LaxPower Back-Up Stick

Michigan wins the Big 10 and gets a road game. Cornell looks good for much of the season but can’t get to the IL championship. Michigan has two FOGOs who are better than Cornell’s. Adler is an elite dman capable of nullifying an opponent’s best attackman. Who would that be on Michigan? All three can feed and score. Will Cornell try a zone? Michigan has used a grad student and a freshmauin the goal. The freshman finished the Penn State game and played the entire Maryland game. Cornell’s goalie has to be better than he looked in the ILT.
Cornell has a legitimate T candidate at attack. Is the offensive supporting cast strong enough to put up double figures against the Wolverines?
Cornell has the edge in star power, but once you get past those two, Michigan is more balanced and deeper. Are the Wolverines content just to have won the Big 10 and to have made their first NCAAT, or are they ready to advance?
In a first round upset, I lean towards the visitors by about three.

Most likely “upset,” I think.

Michigan 15, Cornell 13.

DocBarrister

This again should be a great game and this was a very tough draw for Cornell.

Getting the BIG champions, from a league that includes PSU, JHU and MD , is about as tough a 1st round draw that a team could get.

That being said, if the Red can somehow come away with a victory, it would be a great confidence booster going forward in the tournament, much like their 1st round win last year against OSU helped propel them to the NC against MD.

Another game that has all the makings of a 1 goal 4th quarter game or OT.

Anyway, just glad it's at the Kopf and can't wait till 230 Sunday afternoon.
Gobigred
Joewillie78

Cornell has lost three games this season. After losing to Penn State, Cornell's next game was a 20-10 thrashing of Yale in New Haven. After losing to Harvard, Cornell's next game was a 21-11 win over Marquette. I dare say that there's a pattern there somewhere, and I expect to see Cornell back at its best Sunday: sharp, focused, far superior to the version of Cornell we saw Friday evening in NYC. Michigan is on a terrific run, has done really well to be in a place where very few people expected them to be; but if the Wolverines have a loss in them, the Big Red will probably find it. I'd put my money on the home team in this one.

Massey:

CU77 wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:00 pm Massey:

cu_v_um.jpg

Does this consider timing of their season results? I mean Michigan has looked tremendous the past 10 days and Cornell looks like a bunch of beer league 30 year olds playing defense.

keno in reno wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:16 pm

CU77 wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:00 pm Massey:

cu_v_um.jpg

Does this consider timing of their season results? I mean Michigan has looked tremendous the past 10 days and Cornell looks like a bunch of beer league 30 year olds playing defense.

Hard to operate on defense when you get 3 early face off violations (the ref was a joke). After that, you can't really risk anticipating the whistle, and Yale wins all the face offs, and the defense can't get a minute to rest. You'd be a fool to judge Cornells defense from that ILT game.

I'll take the Beer League guys all day, as those beer league guys have lit it up after every Cornell loss this past year.
Gobigred
Joewillie78

Lager wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:26 pm

keno in reno wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:16 pm

CU77 wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:00 pm Massey:

cu_v_um.jpg

Does this consider timing of their season results? I mean Michigan has looked tremendous the past 10 days and Cornell looks like a bunch of beer league 30 year olds playing defense.

Hard to operate on defense when you get 3 early face off violations (the ref was a joke). After that, you can't really risk anticipating the whistle, and Yale wins all the face offs, and the defense can't get a minute to rest. You'd be a fool to judge Cornells defense from that ILT game.

Why?

Michigan has a 0.610 FO%.

Cornell has a 0.498 FO%.

Michigan could dominate FOs against Cornell.

DocBarrister

molo wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 7:19 pm Michigan wins the Big 10 and gets a road game. Cornell looks good for much of the season but can’t get to the IL championship. Michigan has two FOGOs who are better than Cornell’s. Adler is an elite dman capable of nullifying an opponent’s best attackman. Who would that be on Michigan? All three can feed and score. Will Cornell try a zone? Michigan has used a grad student and a freshmauin the goal. The freshman finished the Penn State game and played the entire Maryland game. Cornell’s goalie has to be better than he looked in the ILT.
Cornell has a legitimate T candidate at attack. Is the offensive supporting cast strong enough to put up double figures against the Wolverines?
Cornell has the edge in star power, but once you get past those two, Michigan is more balanced and deeper. Are the Wolverines content just to have won the Big 10 and to have made their first NCAAT, or are they ready to advance?
In a first round upset, I lean towards the visitors by about three.

