Expected Goals

[laxreference]

Limestone's 2023 defensive unit proved to be a formidable force, ranking as the 14th best in the nation. The team boasted impressive percentile rankings across several key statistics, particularly when adjusting for the strength of the opposing offenses. For instance, the team ranked in the 98th percentile for opponent-adjusted shot-on-goal rate, opponent-adjusted turnover rate, and opponent-adjusted shots allowed per possession. This clearly indicates Limestone's ability to counter even the strongest offenses, a characteristic that places them in the upper echelons of the national landscape.

Examining the team's performance throughout the season, there were notable fluctuations that pinpoint the keys to their defensive strength. The team's best stretch from May 1 to May 21, saw them exhibit a stellar adjusted defensive efficiency of 16%. For context, this essentially saying that for 4 games in May, they had the best defense in the country. During this period, they managed to keep the adjusted shooting percentage of opponents to 24%, a feat that underscores their defensive prowess. Conversely, the worst stretch from Feb 25 to Mar 15, saw these figures increase significantly, with shooting percentages reaching 33%, and adjusted defensive efficiency falling to 32%, placing them in the 23rd percentile. And these stats are taken only from stretches of games when the outcome was in doubt; so there are no garbage-time goals skewing the numbers.

Another key aspect of Limestone's defense is their performance relative to the length of the possessions they faced. The team's defense was at its best during possessions lasting 40 to 59 seconds, allowing goals on only 24.1% of these possessions. This is a significant 5.3 percentage points better than the average. However, when possessions lasted longer than 60 seconds, their efficiency dipped quite a bit, allowing goals on 23.6% of possessions, just 0.4 percentage points better than average. (On average, possessions that last longer than 60 seconds are less likely to result in goals than shorter possessions. Survivorship bias.) This suggests that the longer the opposing offense probes the Limestone defense, the more likely the defense is to be breached. This was a great unit, but if you are a particularly patient offense who can work the defense for a long period of time, they became essentially average.

Finally, a critical statistical threshold for Limestone is the shots-per-possession ratio of their opponents. To reduce the impact of mismatches, we are looking at games against conference foes and teams with similar LaxElo rankings. When opposing offenses average more than 1.02 shots per possession, Limestone's win rate drops considerably. This is evidenced by their 0 - 4 record in such games, where they allowed opponents to score on a whopping 37% of their possessions. On the flip side, when opponents took fewer than 1.02 shots per possession, Limestone's record was an unbeaten 8 - 0, with an opponent efficiency of just 21%. This stark contrast emphasizes the importance of limiting the number of shots the opposition can take per possession whether the extras come from backed-up misses or rebounds. And it dovetails nicely with the longer-possessions nugget highlighted above. Teams were much more effective against Limestone when the possession had a chance to develop, even if that meant an early miss or two.


This was originally published in the Fri Sep 29, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter. If you want 5-10 minutes of team and player analysis in your inbox every morning, sign up here.

[Doxology]

Interesting read . . .

Where did you get your info for length of possession?

[laxreference]

Interesting read . . .

Where did you get your info for length of possession?

I have some scripts that process the play-by-play logs that are posted by the teams. Each play comes with a timestamp and I can calculate possession lengths and pacing styles based on all of that information after it's been rolled up for each game and season.

If the follow up question was whether they are available publicly, unfortunately, the answer is no. The only place they are shown is as part of the LacrosseReference PRO: Teams product that teams used for scouting.

[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Sun Oct 08, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter. If you want 5-10 minutes of team and player analysis in your inbox every morning, sign up here.

The Le Moyne defense, characterized by its tenacity and resilience, has consistently ranked among the top echelons in 2023. The team's defensive ability is evident in the raw statistics, with shooting percentage, on-goal shooting percentage, and shot-on-goal rate all ranking in the top decile across DII. After adjusting for the strength of opposing offenses, these figures become even more impressive, topping the charts as one of the best defenses in the nation. Unsurprisingly, when we look at their overall defensive efficiency, they were again among the elites, finishing the year with the 2nd best defensive rating in the country.

