Expected Goals

[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Sun Oct 01, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter. If you want 5-10 minutes of team and player analysis in your inbox every morning, sign up here.

DJ Dixon had a commendable run with Wesleyan this season, showcasing an array of skills that contributed to his team's performance. Dixon demonstrated significant improvements in key areas, particularly with his ball security and assist rate. He shined in maintaining ball possession, jumping from the 41st percentile in 2022 to an impressive 81st percentile in 2023. Similarly, his assist rate saw a notable increase, rising from the 48th percentile to the 80th percentile during the same period. His overall player efficiency rating, which I consider to be the best measure of how well someone played with the opportunity they were given, was in the 83rd percentile.

One of the most notable aspects of Dixon's season was his significant improvement in share of the team's assists, which jumped from 3.8% in 2022 to an impressive 11.2% in 2023. This jump placed him in the 76th percentile, indicating that he had become a more integral part of the team's offense. Similarly, his assist rate saw a substantial increase from the 48th percentile in 2022 to the 80th percentile in 2023, further highlighting his enhanced contribution to the team's success.

Looking at Dixon's best and worst stretches of the season provides further insight into his performance. His best 4-game stretch came between March 18 and April 1, which included games against Colby, Coast Guard, Bowdoin, and Hamilton. Wesleyan notched up 3 wins and 1 loss during this period, with Dixon's individual efficiency rating soaring to the 91st percentile. His shooting efficiency was in the 77th percentile, his ball security was in the 97th percentile, and his assist rate was in the 88th percentile. These stats underscore Dixon's crucial role in the team's success during this period.

In contrast, Dixon's worst 4-game stretch occurred between April 15 and April 26, where Wesleyan played against Tufts, Springfield, Williams, and Connecticut College. The team managed only 1 win against 3 losses during this period, and Dixon's individual efficiency rating dropped to the 27th percentile. His shooting efficiency plummeted to the 6th percentile, his ball security fell to the 28th percentile, and his assist rate dropped to the 69th percentile. These figures underline the impact of Dixon's performance on the team's fortunes. Seeing that shooting efficiency drop from the 77th to the 6th percentile makes it clear what went wrong during this period.

In summary, DJ Dixon's 2023 season was characterized by an increased role and commendable efficiency. His impressive assist rate and share of team's assists highlight his significant contributions to Wesleyan's offense. His performances during his best stretch of the season were particularly outstanding, contributing to the team's success. Despite a challenging period in late April, Dixon's overall performance for the season was solid, demonstrating an ability to assume a larger role while maintaining above-average efficiency.

This was originally published in the Sun Oct 01, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter. If you want 5-10 minutes of team and player analysis in your inbox every morning, sign up here.

[laxreference]

In the 2023 season, Randolph-Macon's offense saw the slightest of declines compared to the previous year. Their opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency dropped from 37.8% to 37.6%. This decrease was primarily driven by a decline in shooting percentage from 38.5% to 34.5%. They were the #1 opponent-adjusted shooting team in the country, by shooting percentage, in 2022; in 2023, they finished 33rd. To make matters worse, their shooting efficiency, which is a better gauge of shooting because it differentiates between shots missed off-cage and shots saved, fell from #1 nationally to 39th this past year. All that said, the offense ended the year as the 15th best offense by adjusted efficiency (down from 7th), so it's not as bad as the shooting numbers suggest.

On the defensive side, Randolph-Macon made significant improvements in the 2023 season. Their defensive efficiency improved from 26.8% to 24.0%. This improvement was driven by a decrease in opponent shooting percentage from 30.6% to 26.5%. Their defensive turnover rate also improved from 39.0% to 43.5%. They were the 40th best defense in opponent turnover rate, which was their best defensive statistical area. These improvements contributed to the defense ranking 74th nationally in efficiency. Still not in the same league as the offense, but the gap narrowed a ton this year.

In terms of possession margin, Randolph-Macon had a slight decline, going from a positive margin of +3.1 in 2022 to a negative margin of -0.7 in 2023. This change was influenced by a decrease in opponent-adjusted faceoff win rate from 52.4% to 46.9%. While faceoff win rate was not a particular strength for the team, it was critical from game-to-game in determining their outcomes. In their 12 wins, the team had a better adjusted faceoff win rate of 50.4%, while in their 6 losses, the rate dropped to 40.1%.

Based on the statistical analysis, the defensive improvements were the most significant factor contributing to Randolph-Macon's success in the 2023 season. The team's ability to limit opponent shooting percentage and force turnovers played a crucial role in their improved defensive efficiency. While the offense experienced a slight decline, their performance remained solid. The possession game, specifically the faceoff win rate, was an area where they struggled, but it wasn't enough to offset the defensive leap, which ultimately led them to a 19-spot rise in the LaxElo rankings.

This was originally published in the Fri Sep 29, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter. Get smarter about college lacrosse in 5 minutes per day. Sign up today.

[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Sat Sep 30, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The York defense proved to be one of the strongest units in the country in 2023. Ranked 18th nationally, the team's defense consistently demonstrated its prowess, with statistics placing them in the 79th percentile for raw overall defensive efficiency. After adjusting for the strength of the opposing offenses, they soared into the 98th percentile, underscoring their exceptional defensive performance. Their most impressive skill, shooting percentage, was ranked at the very top of DIII, restricting their opponents to a shooting success rate of just 29.4%.

