Expected Goals
Posted: Wed Oct 25, 2023 10:26 am
This was originally published in the Sun Oct 15, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.
The Le Moyne defense proved to be an ironclad unit in 2023, ending the year as the third-ranked defense in the country. Their exceptional performance is evidence of their proficiency in the field, reflected in their opponent-adjusted percentile rankings. The team's shooting percentage was in the 100th percentile, a testament to their unparalleled defensive prowess. The same was true for on-goal shooting percentage, shot-on-goal rate, shooting efficiency, and shots allowed per possession, all of which were in the 100th percentile after adjusting for the strength of opposing offenses. Le Moyne's raw overall defensive efficiency was in the 92nd percentile, but after adjusting for the strength of their opponents, they soared to the 99th percentile.
Examining the team's peaks and troughs, the best four-game stretch for the Le Moyne defense occurred between February 25th and March 11th. They emerged victorious in all four games, and their adjusted defensive efficiency was an impressive 13%. However, not all periods were as triumphant. Their worst four-game stretch, despite resulting in 4 victories, saw their adjusted defensive efficiency drop to 27%, relegating them to the 72nd percentile. The primary factor driving this disparity was the turnover rate, which was 39% during their best stretch, compared to 27% in their worst. Creating chaos was crucial for this defense to be at their best.
When investigating games against conference peers and similarly ranked LaxElo teams, a crucial statistical threshold emerged: the assist rate. In games where the opposing offense assisted on more than 41.7% of their goals, Le Moyne's record was a disappointing 2-3. In contrast, in games where the opposing offense assisted on fewer than 41.7% of their goals, Le Moyne boasted a perfect 13-0 record. Again, if they couldn't make the opposing offense uncomfortable, this was a defense that could be beaten. It just didn't happen all that often.
Finally, analyzing how the team's defensive results varied based on the duration of opposing possessions revealed an interesting pattern. Le Moyne was more effective at the start of a possession, with their best performances occurring in possessions lasting less than 20 seconds. However, as the possession continued, they notably became more susceptible, indicating a vulnerability in their defense during prolonged engagements. It's the same story, if you were able to withstand the pressure and probe this defense, you were likely to find some holes to exploit.
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The Le Moyne defense proved to be an ironclad unit in 2023, ending the year as the third-ranked defense in the country. Their exceptional performance is evidence of their proficiency in the field, reflected in their opponent-adjusted percentile rankings. The team's shooting percentage was in the 100th percentile, a testament to their unparalleled defensive prowess. The same was true for on-goal shooting percentage, shot-on-goal rate, shooting efficiency, and shots allowed per possession, all of which were in the 100th percentile after adjusting for the strength of opposing offenses. Le Moyne's raw overall defensive efficiency was in the 92nd percentile, but after adjusting for the strength of their opponents, they soared to the 99th percentile.
Examining the team's peaks and troughs, the best four-game stretch for the Le Moyne defense occurred between February 25th and March 11th. They emerged victorious in all four games, and their adjusted defensive efficiency was an impressive 13%. However, not all periods were as triumphant. Their worst four-game stretch, despite resulting in 4 victories, saw their adjusted defensive efficiency drop to 27%, relegating them to the 72nd percentile. The primary factor driving this disparity was the turnover rate, which was 39% during their best stretch, compared to 27% in their worst. Creating chaos was crucial for this defense to be at their best.
When investigating games against conference peers and similarly ranked LaxElo teams, a crucial statistical threshold emerged: the assist rate. In games where the opposing offense assisted on more than 41.7% of their goals, Le Moyne's record was a disappointing 2-3. In contrast, in games where the opposing offense assisted on fewer than 41.7% of their goals, Le Moyne boasted a perfect 13-0 record. Again, if they couldn't make the opposing offense uncomfortable, this was a defense that could be beaten. It just didn't happen all that often.
Finally, analyzing how the team's defensive results varied based on the duration of opposing possessions revealed an interesting pattern. Le Moyne was more effective at the start of a possession, with their best performances occurring in possessions lasting less than 20 seconds. However, as the possession continued, they notably became more susceptible, indicating a vulnerability in their defense during prolonged engagements. It's the same story, if you were able to withstand the pressure and probe this defense, you were likely to find some holes to exploit.
Get smarter about college lacrosse in 5 minutes per day. Sign up for Expected Goals today.