Way too early Final Four

[nyjay]

On the flip side, they gave up 13 goals over 120 minutes against Cuse and Richmond. The defense is still rock solid (including the SSDMs), they have an elite FOGO, and they have great play in goal which has not been a given typically. When your biggest concern is a unit featuring O'Neill, Zwada, and Williams, you're in good shape.

Also the 2021 Blue Devils had similar offensive sputters, and though their season ended with a thud they still made it to the Final Four.

That was quite the rotten egg last night. How do you score a total of 4 goals with that amount of offensive talent on the team? I get that Mark was great, but how can that possibly happen? Are the Duke fans starting to get frustrated with Danowski? Seems like they regularly underperform their talent level. Every year, they are one of the top 2-3 most talented teams in the country. 2014 is getting to be a while ago.

Which is completely ridiculous. Duke has been to the final four 3 of the past 4 years.

and missed the tournament once - and each year with a supremely talented roster. again, I said "starting to get frustrated". of course it's hard to win an NC and there is a lot of luck involved, but I think it's plenty fair (and certainly not ridiculous) to say they've underperformed their talent level.

[coda]

On the flip side, they gave up 13 goals over 120 minutes against Cuse and Richmond. The defense is still rock solid (including the SSDMs), they have an elite FOGO, and they have great play in goal which has not been a given typically. When your biggest concern is a unit featuring O'Neill, Zwada, and Williams, you're in good shape.

Also the 2021 Blue Devils had similar offensive sputters, and though their season ended with a thud they still made it to the Final Four.

That was quite the rotten egg last night. How do you score a total of 4 goals with that amount of offensive talent on the team? I get that Mark was great, but how can that possibly happen? Are the Duke fans starting to get frustrated with Danowski? Seems like they regularly underperform their talent level. Every year, they are one of the top 2-3 most talented teams in the country. 2014 is getting to be a while ago.

Which is completely ridiculous. Duke has been to the final four 3 of the past 4 years.

and missed the tournament once - and each year with a supremely talented roster. again, I said "starting to get frustrated". of course it's hard to win an NC and there is a lot of luck involved, but I think it's plenty fair (and certainly not ridiculous) to say they've underperformed their talent level.

IF you make a final four, its hard to say you underperformed. Like you said winning it all, usually takes a few breaks. They were in the Final last year. You be frustrated as a fan, but remember fan is short for fanatic, so their thoughts are not always rooted in reality.

[joewillie78]

Speaking from the view of a Cornell fan. We have not won a NC since 1977, but are we/ I frustrated? NOT in the least. We expect a competitive team, and we seem to get more than that easily, as we were in the NC game just 2 years ago, and seem to be in or near the top 10 every year.

Winning a NC would be great but for me, just watching my team play at such a high level every year is incredibly satisfying to me.

Maybe the Duke fans expect more than our fans or possibly Ivy league fans, but what Duke has done recently seems pretty darn impressive without winning a NC.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

[mdk01]

Speaking from the view of a Cornell fan. We have not won a NC since 1977, but are we/ I frustrated? NOT in the least. We expect a competitive team, and we seem to get more than that easily, as we were in the NC game just 2 years ago, and seem to be in or near the top 10 every year.

Winning a NC would be great but for me, just watching my team play at such a high level every year is incredibly satisfying to me.

Maybe the Duke fans expect more than our fans or possibly Ivy league fans, but what Duke has done recently seems pretty darn impressive without winning a NC.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

Expectations might be higher as each year (for the last 3) brings in 5th year ringers.

[nyjay]

Expectations might be higher as each year (for the last 3) brings in 5th year ringers.

That's kind of where I was going - I mean, I thought the '21 team (with Sowers) was going to be unbeatable. And yes, they made the final four but got destroyed by the Terps in the semis. Yes, MD was very, very good, but how does that team score only 5 goals?

[random observer]

Expectations might be higher as each year (for the last 3) brings in 5th year ringers.

That's kind of where I was going - I mean, I thought the '21 team (with Sowers) was going to be unbeatable. And yes, they made the final four but got destroyed by the Terps in the semis. Yes, MD was very, very good, but how does that team score only 5 goals?

Other B1G/ACC teams bring in ringers every year too. People act like Duke is the only team with a stacked roster these last few years; only one team can win the title at the end of the day, and it's surely not decided by a couple games in late March. It's a long season, and people on this forum have memories like goldfish. I still remember all the doom and gloom people had about UVA during the early parts of Lars's first title season, just as I remember that pretty much every year for the past two decades, people have questioned Duke because they had a bad game against High Point or Jacksonville or Richmond (their 2013 title team was 2-4 at one point in the season after getting whacked by the Terps). When looking back in hindsight, everyone conveniently forgets all of the warts they spotted in the top teams on the way to the Final Four (and believe me, they almost always have warts -- a team like 2022 Maryland comes around once in a generation).

