Baltimore: A Shining Star

[Typical Lax Dad]

Maryland students have returned to pre-pandemic proficiency in ELA, with students across all grade levels attaining similar or improved proficiency rates in comparison to school year 2018-2019 ELA performance. Results varied across local education agencies (LEAs), with a low of 21% to a high of 64% proficient. More students in third, fourth and sixth grades scored at the proficient level this past school year in comparison to the 2018-2019 school year. In the high school English 10th grade assessment, 53% of all students taking the assessment were proficient, an increase of 10 percentage points as compared to the 2018-2019 school year.

In mathematics, student performance has not returned to pre-pandemic levels. In fact, math proficiency percentages for grades 3 through 8 combined decreased from 33% in 2018-2019 to 22% in 2021-2022. In middle school,18% of sixth grade students were proficient in math and just 7% of students who took the grade 8 assessment were proficient. LEA results varied from 7% to 38% of students proficient in mathematics. The percent of students proficient in Algebra I was 14%, below pre-pandemic results of 27% proficient in 2019.

With national data indicating that grade levels were affected differently by the pandemic, an analysis of cohort data provides information on the performance of the same students over time. Nationally, an analysis of test results that followed groups of students between school years 2016-2017 and 2021-2022 in 21 states demonstrated a decline in middle school math proficiency rates 3-4 times greater than the decline in ELA. Following cohorts of students over time in Maryland, ELA proficiency has increased 4-5 percentage points between third and eighth grades, while math proficiency decreased by 24-26 percentage points.

“State investment in the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future, emergency federal funding, bold leadership, and the development and implementation of our strategic plan must provide the foundation and resources needed to overcome the challenges of the pandemic and ensure all students have every opportunity to thrive academically, socially and emotionally,” said Maryland State Board of Education President Clarence C. Crawford. “Just as we saw notable improvements between the early fall assessment and this past spring, we will continue to push forward and partner with LEAs in redoubling our efforts so that all students have the opportunity to master both ELA and mathematics skills for success in school, college, career and life.”

https://news.maryland.gov/msde/maryland ... p-results/

[kramerica.inc]

I’m not even suggesting going as far as voting republican. That will never happen in the city. I’m suggesting voting for the handful of new democrats who want accountability.

Voting for the dug-in party-line Democrats in Baltimore for the past 60 years hasn’t worked. They are the party of bigger, unlimited gov’t. Lots of programs. But zero accountability.

There was some new blood in the democrat party this year with a new perspective calling for checks and balances and oversight of education, budgets etc. But they don’t have the support of the Baltimore political shot callers. Because all that oversight would mess up their free lunch.

So the problem persists.

Spending per capita:

Baltimore: $2,649

Houston: $2,476

Boston: $4,180

Detroit: $3,775

NYC: $8,690

Seems to me that Baltimore has a REALLY reasonable budget. But yes, if I could wave a magic wand? I'd liquidate the Dem power structure. We agree. But since as you say, this won't happen....how do you help the residents that are dealing with corrupt and inept leaders?

Take those numbers with a grain of salt. Per capita spending is usually not used in education funding. They use per student.
Baltimore City is likely closer to $17-22 K per student, per year.

Again, for that money, start private school tax breaks and help those kids afford RPCS, Maryvale, Gilman, St Pauls', Loyola and Calvert Hall.

I'd also make a strategic hire as superintendent. I'd be eyeing the guy Michael Martirano out of Howard County. Guy has been phenomenal in every school system he has been associated with. Has sucessfully turned around every place he has been, all "types" of jurisdictions. Even has overall state superintendent experience in WV, which is a huge plus with MDs teacher's union.

[MDlaxfan76]

I’m not even suggesting going as far as voting republican. That will never happen in the city. I’m suggesting voting for the handful of new democrats who want accountability.

Voting for the dug-in party-line Democrats in Baltimore for the past 60 years hasn’t worked. They are the party of bigger, unlimited gov’t. Lots of programs. But zero accountability.

