WLAX Bracketology

[laxmenow]

It seems like a good time to start this, what with us all just finishing making donations to our local NCAA BB pools!
Someone mentioned Duke potentially making the WLAX tournament this year, after they beat Harvard the other day, so I thought I would run through a cut at a bracket. I am not good with graphics, so I am just going to list them 1 -29, highlighting where I believe the last few at large spots will be up for grabs. Something for the experts in the group to improve upon
Bracket guidelines: 29 bids, with 15 AQs and 14 at-large bids:
1) Northwestern (Big 10 AQ)
2) Maryland (At large)
3) Notre Dame (ACC AQ)
4) Boston College (At large)
5) Loyola (Patriot AQ)
6) Michigan (At large)
7) James Madison (AAC AQ)
8) Syracuse (At large)
9) Virginia (At large)
10) North Carolina (At large)
11) Florida (At large)
12) Stony Brook (CAA AQ)
13) Johns Hopkins (At large)
14) Denver (Big East AQ)
15) Penn (Ivy AQ)
16) Yale (At large) I feel like these first 16 have done enough to be highly likely to make it, lots of work required for those below:
17) Stanford (Pac 10 AQ)
18) Navy (At large)
19) Princeton (At large)
20) Richmond (A 10 AQ)
21) For these last three AL slots I think it will come to (in my current order):
22,23) USC, Harvard, Clemson, Penn State, Duke, Brown, Colorado, Rutgers, Drexel, Dartmouth
24) Fairfield (MAAC AQ). ** Note, from this line down, imo these are one bid leagues, no matter who wins the tourney (some above can be steals)
25) Albany (Amer East AQ)
26) Mercer (Big South AQ)
27) Lindenwood (A Sun AQ)
28) Stonehill (NEC AQ)
29) E Michigan (MAC AQ)

[LaxDadMax]

It seems like a good time to start this, what with us all just finishing making donations to our local NCAA BB pools!
Someone mentioned Duke potentially making the WLAX tournament this year, after they beat Harvard the other day, so I thought I would run through a cut at a bracket. I am not good with graphics, so I am just going to list them 1 -29, highlighting where I believe the last few at large spots will be up for grabs. Something for the experts in the group to improve upon
Bracket guidelines: 29 bids, with 15 AQs and 14 at-large bids:
1) Northwestern (Big 10 AQ)
2) Maryland (At large)
3) Notre Dame (ACC AQ)
4) Boston College (At large)
5) Loyola (Patriot AQ)
6) Michigan (At large)
7) James Madison (AAC AQ)
8) Syracuse (At large)
9) Virginia (At large)
10) North Carolina (At large)
11) Florida (At large)
12) Stony Brook (CAA AQ)
13) Johns Hopkins (At large)
14) Denver (Big East AQ)
15) Penn (Ivy AQ)
16) Yale (At large) I feel like these first 16 have done enough to be highly likely to make it, lots of work required for those below:
17) Stanford (Pac 10 AQ)
18) Navy (At large)
19) Princeton (At large)
20) Richmond (A 10 AQ)
21) For these last three AL slots I think it will come to (in my current order):
22,23) USC, Harvard, Clemson, Penn State, Duke, Brown, Colorado, Rutgers, Drexel, Dartmouth
24) Fairfield (MAAC AQ). ** Note, from this line down, imo these are one bid leagues, no matter who wins the tourney (some above can be steals)
25) Albany (Amer East AQ)
26) Mercer (Big South AQ)
27) Lindenwood (A Sun AQ)
28) Stonehill (NEC AQ)
29) E Michigan (MAC AQ)

Awesome work.

Small important not. Lindenwood won't be eligible for the tourney until 2027 due to 4-year transition period (NCAA rules). That said, don't think it impacts list at all since A sun is likely 1 bid conference.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

Small important not. Lindenwood won't be eligible for the tourney until 2027 due to 4-year transition period (NCAA rules). That said, don't think it impacts list at all since A sun is likely 1 bid conference.

