NESCAC

[JustOneTime]

Every year there are three or so teams that are left out of the tournament that have a legitimate case that they should have gotten in. Beyond that are just some good teams but not good enough. Teams that are left out are not going to win it all anyway. They may win a first round game but then they will be sent packing.
This year is no different and there will be some disappointed teams come selection Sunday. I'm not sure how the NCAA could change the format just to allow a half a dozen more teams in. With the travel restrictions they have it makes it tough.
As has been said right now the LL is looking good for multiple bids. The Regional Rankings are the key and we won't know those for another month.

[SaltCounty]

If LC does not beat Amherst - than the ODAC likely only deserves 1-bid.
+ you should factor in that RMC seems capable of pulling an upset on either LC or W&L this year.

Same with the NCAC.
Denisons best win is John Carroll
Kenyons is Centre
Definetly a 1-bid league

I think that ultimately creates a situation where NESCAC is guaranteed 3

That’s the problem. You’re carrying into it a name value bias.

They haven’t released any 2024 regional rankings yet, but here is an exercise using last year’s;

This year Denison has 2 wins over regionally ranked foes from last year- Albion and John Carrol (I don’t know where they stand in their regions this year). And 4 losses, all to regionally ranked teams last year (all of whom will likely be regionally ranked this year too)
.
Bowdoin has 1 win over a regionally ranked foe from last year, Middlebury (and based on their results, they won’t likely be regionally ranked this year). They also only have 1 loss, but it’s to a team that wasn’t regionally ranked last year (and likely won’t be this year either).

Denison > Bowdoin (at the moment)

If Lynchburg wins the ODAC, assuming the seasons continue as they are, W&L will ABSOLUTELY get an at-large. It is only slightly less true if W&L wins the ODAC, that Lynchburg would get an at-large. Hamilton is currently their only loss to a non-regionally ranked team, and with the way things are going, A. Hamilton may wind up being a regionally ranked loss based on the overall “down-year” for their region. And B. Their Stevenson win could wind up being a regionally ranked win as well.

Get past the whole, “but that’s John Carroll, and this is Middlebury” schtick. At the end of the year, one will likely be regionally ranked, and one likely won’t.

I'm not basing it on "Name-value"
I'm speaking from how those teams / leagues are doing objectively when it comes to the results.
An ODAC league that lacks quality wins against OOC teams runs the risk of being a 1-bid league.

You make a great point about regional rankings.
But are you factoring in the agreements that certain states / regions have for regional rankings?
For example, MA & MD have that agreement.
When Tufts beat ranked Stevenson teams in the past - it helped their regional ranking.
Surely that will play a factor (Positive or Negative) for some of these teams listed.

Not to mention - athletic depts have to apply each year to host an NCAA game.
This is also an avenue into the NCAA tournament.
When it comes down to those last 2 or 3 spots - teams that are willing and able to host raise their stock.
Especially when you consider the fact the NCAA fronts the bill.
So if someone is closer, or now more regional for the pod-system, they might win that head to head with another team.

[choochooCharlie]

Not to nit pick a little piece of this but centennial will not likely be a 2 bid league this year imo.

If Gettysburg wins it, Dickinson currently has a better committee at-large resume than any NESCAC not named Tufts.

If the devils win, Gettysburg with 2 regionally ranked wins and all of their 3 loses to regionally ranked foes, is well positioned too. Gets even better is Stevenson continues its trajectory into regional ranks.

[choochooCharlie]

I'm not basing it on "Name-value"
I'm speaking from how those teams / leagues are doing objectively when it comes to the results.
An ODAC league that lacks quality wins against OOC teams runs the risk of being a 1-bid league.

You make a great point about regional rankings.
But are you factoring in the agreements that certain states / regions have for regional rankings?
For example, MA & MD have that agreement.
When Tufts beat ranked Stevenson teams in the past - it helped their regional ranking.
Surely that will play a factor (Positive or Negative) for some of these teams listed.