A careful analysis of their performance over the season reveals fascinating insights about the team's capacity to adapt. Their best four-game stretch occurred between March 15 and March 25, during which the team's adjusted defensive efficiency was 21%, placing them in the 94th percentile. Despite a small hiccup with a loss to Gettysburg, victories over Haverford, Stevens, and Washington & Lee highlighted the team's resilience and efficiency. However, between April 1 and April 12 the team experienced its most challenging defensive period. Wins were secured over Messiah, Mary Washington, and Alvernia, but a loss to Salisbury marked a dip to the 73rd percentile with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 26%. This disparity was largely linked to their opponents' shot-on-goal rate which was 90% in the worst stretch compared to 74% during the best.

An interesting way to look at York's performance is through the statistical thresholds that most impacted their win-loss record. The key metric here is turnover rate. When the opposing offense turned the ball over on fewer than 29% of their possessions, York found itself on the losing side, ending with a 2 - 3 record. However, when the opposing offense's turnover rate was higher than 29%, York was 12-0. This is a defense that thrived on pressure and chaos.

In terms of the segments within the shot clock, the York defense showcased their skill and efficiency across all segments of a possession. They were particularly strong at the start of possessions, allowing goals on just 8.9% of possessions that lasted less than 20 seconds. However, the team's performance dipped slightly as possessions extended, allowing goals on 29.2% of possessions that lasted between 40 and 59s. Nonetheless, they were still 3.0 percentage points above the average in these situations, indicating an impressive ability to maintain defensive pressure.

The York defense has demonstrated its effectiveness and tenacity throughout the 2023 season, with a sharp eye for creating turnovers, excellent shooting percentage, and a strong showing throughout different stretches of the season. Despite minor setbacks, the team has shown consistent strength, highlighting their ability to adapt and learn from their experiences. Though there are certain aspects to improve upon, the York defense has laid a strong foundation for their future performance.

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[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Wed Sep 27, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

Will Byrne had a season of growth and solid performance for Bowdoin in 2023. He was very involved in the team's offense, with a 94th percentile share of the team's shots and a 96th percentile share of the team's assists. In some ways, he was the offense. This high usage rate, standing at the 97th percentile, underlines Byrne's significance in the team dynamics and his ability to shoulder responsibility.

Byrne's performance particularly shone through in his ability to create assists for his teammates. His assist rate saw a notable rise from the 68th percentile in 2022 to an impressive 83rd percentile in 2023. This upward trajectory is a testament to Byrne's development and his increasing ability to create scoring opportunities for his team. Assist rate is designed as something along the lines of assists-per-touch, so it's clear that this year, when he had the ball, he was looking to create shots for others more than he did in 2022.

However, it wasn't all smooth sailing for Byrne. His ball security saw a drop from the 82nd percentile in 2022 to a just-average 52nd percentile in 2023. Despite this, Byrne's overall shooting efficiency remained respectable at the 60th percentile, demonstrating his consistent ability to contribute to the team's offensive output.

Examining Byrne's best and worst stretches of games gives more insight into his performance fluctuations. During his best stretch from Apr 5 to Apr 18, Byrne's individual efficiency rating was at the 79th percentile, which played a significant role in Bowdoin's 4 - 0 run during this period. His shooting efficiency was at a high 83rd percentile, coupled with a solid 60th percentile for ball security and an outstanding 89th percentile assist rate.

Contrastingly, in the less successful stretch from Mar 18 to Mar 28, when Bowdoin went 3-1, Byrne's individual efficiency rating fell to the 42nd percentile. This period saw a lower shooting efficiency at the 73rd percentile and a noticeable drop in ball security to the 21st percentile, despite maintaining a high assist rate at the 82nd percentile.

The divergence in Byrne's performances during these stretches primarily lay in his ball security, pointing to this as a key area that influenced his overall game. In other words, he got his points during these games, but the uptick in turnovers was the thing that changed.

In summary, Will Byrne's 2023 season with Bowdoin was marked by high usage, impressive assist rates, and strong shooting efficiency, despite experiencing challenges with ball security. This is the type of player where, given his ability to create scoring, you'd love to see the turnovers come down. That's the key to really hitting the highs of individual efficiency. The challenge is having fewer mistakes without eliminating the aggressiveness that is so important in a top-tier offensive player.

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[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Mon Oct 2, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

In the 2023 season, Saint John Fisher's offense had a slightly lower efficiency of 38.2% (10th nationally) compared to 39.9% (2nd nationally) in 2022. Despite the drop, their offense remained a strong unit. Their turnover rate increased slightly from 28.9% (19th nationally) to 29.0% (41st nationally), suggesting that ball security was the big issue for the 2023 team.

On the defensive end, Saint John Fisher made significant improvements. Their opponents' efficiency dropped from 25.6% (91st nationally) in 2022 to 22.6% (51st nationally) in 2023, indicating a more effective defensive unit. The key driver behind this improvement was their opponents' turnover rate, which increased from 34.1% (172nd nationally) in 2022 to an impressive 43.7% (36th nationally) in 2023. Much more sloppiness in their games this year, but on net, the team benefited from the more chaotic style of play.

