Princeton versus Maryland

[Wheels]

Wheels. Why doesn’t Burlace the elder one see the field much? I thought he was like a #1 defender coming out of high school? I get it that the team has a freakishly good starting defense, but I’d have thought this kid might see the field occasionally?

I think BJ might be injured right now. Earlier in the season and back into last year, he would bounce between close and LSM. I think he's more comfortable at LSM than close. His younger brother is usually the first close defender in off of the bench. With the Terps bringing in 2 five-star defensemen (one LSM and one close), it's only going to be harder to crack that line up. Zappitello is a sophomore, and Makar is back. Who takes Rahill's role next year will be interesting to watch.

[Peter Brown]

Wheels. Why doesn’t Burlace the elder one see the field much? I thought he was like a #1 defender coming out of high school? I get it that the team has a freakishly good starting defense, but I’d have thought this kid might see the field occasionally?

I think BJ might be injured right now. Earlier in the season and back into last year, he would bounce between close and LSM. I think he's more comfortable at LSM than close. His younger brother is usually the first close defender in off of the bench. With the Terps bringing in 2 five-star defensemen (one LSM and one close), it's only going to be harder to crack that line up. Zappitello is a sophomore, and Makar is back. Who takes Rahill's role next year will be interesting to watch.

Thx

[molo]

I may like the sport, but I’m not delusional. It does not have many blue collar players and is becoming even more insular with the emphasis on clubs and camps only reinfing the prominence of private schools in the sport. A stereotypically rich kids’ sport is becoming more expensive than ever.

[MDGrad2012]

The first Princeton Maryland game is the one MD game this season I didn't watch this season. To distract myself from the horrors of the day I just gave it a watch. Indulge me while I share some thoughts:

1. Wow Peters was good. Multiple times MD was threatening to run away with the game he came up with huge saves with Princeton scoring on the next possession. This wasn't an 18 save performance where he was saving contested 10-15 yard shots (I think a lot of the big save numbers from last weekend were those tbh). He was saving point blank good looks at crucial points in the game. MD was threatening to get out to a big early lead multiple times and he was the sole reason they didn't. 55% might not seem like a crazy save %, but it was an incredible performance. I don't think he gave MD a single easy one. Can he do it again? I don't know, but I think he will have to be spectacular for Princeton to have a chance.

2. Princeton's shooting kept them in the game. The stats do kind of tell the story here. 23 shots, 18 on goal, 10 goals. The only way they were going to be competitive given the possession difference was incredible shooting. I do think McNaney would like a couple back, but I think it was more good shooting from Princeton than issues from McNaney. Can they shoot that well again? I don't think so? The only game they shot a higher percentage was against Monmouth. It is over 10% higher than their season average. A similar shooting efficiency doesn't feel especially likely to me.

3. The faceoffs and possessions were crazy lopsided. Princeton had 17 turnovers to MD's 12. Maryland won 20/29 faceoffs. Wierman had 2 goals. Can this change? Maybe, but this wasn't an outlier performance for MD. Wierman is 66% on the season and turns a ton of those into goals. Perhaps Sandoval makes the difference and keeps it 50/50, but I am honestly not sure it would be enough unless Peters is spectacular and Princeton's offense is as efficient in its possessions as last time. Could that happen? Yes! I probably just wouldn't bet on it. I think if Princeton gets just good play from Peters and their typical offensive performance, they will need to win the possession battle by quite a bit. That seems like a bigger stretch to me.

4. DeMaio was not good at all. The boxscore says 0-8 with a turnover, and he earned it. The 3 that weren't on goal were waaaay off and the 5 that were on goal were pretty much stick side high (every 18 save performance is going to have some of these!). He has been on a tear lately, but even an average performance would be a big improvement.

5. The close defense for Princeton was really good. Billings and Finlay did a great job on Khan and Malever (and later Maltz), respectively. Wis got his, but it wasn't dodging Baughan. Amazing that Wis got 4-2 without dodging. A lot of people say he isn't as deserving of praise because he isn't the "quarterback" dodger like Shelly or Brandau. This past weekend shows why MD wouldn't trade him for any attackman in the country. What he does off ball means he is going to score 4+ points no matter how good the defender is. Shelly and Brandau were completely erased by great on ball defense. On a team without as many other great dodgers/passers he might not be as valuable, but in his role he is the most consistently excellent player in the country.

6. Maryland hadn't put Murphy into his current role. Maltz actually played most of the second half. Murphy's insertion on attack during the UVA game transformed the MD offense. It will be interesting to see how Princeton addresses it.