Wow--what a raw deal. So even if Lindenwood wins their conference championship they don't go to the Dance? Just a hole where the ASUN representative should be and they fill in with the next-in-line At-Large bid?

[laxmenow]

I would presume the A SUN gets a bid no matter, it just goes to the team that finishes highest in the conf tourney, other than Lindenwood

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

I would presume the A SUN gets a bid no matter, it just goes to the team that finishes highest in the conf tourney, other than Lindenwood

So bogus. Especially coming from D2 up to D1. I wouldn't think the NCAA would have such a stipulation in place. But then again--it is the NCAA.

[LaxDadMax]

I would presume the A SUN gets a bid no matter, it just goes to the team that finishes highest in the conf tourney, other than Lindenwood

I believe Lwood doesn't even participate in the ASUN tourney.

[LaxDadMax]

I would presume the A SUN gets a bid no matter, it just goes to the team that finishes highest in the conf tourney, other than Lindenwood

So bogus. Especially coming from D2 up to D1. I wouldn't think the NCAA would have such a stipulation in place. But then again--it is the NCAA.

The rule makes some sense, but 4 years is ridiculous.

The reason for the rule is that schools don't immediately need to have the fully required resources of Division 1 to start play. (compliance mostly plus some academic stuff). I think a 1 or 2 year period would be more than reasonable.

[spidey44]

I would presume the A SUN gets a bid no matter, it just goes to the team that finishes highest in the conf tourney, other than Lindenwood

So bogus. Especially coming from D2 up to D1. I wouldn't think the NCAA would have such a stipulation in place. But then again--it is the NCAA.

Wouldn't think the NCAA would do such a thing? Have you met them??? JMU football has been ineligible for their conference championship the last two years because dems da rules. So dumb. They make some claim about not wanting every D1AA or D2 school making the jump. How many schools make this move that aren't prepared? Again, so dumb.

[laxdadpat]

How many Ivys get in?? I think the Ivy tourney is a 4 team championship. Penn and Yale are locks. Princeton, Brown, Harvard, Cornell and Dartmouth battling for 2 spots. That may be the most interesting conference this year, drama for most every game going forward. Get out the popcorn!

[laxlaxlax]

How many Ivys get in?? I think the Ivy tourney is a 4 team championship. Penn and Yale are locks. Princeton, Brown, Harvard, Cornell and Dartmouth battling for 2 spots. That may be the most interesting conference this year, drama for most every game going forward. Get out the popcorn!

Agreed - last year it went down to the final day of the regular season to even determine which teams even made the ivy tournament, let alone the NCAA.

I always find checking out lacrosse reference is worthwhile when talking bracketology, it gives a good early read on RPI and also SOS - looks like the current list is accurate as of today 3/21

https://lacrossereference.com/stats/rpi-d1-women/

[MolonLaxe]

Lacrosse is one of the few sports that anyone even cares about the Ivy League.

[610Lax]

It seems like a good time to start this, what with us all just finishing making donations to our local NCAA BB pools!
Someone mentioned Duke potentially making the WLAX tournament this year, after they beat Harvard the other day, so I thought I would run through a cut at a bracket. I am not good with graphics, so I am just going to list them 1 -29, highlighting where I believe the last few at large spots will be up for grabs. Something for the experts in the group to improve upon
Bracket guidelines: 29 bids, with 15 AQs and 14 at-large bids:
1) Northwestern (Big 10 AQ)
2) Maryland (At large)
3) Notre Dame (ACC AQ)
4) Boston College (At large)
5) Loyola (Patriot AQ)
6) Michigan (At large)
7) James Madison (AAC AQ)
8) Syracuse (At large)
9) Virginia (At large)
10) North Carolina (At large)
11) Florida (At large)
12) Stony Brook (CAA AQ)
13) Johns Hopkins (At large)
14) Denver (Big East AQ)
15) Penn (Ivy AQ)
16) Yale (At large) I feel like these first 16 have done enough to be highly likely to make it, lots of work required for those below:
17) Stanford (Pac 10 AQ)
18) Navy (At large)
19) Princeton (At large)
20) Richmond (A 10 AQ)
21) For these last three AL slots I think it will come to (in my current order):
22,23) USC, Harvard, Clemson, Penn State, Duke, Brown, Colorado, Rutgers, Drexel, Dartmouth
24) Fairfield (MAAC AQ). ** Note, from this line down, imo these are one bid leagues, no matter who wins the tourney (some above can be steals)
25) Albany (Amer East AQ)
26) Mercer (Big South AQ)
27) Lindenwood (A Sun AQ)
28) Stonehill (NEC AQ)
29) E Michigan (MAC AQ)