In terms of the possession game, Saint John Fisher had a solid per-game possession margin of +8.7 (26th nationally) in 2023. However, this was a decrease compared to their stellar +17.8 (2nd nationally) possession margin in 2022. Their faceoff win rate dropped from 71.1% (4th nationally) to 64.4% (25th nationally). The team's performance on faceoffs played a significant role in their overall success, as they had a higher adjusted faceoff win rate in wins (71.8%) compared to losses (56.1%).

Overall, while there were improvements in the defensive efficiency and opponents' turnover rate, the slight decline in offensive efficiency and possession game performance, particularly in faceoff win rate, contributed to what ultimately was an underwhelming season for Saint John Fisher. Their inability to maintain their previous year's offensive prowess and dominance in faceoffs hindered their overall success and led to their drop in the LaxElo rankings.

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[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Thu Oct 5, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

Washington and Lee's defense has been an impressive unit in the 2023 season, consistently ranking among the top echelons of national teams. This is underpinned by their solid raw overall defensive efficiency, where they scored in the 77th percentile. However, their defensive prowess truly shone through when we adjusted their raw stats for the strength of their opponents' offenses, they ended the year as the 11th ranked defensive unit in the country. Their standout skill lay in their shooting percentage allowed, where they ranked 4th nationally, limiting their opponents to an adjusted shooting percentage of only 19.2%.

The season has seen its share of highs and lows for Washington and Lee's defense. Their best 4-game stretch from April 22 to May 4 saw them finish 4-0 with a stellar adjusted defensive efficiency of 13%. However, even the best have their off days. From March 15 to March 25, the team experienced a decline in their defensive performance, with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 27.9%. This period saw them go 2-2 with losses to Christopher Newport and Lynchburg, a dip that hinted at potential vulnerabilities in their defense. Several factors contributed to this disparity, with the most significant being the shooting percentage they allowed, which soared from 13% in their best stretch to 33% in their worst.

When we turn our attention to games against conference peers and similarly ranked LaxElo teams, we find that a specific statistical threshold played a crucial role in their performance, and it's the same one we just mentioned: shooting percentage allowed. In the 12 games where they were able to hold opponents below 28.6%, they were 11-1, allowing an opponent scoring efficiency of only 20%. When the opposing offense's shooting percentage edged past 28.6%, Washington and Lee found the going tougher, as evidenced by their 2-2 record with a significantly higher opponent efficiency of 33%. Shooting percentage is not just a goalie stat, and the fact that it shows in both of the ways we can split a team's schedule makes it even less likely that this is an issue of goalie play.

In terms of possession duration splits, Washington and Lee's defense shone particularly bright in possessions that lasted between 40 and 60 seconds. They allowed goals on only 20.2% of such possessions, which is 7.7 percentage points better than the average. Interestingly, even in their weakest segment, possessions lasting longer than 60 seconds, they still performed above average, allowing goals on 21.2% of possessions, 1.4 percentage points better than the average.

In all in all, Washington and Lee's defense can be characterized by remarkable efficiency and a vulnerability to teams that are able to manufacture good shots and finish them at a high rate. Even at their worst, they still maintained an above-average performance, a testament to their defensive resilience. The 2023 season has indeed showcased a defense that has been a linchpin of Washington and Lee's success.

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[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Thu Oct 12, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The 2023 defensive unit of RIT exhibited a commendable performance, ranking in the 99th percentile after adjusting for the strength of the opposing offenses. This impressive feat positions them as the 9th ranked defensive unit in the country. This is a great example of why you need to adjust for opponent strength. If you just look at raw efficiency, RIT rated a 66 (out of 100). Ok, but nothing special; they were actually one of the top defenses in the nation when you account for the fact that they played some very good offenses.

A closer inspection of the season reveals a pattern of fluctuating performance within the RIT defense. The four-game stretch from March 5 to March 18 emerged as a golden period for the team, with a 3-1 record (the lone loss was to Christopher Newport) and an adjusted defensive efficiency of 21%, placing them comfortably in the 93rd percentile. This period, however, was followed by an underwhelming performance from April 29 to May 14 when their adjusted defensive efficiency dropped to 27%, relegating them to the 40th percentile. The primary factor for this variance was the shot-on-goal rate, which increased from 52% to 62% in these respective periods. I tend to think about shot-on-goal rate as a measure of the opponent's comfort level. So seeing a ten-percentage-point gap between their best and worst stretch makes me think that they weren't able to make teams uncomfortable as well as they needed to. It wouldn't be fair to close this section without saying that despite it being their worst stretch, they did still win all 4 games during the April/May period against St. Lawrence, St. Lawrence, Western Connecticut, and Babson.

