UNC 2024

[CU77]

ACC tourney win would move UNC up to around #15 or 16 in RPI. If they pulled that off, I think it would be awfully hard to leave them out of the NCAAs, similar to 2016, when UNC was #17 in RPI and got in (and won it all!)

[coda]

Inexcusable coaching blunder to be unaware of what it took to guarantee a post season bid. Coaching staff responsible for lack of post season play. Could have reminded the team of the five goal differential need.

There’s no ACC Automatic Qualifier.

UNC is too far back of the pack for an At Large.

The ACC is simply to secure the best possible NCAAs position.

Pretty sure he meant post-season as the ACC tournament, which would extend the UNC and give them a chance to get in the tournament. If UNC won the ACC tournament, there is a solid chance they get into the tournament. They would have ended with wins over Duke and 2 out of 3 from Cuse,ND, and UVa. Even if you think it was a long shot, it is still infinitely better odds than they have today

UNC is too far behind,
even if they were to run the table.

Its not just their winning,
they’d need way too many teams ahead of them to
fall off the cliff.

This is ridiculous. They would be on the bubble. You can say they would have a 10% chance to make it, but if my math is correct 10% >>>>> 0%. Not to mention getting at least one more game. It’s was coaching malpractice at its worst, trying to excuse it with “wouldn’t have mattered” is amazing

[coda]

ACC tourney win would move UNC up to around #15 or 16 in RPI. If they pulled that off, I think it would be awfully hard to leave them out of the NCAAs, similar to 2016, when UNC was #17 in RPI and got in (and won it all!)

Correct.. They would end the season with most impressive win streak of any team this season. That would be hard to ignore. Certainly not a lock, but again the chances are much better than their current 0% chance

[10stone5]

Inexcusable coaching blunder to be unaware of what it took to guarantee a post season bid. Coaching staff responsible for lack of post season play. Could have reminded the team of the five goal differential need.

There’s no ACC Automatic Qualifier.

UNC is too far back of the pack for an At Large.

The ACC is simply to secure the best possible NCAAs position.

Pretty sure he meant post-season as the ACC tournament, which would extend the UNC and give them a chance to get in the tournament. If UNC won the ACC tournament, there is a solid chance they get into the tournament. They would have ended with wins over Duke and 2 out of 3 from Cuse,ND, and UVa. Even if you think it was a long shot, it is still infinitely better odds than they have today

UNC is too far behind,
even if they were to run the table.

Its not just their winning,
they’d need way too many teams ahead of them to
fall off the cliff.

This is ridiculous. They would be on the bubble. You can say they would have a 10% chance to make it, but if my math is correct 10% >>>>> 0%. Not to mention getting at least one more game. It’s was coaching malpractice at its worst, trying to excuse it with “wouldn’t have mattered” is amazing

No they wouldn't.
They'd be outside the bubble.
They'd still have to somehow pass the teams in front of them with only a short time to make up that ground.
Which they'd have run out of the time needed to do that,
they should have won some of their earlier games.

Not do-able had they made the ACCs, which its a moot point since they did not.

What's ridiculous is the whining that the coaches didn't take the goal differential into consideration.
As if, that's all there was to UNC's poor season - and they would have, could have run the table into the NCAAs.

[coda]

Inexcusable coaching blunder to be unaware of what it took to guarantee a post season bid. Coaching staff responsible for lack of post season play. Could have reminded the team of the five goal differential need.

There’s no ACC Automatic Qualifier.

UNC is too far back of the pack for an At Large.

The ACC is simply to secure the best possible NCAAs position.

Pretty sure he meant post-season as the ACC tournament, which would extend the UNC and give them a chance to get in the tournament. If UNC won the ACC tournament, there is a solid chance they get into the tournament. They would have ended with wins over Duke and 2 out of 3 from Cuse,ND, and UVa. Even if you think it was a long shot, it is still infinitely better odds than they have today

UNC is too far behind,
even if they were to run the table.

Its not just their winning,
they’d need way too many teams ahead of them to
fall off the cliff.

This is ridiculous. They would be on the bubble. You can say they would have a 10% chance to make it, but if my math is correct 10% >>>>> 0%. Not to mention getting at least one more game. It’s was coaching malpractice at its worst, trying to excuse it with “wouldn’t have mattered” is amazing

No they wouldn't.
They'd be outside the bubble.
They'd still have to somehow pass the teams in front of them with only a short time to make up that ground.
Which they'd have run out of the time needed to do that,
they should have won some of their earlier games.

Not do-able had they made the ACCs, which its a moot point since they did not.