Not to mention - athletic depts have to apply each year to host an NCAA game.
This is also an avenue into the NCAA tournament.
When it comes down to those last 2 or 3 spots - teams that are willing and able to host raise their stock.
Especially when you consider the fact the NCAA fronts the bill.
So if someone is closer, or now more regional for the pod-system, they might win that head to head with another team.

Fair points. Also, I just checked. I was wrong that Endicott wasn’t regionally ranked last year… they were. I don’t know if they will be this year, that now would hurt Bowdoin less if they are.

[D3LaxFan2]

FYI, the NCAC is in Region 5 this year, so it is likely that the top 4 teams in that league will be regionally ranked, along with some combination of Elmhurst, Illinois Wesleyan, Hope, Colorado College, or North Central.

Region 4 will be 5 ODACs, Grove City, and John Carroll.

So Kenyon already has potentially regionally ranked games against Dickinson, F&M, Grove City, and 3 NCAC regular season games. Throw in 2 more NCAC playoff games, and they'll have 8 regionally ranked games. That makes for a decent resume, assuming they win 3 or 4 of those NCAC games. Not sure it will be good enough though. We shall see.

[ChopMan23]

Not to nit pick a little piece of this but centennial will not likely be a 2 bid league this year imo.

If Gettysburg wins it, Dickinson currently has a better committee at-large resume than any NESCAC not named Tufts.

If the devils win, Gettysburg with 2 regionally ranked wins and all of their 3 loses to regionally ranked foes, is well positioned too. Gets even better is Stevenson continues its trajectory into regional ranks.

Not saying you are wrong, but can see both those teams dropping games in conference play.

[smoova]

You can talk about all the guys who have moved on and contributing to D1 teams, that is completely insignificant, Best on Best was not close, Middlebury is 0-2 losing to RPI and Union ...

To make matters even worse, Midd actually had 3 starters from 2023 return as "super seniors" instead of moving on to DI like their peers from Amherst, Tufts, Hamilton, etc. Not sure results would have been different if they'd moved on, but it's a curious data point.

Though the best of the super seniors—Luke Simpson—hasn't played a minute this year, breaking his collarbone in preseason.

True - he is unquestionably the best of the super seniors, but as others have discussed above, defense is not the problem this year.

[SouthieLax]

Not to nit pick a little piece of this but centennial will not likely be a 2 bid league this year imo.

If Gettysburg wins it, Dickinson currently has a better committee at-large resume than any NESCAC not named Tufts.

If the devils win, Gettysburg with 2 regionally ranked wins and all of their 3 loses to regionally ranked foes, is well positioned too. Gets even better is Stevenson continues its trajectory into regional ranks.

Amherst is 5-1 and has head-to-head over Gettysburg. I know you and LaxJack absolutely despise Middlebury, but losing to them is not going to be some sort of deal breaker for Amherst. That’s not part of the criteria (loss to an unranked team). Bottom line, the Committee isn’t going to put the Bullets in the field unless Amherst is in already (assuming nothing crazy happens going forward).

Endicott is absolutely going to be regionally ranked this year. And I agree with your point about records against regionally ranked opponents being important and how teams in the Midwest are going to rack up wins too. But do not forget a number of NESCAC teams will be regionally ranked as well. So the wins/losses against regionaly ranked opponents are coming for these teams.

One more point, Amherst-Lynchburg looks to be an important part of the puzzle.

[choochooCharlie]

I know you and LaxJack absolutely despise Middlebury, but losing to them is not going to be some sort of deal breaker for Amherst.

Now, now, this has been a civil conversation.

I merely agreed with other posters that Mid wasn’t as strong as some thought, they were too oft being given brownie points simply for playing in the NESCAC (where seemingly anyone has the potential to steal a game from another regardless of strength), and had not done enough OOC scheduling to suggest otherwise.

I think we can collectively agree that A. They aren’t as strong as some thought and B. Thank god they didn’t beef up their OOC, they already have gone 0-3 in it.

Amherst is 5-1 and has head-to-head over Gettysburg

the Committee isn’t going to put the Bullets in the field unless Amherst is in already (assuming nothing crazy happens going forward).

