LaxPower Back-Up Stick

Games through 4/28:

Summary of raw data used to create these rankings - missing head-to-head...

Comments: Obviously much left to do in the North, as every team on the list of the top eight in the regional ranking still have games left. Having said that, for LIU Post to get in they have to win their tourney and have things just break right (if possible) above it to get in - a true long shot at best.

Pace can get in if they win the NE10 - but it would be intriguing if they can upset Adelphi, but lose in the finals. Tough to say if they get in then without Mercy going down against Roberts Wesleyan...

Merrimack loss to Le Moyne today _might_ put them in trouble...but they would have head-to-head over Pace, so I am not sure about whether that knocks them out.

We shall see how the conference tourneys develop...

In the South, most is set in place (I guess I could have said in stone :^) )... Limestone has the #1 seed no matter what (and their game Saturday with Indy is the only South region game left in the regular season). If Indy beats Stone they might be able to pass Abbey for the #2 seed and the other South bye, but lose and they could drop as well. But probably not below the #4 seed, so should get a home game.

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out. I do find the UIndy/Limestone game interesting. If UIndy wins do they get the #1, only loss is to #2 BA this season. If they lose do they really fall to #4, only losing to #1 and #2? Can Tampa really jump them with 3 region losses? Enjoy reading everyone's opinions/thoughts.

HoundsDad wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 2:26 pm It will be interesting to see how this shakes out. I do find the UIndy/Limestone game interesting. If UIndy wins do they get the #1, only loss is to #2 BA this season. If they lose do they really fall to #4, only losing to #1 and #2? Can Tampa really jump them with 3 region losses? Enjoy reading everyone's opinions/thoughts.

No way they get the #1, even beating the Saints. They would only have the head-to-head, and almost certainly _every_ other category will be in the Saints favor...they would even lose the win percentage against teams with winning records (9-1 vs 7-1), even if narrowly.

Tampa has a better SOS/reg SOS, RPI. But Indy no matter what would have W/L, reg W/L and record against winning teams, while Indy's SOS numbers would improve. More likely they get to stay at #3 with a loss. (Even that would up their SOS type numbers).

Merrimack loss to Le Moyne today _might_ put them in trouble...but they would have head-to-head over Pace, so I am not sure about whether that knocks them out.

Final:
Lemoyne 12
Merrimack 11

bmorelax wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 5:03 pm Merrimack loss to Le Moyne today _might_ put them in trouble...but they would have head-to-head over Pace, so I am not sure about whether that knocks them out.

Final:
Lemoyne 12
Merrimack 11

Saw most of the last quarter - Mack had gotten up by a pair at 11-9 with just a few minutes left. They should not have given up that one...especially after going 21-24 on FOs.

As far as Pace - if they do not win tonight, they would be 13-4 vs. 13-3 for Mack, so they lose W/L and region W/L. Tied in wins against winning teams (4-3). SOS numbers a bit higher for Mack, and each is playing roughly equivalent opponents in the semis, so Mack probably gets the nod over them. Now if Pace beats Adelphi, maybe a different story - the two W/L would now be in Pace's favor at either 14-4 if losing to Le Moyne in the finals, or 15-3 if they win the NE10. W/L against winning teams a similar story (5-4 or 6-3 depending on the NE10 finals). I suspect Pace needs the NE10 championship to knock off Mack. But depending on how Mercy does in the ECC tourney - any loss there could allow Pace to take their place...

Did Coach Morgan have a time-out in his pocket at the end of that game like the live stats indicated?

If so why wouldn’t he use it on the face off right before the winning goal? His kid was clearly in trouble.

Tough loss, Leymoyne keeper made some big stops.

MCL22105 wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 6:10 pm Did Coach Morgan have a time-out in his pocket at the end of that game like the live stats indicated?

If so why wouldn’t he use it on the face off right before the winning goal? His kid was clearly in trouble.