Although Cornell had a rough night against Yale, they're more than just CJ Kirst and Gavin Adler. Goalie Chayse Ierlan had a great year as the first-team all-Ivy goalie (beating out a late charge from Princeton's superb Michael Gianforcaro), and has a history of coming back strong from a "down" outing. Cornell has other guys who can fill up the net -- attackman Billy Coyle averaged about 4 points per game and the offense looked smoothest when Coyle and Michael Long (3.5 points per game) worked with Kirst -- and Cornell has several dangerous offensive threats (Kelleher and Blake) coming out of the midfield. Nobody comes close to Adler on the defensive side but Jack Follows and first-year Matt Dooley (who looked good against a red hot Chris Lyons in the ILT) are strong cohorts on close defense. First-year Brendan Staub is a really good young LSM who came up limping against Yale -- hopefully he will be okay. And this team really responds to their young coaches, particularly, as FannOLax noted, after a loss.

Michigan looked so good in the Big10 tournament that a road win for them wouldn't be a surprise. But I expect Cornell to play well and their 2022 tournament experience could come in handy.

Looking forward to this game, perhaps more than Terps/Army. Michigan is a hard team to root against, great story and great character. I always enjoy watching senior-laden teams finally blossom and start winning.

But with that being said... LGR!

Lager wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:26 pm

keno in reno wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:16 pm

CU77 wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:00 pm Massey:

cu_v_um.jpg

Does this consider timing of their season results? I mean Michigan has looked tremendous the past 10 days and Cornell looks like a bunch of beer league 30 year olds playing defense.

Hard to operate on defense when you get 3 early face off violations (the ref was a joke). After that, you can't really risk anticipating the whistle, and Yale wins all the face offs, and the defense can't get a minute to rest. You'd be a fool to judge Cornells defense from that ILT game.

Not here to bust on Cornell or its faithful fans; really it's a serious question relating to RPI and the computer models used by the cognescenti here. If the computer model cannot consider recent trends and natural improvements of teams since February, it's value is significantly diminished in predicting an outcome.

RPI is fine in such a short 12 to 16 game season, but almost every team is different than they were in February and early March. Michigan and Cornell, at least the last 10 days, appear to be headed in different directions.

keno in reno wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:16 pm

CU77 wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:00 pm Massey:

cu_v_um.jpg

Does this consider timing of their season results? I mean Michigan has looked tremendous the past 10 days and Cornell looks like a bunch of beer league 30 year olds playing defense.

As I understand Massey's model, more recent results count more, but it's a not a strong effect.

No doubt the Big Red had a very bad day last Friday, and they will need to have a good day to win, assuming Michigan does not have a bad day. Will Michigan's fresman relief goalie with limited experience again get the start over the junior who started all last year?

keno in reno wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:51 pm

Lager wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:26 pm

keno in reno wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:16 pm

CU77 wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:00 pm Massey:

cu_v_um.jpg

Does this consider timing of their season results? I mean Michigan has looked tremendous the past 10 days and Cornell looks like a bunch of beer league 30 year olds playing defense.

Hard to operate on defense when you get 3 early face off violations (the ref was a joke). After that, you can't really risk anticipating the whistle, and Yale wins all the face offs, and the defense can't get a minute to rest. You'd be a fool to judge Cornells defense from that ILT game.

Not here to bust on Cornell or its faithful fans; really it's a serious question relating to RPI and the computer models used by the cognescenti here. If the computer model cannot consider recent trends and natural improvements of teams since February, it's value is significantly diminished in predicting an outcome.

RPI is fine in such a short 12 to 16 game season, but almost every team is different than they were in February and early March. Michigan and Cornell, at least the last 10 days, appear to be headed in different directions.

So much of lacrosse is about matchups, as well. Why is UVA invincible against everyone but Duke? Why is Notre Dame untouchable against every team but UVA? On paper UMich should dominate at the X but sometimes the matchup goes another direction. And does UMichigan have anybody who can shut down Kirst? If he goes on an early tear and Michigan gets behind, it could change the complexion of the game. Cornell had a very rough day against Yale (and the faceoff violation thing was a real factor) but they beat a good Princeton team the week before and a good Army team in mid-April.

keno in reno wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:51 pm

Lager wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:26 pm

keno in reno wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:16 pm

CU77 wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:00 pm Massey:

cu_v_um.jpg

Does this consider timing of their season results? I mean Michigan has looked tremendous the past 10 days and Cornell looks like a bunch of beer league 30 year olds playing defense.