Honestly ND will probably beat Duke just as they always seem to do, and things are going to go to DEFCON 1 in regards to worrying about Duke. Then UVA will beat ND and people will focus on them as the top dog. And I'm gonna have a real chuckle reading this thread after Duke beats UVA for like the 18th straight regular season and everyone acts like they're a juggernaut again and they never doubted them. And then the cycle will repeat again.

[youthathletics]

Army, Cuse, UVA, ND.

[mdk01]

Expectations might be higher as each year (for the last 3) brings in 5th year ringers.

That's kind of where I was going - I mean, I thought the '21 team (with Sowers) was going to be unbeatable. And yes, they made the final four but got destroyed by the Terps in the semis. Yes, MD was very, very good, but how does that team score only 5 goals?

Other B1G/ACC teams bring in ringers every year too. People act like Duke is the only team with a stacked roster these last few years; only one team can win the title at the end of the day, and it's surely not decided by a couple games in late March. It's a long season, and people on this forum have memories like goldfish. I still remember all the doom and gloom people had about UVA during the early parts of Lars's first title season, just as I remember that pretty much every year for the past two decades, people have questioned Duke because they had a bad game against High Point or Jacksonville or Richmond (their 2013 title team was 2-4 at one point in the season after getting whacked by the Terps). When looking back in hindsight, everyone conveniently forgets all of the warts they spotted in the top teams on the way to the Final Four (and believe me, they almost always have warts -- a team like 2022 Maryland comes around once in a generation).

Honestly ND will probably beat Duke just as they always seem to do, and things are going to go to DEFCON 1 in regards to worrying about Duke. Then UVA will beat ND and people will focus on them as the top dog. And I'm gonna have a real chuckle reading this thread after Duke beats UVA for like the 18th straight regular season and everyone acts like they're a juggernaut again and they never doubted them. And then the cycle will repeat again.

I never said only Duke. What I am saying the the expectations of Princeton fans who see what, 6 starters from last year's team playing for Top 20 teams might be different than fans of those teams.

[HGK]

What the Ivy League does without the ability to retain or add MBA kids is extremely impressive.

[random observer]

Expectations might be higher as each year (for the last 3) brings in 5th year ringers.

That's kind of where I was going - I mean, I thought the '21 team (with Sowers) was going to be unbeatable. And yes, they made the final four but got destroyed by the Terps in the semis. Yes, MD was very, very good, but how does that team score only 5 goals?

Other B1G/ACC teams bring in ringers every year too. People act like Duke is the only team with a stacked roster these last few years; only one team can win the title at the end of the day, and it's surely not decided by a couple games in late March. It's a long season, and people on this forum have memories like goldfish. I still remember all the doom and gloom people had about UVA during the early parts of Lars's first title season, just as I remember that pretty much every year for the past two decades, people have questioned Duke because they had a bad game against High Point or Jacksonville or Richmond (their 2013 title team was 2-4 at one point in the season after getting whacked by the Terps). When looking back in hindsight, everyone conveniently forgets all of the warts they spotted in the top teams on the way to the Final Four (and believe me, they almost always have warts -- a team like 2022 Maryland comes around once in a generation).

Honestly ND will probably beat Duke just as they always seem to do, and things are going to go to DEFCON 1 in regards to worrying about Duke. Then UVA will beat ND and people will focus on them as the top dog. And I'm gonna have a real chuckle reading this thread after Duke beats UVA for like the 18th straight regular season and everyone acts like they're a juggernaut again and they never doubted them. And then the cycle will repeat again.

I never said only Duke. What I am saying the the expectations of Princeton fans who see what, 6 starters from last year's team playing for Top 20 teams might be different than fans of those teams.

Oh for sure, I'm not denying that. I'm just saying that there isn't a single program out there for which 3 Final Fours in 4 years is not meeting expectations.

[coda]

Expectations might be higher as each year (for the last 3) brings in 5th year ringers.

That's kind of where I was going - I mean, I thought the '21 team (with Sowers) was going to be unbeatable. And yes, they made the final four but got destroyed by the Terps in the semis. Yes, MD was very, very good, but how does that team score only 5 goals?

Other B1G/ACC teams bring in ringers every year too. People act like Duke is the only team with a stacked roster these last few years; only one team can win the title at the end of the day, and it's surely not decided by a couple games in late March. It's a long season, and people on this forum have memories like goldfish. I still remember all the doom and gloom people had about UVA during the early parts of Lars's first title season, just as I remember that pretty much every year for the past two decades, people have questioned Duke because they had a bad game against High Point or Jacksonville or Richmond (their 2013 title team was 2-4 at one point in the season after getting whacked by the Terps). When looking back in hindsight, everyone conveniently forgets all of the warts they spotted in the top teams on the way to the Final Four (and believe me, they almost always have warts -- a team like 2022 Maryland comes around once in a generation).