Tough loss, Leymoyne keeper made some big stops.

looking at the boxscore play by play it does appear that Merrimack only used 1 timeout is 2nd half.

https://www.northeast10.org/sports/mlax ... plays#prd3

RedFromMI wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 2:00 pm Summary of raw data used to create these rankings - missing head-to-head...
How the numbers change after last night's games:
(only calculating the record changes)

Code: Select all

Rank	School (North)	Reg W/L		Ovr W/L		Win Rec		SOS	Reg SOS Reg RPI
1	Le Moyne	13-2(.867)	13-2(.867)	5-2(.714)	.561	.563	.639/#1
			14-2(.875)	14-2(.875)	6-2(.750)	
2	Adelphi		13-1(.929)	15-1(.938)	7-1(.875)	.556	.540	.637/#2
			14-1(.933)	15-1(.938)	8-1(.889)
3	Seton Hill	10-2(.833)	11-3(.786)	4-3(.571)	.583	.567	.634/#4
4	Mercyhurst	11-2(.846)	11-3(.786)	3-3(.500)	.580	.563	.634/#3
5	Merrimack	13-2(.867)	13-2(.867)	4-2(.667)	.535	.537	.619/#5
			13-3(.813)	13-3(.813)	4-3(.571)
6	Mercy		15-1(.938)	15-1(.938)	3-1(.750)	.472	.481	.595/#8
			16-1(.941)	16-1(.941)	3-1(.750)
===========================================
7	Pace		13-3(.813)	13-3(.813)	4-3(.571)	.529	.534	.604/#7
			13-4(.764)	13-4(.764)	4-4(.500)
8	LIU Post	10-4(.714)	10-4(.714)	1-4(.200)	.555	.567	.604/#6
			11-4(.733)	11-4(.733)	2-4(.333)

By Sunday this might just be a mess...

Is there any chance that a good UIndy result against Limestone, somehow boosts Rockhurst's SOS to the point that they leapfrog Queens? Some of you "numbers" guys might have a better handle on this.

RedFromMI wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 3:11 pm

HoundsDad wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 2:26 pm It will be interesting to see how this shakes out. I do find the UIndy/Limestone game interesting. If UIndy wins do they get the #1, only loss is to #2 BA this season. If they lose do they really fall to #4, only losing to #1 and #2? Can Tampa really jump them with 3 region losses? Enjoy reading everyone's opinions/thoughts.

No way they get the #1, even beating the Saints. They would only have the head-to-head, and almost certainly _every_ other category will be in the Saints favor...they would even lose the win percentage against teams with winning records (9-1 vs 7-1), even if narrowly.

Tampa has a better SOS/reg SOS, RPI. But Indy no matter what would have W/L, reg W/L and record against winning teams, while Indy's SOS numbers would improve. More likely they get to stay at #3 with a loss. (Even that would up their SOS type numbers).

D2 MEN: Tournament Teams Explained (with help from FanLax's 2019 D2 Mens Lacrosse thread)

Summary of raw data used to create these rankings - missing head-to-head...
How the numbers change after today's games:
(only calculating the record changes)

Code: Select all

Rank	School (North)	Reg W/L		Ovr W/L		Win Rec		SOS	Reg SOS Reg RPI
1	Le Moyne	13-2(.867) 3T	13-2(.867) 3T	5-2(.714) 3	.561	.563	.639/#1
			14-2(.875) 3	14-2(.875) 3T	6-2(.750) 2T	
2	Adelphi		13-1(.929) 2	15-1(.938) 1T	7-1(.875) 1	.556	.540	.637/#2
			14-1(.933) 2	16-1(.941) 1T	8-1(.889) 1
3	Seton Hill	10-2(.833) 6	11-3(.786) 6T	4-3(.571) 5T	.583	.567	.634/#4
			11-2(.846) 5	12-3(.800) 5T	5-3(.625) 4
4	Mercyhurst	11-2(.846) 5	11-3(.786) 6T	3-3(.500) 7	.580	.563	.634/#3
			12-2(.857) 4	12-3(.800) 5T	4-3(.571) 5T
5	Merrimack	13-2(.867) 3T	13-2(.867) 3T	4-2(.667) 4	.535	.537	.619/#5
			13-3(.813) 6	13-3(.813) 5	4-3(.571) 5T
6	Mercy		15-1(.938) 1	15-1(.938) 1T	3-1(.750) 2	.472	.481	.595/#8
			16-1(.941) 1	16-1(.941) 1T	3-1(.750) 2T
===========================================
7	Pace		13-3(.813) 7	13-3(.813) 5	4-3(.571) 5T	.529	.534	.604/#7
			13-4(.764) 7	13-4(.764) 7	4-4(.500) 7
8	LIU Post	10-4(.714) 8	10-4(.714) 8	1-4(.200) 8	.555	.567	.604/#6
			11-4(.733) 8	11-4(.733) 8	2-4(.333) 8

