All things CoronaVirus

The odds are excellent that you will leave this forum hating someone.

How many of your friends and family members have died of the Chinese Corona Virus?

0 people
43
63%
1 person.
10
15%
2 people.
3
4%
3 people.
5
7%
More.
7
10%
 
Total votes: 68

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Brooklyn
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by Brooklyn »

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njbill
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by njbill »

Pete, the Donald is moving back to Jersey. He's one you can keep all 12 months.
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by Peter Brown »

njbill wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 11:05 am Pete, the Donald is moving back to Jersey. He's one you can keep all 12 months.


He’s all yours.

Let’s be honest: he fits easily in New Jersey.
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youthathletics
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by youthathletics »

Peter Brown wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 11:33 am
njbill wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 11:05 am Pete, the Donald is moving back to Jersey. He's one you can keep all 12 months.


He’s all yours.

Let’s be honest: he fits easily in New Jersey.
:lol: :lol: Funny thing, Florida is damned near South Jersey.
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
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CU88
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by CU88 »

When will hospitalizations start decreasing?

Katelyn Jetelina
May 2

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Currently, 21 states/territories have administered enough shots to cover at least 40% of the population. So, when are we going to see an impact on COVID19 hospitalizations?

Short answer: When ~56% of the population is fully vaccinated.

Here is the data-driven, evidence based answer…

Individual vs. Population

This distinction is key.

On an individual level, we know vaccines protect against severe disease (i.e. hospitalizations and deaths). In the “real world”, vaccines are 95% effective in keeping you out of the hospital (in clinical trials this number was 100%).

On a population level, this is more complex. The impact of vaccinations (on a population level) is much more difficult to see than on an individual level. That’s because there are three competing demands happening at once:

Vaccinations (which is good);

Wide-spread transmission in some areas (which is bad); and

Variants of concern (which is bad).

Here are some examples in the United States…

California

Vaccination rate: Moderate (31% fully vaccinated)

26.8% of 65+ are vaccinated (more people aged 18-45 have a vaccine than those aged 65+, which is wild!)

Transmission rate: Moderate (40 cases per 100,000)

New variants: Low (B.1.1.7. accounts for 43% of cases)

What does this combination result in? Hospitalizations are decreasing, but also are cases. In fact, they nearly mirror each other. The age distribution for hospitalizations reflect the distribution in September (green and red bars look about the same). Not enough people are vaccinated, especially among 65+, to see a population-level impact on hospitalizations.



California
Michigan:

Vaccination rate: Moderate (32.5% fully vaccinated)

75% of those aged 65+ are vaccinated

Transmission rate: High (432 cases per 100,000)

New variants: High (B.1.1.7. accounts for 67% of cases)

What does this result in? Hospitalizations mirroring cases. But, the age distribution looks different than their last peak. This is likely due to a combination of vaccines (making those red bars smaller) and high transmission/variants of concern (making those green bars bigger).


Vermont

Vaccination rate: High (37.9% fully vaccinated; Leading the country in vaccinations)

Transmission rate: High (106 cases per 100,000)

New variants: Low (B.1.1.7. accounts for 46% of cases)

What does this result in? Hospitalizations mirroring cases. But, the age distribution looks different than in early December. This is likely due to a combination of vaccines (red bars smaller) and high transmission/variants of concern (green bars bigger).


Texas

Vaccination rate: Low (27.5% fully vaccinated)

Transmission rate: Substantial (70 cases per 100,000)

New variants: High (B.1.1.7. accounts for 69% of cases)

What does this combination result in? Looks a whole lot like CA. The age distribution of hospitalizations looks the same as it did in September. Not enough people are vaccinated to see population-level impact.


Case example from Israel

The picture in the States are muddled. So, epidemiologists are using Israel to inform policy. Israel is the global leader in vaccinations.

Context: Transmission rate was HIGH in Israel during their vaccination campaign. Also, B.1.1.7. hit them hard too once they got transmission under control. So, I would say Israel was more reflective of Michigan’s situation. However, Israel was vaccinating at incredibly high rates.

A study came out two weeks ago and I just love how they presented their data.

Below is one figure key figure of theirs. Each row is a different age group (blue=60+, orange 50-59, green 40-49, and red 20-39 years). The solid vertical line in each graph represents when 50% of that age group was fully vaccinated.

Focus on column C (new hospitalizations) and column D (new severe cases). It’s clear that hospitalizations started decreasing for each age group once 50% of that group (actually 56% to be exact) was vaccinated


Dynamics of national clinical measures for different age groups: first row (blue)—aged over 60 years; second row (orange)—aged 50–59 years; third row (green)—aged 40–49 years; fourth row (red)—aged 20–39 years.
Bottom Line

We need more people vaccinated in the United States to see a clear population-level impact on COVID19 hospitalizations. It’s coming (slowly but surely).

