The Nation's Financial Condition

[Typical Lax Dad]

The Economist:

Everywhere you look, stockmarkets are breaking records. American equities, as measured by the s&p 500 index, hit their first all-time high in more than two years in January, surged above 5,000 points in February and roared well above that level on February 22nd when Nvidia, a maker of hardware essential for artificial intelligence (ai), released spectacular results. The same day, Europe’s stoxx 600 set its own record. Even before Nvidia’s results had been announced, Japan’s Nikkei 225 had surpassed its previous best, set in 1989. Little surprise, then, that a widely watched global stockmarket index recently hit an all-time high, too (see chart 1).

This is quite a turnaround. Stocks slumped in 2022, when faced with fast-rising interest rates, and wobbled last March, during a banking panic. Now, though, both episodes look like brief interruptions in equities’ long march higher. Despite middling economic growth and the covid-19 pandemic, stockmarkets have offered annual returns, after inflation, of more than 8% a year since 2010, including dividends (cash payments to shareholders, funded by company profits) and capital gains (when the price of a share increases). These returns have been better than those produced by bonds and housing. Indeed, they have been better than those produced by just about any other asset class.

If the boom has a home, it is America. A hundred dollars invested in the s&p 500 on January 1st 2010 is now worth $600 (or $430 at 2010’s prices). However you measure them, American returns have outclassed those elsewhere. Almost 60% of Americans now report owning stocks, the most since reliable data began to be collected in the late 1980s. Many of them, as well as many professional investors, have a question. Is the stockmarket surge sustainable or the prelude to a correction?

For as long as stockmarkets have existed there have been those predicting an imminent crash. But today, in addition to the usual doomsaying, a chorus of academics and market researchers argues that it will be tough for American firms to deliver what is required over the long-term to reproduce the extraordinary stockmarket returns seen in recent years. Michael Smolyansky of the Federal Reserve has written about the “end of an era”, and warned of “significantly lower profit growth and stock returns in the future”. Goldman Sachs, a bank, has suggested that the “tailwinds of the last 30 years are unlikely to provide much boost in the coming years”. Jordan Brooks of aqr Capital Management, a quantitative hedge fund, has concluded that “a repeat of the past decade’s equity market performance would require a heroic set of assumptions.”

That is, in part, because valuations are already at eye-popping levels. The most closely followed measure of them was devised by Robert Shiller of Yale University. It compares prices with inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous decade—a long enough period to smooth out the economic cycle. The resulting cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, or cape, has never been higher than 44.2, a record reached in 1999, during the dotcom bubble. The previous peak was in 1929, when the cape hit 31.5. It now stands at 34.3 (see chart 2).

Rarely have corporate profits been valued so highly. And the outlook for the profits themselves is also challenging. To understand why, consider the fundamental sources of their recent growth. We have employed Mr Smolyansky’s methodology to examine national-accounts data for American corporations. Between 1962 and 1989 net profits increased in real terms by 2% a year. After that, profits accelerated. Between 1989 and 2019 they increased by more than 4% a year. We find similar trends across the oecd, a club of mostly rich countries. As a share of gdp, corporate profits were steady from the 1970s to the 1990s, then doubled (see chart 3).

Yet much of this strong performance is, in a sense, a mirage. Politicians have reduced the tax burden facing corporations: from 1989 to 2019 the effective corporation-tax rate on American firms dropped by three-fifths. Since companies were giving less money to the state, corporate profits rose, leaving them with more money to pass on to shareholders. Meanwhile, over the same period borrowing became cheaper. From 1989 to 2019 the average interest rate facing American corporations fell by two-thirds.

Mirroring Mr Smolyansky, we find that in America the difference in profit growth during the 1962-1989 period and the 1989-2019 period is “entirely due to the decline in interest and corporate-tax rates”. Extending this analysis to the rich world as a whole, we find similar trends. The surge in net profits is really an artefact of lower taxes and interest bills. Measures of underlying profits have grown less impressively.

Now companies face a serious problem. The decades-long slide in interest rates has reversed. Risk-free interest rates across the rich world are about twice as high as they were in 2019. There is no guarantee that they will fall back to these lows—let alone decline fairly steadily, as they tended to in the decades before the pandemic.