A closer examination of the team's performance reveals a stark contrast between the best and the worst stretches, which gives us a great window into what made them tick. The best 4-game stretch, marked by wins against Franklin Pierce, Adelphi, Saint Anselm, and Bentley, showcased an astounding adjusted defensive efficiency of 14%. On the other hand, the worst 4-game stretch, despite resulting in another 4-0 record against Bentley, AIC, Saint Rose, and Franklin Pierce, saw the team's adjusted defensive efficiency plummet to 35%, falling to the 5th percentile. This dip can be attributed to the defense allowing a higher shot-on-goal rate and forcing fewer turnovers during this period. And these numbers exclude garbage time, so it wasn't just a question of letting the gas up in blowouts. In their best stretch, again excluding garbage time, they allowed a shot on goal rate of just 50%; during their worst stretch, it was 72%. This was a defense that was much more effective when they were creating chaos out of their opponents best-laid offensive plans.

The team's performance against conference peers and similarly ranked LaxElo teams also provides valuable insight into the defense's strengths and weaknesses. A key statistical threshold that emerged is the opposing offense's shooting percentage. Games where the opposing offense had a shooting percentage greater than 27.1% saw Le Moyne's defense struggle, conceding on 31% of opponents' possessions (they did still win 3 out of the 4 games). In contrast, when the opposing offense's shooting percentage was less than 27.1%, Le Moyne stood undefeated at 12-0, limiting opponent efficiency to 21%. This is inline with the above observation; when opposing offenses were comfortable, they put more shots on goal, turned it over less, and saw a higher percentage of their shots go in.

Finally, the team's defensive results also varied depending on the duration of opposing possessions. The defense was particularly effective in longer possessions, lasting greater than 60 seconds, allowing goals on just 14.9% of such possessions. However, in shorter possessions, lasting less than 20 seconds, they allowed goals on 23.6% of possessions. This indicates that the defense's efficacy grows as the possession time increases, suggesting a strong ability to maintain a disciplined defensive front. To put this in perspective, they were 9.1 percentage points better than the average defensive on possessions lasting longer than 60 seconds. On the possessions lasting less than 20 seconds, they were just 1.3 percentage points better.

This was originally published in the Sun Oct 08, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter. If you want 5-10 minutes of team and player analysis in your inbox every morning, sign up here.

[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Mon Oct 9, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

Justin White had an excellent 2023 season playing for Rollins, with several statistical highlights. White had a noteworthy 64th percentile assist rate, a solid 69th percentile shooting efficiency, and a commendable 78th percentile individual player efficiency. His ball security was strong too, landing him in the 83rd percentile. he ended up with an 83rd percentile usage rate and a significant 86th percentile share of the team's shots.

Comparing White's 2023 performance with his 2022 season, it's clear that his role within the team evolved. For instance, his share of the team's assists increased from 3.6% in 2022 to 12.5% in 2023. His assist rate also witnessed a remarkable improvement, jumping from the 19th percentile in 2022 to the 64th percentile in 2023. However, White's shooting efficiency took a slight dip from the 82nd percentile in 2022 to the 69th percentile in 2023.

Interestingly, White's best stretch of games in the 2023 season came between April 15 and April 27, where he played against Saint Leo, Palm Beach Atlantic, and Florida Tech. During this period, his individual efficiency rating was in the impressive 90th percentile, and his shooting efficiency was in the 93rd percentile. His usage rate was lower in these games, with a 12.5% share of the team's shots and a 5.9% share of the team's assists, suggesting that he was best when he didn't need to be the top option.

Conversely, his most challenging stretch was between March 25 and April 12, where he faced Embry-Riddle, Tampa, Lynn, and Florida Southern. His individual efficiency rating dropped to the 29th percentile, and his shooting efficiency fell dramatically to the 9th percentile. However, White played a larger role during this period, taking 18.2% of the team's shots and 18.5% of the team's assists. It's always hard when you are the focal point, but the challenge for a player like White is to still be efficient in the opportunities you do get. A 9th percentile shooting efficiency is never going to cut it for a top option.