There was some new blood in the democrat party this year with a new perspective calling for checks and balances and oversight of education, budgets etc. But they don’t have the support of the Baltimore political shot callers. Because all that oversight would mess up their free lunch.

So the problem persists.

Spending per capita:

Baltimore: $2,649

Houston: $2,476

Boston: $4,180

Detroit: $3,775

NYC: $8,690

Seems to me that Baltimore has a REALLY reasonable budget. But yes, if I could wave a magic wand? I'd liquidate the Dem power structure. We agree. But since as you say, this won't happen....how do you help the residents that are dealing with corrupt and inept leaders?

Take those numbers with a grain of salt. Per capita spending is usually not used in education funding. They use per student.
Baltimore City is likely closer to $17-22 K per student, per year.

Again, for that money, start private school tax breaks and help those kids afford RPCS, Maryvale, Gilman, St Pauls', Loyola and Calvert Hall.

I'd also make a strategic hire as superintendent. I'd be eyeing the guy Michael Martirano out of Howard County. Guy has been phenomenal in every school system he has been associated with. Has sucessfully turned around every place he has been, all "types" of jurisdictions. Even has overall state superintendent experience in WV, which is a huge plus with MDs teacher's union.

good luck with that...Gilman has ~ 420 upper school students and is at maximum, no lack of applicants. No physical room for expansion even if they wanted to. I think that's likely true at most or all of those schools you reference.

Better investment would be new school buildings and campuses in the public system...have you been in any of the old buildings?

[jhu72]

Baltimore just crushing it in the school systems: https://foxbaltimore.com/news/local/23- ... -new-study

23 Baltimore schools with 0 students proficient in math yet Md. ranks top 2 in new study

We need to pray for them.

[kramerica.inc]

I’m not even suggesting going as far as voting republican. That will never happen in the city. I’m suggesting voting for the handful of new democrats who want accountability.

Voting for the dug-in party-line Democrats in Baltimore for the past 60 years hasn’t worked. They are the party of bigger, unlimited gov’t. Lots of programs. But zero accountability.

There was some new blood in the democrat party this year with a new perspective calling for checks and balances and oversight of education, budgets etc. But they don’t have the support of the Baltimore political shot callers. Because all that oversight would mess up their free lunch.

So the problem persists.

Spending per capita:

Baltimore: $2,649

Houston: $2,476

Boston: $4,180

Detroit: $3,775

NYC: $8,690

Seems to me that Baltimore has a REALLY reasonable budget. But yes, if I could wave a magic wand? I'd liquidate the Dem power structure. We agree. But since as you say, this won't happen....how do you help the residents that are dealing with corrupt and inept leaders?

Take those numbers with a grain of salt. Per capita spending is usually not used in education funding. They use per student.
Baltimore City is likely closer to $17-22 K per student, per year.

Again, for that money, start private school tax breaks and help those kids afford RPCS, Maryvale, Gilman, St Pauls', Loyola and Calvert Hall.

I'd also make a strategic hire as superintendent. I'd be eyeing the guy Michael Martirano out of Howard County. Guy has been phenomenal in every school system he has been associated with. Has sucessfully turned around every place he has been, all "types" of jurisdictions. Even has overall state superintendent experience in WV, which is a huge plus with MDs teacher's union.

good luck with that...Gilman has ~ 420 upper school students and is at maximum, no lack of applicants. No physical room for expansion even if they wanted to. I think that's likely true at most or all of those schools you reference.

Better investment would be new school buildings and campuses in the public system...have you been in any of the old buildings?

If not true for Gilman, the point still is, there are a lot of private schools in Baltimore City and surrounding counties who would love to grow their enrollment. All shapes and styles. I know CH and Loyola are expanding enrollment yearly. And Loyola also just added a new, expanded Middle School.
And then there's schools like St Ignatius Loyola Academy, Curley, Greater Grace, BL, and others that have open seats and some even empty dorm rooms.

Fixing or remodeling all the old school buildings is questionable use of money. It is the most expensive option. So be smart with it- First, renovate the largest, most centrally located buildings, then consolidate, then repeat that process, until all schools are modern and at their most efficient capacities.

