LaxPower Back-Up Stick

(Sorry Red, couldn't wait any longer!)

Mt Olive loses to #1 limestone by 2 goals and they drop from 5 to 7?

No problem - I was busy this afternoon...

Comparison with some of the computer ratings:

North South Note: KRACH does not consider anything but record, and makes no distinction between in and out of region games. I am guessing Massey does not either. The others may - the LaxBytes rankings are their tournament selection probabilities...

Laxwarrior wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2019 7:27 pm Mt Olive loses to #1 limestone by 2 goals and they drop from 5 to 7?

Lynn has better in-region SOS, record against teams above .500, RPI. UMO very slightly better in overall SOS, better in region record (11-3 vs 9-3).

Lynn has a tough job ahead to stay there at #6 - they have to beat St. Leo for the second time in 5 days, and then beat Tampa for the second time in less than 2 weeks.

Completely agree with Hoolie. Personally, I hope Lynn can run the table and make it in, but it's going to be tough and I don't see it happening.

In the end, the conference tournaments will answer all the arguments this year:
-The two teams who play for the Conference Carolinas championship will get in. They won't take three,
-The Sunshine State winner gets in (unless it's St' Leo),and then Tampa gets in no matter what, because I they send their beach volleyball team to serve milk and cookies at the committee meeting each year,
-Winner of the SAC gets in (Wingate or Queens), maybe both if Tampa is the only Florida team,
-GLVC winner gets in (Indy or Rockhurst).

But if Tampa runs the table, and something screwy happens in the SAC, it could open up a spot for someone not yet on the NCAA's list.

The South region appears wide open. Limestone (and maybe Belmont Abbey) may be the only team(s) that can take a loss in their conference championship tournaments. If you consider in CC that Mount Olive will be playing Belmont Abbey Friday in a semi-final, and if UMO wins that game (which is actually a home game for UMO) that will put BA in jeopardy depending on what happens in the SAC, SSC and less extent the GLVC.

Queens has to beat two teams, that over the course of the last two weeks have beaten them in Catawba and Wingate (possibly) to stay in the tournament picture. Wingate could move into the top 6 with a win over Lenoir-Rhyne and a SAC championship. But, Lenoir-Rhyne could spoil the whole SAC contingent by continuing to win. LR started playing better at the end of the season against the weakest part of their schedule. So, the question is the better play from LR due to lighter competition or have they figured out what they needed to to continue to win.

As CPT_Hoolie points out the SSC is going to be tough for both Lynn and Tampa. St. Leo played Lynn tough just a week ago. The Tampa vs. Rollins game was a 1 goal game just a little over 2 weeks ago. And of course Lynn beat Tampa in Tampa less than 2 weeks ago.

The GLVC is the wildcard as it appears that only UIndy has a shot at a NCAA South Regional bid, but a closer look at the regional rankings shows that Rockhurst is lurking in the wings on this one. That was a very tight game last week between UIndy and Rockhurst. UIndy also has one more game after the GLVC championship tournament against Limestone. Rockhurst would need help from the other conferences, based upon what the committee has been doing to them with the rankings...

Yep as I see it, for teams hoping to go to the NCAA tournament, winning their conference championship should be goal #1.

White, it seems we were writing the same thoughts about the Rankings around the same time.

I laughed out loud on your quote on Tampa:

they send their beach volleyball team to serve milk and cookies at the committee meeting each year

What does limestone have to do to stay in top 6?

4/26 vs N greenville
4/28 if win above vs UMO/BA winner
5/4 vs uIndy

can they lose 2 and still get in?

Laxwarrior wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:52 pm What does limestone have to do to stay in top 6?

4/26 vs N greenville
4/28 if win above vs UMO/BA winner
5/4 vs uIndy

can they lose 2 and still get in?

Sure - they would have only two losses. Would take just the right combination of other team’s wins to knock them out. But they are playing for the #1/#2 seed...

Lynn loses to St Leo, so they are done and out of the playoffs. Too bad, but give them a lot of credit for going in as the #1 seed. I was hopeful (but not overly optimistic) that lynn would continue a very good year.
Tampa wins so they are in. And with Daniel Sparks injured, I don't think Leo has a chance, so Tampa is the one and only Florida team in the playoffs.

(Just opinions and predictions, so take them as that)

Could we see hurst jump to 3 with a NE10 semi final exit from Mack and wins over Lake Erie and seton hill?

I think dodger and I got it pretty close. The conference championship games are set, and the right teams have won so far. I don't think much will change the tournament picture now (unless Rockhurst comes out of the GLVC):

Limestone and Abbey
Tampa (with or without the cookies)
Queens and Wingate
UIndy

Any guesses on upcoming rankings?

Limestone still at 1

Does Tampa move up? 2 more in region wins.

Wingate in top 6.

My guess

Limestone
uIndy
Tampa
Belmont Abbey
Wingate
Queens

Laxwarrior wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:20 am Any guesses on upcoming rankings?

Limestone still at 1

Does Tampa move up? 2 more in region wins.

Wingate in top 6.

My guess

Limestone
uIndy
Tampa
Belmont Abbey
Wingate
Queens

I'll go with:

Limestone
uIndy
Belmont Abbey
Tampa
Wingate
Queens

Don't forget uIndy still has to travel to Gaffney to play Stone on Saturday in the final game with relevance for the 2019 regular season. Assuming the hounds don't pull of a major upset, Indy and Abbey will switch places for the final selection on Sunday.

Rick24 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:45 am

I'll go with:

Limestone
uIndy
Belmont Abbey
Tampa
Wingate
Queens

Don't forget uIndy still has to travel to Gaffney to play Stone on Saturday in the final game with relevance for the 2019 regular season. Assuming the hounds don't pull of a major upset, Indy and Abbey will switch places for the final selection on Sunday.

Does Limestone has a lock on #1 in south regardless of outcome of Saturdays game vs uIndy?

Does Limestone has a lock on #1 in south regardless of outcome of Saturdays game vs uIndy?
[/quote]

I think yes. Stone's SOS and their results against top opponents are stronger than Indy's. Despite a likely lock for the Saints, it's hard to imagine they will slack off on the game and forego the opportunity to close out 2019 undefeated

NCAA North

1. Le Moyne
2. Adelphi
3. Merrimack
4. Seton Hill
5. Mercyhurst
6. Mercy

7. Pace
8. LIU Post

Interesting final week in the North
With Le Moyne, Adephi, and Merrimack all in the NE10 - 2 will take a loss in conference play
Seton Hill and Mercyhurst will most likely meet in the GMAC final on Saturday
Regardless - I think the top 5 are in (although seedings may shuffle a bit) with the 6th spot up for grabs

Given Belmont Abbey beat Indy and has 2 losses against the The number one team in the country; if Indy loses to Limestone will Belmont Abbey move back into the number two position?

They should should they given SOS and head to head?

CharlotteLaxDad wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 9:17 am Given Belmont Abbey beat Indy and has 2 losses against the The number one team in the country; if Indy loses to Limestone will Belmont Abbey move back into the number two position?

They should should they given SOS and head to head?

I was just projecting for this week.

Sorry for not guessing the north. didn't ignore them on purpose. Really don't know them that well.