Clearly, White's shooting efficiency was a significant factor in his performance, and it was the most obvious difference between his best and worst games. As opposed to a more basic shooting percentage metric, shooting efficiency differentiates between misses off-cage (and probably backed up) and saved shots. All of that said, it's important to note that Rollins' performance as a team remained steady during both periods, winning all four games regardless of White's individual performance. This indicates a solid team dynamic that doesn't overly rely on any single player.

In summary, Justin White's 2023 season was a tale of growth and increased responsibility within the team. His improved assist rate and share of the team's assists were clear highlights. Although there were fluctuations in his personal performance, particularly in shooting efficiency, the team's overall success remained stable, reflecting well on Rollins' balanced stable of options on offense.

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[GaitsRightHand]

Can you do LR's?

[laxreference]

Can you do LR's?

Happy to. I love getting reader suggestions for new newsletter articles. I'll be curious to hear what you think of my analysis.

The offense for Lenoir-Rhyne had an exceptional season in 2023, finishing 1st nationally in opponent-adjusted efficiency. They made significant improvements in both turnover rate and shooting efficiency. The turnover rate dropped from 28.2% (6th nationally) in 2022 to an impressive 20.6% (1st nationally) in 2023. This improvement was driven by players like Toron Eccleston, whose turnover rate went from 59.5% last year to 30.8% this year. The shooting efficiency also saw a notable increase, going from 40.5% (22nd nationally) in 2022 to 44.9% (3rd nationally) in 2023. Since shooting efficiency creates an extra penalty for shots being saved by the opposing goalie, this had a likely knock-on effect in reducing the transition opportunities that the defense faced.

The defense for Lenoir-Rhyne was equally impressive, finishing 1st nationally in defensive efficiency. They made significant strides in both defensive shooting efficiency and turnover rate. The defensive shooting efficiency improved from 32.7% (6th nationally) in 2022 to 27.7% (1st nationally) in 2023. This improvement indicates that either the defense did a better job at making the opposing offense uncomfortable or their goalies had a better season in net (I generally assume it's the former unless proven otherwise). Additionally, the turnover rate increased from 36.7% (23rd nationally) in 2022 to 41.7% (11th nationally) in 2023, showing that the defense was able to generate more turnovers and disrupt the opposing team's offensive flow.

In terms of possession margin, Lenoir-Rhyne maintained a healthy +5.0 margin (22nd nationally) in 2023, similar to their +5.6 margin (17th nationally) in 2022. Despite a slight decline in possession margin, there were no significant changes in the supporting statistics such as faceoff win rate. The opponent-adjusted faceoff win rate did increase slightly from 57.4% (20th nationally) in 2022 to 60.9% (16th nationally) in 2023, but the impact on possession margin was minimal.

Among these three statistical areas, the offense stood out the most in contributing to Lenoir-Rhyne's successful 2023 season. Their significant improvements in turnover rate and shooting efficiency propelled them to the spot in offensive efficiency. This, combined with their high ranking in defensive efficiency, made them a formidable team in all aspects of the game.

I also published this in today's DII edition of Expected Goals, so all 337 readers are going to get to read about the Bears. Get smarter about college lacrosse in 5 minutes per day. Sign up for Expected Goals today.

[GaitsRightHand]

Can you do LR's?

Happy to. I love getting reader suggestions for new newsletter articles. I'll be curious to hear what you think of my analysis.

The offense for Lenoir-Rhyne had an exceptional season in 2023, finishing 1st nationally in opponent-adjusted efficiency. They made significant improvements in both turnover rate and shooting efficiency. The turnover rate dropped from 28.2% (6th nationally) in 2022 to an impressive 20.6% (1st nationally) in 2023. This improvement was driven by players like Toron Eccleston, whose turnover rate went from 59.5% last year to 30.8% this year. The shooting efficiency also saw a notable increase, going from 40.5% (22nd nationally) in 2022 to 44.9% (3rd nationally) in 2023. Since shooting efficiency creates an extra penalty for shots being saved by the opposing goalie, this had a likely knock-on effect in reducing the transition opportunities that the defense faced.