You beat Duke, Cuse, and ND in a 2 week stretch and you will move up. They did win the NC by getting in with a 17 RPI once before, so let’s not pretend that you know for a guarantee that they would not get in. They would have a top 15 RPI and the best wins of any team in the tournament. I dont think they would have strung together a 3 game win streak, but it is sad they didn’t get the opportunity. A coach is supposed to put his kids in the best position and that didn’t happen here. That is not debatable.

[wgdsr]

ACC tourney win would move UNC up to around #15 or 16 in RPI. If they pulled that off, I think it would be awfully hard to leave them out of the NCAAs, similar to 2016, when UNC was #17 in RPI and got in (and won it all!)

thanks cu77.
ok, it's 77's time of year! 15 or 16 sounds low to me. without knowing the exact numbers, seems unc would be over .590 with just the opponents' record, and then any bump on opp' opp'... can u plug in chalk in the big east and also cornell with the ilt win vs either opponent into your rpi calculator-thingy?

[Laxfan23]

Too bad all this “win by 5 and you’re in” controversy is detracting from a very gutsy total team performance. FOGO/goalie/defense/ offense all were clicking. Probably 1% of lax fans thought UNC would pull off a victory against Duke.
Even if they got in and had two improbable wins they would have been on the bubble. I would rather concentrate on the great total team effort and grit.
The key to success in life and sports is in preparation and frankly the UNC coaches let them down. Have to wonder if the furious 6-0 run by Duke was fueled by:” we can win, UNC has a history of late game collapses” OR lose by 4 or less and we are guaranteed a spot in the ACC tournament”??????

[10stone5]

^^^^ this

I'll even ignore some of the ludicrous notions,

and just mention, that 2016 team had much much better players.

But, that they should take this game and build on that, well that's a given, its obvious.

[CU77]

ACC tourney win would move UNC up to around #15 or 16 in RPI. If they pulled that off, I think it would be awfully hard to leave them out of the NCAAs, similar to 2016, when UNC was #17 in RPI and got in (and won it all!)

thanks cu77.
ok, it's 77's time of year! 15 or 16 sounds low to me. without knowing the exact numbers, seems unc would be over .590 with just the opponents' record, and then any bump on opp' opp'... can u plug in chalk in the big east and also cornell with the ilt win vs either opponent into your rpi calculator-thingy?

I did that. Ran the numbers with hypothetical ACC, ILT, B1G, & BE tournament results added, various combos (though not all possible combos, and I did not add the other conf tourneys). #15 was as high as I could get UNC to go.

UNC is #21 right now at 7-7, and the effect of 2 more games is just not enough to move it more than that.

EDIT: I learned that lacrossereference.com has an online RPI calculator that allows you to add games (and also models committee selection), so you can play around with it yourself:
https://pro.lacrossereference.com/selec ... tor-d1-men

[51percentcorn]

Does anyone know what the 4th tie-breaker would have been IF Carolina had held on to win by 5or more? Because then they would have been tied through the first 3 tiebreakers:
1-1 record against each other 1-3 record in the conference
All 3 lost to Notre Dame - all 3 lost to Syracuse
Goal differential amongst the 3 teams games would have been 0 (Duke beat UVA by more than 5/UVA beat UNC by more than 5)

What's the 4th?
I thought given Anish's and Qk's somewhat muddled discussion - it might have been goal differential amongst all ACC teams but I couldn't find it

[DocBarrister]

Inexcusable coaching blunder to be unaware of what it took to guarantee a post season bid. Coaching staff responsible for lack of post season play. Could have reminded the team of the five goal differential need.

There’s no ACC Automatic Qualifier.

UNC is too far back of the pack for an At Large.

The ACC is simply to secure the best possible NCAAs position.

Pretty sure he meant post-season as the ACC tournament, which would extend the UNC and give them a chance to get in the tournament. If UNC won the ACC tournament, there is a solid chance they get into the tournament. They would have ended with wins over Duke and 2 out of 3 from Cuse,ND, and UVa. Even if you think it was a long shot, it is still infinitely better odds than they have today

UNC is too far behind,
even if they were to run the table.

Its not just their winning,
they’d need way too many teams ahead of them to
fall off the cliff.

This is ridiculous. They would be on the bubble. You can say they would have a 10% chance to make it, but if my math is correct 10% >>>>> 0%. Not to mention getting at least one more game. It’s was coaching malpractice at its worst, trying to excuse it with “wouldn’t have mattered” is amazing

No they wouldn't.
They'd be outside the bubble.
They'd still have to somehow pass the teams in front of them with only a short time to make up that ground.
Which they'd have run out of the time needed to do that,
they should have won some of their earlier games.

Not do-able had they made the ACCs, which its a moot point since they did not.

You beat Duke, Cuse, and ND in a 2 week stretch and you will move up. They did win the NC by getting in with a 17 RPI once before, so let’s not pretend that you know for a guarantee that they would not get in. They would have a top 15 RPI and the best wins of any team in the tournament. I dont think they would have strung together a 3 game win streak, but it is sad they didn’t get the opportunity. A coach is supposed to put his kids in the best position and that didn’t happen here. That is not debatable.

