All Things Russia & Ukraine

[jhu72]

Putin can withdraw…… Senile Joe… nice.

RFK and his band of morons can't answer is how to accomplish what they're claiming is so easy.

If you stop arming Ukraine, Putin will advance. RFK and the rest of the "Biden is doing it wrong" crew can't explain is: how to get Putin to surrender and leave Ukraine.


Pretend both sides agree to a cease fire and to let Russia hold the land that they have.

Now what? Can't put NATO in Ukraine. And you can't keep giving Ukraine REAL defensive weapons to fortify this new border. Hoping everyone here is smart enough to understand why.

Putin can't stay in the newly acquired land from the current war. Pretty obvious from where I sit.

+1

[old salt]

Putin can withdraw…… Senile Joe… nice.

RFK and his band of morons can't answer is how to accomplish what they're claiming is so easy.

If you stop arming Ukraine, Putin will advance. RFK and the rest of the "Biden is doing it wrong" crew can't explain is: how to get Putin to surrender and leave Ukraine.


Pretend both sides agree to a cease fire and to let Russia hold the land that they have.

Now what? Can't put NATO in Ukraine. And you can't keep giving Ukraine REAL defensive weapons to fortify this new border. Hoping everyone here is smart enough to understand why.

Putin can't stay in the newly acquired land from the current war. Pretty obvious from where I sit.

Limit the support to Ukraine to what they need to defend & hold the territory they currently control.
Not what is needed to mount an offensive to regain territory, at a huge human toll, that is not guaranteed to succeed & will yield even less defensable borders going forward.

Freeze the conflict along the current line of control. Arm the Ukrainians to defend that territory, not to extend the war.
So long as Russia can't hold Crimea & a land bridge (w/ water supply canal), this war will grind on.
The assurances that Ukraine can take back Crimea in the forseeable future are becoming less confident.
We can't produce sufficient expendable weapons & munitions quickly enough for them to take back all their territory without depleting our own supply to dangerous levels.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Putin can withdraw…… Senile Joe… nice.

RFK and his band of morons can't answer is how to accomplish what they're claiming is so easy.

If you stop arming Ukraine, Putin will advance. RFK and the rest of the "Biden is doing it wrong" crew can't explain is: how to get Putin to surrender and leave Ukraine.


Pretend both sides agree to a cease fire and to let Russia hold the land that they have.

Now what? Can't put NATO in Ukraine. And you can't keep giving Ukraine REAL defensive weapons to fortify this new border. Hoping everyone here is smart enough to understand why.

Putin can't stay in the newly acquired land from the current war. Pretty obvious from where I sit.

Limit the support to Ukraine to what they need to defend & hold the territory they currently control.
Not what is needed to mount an offensive to regain territory, at a huge human toll, that is not guaranteed to succeed & will yield even less defensable borders going forward.

Freeze the conflict along the current line of control. Arm the Ukrainians to defend that territory, not to extend the war.
So long as Russia can't hold Crimea & a land bridge (w/ water supply canal), this war will grind on.
The assurances that Ukraine can take back Crimea in the forseeable future are becoming less confident.
We can't produce sufficient expendable weapons & munitions quickly enough for them to take back all their territory without depleting our own supply to dangerous levels.

Putin can always withdraw.

[MDlaxfan76]

Putin can withdraw…… Senile Joe… nice.

RFK and his band of morons can't answer is how to accomplish what they're claiming is so easy.

If you stop arming Ukraine, Putin will advance. RFK and the rest of the "Biden is doing it wrong" crew can't explain is: how to get Putin to surrender and leave Ukraine.


Pretend both sides agree to a cease fire and to let Russia hold the land that they have.

Now what? Can't put NATO in Ukraine. And you can't keep giving Ukraine REAL defensive weapons to fortify this new border. Hoping everyone here is smart enough to understand why.

Putin can't stay in the newly acquired land from the current war. Pretty obvious from where I sit.

Limit the support to Ukraine to what they need to defend & hold the territory they currently control.
Not what is needed to mount an offensive to regain territory, at a huge human toll, that is not guaranteed to succeed & will yield even less defensable borders going forward.

Freeze the conflict along the current line of control. Arm the Ukrainians to defend that territory, not to extend the war.
So long as Russia can't hold Crimea & a land bridge (w/ water supply canal), this war will grind on.
The assurances that Ukraine can take back Crimea in the forseeable future are becoming less confident.
We can't produce sufficient expendable weapons & munitions quickly enough for them to take back all their territory without depleting our own supply to dangerous levels.

Putin can always withdraw.

nah, that would be bad.
They earned that territory and those children fair and square...

[CU88a]

More civilian deaths from Russian bombs into apartments.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ro-attack/

Russian attacks hit cities around Ukraine, killing at least 23 people, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday. In Kyiv, authorities said the capital came under the first missile attack since early March.