Delving deeper into the performance of the RIT defense, a crucial determinant of their success becomes evident when analyzing games against conference peers and similarly ranked LaxElo teams. The assist-to-turnover ratio emerges as a pivotal factor. In games where the opposing offense recorded an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 0.44, RIT's record was a modest 2-1, with opponents scoring on 30% of their possessions. However, in the 7 games where this ratio was less than 0.44, RIT
put together a perfect 7-0 record, reducing the opposing efficiency to just 21%. This stark contrast reflects the team's ability to capitalize on the opposing team's mistakes and turn them into their own victories. And it probably dovetails with the observation above; when they could make teams uncomfortable, they were successful.

Considering the duration of opposing possessions, it's clear that the RIT defense was most effective in longer possessions, particularly those lasting over 60 seconds. In these instances, they allowed goals on just 14.8% of possessions, significantly better than the average (22.6%). However, shorter possessions were more challenging, with goals allowed on 28.7% of possessions between 20 to 40 seconds. This is actually 3.5 percentage points worse than the national average, pointing to a vulnerability in the early phases of the defense.

Not many teams had such large gap between their raw efficiency and their adjusted efficiency. Don't be followed by the relative pedestrian raw numbers. This was one of the best defenses in the nation.

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[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Fri Oct 6, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The 2023 season was a significant year for Tanyr Krummenacher, with his performance worthy of recognition. The most notable factor of the season was his impressive leap in ball security, jumping from the 45th percentile in 2022 to a respectable 72nd percentile in 2023; much better decision-making this year. And it helped him to post a solid overall individual efficiency number, landing in the 72nd percentile, an increase from the previous year's 64th percentile.

Krummenacher's role in the team expanded significantly in the 2023 season. Despite the increased attention from opponents, Krummenacher's performance didn't waver, even seeing the aforementioned increase in player efficiency. He ended the year with a 95th percentile usage rate and taking a 90th percentile share of his team's shots. His contribution to the team was further reflected in his impressive 95th percentile share of the team's assists. He was a little bit of a do-it-all swiss-army knife for Amherst.

I like to compare a player's best and worst stretches because it gives you a sense of which skills were most important to their game. The best 4-game stretch for Krummenacher was between March 5 and March 18, with games against Hamilton, Tufts, Bates, and York. It was a successful period for Amherst, securing three wins out of four games. During this stretch, Krummenacher's individual efficiency ranking was in the 82nd percentile. His skill-based statistics were noteworthy: his shooting efficiency was in the very top percentile, his ball security was in the 75th, and his assist rate was in the 73rd.

In contrast, Krummenacher's most challenging period came between April 29 and May 14, with games against Bowdoin, Tufts, Geneseo, and Salisbury. Amherst had a balanced record, with two wins and two losses. During these games, his individual efficiency ranking dipped to the 47th percentile. His shooting efficiency fell to the 41st percentile, his ball security to the 40th percentile, while his assist rate increased slightly to the 84th percentile.

In analyzing these periods, the most striking difference was in shooting efficiency. The dip in overall performance during the challenging period was most correlated with a decrease in shooting accuracy. Despite this, his assist rate remained consistently high in both periods, and the share of shots and assists was broadly similar.

This suggests two different conclusions, which you go with depends on where those extra turnovers came from (his ball security saw nearly as big a drop as his shooting efficiency). If the turnovers came when he was going to goal, then you might wonder whether he should have recognized that it wasn't a day to be a finisher and focus on what was working: creating assists. If the turnovers came in trying to create offense and maybe forcing passes into tight spots (which would explain the higher assist rate), then it's more of a decision-making issue. Hard to say which is right from the data I've got.

Anyway, Tanyr Krummenacher's 2023 season was marked by significant growth and admirable performance. His efficiency, ball security, and increased role within the team suggest a player coming into his own. His ability to improve his individual efficiency while taking on a larger role is a testament to his skill and adaptability. Despite the fluctuations in performance during the season, Krummenacher remained a valuable asset to the Amherst offense, making the 2023 season a noteworthy chapter in his lacrosse career.

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[Brokenstick]

Really enjoy reading this stat analysis for D3. Not sure why you select certain schools but like that you write about not only the CNU/Salisbury'/Tufts level teams, but include schools that are typically competitive and in the mix within the major conference tournaments.
The top 4-5 teams in all those conferences (ODAC, NESCAC etc.) all beat on each other every season and the standings are usually separated by thin margins over the course of the entire season. It’s almost always revealed somewhere in the stats. Numbers can sometimes be deceptive but rarely lie. Keep it coming!

[Laxattackjack]

This was originally published in the Fri Oct 6, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The 2023 season was a significant year for Tanyr Krummenacher, with his performance worthy of recognition. The most notable factor of the season was his impressive leap in ball security, jumping from the 45th percentile in 2022 to a respectable 72nd percentile in 2023; much better decision-making this year. And it helped him to post a solid overall individual efficiency number, landing in the 72nd percentile, an increase from the previous year's 64th percentile.

Krummenacher's role in the team expanded significantly in the 2023 season. Despite the increased attention from opponents, Krummenacher's performance didn't waver, even seeing the aforementioned increase in player efficiency. He ended the year with a 95th percentile usage rate and taking a 90th percentile share of his team's shots. His contribution to the team was further reflected in his impressive 95th percentile share of the team's assists. He was a little bit of a do-it-all swiss-army knife for Amherst.