[Typical Lax Dad]

If not true for Gilman, the point still is, there are a lot of private schools in Baltimore City and surrounding counties who would love to grow their enrollment. All shapes and styles. I know CH and Loyola are expanding enrollment yearly. And Loyola also just added a new, expanded Middle School.
And then there's schools like St Ignatius Loyola Academy, Curley, Greater Grace, BL, and others that have open seats and some even empty dorm rooms.

Transfer wealth upstream.

[jhu72]

I’m not even suggesting going as far as voting republican. That will never happen in the city. I’m suggesting voting for the handful of new democrats who want accountability.

Voting for the dug-in party-line Democrats in Baltimore for the past 60 years hasn’t worked. They are the party of bigger, unlimited gov’t. Lots of programs. But zero accountability.

There was some new blood in the democrat party this year with a new perspective calling for checks and balances and oversight of education, budgets etc. But they don’t have the support of the Baltimore political shot callers. Because all that oversight would mess up their free lunch.

So the problem persists.

Spending per capita:

Baltimore: $2,649

Houston: $2,476

Boston: $4,180

Detroit: $3,775

NYC: $8,690

Seems to me that Baltimore has a REALLY reasonable budget. But yes, if I could wave a magic wand? I'd liquidate the Dem power structure. We agree. But since as you say, this won't happen....how do you help the residents that are dealing with corrupt and inept leaders?

Take those numbers with a grain of salt. Per capita spending is usually not used in education funding. They use per student.
Baltimore City is likely closer to $17-22 K per student, per year.

Again, for that money, start private school tax breaks and help those kids afford RPCS, Maryvale, Gilman, St Pauls', Loyola and Calvert Hall.

I'd also make a strategic hire as superintendent. I'd be eyeing the guy Michael Martirano out of Howard County. Guy has been phenomenal in every school system he has been associated with. Has sucessfully turned around every place he has been, all "types" of jurisdictions. Even has overall state superintendent experience in WV, which is a huge plus with MDs teacher's union.

good luck with that...Gilman has ~ 420 upper school students and is at maximum, no lack of applicants. No physical room for expansion even if they wanted to. I think that's likely true at most or all of those schools you reference.

Better investment would be new school buildings and campuses in the public system...have you been in any of the old buildings?

+1.

... get the parents out of the schools and start failing kids again - let the educators educate. Outlaw the establishment of new private schools in the state (I'd really like to outlaw the existing ones as well - but not possible). We have to keep people from running from the problems they have created, and taking state tax dollars with them, which is where things are headed. Make it clear everyone is in the same boat. It's time to stop blaming the politicians (other people) for the problems.

[kramerica.inc]

If not true for Gilman, the point still is, there are a lot of private schools in Baltimore City and surrounding counties who would love to grow their enrollment. All shapes and styles. I know CH and Loyola are expanding enrollment yearly. And Loyola also just added a new, expanded Middle School.
And then there's schools like St Ignatius Loyola Academy, Curley, Greater Grace, BL, and others that have open seats and some even empty dorm rooms.

Transfer wealth upstream.

You're right, that's the only goal.
There's absolutely no benefit to getting these kids out of the city.

[MDlaxfan76]

I’m not even suggesting going as far as voting republican. That will never happen in the city. I’m suggesting voting for the handful of new democrats who want accountability.

Voting for the dug-in party-line Democrats in Baltimore for the past 60 years hasn’t worked. They are the party of bigger, unlimited gov’t. Lots of programs. But zero accountability.

There was some new blood in the democrat party this year with a new perspective calling for checks and balances and oversight of education, budgets etc. But they don’t have the support of the Baltimore political shot callers. Because all that oversight would mess up their free lunch.

So the problem persists.

Spending per capita:

Baltimore: $2,649

Houston: $2,476

Boston: $4,180

Detroit: $3,775

NYC: $8,690

Seems to me that Baltimore has a REALLY reasonable budget. But yes, if I could wave a magic wand? I'd liquidate the Dem power structure. We agree. But since as you say, this won't happen....how do you help the residents that are dealing with corrupt and inept leaders?

