LaxPower Back-Up Stick

AQ’s – 28 Spots
Cabrini (Atlantic East) – 1 bid
Endicott (CCC) – 1 bid
Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW) – 1bid
*Gettysburg (Centennial) – multi-bid
New England College (CSAC) – 1 bid
Saint John Fisher (Empire 8) – 1 bid
Emmanuel (Great Northeast) – 1 bid
Colorado College (HCMLC) – 1 bid
Elizabethtown (Landmark) – 1 bid
*RIT (Liberty League) – multi-bid
Western Connecticut (Little East) – 1 bid
*York (MAC-Commonwealth) – 1 bid
Stevens Tech (MAC-Freedom) – 1 bid
Albion (MIAA) – 1 bid
Lake Forest (MLC) – 1 bid
Denison (NCAC) – 1 bid
*Tufts (NESCAC) – multi-bid
Babson (NEWMAC) – 1 bid
Maine-Maritime (North Atlantic) – 1 bid
Aurora (NACC) – 1 bid
Baldwin-Wallace (OAC) – 1 bid
*Washington and Lee (ODAC) – multi-bid
Grove City (PAC) – 1 bid
Centre (SAA) – 1 bid
Farmingdale St. (Skyline) – 1 bid
SUNY-Geneseo (SUNYAC) – 1 bid
St. Mary’s-MD (United East) – 1 bid
Pfieffer (USA South) – 1 bid

*Would receive Pool C if they lost their league. York and W&L are trending up in regard to Pool C resume, with Lynchburg and Union’s upsets.

Projected Regional Rankings
Region 1 – 12 teams
1. Tufts (18-0)
2. Middlebury (15-2)
3. Amherst (13-4)
4. Bowdoin (12-5)
5. Wesleyan (10-6)
6. Babson (12-4)
7. MIT (13-5)
8. Endicott (14-4)
9. Western Connecticut (15-3)
10. Williams (8-8)
11. Hamilton (8-7)
12. Emmanuel (16-3)

Region 2 – 8 Teams
1. RIT (17-1)
2. St. Lawrence (14-4)
3. Union (11-6)
4. Clarkson (12-5)
5. Geneseo (14-4)
6. Ithaca (9-6)
7. Cortland (12-6)
8. RPI (8-7)

Region 3 – 10 Teams
1. Salisbury (18-1)
2. Christopher Newport (17-2)
3. Gettysburg (15-2)
4. Dickinson (14-4)
5. York (14-5)
6. Stevens Tech (17-2)
7. Swarthmore (12-4)
8. Cabrini (14-4)
9. Muhlenberg (12-5)
10. Stevenson (11-8)

Region 4 – 12 Teams
1. Washington and Lee (15-4)
2. Denison (16-3)
3. Lynchburg (12-6)
4. Kenyon (15-2)
5. Hampden-Sydney (13-6)
6. Baldwin-Wallace (17-2)
7. Roanoke (12-7)
8. Randolph-Macon (12-6)
9. Pfieffer (17-1)
10. Ohio Wesleyan (12-5)
11. John Carroll (13-3)
12. Wooster (14-4)

Region 5 – 8 Teams
1. Illinois Wesleyan (14-3)
2. Centre (12-3)
3. Albion (13-6)
4. Aurora (15-4)
5. Sewanee (12-4)
6. Hope (10-7)
7. Lake Forest (14-4)
8. Adrian (11-7)

At-Large/ Pool C - 10 Spots

Current Resume TODAY (A lot will change)

1. Middlebury (12-1)
SOS: 3
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 7-1
Record vs USILA Top 20: 4-1
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins: Bowdoin, St. Lawrence
Top 20 Wins: Wesleyan, Union

2. Salisbury (12-1)
SOS: 16
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 7-1
Record vs USILA Top 20: 3-1
Top 5 Wins: Christopher Newport
Top 10 Wins:
Top 20 Wins: York, Lynchburg

3. Christopher Newport (13-1)
SOS: 7
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 8-1
Record vs USILA Top 20: 4-1
Top 5 Wins: RIT
Top 10 Wins: W&L, Dickinson
Top 20 Wins: Lynchburg