The defense for Lenoir-Rhyne was equally impressive, finishing 1st nationally in defensive efficiency. They made significant strides in both defensive shooting efficiency and turnover rate. The defensive shooting efficiency improved from 32.7% (6th nationally) in 2022 to 27.7% (1st nationally) in 2023. This improvement indicates that either the defense did a better job at making the opposing offense uncomfortable or their goalies had a better season in net (I generally assume it's the former unless proven otherwise). Additionally, the turnover rate increased from 36.7% (23rd nationally) in 2022 to 41.7% (11th nationally) in 2023, showing that the defense was able to generate more turnovers and disrupt the opposing team's offensive flow.

In terms of possession margin, Lenoir-Rhyne maintained a healthy +5.0 margin (22nd nationally) in 2023, similar to their +5.6 margin (17th nationally) in 2022. Despite a slight decline in possession margin, there were no significant changes in the supporting statistics such as faceoff win rate. The opponent-adjusted faceoff win rate did increase slightly from 57.4% (20th nationally) in 2022 to 60.9% (16th nationally) in 2023, but the impact on possession margin was minimal.

Among these three statistical areas, the offense stood out the most in contributing to Lenoir-Rhyne's successful 2023 season. Their significant improvements in turnover rate and shooting efficiency propelled them to the spot in offensive efficiency. This, combined with their high ranking in defensive efficiency, made them a formidable team in all aspects of the game.

I also published this in today's DII edition of Expected Goals, so all 337 readers are going to get to read about the Bears. Get smarter about college lacrosse in 5 minutes per day. Sign up for Expected Goals today.

Awesome! Thank you. #1 in defensive and offensive efficiency is impressive. Eccleston clearly had some big improvements too, he's at SJU now- so I'll be keeping an eye out for him in the spring.

I've subscribed to your website as well. Looking forward to some more stats.

[greatwhitenorth]

Would love to see Newberry.

[laxreference]

Would love to see Newberry.

Great suggestion, it was in today's newsletter, but I've reprinted if below as well.

Across the board, Newberry saw improvements in their offensive output this season. Their offensive efficiency increased from 32.9% (16th) to an impressive 34.9% (13th). This improvement was driven by their shooting performance, with shooting percentage rising from 34.1% (9th) to 37.8% (2nd). The team also excelled in shooting efficiency, with a significant increase from 41.9% (12th) to 45.7% (2nd). (Shooting efficiency is slightly different than shooting percentage because of an emphasis on high-leverage on-cage shots.) These improvements allowed Newberry's offense to generate more value on a per-shot basis in 2023 than they did in 2022.

On the defensive side, Newberry made even larger strides in limiting their opponents' scoring efficiency. They reduced their defensive shooting percentage from 32.5% (56th) to 28.4% (35th), indicating a better ability to save shots and prevent easy goals. Additionally, their defensive shooting efficiency improved from 41.1% (58th) to 37.1% (40th), showcasing an enhanced ability to make opposing offenses uncomfortable and limit transition opportunities. The offense was the more impressive unit if you just look at this year, but the improvements on defense, relative to the 2022 team were much more substantial.

In terms of the possession game, Newberry faced a slight decline in their per-game possession margin, moving from a positive margin of +1.8 (35th) in the previous season to a narrow deficit of -0.1 (43rd) this year. This change was not directly tied to any specific statistical areas, as their faceoff win rate remained relatively stable, increasing marginally from 52.0% (33rd) to 52.9% (34th). More often than not, faceoff success is not as important to a team's win-loss record, at least when you compare its impact to offensive and defensive efficiency, so if you are going to see a decline in one of these three areas, you'd rather it be the possession game.

Overall, Newberry's offensive improvements, particularly in shooting efficiency, and their defensive efforts to decrease opponent shooting percentage resulted in a solid season for the team. The offense was the better unit, but since the defense improved so much more since last year, I think you have to give the nod to the defense. Yes, there was a slight dip in their possession game, the team's ability to generate consistent offensive threats and limit opponents' scoring opportunities ultimately led to their 5-spot rise in the LaxElo program strength rankings.

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[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Wed Oct 4, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

Noah Gibson emerged as a notable player for Saint Rose in the 2023 season, with an impressive 10.2% usage rate and contributing to 19.0% of the team's assists. His performance was marked by a 60th percentile ball security and an 80th percentile shooting efficiency, his best skill. However, his overall individual player efficiency stood at a modest 59th percentile, indicating scope for improvement.

