LaxPower Back-Up Stick

Posted: **Mon Mar 14, 2022 11:10 am**

The top two teams are meeting for a Maryland home game although it's being held nearby in DC.

These teams are very close statistically in team offense and points, with Maryland slightly edging UVA.

In goal, McNaney has a better goals-against average, although Nunes' save percentage is better.

Wierman has a better faceoff winning percentage than LaSalla but both are in the top 10.

The forecast looks fine so far. Partly cloudy and in the 60s.

Given that this is a Maryland home game, the revenge factor from last year, and them having the slight statistical edge in some categories, I'd expect a close game with the Terps coming out on top.

Posted: **Mon Mar 14, 2022 11:17 am**

looking forward to watching Each D match up against the other Offense.

Posted: **Mon Mar 14, 2022 11:51 am**

Gatsby wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 11:10 am The top two teams are meeting for a Maryland home game although it's being held nearby in DC.

These teams are very close statistically in team offense and points, with Maryland slightly edging UVA.

In goal, McNaney has a better goals-against average, although Nunes' save percentage is better.

Wierman has a better faceoff winning percentage than LaSalla but both are in the top 10.

The forecast looks fine so far. Partly cloudy and in the 60s.

Given that this is a Maryland home game, the revenge factor from last year, and them having the slight statistical edge in some categories, I'd expect a close game with the Terps coming out on top.

Barring a blow out by either team, you could argue they should still remain 1 and 2 afterwards

Posted: **Mon Mar 14, 2022 11:55 am**

blue angels wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 11:51 am
Barring a blow out by either team, you could argue they should still remain 1 and 2 afterwards

Perhaps one of the Ivy teams show a higher ceiling (e.g., Princeton) as the season progresses, but I'm not sure a blowout by either would change my opinion that these are the top two teams.

Posted: **Mon Mar 14, 2022 12:21 pm**

If UMD wins I think you have to repaint the PTon resume since there’s be overlapping losses to UMD and PTons wins vs GT & Rutgers probably superior to UVAs top two wins (UNC and pick one from Cuse/HPU/Hop-say Hop).

Posted: **Mon Mar 14, 2022 1:29 pm**

I've got no idea who is gonna win this game, I've already changed my mind twice. Right now I'm leaning toward UVA for the presumed faceoff advantage, and I think their road battle with UNC last week was better prep than Maryland's sleepwalk demolition of Albany in their indoor facility. But I'll probably change my mind again before the weekend. Maryland can exploit the UVA defense without Saustad. Staying away from the sportsbooks on this one.

Posted: **Mon Mar 14, 2022 3:48 pm**

Should be a great game.

Not sure even a lopsided score changes the rankings, "resumes" of the Ivy's or no.

Posted: **Mon Mar 14, 2022 3:53 pm**

HooDat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 3:48 pm Should be a great game.

Not sure even a lopsided score changes the rankings, "resumes" of the Ivy's or no.

The only way it changes for me materially is if Maryland beats UVA by 6+ goals.

Posted: **Mon Mar 14, 2022 3:56 pm**

No clue who wins, but I'd be surprised if it wasn't another high scoring explosion like last year. Just too much talent on the two offenses, both executing at too high a level, even with the fact these are two really good defenses with goalies playing well as well.

FO matchup will be interesting. Wierman and Lasalla were basically dead even in the championship and Wierman's been terrific this year. Obvs Lasalla always gets the adv going in, but could be closer than people expect

Posted: **Mon Mar 14, 2022 4:31 pm**

jrn19 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 3:56 pm
FO matchup will be interesting. Wierman and Lasalla were basically dead even in the championship and Wierman's been terrific this year. Obvs Lasalla always gets the adv going in, but could be closer than people expect

Don’t forget that Lasalla played that championship game with a pretty bad hamstring injury. Still went 57% with a goal and an assist. Makes his performance that much more impressive.

The Tygh factor is interesting too. I’m sure he’s very familiar with counters that Lasalla doesn’t enjoy facing.

Expecting a high scoring game. UMD has to have a mental edge given the revenge factor. Terps have been staring all year at a banner in their locker room with the score of the last championship game. UVA missing 2 of their top 3 poles will also play a factor. I’m going with the Terps in a close one.