Love, YLE
by cradleandshoot » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:57 am
Mr moderator, deactivate my account.
You have heck this forum up to making it nothing more than a joke. I hope you are happy.
This is cradle and shoot signing out.
:roll: :roll: :roll:
njbill
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by njbill »

Peter Brown wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 11:33 am
njbill wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 11:05 am Pete, the Donald is moving back to Jersey. He's one you can keep all 12 months.


He’s all yours.

Let’s be honest: he fits easily in New Jersey.
Not so sure about that. He did (or he claims he did) make Florida his domicile. He apparently is still getting crowds of fans in Florida (course they could be paid). Guarantee you he won't get friendly crowds in NJ. The locals hate him. Maybe some of that was the traffic issues he created which hopefully won't be repeated now that he's the disgraced former president. Murphy has issued a executive order that T**** is not to get any special treatment when he's out driving.
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by Peter Brown »

njbill wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 12:42 pm
Peter Brown wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 11:33 am
njbill wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 11:05 am Pete, the Donald is moving back to Jersey. He's one you can keep all 12 months.
He’s all yours.

Let’s be honest: he fits easily in New Jersey.
Not so sure about that. He did (or he claims he did) make Florida his domicile. He apparently is still getting crowds of fans in Florida (course they could be paid). Guarantee you he won't get friendly crowds in NJ. The locals hate him. Maybe some of that was the traffic issues he created which hopefully won't be repeated now that he's the disgraced former president. Murphy has issued a executive order that T**** is not to get any special treatment when he's out driving.


“The locals hate him”

Sure about that?

https://www.mycentraljersey.com/story/n ... 345865002/

https://patch.com/new-jersey/bernardsvi ... ster-video

https://www.nj.com/politics/2020/11/tru ... inner.html

He seems happiest in New Jersey.
njbill
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by njbill »

Oh, there are four or five people in NJ who like him. That's about it.

My money says this will be the last year he comes to Jersey for any length of time.
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Some people know things and some speculate based on whatever information they like in their echo chamber.

Was having drinks in WestChester with a close friend but at another house with a few couples. They were probably more for Trump than in N NJ. This is an affluent town called Pelham on the water just above the Bronx. One lady told everyone how she was a “bibliophile” so I was out on her quick. A guy asked me about something and leaned into discussing India which he hadn’t been to but liked telling me things about it that didn’t exactly jive with what I saw boots on the ground there compounded by another one having read the book and how it was like 800 pages or something. These are the money Trump people, the other side of my family w WNY MAGA type.
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by RedFromMI »

Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/heal ... ccine.html
Widely circulating coronavirus variants and persistent hesitancy about vaccines will keep the goal out of reach. The virus is here to stay, but vaccinating the most vulnerable may be enough to restore normalcy.

By Apoorva Mandavilli
May 3, 2021, 3:00 a.m. ET

Early in the pandemic, when vaccines for the coronavirus were still just a glimmer on the horizon, the term “herd immunity” came to signify the endgame: the point when enough Americans would be protected from the virus so we could be rid of the pathogen and reclaim our lives.

Now, more than half of adults in the United States have been inoculated with at least one dose of a vaccine. But daily vaccination rates are slipping, and there is widespread consensus among scientists and public health experts that the herd immunity threshold is not attainable — at least not in the foreseeable future, and perhaps not ever.

Instead, they are coming to the conclusion that rather than making a long-promised exit, the virus will most likely become a manageable threat that will continue to circulate in the United States for years to come, still causing hospitalizations and deaths but in much smaller numbers.

How much smaller is uncertain and depends in part on how much of the nation, and the world, becomes vaccinated and how the coronavirus evolves. It is already clear, however, that the virus is changing too quickly, new variants are spreading too easily and vaccination is proceeding too slowly for herd immunity to be within reach anytime soon.
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by Peter Brown »

1343F5F6-81E4-4F52-B16D-DAF523D00A93.jpeg
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by Brooklyn »

Biden: US will be in 'very different position' by summer in coronavirus fight


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... d=msedgntp


President Biden predicted Monday that the United States would be in a "very different position" by the end of the summer when it comes to the number of Americans vaccinated against the novel coronavirus.

"I've worked very hard to make sure we have over 600 million doses of vaccine," Biden said. "We are going to continue to make sure that is available. We are going to increase that number across the board as well so we can also be helping other nations once we take care of all Americans."