Also added rankings (within just this group of eight teams) so you can see how the changes affect order of each stat I updated...

After looking at the numbers I just posted, I suspect the field of six is set to what the regional rankings are - and only the end seeding _might_ change base on the tourney wins...

I have enjoyed reading all your posts this season, thank you. I am really struggling trying to understand how and why the Sunshine Conference has received so much respect. Top 3 teams best win out of conference is Westminster. And they all have a lot of losses. Lynn lost to Mesa. Tampa lost to Lindenwood and Assumption.
Not to mention, Tampa only played 2 road games outside of Florida. 5 total.
Better than that Lynn played only one game on the road.
I respect all the programs but not sure the process. NCAA needs to improve if they truly are trying to grow the game. I love lacrosse but somewhat bitter. I'm okay if you can prove to me the SOS is factual and not just given by reputation.

Tampa played 4 away games outside of florida. Not sure what schedule you're looking at. Lynn had 5 road games and flew out west to Utah to play 2 of them

Tampa played out of state: Belmont Abbey (loss), Lenoir-Rhyne (win), Lindenwood (loss), NYIT (win).

Lynn played on the road: Mesa (loss), Westminster (UT/win), Florida Southern (loss), Palm Beach Atlantic (win), Tampa (win) - two were out of state.

The reason that the SSC gets such high ratings is that really none of the teams are anywhere near the bottom... The two worse teams in my KRACH ratings are PBA (6-10) and ERAU (7-9) at positions 38 and 40 of 70 teams in DII (not counting the transitioning Brevard and Pfeiffer).

I don't understand the comment about the SOS - the NCAA tells you how they calculate it, and except for the data calculated Sunday just before the final selections are made, they actually publish the numbers. You too can make the calculation if you want to check...

I just went back and look at the schedules again and the games you are talking about were played at a neutral site. I was talking about official road games.

Tampa had two and Lynn had one outside of the state and the Sunshine conference.

I believe that Home games gives you a much better chance to win and should be considered in the equation. Road games are hard to win especially after traveling long distances. I am not asking about the SOS information provided by the NCAA, but what is behind the numbers.

I watched a lot of lacrosse this year and not sure I would put more than one Sunshine Conference team in the Top 20.

Laxinthemidwest -- I hate to mention it, but I think you overlooked St. Leo's win at Lindenwood.

On the other hand, I completely agree with questioning the SOS numbers and how they're figured.

The Krach ratings have Wingate with the #8 SOS, with top games against Mercyhurst, Mount Olive, and Queens twice.
Compare that to North Greenville: Limestone twice, Belmont Abbey, Mount Olive, Queens, Wingate, Tampa and Lynn, yet their SOS rank is #21.

Laxbytes SOS has Wingate at #11 and North Greenville at #30. That just makes no sense to me considering who NGU played.
Also look at Lindenwood at #28 (Laxbytes), having played Seton Hill, Indianapolis, Tampa, Mount Olive, Rockhurst and St. Leo (plus Mesa, Westminster and Maryville).

All that aside, I think the regional rankings have probably got it right, though Rockhurst should get a bump in RPI when Indy plays Limestone this weekend. Will it be enough to leapfrog Queens because of it?

Not sure I understand your reasoning. Neutral or not, I don't how 8-9 hour bus ride doesn't constitute a road game out of state. Or for that matter flying across the country to play at a neutral site, where the other team has a couple hour trip. So, just because someone is the HOME team at a neutral site, they are at an advantage, even though they may have traveled farther to that neutral site?

And there is no "behind the numbers." They are numbers, and not up for debate,discussion or interpretation. It's math.