Head to head would wind up the tie breaker should they be comparable in resume. There seems to be this complacency in parts of the NESCAC, even in their fandom, that feels comfort in the conference building credibly merely by just existing in the NESCAC and playing each other. I would like to think fans and alums are hoping for more than that out of Middlebury, Bowdoin etc, and for them to earn their reputation prior to league play.

At the end of the day, I don’t want there to be the predictable conversation where, what seems to have been hoped for- 4 NESCAC teams in the tournament, then becomes the complaint that they now have to face each other in the tournament in any game other than the national championship.

[NNELax]

None of them are beating RIT at this point...until someone clears that hurdle it doesn't really matter

[Chipzhoo]

[/quote]

Thank god they didn’t beef up their OOC,
[/quote]

You continually whine about posters’ unwillingness to accept your assertions that you are a dispassionate, objective poster even as you continue to leave evidence of your bias(es).

Name the teams that have scheduled a better OOC than Midd this year in light of the 2 top 10 teams (RPI and Union) and 1 top 20 team (Babson) they have already played, as well as a third currently top 10 team (SLU) scheduled.

All the whining is boorish.

[choochooCharlie]

You continually whine about posters’ unwillingness to accept your assertions that you are a dispassionate, objective poster even as you continue to leave evidence of your bias(es).

Huh?
I suggested that Middlebury is in fact not as good as has been stated. I’m asserting that many posters here pushed back against that idea, only to be “made a fool” by Middlebury’s on field performance to date.

Name the teams that have scheduled a better OOC than Midd this year in light of the 2 top 10 teams (RPI and Union) and 1 top 20 team (Babson) they have already played, as well as a third currently top 10 team (SLU) scheduled.

All the whining is boorish.

While I did reference beefing up the OOC schedule in my last post, I think it was clear in the way-earlier discussion that what was spoken of was Middlebury needing more variation of OOC opponents. Sorry for including the word “strength” this time, thereby leaving that loose thread for you to latch on to.

In any event, off the top of my head, York, CNU, RIT, RPI, W&L, St Lawrence…

[SaltCounty]

Hamilton to 4-2 and Middlebury getting the win over Conn.

Thoughts on today:

Williams @ Trinity - If there is time for them to show some life... it's now. Off a 3rd straight win Trinity in an upset

Bates @ Wesleyan - Thinking Wesleyan gets back to scoring ways and wins by double digits

Tufts @ Stevens - Off a loss the Jumbos come out flying & win big in NJ

Amherst @ Bowdoin being moved will make for an interesting end of the year

Bowdoin will play Williams, Amherst, Wesleyan and Tufts in 11 days
Amherst will play Bates, Bowdoin, RPI, Tufts and Trinity in 11 days

[SouthieLax]

While I did reference beefing up the OOC schedule in my last post, I think it was clear in the way-earlier discussion that what was spoken of was Middlebury needing more variation of OOC opponents. Sorry for including the word “strength” this time, thereby leaving that loose thread for you to latch on to.

In any event, off the top of my head, York, CNU, RIT, RPI, W&L, St Lawrence…

You also said in the same post that Midd needs to “beef up” their out of conference schedule. They have 5 out of conference slots, and filled it with #4, #5, #8, #18 and Springfield ( a team they’ve played 40 years straight). They already play #3 in conference. So literally the only way they could make it stronger was to add RIT/Salisbury, something we have no idea if it was feasible.

You were correct that Midd was overrated in the preseason, congrats. It’s okay to acknowledge your take that their OOC schedule needs strengthening or beefing up was actually false. Otherwise it’s just trollish.

[choochooCharlie]

You also said in the same post that Midd needs to “beef up” their out of conference schedule. They have 5 out of conference slots, and filled it with #4, #5, #8, #18 and Springfield ( a team they’ve played 40 years straight). They already play #3 in conference. So literally the only way they could make it stronger was to add RIT/Salisbury, something we have no idea if it was feasible.