7. English was really good. He didn't draw the pole in this game and I would be shocked if that wasn't a major change in the plan for MD.

8. Finally, it really didn't feel that close... There seems to be a narrative that the game was one of Maryland's closest games of the year, and while that is technically true (only Syracuse and ND were closer on the scoreboard), this game was basically in MD's control from the start. It was between 3-5 the entire second half and Peters and a Long shot off the crossbar were really the only reasons it was as close as it was. I already knew the outcome of course, so maybe I would have felt differently watching it live, but this was a pretty one-sided affair even with a couple things going really well for Princeton (the possession difference being the major thing that did not go their way).

A couple of parting thoughts:
- I have really only watched the MD, Penn, and QF Yale games from Princeton, so I don't know as much about them as I do MD. I am a MD fan with MD bias, so take everything above with a large grain of salt.
-I think the -6.5 line for MD seems about right based on the last game and what I know about the two teams? Princeton is very clearly one of the top teams in the country. I don't think it is crazy, however, to say that UVA and Rutgers are as well. And Maryland beat those 3 teams by between 5 and 11 goals. Don't get me wrong, as a MD fan I am full of scar tissue from past disappointments and I cringe every time I hear or see anyone crowning them before memorial day. Princeton can absolutely win this game, but it would take major deviations from the typical performances of both teams and from the previous game.

[Peter Brown]

The first Princeton Maryland game is the one MD game this season I didn't watch this season. To distract myself from the horrors of the day I just gave it a watch. Indulge me while I share some thoughts:

1. Wow Peters was good. Multiple times MD was threatening to run away with the game he came up with huge saves with Princeton scoring on the next possession. This wasn't an 18 save performance where he was saving contested 10-15 yard shots (I think a lot of the big save numbers from last weekend were those tbh). He was saving point blank good looks at crucial points in the game. MD was threatening to get out to a big early lead multiple times and he was the sole reason they didn't. 55% might not seem like a crazy save %, but it was an incredible performance. I don't think he gave MD a single easy one. Can he do it again? I don't know, but I think he will have to be spectacular for Princeton to have a chance.

2. Princeton's shooting kept them in the game. The stats do kind of tell the story here. 23 shots, 18 on goal, 10 goals. The only way they were going to be competitive given the possession difference was incredible shooting. I do think McNaney would like a couple back, but I think it was more good shooting from Princeton than issues from McNaney. Can they shoot that well again? I don't think so? The only game they shot a higher percentage was against Monmouth. It is over 10% higher than their season average. A similar shooting efficiency doesn't feel especially likely to me.

3. The faceoffs and possessions were crazy lopsided. Princeton had 17 turnovers to MD's 12. Maryland won 20/29 faceoffs. Wierman had 2 goals. Can this change? Maybe, but this wasn't an outlier performance for MD. Wierman is 66% on the season and turns a ton of those into goals. Perhaps Sandoval makes the difference and keeps it 50/50, but I am honestly not sure it would be enough unless Peters is spectacular and Princeton's offense is as efficient in its possessions as last time. Could that happen? Yes! I probably just wouldn't bet on it. I think if Princeton gets just good play from Peters and their typical offensive performance, they will need to win the possession battle by quite a bit. That seems like a bigger stretch to me.

4. DeMaio was not good at all. The boxscore says 0-8 with a turnover, and he earned it. The 3 that weren't on goal were waaaay off and the 5 that were on goal were pretty much stick side high (every 18 save performance is going to have some of these!). He has been on a tear lately, but even an average performance would be a big improvement.

5. The close defense for Princeton was really good. Billings and Finlay did a great job on Khan and Malever (and later Maltz), respectively. Wis got his, but it wasn't dodging Baughan. Amazing that Wis got 4-2 without dodging. A lot of people say he isn't as deserving of praise because he isn't the "quarterback" dodger like Shelly or Brandau. This past weekend shows why MD wouldn't trade him for any attackman in the country. What he does off ball means he is going to score 4+ points no matter how good the defender is. Shelly and Brandau were completely erased by great on ball defense. On a team without as many other great dodgers/passers he might not be as valuable, but in his role he is the most consistently excellent player in the country.

6. Maryland hadn't put Murphy into his current role. Maltz actually played most of the second half. Murphy's insertion on attack during the UVA game transformed the MD offense. It will be interesting to see how Princeton addresses it.

7. English was really good. He didn't draw the pole in this game and I would be shocked if that wasn't a major change in the plan for MD.