4. St. Lawrence (11-2)
SOS: 26
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 3-2
Record vs USILA Top 20: 1-2
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins:
Top 20 Wins: Lynchburg

5. Amherst (9-3)
SOS: 4
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 3-3
Record vs USILA Top 20: 2-2
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins: Bowdoin
Top 20 Wins: York

6. Bowdoin (9-3)
SOS: 8
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 4-3
Record vs USILA Top 20: 1-2
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins:
Top 20 Wins: Wesleyan

7. Dickinson (10-3)
SOS: 27
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 5-3
Record vs USILA Top 20: 3-2
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins:
Top 20 Wins: Stevens Tech, Cabrini, Swarthmore

8. Swarthmore (10-2)
SOS: 31
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 4-1
Record vs USILA Top 20: 2-1
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins: Gettysburg
Top 20 Wins: Muhlenberg

LAST TWO IN

9. Union (7-5)
SOS: 4
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 4-5
Record vs USILA Top 20: 1-3
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins: St. Lawrence
Top 20 Wins:

10. Lynchburg (9-5)
SOS: 18
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 4-5
Record vs USILA Top 20: 2-3
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins: W&L
Top 20 Wins: Cabrini

JUST MISSED

11. Williams (7-5)
SOS: 2
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 4-4
Record vs USILA Top 20: 1-3
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins: Bowdoin
Top 20 Wins: Amherst

12. Wesleyan (7-5)
SOS: 10
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 2-4
Record vs USILA Top 20: 1-4
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins:
Top 20 Wins: Amherst

13. Muhlenberg (9-4)
SOS: 30
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 1-3
Record vs USILA Top 20: 1-2
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins: Dickinson
Top 20 Wins:

14. Clarkson (9-3)
SOS: 35
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 2-3
Record vs USILA Top 20: 1-1
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins:
Top 20 Wins: Union

15. Ithaca (7-4)
SOS: 28
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 2-3
Record vs USILA Top 20: 0-3
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins:
Top 20 Wins:

16. MIT (10-3)
SOS: 37
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 1-1
Record vs USILA Top 20: 0-0
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins:
Top 20 Wins:

17. Hampden-Sydney (11-3)
SOS: 54
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 2-3
Record vs USILA Top 20: 1-3
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins: Washington and Lee
Top 20 Wins:

18. Kenyon (11-1)
SOS: 70
Record vs Regional Ranked Opponents: 3-1
Record vs USILA Top 20: 1-0
Top 5 Wins:
Top 10 Wins:
Top 20 Wins: Denison

I'm having a little trouble getting the Pool C resumes to square with the Regional Rankings for this update. I think you might still be counting Stockton as a RRO? It seems like Salisbury, CNU, and Swat all have one more RR win than I would expect, and that's the only common opponent.

I'm curious as to why Union would be in over Williams as it currently stands. Williams is 4-4 vs regionally ranked opponents and Union is 4-5. Williams SOS is 2 and Union is 4. Williams has two wins vs ranked teams and Union just one.

JustOneTime wrote: ↑Tue Apr 18, 2023 12:54 pm I'm curious as to why Union would be in over Williams as it currently stands. Williams is 4-4 vs regionally ranked opponents and Union is 4-5. Williams SOS is 2 and Union is 4. Williams has two wins vs ranked teams and Union just one.

I believe it is extremely unlikely that the selection committee would extend 4 pool c bids to any one league. It would be very unprecedented. But yes their resume is better. The NESCAC is a 4 bid lock, but they are likely competing with themselves

I do see that Union beat Williams so the head to head has to be the ultimate tie breaker.