You were correct that Midd was overrated in the preseason, congrats. It’s okay to acknowledge your take that their OOC schedule needs strengthening or beefing up was actually false. Otherwise it’s just trollish.

Correct. The schedule doesn’t need beefing up, congrats. It’s lazy and needs more variation, which was clearly stated in the original post. Perhaps seeing the same teams year over year has contributed to the subpar on-field results.

[smoova]

Hamilton to 4-2 and Middlebury getting the win over Conn.

Thoughts on today:

Williams @ Trinity - If there is time for them to show some life... it's now. Off a 3rd straight win Trinity in an upset

Bates @ Wesleyan - Thinking Wesleyan gets back to scoring ways and wins by double digits

Tufts @ Stevens - Off a loss the Jumbos come out flying & win big in NJ

Amherst @ Bowdoin being moved will make for an interesting end of the year

Bowdoin will play Williams, Amherst, Wesleyan and Tufts in 11 days
Amherst will play Bates, Bowdoin, RPI, Tufts and Trinity in 11 days

Hamilton is tough to figure out this year - smoked by Amherst, then beat Lynchburg. Colby much better than I thought they'd be - Bernhardt doing a nice job with GVA's recruits.

Solid win for Midd over Conn after trailing 5-2 at the end of the first. Conn locked off Midd's quarterback (13) and it took some time to adjust. Forcing Midd's OC to make in-game adjustments is certainly a trend this season.

Agree re Trinity over Williams, but primarily because the Ephs seem to have cooled off significantly after their nice win over Babson to start the season.

Stevens coming off a big win over Wes, so primed for a let-down - I don't think they can handle the Tufts pace. Probably keep it close until middle of the second quarter.

Other than a "bright" spot in their close loss to Williams, Bates has not been as strong this year as I had hoped. I also see Wes running away with this one.

I was looking forward to Amherst/Bowdoin as well since it might have indicated whether Amherst's opening loss at Midd was a fluke.

[ah23]

You say maybe 2-3 bids to the NCAA's but besides Tufts, I mean, who would it even be?

Be serious.

What about Liberty? 4 teams? The meat of the schedules are about to happen...

Feels like it has to be a four-bid conference. Hard to see anything less unless someone completely falls apart/loses a bunch of games down the stretch. All of the top four teams have banked good OOC wins already.

[Chipzhoo]

[quote=choochooCharlie post_id=525670 time=1709775225

Are Middlebury and Bowdoin still the best teams now…

They never were. Just a bunch of hype and avoiding tough OOC. When they can’t duck tough OOC they fold like a cheap suit.

[/quote]

Been discussed on here for weeks. Middlebury avoids tough OOC competition. They probably wouldn’t have even played RPI if they had known they would be so strong these past 2 years.
[/quote]

Is “misunderstood” red or white whine?
You’ve trolled here. Multiple posts. Unsupported bad takes. Posters here accept honest takes.

[choochooCharlie]

Is “misunderstood” red or white whine?
You’ve trolled here. Multiple posts. Unsupported bad takes. Posters here accept honest takes.

Nice edit job, but like I said- the ORIGINAL POSTER (either reg, laxxal, or laxdad I believe) said Mid lacked variety in scheduling. I agreed and added that it lacked strength. That was before they had their abysmal start, so yes looking back, if anything they should’ve played a way weaker schedule. Congratulations (I guess )

I can assure you that variety of opponents was the original conversation. If you need me to dig the posts up, I will.
I haven’t yet, because your sensitivity toward these topics is duly noted. Don’t want you getting triggered.

[Laxxal22]

Nice edit job, but like I said- the ORIGINAL POSTER (either reg, laxxal, or laxdad I believe) said Mid lacked variety in scheduling. I agreed and added that it lacked strength. That was before they had their abysmal start, so yes looking back, if anything they should’ve played a way weaker schedule. Congratulations (I guess )

I've been critical of Midd's coaching (results fall short of the talent) but defended the difficulty they face in scheduling due to location. Another disappointing season in Panther Land regardless.