8. Finally, it really didn't feel that close... There seems to be a narrative that the game was one of Maryland's closest games of the year, and while that is technically true (only Syracuse and ND were closer on the scoreboard), this game was basically in MD's control from the start. It was between 3-5 the entire second half and Peters and a Long shot off the crossbar were really the only reasons it was as close as it was. I already knew the outcome of course, so maybe I would have felt differently watching it live, but this was a pretty one-sided affair even with a couple things going really well for Princeton (the possession difference being the major thing that did not go their way).

A couple of parting thoughts:
- I have really only watched the MD, Penn, and QF Yale games from Princeton, so I don't know as much about them as I do MD. I am a MD fan with MD bias, so take everything above with a large grain of salt.
-I think the -6.5 line for MD seems about right based on the last game and what I know about the two teams? Princeton is very clearly one of the top teams in the country. I don't think it is crazy, however, to say that UVA and Rutgers are as well. And Maryland beat those 3 teams by between 5 and 11 goals. Don't get me wrong, as a MD fan I am full of scar tissue from past disappointments and I cringe every time I hear or see anyone crowning them before memorial day. Princeton can absolutely win this game, but it would take major deviations from the typical performances of both teams and from the previous game.

This is a really great post. Thx.

[MoralTerpitude]

Awesome write up. It’s also one of the few games I didn’t watch (freakin BTN+!!!), but definitely going to check it out on youtube.

If you haven’t watched Cornell-Princeton, highly recommend you do.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Awesome write up. It’s also one of the few games I didn’t watch (freakin BTN+!!!), but definitely going to check it out on youtube.

If you haven’t watched Cornell-Princeton, highly recommend you do.

That was an odd game (first quarter).

[SpiritInTheStick]

Has Peter Brown ever heard of Boys Latin ?
Yeah... that's a blue collar school.

Don't forget Deerfield (2) Woodward Academy, Landon (2), Georgetown Prep, Loyola Blakefield (3), Salisbury School (2), Calvert Hall (2), WilmingtonFriends, Avon Old Farms. Does St Mary's count? But never want to ruin a good narrative.

The narrative is less the nature of the high school and more the nature of the player. Boys Latin might be private, but Wisnauskas isn’t a prep school type athlete. Nor was Colin Heacock for that matter. These guys are tough as nails.

If you run down the Terps roster, generally the same thing can be said for most of their players. They just seem more ‘blue collar’ to me.

Good point. Not sure that Princeton has any guys that are "tough as nails" on their roster. Especially if you don't count George Baughan who had the biggest hit of the weekend and their huge dmid that has been throwing people around all year.

I guess if you can just decide that certain players get to be blue or white collar depending on what college they go to, it is easy to create whatever narrative sounds cool!

[MoralTerpitude]

Some additions to Grad2012’s excellent post, after watching the first half.
-English scored his goals on four different guys. Brennan, then Rahill, then Puglise, and finally Higgins. Basically got a step and ran right by both Rahill and Higgins. Puglise gave him a really tight angle down an alley, but English was able to can it.
-Groundballs and faceoffs seemed pretty even in the first half - Wierman was able to win several faceoffs, but uncharacteristically was not able to secure the groundball, and Princeton’s wings mopped up. After looking at the box score, indeed the Terps only won the GB battle 16-13 and the FO battle 10-7 in the first half. It actually reminded me a lot of the Notre Dame game the way Princeton matched the Terps’ effort and was able to disrupt our offense.
-The announcers did mention that Princeton had played that previous Tuesday (though it was a blowout, so they presumably didn’t play their starters to the end). So it’s possible Princeton didn’t have as fresh legs in the fourth quarter. The numbers certainly tilted in the Terps’ favor in the second half.
-Princeton’s ride was as effective against the Terps as any I’ve seen against them all year.
-Donville dodged more in the first half than I’ve seen him dodge in any subsequent game. Took his man a couple of times and took it to the cage, as opposed to mostly just getting his feet set and shooting from range the last half of the season.

[MoralTerpitude]

Good point. Not sure that Princeton has any guys that are "tough as nails" on their roster. Especially if you don't count George Baughan who had the biggest hit of the weekend and their huge dmid that has been throwing people around all year.

I guess if you can just decide that certain players get to be blue or white collar depending on what college they go to, it is easy to create whatever narrative sounds cool!

Word is he also stole Carc’s gold chain.

[MDralphie]

Princeton is an excellent team but only the hope to keep it close will be Peters playing out of his mind. He had a great game first time around especially The first half. The other question how to score goals against this defense? Md D is much better now than in Feb.