Nice work and good list. Think you're selling the MAAC a little short though. They have a winning record vs the Big East, Patriot and A-10 while also being .500 vs the Ivy. If Niagara wins their tournament I don't think you can leave Fairfield out.

[spidey44]

21) For these last three AL slots I think it will come to (in my current order):
22,23) USC, Harvard, Clemson, Penn State, Duke, Brown, Colorado, Rutgers, Drexel, Dartmouth

Some thoughts on these AL picks.
Penn State will end the season at 7-8 unless they can steal a win vs NW, MD, JHU, or Michigan - they won't.
Duke comes down to the Louisville game to see if they can be above .500. That said, their SOS is not great. They don't have a win against a tournament team.
Clemson has head to head against Duke so if it comes down to it, don't think both will get in. Clemson will finish above .500, but the only potential tourney team they have a win against, is Mercer currently. They'll finish 10-6, but again, no good wins really, and they'll end up 3-6 in conference.
USC should win out except for Stanford (maybe Colorado??). Think they have a good shot at the AL bid.
If Colorado can beat USC, they'll get it over USC, but doubt both get in. They don't have any "bad" losses thus far.
Haven't seem much of the Ivies to comment, but the more I look at the AL list, the more I don't like any of these teams besides USC and Colorado lol. Clemson may sneak in on hype. Rutgers should get to .500, but lost to Penn State.

Anyway, non-AQs will be on the edge of their seats in a month or so...

[LaxDadMax]

21) For these last three AL slots I think it will come to (in my current order):
22,23) USC, Harvard, Clemson, Penn State, Duke, Brown, Colorado, Rutgers, Drexel, Dartmouth

Some thoughts on these AL picks.
Penn State will end the season at 7-8 unless they can steal a win vs NW, MD, JHU, or Michigan - they won't.
Duke comes down to the Louisville game to see if they can be above .500. That said, their SOS is not great. They don't have a win against a tournament team.
Clemson has head to head against Duke so if it comes down to it, don't think both will get in. Clemson will finish above .500, but the only potential tourney team they have a win against, is Mercer currently. They'll finish 10-6, but again, no good wins really, and they'll end up 3-6 in conference.
USC should win out except for Stanford (maybe Colorado??). Think they have a good shot at the AL bid.
If Colorado can beat USC, they'll get it over USC, but doubt both get in. They don't have any "bad" losses thus far.
Haven't seem much of the Ivies to comment, but the more I look at the AL list, the more I don't like any of these teams besides USC and Colorado lol. Clemson may sneak in on hype. Rutgers should get to .500, but lost to Penn State.

Anyway, non-AQs will be on the edge of their seats in a month or so...

If USC wins pac-whatever, do you think stanford gets an AL bid? not sure stanford's win against colorado will be enough.