As for taxes, the political winds have changed. True, Donald Trump may see fit to cut America’s corporation-tax rate if he wins in November. But our analysis of 142 countries finds that in 2022 and 2023 the median statutory corporate-tax rate rose for the first time in decades. For instance, in 2023 Britain increased its main rate of corporation tax from 19% to 25%. Governments have also established a global minimum effective corporate tax rate of 15% on large multinational enterprises. Once it has bedded in, such companies will probably pay between 6.5% and 8.1% more tax, leaving a smaller pool of net profits.

What needs to happen, then, for American stocks to keep offering exceptional returns? One possibility is that investors pay for even more stretched valuations. In a world in which interest and tax bills remain constant for the next decade while real earnings grow at 6% a year—an optimistic scenario—America’s cape would need to rise to 51 to reproduce the overall returns seen from 2013 to 2023. That would be higher than it has ever gone before.

Now make things grimmer and assume that valuations revert towards their means. The cape drifts towards 27, near the average since the end of the dotcom bubble. Assume, too, that interest and tax bills rise. Rather than clocking in at 25% of earnings, they drift up to 35%, or around the level in the first half of the 2010s. In this more realistic world, to generate even half the returns equity investors enjoyed since 2010, real earnings would have to grow at 9% per year. Only twice in the post-war period has America achieved this sort of growth, according to Mr Brooks, and in both cases the economy was rebounding from busts—once from the dotcom bubble and once from the global financial crisis of 2007-09.

Many investors hope that ai will ride to the rescue. Surveys of chief executives suggest great enthusiasm for tools that rely on the technology. Some companies are already adopting them, and claim that they are producing transformative productivity gains. If deployed more widely, the tools may allow companies to cut costs and produce more value, juicing economic growth and corporate profits.

Needless to say, this is a heavy burden for a technology that is still nascent. Moreover, technological developments are far from the only trend that will affect business in the coming years. Firms face an uncertain geopolitical climate, with global trade flat or declining depending on the measure. In America both parties are sceptical of big business. The battle against inflation is also not yet won: interest rates may not fall as far or as fast as investors expect. In recent decades you would have been foolish to bet against stockmarkets, and timing a downturn is almost impossible. But the corporate world is about to face an almighty test.

[cradleandshoot]

I was just being indoctrinated by The NBC Morning News. They just had an interesting report on something I had never heard of until 15 minutes ago. Wendys is sending up a trial balloon for a concept called surge pricing. So the meal that would have cost 10 dollars yesterday might cost you 15 dollars today. Anybody out there more familiar with this concept than I am?

Happy hour use to mean that bottle of suds would save you a buck or 2. Dynamic pricing now means that bottle of suds purchased in prime time might cost you a couple of dollars more at 6pm than it would at 3pm.

[PizzaSnake]

Color me surprised…NOT.

“Some of the US’s most profitable corporations, including General Motors, Citigroup and Netflix, have slashed their tax bills in the years since the passage of the Trump tax cuts, with nearly a quarter paying rates in the single digits and 23 paying nothing, a report has found.

The 2017 law cut the top corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21%. But the new assessment of corporate tax avoidance, published on Thursday by the non-profit Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (Itep), found that during the first five years the law was in effect, many profitable public companies in the US paid a far lower rate in practice.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -companies

[jhu72]

So two New York "real estate investors" have their noses out of joint. They claim New York is a terrible place to invest in since Trump and his children were found guilty of being tax cheats, crooks. Why are these clowns nose's out of joint? The don't like tax cheats, crooks being prosecuted?? They claim this prosecution and conviction will chill others in dealing with New York real estate. Why, pretty weak sauce. No other conclusion you can come to than it will chill the operation of tax cheats and crooks in the business. O'Leary and Cardone are looking like they fit the description!

[jhu72]

Fox is having a harder time lying about the economy. Don't think it will keep them from trying. RepubliCON scum can't win if the economy keeps improving. Trump, the great American is on record as wishing for the stock market to fail. Kudlow looks like he swallows his face every time he has to admit that things are pretty good. Maria is such an obvious liar. A real Kool Aid drinker.