Biden acknowledged there is debate about what percentage of the U.S. population needs to be vaccinated in order to reach herd immunity, or the point when enough people are vaccinated to make the spread of the virus unlikely. He went on to plead with the public to get their shots now that every American over the age of 16 is eligible to receive a dose.

"There is a debate into what constitutes herd immunity. Is it 70 percent of the population, is it 68 percent, is it 81 percent," Biden said. "Right now, every single person 16 years or older doesn't have to wait in line, can show up and get a vaccination now. My plea to everyone: Get vaccinated now. Thank you."

The Biden administration ramped up the pace of vaccinations, and 56 percent of U.S. adults have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

However, vaccination rates have been trending downward and polls show that a considerable slice of U.S. adults do not plan to get a vaccine. A Monmouth University survey conducted in April found that about one-fifth of U.S. adults said they do not plan to get vaccinated.

The New York Times reported Monday that most scientists and public health experts believe that the U.S. will not reach herd immunity, at least not in the near future.

Health experts also warn that the virus and its variants will not be entirely eradicated until much of the global population is vaccinated, a reason why Biden has been under increasing pressure to share unused vaccine doses with other countries like India, where COVID-19 cases are surging.

With his comments on Monday, Biden sought to inject some optimism into the fight against the virus. He noted that over 80 percent of Americans over the age of 65 have received at least one dose of the vaccine, and said there has been no difference in rates across ethnic and racial minority groups in that age bracket.

Biden's goal has been to have enough people vaccinated that Americans can enjoy a somewhat normal July 4 holiday by gathering in small groups, but he has been careful to emphasize that the progress against the virus depends on the actions of the public.

The administration has tried to incentivize Americans to get vaccinated by pointing out the activities they can safely do once they are inoculated. CDC recently issued guidance saying vaccinated Americans can shed their face masks outdoors, except when around large crowds. Biden has continued to wear a mask in public, which has led to some criticism from public health experts that he is not sending the right message.





Wish I could be as optimistic as he is. With these right wing loonies refusing to get inoculated, this is going to be a very difficult goal to achieve. Perhaps if that nitwit trump would just them to get the vax they would take it and we would all be much safer.
It has been proven a hundred times that the surest way to the heart of any man, black or white, honest or dishonest, is through justice and fairness.

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Farfromgeneva
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by Farfromgeneva »

youthathletics wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 12:13 pm
Peter Brown wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 11:33 am
njbill wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 11:05 am Pete, the Donald is moving back to Jersey. He's one you can keep all 12 months.


He’s all yours.

Let’s be honest: he fits easily in New Jersey.
:lol: :lol: Funny thing, Florida is damned near South Jersey.

There’s a high probability that a overcapitalized concerted thrift bank in NJ or that tristate area buys the largest independent Florida bank who’s in Stuart fl in the next year or two. Has precedent. Valley National.
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That ain't even the half what they might do
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by youthathletics »

Brooklyn wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 3:01 pm Biden: US will be in 'very different position' by summer in coronavirus fight


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... d=msedgntp


President Biden predicted Monday that the United States would be in a "very different position" by the end of the summer when it comes to the number of Americans vaccinated against the novel coronavirus.....

Wish I could be as optimistic as he is. With these right wing loonies refusing to get inoculated, this is going to be a very difficult goal to achieve. Perhaps if that nitwit trump would just them to get the vax they would take it and we would all be much safer.
You clearly are not paying attention....shocker :lol: : https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19 ... id-vaccine

From mid March....“I would recommend it, and I would recommend it to a lot of people that don’t want to get it, and a lot of those people voted for me, frankly,” he said during a Fox News interview Tuesday night.
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by wgdsr »

njbill wrote: Sat May 01, 2021 6:41 pm I know wg has been missing hearing stories about the mega vaccination site in my town.

Well, as of May 6, the site will be offering walk-in appointments. At one level, that sounds good. But I think it is pretty solid proof that demand really has waned.

Only a few short months ago, we old fart seniors would have killed to get an appointment four weeks out.
while i was able to project this time frame, it really wasn't that difficult to do within several weeks or a month. even with production prediction shortfalls.

now, determining what the wait and see crowd will do? not sure anyone has any idea. another 20 million or 60 million peeps? we'll see. we're dropping like a stone right now.

if i were to guess, fda approval for 12-16 will come sooner than later, and this summer we'll be able to add them to the rolls.
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Brooklyn
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by Brooklyn »

youthathletics wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 3:26 pm
Brooklyn wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 3:01 pm Biden: US will be in 'very different position' by summer in coronavirus fight


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... d=msedgntp


President Biden predicted Monday that the United States would be in a "very different position" by the end of the summer when it comes to the number of Americans vaccinated against the novel coronavirus.....