Take those numbers with a grain of salt. Per capita spending is usually not used in education funding. They use per student.
Baltimore City is likely closer to $17-22 K per student, per year.

Again, for that money, start private school tax breaks and help those kids afford RPCS, Maryvale, Gilman, St Pauls', Loyola and Calvert Hall.

I'd also make a strategic hire as superintendent. I'd be eyeing the guy Michael Martirano out of Howard County. Guy has been phenomenal in every school system he has been associated with. Has sucessfully turned around every place he has been, all "types" of jurisdictions. Even has overall state superintendent experience in WV, which is a huge plus with MDs teacher's union.

good luck with that...Gilman has ~ 420 upper school students and is at maximum, no lack of applicants. No physical room for expansion even if they wanted to. I think that's likely true at most or all of those schools you reference.

Better investment would be new school buildings and campuses in the public system...have you been in any of the old buildings?

+1.

... get the parents out of the schools and start failing kids again - let the educators educate. Outlaw the establishment of new private schools in the state (I'd really like to outlaw the existing ones as well - but not possible). We have to keep people from running from the problems they have created, and taking state tax dollars with them, which is where things are headed. Make it clear everyone is in the same boat. It's time to stop blaming the politicians (other people) for the problems.

well...I'd disagree re private schools, but I'm biased as a beneficiary of such. But I do think that they are NOT the solution for public education and I agree that they should not be a way to bleed off dollars.

Those who like to criticize public schools do not understand the realities faced, the crumbling infrastructure, the "requirements" demands leading to "teaching to the test", and the lack of parental support...plenty of parental criticism, but the reality is that many kids do not have two parents, much less even one with the time to devote to ensuring homework is accomplished, given the need to get food on the table, two jobs, addiction, etc. The trauma that kids face daily in their homes and in the streets on the way to and from school is beyond most people who post here's comprehension. And can you imagine being in a school without heat or air conditioning at times when needed, when you can't drink from a water fountain?

I'd spend double what we spend now, triple, quadruple and expect a positive ROI for the incremental spend...more kids graduating with actual competency translates to more productive citizens, less crime, less incarceration.

[Typical Lax Dad]

If not true for Gilman, the point still is, there are a lot of private schools in Baltimore City and surrounding counties who would love to grow their enrollment. All shapes and styles. I know CH and Loyola are expanding enrollment yearly. And Loyola also just added a new, expanded Middle School.
And then there's schools like St Ignatius Loyola Academy, Curley, Greater Grace, BL, and others that have open seats and some even empty dorm rooms.

Transfer wealth upstream.

You're right, that's the only goal.
There's absolutely no benefit to getting these kids out of the city.

Who said it’s the only goal?

[MDlaxfan76]

If not true for Gilman, the point still is, there are a lot of private schools in Baltimore City and surrounding counties who would love to grow their enrollment. All shapes and styles. I know CH and Loyola are expanding enrollment yearly. And Loyola also just added a new, expanded Middle School.
And then there's schools like St Ignatius Loyola Academy, Curley, Greater Grace, BL, and others that have open seats and some even empty dorm rooms.

Transfer wealth upstream.

You're right, that's the only goal.
There's absolutely no benefit to getting these kids out of the city.

Nothing wrong (IMO) with such schools providing scholarships to support kids who couldn't otherwise afford them. Convince private donors to do so.

But you're talking about well less than 5% of the public school population and all seats filled. Go ahead, no impediments.

However, taking tax dollars out of already struggling schools simply makes their issues worse.

Now, if you really want to make the situation better for families, then making it possible for poor families to be integrated into rich school districts by enabling those families to move there, that's indeed been proven to dramatically improve family outcomes, educational attainment. Don't bus the kids, move the families.

I doubt that's going to happen, certainly not at scale. But it does work...

So, too, is dramatically and holistically improving the social dynamics of poor neighborhoods through investment there. But it needs to be massive, something far, far beyond the capacities of the city's current tax base to do. And likely state's, though there are going to be some very interesting investments made in the Wes Moore years ahead...much of that, though, is using federal dollars to target such improvements where the gap is highest.