[emo_specialist]

The first Princeton Maryland game is the one MD game this season I didn't watch this season. To distract myself from the horrors of the day I just gave it a watch. Indulge me while I share some thoughts:

1. Wow Peters was good. Multiple times MD was threatening to run away with the game he came up with huge saves with Princeton scoring on the next possession. This wasn't an 18 save performance where he was saving contested 10-15 yard shots (I think a lot of the big save numbers from last weekend were those tbh). He was saving point blank good looks at crucial points in the game. MD was threatening to get out to a big early lead multiple times and he was the sole reason they didn't. 55% might not seem like a crazy save %, but it was an incredible performance. I don't think he gave MD a single easy one. Can he do it again? I don't know, but I think he will have to be spectacular for Princeton to have a chance.

2. Princeton's shooting kept them in the game. The stats do kind of tell the story here. 23 shots, 18 on goal, 10 goals. The only way they were going to be competitive given the possession difference was incredible shooting. I do think McNaney would like a couple back, but I think it was more good shooting from Princeton than issues from McNaney. Can they shoot that well again? I don't think so? The only game they shot a higher percentage was against Monmouth. It is over 10% higher than their season average. A similar shooting efficiency doesn't feel especially likely to me.

3. The faceoffs and possessions were crazy lopsided. Princeton had 17 turnovers to MD's 12. Maryland won 20/29 faceoffs. Wierman had 2 goals. Can this change? Maybe, but this wasn't an outlier performance for MD. Wierman is 66% on the season and turns a ton of those into goals. Perhaps Sandoval makes the difference and keeps it 50/50, but I am honestly not sure it would be enough unless Peters is spectacular and Princeton's offense is as efficient in its possessions as last time. Could that happen? Yes! I probably just wouldn't bet on it. I think if Princeton gets just good play from Peters and their typical offensive performance, they will need to win the possession battle by quite a bit. That seems like a bigger stretch to me.

4. DeMaio was not good at all. The boxscore says 0-8 with a turnover, and he earned it. The 3 that weren't on goal were waaaay off and the 5 that were on goal were pretty much stick side high (every 18 save performance is going to have some of these!). He has been on a tear lately, but even an average performance would be a big improvement.

5. The close defense for Princeton was really good. Billings and Finlay did a great job on Khan and Malever (and later Maltz), respectively. Wis got his, but it wasn't dodging Baughan. Amazing that Wis got 4-2 without dodging. A lot of people say he isn't as deserving of praise because he isn't the "quarterback" dodger like Shelly or Brandau. This past weekend shows why MD wouldn't trade him for any attackman in the country. What he does off ball means he is going to score 4+ points no matter how good the defender is. Shelly and Brandau were completely erased by great on ball defense. On a team without as many other great dodgers/passers he might not be as valuable, but in his role he is the most consistently excellent player in the country.

6. Maryland hadn't put Murphy into his current role. Maltz actually played most of the second half. Murphy's insertion on attack during the UVA game transformed the MD offense. It will be interesting to see how Princeton addresses it.

7. English was really good. He didn't draw the pole in this game and I would be shocked if that wasn't a major change in the plan for MD.

8. Finally, it really didn't feel that close... There seems to be a narrative that the game was one of Maryland's closest games of the year, and while that is technically true (only Syracuse and ND were closer on the scoreboard), this game was basically in MD's control from the start. It was between 3-5 the entire second half and Peters and a Long shot off the crossbar were really the only reasons it was as close as it was. I already knew the outcome of course, so maybe I would have felt differently watching it live, but this was a pretty one-sided affair even with a couple things going really well for Princeton (the possession difference being the major thing that did not go their way).

A couple of parting thoughts:
- I have really only watched the MD, Penn, and QF Yale games from Princeton, so I don't know as much about them as I do MD. I am a MD fan with MD bias, so take everything above with a large grain of salt.
-I think the -6.5 line for MD seems about right based on the last game and what I know about the two teams? Princeton is very clearly one of the top teams in the country. I don't think it is crazy, however, to say that UVA and Rutgers are as well. And Maryland beat those 3 teams by between 5 and 11 goals. Don't get me wrong, as a MD fan I am full of scar tissue from past disappointments and I cringe every time I hear or see anyone crowning them before memorial day. Princeton can absolutely win this game, but it would take major deviations from the typical performances of both teams and from the previous game.

Great analysis, but after watching film from a Princeton perspective, and mostly to play devil's advocate, I'd like to add a few thoughts. I don't think Princeton wins, but this is the case for them to cover 6.5, or hopefully 7.5, if the line keeps moving...