Wish I could be as optimistic as he is. With these right wing loonies refusing to get inoculated, this is going to be a very difficult goal to achieve. Perhaps if that nitwit trump would just them to get the vax they would take it and we would all be much safer.
You clearly are not paying attention....shocker :lol: : https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19 ... id-vaccine

From mid March....“I would recommend it, and I would recommend it to a lot of people that don’t want to get it, and a lot of those people voted for me, frankly,” he said during a Fox News interview Tuesday night.




Dump says "I would recommend it"

But this is not what we need. Instead, "Fauci said it “would make all the difference in the world” if Trump urged his supporters to get vaccinated.



Big difference.
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wgdsr
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by wgdsr »

if it were that easy, congress could just do a budget reconciliation mandating vaxxes. we are 118 million people short in the over 16 category. if trump had that many people following his health advice, he'd be king until the cryo lab that houses his head is blown up.

https://khn.org/news/article/covid-vacc ... vey-shows/

there's a lot of factions. and there's a number of levers that can be pulled. the numbers have gotten better month to month if you believe polling is accurate. some execution in the face of covid numbers dropping, information disseminating and mandates lifting (for some, not all?) will drive whatever %s we get to. maybe some of the folks who aren't full of conviction on it just need to get bribed with a few bucks.
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Brooklyn
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by Brooklyn »

Is there light at the end of the tunnel?



Pfizer Vaccine Likely Will Be Approved for 12-15 Year Olds Next Week


News reports are circulating that the FDA will likely approved Pfizer/BioNTech Covid vaccine for adolescents between 12 to 15 years old either late this week or early next week.


The news is highly anticipated: Eager parents have been counting down the weeks since Pfizer announced results from its trial in adolescents, showing the vaccine is at least as effective in that age group as it is in adults. Vaccinating children is also key to raising the level of immunity in the population and bringing down the numbers of hospitalizations and deaths.


Although young people seldom experience severe Covid, they can spread the virus to vulnerable people, and provide a host for new variants that may be more deadly. It should make school openings more likely. In any event, having more of the population immune is a major positive.

Vaccinations have slowed to 2.3 million a day in the US. As of Sunday, 44.4% of Americans have received at least one dose of vaccine. About 56.3% of adults in the US have had one or two injections, and 82.8% of senior Americans have received at least one jab.



more ...
It has been proven a hundred times that the surest way to the heart of any man, black or white, honest or dishonest, is through justice and fairness.

Charles Francis "Socker" Coe, Esq
wgdsr
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by wgdsr »

Brooklyn wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 9:27 am Is there light at the end of the tunnel?



Pfizer Vaccine Likely Will Be Approved for 12-15 Year Olds Next Week


News reports are circulating that the FDA will likely approved Pfizer/BioNTech Covid vaccine for adolescents between 12 to 15 years old either late this week or early next week.


The news is highly anticipated: Eager parents have been counting down the weeks since Pfizer announced results from its trial in adolescents, showing the vaccine is at least as effective in that age group as it is in adults. Vaccinating children is also key to raising the level of immunity in the population and bringing down the numbers of hospitalizations and deaths.


Although young people seldom experience severe Covid, they can spread the virus to vulnerable people, and provide a host for new variants that may be more deadly. It should make school openings more likely. In any event, having more of the population immune is a major positive.

Vaccinations have slowed to 2.3 million a day in the US. As of Sunday, 44.4% of Americans have received at least one dose of vaccine. About 56.3% of adults in the US have had one or two injections, and 82.8% of senior Americans have received at least one jab.



more ...
well, that was quick. on time, really, and i thought they might take longer than a month as they are kids.

just in time. last 4 days we had average dropping 120-130k per day, which would be a drop of almost a million per day in a week's time. much needed.

there are about 4 million at every age. that's 16 million, minus right wing loonies.
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by jhu72 »

wgdsr wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 4:51 pm if it were that easy, congress could just do a budget reconciliation mandating vaxxes. we are 118 million people short in the over 16 category. if trump had that many people following his health advice, he'd be king until the cryo lab that houses his head is blown up.

https://khn.org/news/article/covid-vacc ... vey-shows/

there's a lot of factions. and there's a number of levers that can be pulled. the numbers have gotten better month to month if you believe polling is accurate. some execution in the face of covid numbers dropping, information disseminating and mandates lifting (for some, not all?) will drive whatever %s we get to. maybe some of the folks who aren't full of conviction on it just need to get bribed with a few bucks.
... we will reach herd immunity IMO. If you look at the hesitancy data (numerous sources), the % of "hard no's" is running ~10% nationally. That means you have to do some work or incent the others, but you can get to an 80% kind of number if you stick with it.
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