Posted: **Mon Mar 14, 2022 6:59 pm**

I wasn’t aware of that. Gotta give him credit, he is a gamer

Posted: **Mon Mar 14, 2022 7:29 pm**

One thing you can count on … the quality of play in this contest should be comparable to the Hopkins-Syracuse game this past weekend.

DocBarrister

Posted: **Mon Mar 14, 2022 7:39 pm**

This is totally unpredictable. Both teams want the natty so this game might have some tinkering and experimentation they wouldn’t normally do and might give insight and knowledge to the coaches. A loss doesn’t really hurt either team so they will experiment with whatever tweaks they think may help them down the line.

Posted: **Mon Mar 14, 2022 9:34 pm**

Essexfenwick wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 7:39 pm This is totally unpredictable. Both teams want the natty so this game might have some tinkering and experimentation they wouldn’t normally do and might give insight and knowledge to the coaches. A loss doesn’t really hurt either team so they will experiment with whatever tweaks they think may help them down the line.

Agreed. This game is essentially useless They are both already in the tournament and the only benefactor is to see how matchups take shape; far too much time between now and tournament time.

Posted: **Mon Mar 14, 2022 9:51 pm**

youthathletics wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 9:34 pm
Essexfenwick wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 7:39 pm This is totally unpredictable. Both teams want the natty so this game might have some tinkering and experimentation they wouldn’t normally do and might give insight and knowledge to the coaches. A loss doesn’t really hurt either team so they will experiment with whatever tweaks they think may help them down the line.
Agreed. This game is essentially useless They are both already in the tournament and the only benefactor is to see how matchups take shape; far too much time between now and tournament time.

It could have tournament seeding implications. There's sometimes a pretty big gap in the caliber of opponent the #1 and #2 seeds each face in the first round. Would much, much rather be the #1 and the winner of this weekend's game will be the heavy favorite to earn that spot in the NCAA bracket.

2021: #1 faced Monmouth, #2 faced High Point
2019: #1 faced UMBC, #2 faced Richmond (lost to Duke by 1)
2018: #1 faced Robert Morris, #2 faced Richmond
2017: #1 faced Bryant, #2 faced Yale (lost to Cuse by 1)
2016: #1 faced Quinnipiac, #2 faced Towson (BEAT Denver)

The #2 seed has lost in the first round as recently as 2016. #2 Cuse also lost to Bryant in 2014. So it's not often but does happen. Not sure a #1 seed has ever lost first round?

A #2 seed also hasn't won it all since Syracuse in 2009 and has zero other championship game appearances since then. Meanwhile, #1s won it all in 2012, 2014, and 2017 and were runner-ups in 2013 and 2016, meaning they've appeared in 5 of the last 9 title games.

It's actually been much better to be a #3 seed than a #2 for some reason. #3 seeds have appeared in four straight championship games, winning two.

Posted: **Mon Mar 14, 2022 11:36 pm**

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 9:51 pm
youthathletics wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 9:34 pm
Essexfenwick wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 7:39 pm This is totally unpredictable. Both teams want the natty so this game might have some tinkering and experimentation they wouldn’t normally do and might give insight and knowledge to the coaches. A loss doesn’t really hurt either team so they will experiment with whatever tweaks they think may help them down the line.
Agreed. This game is essentially useless They are both already in the tournament and the only benefactor is to see how matchups take shape; far too much time between now and tournament time.
It could have tournament seeding implications. There's sometimes a pretty big gap in the caliber of opponent the #1 and #2 seeds each face in the first round. Would much, much rather be the #1 and the winner of this weekend's game will be the heavy favorite to earn that spot in the NCAA bracket.

2021: #1 faced Monmouth, #2 faced High Point
2019: #1 faced UMBC, #2 faced Richmond (lost to Duke by 1)
2018: #1 faced Robert Morris, #2 faced Richmond
2017: #1 faced Bryant, #2 faced Yale (lost to Cuse by 1)
2016: #1 faced Quinnipiac, #2 faced Towson (BEAT Denver)

The #2 seed has lost in the first round as recently as 2016. #2 Cuse also lost to Bryant in 2014. So it's not often but does happen. Not sure a #1 seed has ever lost first round?