[PizzaSnake]

More good news on Boeing’s antique airframe.

“The FAA has received reports of “multiple unusual spoiler deployments, which resulted in an un-commanded roll to the right” during the cruise phase of flight.

The FAA investigation “identified the potential for a hardover of more than one flight spoiler on the same wing, which can exceed full lateral control capability leading to loss of control of the airplane.””

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisagarc ... ilers/amp/

[youthathletics]

Crazy times. Major CRE property sells for one third of its last sale price 2011 and $$/sq.ft has dropped by more than half:

https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Market Square broke a record for its price per square foot when the complex was last sold in 2011 for $613M, or about $905 per SF.

This week's deal pencils out to about $464 per SF.

At a time when DC is in the process of changing Penn AveL https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

[cradleandshoot]

Fox is having a harder time lying about the economy. Don't think it will keep them from trying. RepubliCON scum can't win if the economy keeps improving. Trump, the great American is on record as wishing for the stock market to fail. Kudlow looks like he swallows his face every time he has to admit that things are pretty good. Maria is such an obvious liar. A real Kool Aid drinker.

Anyone wanting to get good vibrations about our economy isn't shopping at Wegmans every week. You know that store where many of middle class Americans go to find out what groceries they can and can't afford this week. If your a carnivore you can save yourself the aggravation and bypass the meat department . It ain't much better if your a vegetabletarian. The price of fresh produce isn't any better. Those Ramen noodles are loaded with sodium but they are inexpensive.

[runrussellrun]

Fox is having a harder time lying about the economy. Don't think it will keep them from trying. RepubliCON scum can't win if the economy keeps improving. Trump, the great American is on record as wishing for the stock market to fail. Kudlow looks like he swallows his face every time he has to admit that things are pretty good. Maria is such an obvious liar. A real Kool Aid drinker.

Anyone wanting to get good vibrations about our economy isn't shopping at Wegmans every week. You know that store where many of middle class Americans go to find out what groceries they can and can't afford this week. If your a carnivore you can save yourself the aggravation and bypass the meat department . It ain't much better if your a vegetabletarian. The price of fresh produce isn't any better. Those Ramen noodles are loaded with sodium but they are inexpensive.

[a fan]

Crazy times. Major CRE property sells for one third of its last sale price 2011 and $$/sq.ft has dropped by more than half:

https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Market Square broke a record for its price per square foot when the complex was last sold in 2011 for $613M, or about $905 per SF.

This week's deal pencils out to about $464 per SF.

At a time when DC is in the process of changing Penn AveL https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Denver isn't waiting for the market to collapse....they're using Covid recovery funds to find office buildings that can be converted to residential. They've identified around 50.

It's another Fortune 500 and Foreign investor taxpayer bailout, of course, but we all got help this time (for once), so......

[youthathletics]

Crazy times. Major CRE property sells for one third of its last sale price 2011 and $$/sq.ft has dropped by more than half:

https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Market Square broke a record for its price per square foot when the complex was last sold in 2011 for $613M, or about $905 per SF.

This week's deal pencils out to about $464 per SF.

At a time when DC is in the process of changing Penn AveL https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Denver isn't waiting for the market to collapse....they're using Covid recovery funds to find office buildings that can be converted to residential. They've identified around 50.

It's another Fortune 500 and Foreign investor taxpayer bailout, of course, but we all got help this time (for once), so......

Certainly a risky approach, but trying anything is better than nothing. Covid really drove city living/loving families to the suburbs. Although we Americans tend to have shot memories... rather hard to decide to move in to a city from the suburbs when work from home is the new norm, and there really is not much incentive. Will be interesting to see where we are in 3-5 years.

[a fan]

Crazy times. Major CRE property sells for one third of its last sale price 2011 and $$/sq.ft has dropped by more than half:

https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Market Square broke a record for its price per square foot when the complex was last sold in 2011 for $613M, or about $905 per SF.

This week's deal pencils out to about $464 per SF.

At a time when DC is in the process of changing Penn AveL https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Denver isn't waiting for the market to collapse....they're using Covid recovery funds to find office buildings that can be converted to residential. They've identified around 50.