1) You didn't directly reference Sandoval and Ginder being out, but I'm assuming that's what you meant by "perhaps Sandoval makes a difference". I know the face-off situation was harped on earlier in the thread, so I won't hammer it, but with better FO play, combined with the elite rope unit of Song and Stevens, draws, and thus possessions, should be less lopsided.

2) Princeton didn't struggle to generate quality offensive looks. Princeton offers a unique matchup for Maryland in that they don't play hero ball like UVA or other traditional opponents do. Their offense is much more unpredictable. They always have 6 guys on the field who are a threat to dodge and score, including an armada of two-way midfielders who know how to play within their pairs system. Their ability to challenge Rahill (watch tape, he's very beatable) or the #2/3 SSDM, is a distinct advantage compared to teams like UVA who play an off-ball attackman and midfielder in their 3/6 spots like UVA did with Cormier/Dickson. If you watch the tape, you'll also see Princeton get to the middle of the field at 10 yards almost as much as they wanted off the 1-4-1 high wing pick late in the shot clock.

3) Princeton's talent is underrated. They have 4 or 5 players on the USA and Canada U-21 teams, and that's not including Baughan, Stevens (Currier 2.0), and English. Their top guys are just as athletic as anyone Maryland puts out there. I realize depth is an issue, Maryland is definitely deeper, but that's why this is a case for Princeton to cover 6.5 or 7.5, not to win outright.

4) Defensively, you can't slide to Maryland ball-handlers, and Princeton doesn't have to. Put Baughan on Khan, Billings on Malever, and leave Mulshine or Finlay on Wisnauskas...I've watched all the Maryland games this year, and I don't think he's done anything on ball this year to deserve a #1 cover defenseman or quick slide. If he beats you for a few 1v1, then change the matchup, but if he beats you for a few on the crease, who cares? Princeton is talented enough at DMid that they won't have to slide as much as UVA did, and their poles are certainly as capable as Kastner and Saustad.

5) Attitdue. I think Princeton comes into this with a bulldog mentality. They have nothing to lose. Baughan slides high and late, so what? Slusher rips a 15 yard time and room that goes wide, so what? Play out on the Terps, pressure their hands, and disrupt the rhythm that their offense thrives on. What do you have to lose? You're +650 underdogs so you might as well go out swinging.

Again, I don't think Princeton can beat Maryland, nobody (aside from ND) can. This is a just a case for them to cover 6.5 or (hopefully) 7.5.

[Cno3putts]

Do people realize ND is not in this year ? Lots think they can beat Md. They had their opportunity and didn't cash. Don't understand how ND keeps showing up on here.

[joewillie78]

Do people realize ND is not in this year ? Lots think they can beat Md. They had their opportunity and didn't cash. Don't understand how ND keeps showing up on here.

Obviously, no matter how hard we try to get ND out of our heads, the 3 meatballs have completely succeeded in instilling ND into all our subconcious, almost to the point of saying that even if MD romps undefeated to the championship, that the "3 meathead motto", will be that they didn't have to face ND.
Got to give the 3 meatballs credit for how they have made a Maryland christening all about NOTRE DAME.
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

[nms]

...
Again, I don't think Princeton can beat Maryland, nobody (aside from ND) can. This is a just a case for them to cover 6.5 or (hopefully) 7.5.

I was really hoping it was meant to be read as "(aside from ND )"

[Seacoaster(1)]

I apologize if someone already brought this up: why is Maryland in the second game?

[Typical Lax Dad]

Good point. Not sure that Princeton has any guys that are "tough as nails" on their roster. Especially if you don't count George Baughan who had the biggest hit of the weekend and their huge dmid that has been throwing people around all year.

I guess if you can just decide that certain players get to be blue or white collar depending on what college they go to, it is easy to create whatever narrative sounds cool!

Word is he also stole Carc’s gold chain.

Look for all the gold chains on the Tiger faithful on Saturday. It’s a sight.

[Peter Brown]

The first Princeton Maryland game is the one MD game this season I didn't watch this season. To distract myself from the horrors of the day I just gave it a watch. Indulge me while I share some thoughts:

1. Wow Peters was good. Multiple times MD was threatening to run away with the game he came up with huge saves with Princeton scoring on the next possession. This wasn't an 18 save performance where he was saving contested 10-15 yard shots (I think a lot of the big save numbers from last weekend were those tbh). He was saving point blank good looks at crucial points in the game. MD was threatening to get out to a big early lead multiple times and he was the sole reason they didn't. 55% might not seem like a crazy save %, but it was an incredible performance. I don't think he gave MD a single easy one. Can he do it again? I don't know, but I think he will have to be spectacular for Princeton to have a chance.