[laxdadpat]

It seems like a good time to start this, what with us all just finishing making donations to our local NCAA BB pools!
Someone mentioned Duke potentially making the WLAX tournament this year, after they beat Harvard the other day, so I thought I would run through a cut at a bracket. I am not good with graphics, so I am just going to list them 1 -29, highlighting where I believe the last few at large spots will be up for grabs. Something for the experts in the group to improve upon
Bracket guidelines: 29 bids, with 15 AQs and 14 at-large bids:
1) Northwestern (Big 10 AQ)
2) Maryland (At large)
3) Notre Dame (ACC AQ)
4) Boston College (At large)
5) Loyola (Patriot AQ)
6) Michigan (At large)
7) James Madison (AAC AQ)
8) Syracuse (At large)
9) Virginia (At large)
10) North Carolina (At large)
11) Florida (At large)
12) Stony Brook (CAA AQ)
13) Johns Hopkins (At large)
14) Denver (Big East AQ)
15) Penn (Ivy AQ)
16) Yale (At large) I feel like these first 16 have done enough to be highly likely to make it, lots of work required for those below:
17) Stanford (Pac 10 AQ)
18) Navy (At large)
19) Princeton (At large)
20) Richmond (A 10 AQ)
21) For these last three AL slots I think it will come to (in my current order):
22,23) USC, Harvard, Clemson, Penn State, Duke, Brown, Colorado, Rutgers, Drexel, Dartmouth
24) Fairfield (MAAC AQ). ** Note, from this line down, imo these are one bid leagues, no matter who wins the tourney (some above can be steals)
25) Albany (Amer East AQ)
26) Mercer (Big South AQ)
27) Lindenwood (A Sun AQ)
28) Stonehill (NEC AQ)
29) E Michigan (MAC AQ)

Nice work and good list. Think you're selling the MAAC a little short though. They have a winning record vs the Big East, Patriot and A-10 while also being .500 vs the Ivy. If Niagara wins their tournament I don't think you can leave Fairfield out.

Fairfield has gotten some justified praise this year with some good wins. They would be a tough opening matchup nobody would want to see. If they can't beat Niagara in conference championship, they don't get in the tourney. The conference championship games of the MAC, NEC, A SUN, Big South, Amer East and MAAC are essentially the opening round of the national tourney. Win and you continue, lose and go home. There can be a real argument that the A10 champ in the only deserving team to make the national tourney this year.

[laxdadpat]

Denver is the only Big East team making national tourney as well.

[LaxDadMax]

Denver is the only Big East team making national tourney as well.

Likely. But if Denver (or stony brook) get shocked in their conference tourney, they will still make the ncaa tourney.

The 6 conferences mentioned don’t have a single team who qualifies on their own

[laxreference]

How many Ivys get in?? I think the Ivy tourney is a 4 team championship. Penn and Yale are locks. Princeton, Brown, Harvard, Cornell and Dartmouth battling for 2 spots. That may be the most interesting conference this year, drama for most every game going forward. Get out the popcorn!

Agreed - last year it went down to the final day of the regular season to even determine which teams even made the ivy tournament, let alone the NCAA.

I always find checking out lacrosse reference is worthwhile when talking bracketology, it gives a good early read on RPI and also SOS - looks like the current list is accurate as of today 3/21

https://lacrossereference.com/stats/rpi-d1-women/

If you want to play around with a scenario simulator tool, I put one together here. It takes the current RPI and lets you a) compare two resumes and b) see what those resumes look like depending on future results. It's a bit early for the tool since there are so many games to be played, but it's a fun way to do the compare/contrast.

[610Lax]

Denver is the only Big East team making national tourney as well.

Likely. But if Denver (or stony brook) get shocked in their conference tourney, they will still make the ncaa tourney.

The 6 conferences mentioned don’t have a single team who qualifies on their own

Might as well include the Patriot in this as well, as Fairfield is better than any team in that conference outside of Loyola. And the MAAC has dominated the Patriot in head to head matchups this season.

[laxdadpat]

Fairfield has only played 1 Patriot League team this year. It was Holy Cross and they lost. That one hurts.

I was one to pump the brakes on Army and Navy before the season, but both teams have put together very impressive seasons so far. Loyola, Army and Navy are deserving of making the final 28.