A strike on an apartment building in the central city of Uman killed at least 20 people, Ukraine’s Internal Affairs Ministry said. And in Dnipro, a young woman and a child were killed, the regional governor said. As air raid sirens sounded around the country,

[old salt]

While A-10's remain too vulnerable to be used in Ukraine for close air support, they could someday be useful there as drone killers & even cruise missile interceptors, so long as they remain beyond or below the range of Russian SAM's.

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023 ... ia/385727/

Air Forces Central aims to experiment with the A-10’s ability to shoot down enemy drones. Since the A-10 lacks a radar, officials plan to use a network of U.S. and allied radars to guide the attack jets to their uncrewed targets. The Warthog could then use its infrared targeting pod to engage a drone with heat-seeking missiles or laser-guided rockets,

[DocBarrister]

Russians have been claiming for days now that Ukraine tried to assassinate Putin with a ridiculous staged drone “attack” on the Kremlin.

Which leads me to believe that the Kremlin will be stepping up efforts to assassinate President Zelensky, using the staged attack as an excuse.

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

Looks like Ukraine may win the battle for Bakhmut.

The leader of Russia's Wagner Group has threatened to withdraw his troops from the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut by Wednesday, in a row over ammunition.

His statement came after he posted a gruesome video of him walking among dead fighters' bodies, asking defence officials for more supplies.

Russia has been trying to capture the city for months, despite its questionable strategic value.

Yevgeny Prigozhin pinned his decision squarely on the defence ministry.

… "Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where is the... ammunition?... They came here as volunteers and die for you to fatten yourselves in your mahogany offices."

Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov have often been the focus for Prigozhin's anger.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65493008.amp

We’ll see if Prigozhin carries out his threat to leave.

DocBarrister

[Typical Lax Dad]

Looks like Ukraine may win the battle for Bakhmut.

The leader of Russia's Wagner Group has threatened to withdraw his troops from the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut by Wednesday, in a row over ammunition.

His statement came after he posted a gruesome video of him walking among dead fighters' bodies, asking defence officials for more supplies.

Russia has been trying to capture the city for months, despite its questionable strategic value.

Yevgeny Prigozhin pinned his decision squarely on the defence ministry.

… "Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where is the... ammunition?... They came here as volunteers and die for you to fatten yourselves in your mahogany offices."

Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov have often been the focus for Prigozhin's anger.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65493008.amp

We’ll see if Prigozhin carries out his threat to leave.

DocBarrister

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ru ... index.html

Biden needs to stop this nonsense.

[PizzaSnake]

Looks like Ukraine may win the battle for Bakhmut.

The leader of Russia's Wagner Group has threatened to withdraw his troops from the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut by Wednesday, in a row over ammunition.

His statement came after he posted a gruesome video of him walking among dead fighters' bodies, asking defence officials for more supplies.

Russia has been trying to capture the city for months, despite its questionable strategic value.

Yevgeny Prigozhin pinned his decision squarely on the defence ministry.

… "Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where is the... ammunition?... They came here as volunteers and die for you to fatten yourselves in your mahogany offices."

Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov have often been the focus for Prigozhin's anger.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65493008.amp

We’ll see if Prigozhin carries out his threat to leave.

DocBarrister

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ru ... index.html

Biden needs to stop this nonsense.

Which part? The indiscriminate murder of Ukrainians?

Or Putin?

[old salt]

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023 ... ay/386003/

Without A New Draft, Russian Offensive Operations Are Over, US Intel Chiefs Say
It could take a decade before Russian ground forces are back to where they were before the war.
by Patrick Tucker, MAY 4, 2023

Russian efforts to seize more Ukrainian territory are likely doomed unless the Kremlin manages to launch another draft, U.S. intelligence chiefs told lawmakers on Thursday, adding that Russia’s ground forces will in any case need years to rebuild.

“If Russia does not initiate a mandatory mobilization and secure substantial third-party ammunition supplies beyond existing deliveries, from Iran and others, it will be increasingly challenging for them to sustain even modest offensive operations,” Avril Haines, who heads the Office of the Director of National Intelligence or ODNI, told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Gen. Scott Berrier, who heads the Defense Intelligence Agency, or DIA, confirmed the analysis. “The reorganization that the Russian military took in the early 2000s meant that they were better, faster, smaller…from what they were in the Soviet era. That army largely is gone and they're relying on reserves and reserve equipment, older Soviet-era kinds of kit. It's gonna take them a while to build back to more advanced kit. The estimates go from five to 10 years based on how sanctions affect them.”

Many observers of the Russian military in Europe and in Washington have argued that a second mobilization would be nearly impossible for Russia to undertake successfully and would put Russian President Vladimir Putin in a politically perilous position.