I like to compare a player's best and worst stretches because it gives you a sense of which skills were most important to their game. The best 4-game stretch for Krummenacher was between March 5 and March 18, with games against Hamilton, Tufts, Bates, and York. It was a successful period for Amherst, securing three wins out of four games. During this stretch, Krummenacher's individual efficiency ranking was in the 82nd percentile. His skill-based statistics were noteworthy: his shooting efficiency was in the very top percentile, his ball security was in the 75th, and his assist rate was in the 73rd.

In contrast, Krummenacher's most challenging period came between April 29 and May 14, with games against Bowdoin, Tufts, Geneseo, and Salisbury. Amherst had a balanced record, with two wins and two losses. During these games, his individual efficiency ranking dipped to the 47th percentile. His shooting efficiency fell to the 41st percentile, his ball security to the 40th percentile, while his assist rate increased slightly to the 84th percentile.

In analyzing these periods, the most striking difference was in shooting efficiency. The dip in overall performance during the challenging period was most correlated with a decrease in shooting accuracy. Despite this, his assist rate remained consistently high in both periods, and the share of shots and assists was broadly similar.

This suggests two different conclusions, which you go with depends on where those extra turnovers came from (his ball security saw nearly as big a drop as his shooting efficiency). If the turnovers came when he was going to goal, then you might wonder whether he should have recognized that it wasn't a day to be a finisher and focus on what was working: creating assists. If the turnovers came in trying to create offense and maybe forcing passes into tight spots (which would explain the higher assist rate), then it's more of a decision-making issue. Hard to say which is right from the data I've got.

Anyway, Tanyr Krummenacher's 2023 season was marked by significant growth and admirable performance. His efficiency, ball security, and increased role within the team suggest a player coming into his own. His ability to improve his individual efficiency while taking on a larger role is a testament to his skill and adaptability. Despite the fluctuations in performance during the season, Krummenacher remained a valuable asset to the Amherst offense, making the 2023 season a noteworthy chapter in his lacrosse career.

If you want 5-10 minutes of team and player analysis in your inbox every morning, sign up for Expected Goals here.

How can we see the archived articles?

[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Fri Oct 6, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The 2023 season was a significant year for Tanyr Krummenacher, with his performance worthy of recognition. The most notable factor of the season was his impressive leap in ball security, jumping from the 45th percentile in 2022 to a respectable 72nd percentile in 2023; much better decision-making this year. And it helped him to post a solid overall individual efficiency number, landing in the 72nd percentile, an increase from the previous year's 64th percentile.

Krummenacher's role in the team expanded significantly in the 2023 season. Despite the increased attention from opponents, Krummenacher's performance didn't waver, even seeing the aforementioned increase in player efficiency. He ended the year with a 95th percentile usage rate and taking a 90th percentile share of his team's shots. His contribution to the team was further reflected in his impressive 95th percentile share of the team's assists. He was a little bit of a do-it-all swiss-army knife for Amherst.

I like to compare a player's best and worst stretches because it gives you a sense of which skills were most important to their game. The best 4-game stretch for Krummenacher was between March 5 and March 18, with games against Hamilton, Tufts, Bates, and York. It was a successful period for Amherst, securing three wins out of four games. During this stretch, Krummenacher's individual efficiency ranking was in the 82nd percentile. His skill-based statistics were noteworthy: his shooting efficiency was in the very top percentile, his ball security was in the 75th, and his assist rate was in the 73rd.

In contrast, Krummenacher's most challenging period came between April 29 and May 14, with games against Bowdoin, Tufts, Geneseo, and Salisbury. Amherst had a balanced record, with two wins and two losses. During these games, his individual efficiency ranking dipped to the 47th percentile. His shooting efficiency fell to the 41st percentile, his ball security to the 40th percentile, while his assist rate increased slightly to the 84th percentile.

In analyzing these periods, the most striking difference was in shooting efficiency. The dip in overall performance during the challenging period was most correlated with a decrease in shooting accuracy. Despite this, his assist rate remained consistently high in both periods, and the share of shots and assists was broadly similar.

This suggests two different conclusions, which you go with depends on where those extra turnovers came from (his ball security saw nearly as big a drop as his shooting efficiency). If the turnovers came when he was going to goal, then you might wonder whether he should have recognized that it wasn't a day to be a finisher and focus on what was working: creating assists. If the turnovers came in trying to create offense and maybe forcing passes into tight spots (which would explain the higher assist rate), then it's more of a decision-making issue. Hard to say which is right from the data I've got.

Anyway, Tanyr Krummenacher's 2023 season was marked by significant growth and admirable performance. His efficiency, ball security, and increased role within the team suggest a player coming into his own. His ability to improve his individual efficiency while taking on a larger role is a testament to his skill and adaptability. Despite the fluctuations in performance during the season, Krummenacher remained a valuable asset to the Amherst offense, making the 2023 season a noteworthy chapter in his lacrosse career.

If you want 5-10 minutes of team and player analysis in your inbox every morning, sign up for Expected Goals here.

How can we see the archived articles?

I don't have a way to do that yet en masse. But if there was one you were curious about, I can post the links individually.

