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I was tempted to drive to Durham to see Cuse try to beat Duke on Saturday; the forecast is overcast and 70’s. But I think I’m going to choose to go back to Charlottesville (again) to see Notre Dame take on UVA Sunday; the forecast looks like a little rain.

Anyone think ND takes the rematch? I’m not sold either team is playing for anything but pride, right?

I’m going with UVA by one. Only two options in the poll since the spread has got to be a pick’em scenario.

(Also I think Duke wins versus Cuse)

UVA by 4, something like 16-12, not too much different from first meeting.

a healthy(er) Shellenberger would help UVA hit molo's prediction....

molo wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 4:48 pm UVA by 4, something like 16-12, not too much different from first meeting.

Agreed. But these end-of-season games which don’t impact if the teams get into the tournament (both obviously are) are harder to predict with confidence. Less physicality, trying to stay healthy, coaches not yelling as hard. One team might choose to go 100%, the other 95%. Will both squads want it the full 60 minutes?

Conceptually I’m with you. But.

It’s something nagging me. Todays college players confuse me sometimes with their energy level. I used to be able to predict this better.

(should I instead go to Cuse at Duke because it’s guaranteed Cuse is gonna be at 100% speed?)

Shellenberger looked ok tonight against the Leopards.

molo wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 9:42 pm Shellenberger looked ok tonight against the Leopards.

Has any D1 player ever had as high a goals-to-shots percentage than Xander Dickson? Every time I see a stat sheet, like last nights 4-for-5, the kid is basically gold on the majority of his shots. Meaning, he never hurts his team with reckless shooting. It’s really something.

Couple that with 4 assists for an 8 point night, how is this kid not First Tesm AA?!??

It would be criminal if he's not a 1st team AA. He should be in top 5 for the tewaarton award too. The kid has been dominate and one of the best players in the country this yr.

DoubleD wrote: ↑Wed Apr 26, 2023 8:54 am It would be criminal if he's not a 1st team AA. He should be in top 5 for the tewaarton award too. The kid has been dominate and one of the best players in the country this yr.

He's been the best player for Virginia this year. especially since Shelly's injury.

Virginia is hard to figure because they have the highest ceiling but a lower floor than the other top teams due to carelessness and disorganization on defense. Without history, I'd predict ND would disrupt Virginia enough to win by 2. However, that history is hard to ignore. Some teams match up better due to styles and systems.

Hoxwurth wrote: ↑Wed Apr 26, 2023 9:18 am

DoubleD wrote: ↑Wed Apr 26, 2023 8:54 am It would be criminal if he's not a 1st team AA. He should be in top 5 for the tewaarton award too. The kid has been dominate and one of the best players in the country this yr.

He's been the best player for Virginia this year. especially since Shelly's injury.

Virginia is hard to figure because they have the highest ceiling but a lower floor than the other top teams due to carelessness and disorganization on defense. Without history, I'd predict ND would disrupt Virginia enough to win by 2. However, that history is hard to ignore. Some teams match up better due to styles and systems.

There is an arguement that over the course of the entire season Cormier should be in the mix for UVA POY.

The fact that UVA has both (along with Shellenberger) is an embarrassment of riches....

UVA by 1.

Hoxwurth wrote: ↑Wed Apr 26, 2023 9:18 am

DoubleD wrote: ↑Wed Apr 26, 2023 8:54 am It would be criminal if he's not a 1st team AA. He should be in top 5 for the tewaarton award too. The kid has been dominate and one of the best players in the country this yr.

He's been the best player for Virginia this year. especially since Shelly's injury.

Virginia is hard to figure because they have the highest ceiling but a lower floor than the other top teams due to carelessness and disorganization on defense. Without history, I'd predict ND would disrupt Virginia enough to win by 2. However, that history is hard to ignore. Some teams match up better due to styles and systems.

Respectfully…do they really have a lower floor than the other top contenders? The goals against average isn’t great…but their three losses this year were to #2 Duke by 2 and by 1 and #7 Maryland in overtime.

ND only has one loss, but it was to this Virginia team and it wasn’t particularly close. Honestly I think there’s a case that they have a higher ceiling moreso than higher floor considering literally no one has played them close aside from the decisive loss to UVA, and their schedule has been very good.

Duke’s got two losses: one to ND, also not particularly close, and once to a good-not-great Jacksonville team. They’ve also played 4 other games decided by three or fewer without even counting the UVA wins.

Hopkins has lost 3 times by 4 or more, two of them to teams that aren’t particularly likely to make the tournament. They unquestionably have a lower floor than UVA, they’ve proven that.

