NCAA Championship Probabilities

[laf]

MD1: https://laxmath.com/men/rating001x.php

1. Notre Dame (19.2%)
2. Virginia (18.6%)
3. Duke (12.6%)

MD2: https://laxmath.com/men/rating002x.php

1. LeMoyne (22.4%
2. Rollins (19.0%)
3. Tampa (9.0%)

MD3: https://laxmath.com/men/rating003x.php

1. Tufts (25.0%)
2. RIT (14.6%)
3. Middlebury (13.0%)

WD1: https://laxmath.com/wom/rating001x.php

1. Northwestern (26.5%)
2. Syracuse (13.5%)
3. Loyola (10.0%)

WD2: https://laxmath.com/wom/rating002x.php

1. Pace (20.0%)
2. West Chester (16.5%)
3. LeMoyne (14.5%)

WD3: https://laxmath.com/wom/rating003x.php

1. Middlebury (35.5%)
2. Washington & Lee (10.0%)
3. Colby/Wesleyan (9.5%

[Mainelaxfan]

If the two top ranked teams from D2 and D3 crossed over to play in both Men’s and Women’s Lacrosse ( Tufts vs LeMoyne and Middlebury vs Pace) what do you think the outcome and score would be?

[The12lov3]

If the two top ranked teams from D2 and D3 crossed over to play in both Men’s and Women’s Lacrosse ( Tufts vs LeMoyne and Middlebury vs Pace) what do you think the outcome and score would be?

I don't really think there is that much difference between d3 and d2. You have to remember that the top ranked teams in the country for d2 and d3 - most of those players were recruited at Div1 schools and made the decision to play D3 or D2 because 1) they want to play sooner in their careers 2) they wanted to play for a team that would complete for a NC vs a team that would just compete 3) they did not want make the time committment of d1 but still wanted to play lacrosse for big time program 4) Academically the school was the best school they got into and chose to play d3/d2 for a more academically prestigious school vs d1 at a less prestigious school. My point is that they would be competitive games because the caliber of players are the same.

[Bigdawg69]

If the two top ranked teams from D2 and D3 crossed over to play in both Men’s and Women’s Lacrosse ( Tufts vs LeMoyne and Middlebury vs Pace) what do you think the outcome and score would be?

I don't really think there is that much difference between d3 and d2. You have to remember that the top ranked teams in the country for d2 and d3 - most of those players were recruited at Div1 schools and made the decision to play D3 or D2 because 1) they want to play sooner in their careers 2) they wanted to play for a team that would complete for a NC vs a team that would just compete 3) they did not want make the time committment of d1 but still wanted to play lacrosse for big time program 4) Academically the school was the best school they got into and chose to play d3/d2 for a more academically prestigious school vs d1 at a less prestigious school. My point is that they would be competitive games because the caliber of players are the same.

Spot on

[Bigdawg69]

Common phrase when I played d3 was always “in high level d3 you either have the athleticism and size of d1 and stick skills of d3. Or you have d1 caliber stick skills but d3 in terms of size and athleticism

[RamsFan]

If the two top ranked teams from D2 and D3 crossed over to play in both Men’s and Women’s Lacrosse ( Tufts vs LeMoyne and Middlebury vs Pace) what do you think the outcome and score would be?

No idea on the women’s side but for men, I don’t think d2 could stay within 10 pts of the d3 team. If you go watch a few high end d2 and d3 games back to back the difference becomes pretty obvious.

In fact, if you had the top ten ranked d2 v d3 games, I think it would end up 10-0 d3.

There are obviously occasionally exceptions, but it’s a very different level game. I doubt many of the top d2 teams could even make the Nescac tourney.

Not hating, just being realistic.

[Unknown Participant]

If the two top ranked teams from D2 and D3 crossed over to play in both Men’s and Women’s Lacrosse ( Tufts vs LeMoyne and Middlebury vs Pace) what do you think the outcome and score would be?

I don't really think there is that much difference between d3 and d2. You have to remember that the top ranked teams in the country for d2 and d3 - most of those players were recruited at Div1 schools and made the decision to play D3 or D2 because 1) they want to play sooner in their careers 2) they wanted to play for a team that would complete for a NC vs a team that would just compete 3) they did not want make the time committment of d1 but still wanted to play lacrosse for big time program 4) Academically the school was the best school they got into and chose to play d3/d2 for a more academically prestigious school vs d1 at a less prestigious school. My point is that they would be competitive games because the caliber of players are the same.

Just an fyi. There aren't a lot of academically "prestigious" D2 schools, I would say 2-3. Considering the number of DIII schools with lax, there aren't that many either ... about 25-30. While in D1 you have some of the Big East, most of the Big10, ACC, and Patriot and all of the Ivy.

[Laxattackjack]

If the two top ranked teams from D2 and D3 crossed over to play in both Men’s and Women’s Lacrosse ( Tufts vs LeMoyne and Middlebury vs Pace) what do you think the outcome and score would be?