[laxreference]

Really enjoy reading this stat analysis for D3. Not sure why you select certain schools but like that you write about not only the CNU/Salisbury'/Tufts level teams, but include schools that are typically competitive and in the mix within the major conference tournaments.
The top 4-5 teams in all those conferences (ODAC, NESCAC etc.) all beat on each other every season and the standings are usually separated by thin margins over the course of the entire season. It’s almost always revealed somewhere in the stats. Numbers can sometimes be deceptive but rarely lie. Keep it coming!

Thanks for the kind words. It's been fun to dive into DIII.

The teams are selected first based on the preferences of the readers who've subscribed to the newsletter. I try to, on a somewhat-regular basis, have at least one article for each team that someone has selected as "their team". After they've been taken care of, I tend to start with the higher ranked teams and work my way down the list. You get to the second-tier pretty quickly when you do an article every day.

I agree though, there are a ton of great stories beyond the blue-bloods in every division. Let me know if you ever have a team or player that you think deserves a write-up.

[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Mon Oct 9, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The 2023 defensive unit for Williams put together a solid performance, finishing the year as the 28th ranked defensive unit in the country. They stood strong in the 96th percentile for overall defensive efficiency, after adjusting for the strength of opposing offenses. The defense's greatest strength was their shooting percentage, which ranked 11th nationally. This translated to opponents finishing with an opponent-adjusted shooting percentage of just 20.5%.

However, within this formidable defense, there were periods of distinct highs and lows. The team's best 4-game stretch came between March 4 and 18, with an impressive adjusted defensive efficiency of 17%, putting them in the 99th percentile. They went 3-1 during this period with the lone loss coming against Union. Contrast that with their toughest period from April 26 to May 13 where the adjusted defensive efficiency dipped to 27%, placing them in the 40th percentile. They finished this stretch 1-3 with the lone victory against Trinity and losses against Middlebury twice and Babson as well. The difference between these periods can be attributed to the shooting percentage that they allowed, which was 22% during their peak and surged to 33% during the trough.

When examining matches against conference peers and similarly ranked LaxElo teams, an interesting pattern emerged related to shooting percentages (again; must be important). In games where they managed to keep the opposing offense's shooting percentage below 28.6%, Williams ended up with a record of 9 wins and 1 loss. However, when the opponents' shooting percentage exceeded 28.6%, they went 0-5. Shooting percentage is a tricky stat because you can't know whether it's the defense allowing high-quality shots or the goalie being unable to stop them. Regardless, when one metric shows up in all three parts of the analysis, you know there's something there. Where there's statistical smoke, there's fire.

Finally, looking at how the defense performed depending on the length of the opposing possessions, I found that Williams was effective in limiting goals in initial stages of the possessions. However, as the possession time increased, so did the vulnerability of the defense. For possessions that lasted over 60 seconds, they allowed goals on 29.1% of possessions, which is 6.6 percentage points worse than the average. By comparison, on possessions lasting less then 20 seconds, they were nearly 9 percentage points better than the average.

In summary, the key for the Williams defense lay in their ability to prevent good shots and their goalie's ability to stop them. The team's performance in 2023 was largely dictated by the ability to limit opponent's shooting percentages. And given their weakness in longer possessions, it's fair to assume that patient offenses were their achilles' heel. Still, despite a few periods of struggle, their overall performance was solid, making them one of the top defensive units in the country.

If you want 5-10 minutes of team and player analysis in your inbox every morning, sign up for Expected Goals here.

[Laxattackjack]

This was originally published in the Fri Oct 6, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The 2023 season was a significant year for Tanyr Krummenacher, with his performance worthy of recognition. The most notable factor of the season was his impressive leap in ball security, jumping from the 45th percentile in 2022 to a respectable 72nd percentile in 2023; much better decision-making this year. And it helped him to post a solid overall individual efficiency number, landing in the 72nd percentile, an increase from the previous year's 64th percentile.

Krummenacher's role in the team expanded significantly in the 2023 season. Despite the increased attention from opponents, Krummenacher's performance didn't waver, even seeing the aforementioned increase in player efficiency. He ended the year with a 95th percentile usage rate and taking a 90th percentile share of his team's shots. His contribution to the team was further reflected in his impressive 95th percentile share of the team's assists. He was a little bit of a do-it-all swiss-army knife for Amherst.

I like to compare a player's best and worst stretches because it gives you a sense of which skills were most important to their game. The best 4-game stretch for Krummenacher was between March 5 and March 18, with games against Hamilton, Tufts, Bates, and York. It was a successful period for Amherst, securing three wins out of four games. During this stretch, Krummenacher's individual efficiency ranking was in the 82nd percentile. His skill-based statistics were noteworthy: his shooting efficiency was in the very top percentile, his ball security was in the 75th, and his assist rate was in the 73rd.

In contrast, Krummenacher's most challenging period came between April 29 and May 14, with games against Bowdoin, Tufts, Geneseo, and Salisbury. Amherst had a balanced record, with two wins and two losses. During these games, his individual efficiency ranking dipped to the 47th percentile. His shooting efficiency fell to the 41st percentile, his ball security to the 40th percentile, while his assist rate increased slightly to the 84th percentile.