Gibson's shooting efficiency is his standout skill. Ranking in the 80th percentile, he demonstrated a strong ability to create value on a per-shot basis. His shots were less likely to be saved by the opposing goalie (this is key in shooting efficiency as opposed to shooting percentage), reducing the opposition's transition opportunities. Maintaining this high level of shooting efficiency will be crucial for Gibson as he progresses in his career.

Looking at historical player data, 33 players were identified with similar profiles to Gibson in their early years. Most notably, Tyler Eames, who played for Saint Leo in 2021, stands out as the most optimistic comparison. Eames saw a significant improvement in his career post his initial performance, which was similar to Gibson's current stats. His subsequent shooting efficiency and assist rate ranked in the 93rd and 97th percentiles respectively, with his overall individual player efficiency skyrocketing to the 98th percentile.

Of the 33 players comparable to Gibson, 25 of them improved over time, which makes me feel good about Gibson's chances to become a more efficient player in future seasons. On average, the 25 who improved saw their shooting efficiency increase only marginally from the 73rd to the 74th percentile. However, their ball security improved significantly from the 37th to the 52nd percentile and assist rate from the 65th to the 71st percentile. This suggests that Gibson's future success may hinge on improving his ball security and assist rate, more so than shooting efficiency.

On the other end of the spectrum, the players whose performance declined over time saw a drop in their shooting efficiency from the 77th to the 50th percentile and assist rate from the 65th to the 44th percentile. Again, the differential in ball security was less pronounced.

Saint Rose had a turnover rate in the 49th percentile nationally, ranking 39th nationally. If Gibson, already performing above average in ball security, can further improve in this area while taking on a larger role, he could potentially turn this team weakness into a strength. Conversely, if his performance regresses, especially in ball security, it could have a detrimental effect on the team's turnover rate.

All in all, Noah Gibson's future career prospects look promising, provided he focuses on improving his ball security and assist rate, while maintaining his strong shooting efficiency. It may seem cliche to say that he needs to become more well-rounded, but it's true. His performance in a larger role could have significant implications for Saint Rose's overall performance, particularly in terms of team ball security.

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[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Thu Oct 5, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

Jordon Deats had solid 2023 campaign for Roberts Wesleyan, establishing himself as an above-average player in terms of efficiency metrics despite a significant increase in his role on the team. What made Deats' season particularly impressive was his ability to maintain a high level of performance even as his role expanded. And that role definitely did increase relative to last year. His usage rate went from 7.6% in 2022 to 9.6% in 2023 and the share of the team's shots that he took went from 11.2% to 19.1%. Despite the increased role and the increased attention he got from the opposing defenses, his individual efficiency rating went from the 59th percentile in 2022 to the 65th in 2023.

One of the most notable aspects of Deats' performance was his impressive ball security, which improved from the 54th percentile in 2022 to the 78th percentile in 2023. This significant improvement in ball security clearly indicates Deats' enhanced skills and effective decision-making under pressure, vital for any player with a larger role. Ball security may be less critical for a shooter than for a facilitator, but still, any time you see that kind of improvement, it's laudable.

Deats' best stretch of games occurred between Mar 11 and Apr 1, during which Roberts Wesleyan achieved a 3 - 1 record against opponents Saint Rose, Mercy, St. Thomas Aquinas, and District of Columbia. In this stretch, his individual efficiency rating soared to the 85th percentile, showing his ability to step up his game when it mattered most. This period was marked by a 41st percentile shooting efficiency, an impressive 88th percentile ball security, and a solid 51st percentile assist rate, demonstrating his contribution to the team in multiple areas.

However, every player has their ups and downs, and Deats' most challenging period came between Feb 21 and Mar 8. Despite Roberts Wesleyan maintaining the same 3 - 1 record against Davenport, Davis & Elkins, Assumption, and Le Moyne, Deats' individual efficiency rating fell to the 31st percentile. This stretch was characterized by a low 11th percentile shooting efficiency and a 23rd percentile assist rate, despite maintaining a 76th percentile ball security. Yes, he didn't see a large increase in turnovers, but he did become more one-dimensional during this stretch. And it's going to be a drag on the team when a player that takes nearly 20% of your shots has an 11th percentile shooting efficiency. That's something they'll need to figure out.