Had UNC beaten Duke by five goals and then won the ACC tournament (including a win over ND), the Tar Heels would have been impossible to keep out of the NCAA tournament.

Notre Dame would have lost to just two teams in that scenario. The NCAA tournament committee wouldn’t have kept one of them out if they could help it.

All water under the bridge at this point.

DocBarrister

[stupefied]

Blowing a large lead to main rival Duke at home would have made a hot seat hotter .


Breschi is a good man but results have disappointed for awhile now. Possibility that this could have been his last game.


Wonder if that factored into thinking , Slowing and playing clock to secure the win rather than pushing late to try to restore margin needed to guarantee acc tourney spot.


Do believe that the win flipped the percentages in favor of him returning

[coda]

Blowing a large lead to main rival Duke at home would have made a hot seat hotter .


Breschi is a good man but results have disappointed for awhile now. Possibility that this could have been his last game.


Wonder if that factored into thinking , Slowing and playing clock to secure the win rather than pushing late to try to restore margin needed to guarantee acc tourney spot.


Do believe that the win flipped the percentages in favor of him returning

i get that, but they took the shot clock violation on their last possession vs an empty net. They could have went to score on the empty net with 30-40 seconds left. Made it a 4 goal lead and left it to Wambach (67% on the day) to try and make it 5. At that point you would not risk the W.. There maybe some truth to Breschi putting his job security over the kids, but I am not going to pretend to know what was going on in Breschi's head.

[GaitsRightHand]

Has anyone heard exactly what happened to duffy? Big knee brace on sideline, hoping it wasn't an ACL or something serious.

[51percentcorn]

So I guess - based upon a printed sentence by IL "The Tar Heels also controlled their destiny, though that was a little more complicated. If they won by five or more goals they automatically locked in a spot for the ACC Tournament because of goal differential in ACC play." - that the 4th tie-breaker was goal differential in the entirety of ACC play which then makes sense. A 5 goal loss by Duke against UNC would have put them at -8 for the ACC and a 5 goal win by UNC would have put them at -6. The worst UVA could have done was -6 if they had lost by 5 or more against Notre Dame so in that scenario Duke was out. It certainly appears based upon everything I saw during the telecast - UNC was either unaware or forgot - both are truly inexcusable - the DOLO should be doing the math and making the head coach aware of every possible scenario but the head coach should also be looking at the standings and saying "UVA can certainly lose to the #1 team in the country and if we beat Duke everyone is 1-3 - what happens then?" It's not his job but I wonder if it ever entered Petro's mind.

[HopFan16]

There's simply no way they didn't know about the goal differential thing, right? Like there's no way. The thing is, knowing about it but still not trying to go for the 5-goal win at the end also makes no sense. Either way it makes no sense.

It wasn't even that much of a longshot either. It's not like there were only 5 seconds left. Score on the empty net, then you only need one more goal with 20-30 seconds remaining. Certainly can be done. They scored three times in that amount of time to end the first half. Can only imagine what the Hopkins or Cuse threads would be like if their playoff lives were on the line and the staff made such an inexplicable error.

[Powellfan22]

This sums it up: gritty win by UNC players who never gave up on themselves…..great lasting memory on a disappointing season.

Inexcusable coaching blunder to be unaware of what it took to guarantee a post season bid. Coaching staff responsible for lack of post season play. Could have reminded the team of the five goal differential need. Someone needs to take responsibility.

Despite that blunder, i prefer to think arrow is pointing up. Three ACC teams lose a lot, UNC returning key pieces, strong incoming additions, and they showed they can hang with Syracuse/ Duke/ ND for a half, etc….i prefer to be optimistic though i expect the negative naysayers to have their input, too.
Congrats to UNC for a great win yesterday

I think more than three ACC teams ‘lose a lot’ next year. Cuse, UVA, Duke, and ND lose major pieces. That’s four teams.

Also, I think Joe, to the extent his job had any doubt, put away any discussion of not returning. There’s almost zero chance the AD is aware of the goal differential issue. The Heels return who they need to, have a great recruiting class (again), and bring back a major piece of lacrosse success, the FOGO. You’d have to assume they’ll be strong next year.

UVA, Duke and Notre Dame lose very good players, including arguably the three best players in either teams history. That said, I think UVA and Notre Dame return a lot of good players. I may be crazy, but both teams should be ranked in the top 10 to start things off next year, with ND being in the top five most likely.

Duke is a different story, they will have to rebuild their entire attack line (the focus of their offense) and lose their best defender and FOGO.