It's another Fortune 500 and Foreign investor taxpayer bailout, of course, but we all got help this time (for once), so......

Certainly a risky approach, but trying anything is better than nothing. Covid really drove city living/loving families to the suburbs. Although we Americans tend to have shot memories... rather hard to decide to move in to a city from the suburbs when work from home is the new norm, and there really is not much incentive. Will be interesting to see where we are in 3-5 years.

Except here in Denver, all the young GenZ kids with disposable income want to live in cities. And they're not having kids until their 30's.

There's a huge demand for housing in Denver now, and Tech keeps moving here....and with that come rich kids and DINK's.

I would agree this is better than doing nothing. Vacant buildings are bad for cities when the numbers get this high. We're at 30%+ vacancy last I checked.

[a fan]

Crazy times. Major CRE property sells for one third of its last sale price 2011 and $$/sq.ft has dropped by more than half:

https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Market Square broke a record for its price per square foot when the complex was last sold in 2011 for $613M, or about $905 per SF.

This week's deal pencils out to about $464 per SF.

At a time when DC is in the process of changing Penn AveL https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Denver isn't waiting for the market to collapse....they're using Covid recovery funds to find office buildings that can be converted to residential. They've identified around 50.

It's another Fortune 500 and Foreign investor taxpayer bailout, of course, but we all got help this time (for once), so......

Certainly a risky approach, but trying anything is better than nothing. Covid really drove city living/loving families to the suburbs. Although we Americans tend to have shot memories... rather hard to decide to move in to a city from the suburbs when work from home is the new norm, and there really is not much incentive. Will be interesting to see where we are in 3-5 years.

Except here in Denver, all the young GenZ kids with disposable income want to live in cities. And they're not having kids until their 30's.

There's a huge demand for housing in Denver now, and Tech keeps moving here....and with that come rich kids and DINK's.

I would agree this is better than doing nothing. Vacant buildings are bad for cities when the numbers get this high. We're at 30%+ vacancy last I checked.

And I should add...we pay taxes BEFORE distributions (we're an LLC) close to seven figures for last year. Businesses get hammered for taxes in CO and Denver, all to protect homeowners, who pay at a much lower rate. Honestly, I have NO IDEA how anyone runs a restaurant in Denver....and it ain't a whole lot better in other cities. My vocation allows me to hear about business conditions in large and small cities.

Rough sledding this year for small biz.

[cradleandshoot]

Crazy times. Major CRE property sells for one third of its last sale price 2011 and $$/sq.ft has dropped by more than half:

https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Market Square broke a record for its price per square foot when the complex was last sold in 2011 for $613M, or about $905 per SF.

This week's deal pencils out to about $464 per SF.

At a time when DC is in the process of changing Penn AveL https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Denver isn't waiting for the market to collapse....they're using Covid recovery funds to find office buildings that can be converted to residential. They've identified around 50.

It's another Fortune 500 and Foreign investor taxpayer bailout, of course, but we all got help this time (for once), so......

Certainly a risky approach, but trying anything is better than nothing. Covid really drove city living/loving families to the suburbs. Although we Americans tend to have shot memories... rather hard to decide to move in to a city from the suburbs when work from home is the new norm, and there really is not much incentive. Will be interesting to see where we are in 3-5 years.

Except here in Denver, all the young GenZ kids with disposable income want to live in cities. And they're not having kids until their 30's.

There's a huge demand for housing in Denver now, and Tech keeps moving here....and with that come rich kids and DINK's.

I would agree this is better than doing nothing. Vacant buildings are bad for cities when the numbers get this high. We're at 30%+ vacancy last I checked.

And I should add...we pay taxes BEFORE distributions (we're an LLC) close to seven figures for last year. Businesses get hammered for taxes in CO and Denver, all to protect homeowners, who pay at a much lower rate. Honestly, I have NO IDEA how anyone runs a restaurant in Denver....and it ain't a whole lot better in other cities. My vocation allows me to hear about business conditions in large and small cities.

Rough sledding this year for small biz.