Haines and Berrier’s remarks follow April statements from Gen. Chris Cavoli, who heads U.S. European Command. Cavoli told lawmakers that Russian ground forces had been degraded “somewhat” but that Russian nuclear forces, including bombers and submarines, remained untouched by the war.

Some pro-Russian voices on Twitter framed Cavoli’s comments as an indication that war has not affected Russian forces and that Russia retained the advantage in the conflict.

Berrier said his analysis of the situation was “very, very similar” to Cavoli’s in thatRussia remained an “existential threat with a nuclear arsenal that they have.”

Haines said Putin likely still aims to destroy Ukraine as a free, independent nation but that the Russian leader recognizes he won’t be able to achieve that objective anytime soon. “We assess that Putin probably has scaled back his immediate ambitions to consolidate control of the occupied territory in eastern and southern Ukraine, and ensuring that Ukraine will never become a NATO ally,” she said. He “may be willing to claim at least a temporary victory based on roughly the territory he is occupying.”

But while Putin may have hit a wall in Ukraine, Russian forces are branching out elsewhere. Last week, Cavoli testified that Russian submarine activity had been increasing in some parts of the Atlantic. Lt. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, who leads Air Forces Central Command, recently told Defense One that Russian pilots over Syria are trying to goad U.S. pilots into dogfights.

Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., asked Berrier and Haines about such actions. “Are there other instances of growing Russian aggression and…what's the intelligence community's assessment for why Russia has grown increasingly aggressive in these ways?”

Haines asked to respond in closed session.

[SCLaxAttack]

Don't know how it could be done (Turkey?), but would Ukraine sacrifice its lost territory for a guarantee of full NATO membership?

[a fan]

Don't know how it could be done (Turkey?), but would Ukraine sacrifice its lost territory for a guarantee of full NATO membership?

They won't do that, imo. They're digging their heels in, and every time Putin lobs bombs at apartment complexes, you can add to the time Ukraine is willing to wait to take that land back. It's like asking America to "just give up Texas" to Putin.

And they can't become a NATO member so long as Putin is holding the Ukrainian land grabbed in the current war.

Russia has to leave. No other path makes sense, imo.

[old salt]

Don't know how it could be done (Turkey?), but would Ukraine sacrifice its lost territory for a guarantee of full NATO membership?

Ukraine may accept that as a face saving way to end the war but I don't think all NATO members would vote to accept them yet.
Hungary & Turkey still won't accept Sweden.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Don't know how it could be done (Turkey?), but would Ukraine sacrifice its lost territory for a guarantee of full NATO membership?

Ukraine may accept that as a face saving way to end the war but I don't think all NATO members would vote to accept them yet.
Hungary & Turkey still won't accept Sweden.

[old salt]

Don't know how it could be done (Turkey?), but would Ukraine sacrifice its lost territory for a guarantee of full NATO membership?

Ukraine may accept that as a face saving way to end the war but I don't think all NATO members would vote to accept them yet.
Hungary & Turkey still won't accept Sweden.

You may find this a laughing matter, but Ukraine can't tolerate this level of casualties indefinitely, the west can't produce & provide sufficient munitions to sustain Ukraine's burn rate, & there's a limit to the amount & duration of military aid that the west can or will provide.
This war will likely stall out & conclude as a frozen conflict following Ukraine's coming offensive.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Don't know how it could be done (Turkey?), but would Ukraine sacrifice its lost territory for a guarantee of full NATO membership?

Ukraine may accept that as a face saving way to end the war but I don't think all NATO members would vote to accept them yet.
Hungary & Turkey still won't accept Sweden.

You may find this a laughing matter, but Ukraine can't tolerate this level of casualties indefinitely, the west can't produce & provide sufficient munitions to sustain Ukraine's burn rate, & there's a limit to the amount & duration of military aid that the west can or will provide.
This war will likely stall out & conclude as a frozen conflict following Ukraine's coming offensive.

I find your position a laughing matter

[old salt]

Don't know how it could be done (Turkey?), but would Ukraine sacrifice its lost territory for a guarantee of full NATO membership?

Ukraine may accept that as a face saving way to end the war but I don't think all NATO members would vote to accept them yet.
Hungary & Turkey still won't accept Sweden.

You may find this a laughing matter, but Ukraine can't tolerate this level of casualties indefinitely, the west can't produce & provide sufficient munitions to sustain Ukraine's burn rate, & there's a limit to the amount & duration of military aid that the west can or will provide.
This war will likely stall out & conclude as a frozen conflict following Ukraine's coming offensive.

I find your position a laughing matter

Explain. What part do you find humorous ?