[Typical Lax Dad]

If not true for Gilman, the point still is, there are a lot of private schools in Baltimore City and surrounding counties who would love to grow their enrollment. All shapes and styles. I know CH and Loyola are expanding enrollment yearly. And Loyola also just added a new, expanded Middle School.
And then there's schools like St Ignatius Loyola Academy, Curley, Greater Grace, BL, and others that have open seats and some even empty dorm rooms.

Transfer wealth upstream.

You're right, that's the only goal.
There's absolutely no benefit to getting these kids out of the city.

Nothing wrong (IMO) with such schools providing scholarships to support kids who couldn't otherwise afford them. Convince private donors to do so.

But you're talking about well less than 5% of the public school population and all seats filled. Go ahead, no impediments.

However, taking tax dollars out of already struggling schools simply makes their issues worse.

Now, if you really want to make the situation better for families, then making it possible for poor families to be integrated into rich school districts by enabling those families to move there, that's indeed been proven to dramatically improve family outcomes, educational attainment. Don't bus the kids, move the families.

I doubt that's going to happen, certainly not at scale. But it does work...

So, too, is dramatically and holistically improving the social dynamics of poor neighborhoods through investment there. But it needs to be massive, something far, far beyond the capacities of the city's current tax base to do. And likely state's, though there are going to be some very interesting investments made in the Wes Moore years ahead...much of that, though, is using federal dollars to target such improvements where the gap is highest.

Show me a area that’s is thriving economically and I will show you kids doing well in school. We have replaced well paying jobs that provided upward mobility and some level of financial security with food service, hospitality, hospital “staff” positions and other professions that don’t move the needle. When good paying jobs were plentiful, my guess is the school system was better?

[jhu72]

If not true for Gilman, the point still is, there are a lot of private schools in Baltimore City and surrounding counties who would love to grow their enrollment. All shapes and styles. I know CH and Loyola are expanding enrollment yearly. And Loyola also just added a new, expanded Middle School.
And then there's schools like St Ignatius Loyola Academy, Curley, Greater Grace, BL, and others that have open seats and some even empty dorm rooms.

Transfer wealth upstream.

You're right, that's the only goal.
There's absolutely no benefit to getting these kids out of the city.

Nothing wrong (IMO) with such schools providing scholarships to support kids who couldn't otherwise afford them. Convince private donors to do so.

But you're talking about well less than 5% of the public school population and all seats filled. Go ahead, no impediments.

However, taking tax dollars out of already struggling schools simply makes their issues worse.

Now, if you really want to make the situation better for families, then making it possible for poor families to be integrated into rich school districts by enabling those families to move there, that's indeed been proven to dramatically improve family outcomes, educational attainment. Don't bus the kids, move the families.

I doubt that's going to happen, certainly not at scale. But it does work...

So, too, is dramatically and holistically improving the social dynamics of poor neighborhoods through investment there. But it needs to be massive, something far, far beyond the capacities of the city's current tax base to do. And likely state's, though there are going to be some very interesting investments made in the Wes Moore years ahead...much of that, though, is using federal dollars to target such improvements where the gap is highest.

Show me a area that’s is thriving economically and I will show you kids doing well in school. We have replaced well paying jobs that provided upward mobility and some level of financial security with food service, hospitality, hospital “staff” positions and other professions that don’t move the needle. When good paying jobs were plentiful, my guess is the school system was better?

+1

... the real problem is kids being taught too much black history and understanding gay people exist.

[a fan]

I’m not even suggesting going as far as voting republican. That will never happen in the city. I’m suggesting voting for the handful of new democrats who want accountability.

Voting for the dug-in party-line Democrats in Baltimore for the past 60 years hasn’t worked. They are the party of bigger, unlimited gov’t. Lots of programs. But zero accountability.

There was some new blood in the democrat party this year with a new perspective calling for checks and balances and oversight of education, budgets etc. But they don’t have the support of the Baltimore political shot callers. Because all that oversight would mess up their free lunch.

So the problem persists.