There is a new trend in restaurants here in Upstate NY. They are calling it a " kitchen tax" It primarily effects people ordering for pick up. The last time my wife and I ordered cheese burgers for dinner the tab was 34 dollars to include the extravagant purchase of onion rings. Bill Grays use to be famous for BOGO that ship has sailed never to be seen again. I'll do all of the burger grilling in my house from now on. FTR pre COVID the same order was under 20 dollars. Some of these restaurants are pricing themselves out of business but I understand they have no other option.

[MDlaxfan76]

Crazy times. Major CRE property sells for one third of its last sale price 2011 and $$/sq.ft has dropped by more than half:

https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Market Square broke a record for its price per square foot when the complex was last sold in 2011 for $613M, or about $905 per SF.

This week's deal pencils out to about $464 per SF.

At a time when DC is in the process of changing Penn AveL https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Denver isn't waiting for the market to collapse....they're using Covid recovery funds to find office buildings that can be converted to residential. They've identified around 50.

It's another Fortune 500 and Foreign investor taxpayer bailout, of course, but we all got help this time (for once), so......

Certainly a risky approach, but trying anything is better than nothing. Covid really drove city living/loving families to the suburbs. Although we Americans tend to have shot memories... rather hard to decide to move in to a city from the suburbs when work from home is the new norm, and there really is not much incentive. Will be interesting to see where we are in 3-5 years.

Except here in Denver, all the young GenZ kids with disposable income want to live in cities. And they're not having kids until their 30's.

There's a huge demand for housing in Denver now, and Tech keeps moving here....and with that come rich kids and DINK's.

I would agree this is better than doing nothing. Vacant buildings are bad for cities when the numbers get this high. We're at 30%+ vacancy last I checked.

And I should add...we pay taxes BEFORE distributions (we're an LLC) close to seven figures for last year. Businesses get hammered for taxes in CO and Denver, all to protect homeowners, who pay at a much lower rate. Honestly, I have NO IDEA how anyone runs a restaurant in Denver....and it ain't a whole lot better in other cities. My vocation allows me to hear about business conditions in large and small cities.

Rough sledding this year for small biz.

There is a new trend in restaurants here in Upstate NY. They are calling it a " kitchen tax" It primarily effects people ordering for pick up. The last time my wife and I ordered cheese burgers for dinner the tab was 34 dollars to include the extravagant purchase of onion rings. Bill Grays use to be famous for BOGO that ship has sailed never to be seen again. I'll do all of the burger grilling in my house from now on. FTR pre COVID the same order was under 20 dollars. Some of these restaurants are pricing themselves out of business but I understand they have no other option.

Guess we need more migrants?

[cradleandshoot]

Crazy times. Major CRE property sells for one third of its last sale price 2011 and $$/sq.ft has dropped by more than half:

https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Market Square broke a record for its price per square foot when the complex was last sold in 2011 for $613M, or about $905 per SF.

This week's deal pencils out to about $464 per SF.

At a time when DC is in the process of changing Penn AveL https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Denver isn't waiting for the market to collapse....they're using Covid recovery funds to find office buildings that can be converted to residential. They've identified around 50.

It's another Fortune 500 and Foreign investor taxpayer bailout, of course, but we all got help this time (for once), so......

Certainly a risky approach, but trying anything is better than nothing. Covid really drove city living/loving families to the suburbs. Although we Americans tend to have shot memories... rather hard to decide to move in to a city from the suburbs when work from home is the new norm, and there really is not much incentive. Will be interesting to see where we are in 3-5 years.

Except here in Denver, all the young GenZ kids with disposable income want to live in cities. And they're not having kids until their 30's.

There's a huge demand for housing in Denver now, and Tech keeps moving here....and with that come rich kids and DINK's.

I would agree this is better than doing nothing. Vacant buildings are bad for cities when the numbers get this high. We're at 30%+ vacancy last I checked.

And I should add...we pay taxes BEFORE distributions (we're an LLC) close to seven figures for last year. Businesses get hammered for taxes in CO and Denver, all to protect homeowners, who pay at a much lower rate. Honestly, I have NO IDEA how anyone runs a restaurant in Denver....and it ain't a whole lot better in other cities. My vocation allows me to hear about business conditions in large and small cities.

Rough sledding this year for small biz.