2. Princeton's shooting kept them in the game. The stats do kind of tell the story here. 23 shots, 18 on goal, 10 goals. The only way they were going to be competitive given the possession difference was incredible shooting. I do think McNaney would like a couple back, but I think it was more good shooting from Princeton than issues from McNaney. Can they shoot that well again? I don't think so? The only game they shot a higher percentage was against Monmouth. It is over 10% higher than their season average. A similar shooting efficiency doesn't feel especially likely to me.

3. The faceoffs and possessions were crazy lopsided. Princeton had 17 turnovers to MD's 12. Maryland won 20/29 faceoffs. Wierman had 2 goals. Can this change? Maybe, but this wasn't an outlier performance for MD. Wierman is 66% on the season and turns a ton of those into goals. Perhaps Sandoval makes the difference and keeps it 50/50, but I am honestly not sure it would be enough unless Peters is spectacular and Princeton's offense is as efficient in its possessions as last time. Could that happen? Yes! I probably just wouldn't bet on it. I think if Princeton gets just good play from Peters and their typical offensive performance, they will need to win the possession battle by quite a bit. That seems like a bigger stretch to me.

4. DeMaio was not good at all. The boxscore says 0-8 with a turnover, and he earned it. The 3 that weren't on goal were waaaay off and the 5 that were on goal were pretty much stick side high (every 18 save performance is going to have some of these!). He has been on a tear lately, but even an average performance would be a big improvement.

5. The close defense for Princeton was really good. Billings and Finlay did a great job on Khan and Malever (and later Maltz), respectively. Wis got his, but it wasn't dodging Baughan. Amazing that Wis got 4-2 without dodging. A lot of people say he isn't as deserving of praise because he isn't the "quarterback" dodger like Shelly or Brandau. This past weekend shows why MD wouldn't trade him for any attackman in the country. What he does off ball means he is going to score 4+ points no matter how good the defender is. Shelly and Brandau were completely erased by great on ball defense. On a team without as many other great dodgers/passers he might not be as valuable, but in his role he is the most consistently excellent player in the country.

6. Maryland hadn't put Murphy into his current role. Maltz actually played most of the second half. Murphy's insertion on attack during the UVA game transformed the MD offense. It will be interesting to see how Princeton addresses it.

7. English was really good. He didn't draw the pole in this game and I would be shocked if that wasn't a major change in the plan for MD.

8. Finally, it really didn't feel that close... There seems to be a narrative that the game was one of Maryland's closest games of the year, and while that is technically true (only Syracuse and ND were closer on the scoreboard), this game was basically in MD's control from the start. It was between 3-5 the entire second half and Peters and a Long shot off the crossbar were really the only reasons it was as close as it was. I already knew the outcome of course, so maybe I would have felt differently watching it live, but this was a pretty one-sided affair even with a couple things going really well for Princeton (the possession difference being the major thing that did not go their way).

A couple of parting thoughts:
- I have really only watched the MD, Penn, and QF Yale games from Princeton, so I don't know as much about them as I do MD. I am a MD fan with MD bias, so take everything above with a large grain of salt.
-I think the -6.5 line for MD seems about right based on the last game and what I know about the two teams? Princeton is very clearly one of the top teams in the country. I don't think it is crazy, however, to say that UVA and Rutgers are as well. And Maryland beat those 3 teams by between 5 and 11 goals. Don't get me wrong, as a MD fan I am full of scar tissue from past disappointments and I cringe every time I hear or see anyone crowning them before memorial day. Princeton can absolutely win this game, but it would take major deviations from the typical performances of both teams and from the previous game.

Great analysis, but after watching film from a Princeton perspective, and mostly to play devil's advocate, I'd like to add a few thoughts. I don't think Princeton wins, but this is the case for them to cover 6.5, or hopefully 7.5, if the line keeps moving...

1) You didn't directly reference Sandoval and Ginder being out, but I'm assuming that's what you meant by "perhaps Sandoval makes a difference". I know the face-off situation was harped on earlier in the thread, so I won't hammer it, but with better FO play, combined with the elite rope unit of Song and Stevens, draws, and thus possessions, should be less lopsided.

2) Princeton didn't struggle to generate quality offensive looks. Princeton offers a unique matchup for Maryland in that they don't play hero ball like UVA or other traditional opponents do. Their offense is much more unpredictable. They always have 6 guys on the field who are a threat to dodge and score, including an armada of two-way midfielders who know how to play within their pairs system. Their ability to challenge Rahill (watch tape, he's very beatable) or the #2/3 SSDM, is a distinct advantage compared to teams like UVA who play an off-ball attackman and midfielder in their 3/6 spots like UVA did with Cormier/Dickson. If you watch the tape, you'll also see Princeton get to the middle of the field at 10 yards almost as much as they wanted off the 1-4-1 high wing pick late in the shot clock.