Interestingly, the team's success did not seem to hinge solely on Deats' performance, as illustrated by the consistent 3 - 1 record in both his best and worst stretches. This suggests that Roberts Wesleyan had a resilient team structure that could withstand individual fluctuations in performance.

Overall, Deats' 2023 season was characterized by his successful adaptation to a larger role, solid ball security, and his ability to perform well in crucial stretches of games. A below 50th percentile shooting efficiency for a player with usage patterns is obviously concerning, but let's not throw the baby out with the bath water here. His season serves as a compelling demonstration of a player stepping up when given a larger role, maintaining above-average efficiency, and contributing significantly to the team's success.

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[jakester]

How about my boys in Pickle town? Mount Olive

[laxreference]

How about my boys in Pickle town? Mount Olive

Offense, defense or a high-level survey? Do you have a preference?

[StuckinD2]

This was originally published in the Wed Oct 4, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

Noah Gibson emerged as a notable player for Saint Rose in the 2023 season, with an impressive 10.2% usage rate and contributing to 19.0% of the team's assists. His performance was marked by a 60th percentile ball security and an 80th percentile shooting efficiency, his best skill. However, his overall individual player efficiency stood at a modest 59th percentile, indicating scope for improvement.

Gibson's shooting efficiency is his standout skill. Ranking in the 80th percentile, he demonstrated a strong ability to create value on a per-shot basis. His shots were less likely to be saved by the opposing goalie (this is key in shooting efficiency as opposed to shooting percentage), reducing the opposition's transition opportunities. Maintaining this high level of shooting efficiency will be crucial for Gibson as he progresses in his career.

Looking at historical player data, 33 players were identified with similar profiles to Gibson in their early years. Most notably, Tyler Eames, who played for Saint Leo in 2021, stands out as the most optimistic comparison. Eames saw a significant improvement in his career post his initial performance, which was similar to Gibson's current stats. His subsequent shooting efficiency and assist rate ranked in the 93rd and 97th percentiles respectively, with his overall individual player efficiency skyrocketing to the 98th percentile.

Of the 33 players comparable to Gibson, 25 of them improved over time, which makes me feel good about Gibson's chances to become a more efficient player in future seasons. On average, the 25 who improved saw their shooting efficiency increase only marginally from the 73rd to the 74th percentile. However, their ball security improved significantly from the 37th to the 52nd percentile and assist rate from the 65th to the 71st percentile. This suggests that Gibson's future success may hinge on improving his ball security and assist rate, more so than shooting efficiency.

On the other end of the spectrum, the players whose performance declined over time saw a drop in their shooting efficiency from the 77th to the 50th percentile and assist rate from the 65th to the 44th percentile. Again, the differential in ball security was less pronounced.

Saint Rose had a turnover rate in the 49th percentile nationally, ranking 39th nationally. If Gibson, already performing above average in ball security, can further improve in this area while taking on a larger role, he could potentially turn this team weakness into a strength. Conversely, if his performance regresses, especially in ball security, it could have a detrimental effect on the team's turnover rate.

All in all, Noah Gibson's future career prospects look promising, provided he focuses on improving his ball security and assist rate, while maintaining his strong shooting efficiency. It may seem cliche to say that he needs to become more well-rounded, but it's true. His performance in a larger role could have significant implications for Saint Rose's overall performance, particularly in terms of team ball security.

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Would love to see the full write up for Saint Rose and Roberts if possible!

[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Wed Oct 4, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

Noah Gibson emerged as a notable player for Saint Rose in the 2023 season, with an impressive 10.2% usage rate and contributing to 19.0% of the team's assists. His performance was marked by a 60th percentile ball security and an 80th percentile shooting efficiency, his best skill. However, his overall individual player efficiency stood at a modest 59th percentile, indicating scope for improvement.

Gibson's shooting efficiency is his standout skill. Ranking in the 80th percentile, he demonstrated a strong ability to create value on a per-shot basis. His shots were less likely to be saved by the opposing goalie (this is key in shooting efficiency as opposed to shooting percentage), reducing the opposition's transition opportunities. Maintaining this high level of shooting efficiency will be crucial for Gibson as he progresses in his career.