Spending per capita:

Baltimore: $2,649

Houston: $2,476

Boston: $4,180

Detroit: $3,775

NYC: $8,690

Seems to me that Baltimore has a REALLY reasonable budget. But yes, if I could wave a magic wand? I'd liquidate the Dem power structure. We agree. But since as you say, this won't happen....how do you help the residents that are dealing with corrupt and inept leaders?

Take those numbers with a grain of salt. Per capita spending is usually not used in education funding. They use per student.
Baltimore City is likely closer to $17-22 K per student, per year.

Again, for that money, start private school tax breaks and help those kids afford RPCS, Maryvale, Gilman, St Pauls', Loyola and Calvert Hall.

I'd also make a strategic hire as superintendent. I'd be eyeing the guy Michael Martirano out of Howard County. Guy has been phenomenal in every school system he has been associated with. Has sucessfully turned around every place he has been, all "types" of jurisdictions. Even has overall state superintendent experience in WV, which is a huge plus with MDs teacher's union.

The point I was making is that when you look at per citizen spending, it's plain that Baltimore isn't throwing money at problems. They have a modest budget by any metric.

And per student spending doesn't tell the whole story in a poor area. These kids are trying to learn in a war zone, with relatively little support from parents.

Really nice to hear you have a good superintendent in mind. Leadership matters.

[Farfromgeneva]

If not true for Gilman, the point still is, there are a lot of private schools in Baltimore City and surrounding counties who would love to grow their enrollment. All shapes and styles. I know CH and Loyola are expanding enrollment yearly. And Loyola also just added a new, expanded Middle School.
And then there's schools like St Ignatius Loyola Academy, Curley, Greater Grace, BL, and others that have open seats and some even empty dorm rooms.

Transfer wealth upstream.

You're right, that's the only goal.
There's absolutely no benefit to getting these kids out of the city.

Nothing wrong (IMO) with such schools providing scholarships to support kids who couldn't otherwise afford them. Convince private donors to do so.

But you're talking about well less than 5% of the public school population and all seats filled. Go ahead, no impediments.

However, taking tax dollars out of already struggling schools simply makes their issues worse.

Now, if you really want to make the situation better for families, then making it possible for poor families to be integrated into rich school districts by enabling those families to move there, that's indeed been proven to dramatically improve family outcomes, educational attainment. Don't bus the kids, move the families.

I doubt that's going to happen, certainly not at scale. But it does work...

So, too, is dramatically and holistically improving the social dynamics of poor neighborhoods through investment there. But it needs to be massive, something far, far beyond the capacities of the city's current tax base to do. And likely state's, though there are going to be some very interesting investments made in the Wes Moore years ahead...much of that, though, is using federal dollars to target such improvements where the gap is highest.

Show me a area that’s is thriving economically and I will show you kids doing well in school. We have replaced well paying jobs that provided upward mobility and some level of financial security with food service, hospitality, hospital “staff” positions and other professions that don’t move the needle. When good paying jobs were plentiful, my guess is the school system was better?

You don’t like the gig economy?

[NattyBohChamps04]

Show me a area that’s is thriving economically and I will show you kids doing well in school. We have replaced well paying jobs that provided upward mobility and some level of financial security with food service, hospitality, hospital “staff” positions and other professions that don’t move the needle. When good paying jobs were plentiful, my guess is the school system was better?

You don’t like the gig economy?

Appropriately named because so many are getting gigged.

Funny how it's spilling over into every aspect of work. you can make a few hundred to a grand or more an hour as a fractional C-suite gig worker. And to be honest that's more appealing to my OCD mindedness. Enter, hone in on a few tasks, crush them, then exit. Keep things from getting boring. But I have the luxury of not needing steady work.

[Farfromgeneva]

Show me a area that’s is thriving economically and I will show you kids doing well in school. We have replaced well paying jobs that provided upward mobility and some level of financial security with food service, hospitality, hospital “staff” positions and other professions that don’t move the needle. When good paying jobs were plentiful, my guess is the school system was better?

You don’t like the gig economy?