A #2 seed also hasn't won it all since Syracuse in 2009 and has zero other championship game appearances since then. Meanwhile, #1s won it all in 2012, 2014, and 2017 and were runner-ups in 2013 and 2016, meaning they've appeared in 5 of the last 9 title games.

It's actually been much better to be a #3 seed than a #2 for some reason. #3 seeds have appeared in four straight championship games, winning two.

Interesting

Posted: **Tue Mar 15, 2022 1:04 am**

Essexfenwick wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 11:36 pm
HopFan16 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 9:51 pm
youthathletics wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 9:34 pm
Essexfenwick wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 7:39 pm This is totally unpredictable. Both teams want the natty so this game might have some tinkering and experimentation they wouldn’t normally do and might give insight and knowledge to the coaches. A loss doesn’t really hurt either team so they will experiment with whatever tweaks they think may help them down the line.
Agreed. This game is essentially useless They are both already in the tournament and the only benefactor is to see how matchups take shape; far too much time between now and tournament time.
It could have tournament seeding implications. There's sometimes a pretty big gap in the caliber of opponent the #1 and #2 seeds each face in the first round. Would much, much rather be the #1 and the winner of this weekend's game will be the heavy favorite to earn that spot in the NCAA bracket.

2021: #1 faced Monmouth, #2 faced High Point
2019: #1 faced UMBC, #2 faced Richmond (lost to Duke by 1)
2018: #1 faced Robert Morris, #2 faced Richmond
2017: #1 faced Bryant, #2 faced Yale (lost to Cuse by 1)
2016: #1 faced Quinnipiac, #2 faced Towson (BEAT Denver)

The #2 seed has lost in the first round as recently as 2016. #2 Cuse also lost to Bryant in 2014. So it's not often but does happen. Not sure a #1 seed has ever lost first round?

A #2 seed also hasn't won it all since Syracuse in 2009 and has zero other championship game appearances since then. Meanwhile, #1s won it all in 2012, 2014, and 2017 and were runner-ups in 2013 and 2016, meaning they've appeared in 5 of the last 9 title games.

It's actually been much better to be a #3 seed than a #2 for some reason. #3 seeds have appeared in four straight championship games, winning two.
Interesting

Great game between the clear top two teams but more interested in your handle as it were essexfenwick because I love both of those. Rumor has it (it’s foggy for me) I played Fenwick the morning of my wedding and I am want to jump into the carolers at the Gris. Are you out that way?

Posted: **Tue Mar 15, 2022 10:42 am**

Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 3:53 pm
HooDat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 3:48 pm Should be a great game.

Not sure even a lopsided score changes the rankings, "resumes" of the Ivy's or no.
The only way it changes for me materially is if Maryland beats UVA by 6+ goals.

Ok, unlikely, but what if UVA should beat Maryland by 6+ goals? I don't believe Maryland has the defensive personnel to stop Virginia unless they completely crap the bed. Maryland minus Grill vs same general group as last year. Probably, the same for Virginia covering Maryland O while missing #1 at Close D and the top LSM. Speculating, The difference may come down to controlling face offs, turnovers & goal tending,

Posted: **Tue Mar 15, 2022 10:50 am**

How can this game be anything but a one goal game?

The top 2 scoring offenses. LaxRef's metrics show just subtle difference.

Posted: **Tue Mar 15, 2022 10:52 am**

blue angels wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 10:42 am
Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 3:53 pm
HooDat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 3:48 pm Should be a great game.

Not sure even a lopsided score changes the rankings, "resumes" of the Ivy's or no.
The only way it changes for me materially is if Maryland beats UVA by 6+ goals.
Ok, unlikely, but what if UVA should beat Maryland by 6+ goals? I don't believe Maryland has the defensive personnel to stop Virginia unless they completely crap the bed. Maryland minus Grill vs same general group as last year. Probably, the same for Virginia covering Maryland O while missing #1 at Close D and the top LSM. Speculating, The difference may come down to controlling face offs & goal tending,

If UVA wins by any amount, they are #1. If they win by 6+, still may be hard for me to move Maryland off the second spot.

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