Honestly ND will probably beat Duke just as they always seem to do, and things are going to go to DEFCON 1 in regards to worrying about Duke. Then UVA will beat ND and people will focus on them as the top dog. And I'm gonna have a real chuckle reading this thread after Duke beats UVA for like the 18th straight regular season and everyone acts like they're a juggernaut again and they never doubted them. And then the cycle will repeat again.

I never said only Duke. What I am saying the the expectations of Princeton fans who see what, 6 starters from last year's team playing for Top 20 teams might be different than fans of those teams.

Oh for sure, I'm not denying that. I'm just saying that there isn't a single program out there for which 3 Final Fours in 4 years is not meeting expectations.

There are only 2 programs that have made the final 4 3 times in the last 4 years. That is Duke and Virginia. That should put some perspective into this discussion

[Finster]

Army, Cuse, UVA, ND.

UVA, ND, Duke, Cuse (........................Penn State/Maryland really close to this last slot for Cuse...I'm choosing Cuse not because of any favoritism, rather their last two games...if Penn State or Maryland get in, zero surprise)

I'm conspicuously leaving out Army even from the potential 4th pick; though the story is great and I personally would love to see them win the entire thing, I just don't feel will be in the last 4 standing. Beating both UMASS by 1 and Cuse by 1, plus some other scores season to date...I don't know, just doesn't feel like an automatic Final Four team.

[nyjay]

There are only 2 programs that have made the final 4 3 times in the last 4 years. That is Duke and Virginia. That should put some perspective into this discussion

Very fair point. I'm not a Duke fan btw - I just had a general feeling that they have been a bit disappointing recently.

So I went back through IL's preseason rankings (which is probably a good measure of "expectations") and final rankings since Duke's NC year in 2014 to see if my perception was unfair or not. The results are below. They do show a pattern of underperformance (8 out of 10 years they finished below their preseason ranking), but it wasn't quite as pronounced as I thought it might be. In particular, I would have thought their preseason rankings were much higher than they actually were (surprised that they were preseason #1 only twice, though there were in the top 4 in 8 times). All in, I'd consider this fairly inconclusive but leaning towards disappointment.

Year/Preseason/Final

24/2/?
23/7/2 (+5)
22/3/13 (-10)
21/1/5 (-4)
20/7/8 (-1) (Covid year though)
19/2/4 (-2)
18/1/2 (-1)
17/10/7 (+3)
16/3/12 (-9)
15/3/8 (-5)

Averages: 3.7 (preseason) / 6.1 (final)

[coda]

There are only 2 programs that have made the final 4 3 times in the last 4 years. That is Duke and Virginia. That should put some perspective into this discussion

Very fair point. I'm not a Duke fan btw - I just had a general feeling that they have been a bit disappointing recently.

So I went back through IL's preseason rankings (which is probably a good measure of "expectations") and final rankings since Duke's NC year in 2014 to see if my perception was unfair or not. The results are below. They do show a pattern of underperformance (8 out of 10 years they finished below their preseason ranking), but it wasn't quite as pronounced as I thought it might be. In particular, I would have thought their preseason rankings were much higher than they actually were (surprised that they were preseason #1 only twice, though there were in the top 4 in 8 times). All in, I'd consider this fairly inconclusive but leaning towards disappointment.

Year/Preseason/Final

24/2/?
23/7/2 (+5)
22/3/13 (-10)
21/1/5 (-4)
20/7/8 (-1) (Covid year though)
19/2/4 (-2)
18/1/2 (-1)
17/10/7 (+3)
16/3/12 (-9)
15/3/8 (-5)

Averages: 3.7 (preseason) / 6.1 (final)

That is downside of being at Maryland, DUke, and Virginia. Expectations are just so high. It basically impossible to live up to them, but you get a solid pay and loaded roster.

[Unknown Participant]

Expectations might be higher as each year (for the last 3) brings in 5th year ringers.

That's kind of where I was going - I mean, I thought the '21 team (with Sowers) was going to be unbeatable. And yes, they made the final four but got destroyed by the Terps in the semis. Yes, MD was very, very good, but how does that team score only 5 goals?

Other B1G/ACC teams bring in ringers every year too. People act like Duke is the only team with a stacked roster these last few years; only one team can win the title at the end of the day, and it's surely not decided by a couple games in late March. It's a long season, and people on this forum have memories like goldfish. I still remember all the doom and gloom people had about UVA during the early parts of Lars's first title season, just as I remember that pretty much every year for the past two decades, people have questioned Duke because they had a bad game against High Point or Jacksonville or Richmond (their 2013 title team was 2-4 at one point in the season after getting whacked by the Terps). When looking back in hindsight, everyone conveniently forgets all of the warts they spotted in the top teams on the way to the Final Four (and believe me, they almost always have warts -- a team like 2022 Maryland comes around once in a generation).