Looking at historical player data, 33 players were identified with similar profiles to Gibson in their early years. Most notably, Tyler Eames, who played for Saint Leo in 2021, stands out as the most optimistic comparison. Eames saw a significant improvement in his career post his initial performance, which was similar to Gibson's current stats. His subsequent shooting efficiency and assist rate ranked in the 93rd and 97th percentiles respectively, with his overall individual player efficiency skyrocketing to the 98th percentile.

Of the 33 players comparable to Gibson, 25 of them improved over time, which makes me feel good about Gibson's chances to become a more efficient player in future seasons. On average, the 25 who improved saw their shooting efficiency increase only marginally from the 73rd to the 74th percentile. However, their ball security improved significantly from the 37th to the 52nd percentile and assist rate from the 65th to the 71st percentile. This suggests that Gibson's future success may hinge on improving his ball security and assist rate, more so than shooting efficiency.

On the other end of the spectrum, the players whose performance declined over time saw a drop in their shooting efficiency from the 77th to the 50th percentile and assist rate from the 65th to the 44th percentile. Again, the differential in ball security was less pronounced.

Saint Rose had a turnover rate in the 49th percentile nationally, ranking 39th nationally. If Gibson, already performing above average in ball security, can further improve in this area while taking on a larger role, he could potentially turn this team weakness into a strength. Conversely, if his performance regresses, especially in ball security, it could have a detrimental effect on the team's turnover rate.

All in all, Noah Gibson's future career prospects look promising, provided he focuses on improving his ball security and assist rate, while maintaining his strong shooting efficiency. It may seem cliche to say that he needs to become more well-rounded, but it's true. His performance in a larger role could have significant implications for Saint Rose's overall performance, particularly in terms of team ball security.

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Would love to see the full write up for Saint Rose and Roberts if possible!

I'll add Saint Rose to the list. In the meantime, here's the previously published Year-in-Review for Roberts.

[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Thu Oct 12, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The defense was the most glaring area of decline for Pace this season. Their opponents' shooting percentage increased from 23.5% in 2022 (5th nationally) to 26.9% in 2023 (27th nationally). It's even worse when you look at shooting efficiency, which focuses on the higher-leverage shots-on-cage; Pace was 3rd last year with respect to that metric. While the defense still posted a respectable opponent-adjusted efficiency of 25.1% (25th nationally), their inability to limit their opponents' shooting efficiency was a factor in their overall performance.

On the offensive end, Pace had a relatively consistent performance compared to 2022. Their opponent-adjusted efficiency remained stable at 32.0% in both the 2022 and 2023 seasons (22nd nationally). However, turnover rate was an area of concern, with an increase from 30.0% in 2022 (14th nationally) to 31.7% in 2023 (24th nationally). Jake Veres exemplified the trend, as he saw his turnover rate rise from 41.1% in 2022 to 61.7% in 2023. Now he only had the fifth highest play share on the team, so it wasn't just him. Despite these ball-security-related challenges, the offense maintained a solid level of performance throughout the season.

In terms of possession margin, Pace made significant improvements. Their per-game possession margin increased from +0.4 in 2022 (38th nationally) to +5.4 in 2023 (17th nationally). This improvement was primarily driven by their opp-adjusted faceoff win rate, which jumped from 48.0% in 2022 (41st nationally) to 58.3% in 2023 (23rd nationally). Not to rain on this parade too much, but I have to not that the faceoff unit's performance declined in the second half of the season, with a win rate of 54.2% compared to 63.1% in the first half. Regardless, even their lackluster second half was still better than their 2022 numbers.

Ultimately, the improvement in the possession game was the biggest success story Pace. With a significant increase in faceoff win rate, they were able to gain a greater share of possessions and maintain more control over the game. While there were areas of decline in both their defensive efficiency and offensive ball security, their ability to consistently win faceoffs made up for them. It ended being more or less a wash since their LaxElo ranking didn't change. The key question moving forward is whether the improvement at the faceoff dot is more durable than the decline on defense.