3) Princeton's talent is underrated. They have 4 or 5 players on the USA and Canada U-21 teams, and that's not including Baughan, Stevens (Currier 2.0), and English. Their top guys are just as athletic as anyone Maryland puts out there. I realize depth is an issue, Maryland is definitely deeper, but that's why this is a case for Princeton to cover 6.5 or 7.5, not to win outright.

4) Defensively, you can't slide to Maryland ball-handlers, and Princeton doesn't have to. Put Baughan on Khan, Billings on Malever, and leave Mulshine or Finlay on Wisnauskas...I've watched all the Maryland games this year, and I don't think he's done anything on ball this year to deserve a #1 cover defenseman or quick slide. If he beats you for a few 1v1, then change the matchup, but if he beats you for a few on the crease, who cares? Princeton is talented enough at DMid that they won't have to slide as much as UVA did, and their poles are certainly as capable as Kastner and Saustad.

5) Attitdue. I think Princeton comes into this with a bulldog mentality. They have nothing to lose. Baughan slides high and late, so what? Slusher rips a 15 yard time and room that goes wide, so what? Play out on the Terps, pressure their hands, and disrupt the rhythm that their offense thrives on. What do you have to lose? You're +650 underdogs so you might as well go out swinging.

Again, I don't think Princeton can beat Maryland, nobody (aside from ND) can. This is a just a case for them to cover 6.5 or (hopefully) 7.5.

Another really good post. Thx.

[Typical Lax Dad]

The first Princeton Maryland game is the one MD game this season I didn't watch this season. To distract myself from the horrors of the day I just gave it a watch. Indulge me while I share some thoughts:

1. Wow Peters was good. Multiple times MD was threatening to run away with the game he came up with huge saves with Princeton scoring on the next possession. This wasn't an 18 save performance where he was saving contested 10-15 yard shots (I think a lot of the big save numbers from last weekend were those tbh). He was saving point blank good looks at crucial points in the game. MD was threatening to get out to a big early lead multiple times and he was the sole reason they didn't. 55% might not seem like a crazy save %, but it was an incredible performance. I don't think he gave MD a single easy one. Can he do it again? I don't know, but I think he will have to be spectacular for Princeton to have a chance.

2. Princeton's shooting kept them in the game. The stats do kind of tell the story here. 23 shots, 18 on goal, 10 goals. The only way they were going to be competitive given the possession difference was incredible shooting. I do think McNaney would like a couple back, but I think it was more good shooting from Princeton than issues from McNaney. Can they shoot that well again? I don't think so? The only game they shot a higher percentage was against Monmouth. It is over 10% higher than their season average. A similar shooting efficiency doesn't feel especially likely to me.

3. The faceoffs and possessions were crazy lopsided. Princeton had 17 turnovers to MD's 12. Maryland won 20/29 faceoffs. Wierman had 2 goals. Can this change? Maybe, but this wasn't an outlier performance for MD. Wierman is 66% on the season and turns a ton of those into goals. Perhaps Sandoval makes the difference and keeps it 50/50, but I am honestly not sure it would be enough unless Peters is spectacular and Princeton's offense is as efficient in its possessions as last time. Could that happen? Yes! I probably just wouldn't bet on it. I think if Princeton gets just good play from Peters and their typical offensive performance, they will need to win the possession battle by quite a bit. That seems like a bigger stretch to me.

4. DeMaio was not good at all. The boxscore says 0-8 with a turnover, and he earned it. The 3 that weren't on goal were waaaay off and the 5 that were on goal were pretty much stick side high (every 18 save performance is going to have some of these!). He has been on a tear lately, but even an average performance would be a big improvement.

5. The close defense for Princeton was really good. Billings and Finlay did a great job on Khan and Malever (and later Maltz), respectively. Wis got his, but it wasn't dodging Baughan. Amazing that Wis got 4-2 without dodging. A lot of people say he isn't as deserving of praise because he isn't the "quarterback" dodger like Shelly or Brandau. This past weekend shows why MD wouldn't trade him for any attackman in the country. What he does off ball means he is going to score 4+ points no matter how good the defender is. Shelly and Brandau were completely erased by great on ball defense. On a team without as many other great dodgers/passers he might not be as valuable, but in his role he is the most consistently excellent player in the country.