Honestly ND will probably beat Duke just as they always seem to do, and things are going to go to DEFCON 1 in regards to worrying about Duke. Then UVA will beat ND and people will focus on them as the top dog. And I'm gonna have a real chuckle reading this thread after Duke beats UVA for like the 18th straight regular season and everyone acts like they're a juggernaut again and they never doubted them. And then the cycle will repeat again.

I never said only Duke. What I am saying the the expectations of Princeton fans who see what, 6 starters from last year's team playing for Top 20 teams might be different than fans of those teams.

Oh for sure, I'm not denying that. I'm just saying that there isn't a single program out there for which 3 Final Fours in 4 years is not meeting expectations.

In the DIII boards, Tufts (mostly the coach) gets crucified for not winning a NC despite 2 final 4s and one final over the last 3 years.

[youthathletics]

Army, Cuse, UVA, ND.

UVA, ND, Duke, Cuse (........................Penn State/Maryland really close to this last slot for Cuse...I'm choosing Cuse not because of any favoritism, rather their last two games...if Penn State or Maryland get in, zero surprise)

I'm conspicuously leaving out Army even from the potential 4th pick; though the story is great and I personally would love to see them win the entire thing, I just don't feel will be in the last 4 standing. Beating both UMASS by 1 and Cuse by 1, plus some other scores season to date...I don't know, just doesn't feel like an automatic Final Four team.

Same...call it wishful thinking and brilliant, on my part, if they do get in.

[Brownlax]

There are only 2 programs that have made the final 4 3 times in the last 4 years. That is Duke and Virginia. That should put some perspective into this discussion

Very fair point. I'm not a Duke fan btw - I just had a general feeling that they have been a bit disappointing recently.

So I went back through IL's preseason rankings (which is probably a good measure of "expectations") and final rankings since Duke's NC year in 2014 to see if my perception was unfair or not. The results are below. They do show a pattern of underperformance (8 out of 10 years they finished below their preseason ranking), but it wasn't quite as pronounced as I thought it might be. In particular, I would have thought their preseason rankings were much higher than they actually were (surprised that they were preseason #1 only twice, though there were in the top 4 in 8 times). All in, I'd consider this fairly inconclusive but leaning towards disappointment.

Year/Preseason/Final

24/2/?
23/7/2 (+5)
22/3/13 (-10)
21/1/5 (-4)
20/7/8 (-1) (Covid year though)
19/2/4 (-2)
18/1/2 (-1)
17/10/7 (+3)
16/3/12 (-9)
15/3/8 (-5)

Averages: 3.7 (preseason) / 6.1 (final)

Yikes - you really seem like you have an axe to grind. Did your kid not get recruited by Duke?

[Farfromgeneva]

Speaking from the view of a Cornell fan. We have not won a NC since 1977, but are we/ I frustrated? NOT in the least. We expect a competitive team, and we seem to get more than that easily, as we were in the NC game just 2 years ago, and seem to be in or near the top 10 every year.

Winning a NC would be great but for me, just watching my team play at such a high level every year is incredibly satisfying to me.

Maybe the Duke fans expect more than our fans or possibly Ivy league fans, but what Duke has done recently seems pretty darn impressive without winning a NC.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

Is it true you watch the end of the 09 championship every Sunday to pregame watching the jets during football season?

[Farfromgeneva]

What the Ivy League does without the ability to retain or add MBA kids is extremely impressive.

Those endowments offering free rides under $150-$200k HHI given inflation is probably not far off the relative value proposition for the native Americans funneling on the scholarship to Syracuse.

[Farfromgeneva]

There are only 2 programs that have made the final 4 3 times in the last 4 years. That is Duke and Virginia. That should put some perspective into this discussion

Very fair point. I'm not a Duke fan btw - I just had a general feeling that they have been a bit disappointing recently.

So I went back through IL's preseason rankings (which is probably a good measure of "expectations") and final rankings since Duke's NC year in 2014 to see if my perception was unfair or not. The results are below. They do show a pattern of underperformance (8 out of 10 years they finished below their preseason ranking), but it wasn't quite as pronounced as I thought it might be. In particular, I would have thought their preseason rankings were much higher than they actually were (surprised that they were preseason #1 only twice, though there were in the top 4 in 8 times). All in, I'd consider this fairly inconclusive but leaning towards disappointment.

Year/Preseason/Final

24/2/?
23/7/2 (+5)
22/3/13 (-10)
21/1/5 (-4)
20/7/8 (-1) (Covid year though)
19/2/4 (-2)
18/1/2 (-1)
17/10/7 (+3)
16/3/12 (-9)
15/3/8 (-5)

Averages: 3.7 (preseason) / 6.1 (final)

Where do you stand on ILs predictive ability for recruits?