There is a new trend in restaurants here in Upstate NY. They are calling it a " kitchen tax" It primarily effects people ordering for pick up. The last time my wife and I ordered cheese burgers for dinner the tab was 34 dollars to include the extravagant purchase of onion rings. Bill Grays use to be famous for BOGO that ship has sailed never to be seen again. I'll do all of the burger grilling in my house from now on. FTR pre COVID the same order was under 20 dollars. Some of these restaurants are pricing themselves out of business but I understand they have no other option.

Guess we need more migrants?

There doesn't seem to be a shortage as of right now. If you think Maryland is being short changed I'm sure Gov. Hochul can round up a few extras and send them your way. I'm sure she would consider that a huge solid on your end.

[MDlaxfan76]

Crazy times. Major CRE property sells for one third of its last sale price 2011 and $$/sq.ft has dropped by more than half:

https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Market Square broke a record for its price per square foot when the complex was last sold in 2011 for $613M, or about $905 per SF.

This week's deal pencils out to about $464 per SF.

At a time when DC is in the process of changing Penn AveL https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Denver isn't waiting for the market to collapse....they're using Covid recovery funds to find office buildings that can be converted to residential. They've identified around 50.

It's another Fortune 500 and Foreign investor taxpayer bailout, of course, but we all got help this time (for once), so......

Certainly a risky approach, but trying anything is better than nothing. Covid really drove city living/loving families to the suburbs. Although we Americans tend to have shot memories... rather hard to decide to move in to a city from the suburbs when work from home is the new norm, and there really is not much incentive. Will be interesting to see where we are in 3-5 years.

Except here in Denver, all the young GenZ kids with disposable income want to live in cities. And they're not having kids until their 30's.

There's a huge demand for housing in Denver now, and Tech keeps moving here....and with that come rich kids and DINK's.

I would agree this is better than doing nothing. Vacant buildings are bad for cities when the numbers get this high. We're at 30%+ vacancy last I checked.

And I should add...we pay taxes BEFORE distributions (we're an LLC) close to seven figures for last year. Businesses get hammered for taxes in CO and Denver, all to protect homeowners, who pay at a much lower rate. Honestly, I have NO IDEA how anyone runs a restaurant in Denver....and it ain't a whole lot better in other cities. My vocation allows me to hear about business conditions in large and small cities.

Rough sledding this year for small biz.

There is a new trend in restaurants here in Upstate NY. They are calling it a " kitchen tax" It primarily effects people ordering for pick up. The last time my wife and I ordered cheese burgers for dinner the tab was 34 dollars to include the extravagant purchase of onion rings. Bill Grays use to be famous for BOGO that ship has sailed never to be seen again. I'll do all of the burger grilling in my house from now on. FTR pre COVID the same order was under 20 dollars. Some of these restaurants are pricing themselves out of business but I understand they have no other option.

Guess we need more migrants?

There doesn't seem to be a shortage as of right now. If you think Maryland is being short changed I'm sure Gov. Hochul can round up a few extras and send them your way. I'm sure she would consider that a huge solid on your end.

Sounds like you need some kitchen workers in Upstate...maybe you need to give's sanctuary and a job...

[cradleandshoot]

Crazy times. Major CRE property sells for one third of its last sale price 2011 and $$/sq.ft has dropped by more than half:

https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Market Square broke a record for its price per square foot when the complex was last sold in 2011 for $613M, or about $905 per SF.

This week's deal pencils out to about $464 per SF.

At a time when DC is in the process of changing Penn AveL https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Denver isn't waiting for the market to collapse....they're using Covid recovery funds to find office buildings that can be converted to residential. They've identified around 50.

It's another Fortune 500 and Foreign investor taxpayer bailout, of course, but we all got help this time (for once), so......

Certainly a risky approach, but trying anything is better than nothing. Covid really drove city living/loving families to the suburbs. Although we Americans tend to have shot memories... rather hard to decide to move in to a city from the suburbs when work from home is the new norm, and there really is not much incentive. Will be interesting to see where we are in 3-5 years.

Except here in Denver, all the young GenZ kids with disposable income want to live in cities. And they're not having kids until their 30's.