In analyzing these periods, the most striking difference was in shooting efficiency. The dip in overall performance during the challenging period was most correlated with a decrease in shooting accuracy. Despite this, his assist rate remained consistently high in both periods, and the share of shots and assists was broadly similar.

This suggests two different conclusions, which you go with depends on where those extra turnovers came from (his ball security saw nearly as big a drop as his shooting efficiency). If the turnovers came when he was going to goal, then you might wonder whether he should have recognized that it wasn't a day to be a finisher and focus on what was working: creating assists. If the turnovers came in trying to create offense and maybe forcing passes into tight spots (which would explain the higher assist rate), then it's more of a decision-making issue. Hard to say which is right from the data I've got.

Anyway, Tanyr Krummenacher's 2023 season was marked by significant growth and admirable performance. His efficiency, ball security, and increased role within the team suggest a player coming into his own. His ability to improve his individual efficiency while taking on a larger role is a testament to his skill and adaptability. Despite the fluctuations in performance during the season, Krummenacher remained a valuable asset to the Amherst offense, making the 2023 season a noteworthy chapter in his lacrosse career.

If you want 5-10 minutes of team and player analysis in your inbox every morning, sign up for Expected Goals here.

How can we see the archived articles?

I don't have a way to do that yet en masse. But if there was one you were curious about, I can post the links individually.

I saw you did a York defense piece. Did you also do a York offense?

[laxreference]

I saw you did a York defense piece. Did you also do a York offense?

I did. Here you go. The teaser was "There is one facet of the team's performance that, if you could wave a magic wand and fix, would produce a much more efficiency Spartans offense"

[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Sun Oct 22, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The analysis here covers the 2023 season performance of Ohio Northern in 13 games against conference opponents or teams with similar LaxElo rankings. The team's overall record in these games stood at 7 wins and 6 losses. The objective is to identify the statistical thresholds that created the most black-and-white outcomes. The interesting thresholds are the ones that have the best outcomes above the line and the worst below; that tends to be the place where we can learn the most about what makes an offense tick.

In dissecting their performance, a striking pattern emerges. Ohio Northern's success or failure seems to hinge heavily on their shooting percentage. In games where the team's shooting percentage surpassed the 30% mark, Ohio Northern scored on 34% of their possessions and had a 7-0 record. When their shooting percentage dipped below this threshold, their scoring efficiency dropped to 15%, and they were 0-6.

Further, the involvement of the midfield and the productivity of the attack unit significantly influenced the team's performance. When the midfield unit took 13 or more shots, Ohio Northern was 7-1 scoring on 33% of possessions. And we aren't saying that those shots necessarily had to go in (otherwise it would be a goal threshold), but it was important that this offense was balanced.

And when the attack unit netted 5 or more goals, the team won 7 out of these 8 games, with an equivalent scoring efficiency. However, when these units underperformed, the team's scoring efficiency again dropped to 14%, resulting in defeats. As much as they needed the midfield involved, that may have been as much about taking defensive pressure off the attack. It was the attack that they relied on to actually put the points on the board.

Player performance also played a crucial role. Specifically, when Sebastian Michaud scored 1 or more goals, Ohio Northern won 7 of these 9 games. However, when he didn't score, the team lost all 4 matches. He wasn't the highest usage-rate guy on the team, but when they were able to get him involved, good things happened.

In summary, Ohio Northern's performance in the 2023 season exhibited clear trends. Their victories were characterized by high shooting percentages, proactive midfield and attack units, and standout performances by key players. Conversely, their losses were marked by low shooting percentages, underperforming units, and lackluster individual performances. These trends provide valuable insights into Ohio Northern's strengths and vulnerabilities during the 2023 season.

If you want 5-10 minutes of team and player analysis in your inbox every morning, sign up for Expected Goals here.

[Laxattackjack]

I saw you did a York defense piece. Did you also do a York offense?

I did. Here you go. The teaser was "There is one facet of the team's performance that, if you could wave a magic wand and fix, would produce a much more efficiency Spartans offense"

Thank you

[Nothinbutthelax]

This was originally published in the Fri Oct 6, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The 2023 season was a significant year for Tanyr Krummenacher, with his performance worthy of recognition. The most notable factor of the season was his impressive leap in ball security, jumping from the 45th percentile in 2022 to a respectable 72nd percentile in 2023; much better decision-making this year. And it helped him to post a solid overall individual efficiency number, landing in the 72nd percentile, an increase from the previous year's 64th percentile.

Krummenacher's role in the team expanded significantly in the 2023 season. Despite the increased attention from opponents, Krummenacher's performance didn't waver, even seeing the aforementioned increase in player efficiency. He ended the year with a 95th percentile usage rate and taking a 90th percentile share of his team's shots. His contribution to the team was further reflected in his impressive 95th percentile share of the team's assists. He was a little bit of a do-it-all swiss-army knife for Amherst.

I like to compare a player's best and worst stretches because it gives you a sense of which skills were most important to their game. The best 4-game stretch for Krummenacher was between March 5 and March 18, with games against Hamilton, Tufts, Bates, and York. It was a successful period for Amherst, securing three wins out of four games. During this stretch, Krummenacher's individual efficiency ranking was in the 82nd percentile. His skill-based statistics were noteworthy: his shooting efficiency was in the very top percentile, his ball security was in the 75th, and his assist rate was in the 73rd.