I don't really think there is that much difference between d3 and d2. You have to remember that the top ranked teams in the country for d2 and d3 - most of those players were recruited at Div1 schools and made the decision to play D3 or D2 because 1) they want to play sooner in their careers 2) they wanted to play for a team that would complete for a NC vs a team that would just compete 3) they did not want make the time committment of d1 but still wanted to play lacrosse for big time program 4) Academically the school was the best school they got into and chose to play d3/d2 for a more academically prestigious school vs d1 at a less prestigious school. My point is that they would be competitive games because the caliber of players are the same.

Completely disagree with this. Most of the top talented kids go top level D1 (top 50-60 teams). The bottom 20% of D1 tend to get mid level kids that wouldn’t get playing time on top level D3 teams. But about 1/3 of the top talent coming out of HS won’t go D1 because of grades or they don’t want the “full time job” aspect of D1/D2 sports. Many of those kids will go to top level D3. My sons freshman recruit class (D3) had 15 kids. 6 of those kids had upper-mid level D1 schools that wanted them, but they chose D3 because they didn’t want the full time job and wanted a better chance to play earlier. The county that he played HS, is one of the best in the country. Lots of D1 and several upper D3 commits. Not many D2 commits over the past 2-3 years. There is no advantage/reason for kids to pick D2 over D1 other than talent. With that said, of course D2 are still getting some top level kids. Just not as many
I think most people would agree if the top 20 D3 teams played the top 20 D2 (#1 tufts vs #1 Le Moyne, #2 vs #2, etc). D3 will will most, if not all of the matchups.

Massey rates all levels of college lacrosse. They will even rank all NCAA schools in one ranking. Tufts is the top D3 on the list, at ranking 18. RIT is the next D3, at 38. Le Moyne comes in 73. Right behind Gettysburgh at 72, in front of York at 75. Gettysburgh is the 11th ranked D3 and York is the 12th ranked D3

[A151515]

If the two top ranked teams from D2 and D3 crossed over to play in both Men’s and Women’s Lacrosse ( Tufts vs LeMoyne and Middlebury vs Pace) what do you think the outcome and score would be?

No idea on the women’s side but for men, I don’t think d2 could stay within 10 pts of the d3 team. If you go watch a few high end d2 and d3 games back to back the difference becomes pretty obvious.

In fact, if you had the top ten ranked d2 v d3 games, I think it would end up 10-0 d3.

There are obviously occasionally exceptions, but it’s a very different level game. I doubt many of the top d2 teams could even make the Nescac tourney.

Not hating, just being realistic.

This is definitely true. For example, Babson who is a borderline top 20 team in D3 scrimmaged Bentley this year who is number 9 in the country for D2 and beat them by 5+ goals. While it was a scrimmage, both teams played their top guys for most of the game so it was a pretty accurate representation of how a game would go. I have found that fans of D2 lacrosse do not like to accept the fact that top D3 teams are better despite it being generally accepted by most people in the lacrosse community.

[InsiderRoll]

I know W&L scrimmages Lenoir-Rhyne in the fall. I believe it was a tie or one goal game. Both are top ten teams i their respective divisions.

[DataLax]

I know W&L scrimmages Lenoir-Rhyne in the fall. I believe it was a tie or one goal game. Both are top ten teams i their respective divisions.

D2 has come a long way. Not saying they would fare well 1v1, 2v2, 3v3 etc…but there would be overlap in the top 10s.

It’s actually interesting. If you look at the overall Massey Ratings LaxAttackJack was referencing, W&L and LR are 80th and 81st. LeMoyne and Tampa are right behind Dickinson and Gettysburg…May not be that far off.

I do think Salisbury, Tufts, RIT are still ahead if you had a 7 game series. I do think D2 drops off depth wise a lot more after its top 10.

[The12lov3]

If the two top ranked teams from D2 and D3 crossed over to play in both Men’s and Women’s Lacrosse ( Tufts vs LeMoyne and Middlebury vs Pace) what do you think the outcome and score would be?

I don't really think there is that much difference between d3 and d2. You have to remember that the top ranked teams in the country for d2 and d3 - most of those players were recruited at Div1 schools and made the decision to play D3 or D2 because 1) they want to play sooner in their careers 2) they wanted to play for a team that would complete for a NC vs a team that would just compete 3) they did not want make the time committment of d1 but still wanted to play lacrosse for big time program 4) Academically the school was the best school they got into and chose to play d3/d2 for a more academically prestigious school vs d1 at a less prestigious school. My point is that they would be competitive games because the caliber of players are the same.

Completely disagree with this. Most of the top talented kids go top level D1 (top 50-60 teams). The bottom 20% of D1 tend to get mid level kids that wouldn’t get playing time on top level D3 teams. But about 1/3 of the top talent coming out of HS won’t go D1 because of grades or they don’t want the “full time job” aspect of D1/D2 sports. Many of those kids will go to top level D3. My sons freshman recruit class (D3) had 15 kids. 6 of those kids had upper-mid level D1 schools that wanted them, but they chose D3 because they didn’t want the full time job and wanted a better chance to play earlier. The county that he played HS, is one of the best in the country. Lots of D1 and several upper D3 commits. Not many D2 commits over the past 2-3 years. There is no advantage/reason for kids to pick D2 over D1 other than talent. With that said, of course D2 are still getting some top level kids. Just not as many
I think most people would agree if the top 20 D3 teams played the top 20 D2 (#1 tufts vs #1 Le Moyne, #2 vs #2, etc). D3 will will most, if not all of the matchups.