Appropriately named because so many are getting gigged.

Funny how it's spilling over into every aspect of work. you can make a few hundred to a grand or more an hour as a fractional C-suite gig worker. And to be honest that's more appealing to my OCD mindedness. Enter, hone in on a few tasks, crush them, then exit. Keep things from getting boring. But I have the luxury of not needing steady work.

I have been part of it on and off the last handful of years and don’t like it, the lack of a common intermediate/long term goals, the lack of a centralized repository of people to “play mental tennis” and share experiential knowledge in person that came as hoc previously. (The isolation) And with kids who are as young as mine are and my anachronistic mindset that people actually work in one place for more than 5yrs anymore I don’t like the lumpiness of cash flows. I’m not quite CFO level, could do it on a lot of sub-$500mm rev businesses except those often want more glorified controllers than financial strategy/F,P&A people which isn’t my strength of I have to start focusing on things that have ASC in it or similar.

It does provide a nice cross training window into different areas.

However neither of us are what I’m thinking of, more the breakdown of relationship between employee and employer, this is the last stage of it, and regulatory/economic arbitrage being offered to employees through this for the sake of short term margin.

Quagmire likes it

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KVFHkAzWAnc

[Farfromgeneva]

Red meat for the “mmm cities bad culture my way good” crowd

Older Offices Need Major Upgrades As Baltimore Ranks Among Cities With Most Troubled Loans

Baltimore is among the top 10 cities in the country for the share of its office loans that are troubled, a new report found, but experts say there is still potential for struggling, older office buildings to rebound.

Obsolescence Equals Opportunity, a Cushman & Wakefield report, classifies nearly 3% of outstanding office loans in Baltimore as troubled, the eighth-highest percentage of the markets it studied. However, Cushman & Wakefield experts downplayed the immediate risk of those loans to the Baltimore area's office market, despite the city having a glut of older office buildings fighting to retain tenants.

"We want to get ahead of this," said Mike McCurdy, Cushman & Wakefield managing principal for the Baltimore region. "We have to be proactive. We can't ignore the phenomenon, but we haven't seen any impact yet."

Placeholder
Baltimore's office market ranks among the nation's top cities for percentage of troubled office debt, according to a report by Cushman & Wakefield.

McCurdy met with his Baltimore team in February, he said, and raised the issue of troubled loans as "a potential concern downstream." Professionals in the Baltimore office weren't apprehensive about the impact of underperforming loans, he said.

"We're just aware that this is something that we need to be prepared for so that we can give the best advice to our clients at the end of the day," he said.

Cushman & Wakefield's report ranked 27 U.S. markets that have at least $10B in outstanding debt by the percentage of all office loans in some form of distress. Researchers classified troubled loans as lender-owned assets, loans labeled as potentially troubled or those classified as having troubled performance.

Orlando, Florida, ranked at the top of the list, with nearly 5% of office loans troubled. On the other end of the spectrum, researchers found struggling loans made up less than 1% of the Boston metro area's outstanding debt.

Abby Corbett, Cushman & Wakefield head of investor insight and an author of the report, said the researchers included information on underperforming loans to highlight variations in market conditions across the nation. The percentage of distressed office loans in the Baltimore area shouldn't necessarily spook investors, she said.

"I wouldn't say it's alarming yet," she said. "Three percent is still very low, particularly if you look at ... the historic perspectives of where we had trouble during the [2008 financial collapse]."

Yet the underperforming loans in Baltimore will be a factor to watch, especially for owners of older assets struggling to attract and retain tenants amid the flight-to-quality trend, which dominated office leasing before the pandemic but has accelerated since 2020.

Placeholder
Baltimore struggles with an abundance of older office buildings in its traditional central business district.

Leasing activity in the city at the end of 2022 demonstrates the ascendancy of the flight to quality in Baltimore. The year's final quarter produced what JLL's most recent market report called "a post-pandemic record-breaking quarter for leasing activity." Much of that activity was driven by leasing at trophy and Class-A waterfront buildings, JLL found.