Syracuse does lose some important pieces including their goalie, but they return the bulk of their core and their top ranked sophomore class will be juniors. I could very easily see them ranked in the top five at the start of next season.

I think I see UNC battling it out with Duke next year for that fourth spot in the ACC, but of course the transfer portal could change things wildly. Getting ahead of myself, and I could be way off, but I still think it's an uphill climb for UNC next year.

[Finster]

This sums it up: gritty win by UNC players who never gave up on themselves…..great lasting memory on a disappointing season.

Inexcusable coaching blunder to be unaware of what it took to guarantee a post season bid. Coaching staff responsible for lack of post season play. Could have reminded the team of the five goal differential need. Someone needs to take responsibility.

Despite that blunder, i prefer to think arrow is pointing up. Three ACC teams lose a lot, UNC returning key pieces, strong incoming additions, and they showed they can hang with Syracuse/ Duke/ ND for a half, etc….i prefer to be optimistic though i expect the negative naysayers to have their input, too.
Congrats to UNC for a great win yesterday

I think more than three ACC teams ‘lose a lot’ next year. Cuse, UVA, Duke, and ND lose major pieces. That’s four teams.

Also, I think Joe, to the extent his job had any doubt, put away any discussion of not returning. There’s almost zero chance the AD is aware of the goal differential issue. The Heels return who they need to, have a great recruiting class (again), and bring back a major piece of lacrosse success, the FOGO. You’d have to assume they’ll be strong next year.

UVA, Duke and Notre Dame lose very good players, including arguably the three best players in either teams history. That said, I think UVA and Notre Dame return a lot of good players. I may be crazy, but both teams should be ranked in the top 10 to start things off next year, with ND being in the top five most likely.

Duke is a different story, they will have to rebuild their entire attack line (the focus of their offense) and lose their best defender and FOGO.

Syracuse does lose some important pieces including their goalie, but they return the bulk of their core and their top ranked sophomore class will be juniors. I could very easily see them ranked in the top five at the start of next season.

I think I see UNC battling it out with Duke next year for that fourth spot in the ACC, but of course the transfer portal could change things wildly. Getting ahead of myself, and I could be way off, but I still think it's an uphill climb for UNC next year.

My concerns on Syracuse are losing Will Mark and Mason Kohn. Those are critical pieces this year. They will be ranked high, no doubt, but Kohn and Mark are critical elements to replace.

[wgdsr]

So I guess - based upon a printed sentence by IL "The Tar Heels also controlled their destiny, though that was a little more complicated. If they won by five or more goals they automatically locked in a spot for the ACC Tournament because of goal differential in ACC play." - that the 4th tie-breaker was goal differential in the entirety of ACC play which then makes sense. A 5 goal loss by Duke against UNC would have put them at -8 for the ACC and a 5 goal win by UNC would have put them at -6. The worst UVA could have done was -6 if they had lost by 5 or more against Notre Dame so in that scenario Duke was out. It certainly appears based upon everything I saw during the telecast - UNC was either unaware or forgot - both are truly inexcusable - the DOLO should be doing the math and making the head coach aware of every possible scenario but the head coach should also be looking at the standings and saying "UVA can certainly lose to the #1 team in the country and if we beat Duke everyone is 1-3 - what happens then?" It's not his job but I wonder if it ever entered Petro's mind.

pretty sure that's not how it works. it was tough to find last week so i gave up.

but it used to work like this, and i'm pretty sure it still does:
- uva was + 2 in its 2 games vs unc and duke
- duke was + 6 in its uva game
- so if unc won by 5, duke would then be + 1, and then they install uva as the 3 seed. then unc vs duke would start over, with head-to-head.
had unc won by 4, uva and duke would be tied, but with 2 spots available, they would each get them. and then for seed it would be head-to-head.

[51percentcorn]

I am with you wg... except everyone keeps referring to this goal differential cap of 5 goals - so it doesn't matter whether you win/lose by 5 or 25 it still counts as 5 so my lizard brain is saying that IF Carolina had held on to at least a 5 goal margin - then UVA/Duke/UNC are all net ZERO. Each team would have beat one of the other teams by 5 or more goals so you have a +5 and a -5. My interpretation of the Inside Lacrosse statement - because I couldn't find it either was that the next tiebreaker is goal differential - again with the +/- 5 goal cap - amongst all ACC opponents and UVA and UNC would have qualified under that scenario.

So my understanding of what actually happened is that Duke is a +2 (Beat UVA by cap of 5 - lost to Carolina by 3) UVA is a 0 (won by the cap of 5 over UNC and lost by the cap of 5 to Duke) and Carolina was -2 (lost by cap of 5 to UVA - won by 3 over Duke) So Duke wins the tie breaker amongst the 3 and then UVA gets the nod by virtue of the H2H win over Carolina.