This could be way off. But I took the info from this thread. Then used the massey rating to rank 1-38. Assuming 27-38!would be the play in games. This is what I got for first round games

1 tufts vs play in
2 RIT vs play in
3 CNU vs play in
4 Salisbury vs play in
5 middlebury vs play in
6 Bowdin vs play in
7 Amhearst vs 26 Colorado college
8 gettysburgh vs 25 Baldwin Wallace
9 St Lawrence vs 24 St Mary (MD)
10 union vs 23 Elizabethtown
11 York vs 22 Endicott
12 Dickinson vs 21 SJF
13 W&L vs 20 Geneseo
14 Lynchburg vs 19 Cabrini
15 swarthmore vs 18 Denison
16 Babson vs 17 Stevens

How it breaks down after that is beyond me. But a lot of tough 2nd round games. Maybe getting a SU vs Lynchburg. Or W&L vs CNU in the second round.

As always, thanks for the hard work and insight. Your day job must suffer from all the time this analysis takes

Still lots more games to be played.

SixBySix wrote: ↑Tue Apr 18, 2023 11:59 am I'm having a little trouble getting the Pool C resumes to square with the Regional Rankings for this update. I think you might still be counting Stockton as a RRO? It seems like Salisbury, CNU, and Swat all have one more RR win than I would expect, and that's the only common opponent.

I may need to double back on some of this, it’s a little hard working off the previous weeks to catch all that rather than start from scratch. But it saves quite a bit of time.

After publishing i also noticed that Trinity likely has a better resume than Hamilton for regional ranking purposes.

Anyone know when the first regional rankings list comes out?

D3LaxFan2 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 18, 2023 6:22 pm Anyone know when the first regional rankings list comes out?

April 19

See section 1.4
https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/champi ... manual.pdf

Region 3 is a bear of a region. Wowzeee

fitzlax wrote: ↑Tue Apr 18, 2023 9:38 pm

D3LaxFan2 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 18, 2023 6:22 pm Anyone know when the first regional rankings list comes out?

April 19

See section 1.4
https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/champi ... manual.pdf

Thank you

Here are the regionally ranked teams on NCAA.com. Appears they accidentally formatted this in alphabetical order, not in order of rank.

Region I In-Division Record Overall Record
Amherst 9-3 9-3
Babson 8-4 8-4
Bowdoin 9-3 9-3
Middlebury 12-1 12-1
Tufts 13-0 13-0
Wesleyan (CT) 7-5 7-5
Williams 7-5 7-5

Region II In-Division Record Overall Record
Clarkson 9-3 9-3
Ithaca 7-4 7-4
Rensselaer 7-6 7-6
RIT 13-1 13-1
St. Lawrence 11-2 11-2
SUNY Geneseo 10-3 10-3
Union (NY) 7-5 7-5

Region III In-Division Record Overall Record
Chris. Newport 13-1 13-1
Dickinson 10-3 10-3
Gettysburg 11-2 11-2
Muhlenberg 9-4 9-4
Salisbury 12-1 12-1
Swarthmore 10-2 10-2
York (PA) 8-5 8-5

Region IV In-Division Record Overall Record
Denison 9-3 9-3
Hampden-Sydney 11-3 11-3
Kenyon 11-1 11-1
Lynchburg 9-5 9-5
Ohio Wesleyan 8-4 8-4
Roanoke 10-5 10-5
Wash. & Lee 9-4 9-4

Region V In-Division Record Overall Record
Albion 9-3 9-3
Centre 10-3 10-3
Elmhurst 9-4 9-4
Ill. Wesleyan 9-3 9-3
North Central (IL) 7-4 7-4
Rhodes 11-5 11-5
Sewanee 10-4 10-4

D3LaxFan2 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2023 12:49 pm Here are the regionally ranked teams on NCAA.com. Appears they accidentally formatted this in alphabetical order, not in order of rank.

In all the first round of regional rankings, they list them alphabetically.

Interesting--I thought the "only 7 RR teams per region" change was postponed/abandoned? Could have a big impact on the projections if so.

The dropoff to Region V is basically a cliff.

CNU and the ODAC teams being in a different region despite being in the same state is certainly a choice.

thescottharris wrote: ↑Sat Apr 22, 2023 8:56 am CNU and the ODAC teams being in a different region despite being in the same state is certainly a choice.

It’s by conference. It’s the region associated with the conference. Should Hamilton be in a different region than everyone else in their league?