Massey rates all levels of college lacrosse. They will even rank all NCAA schools in one ranking. Tufts is the top D3 on the list, at ranking 18. RIT is the next D3, at 38. Le Moyne comes in 73. Right behind Gettysburgh at 72, in front of York at 75. Gettysburgh is the 11th ranked D3 and York is the 12th ranked D3

Sounds like we agree on why kids go to d3 vs D1 schools but disagree on d2 vs d3. Personally I think having a d2 with the little amount of teams they have is stupid and they should move them into d1 or d3 and just have two divisions

[Leonard Washington]

Personally I think having a d2 with the little amount of teams they have is stupid and they should move them into d1 or d3 and just have two divisions

D1 and D2 have around the same amount of teams. While I figure a little of your post is in jest, we know dissolving D2 across the board for all sports (can't just be for lacrosse) isn't happening anytime soon

[D2fan]

This debate happens every year and is foolish.

From what I have seen, there is not much difference between RIT, Mercyhurst and Le Moyne. Yet Massey has RIT blowing both teams out (Which is never the case).

I watched Le Moyne and RIT in the fall of 2021 scrimmage in which Le Moyne was up 7-6 when starters were pulled.

By everyone’s reasoning, Le Moyne was 15 goals better than Tufts last year.

Now I know that is not the case. I live in Central NY, I’ve never seen a NESCAC game. I just assume they are very good. Just like how most of you guys have never been to a game in Syracuse, Erie PA (Mercyhurst), Gaffney SC (Limestone), or Tampa FL (Tampa).

Just sit back and enjoy the tournament.

[The12lov3]

Personally I think having a d2 with the little amount of teams they have is stupid and they should move them into d1 or d3 and just have two divisions

D1 and D2 have around the same amount of teams. While I figure a little of your post is in jest, we know dissolving D2 across the board for all sports (can't just be for lacrosse) isn't happening anytime soon

To be honest, I did not know there were that many teams because most of the schools are really small and I don't really follow. In any case, they should get rid of d2.

[Leonard Washington]

To be honest, I did not know there were that many teams because most of the schools are really small and I don't really follow. In any case, they should get rid of d2.

Football, Basketball and Baseball aren't having any of that any time soon.

D2 does have a few teams that can play/hang with the top 10 to 20 in D3.

Adelphi, Lemoyne, Limestone, LR, Mercyhurst, Rollins, Tampa, UIndy and Wingate come to mind

[lax1983]

If the two top ranked teams from D2 and D3 crossed over to play in both Men’s and Women’s Lacrosse ( Tufts vs LeMoyne and Middlebury vs Pace) what do you think the outcome and score would be?

No idea on the women’s side but for men, I don’t think d2 could stay within 10 pts of the d3 team. If you go watch a few high end d2 and d3 games back to back the difference becomes pretty obvious.

In fact, if you had the top ten ranked d2 v d3 games, I think it would end up 10-0 d3.

There are obviously occasionally exceptions, but it’s a very different level game. I doubt many of the top d2 teams could even make the Nescac tourney.

Not hating, just being realistic.

This is definitely true. For example, Babson who is a borderline top 20 team in D3 scrimmaged Bentley this year who is number 9 in the country for D2 and beat them by 5+ goals. While it was a scrimmage, both teams played their top guys for most of the game so it was a pretty accurate representation of how a game would go. I have found that fans of D2 lacrosse do not like to accept the fact that top D3 teams are better despite it being generally accepted by most people in the lacrosse community.

This is actually incorrect, I watched the Hudl film on this game and Bentley and Babson tied in a scrimmage, ironically Babson gave a nice whipping to a Nescac team in the NCAA playoffs today.

I actually was posting about this in the d2 channel but I think the division has taken a big step back given all the d1 transitions. That being said claiming a d2 team couldn't make the nescac tournament is classic d3 pontification. I actually think in the heyday of the NE-10 (Merrimack, bryant le Moyne) that this confrence was stronger top to bottom.

Here's a nice video of Saint Anselm schlacking Conn college this in the spring who gave tufts two good games and made the nescac playoffs....

http://www.hudl.com/v/2KYGh3

[Frank Rizzo]

Lets not use Middlebury and Championship in the same sentence after today. St Marys punched them in the mouth

[Leonard Washington]

Lets not use Middlebury and Championship in the same sentence after today.

Couldn't disagree more.

https://athletics.middlebury.edu/news/2 ... iller.aspx

[ah23]

Here's a nice video of Saint Anselm schlacking Conn college this in the spring who gave tufts two good games and made the nescac playoffs....

http://www.hudl.com/v/2KYGh3

Conn College was a sub-.500 team that was the 8-seed in the NESCAC tourney and lost to Tufts by fourteen goals the second time they played.