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[Daboi321]

This was originally published in the Thu Oct 12, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The defense was the most glaring area of decline for Pace this season. Their opponents' shooting percentage increased from 23.5% in 2022 (5th nationally) to 26.9% in 2023 (27th nationally). It's even worse when you look at shooting efficiency, which focuses on the higher-leverage shots-on-cage; Pace was 3rd last year with respect to that metric. While the defense still posted a respectable opponent-adjusted efficiency of 25.1% (25th nationally), their inability to limit their opponents' shooting efficiency was a factor in their overall performance.

On the offensive end, Pace had a relatively consistent performance compared to 2022. Their opponent-adjusted efficiency remained stable at 32.0% in both the 2022 and 2023 seasons (22nd nationally). However, turnover rate was an area of concern, with an increase from 30.0% in 2022 (14th nationally) to 31.7% in 2023 (24th nationally). Jake Veres exemplified the trend, as he saw his turnover rate rise from 41.1% in 2022 to 61.7% in 2023. Now he only had the fifth highest play share on the team, so it wasn't just him. Despite these ball-security-related challenges, the offense maintained a solid level of performance throughout the season.

In terms of possession margin, Pace made significant improvements. Their per-game possession margin increased from +0.4 in 2022 (38th nationally) to +5.4 in 2023 (17th nationally). This improvement was primarily driven by their opp-adjusted faceoff win rate, which jumped from 48.0% in 2022 (41st nationally) to 58.3% in 2023 (23rd nationally). Not to rain on this parade too much, but I have to not that the faceoff unit's performance declined in the second half of the season, with a win rate of 54.2% compared to 63.1% in the first half. Regardless, even their lackluster second half was still better than their 2022 numbers.

Ultimately, the improvement in the possession game was the biggest success story Pace. With a significant increase in faceoff win rate, they were able to gain a greater share of possessions and maintain more control over the game. While there were areas of decline in both their defensive efficiency and offensive ball security, their ability to consistently win faceoffs made up for them. It ended being more or less a wash since their LaxElo ranking didn't change. The key question moving forward is whether the improvement at the faceoff dot is more durable than the decline on defense.

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Would love to see the overall look for Lewis

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Would love to see the overall look for Lewis

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This was originally published in the Fri Oct 13, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The possession game was the biggest challenge (among several) for Shorter in the 2023 season. Their per-game possession margin remained relatively unchanged from 2022 with a negative margin of -17.0 (75th nationally), indicating consistent struggles in gaining possession. Their opponent-adjusted faceoff win rate dropped from 28.7% in 2022 (73rd nationally) to a dismal 25.4% in 2023 (75th nationally). The lack of success at the faceoff dot had a significant impact on the team's overall performance, as it limited their offensive opportunities and put more pressure on the defense.

On the offensive side, Shorter made some improvements in their efficiency. Their offensive efficiency increased from 16.1% in 2022 (72nd nationally) to 19.1% in 2023 (65th nationally). This improvement was driven by a slight increase in shooting percentage from 20.9% in 2022 (71st nationally) to 21.2% in 2023 (69th nationally). Their turnover rate also saw a minor improvement, going from 44.2% in 2022 (67th nationally) to 43.8% in 2023 (65th nationally). Jaden Sealey, who took a whopping 28% of the team's shots, was a big part of the improved shooting percentage. His 2023 campaign finished with a 30.8% shooting percentage compared to 24.0% in the previous season.

The defensive performance for Shorter was disappointing. Their defensive efficiency worsened, going from 37.0% in 2022 (74th nationally) to 40.0% in 2023 (71st nationally). This increase in opponent shooting efficiency was primarily due to a higher shooting percentage, which rose from 35.5% in 2022 (72nd nationally) to 38.5% in 2023 (73rd nationally). The defense struggled to make opponents uncomfortable and prevent them from converting their shots effectively.

Overall, the 2023 season was a mixed bag for Shorter. While they showed improvement in offensive efficiency and individual shooting percentages, their defensive performance suffered. The possession game remained a significant challenge for the team, as reflected in their low faceoff win rate and negative per-game possession margin. These mixed results highlight the need for continued improvement in all areas of the game to achieve better overall performance.

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