Hard to operate on defense when you get 3 early face off violations (the ref was a joke). After that, you can't really risk anticipating the whistle, and Yale wins all the face offs, and the defense can't get a minute to rest. You'd be a fool to judge Cornells defense from that ILT game.

Not here to bust on Cornell or its faithful fans; really it's a serious question relating to RPI and the computer models used by the cognescenti here. If the computer model cannot consider recent trends and natural improvements of teams since February, it's value is significantly diminished in predicting an outcome.

RPI is fine in such a short 12 to 16 game season, but almost every team is different than they were in February and early March. Michigan and Cornell, at least the last 10 days, appear to be headed in different directions.

It was mostly a one-game trend. Despite a poor run of play in the middle of the regular season finale against Princeton, they still ended up beating one of the hottest teams in the nation, to complete a run of seven wins in eight games. I agree with those that say this is looking a lot like last year... their ILT game last year against Yale was not a great performance either, on the heals of a close win over Princeton.

Buczek is a great coach. He'll get things sorted for Sunday after the bump against Yale.

The Orfling wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:59 pm

keno in reno wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:51 pm

Lager wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:26 pm

keno in reno wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:16 pm

CU77 wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:00 pm Massey:

cu_v_um.jpg

Does this consider timing of their season results? I mean Michigan has looked tremendous the past 10 days and Cornell looks like a bunch of beer league 30 year olds playing defense.

Hard to operate on defense when you get 3 early face off violations (the ref was a joke). After that, you can't really risk anticipating the whistle, and Yale wins all the face offs, and the defense can't get a minute to rest. You'd be a fool to judge Cornells defense from that ILT game.

Not here to bust on Cornell or its faithful fans; really it's a serious question relating to RPI and the computer models used by the cognescenti here. If the computer model cannot consider recent trends and natural improvements of teams since February, it's value is significantly diminished in predicting an outcome.

RPI is fine in such a short 12 to 16 game season, but almost every team is different than they were in February and early March. Michigan and Cornell, at least the last 10 days, appear to be headed in different directions.

So much of lacrosse is about matchups, as well. Why is UVA invincible against everyone but Duke? Why is Notre Dame untouchable against every team but UVA? On paper UMich should dominate at the X but sometimes the matchup goes another direction. And does UMichigan have anybody who can shut down Kirst? If he goes on an early tear and Michigan gets behind, it could change the complexion of the game. Cornell had a very rough day against Yale (and the faceoff violation thing was a real factor) but they beat a good Princeton team the week before and a good Army team in mid-April.

I agree with everything except the Notre Dame untouchable thing. They'll be touched. Now the Jeezus Bros will respond with hacks, nutpunches, loogies and taunts, but they are much more beatable than Duke or UVA.

Personally, I think that it's difficult to predict face-off performance. Cornell has three excellent face-off personnel (assuming that Petrakis is not injured). Cascadden is an excellent athlete, and I'd be hard pressed to believe that the Yale game was a defining moment for his overall skill set.

Also, I'd bet that Cornell beats its average in Caused Turnovers against UMich, relying on the idea that the Red will be playing with a big chip on their shoulder following the Yale game. This Big Red Team has been to the Final Four, and that experience is extremely important versus the Wolverines who are new to the NCAA Tournament.

Still, all of that said, the 2008 Ohio State game at Schoellkopf is likely in the collective memory of many Cornell Lacrosse fans, when an athletic OSU team took Cornell by surprise. I assume that this will be a challenging game for Cornell.

Best of luck to the Maize and Blue, and Go Big Red!

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 7:49 pm Most likely “upset,” I think.

Michigan 15, Cornell 13.

DocBarrister

I'll be rooting for Bryant and any other team JHU plays.

What if I told you that the Doc is an Ivy-Leaguer, not your typical lunch-pail Blue Jay?

CU77 wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:52 pm

keno in reno wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:16 pm

CU77 wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 8:00 pm Massey:

cu_v_um.jpg

Does this consider timing of their season results? I mean Michigan has looked tremendous the past 10 days and Cornell looks like a bunch of beer league 30 year olds playing defense.

As I understand Massey's model, more recent results count more, but it's a not a strong effect.

No doubt the Big Red had a very bad day last Friday, and they will need to have a good day to win, assuming Michigan does not have a bad day. Will Michigan's fresman relief goalie with limited experience again get the start over the junior who started all last year?

I'd be curious what it says about another Maryland/Michigan matchup