There's a huge demand for housing in Denver now, and Tech keeps moving here....and with that come rich kids and DINK's.

I would agree this is better than doing nothing. Vacant buildings are bad for cities when the numbers get this high. We're at 30%+ vacancy last I checked.

And I should add...we pay taxes BEFORE distributions (we're an LLC) close to seven figures for last year. Businesses get hammered for taxes in CO and Denver, all to protect homeowners, who pay at a much lower rate. Honestly, I have NO IDEA how anyone runs a restaurant in Denver....and it ain't a whole lot better in other cities. My vocation allows me to hear about business conditions in large and small cities.

Rough sledding this year for small biz.

There is a new trend in restaurants here in Upstate NY. They are calling it a " kitchen tax" It primarily effects people ordering for pick up. The last time my wife and I ordered cheese burgers for dinner the tab was 34 dollars to include the extravagant purchase of onion rings. Bill Grays use to be famous for BOGO that ship has sailed never to be seen again. I'll do all of the burger grilling in my house from now on. FTR pre COVID the same order was under 20 dollars. Some of these restaurants are pricing themselves out of business but I understand they have no other option.

Guess we need more migrants?

There doesn't seem to be a shortage as of right now. If you think Maryland is being short changed I'm sure Gov. Hochul can round up a few extras and send them your way. I'm sure she would consider that a huge solid on your end.

Sounds like you need some kitchen workers in Upstate...maybe you need to give's sanctuary and a job...

Rochester Mayor Malik Evans has a kit and kaboodle of new arrivals he doesn't know what to do with. They can't work because legally they are not eligible to work in NYS. FTR NYS is already a sanctuary state so you can check that box. There are 200 to 300 newbies being housed at a downtown Holiday Inn. NYS is picking up the tab so it is not a big deal yet. Less than a mile from my house there is an on ramp to the route 104 expressway. In a narrow ravine on the right side there is a bunch of tents set up as a homeless encampment. To parrot a theme repeated often is we can't take care of homeless people we have already. There is a bitter taste in some people's mouths about that. No one is offering these homeless people a warm room at the Holiday Inn with 3 squares a day. They have to fend for themselves as best they can. You would think that with this massive influx of cheap labor every city in the USA would be offering that hand of friendship. What you hear in all blue and red cities is NOT HERE...NOT NOW. The new tactic is to storm the border fence overwhelm those poor NG guard troops and tell the US government...EFF YOU.. you can't stop us. Is that suppose to resemble a rational immigration policy?? I don't think so, the USA has no functional immigration policy anymore. It has devolved into a free for all at the southern border. A self inflicted wound. I only wish the IRS was as loosey goosey with enforcement of our tax laws.

[cradleandshoot]

Crazy times. Major CRE property sells for one third of its last sale price 2011 and $$/sq.ft has dropped by more than half:

https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Market Square broke a record for its price per square foot when the complex was last sold in 2011 for $613M, or about $905 per SF.

This week's deal pencils out to about $464 per SF.

At a time when DC is in the process of changing Penn AveL https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Denver isn't waiting for the market to collapse....they're using Covid recovery funds to find office buildings that can be converted to residential. They've identified around 50.

It's another Fortune 500 and Foreign investor taxpayer bailout, of course, but we all got help this time (for once), so......

Certainly a risky approach, but trying anything is better than nothing. Covid really drove city living/loving families to the suburbs. Although we Americans tend to have shot memories... rather hard to decide to move in to a city from the suburbs when work from home is the new norm, and there really is not much incentive. Will be interesting to see where we are in 3-5 years.

Except here in Denver, all the young GenZ kids with disposable income want to live in cities. And they're not having kids until their 30's.

There's a huge demand for housing in Denver now, and Tech keeps moving here....and with that come rich kids and DINK's.

I would agree this is better than doing nothing. Vacant buildings are bad for cities when the numbers get this high. We're at 30%+ vacancy last I checked.

And I should add...we pay taxes BEFORE distributions (we're an LLC) close to seven figures for last year. Businesses get hammered for taxes in CO and Denver, all to protect homeowners, who pay at a much lower rate. Honestly, I have NO IDEA how anyone runs a restaurant in Denver....and it ain't a whole lot better in other cities. My vocation allows me to hear about business conditions in large and small cities.