[MDlaxfan76]

Don't know how it could be done (Turkey?), but would Ukraine sacrifice its lost territory for a guarantee of full NATO membership?

Ukraine may accept that as a face saving way to end the war but I don't think all NATO members would vote to accept them yet.
Hungary & Turkey still won't accept Sweden.

You may find this a laughing matter, but Ukraine can't tolerate this level of casualties indefinitely, the west can't produce & provide sufficient munitions to sustain Ukraine's burn rate, & there's a limit to the amount & duration of military aid that the west can or will provide.
This war will likely stall out & conclude as a frozen conflict following Ukraine's coming offensive.

I find your position a laughing matter

Explain. What part do you find humorous ?

Salty, I should let TLD explain, and I'm sure he will, but you've been a doomsayer on Ukraine's capabilities and the West's resolve from early days, and on, almost as if you've been rooting for their failure, or, conversely, rooting for at least partial Russian success. Or maybe it's Biden's failure.

You've been wrong about, way underestimating, Ukrainian and Western resolve. You still are, though it's fair to say that at every step it's been reasonable to wonder how much resolve, resilience, etc could possibly be sustained...but you've always been on the gross underestimation side.

And you have advocated, repeatedly, for resolutions that 1) would leave Putin with a third of Ukraine 2) would leave Russian war crimes unpunished 3) would leave Ukraine unprotected from further assault from Russia other than through the continued financial support of the West...except you appear to want that to end, or predict it will end...all in the face of Putin's clearly going to continue the aggression until his objectives to wipe out Ukraine are accomplished.

Moreover, you (and yes a lot of other military pundits) have been strikingly wrong about Ukraine's battlefield effectiveness versus Russia's unexpected ineptness. There's been a large gap, and there's no reason (at least IMO) to expect that gap to lessen as Ukraine gets increasingly supplied with more and more advanced capabilities, integrates that weaponry into their capabilities and tactics whereas Russia becomes exhausted in its own best capabilities, unable to produce replacements for it's expended capabilities.

And you seem to be advocating for all this before the Ukrainian counteroffensive has even begun!

But hey, forget about joining NATO...

It's laughable.

TLD's take may be different than mine.

But you're free to explain, correct, etc any of the above.

[SCLaxAttack]

Don't know how it could be done (Turkey?), but would Ukraine sacrifice its lost territory for a guarantee of full NATO membership?

Ukraine may accept that as a face saving way to end the war but I don't think all NATO members would vote to accept them yet.
Hungary & Turkey still won't accept Sweden.

You may find this a laughing matter, but Ukraine can't tolerate this level of casualties indefinitely, the west can't produce & provide sufficient munitions to sustain Ukraine's burn rate, & there's a limit to the amount & duration of military aid that the west can or will provide.
This war will likely stall out & conclude as a frozen conflict following Ukraine's coming offensive.

I find your position a laughing matter

Explain. What part do you find humorous ?

Salty, I should let TLD explain, and I'm sure he will, but you've been a doomsayer on Ukraine's capabilities and the West's resolve from early days, and on, almost as if you've been rooting for their failure, or, conversely, rooting for at least partial Russian success. Or maybe it's Biden's failure.

You've been wrong about, way underestimating, Ukrainian and Western resolve. You still are, though it's fair to say that at every step it's been reasonable to wonder how much resolve, resilience, etc could possibly be sustained...but you've always been on the gross underestimation side.

And you have advocated, repeatedly, for resolutions that 1) would leave Putin with a third of Ukraine 2) would leave Russian war crimes unpunished 3) would leave Ukraine unprotected from further assault from Russia other than through the continued financial support of the West...except you appear to want that to end, or predict it will end...all in the face of Putin's clearly going to continue the aggression until his objectives to wipe out Ukraine are accomplished.

Moreover, you (and yes a lot of other military pundits) have been strikingly wrong about Ukraine's battlefield effectiveness versus Russia's unexpected ineptness. There's been a large gap, and there's no reason (at least IMO) to expect that gap to lessen as Ukraine gets increasingly supplied with more and more advanced capabilities, integrates that weaponry into their capabilities and tactics whereas Russia becomes exhausted in its own best capabilities, unable to produce replacements for it's expended capabilities.

And you seem to be advocating for all this before the Ukrainian counteroffensive has even begun!

But hey, forget about joining NATO...

It's laughable.

TLD's take may be different than mine.

But you're free to explain, correct, etc any of the above.

Salty, I think it's curious you positioned my scenario as face saving for only Ukraine, as I brought it up as face saving for both sides. Ukraine gets the safety of the NATO umbrella while Russia gets to say it "liberated" the Russian people of Eastern Ukraine, created a larger buffer and a land bridge to Crimean ports that are henceforth acknowledged by Ukraine as being part of Russia.