Penn State: lost to solid but unspectacular Nova and Marquette teams. UVA has whooped everyone in the range of those two.

Cornell: got pushed by a bad Albany team and lost to a mediocre Harvard team

Maryland: beat UVA head to head, but lost to three teams UVA beat by 4+ plus a 5-goal loss to Loyola

GTown: none of their losses were bad and all were early, but again, two against teams UVA handily beat plus close wins over Richmond/Lehigh/Providence/Marquette

I’d argue the only team in the country that has even *possibly* shown a higher floor is Notre Dame. UVA has whooped everyone except the very tippy top teams…and even a handful of them.

Finster wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 2:10 pm I was tempted to drive to Durham to see Cuse try to beat Duke on Saturday; the forecast is overcast and 70’s. But I think I’m going to choose to go back to Charlottesville (again) to see Notre Dame take on UVA Sunday; the forecast looks like a little rain.

Anyone think ND takes the rematch? I’m not sold either team is playing for anything but pride, right?

I’m going with UVA by one. Only two options in the poll since the spread has got to be a pick’em scenario.

(Also I think Duke wins versus Cuse)

Agree with your premise "I'm not sold that either team is playing for anything but pride" One would think that ND would be the more motivated team of the 2 having lost earlier in the season but who knows. I just hope Virginia plays a solid game and has no injuries. The real games start after this one for both teams. Hopefully, the Refs will be watching the Kavanaughs closely for their routine dirty plays and cheap shots.

blue angels wrote: ↑Fri Apr 28, 2023 8:51 am

Finster wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 2:10 pm I was tempted to drive to Durham to see Cuse try to beat Duke on Saturday; the forecast is overcast and 70’s. But I think I’m going to choose to go back to Charlottesville (again) to see Notre Dame take on UVA Sunday; the forecast looks like a little rain.

Anyone think ND takes the rematch? I’m not sold either team is playing for anything but pride, right?

I’m going with UVA by one. Only two options in the poll since the spread has got to be a pick’em scenario.

(Also I think Duke wins versus Cuse)

Agree with your premise "I'm not sold that either team is playing for anything but pride" One would think that ND would be the more motivated team of the 2 having lost earlier in the season but who knows. I just hope Virginia plays a solid game and has no injuries. The real games start after this one for both teams. Hopefully, the Refs will be watching the Kavanaughs closely for their routine dirty plays and cheap shots.

I mean that’s the thing, which you said: no one wants an injury from this game, so I’d think folks will hold off even a little.

I’ll be there I think.

First, ND, Duke, UVA will not rest players. They are all building to win a championship. Second, if UVA wins, they have a shot at #1 seed as Syracuse is going to beat or really test Duke this weekend.

UVA would have an argument for the #1 seed either way. There’s a ring of death with these teams if UVA wins. UVA beat ND twice who beat Duke beat UVA twice. They’re all gonna be 1-2-3 in RPI. All will have multiple Top 5 RPI wins. Perhaps the differentiator could be that Duke is the only one that has a bad loss (to Jacksonville.)

jrn19 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 28, 2023 11:20 pm UVA would have an argument for the #1 seed either way. There’s a ring of death with these teams if UVA wins. UVA beat ND twice who beat Duke beat UVA twice. They’re all gonna be 1-2-3 in RPI. All will have multiple Top 5 RPI wins. Perhaps the differentiator could be that Duke is the only one that has a bad loss (to Jacksonville.)

Have to wonder... how "bad" a loss is Jaxville? At this point, time will tell.

nm... Just noticed the Air Force loss

tech37 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 29, 2023 7:09 am

jrn19 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 28, 2023 11:20 pm UVA would have an argument for the #1 seed either way. There’s a ring of death with these teams if UVA wins. UVA beat ND twice who beat Duke beat UVA twice. They’re all gonna be 1-2-3 in RPI. All will have multiple Top 5 RPI wins. Perhaps the differentiator could be that Duke is the only one that has a bad loss (to Jacksonville.)

Have to wonder... how "bad" a loss is Jaxville? At this point, time will tell.

nm... Just noticed the Air Force loss

They are 29th in RPI and there's really no way they're going to get back into the Top 20. So it is a bad loss by the selection criteria for the tournament.

Raining in Charlottesville now but should be okay by 2 pm.

This time yesterday was sunny and warm.

Only game of the day and it’s a huge one. I don’t know who to cheer for.

Let’s go!!

Man it’s crowded here.

ESPN saying the event hasn't started yet?