Lacrosse Analytics

[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Thu Jan 4, 2024 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

As the Princeton Tigers gear up for the 2024 season, the roster reflects both the promise of new talent and the challenge of filling the gaps left by departing players. With 49 athletes ready to don the orange and black, the team's roster is much smaller than last year's 53, which could mean a more streamlined approach to game strategy, but also less flexibility in terms of depth. This could be a double-edged sword; while a tight-knit squad can foster chemistry and clarity of roles, injuries or slumps could test the team's resilience.

On the offensive end, the Tigers face a significant overhaul. Only 49% of last season's offensive output returns when we look at total offensive EGA. There will be a lot of new faces in the box score this year. The void left by the departure of Christian Ronda, who accounted for 11% of the team's shots with a high 81st percentile in individual efficiency, looms large. The task of mitigating this loss falls not only on the coaching staff's tactical acumen but also on the shoulders of players like Coulter Mackesy. Mackesy's stellar 98th percentile in total production and a 75 individual efficiency rating position him as a likely candidate to spearhead the Tigers' offense. Additionally, keep an eye on Lukas Stanat. He had a very solid individual efficiency rating of 89 last season, so he could also step into a more prominent scoring role assuming his efficiency doesn't get squashed by more defensive attention. With last year's offense ranking in the 91st percentile for adjusted offensive efficiency, the question for Princeton is whether they can slot in the new faces of rework their approach to keep the offense humming.

Defensively, the narrative is similar. The Tigers return just 59% of their defensive contributions, as measured by game appearances. This statistic is a stark indicator of the experience that has flowed out of the program. While defensive metrics can be nebulous, experience is a more concrete metric. The departure of Ben Finlay, a cornerstone of the defense with 33 career games, leaves a conspicuous gap. The defensive unit, which was a force last season in the 93rd percentile, now faces the task of integrating new players into a system that has set a high bar for success. The ability of the returning players to mentor and the adaptability of the incoming talent will be critical to the Tigers' defensive stability.

Analyzing the incoming and outgoing talent, it becomes clear that the Tigers are at a pivotal juncture. The smaller roster could signify a more focused approach, but it will require players to adapt to larger roles and for newcomers to transition quickly to the collegiate level. Offensively, the challenge is to replace a substantial amount of production, but with players like Mackesy and Stanat, there's a foundation to build upon. Defensively, the lost experience is concerning, but it also presents an opportunity for new leaders to emerge.

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[laxreference]

This was originally published in the this morning's edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

In a thriller, Army earned a nail-biting 14-13 overtime victory against Syracuse, continuing their unbeaten streak and pushing their record to an impressive 4-0. Despite entering the game slightly favored according to the LaxElo projections, the Black Knights found themselves in a real fight, facing a deficit that reached 3 goals and a win probability that reached 8% at one point.

Turning to the faceoff game, the Black Knights' performance at the X was a significant factor in their comeback. Winning 52%, Army's faceoff unit outperformed expectations against a solid Syracuse squad. After accounting for the strength of the Syracuse FOGOs, that 52% win rate is a 90th percentile performance. It was a solid bounceback from their prior contest when they won just 47% (a 35th percentile performance). This was a unit that was in the top percentile through their first two contests, so this makes that 47% game look like an outlier.

Defensively, however, Army encountered some struggles, allowing a high 1.36 shots-per-possession. This figure puts them in the bottom 1% nationally taking into account the strength of the Syracuse offense in creating multiple shot-possessions. And it was a stark contrast to their first two games, where their allowed shots-per-possession number had them ranked in the 86th percentile. And it wasn't just this game, combined with their prior outing, their shots-per-possession number was 1.18 (4th percentile). That's not a good trend.

On the offensive end, Army's control and ability to avoid mistakes was a highlight, with their turnover rate of 25.6% positioning them in the 86th percentile. This efficiency against a tough Syracuse defense indicates a positive trend, improving from the 32nd percentile in their first two games to the 80th percentile in their last two. Such ball security has been instrumental in their ability to generate scoring opportunities and will continue to be a key lever for their overall offensive efficiency as the season progresses.

In summary, Army's latest performance against Syracuse was a rollercoaster of emotions, underpinned by a notable faceoff rebound, defensive vulnerabilities, and offensive prowess in ball security. As they look ahead, the Black Knights will need to address their defensive challenges while maintaining their faceoff and ball security strengths to sustain their winning trajectory.

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[laxreference]

Here's where we stand in the race for the "best resume" through this weekend's DI MLAX games. These are the Strength-of-Record ratings which are measuring the quality of everyone's wins and losses.

1. Duke
2. Maryland
3. Harvard
4. Denver
5. Army
6. Johns Hopkins
7. Penn State
8. Virginia
9. Syracuse
10. Notre Dame

[lorin]

Here's where we stand in the race for the "best resume" through this weekend's DI MLAX games. These are the Strength-of-Record ratings which are measuring the quality of everyone's wins and losses.

1. Duke
2. Maryland
3. Harvard
4. Denver
5. Army
6. Johns Hopkins
7. Penn State
8. Virginia
9. Syracuse
10. Notre Dame

So stupid, Duke lost to a team that did not make your top 10

[whaley]

I believe these strength of record rankings take into account ALL GAMES played (by all teams). It is the only complete way to assess the best resume. To highlight one game (one Duke loss) ignores all the other results that matter. One game does not a resume make

[coda]

Here's where we stand in the race for the "best resume" through this weekend's DI MLAX games. These are the Strength-of-Record ratings which are measuring the quality of everyone's wins and losses.

1. Duke
2. Maryland
3. Harvard
4. Denver
5. Army
6. Johns Hopkins
7. Penn State
8. Virginia
9. Syracuse
10. Notre Dame

So stupid, Duke lost to a team that did not make your top 10

So did Penn State and Notre Dame

[laxreference]

Looks like last night's game has pushed JHU into the "Work-to-Do" category and given life to Nova's at-large chances

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