6. Maryland hadn't put Murphy into his current role. Maltz actually played most of the second half. Murphy's insertion on attack during the UVA game transformed the MD offense. It will be interesting to see how Princeton addresses it.

7. English was really good. He didn't draw the pole in this game and I would be shocked if that wasn't a major change in the plan for MD.

8. Finally, it really didn't feel that close... There seems to be a narrative that the game was one of Maryland's closest games of the year, and while that is technically true (only Syracuse and ND were closer on the scoreboard), this game was basically in MD's control from the start. It was between 3-5 the entire second half and Peters and a Long shot off the crossbar were really the only reasons it was as close as it was. I already knew the outcome of course, so maybe I would have felt differently watching it live, but this was a pretty one-sided affair even with a couple things going really well for Princeton (the possession difference being the major thing that did not go their way).

A couple of parting thoughts:
- I have really only watched the MD, Penn, and QF Yale games from Princeton, so I don't know as much about them as I do MD. I am a MD fan with MD bias, so take everything above with a large grain of salt.
-I think the -6.5 line for MD seems about right based on the last game and what I know about the two teams? Princeton is very clearly one of the top teams in the country. I don't think it is crazy, however, to say that UVA and Rutgers are as well. And Maryland beat those 3 teams by between 5 and 11 goals. Don't get me wrong, as a MD fan I am full of scar tissue from past disappointments and I cringe every time I hear or see anyone crowning them before memorial day. Princeton can absolutely win this game, but it would take major deviations from the typical performances of both teams and from the previous game.

Great analysis, but after watching film from a Princeton perspective, and mostly to play devil's advocate, I'd like to add a few thoughts. I don't think Princeton wins, but this is the case for them to cover 6.5, or hopefully 7.5, if the line keeps moving...

1) You didn't directly reference Sandoval and Ginder being out, but I'm assuming that's what you meant by "perhaps Sandoval makes a difference". I know the face-off situation was harped on earlier in the thread, so I won't hammer it, but with better FO play, combined with the elite rope unit of Song and Stevens, draws, and thus possessions, should be less lopsided.

2) Princeton didn't struggle to generate quality offensive looks. Princeton offers a unique matchup for Maryland in that they don't play hero ball like UVA or other traditional opponents do. Their offense is much more unpredictable. They always have 6 guys on the field who are a threat to dodge and score, including an armada of two-way midfielders who know how to play within their pairs system. Their ability to challenge Rahill (watch tape, he's very beatable) or the #2/3 SSDM, is a distinct advantage compared to teams like UVA who play an off-ball attackman and midfielder in their 3/6 spots like UVA did with Cormier/Dickson. If you watch the tape, you'll also see Princeton get to the middle of the field at 10 yards almost as much as they wanted off the 1-4-1 high wing pick late in the shot clock.

3) Princeton's talent is underrated. They have 4 or 5 players on the USA and Canada U-21 teams, and that's not including Baughan, Stevens (Currier 2.0), and English. Their top guys are just as athletic as anyone Maryland puts out there. I realize depth is an issue, Maryland is definitely deeper, but that's why this is a case for Princeton to cover 6.5 or 7.5, not to win outright.

4) Defensively, you can't slide to Maryland ball-handlers, and Princeton doesn't have to. Put Baughan on Khan, Billings on Malever, and leave Mulshine or Finlay on Wisnauskas...I've watched all the Maryland games this year, and I don't think he's done anything on ball this year to deserve a #1 cover defenseman or quick slide. If he beats you for a few 1v1, then change the matchup, but if he beats you for a few on the crease, who cares? Princeton is talented enough at DMid that they won't have to slide as much as UVA did, and their poles are certainly as capable as Kastner and Saustad.

5) Attitdue. I think Princeton comes into this with a bulldog mentality. They have nothing to lose. Baughan slides high and late, so what? Slusher rips a 15 yard time and room that goes wide, so what? Play out on the Terps, pressure their hands, and disrupt the rhythm that their offense thrives on. What do you have to lose? You're +650 underdogs so you might as well go out swinging.

Again, I don't think Princeton can beat Maryland, nobody (aside from ND) can. This is a just a case for them to cover 6.5 or (hopefully) 7.5.

You have been paying attention.

[MDlaxfan76]

...
Again, I don't think Princeton can beat Maryland, nobody (aside from ND) can. This is a just a case for them to cover 6.5 or (hopefully) 7.5.

I was really hoping it was meant to be read as "(aside from ND )"

That's the way I read it, a wisecrack. Humor.