Deals signed last quarter at top-flight buildings included Morgan Stanley renewing an existing lease for 196K SF at Thames Street Wharf and adding 46K SF. CFG Bank inked a deal to move its offices from Towson to 97K SF at Baltimore Peninsula.

The strong end of the year wasn't enough to offset a down year for the market overall. According to JLL, the Baltimore city market, which represents nearly 32% of the metro area's office inventory, posted negative net absorption of 263.6K SF, with total vacancy exceeding 20% last year.

Meanwhile, Baltimore's central business district, which has 11.6M SF of office space, posted negative net absorption of nearly 87K SF for the year, with a total vacancy of almost 23%, according to JLL. That is despite a state initiative relocating 700K SF of agency leases to the district in the fourth quarter alone.

"Despite the State of Maryland’s move to the CBD, the downtown submarket will struggle to avoid chronic vacancy, as move-outs and relocations continue to occur at a faster rate," according to JLL's market report. "To remain competitive, older buildings in the CBD will require significant improvements, which may not be feasible at the current average asking rent."

While older office buildings face significant headwinds, Cushman & Wakefield's report suggests there will be opportunities for those properties to rebound over the next decade. But to capitalize on that potential, owners of older assets must invest in repositioning those buildings, the authors said.

In areas like Baltimore city, where there is active leasing in the submarket dominated by amenity-filled modern properties, older assets can compete by making strategic capital investments in those properties, the researchers said.

The report recommends owners consider enhancements like adding amenity space, modernizing common areas and upgrading elevators. But researchers warn owners can’t make improvements in a vacuum. Any upgrades must consider what sets a building apart from its competition.

The Cushman & Wakefield report, which examines how the office market will evolve over the next decade, also urges property owners to be aware of post-pandemic thematic shifts.

Before 2020, according to the report, much of the emphasis in repositioning buildings focused on providing upgrades such as "spa-like" fitness centers, high-end lounges and state-of-the-art conference centers.

While those features continue to be popular, there has been what the report calls a "thematic shift" in the upgrades at properties stemming from the pandemic.

As a result, owners must consider changes like rooftop expansions, large state-of-the-art conference centers that shrink tenants' footprints, and spec or turnkey office suites.

McCurdy and Corbett acknowledged significant challenges to enacting those recommendations. Arguably the biggest obstacle for struggling properties is finding capital to invest in repositioning.

"Obviously, from a funding perspective, that's a huge constraint, and I think our goal with the report … isn't to oversimplify any of it," Corbett said. "It's rather to say, 'OK, these are complex things, but the more proactive you can be now, the better,' because ... there's no magic way out of having a potentially competitive or functionally obsolete asset anymore."

While capital investments are essential, any investments must align with the property's location and infrastructure, McCurdy said. If owners fail to consider those factors, they may end up with repositioned buildings and new distressed loans, he said.

"So those two things have to be aligned, and to the extent that they're not, there could be some fallout, obviously, in terms of owners that are not in the best position overall," McCurdy said.

[MDlaxfan76]

There's been some success, especially near the UMD medical center in converting older building to residential, mixed use. Which has all sorts of beneficial effects. I wonder whether such is being considered at some of these buildings...big challenge is combatting the perception of crime, but a concerted effort could handle that if there was an overall city planning dept decision to increase CBD residential.

The State's allocation of usage to CBD is a positive demand step, but mixing that with the opportunity to live right there too could be helpful.

[cradleandshoot]

There's been some success, especially near the UMD medical center in converting older building to residential, mixed use. Which has all sorts of beneficial effects. I wonder whether such is being considered at some of these buildings...big challenge is combatting the perception of crime, but a concerted effort could handle that if there was an overall city planning dept decision to increase CBD residential.

The State's allocation of usage to CBD is a positive demand step, but mixing that with the opportunity to live right there too could be helpful.

How old are these buildings? The prospect of rehabbing these old buildings is awesome. I love old buildings, they all all truly have character. The transition to residential is fraught with an endless stream of problems that cost huge money to fix. I can think of 2 right off the top of my head... asbestos and lead paint, common in older buildings and a financial money pit to remediate.