In contrast, Krummenacher's most challenging period came between April 29 and May 14, with games against Bowdoin, Tufts, Geneseo, and Salisbury. Amherst had a balanced record, with two wins and two losses. During these games, his individual efficiency ranking dipped to the 47th percentile. His shooting efficiency fell to the 41st percentile, his ball security to the 40th percentile, while his assist rate increased slightly to the 84th percentile.

In analyzing these periods, the most striking difference was in shooting efficiency. The dip in overall performance during the challenging period was most correlated with a decrease in shooting accuracy. Despite this, his assist rate remained consistently high in both periods, and the share of shots and assists was broadly similar.

This suggests two different conclusions, which you go with depends on where those extra turnovers came from (his ball security saw nearly as big a drop as his shooting efficiency). If the turnovers came when he was going to goal, then you might wonder whether he should have recognized that it wasn't a day to be a finisher and focus on what was working: creating assists. If the turnovers came in trying to create offense and maybe forcing passes into tight spots (which would explain the higher assist rate), then it's more of a decision-making issue. Hard to say which is right from the data I've got.

Anyway, Tanyr Krummenacher's 2023 season was marked by significant growth and admirable performance. His efficiency, ball security, and increased role within the team suggest a player coming into his own. His ability to improve his individual efficiency while taking on a larger role is a testament to his skill and adaptability. Despite the fluctuations in performance during the season, Krummenacher remained a valuable asset to the Amherst offense, making the 2023 season a noteworthy chapter in his lacrosse career.

If you want 5-10 minutes of team and player analysis in your inbox every morning, sign up for Expected Goals here.

How can we see the archived articles?

I don't have a way to do that yet en masse. But if there was one you were curious about, I can post the links individually.

Anything in Lynchburg?

[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Fri Oct 6, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The 2023 season was a significant year for Tanyr Krummenacher, with his performance worthy of recognition. The most notable factor of the season was his impressive leap in ball security, jumping from the 45th percentile in 2022 to a respectable 72nd percentile in 2023; much better decision-making this year. And it helped him to post a solid overall individual efficiency number, landing in the 72nd percentile, an increase from the previous year's 64th percentile.

Krummenacher's role in the team expanded significantly in the 2023 season. Despite the increased attention from opponents, Krummenacher's performance didn't waver, even seeing the aforementioned increase in player efficiency. He ended the year with a 95th percentile usage rate and taking a 90th percentile share of his team's shots. His contribution to the team was further reflected in his impressive 95th percentile share of the team's assists. He was a little bit of a do-it-all swiss-army knife for Amherst.

I like to compare a player's best and worst stretches because it gives you a sense of which skills were most important to their game. The best 4-game stretch for Krummenacher was between March 5 and March 18, with games against Hamilton, Tufts, Bates, and York. It was a successful period for Amherst, securing three wins out of four games. During this stretch, Krummenacher's individual efficiency ranking was in the 82nd percentile. His skill-based statistics were noteworthy: his shooting efficiency was in the very top percentile, his ball security was in the 75th, and his assist rate was in the 73rd.

In contrast, Krummenacher's most challenging period came between April 29 and May 14, with games against Bowdoin, Tufts, Geneseo, and Salisbury. Amherst had a balanced record, with two wins and two losses. During these games, his individual efficiency ranking dipped to the 47th percentile. His shooting efficiency fell to the 41st percentile, his ball security to the 40th percentile, while his assist rate increased slightly to the 84th percentile.

In analyzing these periods, the most striking difference was in shooting efficiency. The dip in overall performance during the challenging period was most correlated with a decrease in shooting accuracy. Despite this, his assist rate remained consistently high in both periods, and the share of shots and assists was broadly similar.

This suggests two different conclusions, which you go with depends on where those extra turnovers came from (his ball security saw nearly as big a drop as his shooting efficiency). If the turnovers came when he was going to goal, then you might wonder whether he should have recognized that it wasn't a day to be a finisher and focus on what was working: creating assists. If the turnovers came in trying to create offense and maybe forcing passes into tight spots (which would explain the higher assist rate), then it's more of a decision-making issue. Hard to say which is right from the data I've got.

Anyway, Tanyr Krummenacher's 2023 season was marked by significant growth and admirable performance. His efficiency, ball security, and increased role within the team suggest a player coming into his own. His ability to improve his individual efficiency while taking on a larger role is a testament to his skill and adaptability. Despite the fluctuations in performance during the season, Krummenacher remained a valuable asset to the Amherst offense, making the 2023 season a noteworthy chapter in his lacrosse career.

If you want 5-10 minutes of team and player analysis in your inbox every morning, sign up for Expected Goals here.

How can we see the archived articles?

I don't have a way to do that yet en masse. But if there was one you were curious about, I can post the links individually.

Anything in Lynchburg?

Surprisingly, not yet. Would you prefer a general survey, an offensive deep-dive, a defensive deep-dive, or a player season recap (if so, which player)?

[Nothinbutthelax]

Offense defense deep dive would be great!
Maybe FO deep dive too. That would be interesting.