has a slightly higher RPI but the strength of record and the bad loss factor(Clemson losing to #45 RPI Louisville) make Duke the better selection in their eyes. Duke's best win is UVA while Clemson's best win is Duke. Have to also include the save Kimel's job factor
Princeton - Hanging on by a thread here. Going 2-2 against Penn, Loyola, MD, Harvard would probably make them a lock.
PSU - They have work to do to stay eligible for the tournament but if they get eligible they'll have wins over NU and either Michigan/MD/Hop. Win over NU sneaking them in at this point as well as the save Missy's job factor

First 3 out:
Clemson - Worse resume than last year with loss to Louisville. OOC schedule is irrelevant for them. Only one decent win over Duke. Louisville loss is a killer. They need to beat Syracuse or BC in next 2 weeks or go on a run to semis in ACC tournament.
Holy Cross - Wins over Fairfield and UMass. RPI at 24. rSOR at 23. If they beat Navy and Army they have a real good chance to get in.
Harvard - No big wins on their resume but no bad losses either. Games against Yale and Princeton will determine things for them.

There are 3 open spots as I look at hmmm's list. great list!

PSU will not qualify, 1 more big10 upset will get them in, but tey are not beating Hopkins for a bid.

USC had to beat Stanford to get a bid. Best wins against Army and Temple. Lost to Dartmouth. Not happening.

Duke losses to Navy and Clemson. They are clinging to that Virginia win. A Louisville loss should open the door for Clemson or Louisville.

Who do replace those 3 spots with, I guess (1) Clemson will show enough in the next month.
(2)Colorado gets PSU spot. Beat PSU and Louisville. Lost to Stanford, no issue.
(3) Can we flip a 4 sided coin for the last spot?? Harvard beat Brown so give it to Crimson. Eye test says Brown, but they lost to Harvard.

[spidey44]

There are 3 open spots as I look at hmmm's list. great list!

PSU will not qualify, 1 more big10 upset will get them in, but tey are not beating Hopkins for a bid.

USC had to beat Stanford to get a bid. Best wins against Army and Temple. Lost to Dartmouth. Not happening.

Duke losses to Navy and Clemson. They are clinging to that Virginia win. A Louisville loss should open the door for Clemson or Louisville.

Who do replace those 3 spots with, I guess (1) Clemson will show enough in the next month.
(2)Colorado gets PSU spot. Beat PSU and Louisville. Lost to Stanford, no issue.
(3) Can we flip a 4 sided coin for the last spot?? Harvard beat Brown so give it to Crimson. Eye test says Brown, but they lost to Harvard.

Full disclosure, MD fan... BUT I think PSU beats MD IF they can score. MD's offense is soooo not impressive that I just feel like PSU can have another good game and steal one here. That said, if they can't, I don't see them beating UM or Hop either.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

Penn State is a wild card. Never know which team will show up. They've defeated Maryland 3 of the last 4 times they've played--albeit all at Panzer, but still. I wouldn't cross them off as a possibility to win against anyone down the stretch. You can just never tell with this mercurial team.

[LaxDadMax]

I'll give it a shot. My clueless prognostication as of 4/3(not where I think it will finish):
1 Northwestern - Big Ten AQ
2 Syracuse - ACC AQ
3 Maryland
4 Penn - Ivy AQ
5 Notre Dame
6 Michigan
7 Loyola - Patriot AQ
8 Johns Hopkins - Deserves this over BC right now with wins over SB and JMU which are better wins than UNC and Duke. Hop RPI = 5. BC RPI = 18. Hop SOS = 5 BC SOS = 22. Hopkins is 3-2 vs RPI top 20. BC is 1-2 vs RPI top 20. Let me state that I believe BC is the better team but teams aren't seeded by eye test. Every metric the committee uses leans towards Hop at the moment.
Boston College
Yale
UVA
Florida - AAC AQ
Stony Brook - CAA AQ
Denver - Big East AQ
JMU
UNC
Stanford - Pac 12 AQ
Fairfield - MAAC AQ
Drexel
USC
Duke
Princeton
PSU
Albany - America East AQ
Liberty - ASun AQ
Richmond - A10 AQ
Mercer - Big South AQ
E Michigan - MAC AQ
Scared Heart - NEC AQ

Last 3 in:
Duke - While they lost H2H to Clemson, H2H is way down the list of criteria. Clemson has a slightly higher RPI but the strength of record and the bad loss factor(Clemson losing to #45 RPI Louisville) make Duke the better selection in their eyes. Duke's best win is UVA while Clemson's best win is Duke. Have to also include the save Kimel's job factor
Princeton - Hanging on by a thread here. Going 2-2 against Penn, Loyola, MD, Harvard would probably make them a lock.
PSU - They have work to do to stay eligible for the tournament but if they get eligible they'll have wins over NU and either Michigan/MD/Hop. Win over NU sneaking them in at this point as well as the save Missy's job factor

First 3 out:
Clemson - Worse resume than last year with loss to Louisville. OOC schedule is irrelevant for them. Only one decent win over Duke. Louisville loss is a killer. They need to beat Syracuse or BC in next 2 weeks or go on a run to semis in ACC tournament.
Holy Cross - Wins over Fairfield and UMass. RPI at 24. rSOR at 23. If they beat Navy and Army they have a real good chance to get in.
Harvard - No big wins on their resume but no bad losses either. Games against Yale and Princeton will determine things for them.

There are 3 open spots as I look at hmmm's list. great list!

PSU will not qualify, 1 more big10 upset will get them in, but tey are not beating Hopkins for a bid.

USC had to beat Stanford to get a bid. Best wins against Army and Temple. Lost to Dartmouth. Not happening.

Duke losses to Navy and Clemson. They are clinging to that Virginia win. A Louisville loss should open the door for Clemson or Louisville.

Who do replace those 3 spots with, I guess (1) Clemson will show enough in the next month.
(2)Colorado gets PSU spot. Beat PSU and Louisville. Lost to Stanford, no issue.
(3) Can we flip a 4 sided coin for the last spot?? Harvard beat Brown so give it to Crimson. Eye test says Brown, but they lost to Harvard.

Remember USC gets 2 shots at stanford regular season and tourney. Worst case scenario for some time is Stan wins reg season and USC wins tourney effectively stealing a bid.

Remember Pac-12 tourney is at LA memorial coliseuum which is a horrible stadium. Massive HFA for womens of troy.

[fraudwatch]

No Navy? Are we 100 percent counting them out? The rankings sure aren't. Lost to Drexel (an unranked team) nothing changes and then lost to St. Joes (unranked team) and barely drop. The rankings need to take another look. I could see Penn State sneaking in there, beating Northwestern is pretty impressive, but can they keep it going...ohio state... Clemson is a team of transfers that will not be in the tournament, great facility though.

[Womenslaxxfan]

No Navy? Are we 100 percent counting them out? The rankings sure aren't. Lost to Drexel (an unranked team) nothing changes and then lost to St. Joes (unranked team) and barely drop. The rankings need to take another look. I could see Penn State sneaking in there, beating Northwestern is pretty impressive, but can they keep it going...ohio state... Clemson is a team of transfers that will not be in the tournament, great facility though.

What rankings are you talking about? Polls don’t matter at at all for tournament selection. Rpi is biggest criteria. And navy sits WELL outside the cut line with a current rpi of 35–which is unlikely to improve given the only strong team they have left on their schedule is Loyola if they get them in the patriot tourney.
Navy needs to win the aq by beating Loyola in patriot league tourney. Or they will watch the ncaa tourney from home.
As will army.