All Things Russia & Ukraine

[jhu72]

... an interesting 20 minute piece of strategic discussion.

Wishful thinking. Kaliningrad remains a strategic first strike platform in the heart of NATO.
Russia will go to war, if necessary, to keep it from seceding. NATO is afraid to restrict land access through Lithuania.
Sweden & Finland did not enter NATO to go to war to "liberate" Kaliningrad.

... I don't think the author said he believed Kaliningrad would disappear overnight. He clearly saw this taking an extended period of time. I also don't think Sweden and Finland entered NATO to liberate Kaliningrad. I think the author is correct, long term, Kaliningrad is of significantly less value to Russia.

You could just as easily make the case that Sweden & Finland joining NATO makes Kalilningrad even more strategically valuable to Russia, due to it's location. Not unlike Crimea in the Black Sea or Gibraltar for the Brits. The last thing NATO wants is to make Kaliningrad a flash point. ...unless Soros & Nuland make it their next target to foment a color revolution.

Don't see the strategic use of Kaliningrad. NATO doesn't need to beat its head against Suwalki. Don't see NATO just doing it for grins. Easier way to reinforce Baltic allies with Sweden and Finland in the mix. Where NATO has a huge advantage over the Russians. Kaliningrad can only go on the offensive and is in a position where NATO can totally isolate them. Resupply for Kaliningrad is a bigger problem than the resupply of the Baltic states ever was. I think that is the authors argument.

As I said, Kaliningrad's strategic value is as a first strike platform located in the heart of Europe. If the threat of Russia taking the Suwalki gap is not a credible threat, why do we bother deploying an armored brigade to Poland & the Baltic states ? NATO's advantage there is not that great. Our NATO allies are still struggling to provide tanks & other armor to the NATO tripwire battlegroups deployed to the Baltic states.

https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/20 ... fense.html
https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/an ... tic-states
https://www.gov.pl/web/national-defence ... 20presence.

... things will change as we move forward in time. The author is looking downstream.

[old salt]

Russia has more to worry about than Kaliningrad. This could just be bluster or it could be real. It is certainly a problem for Putin, it is a reminder of what he already knows -- Belarus is not exactly an all in ally. The government has been under attack before. It is fascist state not being ruled by the consent of the people.

Another take.

Maybe that's what Victoria Nuland is doing since she left govt service.
She could be making sandwiches for the next color revolution.

[jhu72]

Moldova and Transnistria are in the news a lot more recently. Transnistria is looking for Russia to place troops in their territory, between Ukraine and Moldova.

[old salt]

Some good news :

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-rethinks- ... a-68248353

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-war-how-t ... a-68350366

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-starts-wo ... a-68231509

Some U.S. military aid is still trickling into Ukraine via arms dealers, contracts suggest.
Companies that have previously supplied Ukraine are now competing to provide “special ammunition” worth $624 million.

[jhu72]

How about that? Russian Orthodox Church seen as spies.

[jhu72]

Some good news :

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-rethinks- ... a-68248353 even a blind sow ...

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-war-how-t ... a-68350366

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-starts-wo ... a-68231509

Some U.S. military aid is still trickling into Ukraine via arms dealers, contracts suggest.
Companies that have previously supplied Ukraine are now competing to provide “special ammunition” worth $624 million. -- this is not surprising, had guessed as much.

[old salt]

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-rethinks- ... a-68248353 even a blind sow ...

Sauerbraten.

[jhu72]

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-rethinks- ... a-68248353 even a blind sow ...

Sauerbraten.

... assume that was a question, yes I rather like it.

[PizzaSnake]

Russia has more to worry about than Kaliningrad. This could just be bluster or it could be real. It is certainly a problem for Putin, it is a reminder of what he already knows -- Belarus is not exactly an all in ally. The government has been under attack before. It is fascist state not being ruled by the consent of the people.

Another take.

Maybe that's what Victoria Nuland is doing since she left govt service.
She could be making sandwiches for the next color revolution.

Maybe you could continue your service with Meals on Wheels.

[old salt]

Russia has more to worry about than Kaliningrad. This could just be bluster or it could be real. It is certainly a problem for Putin, it is a reminder of what he already knows -- Belarus is not exactly an all in ally. The government has been under attack before. It is fascist state not being ruled by the consent of the people.

Another take.

Maybe that's what Victoria Nuland is doing since she left govt service.
She could be making sandwiches for the next color revolution.

Maybe you could continue your service with Meals on Wheels.

I did for > 10 yrs while retired in SoMd. I don't feel safe doing it in my present locale.

[jhu72]

Finland gives Ukraine permission to use Finnish aid anywhere inside Russia they like, to hit military targets.

[cradleandshoot]

Russia has more to worry about than Kaliningrad. This could just be bluster or it could be real. It is certainly a problem for Putin, it is a reminder of what he already knows -- Belarus is not exactly an all in ally. The government has been under attack before. It is fascist state not being ruled by the consent of the people.

Another take.

Maybe that's what Victoria Nuland is doing since she left govt service.
She could be making sandwiches for the next color revolution.

Maybe you could continue your service with Meals on Wheels.

I did for > 10 yrs while retired in SoMd. I don't feel safe doing it in my present locale.

I use to help out Habitat for Humanity many years ago. That was before some people would show up with their new tee shirts and brandy new hammers and bump caps and then disappear into the VIP tent for the rest of the day. I don't think any of them were capable of swinging a 28 ounce framing hammer. They sure as hell had no business getting anywhere near a nail gun. They were the useful idiots always there for a photo op.

[jhu72]

Brian Fitzpatrick (R) is going to submit a Discharge Petition for the Ukrainian Aid Package. Looks like if should be ready by mid-March.

Getting onboard before being run over?

[cradleandshoot]

I just read this a couple of minutes ago. The leak was reported by a German source. There may be and I emphasize maybe, that there are some British soldiers on the ground in Ukraine advising the folks in yellow and blue how to use and deploy munitions given to them by the Brits. If true this report should get very interesting very quickly.

[jhu72]

Looks like the Russian Oligarchs are betting on the collapse of Russia.

[old salt]

Interesting good natured panel discussion, including VDH & HR McMaster,
on Ukraine, Israel, foreign policy & Trump v Biden.

[jhu72]

Germany crawling with Russian spies.

[youthathletics]

Looks like the Russian Oligarchs are betting on the collapse of Russia.

Interesting article.....What's your take on the 'long look'. There is a part of me that believes Putin is a playing the role of a martyr and envious of inclusion and the west; probably wrong, just a sneaking suspicion.

[jhu72]

Looks like the Russian Oligarchs are betting on the collapse of Russia.

Interesting article.....What's your take on the 'long look'. There is a part of me that believes Putin is a playing the role of a martyr and envious of inclusion and the west; probably wrong, just a sneaking suspicion.

Putin is scared to death, playing the tough guy. Putin's old boys club is tired of his war screwing with their money. He is not long for the world. Russia likely disintegrates when he is dead. The underbosses want their own countries.

[old salt]

Looks like the Russian Oligarchs are betting on the collapse of Russia.

Interesting article.....What's your take on the 'long look'. There is a part of me that believes Putin is a playing the role of a martyr and envious of inclusion and the west; probably wrong, just a sneaking suspicion.

Putin is scared to death, playing the tough guy. Putin's old boys club is tired of his war screwing with their money. He is not long for the world. Russia likely disintegrates when he is dead. The underbosses want their own countries.

...there will be Sorosastan & Nulandia.