Rough sledding this year for small biz.

There is a new trend in restaurants here in Upstate NY. They are calling it a " kitchen tax" It primarily effects people ordering for pick up. The last time my wife and I ordered cheese burgers for dinner the tab was 34 dollars to include the extravagant purchase of onion rings. Bill Grays use to be famous for BOGO that ship has sailed never to be seen again. I'll do all of the burger grilling in my house from now on. FTR pre COVID the same order was under 20 dollars. Some of these restaurants are pricing themselves out of business but I understand they have no other option.

Guess we need more migrants?

There doesn't seem to be a shortage as of right now. If you think Maryland is being short changed I'm sure Gov. Hochul can round up a few extras and send them your way. I'm sure she would consider that a huge solid on your end.

Sounds like you need some kitchen workers in Upstate...maybe you need to give's sanctuary and a job...

On a side note where I live no kitchen worker is needed. No Sicilian woman will ever give up her kitchen. There is one big problem with trying to find work for such a large influx of newbies. Unless you have staff that speak Spanish the communication issue becomes problematic.

[a fan]

Crazy times. Major CRE property sells for one third of its last sale price 2011 and $$/sq.ft has dropped by more than half:

https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Market Square broke a record for its price per square foot when the complex was last sold in 2011 for $613M, or about $905 per SF.

This week's deal pencils out to about $464 per SF.

At a time when DC is in the process of changing Penn AveL https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/ne ... dium=email

Denver isn't waiting for the market to collapse....they're using Covid recovery funds to find office buildings that can be converted to residential. They've identified around 50.

It's another Fortune 500 and Foreign investor taxpayer bailout, of course, but we all got help this time (for once), so......

Certainly a risky approach, but trying anything is better than nothing. Covid really drove city living/loving families to the suburbs. Although we Americans tend to have shot memories... rather hard to decide to move in to a city from the suburbs when work from home is the new norm, and there really is not much incentive. Will be interesting to see where we are in 3-5 years.

Except here in Denver, all the young GenZ kids with disposable income want to live in cities. And they're not having kids until their 30's.

There's a huge demand for housing in Denver now, and Tech keeps moving here....and with that come rich kids and DINK's.

I would agree this is better than doing nothing. Vacant buildings are bad for cities when the numbers get this high. We're at 30%+ vacancy last I checked.

And I should add...we pay taxes BEFORE distributions (we're an LLC) close to seven figures for last year. Businesses get hammered for taxes in CO and Denver, all to protect homeowners, who pay at a much lower rate. Honestly, I have NO IDEA how anyone runs a restaurant in Denver....and it ain't a whole lot better in other cities. My vocation allows me to hear about business conditions in large and small cities.

Rough sledding this year for small biz.

There is a new trend in restaurants here in Upstate NY. They are calling it a " kitchen tax" It primarily effects people ordering for pick up. The last time my wife and I ordered cheese burgers for dinner the tab was 34 dollars to include the extravagant purchase of onion rings. Bill Grays use to be famous for BOGO that ship has sailed never to be seen again. I'll do all of the burger grilling in my house from now on. FTR pre COVID the same order was under 20 dollars. Some of these restaurants are pricing themselves out of business but I understand they have no other option.

Guess we need more migrants?

There doesn't seem to be a shortage as of right now. If you think Maryland is being short changed I'm sure Gov. Hochul can round up a few extras and send them your way. I'm sure she would consider that a huge solid on your end.

Sounds like you need some kitchen workers in Upstate...maybe you need to give's sanctuary and a job...

Rochester Mayor Malik Evans has a kit and kaboodle of new arrivals he doesn't know what to do with. They can't work because legally they are not eligible to work in NYS.

Yep. That's why I'm 100% for: give every single one of them Work Visas. There is no logical reason to not do that.

Then they pay taxes, and contribute to our taxbase.

Or, we can keep playing this pointless game of not lifting a finger until we get the perfect solution, and use that as an excuse to do nothing, and maintain the status quo.

If I'm in charge? iPads and mobile printers....give them a VISA on the spot. Keep giving them out until yer done. Fake problem solved.